Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Movement Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Increasing accuracy of dispersal kernels in grid-based population models

Dispersal kernels in grid-based population models specify the proportion, distance and direction of movements within the model landscape. Spatial errors in dispersal kernels can have large compounding effects on model accuracy. Circular Gaussian and Laplacian dispersal kernels at a range of spatial resolutions were investigated, and methods for minimizing errors caused by the discretizing process were explored. Kernels of progressively smaller sizes relative to the landscape grid size were calculated using cell-integration and cell-center methods. These kernels were convolved repeatedly, and the final distribution was compared with a reference analytical solution. For large Gaussian kernels ( σ > 10 cells), the total kernel error was <10 −11 compared to analytical results. Using an invasion model that tracked the time a population took to reach a defined goal, the discrete model results were comparable to the analytical reference. With Gaussian kernels that had σ ≤ 0.12 using the cell integration method, or σ ≤ 0.22 using the cell center method, the kernel error was greater than 10%, which resulted in invasion times that were orders of magnitude different than theoretical results. A goal-seeking routine was developed to adjust the kernels to minimize overall error. With this, corrections for small kernels were found that decreased overall kernel error to <10 −11 and invasion time error to <5%.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2023

Differential shortstopping behaviour in Whooping Cranes: Habitat or social learning?

Many migratory bird species have begun shifting their wintering grounds closer to their breeding grounds, shortening their yearly migration distance through a behavior called shortstopping. While multiple studies have investigated possible drivers, it remains unclear why only some populations adopt this behavior. We studied the differential occurrence of shortstopping in two populations of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana): a remnant population where juveniles migrate with their parents, and a reintroduced population consisting largely of captive-reared birds trained to migrate by unrelated conspecifics or by humans. Shortstopping is widespread in the reintroduced population, while the remnant population has not shown any appreciable northward movement of its overwintering sites. We examined potential drivers for this lack of shortstopping, including a lack of suitable habitat north of their current wintering area or social differences between populations. Using characteristics of winter locations used by the reintroduced population, we found that 31.4% of the remnant migration corridor was predicted to be suitable for wintering, suggesting that insufficient habitat suitability is not limiting shortstopping behaviour. However, we found evidence for behavioural differences that might explain the absence of shortstopping in the remnant population: while all juveniles of the remnant population associate with their parents during overwintering, juveniles from the reintroduced population did not associate with older conspecifics in 12 out of 25 observed wintering events, suggesting that the social transmission of winter migration behaviours might be less effective in the reintroduced population. Although social learning is generally believed to increase flexibility in migratory strategies, a strong vertical transmission of behaviour might enforce adherence to established traditions and reduce the uptake of novel behaviours such as shortstopping. We suggest that, besides habitat availability, social factors may also play a role in explaining the absence of shortstopping behaviour in some migratory bird populations.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2021

Body size and digestive system shape resource selection by ungulates: A cross-taxa test of the forage maturation hypothesis

The forage maturation hypothesis (FMH) states that energy intake for ungulates is maximised when forage biomass is at intermediate levels. Nevertheless, metabolic allometry and different digestive systems suggest that resource selection should vary across ungulate species. By combining GPS relocations with remotely sensed data on forage characteristics and surface water, we quantified the effect of body size and digestive system in determining movements of 30 populations of hindgut fermenters (equids) and ruminants across biomes. Selection for intermediate forage biomass was negatively related to body size, regardless of digestive system. Selection for proximity to surface water was stronger for equids relative to ruminants, regardless of body size. To be more generalisable, we suggest that the FMH explicitly incorporate contingencies in body size and digestive system, with small-bodied ruminants selecting more strongly for potential energy intake, and hindgut fermenters selecting more strongly for surface water.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2010

Occam's shadow: levels of analysis in evolutionary ecology - where to next?

Evolutionary ecology is the study of evolutionary processes, and the ecological conditions that influence them. A fundamental paradigm underlying the study of evolution is natural selection. Although there are a variety of operational definitions for natural selection in the literature, perhaps the most general one is that which characterizes selection as the process whereby heritable variation in fitness associated with variation in one or more phenotypic traits leads to intergenerational change in the frequency distribution of those traits. The past 20 years have witnessed a marked increase in the precision and reliability of our ability to estimate one or more components of fitness and characterize natural selection in wild populations, owing particularly to significant advances in methods for analysis of data from marked individuals. In this paper, we focus on several issues that we believe are important considerations for the application and development of these methods in the context of addressing questions in evolutionary ecology. First, our traditional approach to estimation often rests upon analysis of aggregates of individuals, which in the wild may reflect increasingly non-random (selected) samples with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In some cases, analysis at the aggregate level, rather than the individual level, may obscure important patterns. While there are a growing number of analytical tools available to estimate parameters at the individual level, and which can cope (to varying degrees) with progressive selection of the sample, the advent of new methods does not reduce the need to consider carefully the appropriate level of analysis in the first place. Estimation should be motivated a priori by strong theoretical analysis. Doing so provides clear guidance, in terms of both (i) assisting in the identification of realistic and meaningful models to include in the candidate model set, and (ii) providing the appropriate context under which the results are interpreted. Second, while it is true that selection (as defined) operates at the level of the individual, the selection gradient is often (if not generally) conditional on the abundance of the population. As such, it may be important to consider estimating transition rates conditional on both the parameter values of the other individuals in the population (or at least their distribution), and population abundance. This will undoubtedly pose a considerable challenge, for both single- and multi-strata applications. It will also require renewed consideration of the estimation of abundance, especially for open populations. Thirdly, selection typically operates on dynamic, individually varying traits. Such estimation may require characterizing fitness in terms of individual plasticity in one or more state variables, constituting analysis of the norms of reaction of individuals to variable environments. This can be quite complex, especially for traits that are under facultative control. Recent work has indicated that the pattern of selection on such traits is conditional on the relative rates of movement among and frequency of spatially heterogeneous habitats, suggesting analyses of evolution of life histories in open populations can be misleading in some cases.

Journal of Applied Statistics↗
USGS2020

Genetic and environmental indicators of climate change vulnerability for desert bighorn sheep

Assessments of organisms’ vulnerability to potential climatic shifts are increasingly common. Such assessments are often conducted at the species level and focused primarily on the magnitude of anticipated climate change (i.e., climate exposure). However, wildlife management would benefit from population-level assessments that also incorporate measures of local or regional potential for organismal adaptation to change. Estimates of genetic diversity, gene flow, and landscape connectivity can address this need and complement climate exposure estimates to establish management priorities at broad to local scales. We provide an example of this holistic approach for desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) within and surrounding lands administered by the U.S. National Park Service. We used genetic and environmental data from 62 populations across the southwestern U.S. to delineate genetic structure, evaluate relationships between genetic diversity and isolation, and estimate relative climate vulnerability for populations as a function of five variables associated with species’ responses to climate change: genetic diversity, genetic isolation, geographic isolation, forward climate velocity within a population’s habitat patch (a measure of geographic movement rate required for an organism to maintain constant climate conditions), and maximum elevation within the habitat patch (a measure of current climate stress, as lower maximum elevation is associated with higher temperature, lower precipitation, and lower population persistence). Genetic structure analyses revealed a high-level division between populations in southeastern Utah and populations in the remainder of the study area, which were further differentiated into four lower-level genetic clusters. Genetic diversity decreased with population isolation, whereas genetic differentiation increased, but these patterns were stronger for native populations than for translocated populations. Populations exhibited large variation in predicted vulnerability across the study area with respect to all variables, but native populations occupying relatively intact landscapes, such as Death Valley and Grand Canyon national parks, had the lowest overall vulnerability. These results provide local and regional context for conservation and management decisions regarding bighorn populations in a changing climate. Our study further demonstrates how assessments combining multiple factors could allow a more integrated response, such as increasing efforts to maintain connectivity and thus potential for adaptation in areas experiencing rapid climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2023

Sediment sources and connectivity linked to hydrologic pathways and geomorphic processes: A conceptual model to specify sediment sources and pathways through space and time

Sediment connectivity is a conceptualization for the transfer and storage of sediment among different geomorphic compartments across upland landscapes and channel networks. Sediment connectivity and dysconnectivity are linked to the water cycle and hydrologic systems with the associated multiscale interactions with climate, soil, topography, ecology, and landuse/landcover under natural variability and human intervention. We review current sediment connectivity and modeling approaches evaluating and quantifying water and sediment transfer in catchment systems. Many studies highlight the interaction between sediment and water in defining landscape connectivity, but many efforts to quantify and/or simulate sediment connectivity rely on the topographic/structural controls on sediment erosion and delivery. More recent modeling efforts integrate functional and structural connectivity to capture hydrologic properties influencing sediment delivery. Though the recent modeling development is encouraging, a comprehensive sediment connectivity framework, which integrates geomorphic and hydrologic processes across spatiotemporal scales, has not yet been accomplished. Such an effort requires understanding the hydrologic and geomorphic processes that control sediment source, storage, and transport at different spatiotemporal scales and across various geophysical conditions. We propose a path for developing this new understanding through an integrated hydrologic and sediment connectivity conceptual model that broadly categorizes dominant processes and patterns relevant to understanding sediment flux dynamics. The conceptual model describes hydrologic–sediment connectivity regimes through spatial-temporal feedback between hydrologic processes and geomorphic drivers. We propose that in combining hydrologic and sediment connectivity into a single conceptual model, patterns emerge such that catchments will exist in a single characteristic behavior at a particular instance, which would shift with space and time, and with landscape disturbances. Using the conceptual model as a “thinking” tool, we extract case studies from a multidisciplinary literature review—from hydrology, geomorphology, biogeochemistry, and watershed modeling to remote-sensing technology—that correspond to each of the dominant hydrologic–sediment connectivity regimes. Sediment and water interactions in real-world examples through various observational and modeling techniques illustrate the advancements in the spatial and temporal scales of landscape connectivity observations and simulations. The conceptual model and case studies provide a foundation for advancing the understanding and predictive capability of watershed sediment processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Plain language summary: Soil erosion and movement across the landscape are closely linked to rain events and flow pathways. Landscape connectivity is a way to consider how soil erosion from different parts of the landscape is connected to the streams. We explore where soil erosion occurs and how eroded soil moves across the landscape through the interaction with rainfall and drainage. The comprehensive understanding of sediment connectivity and its dependence on rainfall characteristics and watershed hydrology may help to inform the effective distribution of conservation funds and management actions to address water pollution from excess sediment.

Frontiers in Water↗
USGS2023

Green turtle movements in the Gulf of Mexico: Tracking reveals new migration corridor and habitat use suggestive of MPA expansion

Globally, Marine Protected Areas are an important tool in the conservation of large marine vertebrates. Recent studies have highlighted the use of protected areas by imperiled green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ) in the southern Gulf of Mexico. To identify and characterize inter-nesting, migratory, and foraging areas for green turtles that nest in the northern Gulf of Mexico, we deployed 14 satellite tags on 13 individual green turtles after nesting in Northwest Florida. We used switching state-space modeling to highlight turtle use in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and in habitat outside of protected areas such as near Cape Sable, Florida and off the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. Turtles were tracked for 21–217 days and migrated for a mean of 22 days. Five individuals used stopover sites during migration; these sites were in areas of dense seagrass habitat, often within boundaries of existing Aquatic Preserves. Turtles established mean foraging home ranges of 118.0 km 2 (50% kernel density estimate) with foraging centroids that were 0.33–7.3 km apart. The area off Cape Sable, Florida, which lies outside of currently protected area boundaries, appears to be a hotspot for green turtles that nest throughout the Gulf of Mexico. While protected areas in the Gulf of Mexico are used by this subset of nesting green turtles, several key sites remain unprotected. These findings are relevant when considering expansion of currently protected areas and in defining critical habitat for this species.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Geolocators, stable isotopes, and citizen science identify migratory timing, route, and spring molt of Smith’s Longspurs

Climate change is having a disproportionate impact on the Arctic. For Arctic breeding birds, basic knowledge of their annual cycle, specifically the timing, route, and movement behavior of migration, is needed to understand when and where populations may experience threats. We used a combination of geolocators and stable isotope analysis to identify route and timing of migration in Smith’s Longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) that breed in Alaska’s Brooks Range. We trapped males on their breeding grounds from 2011 to 2014 and collected head feathers for stable isotopes of hydrogen (δ²H). We deployed 22 geolocators on a subset of individuals and retrieved four, which all overwintered in southern Texas. Individual start dates for fall migration based on geolocators were more variable than for the spring, and individuals were highly mobile while on their wintering grounds. Geolocators and stable isotope values were comparable across years and indicated that birds from the Brooks Range undergo their pre-nuptial molt in central Canada. We compared geolocator and stable isotope inferred locations to observations submitted to e-Bird and found that longspurs were distributed farther south during the winter months, but farther north during the spring than most eBird observations. Concurrent deployments of geolocator tags across Smith’s Longspurs’ breeding range would clarify whether migratory behaviors and routes are population-specific or shared widely across breeding locations.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗
USGS2018

Fish response to contemporary timber harvest practices in a second-growth forest from the central Coast Range of Oregon

We used a paired-watershed approach to investigate the effects of contemporary logging practices on headwater populations of coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) and juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in a second-growth Douglas-fir forested catchment in Oregon. Stream habitat and fish population characteristics, including biomass, abundance, growth, size, and movement, were assessed over a 9-year period (4 years pre- and 5 years postlogging). The logged catchment was located on private industrial forestland and had been previously logged in 1966. The reference catchment was covered by an unharvested, fire-regenerated forest approximately 150–160 years old, which was unroaded and managed as a Research Natural Area by the USDA Forest Service. A single clearcut harvest unit of the upper 40% of the treatment catchment was implemented following current forest practice regulations, including the retention of riparian buffer of standing trees adjacent to fish bearing channels. No statistically significant negative effects on coastal cutthroat trout or coho salmon occurred following logging, and in fact, both late-summer density and total biomass of age-1+ coastal cutthroat trout increased in the logged catchment following logging. Increases in age-1+ coastal cutthroat were greatest closest to the harvest area and declined downstream as distance from the logged area increased. In contrast to the previous timber harvest in the catchment when few logging regulations existed, current forest practice regulations and logging techniques appear to have reduced acute negative effects on coastal cutthroat trout.

Oregon↗
USGS2023

Conserving habitat for migratory ungulates: How wide is a migration corridor?

Conserving migratory ungulates relies on the analysis of GPS collar data and associated maps of migration corridors to inform management and policy actions. Current methods for identifying migratory corridors use complex statistical models designed to account for movement uncertainty rather than estimating the amount of space required by animals to migrate. Furthermore, such methods can complicate conservation efforts by producing highly variable corridor widths and non-contiguous corridors that do not fully connect seasonal ranges. To remedy, we propose an intuitive line buffer approach for delineating individual migration corridors that is simple to implement and focuses on the functional corridor widths needed by migratory ungulates. By buffering a line that connects successive GPS locations, we can delineate individual migration corridors with consistent widths that are robust to variable parameters (GPS fix rate, travel speed, tortuosity) and provide contiguous connection between seasonal ranges. Using a combination of expert knowledge, simulation and 10-min GPS collar data collected from mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ), we suggest 400–600 m are reasonable estimates of functional migration corridor widths for individuals of those species. Synthesis and applications . Our line buffer approach is intended to simplify migration corridor delineation, improve transparency and encourage a broader discussion of functional corridor widths. These considerations help advance efforts to conserve habitat within migration corridors and prioritize conservation efforts within a single corridor or across multiple corridors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2012

Spatiotemporal patterns and habitat associations of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) invading salmon-rearing habitat

1. Smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) have been widely introduced to fresh waters throughout the world to promote recreational fishing opportunities. In the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.), upstream range expansions of predatory bass, especially into subyearling salmon-rearing grounds, are of increasing conservation concern, yet have received little scientific inquiry. Understanding the habitat characteristics that influence bass distribution and the timing and extent of bass and salmon overlap will facilitate the development of management strategies that mitigate potential ecological impacts of bass. 2. We employed a spatially continuous sampling design to determine the extent of bass and subyearling Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) sympatry in the North Fork John Day River (NFJDR), a free-flowing river system in the Columbia River Basin that contains an upstream expanding population of non-native bass. Extensive (i.e. 53 km) surveys were conducted over 2 years and during an early and late summer period of each year, because these seasons provide a strong contrast in the river’s water temperature and flow condition. Classification and regression trees were applied to determine the primary habitat correlates of bass abundance at reach and channel-unit scales. 3. Our study revealed that bass seasonally occupy up to 22% of the length of the mainstem NFJDR where subyearling Chinook salmon occur, and the primary period of sympatry between these species was in the early summer and not during peak water temperatures in late summer. Where these species co-occurred, bass occupied 60–76% of channel units used by subyearling Chinook salmon in the early summer and 28–46% of the channel units they occupied in the late summer. Because these rearing salmon were well below the gape limitation of bass, this overlap could result in either direct predation or sublethal effects of bass on subyearling Chinook salmon. The upstream extent of bass increased 10–23 km (2009 and 2010, respectively) as stream temperatures seasonally warmed, but subyearling Chinook salmon were also found farther upstream during this time. 4. Our multiscale analysis suggests that bass were selecting habitat based on antecedent thermal history at a broad scale, and if satisfactory temperature conditions were met, mesoscale habitat features (i.e. channel-unit type and depth) played an additional role in determining bass abundance. The upstream extent of bass in the late summer corresponded to a high-gradient geomorphic discontinuity in the NFJDR, which probably hindered further upstream movements of bass. The habitat determinants and upstream extent of bass were largely consistent across years, despite marked differences in the magnitude and timing of spring peak flows prior to bass spawning. 5. The overriding influence of water temperature on smallmouth bass distribution suggests that managers may be able limit future upstream range expansions of bass into salmon-rearing habitat by concentrating on restoration activities that mitigate climate- or land-use-related stream warming. These management activities could be prioritised to capitalise on survival bottlenecks in the life history of bass and spatially focused on landscape knick points such as high-gradient discontinuities to discourage further upstream movements of bass.

Pacific Northwest↗
USGS2016

Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus , a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Optimizing trilateration estimates for tracking fine-scale movement of wildlife using automated radio telemetry networks

A major advancement in the use of radio telemetry has been the development of automated radio tracking systems (ARTS), which allow animal movements to be tracked continuously. A new ARTS approach is the use of a network of simple radio receivers (nodes) that collect radio signal strength (RSS) values from animal-borne radio transmitters. However, the use of RSS-based localization methods in wildlife tracking research is new, and analytical approaches critical for determining high-quality location data have lagged behind technological developments. We present an analytical approach to optimize RSS-based localization estimates for a node network designed to track fine-scale animal movements in a localized area. Specifically, we test the application of analytical filters (signal strength, distance among nodes) to data from real and simulated node networks that differ in the density and configuration of nodes. We evaluate how different filters and network configurations (density and regularity of node spacing) may influence the accuracy of RSS-based localization estimates. Overall, the use of signal strength and distance-based filters resulted in a 3- to 9-fold increase in median accuracy of location estimates over unfiltered estimates, with the most stringent filters providing location estimates with a median accuracy ranging from 28 to 73 m depending on the configuration and spacing of the node network. We found that distance filters performed significantly better than RSS filters for networks with evenly spaced nodes, but the advantage diminished when nodes were less uniformly spaced within a network. Our results not only provide analytical approaches to greatly increase the accuracy of RSS-based localization estimates, as well as the computer code to do so, but also provide guidance on how to best configure node networks to maximize the accuracy and capabilities of such systems for wildlife tracking studies.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

The seasonal energetic landscape of an apex marine carnivore, the polar bear

Divergent movement strategies have enabled wildlife populations to adapt to environmental change. In recent decades, the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) has developed a divergent movement strategy in response to diminishing sea ice where the majority of the subpopulation (73–85%) stays on the sea ice in summer and the remaining bears move to land. Although declines in sea ice are generally considered a challenge to energy balance in polar bears residing in some regions of the Arctic, little quantitative data exists concerning the seasonal energy expenditures of this apex marine carnivore. We used GPS satellite collars with tri-axial accelerometers and conductivity sensors to measure the location, behavior, and energy expenditure of five adult female polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea across seasons of sea ice breakup and minimum extent. Using a Bayesian mixed-effects model, we found that energy expenditure was influenced by month, ocean depth, and habitat type (sea ice or land). Total energy expenditure from May to October ranged from 37.7 – 47.2 mJ kg-1 for individual bears. Bears that moved to land expended 7% more energy on average from May to October than bears that remained on the receding sea ice. In August, when bears were moving from the sea ice to land or moving north with the receding pack ice, bears that moved to land spent 7% more time swimming and expended 22% more energy. Meaning the immediate cost of moving to land exceeded the cost of remaining on the receding summer pack ice. These findings suggest a physiological reason why the majority of the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation continues to inhabit a diminishing summer ice platform. However, bears that moved to land spent 29% more time in preferred hunting habitats over the continental shelf than bears that remained on the sea ice. Bears on land also had access to subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses. Hence, our findings indicate there may be a greater overall energetic benefit to move to land in this region, which suggests that the use of the diminishing summer sea ice may be functioning as an ecological trap.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2013

Evolution of a reassortant North American gull influenza virus lineage: drift, shift and stability

Background: The role of gulls in the ecology of avian influenza (AI) is different than that of waterfowl. Different constellations of subtypes circulate within the two groups of birds and AI viruses isolated from North American gulls frequently possess reassortant genomes with genetic elements from both North America and Eurasian lineages. A 2008 isolate from a Newfoundland Great Black-backed Gull contained a mix of North American waterfowl, North American gull and Eurasian lineage genes. Methods: We isolated, sequenced and phylogenetically compared avian influenza viruses from 2009 Canadian wild birds. Results: We analyzed six 2009 virus isolates from Canada and found the same phylogenetic lineage had persisted over a larger geographic area, with an expanded host range that included dabbling and diving ducks as well as gulls. All of the 2009 virus isolates contained an internal protein coding set of genes of the same Eurasian lineage genes except PB1 that was from a North American lineage, and these genes continued to evolve by genetic drift. We show evidence that the 2008 Great Black-backed Gull virus was derived from this lineage with a reassortment of a North American PA gene into the more stable core set of internal protein coding genes that has circulated in avian populations for at least 2 years. From this core, the surface glycoprotein genes have switched several times creating H13N6, H13N2, and H16N3 subtypes. These gene segments were from North American lineages except for the H16 and N3 vRNAs. Conclusions: This process appears similar to genetic shifts seen with swine influenza where a stable "triple reassortant internal gene" core has circulated in swine populations with genetic shifts occurring with hemaggluttinin and neuraminidase proteins getting periodically switched. Thus gulls may serve as genetic mixing vessels for different lineages of avian influenza, similar to the role of swine with regards to human influenza. These findings illustrate the need for continued surveillance in gull and waterfowl populations, both on the Pacific and especially Atlantic coasts of North America, to document virus intercontinental movement and the role of gull species in the evolution and epidemiology of AI.

Virology Journal↗
USGS2021

Behavioral state-dependent habitat selection and implications for animal translocations

Post-release monitoring of translocated animals is often used to inform future translocation protocols. Quantifying habitat selection of translocated individuals may help identify features that characterize good settlement habitat and thus inform the choice of future release sites. However, translocated animals often undergo post-release behavioural modification, and their habitat selection may vary depending on the underlying behavioural state. To investigate this, we analysed behavioural state-dependent habitat selection in female greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus translocated from Wyoming to North Dakota, USA, using Hidden Markov Models combined with Integrated Step Selection Analysis. We segmented individual trajectories into behavioural phases corresponding to an exploratory state, characterized by broad and directed movements, and a restricted state, characterized by short and tortuous movements. Then, we quantified habitat selection in each state while accounting for seasonality and individual reproductive status. While in the exploratory state, sage-grouse exhibited natal habitat preference induction by selecting for high sagebrush cover, which is typical of their natal area in Wyoming but not of the release area in North Dakota. In the restricted state, sage-grouse selected for gentle topography and also adjusted their habitat selection to constraints imposed by seasonality and reproductive needs by selecting for high herbaceous cover during brood rearing. Synthesis and applications . Habitat selection of translocated sage-grouse differed between the post-release exploration and the settlement phase. Features selected after settling, not during exploration, are likely indicative of suitable settlement habitat. Our results suggest that areas characterized by gentle topography and high herbaceous cover are well-suited as release sites for sage-grouse translocated during the summer, especially brood-rearing females, and that sagebrush cover may not be a critical factor in determining the appropriateness of release sites for sage-grouse in North Dakota. Our findings highlight the need to consider behaviour when using habitat selection estimates to inform the choice of future release sites.

North Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗