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Earthquake-hazard exposure of residents with potential access and functional needs in the United States

Earthquake response plans and earthquake early warning (EEW) systems designed for general populations may not consider potential access and functional needs (AFN) of individuals with physical, sensory, cognitive, or social limitations. Previous efforts to map the distribution of these populations have focused on social-vulnerability indices that ignore or oversimply these limitations. The descriptive and exploratory analysis summarized in this United States (U.S.) case study addresses this gap by identifying and integrating spatially explicit data for AFN-related residential populations, earthquake hazards, and county and county equivalents for the conterminous U.S., Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We focus on 13 AFN-related attributes that relate to an individual's ability to access information contained in an EEW alert, to understand and process earthquake information or observed ground shaking, and to take self-protective actions based on this information and physical cues of an earthquake. Depending on the demographic attribute, there are millions to tens of millions of U.S. residents with AFN-related attributes in areas considered to have varying likelihoods (2%, 10%, and 50%) of exceedance of a damaging earthquake in the next 50 years. Although these amounts represent low percentages at the national level, the percentage of individuals with AFN-related attributes in many counties and county equivalents substantially exceeds national percentages. No one county, county equivalent, U.S. state, or U.S. territory has the highest percentage of individuals in all AFN-related attributes; therefore, future efforts to increase individual resilience to earthquakes may benefit from understanding the local context of individuals with potential access and functional needs.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Detection and mapping of hydrocarbon deposits on Titan

We report the identification of compounds on Titan's surface by spatially resolved imaging spectroscopy methods through Titan's atmosphere, and set upper limits to other organic compounds. We present evidence for surface deposits of solid benzene (C 6 H 6 ), solid and/or liquid ethane (C 2 H 6 ), or methane (CH 4 ), and clouds of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) aerosols using diagnostic spectral features in data from the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS). Cyanoacetylene (2-propynenitrile, IUPAC nomenclature, HC 3 N) is indicated in spectra of some bright regions, but the spectral resolution of VIMS is insufficient to make a unique identification although it is a closer match to the feature previously attributed to CO 2 . We identify benzene, an aromatic hydrocarbon, in larger abundances than expected by some models. Acetylene (C 2 H 2 ), expected to be more abundant on Titan according to some models than benzene, is not detected. Solid acetonitrile (CH 3 CN) or other nitriles might be candidates for matching other spectral features in some Titan spectra. An as yet unidentified absorption at 5.01- μ m indicates that yet another compound exists on Titan's surface. We place upper limits for liquid methane and ethane in some locations on Titan and find local areas consistent with millimeter path lengths. Except for potential lakes in the southern and northern polar regions, most of Titan appears “dry.” Finally, we find there is little evidence for exposed water ice on the surface. Water ice, if present, must be covered with organic compounds to the depth probed by 1–5- μ m photons: a few millimeters to centimeters.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets

Influence of monsoon-related riparian phenology on yellow-billed cuckoo habitat selection in Arizona

Aim: The western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis), a Neotropical migrant bird, is facing steep population declines in its western breeding grounds owing primarily to loss of native habitat. The favoured esting habitat for the cuckoo in the south-western United States is low-elevation riparian forests and woodlands. Our aim was to explore relationships between vegetation phenology patterns captured by satellite phenometrics and the distribution of the yellow-billed cuckoo, and to use this information to map cuckoo habitat. Location: Arizona, USA. Methods: Land surface phenometrics were derived from satellite Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), bi-weekly time-composite, ormalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for 1998 and 1999 at a resolution of 1 km. Fourier harmonics were used to analyse the waveform of the annual NDVI profile in each pixel. To create the models, we coupled 1998 satellite phenometrics with 1998 field survey data of cuckoo presence or absence and with point data that sampled riparian and cottonwood–willow vegetation types. Our models were verified and refined using field and satellite data collected in 1999. Results: The models reveal that cuckoos prefer areas that experience peak greenness 29 days later, are 36% more dynamic and slightly (< 1%) more productive than their average cottonwood–willow habitat. The results support a scenario in which cuckoos migrate northwards, following the greening of riparian corridors and surrounding landscapes in response to monsoon precipitation, but then select a nesting site based on optimizing the near-term foraging potential of the neighbourhood. Main conclusions: The identification of preferred phenotypes within recognized habitat can be used to refine future habitat models, inform habitat response to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies. For example, models of phenotype preferences can guide management actions by identifying and prioritizing for conservation those landscapes that reliably exhibit highly preferred phenometrics on a consistent basis.

Arizona

Non-water-ice constituents in the surface material of the icy Galilean satellites from the Galileo near-infrared mapping spectrometer investigation

We present evidence for several non‐ice constituents in the surface material of the icy Galilean satellites, using the reflectance spectra returned by the Galileo near infrared mapping spectrometer (NIMS) experiment. Five new absorption features are described at 3.4, 3.88, 4.05, 4.25, and 4.57 μm for Callisto and Ganymede, and some seem to exist for Europa as well. The four absorption bands strong enough to be mapped on Callisto and Ganymede are each spatially distributed in different ways, indicating different materials are responsible for each absorption. The spatial distributions are correlated at the local level in complex ways with surface features and in some cases show global patterns. Suggested candidate spectrally active groups, perhaps within larger molecules, producing the five absorptions include C‐H, S‐H, SO 2 , CO 2 , and C≡N. Organic material like tholins are candidates for the 4.57‐ and 3.4‐μm features. We suggest, based on spectroscopic evidence, that CO 2 is present as a form which does not allow rotational modes and that SO 2 is present neither as a frost nor a free gas. The CO 2 , SO 2 , and perhaps cyanogen (4.57 μm) may be present as very small collections of molecules within the crystal structure, perhaps following models for radiation damage and/or for comet and interstellar grain formation at low temperatures. Some of the dark material on these surfaces may be created by radiation damage of the CO 2 and other carbon‐bearing species and the formation of graphite. These spectra suggest a complex chemistry within the surface materials and an important role for non‐ice materials in the evolution of the satellite surfaces.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

Land loss due to recent hurricanes in coastal Louisiana, U.S.A.

The aim of this study is to improve estimates of wetland land loss in two study regions of coastal Louisiana, U.S.A., due to the extreme storms that impacted the region between 2004 and 2009. The estimates are based on change-detection-mapping analysis that incorporates pre and postlandfall (Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike) fractional-water classifications using a combination of high-resolution (<5 m) QuickBird, IKONOS, and GeoEye-1, and medium-resolution (30 m) Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery. This process was applied in two study areas: the Hackberry area located in the southwestern part of chenier plain that was impacted by Hurricanes Rita (September 24, 2005) and Ike (September 13, 2008), and the Delacroix area located in the eastern delta plain that was impacted by Hurricanes Katrina (August 29, 2005) and Gustav (September 1, 2008). In both areas, effects of the hurricanes include enlargement of existing bodies of open water and erosion of fringing marsh areas. Surge-removed marsh was easily identified in stable marshes but was difficult to identify in degraded or flooded marshes. Persistent land loss in the Hackberry area due to Hurricane Rita was approximately 5.8% and increased by an additional 7.9% due to Hurricane Ike, although this additional area may yet recover. About 80% of the Hackberry study area remained unchanged since 2003. In the Delacroix area, persistent land loss due to Hurricane Katrina measured approximately 4.9% of the study area, while Hurricane Gustav caused minimal impact of 0.6% land loss by November 2009. Continued recovery in this area may further erase Hurricane Gustav's impact in the absence of new storm events.

Louisiana

Rupture continuity through intermittent pauses in Cascadia slow slip events

Cascadia slow slip events (SSEs) are often envisioned as smooth, continuous ruptures, progressively activating tremor asperities as they propagate. Macroscopically, geodetic inversions and spatiotemporal maps of tremor epicenters show steady, uniform migration. In detail tremor is more chaotic and discontinuous. Larger long-term SSEs observed in daily geodetic solutions are inferred to exhibit intermittent pauses that reflect temporary re-locking of the fault, but this temporal resolution limits tests for similar re-locking on shorter timescales. We use temporal measurements of the areal growth and radiated energy of tremor clusters to investigate SSE intermittence. We find that ruptures mirror tremor pauses. Areal growth rate, however, does not reset, and removing the pauses results in smoother and more similar growth measurements among all SSEs. The rupture similarity occurs regardless of size or location and hints at an underlying uniformity and lack of predeterminism in eventual SSE size. Epicentral uncertainty precludes quantifying early rupture stages, but for larger events areal growth follows a power-law and slows with increasing size. Temporal correlations in tremor energy with inferred SSE propagation velocities and tremor rates suggest its use as a proxy for slip velocity. We find that tremor energy is tidally modulated at daily and sub-daily frequencies, and this modulation is continuous through pauses, suggesting a memory of slip state is sustained through them. We argue these pauses reflect unsteady propagation of the slip front, marked by rapid re- and un-locking, and excluding them removes rupture complexity to reveal a diffusive-like slip process and underlying universality in growth.

California, Oregon, Washington

Integrating socioecological suitability with human-wildlife conflict risk: Case study for translocation of a large ungulate

Translocations are essential for re-establishing wildlife populations. As they sometimes fail, it is critical to assess factors that influence their success pre-translocation. Socioecological suitability models (SESMs) integrate social acceptance and ecological suitability to enable identification of areas where wildlife populations will expand, which makes it likely that SESMs will also be useful for predicting translocation success. To inform site selection for potential elk Cervus canadensis reintroduction to north-eastern Minnesota, United States, we developed broadscale maps of social acceptance from surveys of local residents and landowners, animal use equivalence (AUE) from forage measured in the field and empirical conflict risk from geospatial data. Resulting SESMs integrated social acceptance favourability scores, AUE and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs showed the relative influences of acceptance and conflict. Social acceptance was positive for local residents and landowners (mean ≥ 5.4; scale of 1–7). AUE (scaled to an elk home range) ranged between 1 and 9 elk/16 km 2 during winter, and from 14 to 83 elk/16 km 2 during summer. Human–elk conflict risk was low (mean ≤ 0.10; scaled 0–1), increasing from north to south. Geographical distributions differed for social acceptance, AUE and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs revealed unsuitable areas that were otherwise obscured. Synthesis and applications . Integrating human–wildlife conflict risk into SESMs shows where social acceptance of translocated species is likely to erode, even where viewed favourably pre-translocation, to inform translocation planning by highlighting interactions between key factors. Such integrated models supplement existing reintroduction biology frameworks by supporting decision-making and knowledge development. In north-eastern Minnesota, natural resource managers who are considering elk reintroductions are using SESMs reported here to identify where human–elk conflict is unlikely to result in an isolated elk population and where addressing concerns for area residents about conflict risk is essential.

Minnesota

Finding concealed active faults: Extending the southern Whidbey Island fault across the Puget Lowland, Washington

The southern Whidbey Island fault zone (SWIF), as previously mapped using borehole data, potential field anomalies, and marine seismic reflection surveys, consists of three subparallel, northwest trending strands extending ∼100 km from near Vancouver Island to the northern Puget Lowland. East of Puget Sound, the SWIF makes landfall between the cities of Seattle and Everett but is concealed beneath a thick mantle of young glacial deposits and vegetation. A ∼20‐km‐wide, northwest trending swath of subparallel, low‐amplitude aeromagnetic anomalies crosses this region of the Puget Lowland and is on strike with the SWIF. The most prominent aeromagnetic anomaly, the Cottage Lake lineament, extends at least 18 km and lies approximately on strike with the SWIF on Whidbey Island. Subtle scarps and topographic lineaments on Pleistocene surfaces, visible on high‐resolution lidar topography at a number of locations along the SWIF, lie on or near these magnetic anomalies. In the field, scarps exhibit northeast‐side‐up and vertical relief of 1 to 5 m. Excavations across several lidar scarps lying on or near magnetic anomalies show evidence for multiple folding and faulting events since deglaciation, most likely above buried reverse/oblique faults. Excavations in areas away from magnetic anomalies do not show evidence of tectonic deformation. In total, paleoseismological evidence suggests that the SWIF produced at least four earthquakes since deglaciation about 16,400 years ago, the most recent less than 2700 years ago.

Washington

Submarine deposition of a subaerial landslide in Taan Fiord, Alaska

A large subaerial landslide entered Taan Fiord, Alaska, on 17 October 2015 producing a tsunami with runup to 193 m. We use LiDAR data to show the slide volume to be 76 + 3/−4 million cubic meters and that 51,000,000 m 3 entered Taan Fiord. In 2016, we mapped the fjord with multibeam bathymetry and high‐resolution seismic data. Landslide and postlandslide deposits extend 6 km downfjord, are up to 70 ± 11 m thick, and have a total volume of ~147,000,000 m 3 . Seismic data image a blocky landslide unit and two units deposited immediately after the landslide. The blocky landslide unit is ~65,000,000 m 3 . We infer it consists dominantly of subaerially derived material and secondarily of fjord floor sediment. The overlying units are likely megaturbidites presumably deposited within minutes to days after the landslide. We infer that these deposits dominantly consist of fjord floor material mobilized and suspended as the slide entered and traveled downfjord. The lower postlandslide unit is up to 35 ± 6 m thick, and the upper unit is up to 12 ± 3 m thick. These deposits are distinctive and will leave a lasting record of the event. This subaerial‐to‐submarine landslide deposit is distinct from other submarine landslide deposits studied in Alaskan fjords because it has a much greater thickness, larger and more angular blocks, distinctive postlandslide megaturbidites, and a higher‐amplitude acoustic signature of the blocky deposit. The tight constraints on the landslide source and deposit volumes, topography, bathymetry, and tsunami runup heights and flow directions should make this a benchmark site for landslide‐tsunami models.

Alaska

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55°N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55??N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (???200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (???200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Evaluation of sulfur dioxide emissions from explosive volcanism: the 1982-1983 eruptions of Galunggung, Java, Indonesia

Galunggung volcano, Java, awoke from a 63-year quiescence in April 1982, and erupted sporadically through January 1983. During its most violent period from April to October, the Cikasasah Volcano Observatory reported 32 large and 56 moderate to small eruptions. From April 5 through September 19 the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), carried on NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite, detected and measured 24 different sulfur dioxide clouds; an estimated 1730 kilotons (kt) of SO2 were outgassed by these explosive eruptions. The trajectories, and rapid dispersion rates, of the SO2 clouds were consistent with injection altitudes below the tropopause. An additional 300 kt of SO2 were estimated to have come from 64 smaller explosive eruptions, based on the detection limit of the TOMS instrument. For the first time, an extended period of volcanic activity was monitored by remote sensing techniques which enabled observations of both the entire SO2 clouds produced by large explosive eruptions (using TOMS), and the relatively lower levels of SO2 emissions during non-explosive outgassing (using the Correlation Spectrometer, or COSPEC). Based on COSPEC measurements from August 1982 to January 1983, and on the relationship between explosive and non-explosive degassing, approximately 400 kt of SO2 were emitted during non-explosive activity. The total sulfur dioxide outgassed from Galunggung volcano from April 1982 to January 1983 is calculated to be 2500 kt (?? 30%) from both explosive and non-explosive activity. While Galunggung added large quantities of sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere, its sporadic emissions occurred in relatively small events distributed over several months, and reached relatively low altitudes, and are unlikely to have significantly affected aerosol loading of the stratosphere in 1982 by volcanic activity. ?? 1994.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Self-gravity wake structures in Saturn's a ring revealed by Cassini vims

During the summer of 2005, the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer onboard the Cassini spacecraft observed a series of occultations of the star o Ceti (Mira) by Saturn's rings. These observations revealed pronounced variations in the optical depth of the A ring with longitude, which can be attributed to oriented structures in the rings known as self-gravity wakes. While the wakes themselves are only tens of meters across and below the resolution of the measurements, we are able to obtain information about the orientation and shapes of these structures by comparing the observed transmission at different longitudes with predictions from a simple model. Our findings include the following: (1) The orientation of the wakes varies systematically with radius, trailing by between 64?? and 72?? relative to the local radial direction. (2) The maximum transmission peaks at roughly 8% for B = 3.45?? in the middle A ring (???129,000 km). (3) Both the wake orientation and maximum transmission vary anomalously in the vicinity of two strong density waves (Janus 5:4 and Mimas 5:3). (4) The ratio of the wake vertical thickness H to the wake pattern wavelength ?? (assuming infinite, straight, regularly-spaced wake structures) varies from 0.12 to 0.09 across the A ring. Gravitational instability theory predicts ?? ??? 60 m, which suggests that the wake structures in the A ring are only ???6 m thick. ?? 2007. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Astronomical Journal

Thermal thickness and evolution of Precambrian lithosphere: A global study

The thermal thickness of Precambrian lithosphere is modeled and compared with estimates from seismic tomography and xenolith data. We use the steady state thermal conductivity equation with the same geothermal constraints for all of the Precambrian cratons (except Antarctica) to calculate the temperature distribution in the stable continental lithosphere. The modeling is based on the global compilation of heat flow data by Pollack et al. [1993] and more recent data. The depth distribution of heat‐producing elements is estimated using regional models for ∼300 blocks with sizes varying from 1°×1° to about 5°×5° in latitude and longitude and is constrained by laboratory, seismic and petrologic data and, where applicable, empirical heat flow/heat production relationships. Maps of the lateral temperature distribution at depths 50, 100, and 150 km are presented for all continents except Antarctica. The thermal thickness of the lithosphere is calculated assuming a conductive layer overlying the mantle with an adiabat of 1300°C. The Archean and early Proterozoic lithosphere is found to have two typical thicknesses, 200–220 km and 300–350 km. In general, thin (∼220 km) roots are found for Archean and early Proterozoic cratons in the Southern Hemisphere (South Africa, Western Australia, South America, and India) and thicker (>300 km) roots are found in the Northern Hemisphere (Baltic Shield, Siberian Platform, West Africa, and possibly the Canadian Shield). We find that the thickness of continental lithosphere generally decreases with age from >200 km beneath Archean cratons to intermediate values of 200±50 km in early Proterozoic lithosphere, to about 140±50 km in middle and late Proterozoic cratons. Using known crustal thickness, our calculated geotherms, and assuming that isostatic balance is achieved at the base of the lithosphere, we find that Archean and early Proterozoic mantle lithosphere is 1.5% less dense (chemically depleted) than the underlying asthenosphere, while middle and late Proterozoic subcrustal lithosphere should be depleted by ∼0.6–0.7%. Our results suggest three contrasting stages of lithosphere formation at the following ages: >2.5 Ga, 2.5–1.8 Ga, and <1.8 Ga. Ages of komatiites, greenstone belts, and giant dike swarms broadly define similar stages and apparently reflect secular changes in mantle temperature and, possibly, convection patterns.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Tectonic evolution of the central Brooks Range mountain front: Evidence from the Atigun Gorge region

Atigun Gorge, at the northern front of the eastern Endicott Mountains, contains well-exposed rocks of the upper part of the Endicott Mountains allochthon and rocks of the structurally higher Picnic Creek or Ipnavik River allochthon. These allochthons contain rocks as young as Early Cretaceous (Valanginian) and are separated by a nearly vertical fault zone that contains exotic blocks of Triassic and Jurassic chert and silicified mudstone. Siliceous rocks of this type are not present in the Endicott Mountains allochthon but are characteristic of the Picnic Creek, Ipnavik River, and some of the other allochthons that structurally overlie the Endicott Mountains allochthon in the central and western Brooks Range. These exotic blocks, therefore indicate that structurally higher rocks of either the Picnic Creek or Ipnavik River allochthon were emplaced during the Early Cretaceous and are preserved along the northern flank of the eastern Endicott Mountains. The deformed thickness of this higher allochthon in the subsurface north of the mountains is unknown but probably exceeds 2 kilometers. Similar relations are mapped east of Atigun Gorge in an area of structural transition from the eastern Endicott Mountains into the northern Philip Smith Mountains, which are formed by the parautochthonous North Slope stratigraphic assemblage. The allochthonous rocks at the mountain front are regionally unconformably overlain by proximal Lower Cretaceous (Albian) foredeep conglomerate at the southern flank of the Colville basin, but at Atigun Gorge, the base of these deposits is interpreted as a possible back thrust at a triangle zone. Conglomerate clasts in the foredeep deposits are dominantly chert, mafic igneous rock, and other lithologies characteristic of the Picnic Creek and Ipnavik River allochthons and scattered clasts from the Endicott Mountains allochthon. The conglomerates show that the chert-rich allochthonous rocks and the Endicott Mountains allochthon were emplaced in the north-central Brooks Range by large-scale crustal shortening (>300 km) between the Valanginian and Albian (∼135 to ∼112 Ma). This orogenic event significantly postdates early stages of Brooks Range orogeny but predates later stages of orogeny documented by stratigraphic and apatite fission-track data. These relations reduce the magnitude of shortening inferred at the triangle zone at the Brooks Range mountain front. The outcrop data suggest that some of the strata preserved at a structurally low level north of the mountain front and visible in the seismic data of the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT) may consist of clastic sedimentary rocks of the structurally higher Picnic Creek or Ipnavik River allochthon.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Investigation of scale-dependent groundwater/surface-water exchange in rivers by gradient self-potential logging: Numerical modeling and field experiments

Exchanges of groundwater and surface-water are fundamental to a wide range of water-supply and water-quality management issues but challenging to map beyond the reach scale. Waterborne gradient self-potential (SP) measurements are directly sensitive to water flow through riverbed sediments and can be used to infer exchange locations, direction (gain versus loss), scale, and relative changes, but to date applications to river corridor hydrology are limited. Numerical modeling and field experiments were therefore performed herein, each emphasizing waterborne gradient SP logging for identifying and locating focused vertical groundwater discharge (surface-water gain) and recharge (surface-water loss) in a river. Two and three-dimensional numerical models were constructed to simulate the polarities, appearances, and peak amplitudes of streaming-potential and electric-field anomalies on a riverbed and in the surface-water that were attributable to steady-state vertical fluxes of groundwater through high-permeability conduits in the riverbed. Effects of varied hydraulic length-scale of exchange and surface-water depth were tested through numerical modeling. Modeling results aided in data acquisition and interpretation for three repeated field experiments performed along a 1.5–2.0 km reach of the Quashnet River in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where focused, meter-scale groundwater discharges occur at discrete locations within otherwise ubiquitous and more diffuse groundwater upwelling conditions. Strong gradient SP anomalies were repeatedly measured in the Quashnet River at previously confirmed locations of focused groundwater discharge, showing the efficacy of waterborne gradient SP logging in identifying and characterizing groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics at multiple river network scales.

Massachusetts

Resilience of predators to fishing pressure on coral patch reefs

Numbers and biomass of piscivorous fish and their predation on other fish may often be high in undisturbed coral reef communities. The effects of such predation have sometimes been studied by removal of piscivores (either experimentally or by fishermen). Such perturbations have usually involved removal of large, highly vulnerable, mobile piscivores that are often actively sought in fisheries. The effects of fishing on smaller, demersal, semi-resident piscivores have been little studied. We studied such effects on the fish communities of patch reefs at Midway atoll by experimentally removing major resident, demersal, piscivorous fishes. First, four control reefs and four experimental reefs were selected, their dimensions and habitats mapped, and their visible fish communities censused repeatedly over 1 year. Census of all control and experimental reefs was continued for the following 39 months, during which known piscivores were collected repeatedly by hand spearing. Records were kept of catch and effort to calculate CPUE as an index of predator density. Spearfishing on the experimental reefs removed 2504 piscivorous fish from 12 families and 43 taxa (mostly species). The species richness of the catch did not show an overall change over the duration of the experiment. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed some unexpected positive correlations for density in numbers and biomass of major fished piscivorous groups (especially lizardfish) over the experiment. Only two relatively minor fished piscivorous taxa declined in abundance over the experiment, while the overall abundance of piscivores increased. Visual censuses of fish on the experimental reefs also failed to show reduction of total piscivores over the full experimental period. No significant trend in the abundance of lizardfish censused over the full period was apparent on any of the control reefs. The high resilience of piscivores on these experimental reefs to relatively intense fishing pressure could result from their protracted recruitment seasons, high immigration rates, cryptic habits, or naturally high abundances. A major factor was the high immigration rates of lizardfish, replacing lizardfish and other less mobile piscivores removed from the reefs by spearing. On the fished reefs, the removed lizardfish population replaced itself >20 times during the experiment; other piscivorous taxa replaced themselves only 5 times.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology

Indications of preferential groundwater seepage feeding northern peatland pools

Groundwater seepage from underlying permeable glacial sedimentary structures, such as eskers, has been hypothesized to directly feed pools in northern peat bogs. These hypotheses directly contradict classical peat bog models for ombrogenous systems, wherein meteoric water is the sole water input to these systems. Variations in the underlying mineral sediment in contact with the peat imply that unrecognized hydrogeologic connectivity may exist with pools in northern peat bogs, particularly where high permeability materials are in contact with the peat. Seepage dynamics originating from these structural variations were investigated using a suite of thermal and hydrogeophysical methods deployed around pools in a peat bog of northeastern Maine, USA. Thermal characterization methods mapped anomalies that were confirmed as matrix seepage or preferential flow pathways (PFPs). Geochemical methods were employed at identified thermal anomalies to confirm upwelling of solute-rich groundwater. Conduits around pools were associated with surficial terminations of suspected peat pipes, based on the inference of pathways extending down into the peat, that focus flow through PFPs in the peat matrix. Discharge also occurred through the peat matrix adjacent to suspected pipe structures and matrix seepage rates were quantified using analysis of diurnal temperature signals recorded at multiple depths. Seepage rates, with a maximum of nearly 0.4 m/d, were measured at localized points around pools. Periods of synchronized temperatures paired with highly muted diurnal temperature signals, recorded in diurnal temperature with depth data, were interpreted qualitatively as activation of strong upward discharge rates through suspected peat pipes. These time periods correlated strongly with local precipitation events around the peatland. Ground-penetrating radar surveys revealed discontinuities in the low permeability glacio-marine clay at the mineral sediment-peat interface, interpreted to be regional glacial esker deposits, which were located beneath and around pools. Heat tracing, specific conductance contrasts, seepage rates, and trace metal concentrations all imply groundwater seepage originating from underlying permeable glacial esker deposits and directly sourcing pools. Preferential groundwater inputs into northern peat bogs may play a key role in developing and maintaining pool systems, with enhanced solute transport impacting peatland ecology, water resources, and carbon cycling.

Maine

Evaluation of gas production potential from gas hydrate deposits in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska using numerical simulations

An evaluation of the gas production potential of Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation in the eastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) of Alaska North Slope (ANS) is conducted using numerical simulations, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gas hydrate Life Cycle Assessment program. A field scale reservoir model for Sunlight Peak is developed using Advanced Processes & Thermal Reservoir Simulator (STARS) that approximates the production design and response of this gas hydrate field. The reservoir characterization is based on available structural maps and the seismic-derived hydrate saturation map of the study region. A 3D reservoir model, with heterogeneous distribution of the reservoir properties (such as porosity, permeability and vertical hydrate saturation), is developed by correlating the data from the Mount Elbert well logs. Production simulations showed that the Sunlight Peak prospect has the potential of producing 1.53 × 10 9 ST m 3 of gas in 30 years by depressurization with a peak production rate of around 19.4 × 10 4 ST m 3 /day through a single horizontal well. To determine the effect of uncertainty in reservoir properties on the gas production, an uncertainty analysis is carried out. It is observed that for the range of data considered, the overall cumulative production from the Sunlight Peak will always be within the range of ±4.6% error from the overall mean value of 1.43 × 10 9 ST m 3 . A sensitivity analysis study showed that the proximity of the reservoir from the base of permafrost and the base of hydrate stability zone (BHSZ) has significant effect on gas production rates. The gas production rates decrease with the increase in the depth of the permafrost and the depth of BHSZ. From the overall analysis of the results it is concluded that Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation behaves differently than other Class III reservoirs (Class III reservoirs are composed of a single layer of hydrate with no underlying zone of mobile fluids) due to its smaller thickness and high angle of dip.

Alaska