Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Natural Resource Modeling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non‐invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005–2008). Multiple regression and an information‐theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate–topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen.

Oikos↗

Effects of an early mass-flowering crop on wild bee communities and traits in power line corridors vary with blooming plants and landscape context

Context Power line corridors have been repeatedly assessed as habitat for wild bees; however, few studies have examined them as bee habitat relative to nearby crop fields and surrounding landscape context. Objectives We surveyed bee communities in power line corridors near to and isolated from lowbush blueberry fields in two landscape contexts in Maine, U.S.A. We examined the influences of blooming plant abundance and diversity and bee life-history traits including sociality, nesting preference, and body size. Methods We surveyed wild bees and blooming plants in power line corridors from 2013 to 2015. We calculated landscape composition surrounding sites at multiple scales and gathered bee trait information from the literature. We assessed differences in bee communities owing to landscape context with generalized linear models. Results We collected 125 wild bee species and observed a rare plant-pollinator relationship within power line corridors. We found greater bee abundance and species richness throughout a complex, resource-rich landscape, while mass-flowering lowbush blueberry fields enhanced bee species richness only in a simple, resource-poor landscape. Landscape composition and blooming plant diversity varied with landscape context, though only landscape composition influenced bee communities. Solitary and ground-nesting species were more sensitive to landscape context than social or cavity-nesting species. Conclusions Power line corridors provide crucial refugia for crop pollinating wild bees in agricultural landscapes with resource-poor natural habitat, while bees may selectively forage in power line corridors within agricultural landscapes containing resource-rich natural habitat. We found high-quality forage within corridors; quantifying nesting resources could clarify corridor use by wild bees.

Maine↗

Equations for estimating synthetic unit-hydrograph parameter values for small watersheds in Lake County, Illinois

Design hydrographs computed from design storms, simple models of abstractions (interception, depression storage, and infiltration), and synthetic unit hydrographs provide vital information for stormwater, flood-plain, and water-resources management throughout the United States. Rainfall and runoff data for small watersheds in Lake County collected between 1990 and 1995 were studied to develop equations for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters on the basis of watershed and storm characteristics. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters of interest were the time of concentration (TC) and watershed-storage coefficient (R) for the Clark unit-hydrograph method, the unit-graph lag (UL) for the Soil Conservation Service (now known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service) dimensionless unit hydrograph, and the hydrograph-time lag (TL) for the linear-reservoir method for unit-hydrograph estimation. Data from 66 storms with effective-precipitation depths greater than 0.4 inches on 9 small watersheds (areas between 0.06 and 37 square miles (mi2)) were utilized to develop the estimation equations, and data from 11 storms on 8 of these watersheds were utilized to verify (test) the estimation equations. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters were determined by calibration using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Hydrograph Package HEC-1 (TC, R, and UL) or by manual analysis of the rainfall and run-off data (TL). The relation between synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters, and watershed and storm characteristics was determined by multiple linear regression of the logarithms of the parameters and characteristics. Separate sets of equations were developed with watershed area and main channel length as the starting parameters. Percentage of impervious cover, main channel slope, and depth of effective precipitation also were identified as important characteristics for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters. The estimation equations utilizing area had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.873, 0.961, 0.968, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively, and the estimation equations utilizing main channel length had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.845, 0.957, 0.961, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively. Simulation of the measured hydrographs for the verification storms utilizing TC and R obtained from the estimation equations yielded good results without calibration. The peak discharge for 8 of the 11 storms was estimated within 25 percent and the time-to-peak discharge for 10 of the 11 storms was estimated within 20 percent. Thus, application of the estimation equations to determine synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters for design-storm simulation may result in reliable design hydrographs; as long as the physical characteristics of the watersheds under consideration are within the range of those for the watersheds in this study (area: 0.06-37 mi2, main channel length: 0.33-16.6 miles, main channel slope: 3.13-55.3 feet per mile, and percentage of impervious cover: 7.32-40.6 percent). The estimation equations are most reliable when applied to watersheds with areas less than 25 mi2.

Open-File Report↗

Water-quality response to changes in phosphorus loading of the Winnebago Pool Lakes, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of internal loading in a chain of shallow lakes

The Winnebago Pool is a chain of four shallow lakes (Lake Poygan, Lake Winneconne, Lake Butte des Morts, and Lake Winnebago) that are fed primarily by the Fox and Wolf Rivers, two large agriculturally dominated rivers in Wisconsin, United States. Because the lakes have received extensive phosphorus inputs from their watershed, they have become highly eutrophic with much phosphorus in the water column as well as trapped in their sediments. Each of the four Winnebago Pool lakes has been included on the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources impaired waters list because of their high total phosphorus concentrations, water-quality use restrictions, and excess algal growth. The study described in this report is part of a Total Maximum Daily Load investigation to determine what actions are needed to improve the water quality (trophic status) of these lakes and thus be able to be removed from the impaired waters list and restore their designated uses. As part of this study, data were collected to describe the existing water quality of the lakes, detailed phosphorus budgets were developed for each of the lakes to describe the different sources of the phosphorus, and two eutrophication models (BATHTUB and Jensen models) were used to determine how much of the phosphorus being input to the lakes needs to be reduced for the lakes to be removed from the impaired waters list and restore their designated uses. In-lake water-quality data indicated that each of the lakes had extensive vertical mixing that resulted in their water quality deteriorating throughout summer. Each of the lakes had mean summer total phosphorus concentrations exceeding 0.088 milligram per liter (mg/L), well above the 0.040 mg/L criterion for the lakes. Detailed phosphorus budgets for the lakes indicated that the primary sources of phosphorus were from their tributaries (for the most upstream lake in the Winnebago Pool–Lake Poygan) or from a combination of input from the upstream lakes and phosphorus release from the bottom sediment when only the summer months were considered (for the other three lakes). Model simulations with the BATHTUB and Jensen models indicated that (1) the lakes should have almost linear response in their total phosphorus concentrations to changes in their phosphorus inputs; (2) phosphorus inputs need to be reduced by about 60 percent to the Upper Pool Lakes and 69–73 percent to Lake Winnebago to reduce their mean summer total phosphorus concentrations to 0.040 mg/L; and (3) if all the anthropogenic phosphorus inputs to the lakes could be eliminated, their best possible mean summer total phosphorus concentrations should decrease to about 0.022–0.028 mg/L in the Upper Pool Lakes and to 0.032–0.033 mg/L in Lake Winnebago. The effects of any reduction in phosphorus loading will take many years (50 to more than 75 years) to be fully realized in lake water quality because of phosphorus release from the lake sediments. The effects of nutrient reductions in the watershed of a chain of lakes, such as the Winnebago Pool, gradually cascades down the chain, which has beneficial and detrimental effects. Any action made in the watershed of upstream lakes to reduce phosphorus inputs should improve the water quality of all downstream lakes; however, the upstream lakes delay the response in the downstream lakes, especially in lakes where internal phosphorus loading is important.

Wisconsin↗

Forecasting stream habitat and Brook Trout responses to climate change in Catoctin Mountain Park

Anticipating and mitigating the effects of climate change is a fundamental challenge for natural resource conservation. In this report, we respond to research needs identified by Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO) for native Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) conservation and management as part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Resources Preservation Program in FY15-16. We addressed three overarching research questions: (1) How will anticipated changes in air temperature affect stream habitats? (2) How will changes to stream habitat affect the distribution of Brook Trout? (3) Which stream segments are most and least vulnerable to the effects of climate change? First, we surveyed Brook Trout abundance and fish community composition using electrofishing techniques within three watersheds: Owens Creek, upper Big Hunting Creek, and Blue Blazes Creek (a tributary to Big Hunting Creek). Second, we deployed a network of stream temperature gages to assess spatial variation in stream temperature and groundwater (GW) influence. Third, we used modeling techniques to forecast future stream temperatures that account for GW influences and air temperature scenarios. Fish sampling detected 13 species and 15,345 individual fish, the majority of which were Blacknose Dace (60%), Blue Ridge Sculpin (26%), and Brook Trout (6%). Brook Trout were not observed in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited higher densities in Owens Creek than upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 19 fish/100 m and 4 fish/100 m, respectively). In contrast, Brown Trout were present in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited greater density in Blue Blazes Creek than either Owens Creek or upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 3.0 fish/100 m, 0.3 fish/100 m, and 1.7 fish/100 m, respectively). Brown Trout occurred in sympatry with Brook Trout in Owens Creek and upper Big Hunting Creek, but appeared to have replaced Brook Trout in Blue Blazes Creek. Our fish surveys also revealed important locations for Brook Trout reproduction and young-of-year (YOY) dispersal within the Owens Creek watershed. Our study also revealed surprising differences in the distribution of Blue Ridge Sculpin among CATO streams. This species was abundant in Owens Creek (average density = 83 fish/100 m) but was less common in Blue Blazes Creek (average density = 12 fish/100 m) and was not detected in upper Big Hunting Creek. Histological examination of several specimens from Blue Blazes Creek by V. Blazer at the USGS Leetown Science Center revealed the presence of a novel parasite (Dermosystidium sp.) which has been linked to fish population declines elsewhere (Blazer et al. 2016). The parasite was not detected in Blue Ridge Sculpin samples from Owens Creek, and all trout appeared to be uninfected. Our survey results suggest that Blue Ridge Sculpin have been extirpated from upper Big Hunting Creek and have not recolonized from downstream source populations due to the fish passage barrier of Cunningham Falls. We recommend additional research to (1) evaluate the feasibility of reintroducing Blue Ridge Sculpin into upper Big Hunting Creek and (2) continue monitoring the distribution and potential spread of Dermocystidium in downstream waters. Stream temperatures ranged from 9.6 – 27.6 ºC during baseflow conditions in 2015 and 2016. Sites within upper Big Hunting Creek were consistently warmer than in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek, suggesting an effect of headwater ponds outside CATO on upper Big Hunting Creek temperatures. For instance, in 2016 the maximum observed temperature in upper Big Hunting Creek was 27.6 ºC whereas Owens Creek reached a maximum of 23.7 ºC that year. Stream temperature data also revealed that 2016 was warmer than 2015 throughout the study area but did not exceed thermal tolerance limits for Brook Trout in either year. We estimated the influence of GW on stream temperatures using a statistical modeling approach based on the relationship between daily mean air temperature and stream temperature over time. Results indicated that effects of GW were generally stronger in the Owens Creek watershed than in Blue Blazes or upper Big Hunting Creek. However, we detected substantial spatial variation in GW influence among Owens Creek sites, with stream temperatures at some locations showing relatively little GW influence and others showing very strong influences (and correspondingly small influence of daily mean air temperatures). Although incoming lateral seeps were detected in upper Big Hunting Creek (D. Ferrier, Hood College, personal communication), the strongest effects of GW in the study area were due to GW upwelling within portions of the Owens Creek watershed (i.e., Tributary C in Figure 4) where we also observed high numbers of Brook Trout juveniles. Our results therefore identified potential high-priority areas for Brook Trout conservation in CATO. Finally, we modeled future stream temperatures based on scenarios characterizing GW sensitivity to air temperature and future air temperature increases. Stream temperature forecasts revealed important differences in habitat suitability for Brook Trout within and among watersheds. Big Hunting Creek sites were generally more sensitive to air temperature increases than sites in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek. For instance, an increase in mean annual air temperature of 1.5 ºC (lowest level evaluated) exceeded thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in the majority of sites within that watershed, regardless of GW influence levels. In contrast, an air temperature increase of 1.5 ºC did not exceed thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in Owens Creek. However, modeled air temperature increases of 5 ºC resulted in a loss of Brook Trout thermal suitability throughout the study area. Model results revealed spatially patchy responses to air temperature increases that could provide an early-warning system for trout monitoring designs in CATO.

Maryland↗

Comparison of methods for estimating flood magnitudes on small streams in Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type III analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion-PESTCommander, a graphical user interface for file and run management across networks

Models of environmental systems have become increasingly complex, incorporating increasingly large numbers of parameters in an effort to represent physical processes on a scale approaching that at which they occur in nature. Consequently, the inverse problem of parameter estimation (specifically, model calibration) and subsequent uncertainty analysis have become increasingly computation-intensive endeavors. Fortunately, advances in computing have made computational power equivalent to that of dozens to hundreds of desktop computers accessible through a variety of alternate means: modelers have various possibilities, ranging from traditional Local Area Networks (LANs) to cloud computing. Commonly used parameter estimation software is well suited to take advantage of the availability of such increased computing power. Unfortunately, logistical issues become increasingly important as an increasing number and variety of computers are brought to bear on the inverse problem. To facilitate efficient access to disparate computer resources, the PESTCommander program documented herein has been developed to provide a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that facilitates the management of model files ("file management") and remote launching and termination of "slave" computers across a distributed network of computers ("run management"). In version 1.0 described here, PESTCommander can access and ascertain resources across traditional Windows LANs: however, the architecture of PESTCommander has been developed with the intent that future releases will be able to access computing resources (1) via trusted domains established in Wide Area Networks (WANs) in multiple remote locations and (2) via heterogeneous networks of Windows- and Unix-based operating systems. The design of PESTCommander also makes it suitable for extension to other computational resources, such as those that are available via cloud computing. Version 1.0 of PESTCommander was developed primarily to work with the parameter estimation software PEST; the discussion presented in this report focuses on the use of the PESTCommander together with Parallel PEST. However, PESTCommander can be used with a wide variety of programs and models that require management, distribution, and cleanup of files before or after model execution. In addition to its use with the Parallel PEST program suite, discussion is also included in this report regarding the use of PESTCommander with the Global Run Manager GENIE, which was developed simultaneously with PESTCommander.

Techniques and Methods↗

Conservation of Mexican wetlands: role of the North American Wetlands Conservation Act

Mexico's wetlands support a tremendous biological diversity and provide significant natural resource benefits to local communities. Because they are also critical stopover and wintering grounds for much of North America's waterfowl and other migratory birds, Mexico has become an important participant in continental efforts to conserve these resources through the North American Wetlands Conservation Act. Funding from the Act has supported partnerships in a number of Mexico's priority wetlands to conduct data analyses and dissemination, mapping, environmental education, wetland restoration, development of sustainable economic alternatives for local people, and reserve planning and management. These partnerships, with the close involvement of Mexico's Federal Government authority, the Instituto Nacional de Ecologia, have advanced conservation in a uniquely Mexican model that differs from that employed in the United States and Canada.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Selectivity evaluation for two experimental gill-net configurations used to sample Lake Erie walleyes

We used length frequencies of captured walleyes Sander vitreus to indirectly estimate and compare selectivity between two experimental gill-net configurations used to sample fish in Lake Erie: (1) a multifilament configuration currently used by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) with stretched-measure mesh sizes ranging from 51 to 127 mm and a constant filament diameter (0.37 mm); and (2) a monofilament configuration with mesh sizes ranging from 38 to 178 mm and varying filament diameter (range = 0.20–0.33 mm). Paired sampling with the two configurations revealed that the catch of walleyes smaller than 250 mm and larger than 600 mm was greater in the monofilament configuration than in the multifilament configuration, but the catch of 250–600-mm fish was greater in the multifilament configuration. Binormal selectivity functions yielded the best fit to observed walleye catches for both gill-net configurations based on model deviances. Incorporation of deviation terms in the binormal selectivity functions (i.e., to relax the assumption of geometric similarity) further improved the fit to observed catches. The final fitted selectivity functions produced results similar to those from the length-based catch comparisons: the monofilament configuration had greater selectivity for small and large walleyes and the multifilament configuration had greater selectivity for mid-sized walleyes. Computer simulations that incorporated the fitted binormal selectivity functions indicated that both nets were likely to result in some bias in age composition estimates and that the degree of bias would ultimately be determined by the underlying condition, mortality rate, and growth rate of the Lake Erie walleye population. Before the ODNR switches its survey gear, additional comparisons of the different gill-net configurations, such as fishing the net pairs across a greater range of depths and at more locations in the lake, should be conducted to maintain congruence in the fishery-independent survey time series.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Formation temperatures of thermogenic and biogenic methane

Methane is an important greenhouse gas and energy resource generated dominantly by methanogens at low temperatures and through the breakdown of organic molecules at high temperatures. However, methane-formation temperatures in nature are often poorly constrained. We measured formation temperatures of thermogenic and biogenic methane using a “clumped isotope” technique. Thermogenic gases yield formation temperatures between 157° and 221°C, within the nominal gas window, and biogenic gases yield formation temperatures consistent with their comparatively lower-temperature formational environments (<50°C). In systems where gases have migrated and other proxies for gas-generation temperature yield ambiguous results, methane clumped-isotope temperatures distinguish among and allow for independent tests of possible gas-formation models.

Science↗

Hydrogeologic characterization of the Yucaipa groundwater subbasin

Introduction Water management in the Santa Ana River watershed in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in southern California (fig. A1) is complex with various water purveyors navigating geographic, geologic, hydrologic, and political challenges to provide a reliable water supply to stakeholders. As the population has increased throughout southern California, so has the demand for water. The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”), one of nine groundwater subbasins in what the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) refers to as the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2016; fig. A1; the DWR naming convention is used within this report), is no exception; steady population growth since the 1940s and changes in water use have forced local water purveyors to regularly adapt their water infrastructure. Water demands within the Yucaipa subbasin have historically been supplied by groundwater, but water imported via the California State Water Project has augmented the total water supply through direct use and through anthropogenic recharge at the Wilson Creek and Oak Glen Creek spreading basins since 2002. Overall demand for groundwater continues to rise, and local water managers are concerned that despite the influx of imported water, groundwater levels may decline to a point where producing water will be uneconomical, severely limiting the ability of local agencies to meet water-supply demand. To better understand the hydrogeology and water resources in the Yucaipa subbasin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a study in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District (SBVMWD) to characterize and model the hydrologic system of the Yucaipa subbasin and the surrounding Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW; fig. A2). To gain this comprehensive understanding, a three-dimensional (3D) hydrogeologic framework model (HFM; Cromwell and Matti, 2022) was constructed to quantify the structure and extent of hydrogeologic units in the YVW; the hydrologic system was conceptualized and quantified (described in chapter A); and the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrological Model (YIHM; described in chapter B ) was developed to simulate the integrated surface-water and aquifer systems, including natural and anthropogenic recharge and discharge throughout the study area during 1947–2014.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water quality and the effects of changes in phosphorus loading to Muskellunge Lake, Vilas County, Wisconsin

Muskellunge Lake is a productive, eutrophic lake because of high nutrient loading. Historical data indicate that water quality has only slightly degraded since the early 1970s, possibly because of phosphorus input from effluent from septic systems. A detailed phosphorus budget for the lake indicated that most of the phosphorus comes from natural sources?ground water and surface water flowing through relatively undeveloped areas surrounding the lake. Modeling results indicated that the natural input of phosphorus was sufficient to maintain the lake's eutrophic condition. Analysis of sediment cores confirmed that only small changes in nutrient and algal concentrations have occurred over the past 100 years; however, the analysis indicated that the macrophyte community has increased over this time period. The aeration system, installed to alleviate winter anoxia, maintains aerobic conditions throughout the main bays of the lake.

Wisconsin↗

A Natural Resource Condition Assessment for Rocky Mountain National Park

We conducted a natural resource assessment of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) to provide a synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge to address the current conditions for a subset of important park natural resources. The intent is for this report to help provide park resource managers with data and information, particularly in the form of spatially-explicit maps and GIS databases, about those natural resources and to place emerging issues within a local, regional, national, or global context. With an advisory team, we identified the following condition indicators that would be useful to assess the condition of the park: Air and Climate: Condition of alpine lakes and atmospheric deposition Water: Extent and connectivity of wetland and riparian areas Biotic Integrity: Extent of exotic terrestrial plant species, extent of fish distributions, and extent of suitable beaver habitat Landscapes: Extent and pattern of major ecological systems and natural landscapes connectivity These indicators are summarized in the following pages. We also developed two maps of important issues for use by park managers: visitor use (thru accessibility modeling) and proportion of watersheds affected by beetle kill. Based on our analysis, we believe that there is a high degree of concern for the following indicators: condition of alpine lakes; extent and connectivity of riparian/wetland areas; extent of exotic terrestrial plants (especially below 9,500’); extent of fish distributions; extent of suitable beaver habitat; and natural landscapes and connectivity. We found a low degree of concern for: the extent and pattern of major ecological systems. The indicators and issues were also summarized by the 34 watershed units (HUC12) within the park. Generally, we found six watersheds to be in “pristine” condition: Black Canyon Creek, Comanche Creek, Middle Saint Vrain Creek, South Fork of the Cache la Poudre, Buchanan Creek, and East Inlet. Four watersheds were found to have strong restoration opportunities: Big Thompson River West, Cache la Poudre South, Colorado River North, and Onahu Creek. Ten watersheds were found to have substantial near-term issues: Aspen Brook, Big Thompson River West, Black Canyon Creek, Cabin Creek, Cache la Poudre South, Fall River, Hague Creek, La Poudre Pass Creek, North Fork Big Thompson (East), and Colorado River North.

Report↗

Wetlands in agricultural landscapes—Significant findings and recent advances from CEAP-Wetlands

The Wetlands Component of the USDA's Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP-Wetlands) is a multi-agency effort advancing science related to quantifying and interpreting effects and effectiveness of conservation practices and programs on ecosystem services provided by wetlands in agricultural landscapes. This special section originated from a symposium held at the 73rd Soil and Water Conservation Society's International Annual Conference in Albuquerque New Mexico, July 29 to August 1, 2018. The symposium was jointly organized by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service and the US Geological Survey. To facilitate CEAP-Wetlands efforts, several regional assessments were conducted across the United States. These regional assessments were designed to address science gaps hindering wetland conservation and to develop tools facilitating conservation assessments. Conservation decisions affect not just agricultural wetlands, but also the services that these complex ecosystems provide to society. Papers in this special section of the Journal of Soil and Water Conservation present key findings and recent advances from several CEAP-Wetlands regional assessments and discuss the significant contributions of each assessment to an ever-increasing understanding of wetland ecosystems and their provisioning of ecosystem services. Modeling efforts using the Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender (APEX) and other process-based models are an integral component of CEAP-Wetlands. Results of these modeling efforts are also presented, and conservation implications are discussed.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗

Characterizing and simulating sediment loads and transport in the lower part of the San Antonio River Basin

This extended abstract is based on the U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Reports by Crow et al. (2013) and Banta and Ockerman (2014). Suspended sediment in rivers and streams can play an important role in ecological health of rivers and estuaries and consequently is an important issue for water-resource managers. The quantity and type of suspended sediment can affect the biological communities (Wood and Armitage, 1997), the concentration and movement of natural constituents and anthropogenic contaminants (Moran and others, 2012), and the amount of sediment deposition in coastal environments (Milliman and Meade, 1983). To better understand suspended-sediment characteristics in the San Antonio River Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority and Texas Water Development Board, conducted a two-phase study to (1) collect and analyze sediment data to characterize sediment conditions in the San Antonio River downstream of San Antonio, Texas, and (2) develop and calibrate a watershed model to simulate hydrologic conditions and suspended-sediment loads for four watersheds in the San Antonio River Basin, downstream from San Antonio, Texas.

Texas↗

Effect of climate change on disease spread in wildlife

A growing body of evidence indicates that climate change alone, or acting synergistically with current anthropogenic threats, is affecting the health of wild populations of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Measurable by-products of climate change include elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, higher average global temperatures; variations in global precipitation patterns, rising and warming oceans, altered hydrographs of rivers, and increased mid-continental drying during summer. These consequences affect the terrestrial environment through shifts in phenology, vegetation cover, and fire regimes. Warmer ocean temperatures, increased acidification, rise in sea levels, and reduction in sea ice cover are also leading to widespread ecological changes in marine systems. Wildlife populations face a variety of climate-related pressures, such as changes in animal distribution or density, limitation of food resources, and alteration to critical habitats. The increased potential for emergence and resurgence of diseases that are responsive to environmental conditions also has implications for wildlife populations. Shifts in temperature or other climatic factors may directly affect the incidence of disease in wildlife by altering host-pathogen interactions, promoting vector populations or allowing new ranges for vectors, or reducing development times for parasites. A number of examples from both field and laboratory studies have demonstrated a clear link between warming environments and disease spread. Many climate-related environmental changes also influence wildlife health indirectly. For example, increasing temperatures, in combination with shifts in rainfall and humidity, may aggravate current trends for water resource limitation and habitat degradation or destruction and lead to increased crowding of animal populations, thereby promoting transmission opportunities of pathogens within populations or across species. Although it may be difficult to disentangle the influences of other anthropogenic changes from the direct effects of warming, some ecosystems provide especially useful models for studying climate-related disease spread in wildlife. For example, the effects of climate change on parasite dynamics may be easily observed in the Arctic, where environmental changes are occurring rapidly, anthropogenic influences are relatively limited, and biodiversity is generally low. Marine ecosystems are also undergoing rapid rates of change and may be vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Although many factors affect the health of organisms in ocean environments, temperature has been clearly linked to an increase in disease prevalence among sessile organisms such as corals. In this chapter, we discuss observed and predicted changes to wildlife health resulting from climate change. Our review will not include all aspects of wildlife health, but will instead focus on established or suspected links between climate drivers and disease spread and discuss examples from the current literature. Here, we define disease spread to include: 1) change in geographical or altitudinal distribution of pathogens, parasites, and vectors and the diseases they cause; 2) change in prevalence or severity of disease; and 3) emergence of novel diseases. Additionally, because wildlife species serve as reservoirs for zoonotic diseases that affect both animals and humans, we include select examples of the effect of climate change on the capacity of wildlife to harbor and spread these disease agents.

Book chapter↗

Estimating soil moisture, actual evapotranspiration, climatic water deficit, and groundwater recharge during periods of drought for current and future climate conditions in Hawaiʻi

Mid- and end-of-century climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands indicate that rainfall is projected to decrease across large areas. In areas affected by drought or where the future climate becomes drier, reduced groundwater recharge can affect freshwater availability. Reduced rainfall can also reduce soil moisture, which can increase the risk of wildfire. Cloud-water interception, or fog drip, is the process by which cloud-water droplets are captured on the leaves and branches of plants with some of the captured cloud water subsequently dripping to the ground. Studies in Hawaiʻi indicate that fog drip can contribute substantially to total precipitation and may have the potential to lessen the negative effects of drought or a drying climate on freshwater availability and wildfire risk. Wildfire danger assessments in the continental United States have used estimates of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (that is, the evaporative demand that exceeds available water) to improve the identification of areas at risk for wildfires. In this study, water-budget models developed for the islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi were used to quantify the effects of severe drought, future climate conditions, and reducing or eliminating fog drip on groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. Island-wide summaries of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit were developed to (1) illustrate changes between recent, drought, and future climate conditions, (2) illustrate the effects of reducing or eliminating fog drip for recent, drought, and future climate conditions, and (3) highlight areas of increased potential risk for wildfire during drought and future climate conditions. The results of these analyses can be used by natural resource managers in Hawaiʻi.

Hawaii↗