Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Estuaries”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS1992

Sources of nitrogen and phosphorous to northern San Francisco Bay

We studied nutrient sources to the Sacramento River and Suisun Bay (northern San Francisco Bay) and the influence which these sources have on the distributions of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) in the river and bay. We found that agricultural return flow drains and a municipal wastewater treatment plant were the largest sources of nutrients to the river during low river flow. The Sutter and Colusa agricultural drains contributed about 70% of the transport of DIN and DRP by the river above Sacramento (about 20% of the total transport by the river) between August 8 and September 26, 1985. Further downstream, the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant discharged DIN and DRP at rates that were roughly 70% of total DIN and DRP transport by the river at that time. Concentrations at Rio Vista on the tidal river below the Sacramento plant and at the head of the estuary were related to the reciprocals of the river flows, indicating the importance of dilution of the Sacramento waste by river flows. During very dry years, elevated DIN and DRP concentrations were observed in Suisun Bay. We used a steady-state, one-dimensional, single-compartment box model of the bay, incorporating terms for advection, exchange, and waste input, to calculate a residual rate for all processes not included in the model. We found that the residual for DIN was related to concentrations of chlorophylla (Chla). The residual for DRP was also related to Chla at high concentrations of Chla, but showed significant losses of DRP at low Chla concentrations. These losses were typically equivalent to about 80% of the wastewater input rate.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2009

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2017

Impacts of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine ecosystems: An introduction to a special issue

The nearshore land-water interface is an important ecological zone that faces anthropogenic pressure from development in coastal regions throughout the world. Coastal waters and estuaries like Chesapeake Bay receive and process land discharges loaded with anthropogenic nutrients and other pollutants that cause eutrophication, hypoxia, and other damage to shallow-water ecosystems. In addition, shorelines are increasingly armored with bulkhead (seawall), riprap, and other structures to protect human infrastructure against the threats of sea-level rise, storm surge, and erosion. Armoring can further influence estuarine and nearshore marine ecosystem functions by degrading water quality, spreading invasive species, and destroying ecologically valuable habitat. These detrimental effects on ecosystem function have ramifications for ecologically and economically important flora and fauna. This special issue of Estuaries and Coasts explores the interacting effects of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems. The majority of papers focus on the Chesapeake Bay region, USA, where 50 major tributaries and an extensive watershed (~ 167,000 km 2 ), provide an ideal model to examine the impacts of human activities at scales ranging from the local shoreline to the entire watershed. The papers consider the influence of watershed land use and natural versus armored shorelines on ecosystem properties and processes as well as on key natural resources.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2018

Fish-habitat relationships along the estuarine gradient of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California: Implications for habitat restoration

Estuaries are highly variable environments where fish are subjected to a diverse suite of habitat features (e.g., water quality gradients, physical structure) that filter local assemblages from a broader, regional species pool. Tidal, climatological, and oceanographic phenomena drive water quality gradients and, ultimately, expose individuals to other habitat features (e.g., stationary physical or biological elements, such as bathymetry or vegetation). Relationships between fish abundances, water quality gradients, and other habitat features in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta were examined as a case example to learn how habitat features serve as filters to structure local assemblages in large river-dominated estuaries. Fish communities were sampled in four tidal lakes along the estuarine gradient during summer-fall 2010 and 2011 and relationships with habitat features explored using ordination and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Based on ordination results, landscape-level gradients in salinity, turbidity, and elevation were associated with distinct fish assemblages among tidal lakes. Native fishes were associated with increased salinity and turbidity, and decreased elevation. Within tidal lakes, GLMM results demonstrated that submersed aquatic vegetation density was the dominant driver of individual fish species densities. Both native and non-native species were associated with submersed aquatic vegetation, although native and non-native fish populations only minimally overlapped. These results help to provide a framework for predicting fish species assemblages in novel or changing habitats as they indicate that species assemblages are driven by a combination of location within the estuarine gradient and site-specific habitat features.

California↗
USGS2018

Stable isotope analysis enhances our understanding of diamondback terrapin Malaclemys terrapin foraging ecology

Dietary studies on generalist predators may provide valuable information on spatial or temporal changes in the structure of ecological communities. We initiated this study to provide baseline data and determine the utility of stable isotope analysis (SIA) to evaluate the foraging strategies of an opportunistic reptilian predator, the diamondback terrapin ( Malaclemys terrapin ), which specializes in salt marshes and mangrove estuaries along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We evaluated stable carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotope values of multiple tissues from terrapins inhabiting mainland and island mangrove habitats in south Florida and potential food sources to examine spatial and temporal variations in terrapin resource use. We fit linear regression models to determine the best predictors of isotopic values for both terrapins and their prey, and Stable Isotope Bayesian Ellipses in R (SIBER) analysis to examine terrapin isotopic niche space and overlap between groups. We identified differences in terrapin isotopic δ 13 C and δ 15 N values among all sites. Blood and scute tissues revealed different isotopic compositions and niche overlap between sites, suggesting diets or foraging locations may change over time, and amount of variation is site specific. Niche overlap between size classes was larger for blood (short term) versus scute (long term), suggesting greater variability in food habits or resource isotopes over the long term versus short term. These results demonstrate the usefulness of SIA in examining the spatial and temporal variability in diamondback terrapin resource use within estuary systems and further define their niche within these dynamic food webs.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2019

A mosaic of estuarine habitat types with prey resources from multiple environmental strata supports a diversified foraging portfolio for juvenile Chinook salmon

Estuaries provide vital nursery habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by promoting an ecological portfolio effect, whereby multiple habitat types and environmental strata maximize foraging opportunities for out-migrating salmon by varying the abundance and composition of prey through space and time. To study this portfolio effect, we evaluated the foraging capacity of five estuarine habitat types within the Nisqually River Delta (Puget Sound, Washington, USA). Within each habitat, we sampled invertebrate prey resources from the terrestrial, aquatic, benthic, and epifaunal strata and compared them to juvenile salmon diets from corresponding sampling events. We found that the emergent salt marsh supplied twice as much aquatic prey biomass as any other habitat (720–5523 mg/m3), followed by the mudflat (246–2543 mg/m3) and eelgrass (Zostera marina; 141–2694 mg/m3) habitats. Despite some evidence for selectivity, juvenile salmon diets exhibited substantial compositional overlap, especially when compared to among-habitat differences in available prey resources. Fish that were captured in salt marsh, mudflat, and eelgrass consumed aquatic crustaceans such as mysids, while fish captured upriver in forested and transitional marshes ate a higher proportion of adult and larval insects. The availability and consumption of greater quantities of energy-poor crustaceans in the salt marsh and lower quantities of energy-rich insects upriver highlights a quantity-for-quality tradeoff among estuarine habitats. Our findings indicate that the timing, productivity, and diversity of prey across multiple habitat types and environmental strata determine an estuary’s capacity to support foraging for multiple life history strategies, size classes, and cohorts of juvenile salmon.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Field observations of wind waves in Upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines

Constructed oyster reefs (CORs) provide shore protections and habitats for fish and shellfish communities via wave energy attenuation. However, the processes and mechanism of CORs on wave attenuation remain unclear, thus limiting the effective assessment of CORs for shoreline protection. This paper presents results of a field investigation on wave characteristics and wave spectral variations along a shoreline with CORs in an estuary with a large tidal range as well as large wind waves and swell energy. Six pressure transducers were deployed from January 31 to April 2, 2018, in Gandy’s Beach, New Jersey, in upper Delaware Bay. CORs were constructed at the study site in 2016 as living shoreline structures after Hurricane Sandy. The data collected from the study site exhibits the wave variations and spectral characteristics over the span of 2 months, including four winter storms (i.e., nor’easters). The spatial variations of wave heights measured on both sides of CORs show a strong dependence on the ratio between the freeboard of CORs and the offshore wave heights. Due to the large tidal range (> 2 m), the crests of CORs remain submerged over 85% of the time. The submerged CORs only provide partial attenuation of wave energy. The wave environment in the estuary is complex, especially during nor’easters. For instance, winds with rapid changing fetches could lead to bi-modal wind seas. Due to the complex wave spectra, the bulk wave heights such as the significant wave heights cannot be adopted to adequately reveal the capacity of CORs to attenuate wave energy. Spectral analysis is conducted to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of wave energy in targeted frequency bins. The spectral analysis results reveal the energy transfer from the primary waves to the high harmonics after waves propagate over the submerged CORs. Moreover, it is found that swell energy originated from the Atlantic Ocean can penetrate CORs without any dampening even when CORs are emergent. This study could help resource managers for in-depth evaluation of living shoreline effectiveness and improvement of living shoreline structures such as CORs.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2022

Development and application of Landsat-based wetland vegetation cover and unvegetated-vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR) for the conterminous United States

Effective management and restoration of salt marshes and other vegetated intertidal habitats require objective and spatially integrated metrics of geomorphic status and vulnerability. The unvegetated-vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR), a recently developed metric, can be used to establish present-day vegetative cover, identify stability thresholds, and quantify vulnerability to open-water conversion over a range of spatial scales. We developed a Landsat-based approach to quantify the within-pixel vegetated fraction and UVVR for coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States, at 30-m resolution for 2014–2018. Here we present the methodology used to generate the UVVR from spectral indices, along with calibration, validation, and spatial autocorrelation assessments. We then demonstrate multiple applications of the data across varying spatial scales: first, we aggregate the UVVR across individual states and estuaries to quantify total vegetated wetland area for the nation. On the state level, Louisiana and Florida account for over 50% of the nation’s total, while on the estuarine level, the Chesapeake Bay Estuary and selected Louisiana coastal areas each account for over 6% of the nation’s total vegetated wetland area. Second, we present cases where this dataset can be used to track wetland change (e.g., expansion due to restoration and loss due to stressors). Lastly, we propose a classification methodology that delineates areas vulnerable to open-water expansion based on the 5-year mean and standard deviation of the UVVR. Calculating the UVVR for the period-of-record back to 1985, as well as regular updating, will fill a critical gap for tracking national status of salt marshes and other vegetated habitats through time and space.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2024

Estimating biogeochemical rates using a computationally efficient Lagrangian approach

Nutrient concentrations in many estuaries have increased over the past century due to increases in wastewater discharge and increased agricultural intensity, contributing to multiple environmental problems. Numerous biogeochemical and physical processes in estuaries influence nutrient concentrations during transport, resulting in complex spatial and temporal variability and challenges identifying predominant processes and their rates. Mechanistic models which require these rates to quantify biogeochemical processes become complex and difficult to calibrate as the number of processes and parameters grows, owing to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the computational cost of simultaneously modeling the transport and transformations of constituents. We developed a modeling approach that decouples transport from transformations, enabling fast, data-driven exploration of the parameter space. The approach extracted information including water age, cumulative exposure to specific habitats, and mean water depth exposure from a hydrodynamic model. Using this information, a biogeochemical model was implemented to predict ammonium and nitrate concentrations in a Lagrangian frame. The model performed each simulation in milliseconds on a laptop computer, allowing the fitting of rate parameters for key transformations by optimization. The optimization used fixed station nitrate observations and the model was then validated against high-resolution mapping observations of ammonium and nitrate. The results suggest that the observed spatial and temporal variation can be largely represented with five transformation processes and their associated rates. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) losses occurred only in shallow vegetated areas in the model, highlighting that biogeochemical processes in these areas should be included in DIN models.

California↗
USGS2025

Estuarine tidal cycles may preserve thermal refugia as global temperatures increase

Climate change is affecting coastal ecosystems worldwide as water temperatures increase, hydrologic regimes change, and sea levels rise. Consequently, estuaries risk declines in ecosystem functioning due to increasing temperatures and other hydrologic factors. Characterizing and predicting estuarine water temperature are challenging because these systems are highly dynamic. Statistical models have been used to accurately assess air temperature-water temperature relationships in lakes and streams but have not been effectively applied to tidally influenced ecosystems like estuaries. We used 6 years of continuous monitoring data from the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., to parameterize and run a non-linear statistical model and generate spatially explicit model predictions. Our goal was to examine spatiotemporal patterns in estuarine water temperature and thermal refugia given current estimates of climactic change. The performance of the parameterized model was similar to that of non-linear stream temperature models (NSE = 0.76; RMSE = 2.34 °C). Scenarios incorporating forecasted high-emission air temperatures through the year 2100 (+ 7 °C) predicted a corresponding 3.55 ± 0.63 °C increase in average water temperatures; however, moderate and high rates of sea-level rise offset temperature increases by 3–20% and substantially reduced the amount of time temperatures exceeded the thermal stress threshold of 20 °C for juvenile salmon. These findings demonstrate how the effects of one climate stressor (sea-level rise) may offset another (temperature increases) to maintain thermal refugia for coldwater fishes. Similar exercises may allow managers to explore mitigation options like the planting of riparian vegetation or modified flooding regimes to further offset rising water temperatures.

Washington↗
USGS2004

Trends in the sediment yield of the Sacramento River, California, 1957-2001

Human activities within a watershed, such as agriculture, urbanization, and dam building, may affect the sediment yield from the watershed. Because the equilibrium geomorphic form of an estuary is dependent in part on the sediment supply from the watershed, anthropogenic activities within the watershed have the potential to affect estuary geomorphology. The Sacramento River drains the northern half of California’s Central Valley and is the primary source of sediment to San Francisco Bay. In this paper, it is shown that the delivery of suspended-sediment from the Sacramento River to San Francisco Bay has decreased by about one-half during the period 1957 to 2001. Many factors may be contributing to the trend in sediment yield, including the depletion of erodible sediment from hydraulic mining in the late 1800s, trapping of sediment in reservoirs, riverbank protection, altered land-uses (such as agriculture, grazing, urbanization, and logging), and levees. This finding has implications for planned tidal wetland restoration activities around San Francisco Bay, where an adequate sediment supply will be needed to build subsided areas to elevations typical of tidal wetlands as well as to keep pace with projected sea-level rise. In a broader context, the study underscores the need to address anthropogenic impacts on watershed sediment yield when considering actions such as restoration within downstream depositional areas.

California↗
USGS2021

Dispersion and stratification dynamics in the upper Sacramento River deep water ship channel

Hydrodynamics control the movement of water and material within and among habitats, where time-scales of mixing can exert bottom-up regulatory effects on aquatic ecosystems through their influence on primary production. The San Francisco Estuary (estuary) is a low-productivity ecosystem, which is in part responsible for constraining higher trophic levels, including fishes. Many research and habitat-restoration efforts trying to increase primary production have been conducted, including, as described here, a whole-ecosystem nutrient addition experiment where calcium nitrate was applied in the Sacramento River Deep Water Ship Channel (DWSC) to see if phytoplankton production could be increased and exported out of the DWSC. As an integral part of this experiment, we investigated the physical mechanisms that control mixing, and how these mechanisms affect the strength and duration of thermal stratification, which we revealed as critical for controlling phytoplankton dynamics in the relatively turbid upper DWSC. Analysis of a suite of mixing mechanisms and time-scales show that both tidal currents and wind control mixing rates and stratification dynamics in the DWSC. Longitudinal and vertical dispersion increased during periods of high wind, during which wind speed influenced dispersion more than tidal currents. Thermal stratification developed most days, which slowed vertical mixing but was rapidly broken down by wind-induced mixing. Stratification rarely persisted for longer than 24 hours, limiting phytoplankton production in the study area. The interaction between physical mechanisms that control mixing rates, mediate stratification dynamics, and ultimately limit primary production in the DWSC may be useful in informing habitat restoration elsewhere in the Delta and in other turbid aquatic environments.

California↗
USGS2023

Ecology and ecosystem impacts of submerged and floating aquatic vegetation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Substantial increases in non-native aquatic vegetation have occurred in the upper San Francisco Estuary over the last 2 decades, largely from the explosive growth of a few submerged and floating aquatic plant species. Some of these species act as ecosystem engineers by creating conditions that favor their further growth and expansion as well as by modifying habitat for other organisms. Over the last decade, numerous studies have investigated patterns of expansion and turn-over of aquatic vegetation species; effects of vegetation on ecosystem health, water quality, and habitat; and effects of particular species or communities on physical processes such as carbon and sediment dynamics. Taking a synthetic approach to evaluate what has been learned over the last few years has shed light on just how significant aquatic plant species and communities are to ecosystems in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Aquatic vegetation affects every aspect of the physical and biotic environment, acting as ecosystem engineers on the landscape. Furthermore, their effects are constantly changing across space and time, leaving many unanswered questions about the full effects of aquatic vegetation on Delta ecosystems and what future effects may result, as species shift in distribution and new species are introduced. Remaining knowledge gaps underlie our understanding of aquatic macrophyte effects on Delta ecosystems, including their roles and relationships with respect to nutrients and nutrient cycling, evapotranspiration and water budgets, carbon and sediment, and emerging effects on fish species and their habitats. This paper explores our current understanding of submerged and floating aquatic vegetation (SAV and FAV) ecology with respect to major aquatic plant communities, observed patterns of change, interactions between aquatic vegetation and the physical environment, and how these factors affect ecosystem services and disservices within the upper San Francisco Estuary.

California↗
USGS2025

Marsh sediment in translation: A review of sediment transport across a natural tidal salt marsh in northern San Francisco Bay

Deposition of inorganic sediment is essential for the sustainability of tidal salt marshes. Understanding variability in sediment sources and the processes of sediment delivery to salt marshes are high priorities for decision-makers responsible for managing sediment and conserving and restoring marshes. Research on sediment transport to marshes is published in technical journals, but these scientific findings must be translated and communicated to inform critical decisions related to managing sediment in estuaries. We convened a diverse group of collaborators—including natural-resource managers, regulators, scientists, and restoration planners and practitioners—to review and interpret the results of previously published field investigations on and around the salt marsh at China Camp State Park in Marin County, California. We discussed and translated key results of those studies using new graphics and more accessible language. Here, we present a general introduction to the topic of sediment delivery to salt marshes, background descriptions of the China Camp marsh and the physical processes that we characterized there, key scientific conclusions, and proposed management implications. Key conclusions include (1) bay shallows are an important but variable source of marsh sediment, (2) flood tides and waves move sediment across the bay–marsh edge, (3) tidal creeks may not always import sediment to the marsh platform, and (4) protective effects of marsh vegetation depend on species and season. China Camp marsh is one of the last remaining pre-colonial salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary and is unique in being relatively unmodified by humans and in retaining an unimpeded transition into natural uplands. Additional studies in a variety of marshes with different attributes and sediment regimes will broaden understanding of how best to conserve, manage, and restore tidal marshes that provide numerous ecosystem services to for humans and wildlife.

California↗
USGS1986

Effect of discharge on the chlorophyll a distribution in the tidally-influenced Potomac River

In the tidal Potomac River, high river discharges during the spring are associated with high chlorophyll a concentrations in the following in the following summer, assuming that summertime light and temperature conditions are favorable. Spring floods deliver large loads of particulate N and P to the tidal river. This particulate N and P could be mineralized by bacteria to inorganic N and P and released to the water column where it is available for phytoplankton use during summertime. However, during the study period relatively low concentrations of chlorophyll a (less than 50 μg l −1 occurred in the tidal river if average monthly discharge during July or August exceeded 200 m 3 s −1 . Discharge and other conditions combined to produce conditions favorable for nuisance levels of chlorophyll a (greater than 100 μg l −1 approximately one year out of four. Chlorophyll a maxima occurred in the Potomac River transition zone and estuary during late winter (dinoflagellates) and spring (diatoms). Typical seasonal peak concentrations were achieved at discharges as high as 970 m 3 s −1 , but sustained discharges greater than 1,100 m 3 s −1 retarded development. Optimum growth conditions occurred following runoff events of 10 to 15 d duration which produced transit times to the transition zone of 7 to 10 d. Wet years with numerous moderate-sized runoff events, such as 1980, tend to produce greater biomass in the transition zone and estuary than do dry years such as 1981.

Potomac River↗
USGS1981

On the use of the nephelometer in estuarine waters

A study of the problems encountered in nephelometric determinations of suspended sediment loads in the Chesapeake Bay estuary has led to development of a technique which uses nephelometer readings as a guide for sampling at vertical profiles in an estuary. This permits optimum sampling for concentration profiles and allows one to use nephelometer/load ratios to characterize particles.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS1993

Trace metals (Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn) and nutrients in coastal waters adjacent to San Francisco Bay, California

Samples collected in December 1990 and July 1991 show that dissolved Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn distributions in the Gulf of the Farallones are dominated by mixing of two end-members: (1) metal-enriched San Francisco Bay water and (2) offshore California Current water. The range of dissolved metal concentrations observed is 0.2–0.9 nmol kg −1 for Cd, 1–20 nmol kg −1 for Cu, 4–16 nmol kg −1 for Ni, and 0.2–20 nmol kg −1 for Zn. Effective concentrations in fresh water discharged into San Francisco Bay during 1990–1991 (estimated by extrapolation to zero salinity) are 740–860 μmol kg −1 for silicate, 21–44 μmol kg −1 for phosphate, 10–15 nmol kg −1 for Cd, 210–450 nmol kg −1 for Cu, 210–270 nmol kg −1 for Ni, and 190–390 nmol kg −1 for Zn. Comparison with effective trace metal and nutrient concentrations for freshwater discharge reported by Flegal et al. (1991) shows that input of these constituents to the northern reaches of San Francisco Bay accounts for only a fraction of the input to Gulf of the Farallones from the estuary system as a whole. The nutrient and trace metal composition of shelf water outside a 30-km radius from the mouth of the estuary closely resembles that of California Current water further offshore. In contrast to coastal waters elsewhere, there is little evidence of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn input by sediment diagenesis in continental shelf waters of California.

Estuaries↗
USGS2025

Multiple dimensions define thresholds for population resilience of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica

A species' distribution depends on its tolerance to environmental conditions. These conditions are defined by a minimum, maximum, and optimal ranges of single and combined factors. Forays into environmental conditions outside the minimum or maximum tolerance of a species (i.e., thresholds) are predicted to have large effects on a species' population and may help predict population resilience in the face of changing conditions. Here, we explore ecological thresholds for an important fisheries species and ecosystem engineer, Crassostrea virginica (eastern oyster). In coastal Louisiana, extreme freshwater inputs from rivers and precipitation events impact estuarine salinity, which is a key driver of oyster population dynamics. Using daily salinity and monthly oyster abundance monitoring data across Louisiana estuaries, we explore low salinity exposure threshold levels for oysters. Two statistical approaches were applied, with each model highlighting a different operational definition of a threshold: random forest models identified a threshold as an abrupt change in the oyster abundance- salinity relationship, while Bayesian models identified an increased probability of oyster abundance dropping below a critical threshold, defined here as less than 50% of the 5-year mean. All model results indicate oysters in coastal Louisiana experience low salinity exposure thresholds, defined as the number of consecutive summer days of salinity levels less than 5. However, actual number of days and salinity threshold differed by statistical approach, oyster life stage, and estuary highlighting the multiple dimensions defining ecological thresholds. While thresholds are considered important benchmarks to inform management and assess population or ecosystem vulnerability, our results reveal the need to carefully relate threshold definition to management goals and to acknowledge that thresholds may be highly context dependent.

Louisiana↗