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A Streamflow Statistics (StreamStats) Web Application for Ohio

A StreamStats Web application was developed for Ohio that implements equations for estimating a variety of streamflow statistics including the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year peak streamflows, mean annual streamflow, mean monthly streamflows, harmonic mean streamflow, and 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile streamflows. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application designed to facilitate the estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams. StreamStats can also serve precomputed streamflow statistics determined from streamflow-gaging station data. The basic structure, use, and limitations of StreamStats are described in this report. To facilitate the level of automation required for Ohio's StreamStats application, the technique used by Koltun (2003)1 for computing main-channel slope was replaced with a new computationally robust technique. The new channel-slope characteristic, referred to as SL10-85, differed from the National Hydrography Data based channel slope values (SL) reported by Koltun (2003)1 by an average of -28.3 percent, with the median change being -13.2 percent. In spite of the differences, the two slope measures are strongly correlated. The change in channel slope values resulting from the change in computational method necessitated revision of the full-model equations for flood-peak discharges originally presented by Koltun (2003)1. Average standard errors of prediction for the revised full-model equations presented in this report increased by a small amount over those reported by Koltun (2003)1, with increases ranging from 0.7 to 0.9 percent. Mean percentage changes in the revised regression and weighted flood-frequency estimates relative to regression and weighted estimates reported by Koltun (2003)1 were small, ranging from -0.72 to -0.25 percent and -0.22 to 0.07 percent, respectively.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ecological perspective: Linking ecology, GIS, and remote sensing to ecosystem management

Awareness of significant human impacts on the ecology of Earth's landscapes is not new (Thomas 1956). Over the past decade (Forman and Godron 1986, Urban et a1. 1987) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies have supported a rapid rise in landscape.stale research. The heightened recognition within the research community of the ecological linkages between local sites and larger spatial scales has spawned increasing calls for more holistic management of landscapes (Noss 1983, Harris 1984, Risser 1985, Norse et al. 1986, Agee and Johnson 1988, Franklin 1989, Brooks and Grant 1992, Endangered Species Update-Special Issue 1993, Crow 1994, Grumbine 1994). As a result agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and National Park Service are now converging on "ecosystem management" as a new paradigm to sustainably manage wildlands and maintain biodiversity. However, as this transition occurs, several impediments to implementation of this new paradigm persist, including (1) significant uncenainty among many land managers about the definition and goals of ecosystem management, (2) inadequate ecological information on the past and present processes and structural conditions of target ecosystems, (3) insufficient experience on the part of land managers with the rapidly diversifying array of GIS and remote sensing tools to effectively use them to support ecology-based land management, and (4) a paucity of intimate, long-term relationships between people (including land managers) and the particular landscape communities to which they belong. This chapter provides an ecological perspective on these issues as applied to ecosystem management in a southwestern U.S. landscape.

Book chapter↗

Very high-temperature impact melt products as evidence for cosmic airbursts and impacts 12,900 years ago

It has been proposed that fragments of an asteroid or comet impacted Earth, deposited silica-and iron-rich microspherules and other proxies across several continents, and triggered the Younger Dryas cooling episode 12,900 years ago. Although many independent groups have confirmed the impact evidence, the hypothesis remains controversial because some groups have failed to do so. We examined sediment sequences from 18 dated Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) sites across three continents (North America, Europe, and Asia), spanning 12,000 km around nearly one-third of the planet. All sites display abundant microspherules in the YDB with none or few above and below. In addition, three sites (Abu Hureyra, Syria; Melrose, Pennsylvania; and Blackville, South Carolina) display vesicular, high-temperature, siliceous scoria-like objects, or SLOs, that match the spherules geochemically. We compared YDB objects with melt products from a known cosmic impact (Meteor Crater, Arizona) and from the 1945 Trinity nuclear airburst in Socorro, New Mexico, and found that all of these high-energy events produced material that is geochemically and morphologically comparable, including: (i) high-temperature, rapidly quenched microspherules and SLOs; (ii) corundum, mullite, and suessite (Fe 3,/sup>Si), a rare meteoritic mineral that forms under high temperatures; (iii) melted SiO 2 glass, or lechatelierite, with flow textures (or schlieren) that form at > 2,200 °C; and (iv) particles with features indicative of high-energy interparticle collisions. These results are inconsistent with anthropogenic, volcanic, authigenic, and cosmic materials, yet consistent with cosmic ejecta, supporting the hypothesis of extraterrestrial airbursts/impacts 12,900 years ago. The wide geographic distribution of SLOs is consistent with multiple impactors.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

The U.S. Geological Survey mapping and cartographic database activities, 2006-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began systematic topographic mapping of the United States in the 1880s, beginning with scales of 1:250,000 and 1:125,000 in support of geological mapping. Responding to the need for higher resolution and more detail, the 1:62,500-scale, 15-minute, topographic map series was begun in the beginning of the 20th century. Finally, in the 1950s the USGS adopted the 1:24,000-scale, 7.5-minute topographic map series to portray even more detail, completing the coverage of the conterminous 48 states of the United States with this series in 1992. In 2001, the USGS developed the vision and concept of The National Map , a topographic database for the 21st century and the source for a new generation of topographic maps (http://nationalmap.gov/). In 2008, the initial production of those maps began with a 1:24,000-scale digital product. In a separate, but related project, the USGS began scanning the existing inventory of historical topographic maps at all scales to accompany the new topographic maps. The USGS also had developed a digital database of The National Atlas of the United States . The digital version of Atlas is now Web-available and supports a mapping engine for small scale maps of the United States and North America. These three efforts define topographic mapping activities of the USGS during the last few years and are discussed below.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗

GIS-based identification of areas that have resource potential for critical minerals in six selected groups of deposit types in Alaska

Alaska has considerable potential for undiscovered mineral resources. This report evaluates potential for undiscovered critical minerals in Alaska. Critical minerals are those for which the United States imports more than half of its total supply and which are largely derived from nations that cannot be considered reliable trading partners. In this report, estimated resource potential and certainty for the state of Alaska are analyzed and mapped for the following six selected mineral deposit groups that may contain one or more critical minerals: (1) rare earth elements-thorium-yttrium-niobium(-uranium-zirconium) [REE-Th-Y-Nb(-U-Zr)] deposits associated with peralkaline to carbonatitic igneous intrusive rocks; (2) placer and paleoplacer gold (Au) deposits that in some places might also produce platinum group elements (PGE), chromium (Cr), tin (Sn), tungsten (W), silver (Ag), or titanium (Ti); (3) platinum group elements(-cobalt-chromium-nickel-titanium-vanadium) [PGE(-Co-Cr-Ni-Ti-V)] deposits associated with mafic to ultramafic intrusive rocks; (4) carbonate-hosted copper(-cobalt-silver-germanium-gallium) [Cu(-Co-Ag-Ge-Ga)] deposits; (5) sandstone-hosted uranium(-vanadium-copper) [U(-V-Cu)] deposits; and (6) tin-tungsten-molybdenum(-tantalum-indium-fluorspar) [Sn-W-Mo(-Ta-In-fluorspar)] deposits associated with specialized granites. This study used a data-driven, geographic information system (GIS)-implemented method to identify areas that have mineral resource potential in Alaska. This method systematically and simultaneously analyzes geoscience data from multiple geospatially referenced datasets and uses individual subwatersheds (12-digit hydrologic units) as the spatial unit of classification. The final map output uses a red, yellow, green, and gray color scheme to portray estimated relative potential (High, Medium, Low, Unknown) for each of the six groups of mineral deposit types, and it indicates the relative certainty (High, Medium, Low) of that estimate for each 12-digit hydrologic unit through color shading. Accompanying tables describe the data layers employed to score favorability for the presence of each mineral deposit group, the values assigned for specific analysis parameters, and the relative weighting of each data layer that contributes to estimated measures of potential and certainty . Core datasets used include the Alaska Geochemical Database, Version 2.0 (AGDB2); the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (ADGGS) web-based geochemical database; the digital “Geologic Map of Alaska;” the Alaska Resource Data File (ARDF); and aerial gamma-ray surveys flown as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program by the U.S. Department of Energy. Maps accompanying this report illustrate the scores for estimated mineral resource potential for the six deposit groups for the state of Alaska. Areas that have known potential, as well as new areas that were not previously known to have potential, for the targeted minerals and deposit groups are identified and described. Numerous areas in Alaska, some of them large, have high potential for one or more of the selected groups of deposit types within Alaska. Contributors Matthew Granitto, Timothy S. Hayes, James V. Jones, III, Susan M. Karl, Keith A. Labay, Jeffrey L. Mauk, Jeanine M. Schmidt, Nora B. Shew, Erin Todd, Bronwen Wang, Melanie B. Werdon, and Douglas B. Yager

Alaska↗

Predicting spread of invasive exotic plants into dewatered reservoirs after dam removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington

The National Park Service is planning to start the restoration of the Elwha River ecosystem in Olympic National Park by removing two high head dams beginning in 2011. The potential for dispersal of exotic plants into dewatered reservoirs following dam removal, which would inhibit restoration of native vegetation, is of great concern. We focused on predicting long-distance dispersal of invasive exotic plants rather than diffusive spread because local sources of invasive species have been surveyed. We included the long-distance dispersal vectors: wind, water, birds, beavers, ungulates, and users of roads and trails. Using information about the current distribution of invasive species from two surveys, various geographic information system techniques and models, and statistical methods, we identified high-priority areas for Park staff to treat prior to dam removal, and areas of the dewatered reservoirs at risk after dam removal.

Washington↗

Phase 1 studies summary of major findings of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, South San Francisco Bay, California

Executive Summary The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (Project) is one of the largest restoration efforts in the United States. It is located in South San Francisco Bay of California. It is unique not only for its size—more than 15,000 acres—but also for its location adjacent to one of the nation’s largest urban areas, home to more than 4 million people (Alameda, Santa Clara, and San Mateo Counties). The Project is intended to restore and enhance wetlands in South San Francisco Bay while providing for flood management, wildlife-oriented public access, and recreation. Restoration goals of the project are to provide a mosaic of saltmarsh habitat to benefit marsh species and managed ponds to benefit waterbirds, throughout 3 complexes and 54 former salt ponds. Although much is known about the project area, significant uncertainties remain with a project of this geographic and temporal scale of an estimated 50 years to complete the restoration. For example, in order to convert anywhere from 50 to 90 percent of the existing managed ponds to saltmarsh habitat, conservation managers first enhance the habitat of managed ponds in order to increase use by waterbirds, and provide migratory, wintering, and nesting habitat for more than 90 species of waterbirds. Project managers have concluded that the best way to address these uncertainties is to carefully implement the project in phases and learn from the outcome of each phase. The Adaptive Management Plan (AMP) identifies specific restoration targets for multiple aspects of the Project and defines triggers that would necessitate some type of management action if a particular aspect is trending negatively. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) biologist Laura Valoppi served as the project Lead Scientist and oversaw implementation of the AMP in coordination with other members of the Project Management Team (PMT), comprised of representatives from the California State Coastal Conservancy, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Santa Clara Valley Water District, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To implement the AMP, the PMT have selected and funded applied studies and monitoring projects to address key uncertainties. This information is used by the PMT to make decisions about current management of the project area and future restoration actions in order to meet project. This document summarizes the major scientific findings from studies conducted from 2009 to 2016, as part of the science program that was conducted in conjunction with Phase 1 restoration and management actions. Additionally, this report summarizes the management response to the study results under the guidance of the AMP framework and provides a list of suggested studies to be conducted in “Phase 2–A scorecard summarizing the Project’s progress toward meeting the AMP goals for a range of Project objectives.” The scoring to date indicates that the Project is meeting or exceeding expectations for sediment accretion and western snowy plover ( Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus ) recovery. There is uncertainty with respect to objectives for California gulls ( Larus californicus ), California least tern ( Sternula antillarum ), steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and regulatory water quality objectives. Water quality and algal blooms, specifically of the managed ponds, is indicated as trending negative. However, the vast majority of objectives are trending positive, including increased abundance for a number of bird guilds, increasing marsh habitat, maintenance of mudflats, visitor experience, estuarine fish numbers, and special-status marsh species numbers.

California↗

Hydrology and water law: what is their future common ground?

We live in an age of social and economic evolution--evolution so deep reaching and rapid it constitutes ad revolution in numerous fields of human concern. Long-standing concepts of what is appropriate and orderly face drastic modification if they are to survive. To this situation the principles of applied hydrology and the tenets of water law are no exceptions. Their common ground, incomplete in the past, becomes tenuous when projected into the future. To hydrologists it is common knowledge that the Nation has some trouble spots tin water supply, occasioned by burgeoning population, by standards of living that seem luxurious to other peoples if not to us, and by tremendously dynamic industry whose voracious thirst for water seems insatiable. Seldom is the "trouble" a mere lack of water in a quantity sufficient to serve all real needs; rather, water usually is available only part of the time, at greater-than-customary cost, or under competition among several potential uses. We can expect only that such spots will increase in number and in geographic reach.

Open-File Report↗

The National Fish Habitat Partnership – A unique path to conserving fish habitat

The National Fish Habitat Partnership (NFHP) is a science based, non-regulatory, partnership-driven effort to conserve fish habitat across the USA. The NFHP was developed in the early to mid-2000s in response to the noted declines to fish populations and their associated habitats across the USA with the effort led by the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and supported by a wide range of federal and state fisheries agencies along with conservation organizations. Since 2006, 20 Fish Habitat Partnerships have been organized around specific habitats, fish species, or geographic areas. These partnerships have implemented 1,613 projects resulting in 9,720 habitat enhancements or parcels of habitat protected, including 7,962 riverine or coastline miles and 98,255 acres of marine, lake, impoundment, and reservoir fish habitat along with 1,499 science and data products using US$60,613,842 of direct NFHP investment matched or leveraged by $332,841,072. The NFHP was codified by the U.S. Congress in 2020 and reauthorized in 2024, building on the strong initial foundation and ensuring success into the future. Follow-up publications to this overview paper are planned by each Fish Habitat Partnership to fully describe the depth and breadth of this key U.S. habitat program.

Fisheries↗

Potential mineral resources, Payette National Forest, Idaho: Description and probabilistic estimation

The Payette National Forest (PNF), in west-central Idaho, is geologically diverse and contains a wide variety of mineral resources. Mineral deposit types are grouped into locatable, leasable, and salable categories. The PNF has substantial past production and identified resources of locatable commodities, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, tungsten, antimony, mercury, and opal. Minor lignitic coal is the only leasable mineral resource known to be present in the PNF. Resources of salable commodities in the PNF include sand-and-gravel, basalt for crushed-rock aggregate, and minor gypsum. Locatable mineral resources are geographically divided between eastern and western parts of the PNF. The western PNF lies west of the Riggins-to-Cascade highway (US 95 - Idaho 55), and the eastern PNF is east of that highway. The western and eastern parts of the PNF are geologically distinctive and have different types of locatable mineral deposits, so their locatable mineral resources are described separately. Within the western and eastern parts of the PNF, locatable deposit types generally are described in order of decreasing geologic age. An expert panel delineated tracts considered geologically permissive and (or) favorable for the occurrence of undiscovered mineral deposits of types that are known to be present within or near the PNF. The panel also estimated probabilities for undiscovered deposits, and used numerical simulation, based on tonnage-grade distribution models, to derive estimates of in-situ metals contained. These estimates are summarized in terms of mean and median measures of central tendency. Most grade and tonnage distributions appear to be log-normal, with the median lower than the mean. Inasmuch as the mean is influenced by the largest deposits in the model tonnage-grade distribution, the median provides a lower measure of central tendency and a more conservative estimation of undiscovered resources.

Idaho↗

Multi-decade mortality and a novel homolog of hepatitis C virus in bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), the national bird of the USA

The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) once experienced near-extinction but has since rebounded. For decades, bald eagles near the Wisconsin River, USA, have experienced a lethal syndrome with characteristic clinical and pathological features but unknown etiology. Here, we describe a novel hepacivirus-like virus (Flaviviridae: Hepacivirus) identified during an investigation of Wisconsin River eagle syndrome (WRES). Bald eagle hepacivirus (BeHV) belongs to a divergent clade of avian viruses that share features with members of the genera Hepacivirus and Pegivirus. BeHV infected 31.9% of eagles spanning 4,254 km of the coterminous USA, with negative strand viral RNA demonstrating active replication in liver tissues. Eagles from Wisconsin were approximately 10-fold more likely to be infected than eagles from elsewhere. Eagle mitochondrial DNA sequences were homogeneous and geographically unstructured, likely reflecting a recent population bottleneck, whereas BeHV envelope gene sequences showed strong population genetic substructure and isolation by distance, suggesting localized transmission. Cophylogenetic analyses showed no congruity between eagles and their viruses, supporting horizontal rather than vertical transmission. These results expand our knowledge of the Flaviviridae, reveal a striking pattern of decoupled host/virus coevolution on a continental scale, and highlight knowledge gaps about health and conservation in even the most iconic of wildlife species.

Scientific Reports↗

Peneplains of the Front Range and Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

The purpose of this paper is to call attention to some of the major surface features in the Rocky Mountain National Park and to point out their probable correlation with similar features in neighboring regions. The observations on which the paper is based were made in the summer of 1916, during an investigation in which other work demanded first consideration. This paper may therefore be considered a by-product. For the same reason many of the observations were not followed to conclusions, yet the data obtained seem to be sufficient to establish a certain order of events, the recognition of which may be of assistance in working out in detail the geologic and geographic history of the Rocky Mountain region.

Bulletin↗

The quality of our nation’s waters: Quality of water from domestic wells in principal aquifers of the United States, 1991–2004— Overview of major findings

More than 43 million people - about 15 percent of the U.S. population - rely on domestic wells as their source of drinking water (Hutson and others, 2004). The quality and safety of water from domestic wells, also known as private wells, are not regulated by the Federal Safe Drinking Water Act or, in most cases, by state laws. Rather, individual homeowners are responsible for maintaining their domestic well systems and for monitoring water quality. The lack of regular monitoring of domestic wells makes periodic assessments at national, regional, and local scales important sources for providing information about this key source of drinking water. This study from the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assesses water-quality conditions for about 2,100 domestic wells. The sampled wells are located in 48 states and in parts of 30 regionally extensive aquifers used for water supply in the United States. As many as 219 properties and contaminants, including pH, major ions, nutrients, trace elements, radon, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), were measured. Fecal indicator bacteria and additional radionuclides were analyzed for a smaller number of wells. The large number of contaminants assessed and the broad geographic coverage of the present study provides a foundation for an improved understanding of the quality of water from the major aquifers tapped by domestic supply wells in the United States.

Circular↗

An analysis of the potential for Glen Canyon Dam releases to inundate archaeological sites in the Grand Canyon, Arizona

The development of a one-dimensional flow-routing model for the Colorado River between Lees Ferry and Diamond Creek, Arizona in 2008 provided a potentially useful tool for assessing the degree to which varying discharges from Glen Canyon Dam may inundate terrestrial environments and potentially affect resources located within the zone of inundation. Using outputs from the model, a geographic information system analysis was completed to evaluate the degree to which flows from Glen Canyon Dam might inundate archaeological sites located along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon. The analysis indicates that between 4 and 19 sites could be partially inundated by flows released from Glen Canyon Dam under current (2014) operating guidelines, and as many as 82 archaeological sites may have been inundated to varying degrees by uncontrolled high flows released in June 1983. Additionally, the analysis indicates that more of the sites currently (2014) proposed for active management by the National Park Service are located at low elevations and, therefore, tend to be more susceptible to potential inundation effects than sites not currently (2014) targeted for management actions, although the potential for inundation occurs in both groups of sites. Because of several potential sources of error and uncertainty associated with the model and with limitations of the archaeological data used in this analysis, the results are not unequivocal. These caveats, along with the fact that dam-related impacts can involve more than surface-inundation effects, suggest that the results of this analysis should be used with caution to infer potential effects of Glen Canyon Dam on archaeological sites in the Grand Canyon.

Arizona↗

Water-quality assessment of the Delmarva Peninsula, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia: Results of investigations, 1987-91

A regional ground-water-quality assessment of the Delmarva Peninsula was conducted as a pilot study for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The study focused on the surficial aquifer and used both existing data and new data collected between 1988 and 1991. The new water samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, radon, volatile organic compounds, and a suite of herbicides and insecticides commonly used on corn, soybeans, and small grains. Samples also were collected from wells completed in deeper, confined aquifers and from selected streams, and analyzed for most of these constituents. The study employed a multi-scale network design. Regional networks were chosen to provide broad geographic coverage of the study area and to ensure that the major hydrogeologic settings of the surficial aquifer were adequately represented. Both the existing data and the data from samples collected during the study showed that agricultural activities had affected the quality of water in the surficial aquifer over most of the Peninsula.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

North American Bat Monitoring Program regional protocol for surveying with stationary deployments of echolocation recording devices: Narrative version 1.0, Pacific Northwestern US

The outbreak of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and the growing awareness of the risks to bats from wind power generating facilities have driven radical changes to North American bat conservation. Over the last decade, formerly common species such as the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) and hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) have experienced unprecedented mortality rates and are now facing non-trivial extinction risk. In response to this change, federal land management agencies such as the US National Park Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Forest Service, US Bureau of Land Management and state wildlife management agencies such as the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and Idaho Fish and Game have invested in collaborative, interagency bat monitoring to close the gap in information about bat welfare and to inform bat conservation strategies. Bats are notoriously difficult to track and study and there remains a paucity of fundamental information about the seasonal patterns of bat activity and habitat use and population distributions and abundances. Moreover, because bats are so highly mobile and difficult to survey (e.g., nocturnal flight), this information needs to be contextualized at broad regional (e.g., 10,000 km2) and range-wide extents. Delimiting bat populations at local scales (e.g., 100 km2) is very difficult and it is not clear, for example, how a declining trend in local (e.g., a small park unit) patterns of bat activity or relative abundance should be interpreted without broader context. In recognition of these challenges, a plan for coordinated continental-scale monitoring of bats, the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) was developed (Loeb et al. 2015). The centerpiece of the plan is the use of a spatially-balanced randomized master sample of grid-cell sample units from a grid-based sampling frame to provide the architecture for collaboration and the statistical foundation for making inferences about bat populations across broad regions and entire bat geographic ranges. The plan outlines general goals, survey design, and field methods for both summertime acoustic surveys of bats as well as winter and summer counts of bats in hibernacula and maternity colonies but it does not provide field-level protocol and standard operating procedures for consistent and efficient implementation. This regional protocol provides these details for one component of NABat, the deployment of stationary acoustic detectors to record bats during summer, as is called for by the NABat plan. This protocol was written specifically to provide guidance and consistency across the Pacific Northwestern US (N. California [California Department of Fish and Wildlife Northern Region], Idaho, Washington, and Oregon; US Fish and Wildlife Service Region 1 and portion of Region 8 [in Northern California and Klamath Basin]; US Forest Service Region 6 and portions of Regions 1 and 5 in Idaho; and the Upper Columbia Basin, North Coast Cascades, and Klamath Networks of the National Park Service). This region has internal cohesion, sharing a distinct bat faunal assemblage of 15 species (with several additional species occurring on the southern periphery of the region), and a long history of collaborative bat monitoring beginning with the interagency Bat Grid Program which operated from 2003-2010 across Oregon and Washington (US Forest Service Region 6). This protocol will be coordinated and implemented by the Northwestern Bat Hub, on behalf of the collective interagency partnership. The Northwestern Bat Hub is housed on the Oregon State University-Cascades campus and leverages pooled partner funds and resources to maintain a small staff that coordinates and conducts monitoring, provides training and oversight, ensures high-quality data quality and control, and analyzes data and reports on results.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Natural Hazards↗

Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes ( Hylocichla mustelina ) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ± 0.007 ( ± SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different ( α [ S radioed , S banded ] =log[ S radioed / S banded ]=0.0239 ± 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata ( Ψ = 0.911 ± 0.020; α [ Ψ 11 , Ψ 22 ]=0.0161 ± 0.047), and recapture rates ( p = 0.097 ± 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different ( α [ P radioed , P banded ]=0.145 ± 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide adequate data for useful inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗