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USGS2019

Confronting models with data: The challenges of estimating disease spillover

For pathogens known to transmit across host species, strategic investment in disease control requires knowledge about where and when spillover transmission is likely. One approach to estimating spillover is to directly correlate observed spillover events with covariates. An alternative is to mechanistically combine information on host density, distribution, and pathogen prevalence to predict where and when spillover events are expected to occur. We use several case studies at the wildlife-livestock disease interface to highlight the challenges, and potential solutions, to estimating spatio-temporal variation in spillover risk. Datasets on multiple host species often do not align in space, time or resolution, and may have no estimates of observation error. Linking these datasets requires they be related to a common spatial and temporal resolution and appropriately propagating errors in predictions can be difficult. Hierarchical models are one potential solution, but for fine-resolution predictions at broad spatial scales many models become computationally challenging. Despite these limitations, the confrontation of mechanistic predictions with observed events is an important avenue for developing a better understanding of pathogen spillover. Systems where data have been collected at all levels in the spillover process are rare, or non-existent, and require investment and sustained effort across disciplines.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2013

Importance of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for aquatic birds

We used data from aerial surveys (1992–2010) of >100,000 km 2 and ground surveys (1998–2004) of >150 km 2 to estimate the density and abundance of birds on the North Slope of Alaska (U.S.A.). In the ground surveys, we used double sampling to estimate detection ratios. We used the aerial survey data to compare densities of birds and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), the major nest predator of birds, on the North Slope, in Prudhoe Bay, and in nearby areas. We partitioned the Prudhoe Bay oil field into 2 × 2 km plots and determined the relation between density of aquatic birds and density of roads, buildings, and other infrastructure in these plots. Abundance and density (birds per square kilometer) of 3 groups of aquatic birds—waterfowl, loons, and grebes; shorebirds; and gulls, terns, and jaegers—were highest in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPRA) and lowest in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Six other major wetlands occur in the Arctic regions of Canada and Russia, but the largest population of aquatic birds was in the NPRA. Aquatic birds were concentrated in the northern part of the NPRA. For example, an area that covered 18% of the NPRA included 53% of its aquatic birds. The aerial surveys showed that bird density was not lower and fox density was not higher in Prudhoe Bay than in surrounding areas. Density of infrastructure did not significantly affect bird density for any group of species. Our results establish that the NPRA is one of the most important areas for aquatic birds in the Arctic. Our results and those of others also indicate that oil production, as practiced in Prudhoe Bay, does not necessarily lead to substantial declines in bird density or productivity in or near the developed areas.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Assessing recovery feasibility for piping plovers using optimization and simulation

Optimization and simulation modeling can be used to account for demographic and economic factors simultaneously in a comprehensive analysis of endangered-species population recovery. This is a powerful approach that is broadly applicable but underutilized in conservation biology. We applied the approach to a population recovery analysis of threatened and endangered piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) in the Great Plains of North America. Predator exclusion increases the reproductive success of piping plovers, but the most cost-efficient strategy of applying predator exclusion and the number of protected breeding pairs necessary to prevent further population declines were unknown. We developed a linear programming model to define strategies that would either maximize fledging rates or minimize financial costs by allocating plover pairs to 1 of 6 types of protection. We evaluated the optimal strategies using a stochastic population simulation model. The minimum cost to achieve a 20% chance of stabilizing simulated populations was approximately $1-11 million over 50 years. Increasing reproductive success to 1.24 fledglings/pair at minimal cost in any given area required fencing 85% of pairs at managed sites but cost 23% less than the current approach. Maximum fledging rates resulted in >20% of simulated populations reaching recovery goals in 30-50 years at cumulative costs of <$16 million. Protecting plover pairs within 50 km of natural resource agency field offices was sufficient to increase simulated populations to established recovery goals. A range-wide management plan needs to be developed and implemented to foster the involvement and cooperation among managers that will be necessary for recovery efforts to be successful. We also discuss how our approach can be applied to a variety of wildlife management issues.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2018

Managing an invasive corallimorph at Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, Line Islands, Central Pacific

In 2007, a phase shift from corals to corallimorpharians (CM) centered around a shipwreck was documented at Palmyra Atoll, Line Islands. Subsequent surveys revealed CM to be overgrowing the reef benthos, including corals and coralline algae, potentially placing coral ecosystems in the atoll at risk. This prompted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the lead management agency of the atoll, to remove the shipwreck. Subsequent surveys showed reductions in CM around the ship impact site. We explain patterns of spread of the CM in terms of both life history and local currents and show with a pilot study that pulverized bleach may be an effective tool to eradicate CM on a local scale. If applied strategically, particularly in heavily infested (> 66% cover) areas, active intervention such as this could be an effective management tool to reduce CM impact on localized areas and decrease colonization rate of remaining reefs. This is the first documentation of the response of an invasive cnidarian to shipwreck removal. While this was a singular event in Palmyra, the spatial and temporal patterns of this invasion and the eradications lessons described herein, are useful for anticipating and controlling similar situations elsewhere.

Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge↗

USGS2018

Mercury on a landscape scale—Balancing regional export with wildlife health

The Cosumnes River watershed requires a 57–64 percent reduction in loads to meet the new Delta methylmercury (MeHg) total maximum daily load allocation, established by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board. Because there are no large point sources of MeHg in the watershed, the focus of MeHg load reductions will fall upon non-point sources, particularly the expansive wetlands considered to be a primary source of MeHg in the region. Few management practices have been implemented and tested in order to meet load reductions in managed wetlands, but recent efforts have shown promise. This project examines a treatment approach to reduce MeHg loads to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta by creating open-water deep cells with a small footprint at the downstream end of wetlands to promote net demethylation of MeHg and to minimize MeHg and Hg loads exiting wetlands at the Cosumnes River Preserve. Specifically, the deep cells were were located immediately up gradient of the wetland’s outflow weir and were deep enough (75–91 centimeter depth) to be vegetation-free. The topographic and hydrologic structure of each treatment wetland was modified to include open-water deep cells so that the removal of aqueous MeHg might be enhanced through (1) particle settling, (2) photo-degradation, and (3) benthic microbial demethylation. These deep cells were, therefore, expected to clean MeHg from surface water prior to its discharge to the Cosumnes River and the downstream Delta. Our goal was to test whether the implementation of the deep cells within wetlands would minimize MeHg and total Hg export. Further, we sought to test whether continuous flow-through hydrology, would lower MeHg concentrations in resident biota, compared to traditional wetland management operations. The dominant practice in seasonal wetlands management is the “fill-and-maintain” approach, in which wetlands are filled with water and the water levels maintained without substantial draining until drawdown. Our approach was to create and characterize replicate treatment wetland complexes, in conjunction with monitoring of hydrologic, biologic, and chemical indicators of MeHg exposure for two full annual cycles within winter-spring flooded seasonal wetlands. In addition to the creation of deep cells within treatment wetlands, hydrology was manipulated so that there was a constant flow-through of water, while the control wetlands utilized the fill-and-maintain approach. Specifically, the treatment wetlands were maintained in a flow-through manner, while the control wetlands were maintained in a fill-and-maintain manner from September through May, to test the hypothesis that the flow of water through the seasonal wetland can lower fish bioaccumulation through dilution of MeHg-concentrated water within the wetland by constant inflows of water into the wetland. The major tasks of this study included: (1) field design and implementation, (2) water and wetland management, (3) hydrologic monitoring and water quality sampling, (4) MeHg export and load estimates, (5) caged fish experiments for examining MeHg bioaccumulation, (6) site and process characterization to improve understanding and transferability of results, (7) adaptive management, transferability, and outreach, and (8) reporting of results and conclusions. This report summarizes the key findings of this study, which focuses on MeHg load estimates from control and treatment wetlands, quantification of three MeHg removal mechanisms (particulate settling, benthic demethylation, and photo-demethylation) in the deep cells within the treatment wetlands, and MeHg bioaccumulation in wetland fishes. Key findings include: Over two years of study, mean whole-water MeHg load decreased 37 percent in deep cells, when comparing inlet of check weir flows to outlet. Of the 37 percent MeHg load removed within the deep cell, photodegradation accounted for 7 percent and particle flux to the benthos accounted for 24 percent of the mass removed, with the remaining 6 percent apparent MeHg loss unexplained. Benthic MeHg degradation did not appear to be a major MeHg removal process in the deep cells, as changes in the ambient MeHg pool over 7-day bottle incubations showed that the surface sediment exhibited net MeHg production in the majority (87 percent) of incubation experiments. In only 13 percent of the incubations (3 out of 24) was net MeHg degradation observed. Estimates of benthic diffusive flux of MeHg across the sediment/water interface were small relative to particulate flux and variable (positive or negative), suggesting this is likely a minor term in the overall MeHg budget within the deep cells. Although the deep cells served as net MeHg sink overall, MeHg export from the flow-through treatment wetlands (shallow and deep combined) exceeded export from the fill-and-maintain managed control wetlands, because of the differences in hydrologic management between the two wetland types. Shallow wetlands under flow-through conditions generated a net export of MeHg. Most of the annual MeHg export from the treatment wetlands occurred within the first 3 months of flood up (September to November), shortly after hydrologic management began. Despite the effectiveness of the deep cell in lowering MeHg export concentrations, total mercury (THg) concentration did not decrease in biosentinel fish ( Gambusia affinis , Mosquitofish) between the deep cell inlet and outlet. Mosquitofish THg concentrations were higher in treatment wetlands than in control wetlands during the first year of study, likely because of an associated increase in MeHg availability immediately following wetland construction activities. Mosquitofish THg concentrations declined in the treatment wetlands during the second year of study, and fish THg concentrations in treatment wetlands were no different from those in the control. Similarly, the increased hydrologic flow rates in the treatment wetlands did not lower fish THg concentrations nor aqueous MeHg concentrations in the shallow cells, suggesting that MeHg flux from the sediment to water column exceeded the flow-through flushing rate in the shallow portion of the treatment wetlands. Reductions in MeHg concentrations of surface water and fish may require higher flow rates than used in the study to achieve the region’s regulatory goals. However, the flow rates necessary may not be feasible for these managed wetlands because of limited water supply and the associated costs for water and pumping. The use of deep cells in seasonal wetlands were effective in lowering MeHg exports under continuous water flow-through hydrology. However, fill-and-maintain hydrology had lower exports overall, because of a single major drainage event at the end of the flood season. Future studies focused on limiting MeHg export should consider combining deep cells with the fill-and-maintain or fill-and-trickle hydrologic management approach.

California↗

USGS2002

On the origin of brucellosis in bison of Yellowstone National Park: a review

Brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus occurs in the free-ranging bison ( Bison bison ) of Yellowstone and Wood Buffalo National Parks and in elk ( Cervus elaphus ) of the Greater Yellowstone Area. As a result of nationwide bovine brucellosis eradication programs, states and provinces proximate to the national parks are considered free of bovine brucellosis. Thus, increased attention has been focused on the wildlife within these areas as potential reservoirs for transmission to cattle. Because the national parks are mandated as natural areas, the question has been raised as to whether Brucella abortus is endogenous or exogenous to bison, particularly for Yellowstone National Park. We synthesized diverse lines of inquiry, including the evolutionary history of both bison and Brucella , wild animals as Brucella hosts, biochemical and genetic information, behavioral characteristics of host and organism, and area history to develop an evaluation of the question for the National Park Service. All lines of inquiry indicated that the organism was introduced to North America with cattle, and that the introduction into the Yellowstone bison probably was directly from cattle shortly before 1917. Fistulous withers of horses was a less likely possibility. Elk on winter feedgrounds south of Yellowstone National Park apparently acquired the disease directly from cattle. Bison presently using Grand Teton National Park probably acquired brucellosis from feedground elk.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2012

Time scales of change in chemical and biological parameters after engineered levee breaches adjacent to Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

Eight sampling trips were coordinated after engineered levee breaches hydrologically reconnected both Upper Klamath Lake and Agency Lake, Oregon, to adjacent wetlands. The reconnection, by a series of explosive blasts, was coordinated by The Nature Conservancy to reclaim wetlands that had for approximately seven decades been leveed for crop production. Sets of nonmetallic porewater profilers (U.S. Patent 8,051,727 B1; November 8, 2011; http://www.uspto.gov/web/patents/patog/ week45/OG/html/1372-2/US08051727-20111108.html.) were deployed during these trips in November 2007, June 2008, May 2009, July 2009, May 2010, August 2010, June 2011, and July 2011 (table 1). Deployments temporally spanned the annual cyanophyte bloom of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and spatially involved three lake and four wetland sites. Spatial and temporal variation in solute benthic flux was determined by the field team, using the profilers, over an approximately 4-year period beginning 3 days after the levee breaches. The highest flux to the water column of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was detected in the newly flooded wetland, contrasting negative or insignificant DOC fluxes at adjacent lake sites. Over the multiyear study, DOC benthic fluxes dissipated in the reconnected wetlands, converging to values similar to those for established wetlands and to the adjacent lake (table 2). In contrast to DOC, benthic sources of soluble reactive phosphorus, ammonium, dissolved iron and manganese from within the reconnected wetlands were consistently elevated (that is, significant in magnitude relative to riverine and established-wetland sources) indicating a multi-year time scale for certain chemical changes after the levee breaches (table 2). Colonization of the reconnected wetlands by aquatic benthic invertebrates during the study trended toward the assemblages in established wetlands, providing further evidence of a multiyear transition of this area to permanent aquatic habitat (table 3). Both the lake and wetland benthic environments substantively contribute to macro- and micronutrients in the water column. Wetland areas undergoing restoration, and those being used for water storage, function very differently relatively to the established wetland within the Upper Klamath Lake National Wildlife Refuge, adjacent Upper Klamath Lake. Developing long-term management strategies for water quality in the Upper Klamath Basin requires recognition of the multi-year time scales associated with restoring wetlands that provide natural, seasonal ecosystem function and services.

Oregon↗

USGS2011

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2014

The persistent problem of lead poisoning in birds from ammunition and fishing tackle

Lead (Pb) is a metabolic poison that can negatively influence biological processes, leading to illness and mortality across a large spectrum of North American avifauna (>120 species) and other organisms. Pb poisoning can result from numerous sources, including ingestion of bullet fragments and shot pellets left in animal carcasses, spent ammunition left in the field, lost fishing tackle, Pb-based paints, large-scale mining, and Pb smelting activities. Although Pb shot has been banned for waterfowl hunting in the United States (since 1991) and Canada (since 1999), Pb exposure remains a problem for many avian species. Despite a large body of scientific literature on exposure to Pb and its toxicological effects on birds, controversy still exists regarding its impacts at a population level. We explore these issues and highlight areas in need of investigation: (1) variation in sensitivity to Pb exposure among bird species; (2) spatial extent and sources of Pb contamination in habitats in relation to bird exposure in those same locations; and (3) interactions between avian Pb exposure and other landscape-level stressors that synergistically affect bird demography. We explore multiple paths taken to reduce Pb exposure in birds that (1) recognize common ground among a range of affected interests; (2) have been applied at local to national scales; and (3) engage governmental agencies, interest groups, and professional societies to communicate the impacts of Pb ammunition and fishing tackle, and to describe approaches for reducing their availability to birds. As they have in previous times, users of fish and wildlife will play a key role in resolving the Pb poisoning issue.

The Condor↗

USGS2008

Davis Pond freshwater prediversion biomonitoring study: freshwater fisheries and eagles

In January 2001, the construction of the Davis Pond freshwater diversion structure was completed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The diversion of freshwater from the Mississippi River is intended to mitigate saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico and to lessen the concomitant loss of wetland areas. In addition to the freshwater inflow, Barataria Bay basin would receive nutrients, increased flows of sediments, and water-borne and sediment-bound compounds. The purpose of this biomonitoring study was, therefore, to serve as a baseline for prediversion concentrations of selected contaminants in bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) nestlings (hereafter referred to as eaglets), representative freshwater fish, and bivalves. Samples were collected from January through June 2001. Two similarly designed postdiversion studies, as described in the biological monitoring program, are planned. Active bald eagle nests targeted for sampling eaglet blood (n = 6) were generally located southwest and south of the diversion structure. The designated sites for aquatic animal sampling were at Lake Salvador, at Lake Cataouatche, at Bayou Couba, and along the Mississippi River. Aquatic animals representative of eagle prey were collected. Fish were from three different trophic levels and have varying feeding strategies and life histories. These included herbivorous striped mullet ( Mugil cephalus ), omnivorous blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus ), and carnivorous largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Three individuals per species were collected at each of the four sampling sites. Freshwater Atlantic rangia clams ( Rangia cuneata ) were collected at the downstream marsh sites, and zebra mussels ( Dreissena spp.) were collected on the Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) protocols served as guides for fish sampling and health assessments. Fish are useful for monitoring aquatic ecosystems because they accumulate pesticides and other contaminants. Biomarker data on individual fish, generated at the USGS National Wetlands Research Center (Lafayette, La.), included percent white blood cells in whole blood, spleen weight to body weight ratio, liver weight to body weight ratio, condition factor, splenic macrophage aggregates, and liver microsomal 7-ethoxyresorufin-o-deethylase (EROD) activity. Fish age was estimated by comparing total lengths with values from the same species in the Southeast United States as determined from the literature. Contaminant analyses were coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Analytical Control Facility (Laurel, Md.), where residues of organochlorine (OC) pesticides, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), aliphatic hydrocarbons (AHs), and trace elements were determined. The organic contaminant data were generated at the Mississippi State University Chemical Lab (Mississippi State, Miss.), and the inorganic contaminant data were generated by the Texas A&M University Geochemical and Environmental Research Group (College Station, Tex.). Statistical tests were performed to assess relationships among contaminants, fish age, fish species, and collection sites. Trends in interspecific differences among fish in concentrations of contaminants were noted. Striped mullet (hereafter mullet) frequently displayed the highest chemical concentrations. Levels of contaminants were generally higher in samples obtained from the Mississippi River than in those collected from the diversion area and were higher in mussels and clams (hereafter bivalves) than in fish. Because the Mississippi River sampling site for mullet and largemouth bass was downriver of the structure and south of New Orleans and the catfish site was upriver, the downriver data may not be directly reflective of the results from the receiving waters at the Davis Pond structure. Compared to the Caernarvon freshwater prediversion study in 1990 that assessed possible influx of contaminants with the freshwater diversion, contaminant levels in fishes and bivalves in this study were generally lower, yet three nontoxic inorganic elements in Davis Pond fish samples exhibited ranges of concentrations that were more than two times higher than did those from Caernarvon. Levels in bivalves were different between diversions but about equal in the numbers of trace elements showing high levels per location. Contaminant values were compared to those listed in various literature and agency sources, both regional and national, including the National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program (NCBP), in which the 85th percentile and above represents what is considered to be an elevated contaminant concentration and cause for concern. Generally, bivalves were at the high end of their ranges for both organic and inorganic contaminants. In this study, OCs were detectable in 67 percent of fish from the Mississippi River site, ranging from 0.15 to 1.09 μg/g wet weight (ww) or fresh weight (fw), and in 11 percent of the fish from the marsh sites, ranging from 0.06 to 0.612 μg/g ww. Bivalves from the Mississippi River had OC levels of 0.096 μg/g ww, whereas none were detectable in bivalves at the marsh sites. In this study, p,p ’-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene ( p,p’ -DDE) (a biodegradation product of DDT [dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane]) and total PCBs were the most frequently detected OCs and were primarily from the Mississippi River. For total OC content, using adjusted least squares means, some significant interactions were noted between fish species and sites. PAHs were detected in aquatic animals at all sites (range of 0.017–17.534 μg/g ww), as were AHs (range of 0.423–4.549 μg/g ww); the highest levels of PAHs and AHs were found in bivalves from the Mississippi River. When analysis of variance (α = 0.05) was performed with data from aquatic animals, there were only two significant relationships between PAHs, AHs, and OCs between species, site, and age or the interaction among these variables. There was an interaction between fish species and n-decane (an AH) in that mullet and largemouth bass had significantly higher levels than did catfish ( P = 0.0175). When general linear means were used to investigate associations of inorganic contaminants among fish species, site, and age or any interactions among these variables, no significant results were noted for arsenic, cadmium, lead, beryllium, boron, molybdenum, or nickel. The range of mercury in fish in this study was 0.04–0.14 μg/g ww (0.14– 0.48 μg/g dry weight [dw]), with the most elevated levels detected in predatory largemouth bass at the sampling point farthest downstream from the structure and within the marsh area. Mercury was positively correlated with fish age ( P = 0.0152), where levels were estimated to increase 0.0253 parts per million (ppm) dw per year. In the Mississippi River, catfish showed significantly higher levels of mercury than did mullet or largemouth bass ( P = 0.00167). Among fish species, mullet displayed the highest levels in fish of aluminum, barium, manganese, and iron, all considered to have low toxicity in hydrologic systems. An interaction between fish and site was seen with aluminum ( P = 0.0031), where concentrations in mullet were significantly higher in the Mississippi River than at the other sites, as was also seen with barium ( P = 0.0009), chromium ( P = <0.0001), manganese ( P = 0.0004), strontium ( P = 0.0074), vanadium ( P = 0.0156), and zinc ( P = 0.0059). For iron ( P = 0.0.0001), mullet and largemouth bass at both the Mississippi River and Lake Salvador showed higher levels than did catfish, and these two species showed higher levels at two of the four sites. An interaction between fish and site was also seen with chromium ( P = <0.0001) in that concentrations in mullet were significantly higher in the Mississippi River than at the other sites, as was also seen with strontium ( P = 0.0074), vanadium ( P = 0.0156), and zinc ( P = 0.0059), metals for which deleterious effects have been demonstrated in other ecosystems. The NCBP program lists the 85th percentile for zinc at 34.2 μg/g fw (117.9 μg/g dw). In the Davis Pond prediversion biomonitoring study (hereafter the current study), one fish (MUL31RIVER, fish ID 8) showed values higher than that (125.4 μg/g dw or 37.54 μg/g ww), and the Mississippi River bivalve sample (MUSSRIVER) had a value of 140 μg/g dw (41.2 μg/g ww). In the current study, approximately 86 percent of the fish had measurable selenium levels, yet none reached the 85th percentile. The 85th percentile for selenium from the NCBP was 0.73 μg/g ww. Significantly higher levels of selenium were seen in mullet than in largemouth bass and catfish ( P = 0.0023). The NCBP 85th percentile for lead is 0.22 μg/g ww (0.76 μg/g dw). In the current study, the range of concentrations of lead was as much as 18.3 ppm dw (MUL31RIVER, fish ID 8), with the three most elevated values (range of 3.46–5.31 μg/g ww) coming from mullet from the Mississippi River. Biomarker data are measurable and directly reflect the condition of the animal, and measuring more than one biomarker in an individual increases confidence in health assessments. In the current study, biomarkers included macrophage aggregates (MAs), liver (hepatosomatic index [HSI]) and spleen (splenosomatic index [SSI]) weight to body weight ratios, percent white blood cells (WBCs) in whole blood, and condition factor. Few significant differences were noted with any of the biomarkers between sites, and there were no relationships between species and sites. For improved use of biomarker assessments, an increase in fish sample size would be useful for postdiversion sampling, as would comparisons of fish of the same sex and reproductive condition. During the current study, success for eagle nests in the diversion area and reference sites was similar as determined by numbers of nestlings fledged. When temperatures were below average during winter 2000, nests in both regions similarly failed. At each nest, the primary evidence of food items was small mammals. Eaglets (n = 6) generally appeared healthy, and whole blood concentrations of organic contaminants exceeded detection limits with three incidences of p,p’ -DDE (0.002–0.006 μg/L ww) and one incidence of oxychlordane (0.002 μg/L ww). The levels of p,p’ -DDE were well below those that have been inversely correlated with productivity and success rates of nesting bald eagles on a regional scale. The low values found in the whole blood samples for OC pesticides and PCBs were even lower when corrected for plasma volume. Aluminum values were 3.66 and 5.75 μg/L in two samples, zinc ranged from 5.21 to 6.77 μg/L ww in six samples, and silicon ranged from 1.7 to 4.6 μg/L in four samples. Selenium was detectable in each bird with the range at 0.332–0.566 μg/L ww, and strontium ranged from 0.0581 to 0.0975 μg/L ww. Mercury was detectable in blood samples from each bird and ranged from 0.0254 to 0.0845 μg/L ww, whereas lead was detectable in four samples and ranged from 0.0042 to 0.0136 μg/L ww. Although no detectable levels of total PCBs were found (also correlated with decreased reproductive productivity), 70 percent of the aquatic animals from the Mississippi River contained total PCBs (range 0.13–0.79 μg/L), whereas only about 7 percent of the aquatic animals sampled from the marsh area contained PCBs. Suggestions for postdiversion sampling include lowering the analytical detection limit for some metals, sampling aquatic animals over the course of a single season, obtaining a higher sample number of mature fish of one species (for example, blue catfish) within a range of total lengths for biomarker analyses, obtaining otoliths for estimating fish ages, assessing dioxins in eaglet blood, examining triazines in water, and obtaining all Mississippi River fish samples as close to the Davis Pond structure intake as possible. Because contaminants found in blood of eaglets reflect their prey species and because of the contaminant levels found in fish in the current study, eaglets may not be consuming primarily these species; therefore, obtaining juvenile nutria ( Myocastor coypus ) or turtle species for contaminant analyses might be considered, as well as collecting greater blood volume and using plasma to measure OCs and PCBs. Data obtained postdiversion will be compared with prediversion data to monitor changes.

Louisiana↗

USGS2007

Is statistical power to detect trends a good assessment of population monitoring?

The ability to detect trends in population abundance is of obvious interest to wildlife managers. In recent years, the probability of detecting defined population trends has been the most common method of assessing monitoring programs. Such analyses require many assumptions, including a model for population change and a model for variance. To demonstrate potential effects of these assumptions on power analysis results, we present data for Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda) from Tern Island, Hawaii. Depending on our assumptions, the power to detect a 50% decline over 10 years varied from 80% to 100%. We argue that monitoring standards based upon the ability to detect population trends should be applied cautiously. As a complementary approach, we propose that monitoring standards should emphasize attributes of sampling design that increase precision (e.g., randomization, bias, and detection probability). By using standards of precision, managers can focus on the sources of variation that can be minimized. A sampling design approach to monitoring standards provides a useful complement to standards of statistical power to detect annual trends.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2014

Carnivore distributions across chaparral habitats exposed to wildfire and rural housing in southern California

Chaparral and coastal sage scrub habitats in southern California support biologically diverse plant and animal communities. However, native plant and animal species within these shrubland systems are increasingly exposed to human-caused wildfires and an expansion of the human–wildland interface. Few data exist to evaluate the effects of fire and anthropogenic pressures on plant and animal communities found in these environments. This is particularly true for carnivore communities. To address this knowledge gap, we collected detection–non-detection data with motion-sensor cameras and track plots to measure carnivore occupancy patterns following a large, human-caused wildfire (1134 km 2 ) in eastern San Diego County, California, USA, in 2003. Our focal species set included coyote ( Canis latrans ), gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) and striped skunk ( Mephitis mephitis ). We evaluated the influence on species occupancies of the burned environment (burn edge, burn interior and unburned areas), proximity of rural homes, distance to riparian area and elevation. Gray fox occupancies were the highest overall, followed by striped skunk, coyote and bobcat. The three species considered as habitat and foraging generalists (gray fox, coyote, striped skunk) were common in all conditions. Occupancy patterns were consistent through time for all species except coyote, whose occupancies increased through time. In addition, environmental and anthropogenic variables had weak effects on all four species, and these responses were species-specific. Our results helped to describe a carnivore community exposed to frequent fire and rural human residences, and provide baseline data to inform fire management policy and wildlife management strategies in similar fire-prone ecosystems.

California↗

USGS1995

North American migratory bird management issues

As human population and industry have grown in North America, land-use practices have greatly altered the landscape. As a result of this changed landscape, several migratory bird populations have declined in recent years. For waterbirds, there have been several milestones: the 1986 North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) and the 1989 North American Wetlands Conservation Act. As a result, the United States and Canada have established 12 habitat and 2 species joint ventures. The primary emphasis of waterfowl management in Canada-U.S. has been land purchase and lease, wetland restoration, and coordination of harvest rates. Because of its different biological and cultural context, Mexico has established other conservation priorities. Mexico has had a long-standing concern to conserve its biodiversity and, in addition, conservation of Mexican resources goes hand in hand with human community development. Unlike Canada-U.S., wetland conservation projects in'Mexico include information gathering, environmental education, and management planning for its 32 priority wetlands. For migratory landbirds' scientists attribute declines in several migrant populations to forest fragmentation on the breeding grounds, deforestation on the wintering grounds, pesticide poisoning, or the cumulative effects of habitat changes. In 1990, the Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Program, commonly known as Partners in Flight-Aves de las Americas-was initiated. The next step that is being proposed is the formation of a habitat conservation plan for landbirds modeled after the NAWMP. Management of migratory birds requires a strong international approach in order to coordinate actions for the benefit of migratory birds, their habitats, and the uses they provide.

Wildlife Society Annual Conference↗

USGS2015

Impact of experimental habitat manipulation on northern bobwhite survival

Habitat management for northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ) should affect vital rates, but direct linkages with survival are not well documented; therefore, we implemented an experiment to evaluate those responses. We conducted our experiment on a reclaimed surface mine, a novel landscape where conditions were considered sub-optimal because of the dominance of non-native vegetation, such as sericea lespedeza ( Lespedeza cuneata ), which has been reported to provide marginal habitat for northern bobwhite and may negatively affect survival. Nonetheless, these areas have great potential for contributing to bobwhite conservation because of the amount of early successional cover they provide. Our study site, a 3,330-ha reclaimed surface mine in western Kentucky, consisted of 2 tracts (Sinclair and Ken, 1,471 ha and 1,853 ha, respectively) that served as replicates with each randomly divided into a treatment (i.e., habitat manipulation through a combination of disking, burning, and herbicide application) and an undisturbed control ( n  = 4 experimental units). Habitat treatments were applied October 2009 to September 2013. We used radio telemetry to monitor northern bobwhite ( n  = 1,198) during summer (1 Apr–30 Sep) and winter (1 Oct–31 Mar), 2009–2013. We used the known-fate model in Program MARK to evaluate treatment effects on seasonal survival rates. We included biological, home-range, landscape, and microhabitat metrics as covariates to help improve model sensitivity and further elucidate experimental impacts. Survival varied annually, ranging from 0.139 (SE = 0.031) to 0.301 (SE = 0.032), and seasonally (summer, 0.148 [SE = 0.015]; winter, 0.281 [SE = 0.022]). We found a treatment effect ( β  = 0.256, 95% CI = 0.057–0.456) with a seasonal interaction ( β   = −0.598, 95% CI = −0.898 to −0.298) with survival being higher in summer (0.179 [SE = 0.022] vs. 0.109 [SE = 0.019]) and lower in winter (0.233 [SE = 0.025] vs. 0.355 [SE = 0.035]) on treatment than control units. Among habitat covariates, litter depth ( β  = −0.387, 95%CI = −0.5809 to −0.1930) was the most influential effect (negative) on survival. Additional experiments across a wider range of habitat conditions may be required to determine management intensity or duration thresholds required to elicit greater changes in survival for northern bobwhite populations.

Kentucky↗

USGS2007

Landscape genetics and the spatial distribution of chronic wasting disease

Predicting the spread of wildlife disease is critical for identifying populations at risk, targeting surveillance and designing proactive management programmes. We used a landscape genetics approach to identify landscape features that influenced gene flow and the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Wisconsin white-tailed deer. CWD prevalence was negatively correlated with genetic differentiation of study area deer from deer in the area of disease origin (core-area). Genetic differentiation was greatest, and CWD prevalence lowest, in areas separated from the core-area by the Wisconsin River, indicating that this river reduced deer gene flow and probably disease spread. Features of the landscape that influence host dispersal and spatial patterns of disease can be identified based on host spatial genetic structure. Landscape genetics may be used to predict high-risk populations based on their genetic connection to infected populations and to target disease surveillance, control and preventative activities. ?? 2007 The Royal Society.

Biology Letters↗

USGS2023

Quantifying uncertainty in coastal salinity regime for biological application using quantile regression

Salinity regimes in coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and driven by complex geomorphic and hydrological processes. Estuarine biota are generally adapted to salinity fluctuation, but are vulnerable to salinity extremes. Characterizing coastal salinity regime for ecological studies therefore requires representing extremes of salinity ranges at time scales relevant to ecology (e.g., daily, monthly, and seasonally). Here, we propose a framework for modeling coastal salinity with these overall goals: (1) quantify uncertainty in salinity associated with important terrestrial and oceanographic drivers, (2) examine time scales of salinity response to river streamflow events, and (3) predict salinity continuously over space at key time scales. Salinity is modeled as quantile surfaces related to river discharge, tidal dynamics, wind, and spatial location, applied to Suwannee Sound estuary, FL, USA, where salinity has been monitored spatially since 1981. Each quantile level is regressed independently, and together they comprise a distribution of salinity uncertainty across space, with upper and lower quantiles describing salinity extremes. Effects of physical drivers on salinity are compared through four base models with various combinations of tide and wind variables, each including spatial coordinates and a single streamflow metric (in cubic meters per second). Multiple time scales of streamflow are considered by taking means across various periods, from 1 to 12 days, and at various lagged intervals prior to salinity sample, totaling 144 streamflow metrics. We found that the Suwannee coastal salinity regime is dynamic at multiple time scales and varies nonlinearly across space from the river effluence outward. Salinity increases nonlinearly with decreasing river flow rates below 200 m 3 /s, most prominently in the lower quantiles of salinity (τ = 0.05–0.25). Wind appears to have a stronger influence on salinity than astronomic tides for this estuary. The regression approach developed here can be applied to any coastal system that has sufficient spatial and temporal monitoring coverage to capture multiple flood and drought events. It is implemented with a simple R routine, and is less computationally-intensive than finite difference hydrodynamic modeling. The characterizations of salinity uncertainty developed in these analyses can be directly applied to future studies of fish and wildlife responses to changes in watershed management.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics. Results Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. Conclusions We developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Fire Ecology↗

USGS2000

Mercury bioaccumulation in fish in a region affected by historic gold mining: The South Yuba River, Deer Creek, and Bear River watersheds, California, 1999

Mercury that was used historically for gold recovery in mining areas of the Sierra Nevada continues to enter local and downstream water bodies, including the Sacramento Delta and the San Francisco Bay of northern California. Methylmercury is of particular concern because it is the most prevalent form of mercury in fish and is a potent neurotoxin that bioaccumulates at successive trophic levels within food webs. In April 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with several other agencies the Forest Service (U.S. Department of Agriculture), the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the California State Water Resources Control Board, and the Nevada County Resource Conservation District began a pilot investigation to characterize the occurrence and distribution of mercury in water, sediment, and biota in the South Yuba River, Deer Creek, and Bear River watersheds of California. Biological samples consisted of semi-aquatic and aquatic insects, amphibians, bird eggs, and fish. Fish were collected from 5 reservoirs and 14 stream sites during August through October 1999 to assess the distribution of mercury in these watersheds. Fish that were collected from reservoirs included top trophic level predators (black basses, Micropterus spp.) intermediate trophic level predators [sunfish (blue gill, Lepomis macrochirus; green sunfish, Lepomis cyanellus; and black crappie, Poxomis nigromaculatus)] and benthic omnivores (channel catfish, Ictularus punctatus). At stream sites, the species collected were upper trophic level salmonids (brown trout, Salmo trutta) and upper-to-intermediate trophic level salmonids (rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss). Boneless and skinless fillet portions from 161 fish were analyzed for total mercury; 131 samples were individual fish, and the remaining 30 fish were combined into 10 composite samples of three fish each of the same species and size class. Mercury concentrations in samples of black basses (Micropterus spp.), including largemouth, smallmouth, and spotted bass, ranged from 0.20 to 1.5 parts per million (ppm), wet basis. Mercury concentrations in sunfish ranged from less than 0.10 to 0.41 ppm (wet). Channel catfish had mercury concentrations from 0.16 to 0.75 ppm (wet). The range of mercury concentrations observed in rainbow trout was from 0.06 to 0.38 ppm (wet), and in brown trout was from 0.02 to 0.43 ppm (wet). Mercury concentrations in trout were greater than 0.3 ppm in samples from three of 14 stream sites. Mercury at elevated concentrations may pose a health risk to piscivorous wildlife and to humans who eat fish on a regular basis. Data presented in this report may be useful to local, state, and federal agencies responsible for assessing the potential risks associated with elevated levels of mercury in fish in the South Yuba River, Deer Creek, and Bear River watersheds.

California↗