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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Management of conservation reserve program grasslands to meet wildlife habitat objectives

Numerous studies document environmental and social benefits of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This report offers a synopsis of findings regarding effects of establishing CRP conservation practices on the quality and distribution of wildlife habitat in agricultural landscapes. On individual farms, year-round provision of wildlife habitat by the CRP may appear relatively insignificant. However, considered from multi-farm to National scales, such improvements in habitat and wildlife response have proven to be extensive and profound. Because CRP acres historically have been dominated by plantings of introduced and native grasses, this report focuses on issues pertaining to wildlife response to grass-dominated conservation practices. While the majority of CRP acres have been concentrated largely in the Great Plains and Corn Belt regions, 47 states (and Puerto Rico) have participated, resulting in measurable environmental benefits throughout the United States. Numerous investigations of habitat use by a wide range of wildlife species reveal that periodic management of CRP lands can enhance benefits through and beyond a typical 10 year general CRP contract. Over its 28-year existence, the CRP has evolved into an effective integration of conservation and agricultural policies targeting fragile and environmentally-valuable lands. Landowners with fields enrolled in the CRP often are the first to observe improvement in the landscape, greater numbers and kinds of wildlife, cleaner water and air, less erosion, and they have the satisfaction of seeing fragile lands serve better purposes. There is persistent concern that improvement seen in wildlife habitat and other environmental profits delivered by the CRP are ephemeral and last only as long as funding supports the existence of the program and its vegetative cover is properly managed. An involved American population will continue to expect governmental policies to enhance long-term protection of natural resources and public health. Recent investigations furnish evidence that the collective economic value of environmental benefits delivered by the CRP likely exceed program costs. The mounting significance placed on environmentally-responsible land management is based in part on public recognition that social, aesthetic, and recreational values enhance the traditional uses of agricultural land.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2025

Update to a management-focused population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales

We provide an update to the recently published population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ). The update includes improvements to the reproduction modeling and also shares additional context given evidence of reduced mortality indicated by recent population monitoring. Projections from the analysis are used to quantify simulated population sizes across 100 years and resulting quasi-extinction probabilities (falling below 50 mature females that have proven ability to reproduce) to compare hypothetical scenarios related to management of threats and changing environmental conditions. Under a status quo scenario reflecting conditions of 2019, prior to the enactment of new regulations by the U.S. and Canada, the North Atlantic right whale population would be expected to continue to fall, with a median decline of 88 percent (95% projection interval, –98 percent to –45 percent change) and a probability of falling below 50 proven females (i.e., quasi-extinction) of 0.988 at 100 years. In hypothetical scenarios that fully remove each of the three primary threats to right whales one at a time, removal of the entanglement threat alone reduces the probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years to 0.070; removal of the vessel strike threat alone reduces it to 0.522; and a return to historical prey abundance patterns (pre-2010), but with both human-related threats still in place, reduces it to 0.524. Although additional baseline scenarios were explored to examine the potential effects of recent regulations, we found that the most up-to-date mortality rates (2020–2022) are similar to those simulated under a 70% reduction in severe entanglement injury compared to rates estimated during 2013–2019. If management measures implemented in the U.S. and Canada continue to reduce mortality, the estimated probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years is 0.234. Our model continues to provide a tool for assessing North Atlantic right whale recovery.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2017

Functional integrity of freshwater forested wetlands, hydrologic alteration, and climate change

Climate change will challenge managers to balance the freshwater needs of humans and wetlands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of the world will be exposed to higher temperatures, CO 2 , and more erratic precipitation, with some regions likely to have alternating episodes of intense flooding and mega-drought. Coastal areas will be exposed to more frequent saltwater inundation as sea levels rise. Local land managers desperately need intra-regional climate information for site-specific planning, management, and restoration activities. Managers will be challenged to deliver freshwater to floodplains during climate change-induced drought, particularly within hydrologically altered and developed landscapes. Assessment of forest health, both by field and remote sensing techniques, will be essential to signal the need for hydrologic remediation. Studies of the utility of the release of freshwater to remediate stressed forested floodplains along the Murray and Mississippi Rivers suggest that brief episodes of freshwater remediation for trees can have positive health benefits for these forests. The challenges of climate change in forests of the developing world will be considered using the Tonle Sap of Cambodia as an example. With little ecological knowledge of the impacts, managing climate change will add to environmental problems already faced in the developing world with new river engineering projects. These emerging approaches to remediate stressed trees will be of utmost importance for managing worldwide floodplain forests with predicted climate changes.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗
USGS2015

Dust control products at Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge, Texas: environmental safety and performance

Controlling fugitive dust while protecting natural resources is a challenge faced by all managers of unpaved roads. Unfortunately, road managers choosing between dust control products often have little objective environmental information to aid their decisions. To address this information gap, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collaborated on a field test of three dust control products with the objectives of ( a ) evaluating product performance under real-world conditions, ( b ) verifying the environmental safety of products identified as practically nontoxic in laboratory tests, and ( c ) testing the feasibility of several environmental monitoring techniques for use in dust control tests. In cooperation with refuge staff and product vendors, three products (one magnesium chloride plus binder, one cellulose, and one synthetic fluid plus binder) were applied in July 2012 to replicated road sections at the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge in Texas. These sections were monitored periodically for 12 months after application. Product performance was assessed by mobile-mounted particulate-matter meters measuring production of fugitive dust and by observations of road conditions. Environmental safety was evaluated through on-site biological observations and leaching tests with samples of treated aggregate. All products reduced dust and improved surface condition during those 12 months. Planned environmental measurements were not always compatible with day-to-day refuge management actions; this incompatibility highlighted the need for flexible biological monitoring plans. As one of the first field tests of dust suppressants that explicitly incorporated biological endpoints, this effort provides valuable information for improving field tests and for developing laboratory or semifield alternatives.

Texas↗
USGS2011

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2020

Combining models of the critical streakline and the cross-sectional distribution of juvenile salmon to predict fish routing at river junctions

Because fish that enter the interior Delta have poorer survival than those emigrating via the Sacramento River, understanding the mechanisms that drive entrainment rates at side channel junctions is critically important for the management of imperiled juvenile salmon. Here, we implement a previously proposed process-based conceptual model to study entrainment rates based on three linked elements: the entrainment zone, critical streakline, and cross-sectional distribution of fish. The critical streakline is the location along a channel cross-section immediately upstream of a junction that forms the spatial divide between parcels of water that enter a side channel or remain in the main channel. The critical streakline therefore divides the main channel into entrainment zones within which fish would likely enter each channel. Combined with information about the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of a junction, this conceptual model provides a means to predict fish entrainment into each channel. To apply this conceptual model, we combined statistical models of the critical streakline, the cross-sectional distribution of acoustic tagged juvenile Chinook salmon, and their probability of entrainment into Georgiana Slough. We fit joint beta regression and logistic regression models to acoustic telemetry data gathered in 2011 and 2012 to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of the junction, and to estimate the probability of entrainment for fish on either side of the critical streakline. We show that entrainment rates can be predicted by understanding how the combination of critical streakline position and cross-sectional distribution of fish co-vary as a function of environmental covariates. By integrating over individual positions and entrainment fates to arrive at population-level entrain probability in relation to environmental covariates, our model offers managers a simple but powerful tool to evaluate how alternative actions affect migrating fish.

California↗
USGS2024

An integrated analysis for estimation of survival, growth, and movement of unmarked juvenile anadromous fish

Managers invest substantial resources to promote recovery of declining anadromous fish stocks. Recovery strategies are manifold and often include management actions intended to stimulate somatic growth, increase in-river survival, and motivate juvenile outmigration during favorable environmental conditions. Evaluating the efficacy of these management actions is difficult, however, because monitoring data that explicitly track individuals from egg deposition to juvenile outmigration are typically lacking. We developed an integrated population model that links two different and often collected types of anadromous fish monitoring data: spawning ground surveys and rotary screw trap juvenile catch data. The integrated model accounts for incomplete detection and uses the two sources of data to estimate juvenile demographic parameters in a multistate framework. We evaluated the model's performance using simulated data under a range of conditions typically encountered in similar surveys. Simulation results indicated that the model estimated juvenile survival, growth, and movement with no-to-minimal bias (i.e., ≥ 50 % of simulations ± 0–0.05). As an example case study, we fit the model to empirical fall-run Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) monitoring data collected in California's Central Valley, U.S.A. In doing so, we evaluated the influence of environmental conditions (e.g., discharge, water temperature) and habitat availability on juvenile demographic rates. We demonstrated that through our integrated approach we could estimate state transition probabilities that are typically inestimable for naturally produced, unmarked juvenile fish when using traditional statistical approaches to analyze these types of monitoring data. Furthermore, the structure of our model can serve as a useful foundation for decision-support models within adaptive management programs by directly linking management actions, decision-support-model predictions, and monitoring.

California↗
USGS2020

Efficient mammal biodiversity surveys for ecological restoration monitoring

Efficient biodiversity surveys are critical for successful restoration monitoring and management. We studied the effect of varying sampling effort on the observed species richness of surveys of small mammals (trapping transects), bats (passive acoustic detection), and medium to large mammals (trail cameras). Field studies provided mammalian biodiversity data for 4 bottomland hardwood restoration sites in northeastern Indiana. Subsampled data were used to simulate monitoring surveys with a range of levels of effort. We then used hierarchical Bayesian nonlinear mixed models to analyze how different components of sampling effort affected observed species richness, a key monitoring outcome. We found that observed small mammal richness increased with the increased number of transects in a survey, while observed bat and medium to large mammal richness increased with the increased duration of sampling. Variation between sites was important for the observed richness of small mammals and bats but not for medium to large mammals. The key driver of richness observed in simulated surveys was related to the spatial scale at which target fauna interact with the habitat, with decreasing richness accompanied by a greater spatial scale of animal–habitat interactions. Our findings suggest taxon-specific recommendations for efficiently quantifying the mammalian diversity of managed sites.

Indiana↗
USGS2010

Shifting environmental foundations: The unprecedented and unpredictable future: Chapter 4

As described in Chapter 2, protected area managers have been directed, through statutes and agency policy, to preserve natural conditions in parks and wilderness. Although preserving naturalness has always been a challenge for managers, there has never been much question about whether this is the right thing to do. But given what is known now about the pace and magnitude of ongoing global changes, the appropriateness of naturalness as a management goal must be reexamined. A host of anthropogenic environmental stressors are reshaping ecosystems, including those protected in parks and wilderness. Pollution is now ubiquitous worldwide, and invasive species are common in most landscapes. Habitats have become highly fragmented, and climatic changes are dramatically altering the abiotic conditions in which biota live. Given these changes, some attempts to restore and maintain naturalness may at best be ineffective; at worst, they could waste precious resources and even contribute to loss of some of the values that managers are trying to protect.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Fijian sea krait behavior relates to fine-scale environmental heterogeneity in old-growth coastal forest: The importance of integrated land–sea management for protecting amphibious animals

The importance of terrestrial coastal ecosystems for maintaining healthy coral reef ecosystems remains understudied. Sea kraits are amphibious snakes that require healthy coral reefs for foraging, but little is known about their requirements of terrestrial habitats, where they slough their skin, digest prey, and breed. Using concurrent microclimate measurements and behavior surveys, we show that a small, topographically flat atoll in Fiji with coastal forest provides many microhabitats that relate to the behaviors of Yellow Lipped Sea Kraits, Laticauda colubrina . Microclimates were significantly related to canopy cover, leaf litter depth, and distance from the high-water mark (HWM). Sea kraits were almost exclusively observed in coastal forest within 30 m of the HWM. Sloughing of skins only occurred within crevices of mature or dying trees. Resting L. colubrina were significantly more likely to occur at locations with higher mean diurnal temperatures, lower leaf litter depths, and shorter distances from the HWM. On Leleuvia, behavior of L. colubrina therefore relates to environmental heterogeneity created by old-growth coastal forests, particularly canopy cover and crevices in mature and dead tree trunks. The importance of healthy coastal habitats, both terrestrial and marine, for L. colubrina suggests it could be a good flagship species for advocating integrated land-sea management. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of coastal forests and topographically flat atolls for biodiversity conservation. Effective conservation management of amphibious species that utilize land- and seascapes is therefore likely to require a holistic approach that incorporates connectivity among ecosystems and environmental heterogeneity at all relevant scales.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Using acoustic Doppler velocity meters to estimate suspended sediment along the lower Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers

Lake Pepin is the largest naturally formed lake on the Mississippi River and has complex management needs to satisfy economic, environmental, and cultural demands. Lake Pepin is filling in with sediment at a rapid rate compared to conditions before settlement by European immigrants and intense agricultural cultivation. Accordingly, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has developed aggressive plans to prioritize sediment sources, understand transport mechanisms, and implement large-scale strategies to reduce sedimentation in Lake Pepin. The Minnesota River is the primary sediment source to Lake Pepin, and reductions in sediment loading from the Minnesota River are needed to reduce sedimentation in Lake Pepin. Current loading estimates were calculated from grab sampling and total suspended solids laboratory methods that greatly underestimate the actual concentrations in the rivers when compared to U.S. Geological Survey width and depth integrated sampling and laboratory methods for determining suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, with funding from the Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund and in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Lower Minnesota River Watershed District, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, collected SSCs and acoustic backscatter data from acoustic Doppler velocity meters over a 2-year period at nine sites. The purpose of the study was to improve understanding of sediment-transport processes and increase accuracy of estimating SSCs and suspended-sediment loads for the lower Minnesota River and the Mississippi River compared to traditional measures. The study results indicated that acoustic backscatter worked well in estimating SSCs at sites not regulated by locks, dams, and lakes. The results also confirmed previous studies that determined most of the suspended-sediment loading into the Mississippi River is from the Minnesota River and the largest sediment sink is Lake Pepin. Suspended-sediment loading from site to site and year to year was often variable when compared to streamflow, which has been traditionally used to estimate SSC. As a result, this study demonstrates the value in having high temporal and spatial resolution of continuous sediment monitoring from acoustic devices to help manage the sources of sediment into Lake Pepin.

Minnesota River, Mississippi River↗
USGS2024

Effects of culverts on habitat connectivity in streams—A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of culverts on stream connectivity and subsequent effects on fish. We conducted a structured search of published scientific literature to find information about (1) culvert design, installation, and degradation; (2) methods for analyzing culvert condition and quantifying stream connectivity; and (3) the effects of changes to stream connectivity on freshwater fish. We follow the organization first established in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5114, in which the report sections align with standard elements of NEPA analyses. We found that, while the effects of dams on stream biota are well documented, smaller barriers at road crossings, like culverts, are prevalent and collectively have a substantial effect on habitat connectivity. Individual culverts differ in the degree to which they impede the movement of aquatic organisms, and we documented methods to assess and estimate the permeability of a culvert, or the ability of aquatic organisms to pass through it. Finally, we outlined methods for using culvert location and permeability information to quantify connectivity in a watershed based on the Dendritic Connectivity Index. Studies have shown that channel constriction, perched outlets, and extreme flow velocities are some of the characteristics of culverts that may hinder aquatic organism passage. Culverts can serve as daily and seasonal barriers to fish, disrupting access to habitat and essential resources like cold water or overwintering refuges. Reduced connectivity can have population-level effects, leading to lower fish species richness and abundance in affected watersheds. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA documentation, as supplemental information, or as a general reference for literature about the effects of culverts on stream connectivity and freshwater fish.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2004

Cyanide hazards to plants and animals from gold mining and related water issues

Highly toxic sodium cyanide (NaCN) is used by the international mining community to extract gold and other precious metals through milling of high-grade ores and heap leaching of low-grade ores (Korte et al. 2000). The process to concentrate gold using cyanide was developed in Scotland in 1887 and was used almost immediately in the Witwatersrand gold fields of the Republic of South Africa. Heap leaching with cyanide was proposed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines in 1969 as a means of extracting gold from low-grade ores. The gold industry adopted the technique in the 1970s, soon making heap leaching the dominant technology in gold extraction (Da Rosa and Lyon 1997). The heap leach and milling processes, which involve dewatering of gold-bearing ores, spraying of dilute cyanide solutions on extremely large heaps of ores containing low concentrations of gold, or the milling of ores with the use of cyanide and subsequent recovery of the gold-cyanide complex, have created a number of serious environmental problems affecting wildlife and water management. In this account, we review the history of cyanide use in gold mining with emphasis on heap leach gold mining, cyanide hazards to plants and animals, water management issues associated with gold mining, and proposed mitigation and research needs.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗
USGS2024

Effects of noise from oil and gas development on raptors and songbirds—A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of noise from oil and gas development on North American raptors, songbirds, and other small avian species. We conducted a structured search of published scientific literature to find information about noise levels produced during oil and gas development, methods for analyzing sound propagation, the effects of noise on avian species, and measures to reduce noise emissions. We follow the organization first established in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5114, in which the report sections align with standard elements of NEPA analyses. We found that oil and gas development is a common source of human-caused noise on public lands and includes noise sources such as heavy construction and drilling machinery, long-term production machinery, truck traffic, and aircraft. Common techniques for predicting potential noise include field data collection using a sound level meter, inference from previously published data, and sound propagation modeling. The effects of human-caused noise on songbirds are well researched, whereas, among raptors, only owl species have been well-studied in relation to noise. Several studies have established that noise can reduce owl hunting success because many owl species are heavily reliant on hearing prey when hunting. The effects of noise on songbirds depend on several factors. Typically, birds that rely on vocal communication for mating, predator detection, and spatial orientation, and that are less able to adjust the frequencies of their vocalizations, are more vulnerable to behavioral changes and decreased fitness in noisy areas. Techniques suggested in the literature for reducing noise emissions include artificial sound barriers, seasonal and daily timing restrictions, traffic control measures, and siting infrastructure to take advantage of natural sound barriers. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA documentation, as supplemental information, or as a general reference to find literature or identify gaps in the literature about the effects of noise from oil and gas development on raptors and songbirds.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

Effects of noise from oil and gas development on ungulates and small mammals—A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of noise from oil and gas development on North American ungulates and small mammals, including rodents and leporids. We conducted a structured search of published scientific literature to find information about noise levels produced during oil and gas development, methods for analyzing sound propagation, the effects of noise on ungulates and small mammals, and measures to reduce noise emissions. We organized the sections of this synthesis to align with standard elements of NEPA analyses. We found that oil and gas development is a common source of human-caused noise on public lands and includes noise sources such as heavy construction and drilling machinery, long-term production machinery, truck traffic, and aircraft. Common techniques for predicting potential noise include field data collection using a sound level meter, inference from previously published data, and sound propagation modeling. A substantial body of research shows that human-caused noise can affect wildlife health and behavior, with variation in sensitivity to noise among species. Studies have shown consistent, detectable effects of noise on ungulates, but the amount of literature on ungulates is very small, and additional research could improve our understanding of differences in effects among species, seasons, and individual indicators of fitness. Several species of small mammals are dependent on audible signals for predator detection and communication, and noise has been shown to affect their vigilance and foraging behavior. However, other studies have documented no effects to rodents in noisy areas, and the effects of noise on small mammals may differ by species and study system. Techniques suggested in the literature for reducing noise emissions include sound barriers, seasonal and daily timing restrictions, traffic control measures, and siting infrastructure to take advantage of natural sound barriers. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA documentation, as supplemental information, or as a general reference for literature about the effects of noise from oil and gas development on ungulates and small mammals.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Ontogeny of eDNA shedding during early development in Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Knowledge of the timing of major life history events in aquatic species is important for informing conservation and resource management planning. Accordingly, surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA) have been performed to determine the efficacy of eDNA for providing information on life history events, primarily focusing on the timing of events associated with spawning, and these studies have proved successful. However, spawning represents only one part of the life history, and therefore, information on eDNA shedding during other life history stages is needed to fill gaps in knowledge. Here, we explored eDNA shedding during early life history (from fertilized eggs until near yolk sac absorption) in Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) at three biomasses in a laboratory environment. We found that fertilized eggs shed little eDNA prior to hatching. Hatching coincided with a spike in eDNA, and we observed a significant and positive relationship between eDNA concentration and the number of hatched eggs. The concentration of eDNA shed by larvae after hatching was not consistent across post-hatch sampling days, suggesting developmental and behavioral changes associated with larval ontogeny may affect eDNA shedding rate. These results indicate that eDNA data may be used to identify hatch timing and verify successful reproduction in oviparous aquatic fishes. The application of eDNA to early life history broadens the capacity of eDNA-based methods for assessing population status and trends.

Environmental DNA↗
USGS2013

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Surface disposal of produced waters in western and southwestern Pennsylvania: potential for accumulation of alkali-earth elements in sediments

Waters co-produced with hydrocarbons in the Appalachian Basin are of notably poor quality (concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS) and total radium up to and exceeding 300,000 mg/L and 10,000 pCi/L, respectively). Since 2008, a rapid increase in Marcellus Shale gas production has led to a commensurate rise in associated wastewater while generation of produced water from conventional oil and gas activities has continued. In this study, we assess whether disposal practices from treatment of produced waters from both shale gas and conventional operations in Pennsylvania could result in the accumulation of associated alkali earth elements. The results from our 5 study sites indicate that there was no increase in concentrations of total Ra (Ra-226) and extractable Ba, Ca, Na, or Sr in fluvial sediments downstream of the discharge outfalls (p > 0.05) of publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) and centralized waste treatment facilities (CWTs). However, the use of road spreading of brines from conventional oil and gas wells for deicing resulted in accumulation of Ra-226 (1.2 ×), and extractable Sr (3.0 ×), Ca (5.3 ×), and Na (6.2 ×) in soil and sediment proximal to roads (p < 0.05). Although this study is an important initial assessment of the impacts of these disposal practices, more work is needed to consider the environmental consequences of produced waters management.

Pennsylvania↗