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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Hydrologic data and groundwater-flow simulations in the Brown Ditch Watershed, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected data and simulated groundwater flow to increase understanding of the hydrology and the effects of drainage alterations on the water table in the vicinity of Great Marsh, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana. Prior land-management practices have modified drainage and caused changes in the distribution of open water, streams and ditches, and groundwater abundance and flow paths. Collected hydrologic data indicate that the majority of water entering Great Marsh flows from the southern dune ridge beneath Town of Pines, Indiana. Groundwater flow is intercepted by Brown Ditch in the eastern portion of the study area and Derby Ditch in the western portion of the study area. A smaller amount of groundwater from the northern dune ridge beneath Beverly Shores also contributed water to Great Marsh. Continuous groundwater-level data collected indicate that the predominant north-south groundwater-flow gradients vary during the course of the year due to increased levels of precipitation or during periods of drainage obstructions. Continuous surface-water discharge and surface-water elevation were measured at three USGS streamgages, one each on Brown, Kintzele and Derby Ditches. The monthly mean discharge statistics indicate that during the period of record— June 2012 to September 2013—streamflow in Kintzele Ditch was lowest during July 2012 and highest during April 2013. In Derby Ditch, streamflow also was lowest during July 2012 and highest during April 2013. Periods of relatively high and low groundwater levels during August 1982, March 2013, and April 2014 were examined and simulated by using MODFLOW and companion software. Results from the simulation of conditions during March 2013 include that nearly 100 percent of all water entering the area simulating Town of Pines is from recharge. Of all the water simulated to enter the eastern and western portions of Great Marsh, nearly 20 and 18 percent, respectively, flows from Town of Pines to the western and eastern portions of Great Marsh. The dune ridges beneath Town of Pines and to a lesser extent beneath Beverly Shores are a major source of recharge to the surficial aquifer and Great Marsh. Results from the simulation of the conditions of April 2014 include that, despite increases in the amount of water entering Great Marsh due to a beaver-dam-modified hydrologic condition, there is still virtually zero simulated groundwater flow from Great Marsh to Town of Pines. The volume of water simulated to be entering the zone representing Beverly Shores decreased by 0.43 cubic foot per second from the results of the March 2013 simulation. This simulated difference in water budgets can be attributed to increased simulated recharge in Great Marsh and Town of Pines. Effects of the inclusion of the beaver dam included the increase of the simulated water table and simulated inundated area upstream of the beaver dam due to the effects of ponding surface water. Results from the simulation scenario that includes six proposed pool-riffle control structures in Brown Ditch under the hydrologic conditions of March 2013 indicate areas inundated by water are larger, including areas just to the north of the entrance of Brown Ditch into Great Marsh, and areas north of the confluence of Brown and Kintzele Ditches. Results from the scenario simulating the increase of the Lake Michigan water level to the historical high of May 31, 1998, showed inundated areas of Great Marsh south of Beverly Shores enlarged on both sides of Lakeshore County Road with the greatest enlargement simulated to be southeast of the intersection of Lakeshore County Road and Beverly Drive. For the scenario simulating the decrease of the Lake Michigan water level to the historical low of December 23, 2007, results show little change from the original March 2013 inundated area. The results of this study can be used by water-resource managers to understand how surrounding ditches affect water levels in Great Marsh and other inland wetlands and residential areas. The groundwater model developed can be applied to answer questions about how alterations to the drainage system in the area affects water levels in the public and residential areas surrounding Great Marsh. The modeling methods developed in this study provide a template for other studies of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the shallow surficial aquifer in northern Indiana, and in similar hydrologic settings that include surficial sand aquifers in coastal areas.

Indiana↗
USGS2016

Water quality and hydrology of Silver Lake, Oceana County, Michigan, with emphasis on lake response to nutrient loading

Executive Summary Silver Lake is a 672-acre inland lake located in Oceana County, Michigan, and is a major tourist destination due to its proximity to Lake Michigan and the surrounding outdoor recreational opportunities. In recent years, Silver Lake exhibited patterns of high phosphorus concentrations, elevated chlorophyll a concentrations, and nuisance algal blooms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Silver Lake Improvement Board and in collaboration with the Annis Water Resources Institute (AWRI) of Grand Valley State University, designed a study to assess the hydrologic and nutrient inputs to Silver Lake in order to identify the events and conditions that affect the nutrient chemistry and production of algal blooms in the lake. This information can inform water-resource managers in developing various management strategies to prevent or reduce the occurrence of future algal blooms. USGS and AWRI scientists collected data from November 2012 to December 2014 to provide information for future management decisions for Silver Lake. Silver Lake can be classified as a polymictic lake and has a residence time of approximately 223 days. Based on the mean lake Secchi depth, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen concentrations, Silver Lake is classified as a eutrophic lake. In-situ bioassay results indicate that algal growth in Silver Lake is colimited by both nitrogen and phosphorus. The nutrient budget for Silver Lake was calculated using the BATHTUB model based on 2 years of water-quality data collection. The BATHTUB model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, treats the lake as a well-mixed system with multiple inputs and outlets for both water and dissolved constituents, such as nutrients. Based on results of the BATHTUB model, which were conditioned on observed concentrations and flows, the mean annual input of phosphorus to Silver Lake was approximately 1,342 pounds (lb); the mean annual input of nitrogen to Silver Lake was approximately 51,998 lb. The major measured sources of phosphorus loading to Silver Lake were groundwater and Hunter Creek, whereas the major measured sources of nitrogen to Silver Lake were Hunter Creek, groundwater, and atmospheric deposition. The largest loading of phosphorus and nitrogen to Silver Lake occurred during the spring. Minimal phosphorus deposition (if any) occurred in the lakebed sediment; however, of the nitrogen that entered Silver Lake, approximately 42.2 percent was deposited in the lakebed sediment as simulated by the BATHTUB model. In addition to measured sources, a septic load model was used to estimate the likely range of septic contribution to groundwater and adjacent surface waters. The likely septic loading scenario estimates that septic systems contribute 47.8 percent of the phosphorus to groundwater and 22.3 percent of phosphorus to Hunter Creek. These results indicate that septic systems are a major source of phosphorus loading to Silver Lake. The likely septic loading scenario indicated that septic systems account for 0.95 percent of the nitrogen load to Hunter Creek and 1.1 percent of the contribution of nitrogen to groundwater. The BATHTUB model was used to estimate future nutrient loading and eutrophication scenarios based on water-quality data collected from Silver Lake, groundwater, major tributaries, and atmospheric deposition. A separate septic load model was used to estimate the septic contribution to groundwater or directly to surface water, and the nutrient load estimates were modeled using the BATHTUB model to determine subsequent water-quality changes to Silver Lake. BATHTUB model scenarios based on measured data: The first BATHTUB scenario evaluated the condition of Silver Lake and the change to lake water quality (trophic status) as a result of changes in nutrient loading from different sources. Based on BATHTUB model simulations, if groundwater loading of phosphorus and nitrogen only were decreased by 75 percent, and all of the other nutrient inputs stayed the same, the future condition of Silver Lake would most likely remain highly mesotrophic to eutrophic (the current [2014] condition of Silver Lake). If nutrient loading continued to increase in groundwater, the lake would continue to remain eutrophic with more frequent algal blooms. If nutrient loading from Hunter Creek only decreased by 50–75 percent, and all of the other nutrient inputs stayed the same as the baseline dataset, Silver Lake would remain eutrophic to highly mesotrophic. By reducing the input of manageable nutrient sources (Hunter Creek, groundwater, and lawn runoff) by 75 percent, the BATHTUB model simulation indicates that Silver Lake would be classified as mesotrophic, which is indicative of improved water quality, water clarity, and reduced algal bloom frequency. Simulations also were run using the BATHTUB model to evaluate the number of days Silver Lake could experience algal blooms (algal blooms are defined as modeled chlorophyll a in excess of 10 micrograms per liter [µg/L]) as a result of an increase/decrease in phosphorus and nitrogen loading from groundwater, Hunter Creek, and (or) a combination of sources. If the phosphorus and nitrogen loading from Hunter Creek is decreased (and all other sources are not altered), Silver Lake will continue to experience algal blooms, but less frequently than what is currently experienced. The same scenario holds true if the nutrient loading from groundwater is decreased. Another scenario was simulated using a combination of sources, which includes increases and decreases in phosphorus and nitrogen loading from sources that are the most likely to be managed, and includes groundwater (as a result of conversion of household septic to sewers), Hunter Creek (conversion of household septic to sewers), and lawn runoff. Results of the BATHTUB model indicated that a 50-percent reduction of phosphorus and nitrogen from these sources would result in a considerable decrease in algal bloom frequency (from 231 to 132 days) and severity, and a 75-percent reduction would greatly reduce algal bloom occurrence on Silver Lake (from 231 to 57 days). BATHTUB model scenarios based on septic load model: A scenario also was conducted using the BATHTUB model to simulate the conversion of septic to sewer and included a low, high, and medium (likely) scenario of nutrient loading to Silver Lake. Simulations of the BATHTUB model indicated that, under the likely scenario, the conversion of all onsite septic treatment to sewers would result in an overall change in lake trophic status from eutrophic to mesotrophic, thereby reducing the frequency of algal blooms and algal bloom intensity on Silver Lake (chlorophyll a >10 µg/L, from 231 to 184 days per year, or chlorophyll a >20 µg/L, from 80 to 49 days per year).

Michigan↗
USGS2016

Water use in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, 2010, and water-use trends, 1985-2010

The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin encompasses about 20,230 square miles in parts of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. Increasing population growth and agricultural production from the 1970s to 2010 has prompted increases in water-resources development and substantially increased water demand in the basin. Since the 1980s, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are parties to litigation concerning water management in the ACF River Basin. Estimating the 2010 water use in the ACF River Basin is one aspect of a multipart water resources study on the ACF River Basin that began in 2011. This ACF River Basin study is one focus area of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Census program. The 2010 water-use estimates for the ACF River Basin are presented in this report. These estimates include an inventory of the quantity and sources of water withdrawn by category of use and location (State and river basin), and the surface-water returns in the ACF River Basin during 2010. Water-use trends from 1985 to 2010 in the basin also are presented. Offstream water-withdrawal data in the ACF River Basin are presented for each of the following categories: public supply, self-supplied domestic, self-supplied commercial, industrial, mining, agricultural (including crop irrigation, livestock, and aquaculture uses), and thermoelectric-power generation. Water-use data are compiled for the 14 subbasins in the ACF River Basin. For the counties in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia that are partially within the ACF River Basin, data are presented for only that part of the county that lies within the basin. A variety of Federal, State, local, private, and online sources in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia were used to gather surface-water and groundwater withdrawal, surface-water discharges (return flows), and water-use data for the ACF River Basin in 2010. The population in the ACF River Basin was 3.835 million in 2010, a 45-percent increase from the 1990 population of nearly 2.636 million. About 92 percent of the 2010 ACF population resided in Georgia with nearly 75 percent living in the Atlanta metropolitan area. In 2010, 1,645 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water were withdrawn from groundwater (576 Mgal/d) and surface-water (1,069 Mgal/d) sources in the ACF River Basin. About 89 percent of the groundwater and 83 percent of the surface-water withdrawals were from Georgia. About 5.6 percent of the total groundwater and nearly 4 percent of the total surface-water withdrawals in the ACF River Basin were from Florida, whereas about 5.3 percent of groundwater and nearly 16 percent of surface water were withdrawn in Alabama. Total water use (withdrawals plus public-supplied deliveries) in the ACF River Basin was 1,593 Mgal/d in 2010. About 56 Mgal/d of water withdrawn in the ACF River Basin was delivered (interbasin transfer) to basins beyond the ACF River Basin. About 564 Mgal/d of water was returned to surface-water bodies in the ACF River Basin. Most of that amount, 63 percent, was treated wastewater discharged by public wastewater-treatment facilities. Water used for once-through cooling by thermoelectric-power facilities accounted for nearly 24 percent of the surface-water returns in the basin. About 70 percent of all water withdrawals in the ACF River Basin were by self-supplied agricultural water users and public water suppliers. Agricultural withdrawals were greatest in the Flint River Basin (501 Mgal/d) with ground-water representing 84 percent of the withdrawals from that basin. Within the Flint River Basin, agricultural withdrawals were greatest in the Lower Flint River and Spring Creek subbasins. About 3.52 million people were served by public water suppliers in the ACF River Basin during 2010, and 88 percent of that population used surface water. Georgia had the largest public-supplied population, representing nearly 93 percent (3.17 million) of the public-supplied population in the ACF River Basin. Public water suppliers served 193,700 people (5.7 percent) in Alabama and 31,880 people in Florida (1.3 percent). Public-supply losses were estimated at 101 Mgal/d. Withdrawals for public supply (483 Mgal/d) and self-supplied industry (141 Mgal/d) were greatest in the Chattahoochee River Basin. Surface water accounted for 96 percent of all withdrawals in the Chattahoochee River Basin. Withdrawals for public supply were greatest in the Upper Chattahoochee River subbasin (366 Mgal/d), whereas self-supplied industrial withdrawals were greatest in the Lower Chattahoochee River subbasin (110 Mgal/d). Water-use trends in the ACF River Basin have varied during the 25 years between 1985 and 2010. Surface-water withdrawals declined between 1985 and 2000, sharply increased in 2000, and declined again between 2000 and 2010. In contrast, groundwater withdrawals increased between 1985 and 2000, declined in 2005, and increased between 2005 and 2010.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2016

Potential effects of alterations to the hydrologic system on the distribution of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida

To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis. For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used for all estimates. Final station flood frequency estimates for all study streamgages are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. Regional multiple-regression analysis was used to produce equations for estimating flood frequency statistics from explanatory basin characteristics. Basin characteristics, including physical and climatic variables, were updated for all study streamgages using a geographical information system and geospatial source data. Screening for similar-sized nested basins eliminated hydrologically redundant sites, and screening for eligibility for analysis of explanatory variables eliminated regulated peaks, outburst peaks, and sites with indeterminate basin characteristics. An ordinary least‑squares regression used flood-frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 341 streamgages (284 in Alaska and 57 in Canada) to determine the most suitable combination of basin characteristics for a flood-frequency regression model and to explore regional grouping of streamgages for explaining variability in flood-frequency statistics across the study area. The most suitable model for explaining flood frequency used drainage area and mean annual precipitation as explanatory variables for the entire study area as a region. Final regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharge in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada were developed using a generalized least-squares regression. The average standard error of prediction for the regression equations for the various annual exceedance probabilities ranged from 69 to 82 percent, and the pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R 2 ) ranged from 85 to 91 percent. The regional regression equations from this study were incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program for a limited area of the State—the Cook Inlet Basin. StreamStats is a national web-based geographic information system application that facilitates retrieval of streamflow statistics and associated information. StreamStats retrieves published data for gaged sites and, for user-selected ungaged sites, delineates drainage areas from topographic and hydrographic data, computes basin characteristics, and computes flood frequency estimates using the regional regression equations.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Groundwater-flow model for the Wood River Valley aquifer system, south-central Idaho

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was developed for the Wood River Valley (WRV) aquifer system, Idaho, to evaluate groundwater and surface-water availability at the regional scale. This mountain valley is located in Blaine County and has a drainage area of about 2,300 square kilometers (888 square miles). The model described in this report can serve as a tool for water-rights administration and water-resource management and planning. The model was completed with support from the Idaho Department of Water Resources, and is part of an ongoing U.S. Geological Survey effort to characterize the groundwater resources of the WRV. A highly reproducible approach was taken for constructing the WRV groundwater-flow model. The collection of datasets, source code, and processing instructions used to construct and analyze the model was distributed as an R statistical-computing and graphics package. Flow in the WRV aquifer was simulated using the MODFLOW-USG groundwater flow model. The transient flow model simulates groundwater flow between 1995 and 2010. The model uses a 100-meter (328-feet) uniform grid spacing with 54,922 active model cells distributed over three model layers. A confining unit in the south-central part of the Bellevue fan necessitated the use of a multi-layer model. Specified-flow boundaries were used to simulate the groundwater inflows from each of the major tributary basins (also known as tributary basin underflow) and the areal recharge of precipitation and applied irrigation. Head‑dependent flow boundaries were used to simulate the stream-aquifer flow exchange in river reaches and the groundwater discharge at the outlet boundaries of Stanton Crossing and Silver Creek. The model was calibrated by adjusting aquifer hydraulic properties to match simulated and measured water levels and stream-aquifer flow exchange, using the parameter-estimation program PEST. The model reasonably simulated the measured water-table elevation, orientation, and gradients. Stream-aquifer flow exchange along river reaches also was reasonably simulated by the model. Inflow into the WRV aquifer system originates from three sources (from largest to smallest): Streamflow loss from the Big Wood River and Silver Creek, Areal recharge of precipitation and applied irrigation, and Tributary basin underflow. Outflow from the WRV aquifer system originates from five sources (from largest to smallest): Aquifer discharge into the Big Wood River and Silver Creek, Production-well pumping, Discharge across the water table into the vadose zone, Subsurface outflow beneath Silver Creek near Picabo, and Subsurface outflow beneath the Big Wood River near Stanton Crossing. Temporal changes in aquifer storage are most affected by areal recharge and groundwater pumping, and also contribute to changes in streamflow gains.

Idaho↗
USGS2016

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats. A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system. For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring. Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004. For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs. A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2017

Simulation and assessment of groundwater flow and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2003 through 2013: Chapter B of Water levels and groundwater and surface-water exchanges in lakes of the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, 2002 through 2015

Water levels during 2003 through 2013 were less than mean water levels for the period 1925–2013 for several lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area in Minnesota. Previous periods of low lake-water levels generally were correlated with periods with less than mean precipitation. Increases in groundwater withdrawals and land-use changes have brought into question whether or not recent (2003–13) lake-water-level declines are solely caused by decreases in precipitation. A thorough understanding of groundwater and surface-water exchanges was needed to assess the effect of water-management decisions on lake-water levels. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Council and the Minnesota Department of Health, developed and calibrated a three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model representing 2003–13 mean hydrologic conditions to assess groundwater and lake-water exchanges, and the effects of groundwater withdrawals and precipitation on water levels of 96 lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Lake-water budgets for the calibrated groundwater-flow model indicated that groundwater is flowing into lakes in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area and lakes are providing water to underlying aquifers. Lake-water outflow to the simulated groundwater system was a major outflow component for Big Marine Lake, Lake Elmo, Snail Lake, and White Bear Lake, accounting for 45 to 64 percent of the total outflows from the lakes. Evaporation and transpiration from the lake surface ranged from 19 to 52 percent of the total outflow from the four lakes. Groundwater withdrawals and precipitation were varied from the 2003‒13 mean values used in the calibrated model (30-percent changes in groundwater withdrawals and 5-percent changes in precipitation) for hypothetical scenarios to assess the effects of groundwater withdrawals and precipitation on water budgets and levels in Big Marine Lake, Snail Lake, and White Bear Lake. Simulated lake-water levels and budgets for Snail Lake and White Bear Lake were affected by 30-percent changes in groundwater withdrawals and 5-percent changes in precipitation in the area, whereas the water level in Big Marine Lake was mainly affected by 5-percent precipitation changes. The effects of groundwater withdrawals on the lake-water levels depend on the number of wells and amount of withdrawals from wells near the lakes. Although lake-water levels are sensitive to precipitation changes, increases in groundwater withdrawals during dry periods exacerbate lake-water level declines. The calibrated, groundwater-flow model is a tool that water-resources managers can use to address future water management issues in the northeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area.

Minnesota↗
USGS2016

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources. A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively. Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses. Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study. The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98. The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.

Illinois↗
USGS2017

Hydrogeologic framework and hydrologic conditions of the Piney Point aquifer in Virginia

The Piney Point aquifer in Virginia is newly described and delineated as being composed of six geologic units, in a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VA DEQ). The eastward-dipping geologic units include, in stratigraphically ascending order, the sand of the Nanjemoy Formation Woodstock Member, interbedded limestone and sand of the Piney Point Formation, silty and clayey sand of the Gosport Formation equivalent sediments, silty sand of the Oligocene-age sediments, silty fine-grained sand of the Old Church Formation, and silty sand of the Calvert Formation, Newport News unit and basal Plum Point Member. Identification of geologic units is based on typical sediment lithologies of geologic formations. Fine-grained sediments that compose confining units positioned immediately above and below the Piney Point aquifer are also described. The Piney Point aquifer is one of several confined aquifers within the Virginia Coastal Plain and includes a highly porous and solution-channeled indurated limestone within the Piney Point Formation from which withdrawals are made. The limestone is relatively continuous laterally across central parts of the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and York-James Peninsula. Other geologic units are of variable extent. The configurations of most of the geologic units are further affected by newly identified faults that are aligned radially from the Chesapeake Bay impact crater and create constrictions or barriers to groundwater flow. Some geologic units are also truncated beneath the lower Rappahannock River by a resurge channel associated with the impact crater. Groundwater withdrawals from the Piney Point aquifer increased from approximately 1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) during 1900 to 7.35 Mgal/d during 2004. As a result, a water-level cone of depression in James City and northern York Counties was estimated to be as low as 70 feet (ft) below the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) by 2005. Withdrawals decreased to 5.01 Mgal/d by 2009 as withdrawals were shifted toward other sources, and by 2015 water levels had recovered to approximately 50 ft below NGVD 29. The mean estimated transmissivity of the Piney Point aquifer in York and James City Counties is 16,300 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), but farther north it is only 925 ft 2 /d. The mean well specific capacity in York and James City Counties is 11.4 gallons per minute per foot (gal/min/ft). Farther north in Virginia, mean specific capacity is only 2.26 gal/min/ft, and in Maryland it is 0.99 gal/min/ft. The northward decrease in specific capacity probably reflects the northward decrease in transmissivity, which results from poor development of the solution-channeled limestone. An aquifer test in northern York County induced vertical leakage to the solution-channeled limestone from overlying silty sand and a change in response of the aquifer to pumping from a single layer to two layers. Transmissivity of the limestone of approximately 19,800 ft 2 /d was distinguished from the silty sand of approximately 2,500 ft 2 /d. Most of the water in the Piney Point aquifer is slightly alkaline with moderate concentrations primarily of sodium and bicarbonate that are slightly undersaturated with respect to calcite. Iron concentrations are generally less than 0.3 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Mixing of freshwater with seawater has elevated chloride concentrations to the southeast to as much as 7,120 mg/L. Information on the Piney Point aquifer can benefit water-resource management in siting production wells, predicting likely well yield, and anticipating water-level response to withdrawals. Models that vertically discretize individual geologic units can potentially be used to evaluate groundwater flow in greater detail by representing lateral flow and vertical leakage among the geologic units. Because groundwater withdrawals are made primarily from the limestone and sand of the Piney Point Formation, the VA DEQ has considered regarding the limestone and sand singly as a regulated aquifer apart from the other geologic units. Under current policy in Virginia, if only the limestone and sand were regarded as a regulated aquifer, a greater amount of drawdown would be allowed than is allowed for the Piney Point aquifer consisting of six geologic units. Some production wells intercept multiple geologic units, and the units can undergo water-level decline and vertical leakage induced by pumping from the limestone and sand. Whether the other geologic units are to be regarded as regulated aquifers is an additional consideration for the VA DEQ.

Virginia↗
USGS2017

Low-flow frequency and flow-duration characteristics of selected streams in Alabama through March 2014

Low-flow statistics are needed by water-resource engineers, planners, and managers to protect and manage the water resources of Alabama. The accuracy of these statistics is influenced by such factors as length of record and specific hydrologic conditions measured in those records. As such, it is generally recommended that flow statistics be updated about every 10 years to provide improved and representative low-flow characteristics. The previous investigation of low-flow characteristics for Alabama included data through September 1990. Since that time, Alabama has experienced several historic droughts highlighting the need to update the low-flow characteristics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations. Consequently, this investigation was undertaken in cooperation with a number of State and local agencies to update low-flow frequency and flow-duration statistics at 210 continuous-record streamgaging stations in Alabama and 67 stations from basins that are shared with surrounding States. The flow characteristics were computed on the basis of available data through March 2014.

Alabama↗
USGS2017

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa. The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Iowa↗
USGS2018

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated. In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

Michigan↗
USGS2018

Hydrogeologic setting, conceptual groundwater flow system, and hydrologic conditions 1995–2010 in Florida and parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina

The hydrogeologic setting and groundwater flow system in Florida and parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina is dominated by the highly transmissive Floridan aquifer system. This principal aquifer is a vital source of freshwater for public and domestic supply, as well as for industrial and agricultural uses throughout the southeastern United States. Population growth, increased tourism, and increased agricultural production have led to increased demand on groundwater from the Floridan aquifer system, particularly since 1950. The response of the Floridan aquifer system to these stresses often poses regional challenges for water-resource management that commonly transcend political or jurisdictional boundaries. To help water-resource managers address these regional challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program began assessing groundwater availability of the Floridan aquifer system in 2009. The current conceptual groundwater flow system was developed for the Floridan aquifer system and adjacent systems partly on the basis of previously published USGS Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) studies, specifically many of the potentiometric maps and the modeling efforts in these studies. The Floridan aquifer system extent was divided into eight hydrogeologically distinct subregional groundwater basins delineated on the basis of the estimated predevelopment (circa 1880s) potentiometric surface: (1) Panhandle, (2) Dougherty Plain-Apalachicola, (3) Thomasville-Tallahassee, (4) Southeast Georgia-Northeast Florida-South South Carolina, (5) Suwannee, (6) West-central Florida, (7) East-central Florida, and (8) South Florida. The use of these subregions allows for a more detailed analysis of the individual basins and the groundwater flow system as a whole. The hydrologic conditions and associated groundwater budget were updated relative to previous RASA studies to include additional data collected since the 1980s and to reflect the entire groundwater flow system, including the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems for a contemporary period (1995–2010). Inflow to the groundwater flow system of 33,700 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) was assumed to be exclusively from net recharge (precipitation minus evapotranspiration and surface runoff). Outflow from the groundwater flow system included spring discharge (7,700 Mgal/d) and groundwater withdrawals (5,200 Mgal/d). Estimates for all components of the groundwater system were not possible because of large uncertainties associated with internal leakage, coastal discharge, and discharge to streams and lakes. A numerical modeling analysis is required to improve this hydrologic budget calculation and to forecast future changes in groundwater levels and aquifer storage caused by groundwater withdrawals, land-use change, and the effects of climate variability and change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2018

Trends in water quality of selected streams and reservoirs used for water supply in the Triangle area of North Carolina, 1989–2013

As the population of the Triangle area in central North Carolina increases, the demand for good quality drinking water from streams and lakes within the upper Neuse and upper Cape Fear River Basins also increases. The Triangle area includes Raleigh, Cary, Research Triangle Park, Durham, Chapel Hill, and the surrounding communities. The U.S. Geological Survey examined temporal trends in water quality for 13 stream and 8 reservoir sites in the two basins on the basis of data collected during 1989–2013. Trends were analyzed using a fitted time-series model that accommodated for shifting trends and variations in streamflow at multiple time scales. Seventeen water-quality properties and constituents were evaluated, including specific conductance and major ions, nutrients, and organic carbon. Suspended solids and suspended sediment were examined at stream sites; chlorophyll a and Secchi transparency were examined at lake sites. The investigation identified considerable changes in population, land cover, streamflow, and selected water-quality characteristics in the study area over the 25-year period. Specific conductance and concentrations of calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and chloride tended to increase throughout the study area. Area-wide increases were also observed for organic nitrogen. Trends for other water-quality constituents varied on a more site-specific basis because of local watershed influences such as changes to wastewater-treatment processes and substantial shifts from rural to urban land use. Water quality is influenced by multiple, often confounding factors, and thus may change in a non-uniform manner over time. Long-term monitoring is critical for tracking these trends and ensuring resiliency of water supplies for the future. Results from this study may promote the understanding of water-quality response to a growing population and land-cover changes and can assist water-resource managers in the Triangle area in tracking progress toward water-quality goals.

North Carolina↗
USGS2019

Estimated use of water in the Cumberland River watershed in 2010 and projections of public-supply water use to 2040

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Nashville District, is conducting ongoing water-supply analyses of USACE reservoirs in the Cumberland River watershed to identify areas where potential water-resources issues may arise in the future. To assist the USACE in their efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the USACE, collected and analyzed water-use data to estimate public-supply, self-supplied industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water use for 2010 and to project water demand to 2040 for the Cumberland River watershed area. Estimates of water use for public supply were projected in 10-year increments through 2040 and were based on 2010 public water-supply data and population projections for 2020 to 2040. Additionally, estimates of consumptive use, wastewater releases, and thermoelectric power and industrial return flows were calculated. All estimates are presented for the entire watershed and for the 10 reservoir catchment areas (RCAs) within the watershed. Estimated water withdrawals in the Cumberland River watershed during 2010 averaged 3,456.23 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of freshwater for offstream use. Return flow was estimated to be 3,370.08 Mgal/d, or 98 percent of the water withdrawn during 2010. Total consumptive use accounts for the remaining 2 percent, or 86.2 Mgal/d. Estimates of water withdrawals by source indicate that withdrawals from surface water during 2010 accounted for more than 99 percent of the total withdrawals, or 3,437.90 Mgal/d. Total groundwater withdrawals during 2010 were 18.33 Mgal/d, or less than 1 percent of the total withdrawals. During 2010, withdrawals by category were estimated as follows: thermoelectric power, 3,051.12 Mgal/d; public supply, 360.00 Mgal/d; industrial, 31.5 Mgal/d; and irrigation, 13.6 Mgal/d. Return flows were estimated as thermoelectric power, 3,051.06 Mgal/d, and industrial and public supply, 319.02 Mgal/d. Consumptive use was estimated as thermoelectric power, 0.06 Mgal/d; industrial and public supply, 72.5 Mgal/d; and irrigation, 13.6 Mgal/d. By 2040, the public supply of raw and (or) finished water to meet demand for the 10 RCAs is projected to increase 48 percent to 532.51 Mgal/d. This projected increase includes an increase from 51.5 to 72.5 Mgal/d, or 41 percent, in the Barkley RCA. The combined total water demand for the Cheatham, J. Percy Priest, and Old Hickory RCAs is projected to increase from 224.08 to 359.58 Mgal/d, or 61 percent. The combined total water demand for the Center Hill, Cordell Hull, and Dale Hollow RCAs is projected to increase from 31.7 to 43.0 Mgal/d, or 36 percent. The combined total water demand for the Martins Fork, Laurel, and Wolf Creek RCAs is projected to increase from 52.8 to 57.4 Mgal/d, or 9 percent. The only RCA in the watershed with a projected decrease in water demand is Martins Fork.

Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia↗
USGS2018

The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator—A decision-support tool to estimate water availability at ungaged stream locations in Connecticut

Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow. Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site. In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent. An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series. The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.

Connecticut↗