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Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2012

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Open-File Report

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2013

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Natural Hazards activity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Open-File Report

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2014

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Natural Hazards activity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Open-File Report

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Scientific Investigations Report

Delineation of landform and lithologic units for Ecological Landtype-Association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park, Southeast Alaska

Landform and generalized bedrock lithologic units have been delineated for ecological landtype association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park in southeast Alaska (as the Park boundaries were defined before the 1971 Alaska National Interest Lands expansion). Related U.S. Forest Service efforts have covered (1) the whole region at coarse ecological- unit scale, including domains, divisions, provinces, sections, and subsections; and (2) small parts the region at subsection scale. These small parts are generally forest-covered shoreline to timberline areas with relatively subdued topography, extensive bedrock exposures, and no active glaciers. The detailed studies established that the combination of landform and bedrock-lithologic information was a good indicator of ecosystem productivity and types of plant communities. This study of Glacier Bay National Park covers areas similar to those of the detailed studies but also includes a large proportion of high (15,300 feet), glacier-clad alpine terrain and large, active-valley glacier systems. This terrain reflects (1) the orographic and microclimatic effects associated with the high-altitude barrier that is the Fairweather Range part of the St. Elias Mountains and its rapidly retreating glaciers, and (2) the geologic, tectonic, and erosional history of this range. In this study, landforms were classified-by using topographic maps and personal experience-into eight categories similar to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. The 90 bedrock-lithologic units on the current Glacier Bay geologic map were classified into 13 generalized lithologic units corresponding exactly to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. Incomplete storm-track, storm-intensity, and limited climatic information have also been compiled.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydraulic model and flood-inundation maps developed for the Pee Dee National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina

A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Pee Dee National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina, to provide a means for predicting flood-plain inundation. The model was developed for selected reaches of the Pee Dee River, Brown Creek, and Rocky River, using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) software. Multiple cross sections were defined on each modeled stream, and hydrologic data were collected between August 2011 and August 2013 at selected locations on the Pee Dee River and on its tributaries Brown Creek, Rocky River, and Thoroughfare Creek. Cross-section, stage, and flow data were used to develop the model and simulate water-surface profiles at 1.0-foot increments at the USGS streamgage Pee Dee River at Pee Dee Refuge near Ansonville, N.C. The profiles were produced for 31 selected water levels that ranged from approximately 193.0 feet to 223.0 feet in elevation at the Pee Dee River at Pee Dee Refuge streamgage. A series of digital flood-inundation maps were developed on the basis of the water-surface profiles produced by the model. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels at the USGS streamgage Pee Dee River at Pee Dee Refuge near Ansonville, N.C. These maps, when combined with real-time water-level information from USGS streamgages, provide managers with critical information to help plan flood-response activities and resource protection efforts.

North Carolina

Flood-inundation maps for the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01170100 Green River near Colrain to the confluence with the Deerfield River

The U.S. Geological Survey developed flood elevations in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a 14.3-mile reach of the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, to assist landowners and emergency management workers to prepare for and recover from floods. The river reach extends from the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage downstream to the confluence with the Deerfield River. A series of seven digital flood inundation maps were developed for the upper 4.4 miles of the river reach downstream from the stream. Flood discharges corresponding to the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows and the flood flows associated with the stages of 10.2, 12.4, and 14.4 feet (ft) at the Green River streamgage were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the Tropical Storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011 (stage 13.97 ft), into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current (2015) stage-discharge relation at the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage and from documented high-water marks from the Tropical Storm Irene flood, which had a flow higher than a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood discharge. The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages referenced to the streamgage and ranging from the 50-percent annual exceedance probability (bankfull flow) at 7.6 ft (439.8 ft above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) to 14.4 ft (446.7 ft NAVD 88), which exceeds the maximum recorded water level of 13.97 ft (Tropical Storm Irene) at the streamgage. The mapped stages of 7.6 to 14.4 ft were selected to match the stages for bankfull; the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities; incremental stages of 10.2 and 12.4 ft; and the maximum stage of the stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.5-ft vertical accuracy to create a set of flood-inundation maps. The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near real-time stage from U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

Massachusetts

Geologic framework and hydrogeology of the Rio Rico and Nogales 7.5’ quadrangles, upper Santa Cruz Basin, Arizona, with three-dimensional hydrogeologic model

Rapid population growth and declining annual recharge to aquifers in the upper Santa Cruz Basin area of southern Arizona, have increased the demand for additional groundwater resources. This demand is predicted to escalate in the future because of higher temperatures, longer droughts, less aquifer recharge, and decreased river and stream base flow. We conducted geologic studies to help evaluate and better understand groundwater resources in the basin. Results of these studies are presented in this report, which summarizes the basin geologic framework and hydrogeology, and presents a threedimensional (3D) hydrogeologic model for the Rio Rico and Nogales 7.5′ quadrangles. Three major hydrogeologic units are displayed in the 3D model; a lower basement confining unit, consisting of Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary (Paleocene and Oligocene) rocks; a middle unit composed entirely of the Miocene Nogales Formation; and an upper unit consisting of late Miocene to Holocene surficial deposits. The Nogales Formation and the late Miocene to Holocene sediments are the main aquifers in the upper Santa Cruz Basin. The 3D model integrates the hydrogeologic units and faults to define the geometry, structure, and thickness of the aquifer system that provides water to Nogales and surrounding communities of southernmost Arizona. The report includes an EarthVision 3D Viewer, consisting of software enabling the user to view data interactively in 3D space to help explain the internal complexities of the basin geometry, structure, stratigraphy, and hydrology. The 3D model is a synthesis of geologic data from geologic maps, cross sections, and lithologic descriptions and interpretations; and geophysical data including gravity, magnetic data, and airborne electromagnetic data.

Arizona

Simulation of water availability in the Southeastern United States for historical and potential future climate and land-cover conditions

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) and the Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, to evaluate the hydrologic response of a daily time step hydrologic model to historical observations and projections of potential climate and land-cover change for the period 1952–2099. The model simulations were used to compute the potential changes in hydrologic response and streamflow statistics across the Southeastern United States, using historical observations of climate and streamflow. Thirteen downscaled general circulation models with four representative concentration pathways were used to represent a range of potential future changes in climate (a total of 45 future simulations) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The streamflow statistics were selected to describe streamflow conditions that may be most useful in defining the suitability for each river or stream to support sustaining populations of priority aquatic species across the GCPO LCC. An application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (included as part of the USGS National Hydrologic Model) was used to develop the hydrologic simulations. The results showed increases in air temperature across the study area, with the highest increases occurring in the northern part of the study area during July to September. The results showed a mix of increases and decreases in precipitation accumulation across the study area and across seasons, with decreases in precipitation accumulation across all seasons for the southwestern part of the study area. Actual evapotranspiration decreased for the southeastern part of the study area and increased for the northwestern part of the study area. The results showed general decreases in runoff across the study area, with increases in runoff in areas surrounding large metropolitan regions where potential future increases in impervious area occur. Results from a statistical analysis (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) showed that the downscaled general circulation models generally have more skill in producing historical streamflow statistics in the duration and magnitude categories and less skill in producing historical streamflow statistics in the frequency, rate of change, and timing categories for this study area. The potential changes in the streamflow statistics and the results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are available through the GCPO LCC Conservation Planning Atlas, an online science-based mapping platform built specifically for land managers and planners.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kan

Bathymetry of New York City’s East of Hudson reservoirs and controlled lakes, 2017 to 2019

New York City maintains an extensive system of reservoirs and aqueducts to provide drinking water to its residents, including 16 reservoirs and controlled lakes in Westchester and Putnam Counties in southern New York, east of the Hudson River (also called “East of Hudson reservoirs and controlled lakes”). These reservoirs were put into service from 1842 to 1915, and their capacities have likely changed since their original construction. To provide updated bathymetric surface, contour, and capacity data, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with New York City Department of Environmental Protection, surveyed the bathymetry of the 16 East of Hudson reservoirs and controlled lakes from 2017 to 2019 using a multibeam echosounder. The points measured with the multibeam echosounder were combined with light detection and ranging data to generate 3.28-foot raster grids of the bathymetric surfaces, bathymetric contours at 2-foot intervals of elevation, and elevation-area-capacity tables. The results of the bathymetric survey show that the East of Hudson reservoirs range from about 25 feet deep (Kirk Lake) to about 162 feet deep (Kensico Reservoir) and have a total capacity of 142.9 billion gallons, with a combined surface area of more than 11,600 acres. The accuracy of the mapped bathymetric data was evaluated using quality assurance datasets collected with a single-beam echosounder; about 284,000 quality assurance points were spatially joined with the mapped raster surface to compute measurement errors. The calculated mean point elevation error for the East of Hudson reservoirs was 0.35 foot, the median error was 0.21 foot, and the 95-percent accuracy was 1.68 feet; the 95-percent accuracy of the computed capacity at spillway elevation was 1.6 percent or less. The largest errors occurred in the steepest areas of the reservoirs and in areas where the data were interpolated. Geospatial files of the bathymetry data, including mapped bathymetric surfaces, contours, and capacity tables, quality assurance points, and associated metadata are available for download as part of an accompanying U.S. Geological Survey data release.

New York

Publications of Volcano Hazards Program 2000

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Open-File Report

Synopsis of geologic and hydrologic results: Chapter A in Geological Survey research 1961

The Geological Survey is engaged in many different kinds of investigations in the fields of geology and hydrology. These investigations may be grouped into several broad, inter-related categories as follows: (a) Economic geology, including engineering geology (b) Regional geologic mapping, including detailed mapping and stratigraphic studies (c) Resource and topical studies (d) Ground-water studies (e) Surface-water studies (f) Quality-of-water studies (g) Field and laboratory research on geologic and hydrologic processes and principles. The Geological Survey also carries on investigations in its fields of competence for other Federal agencies that do not have the required specialized staffs or scientific facilities. Nearly all the Geological Survey's activities yield new data and principles of value in the development or application of the geologic and hydrologic sciences. The purpose of this report, which consists of 4 chapters, is to present as promptly as possible findings that have come to the fore during the fiscal year 1961 the 12 months ending June 30, 1961. The present volume, chapter A, is a synopsis of the highlights of recent findings of scientific and economic interest. Some of these findings have been published or placed on open file during the year; some are presented in chapters B, C, and D; still others have not been published previously. Only part of the scientific and economic results developed during the year can be presented in this synopsis. Readers who wish more complete or more detailed information should consult the bibliography of reports beginning on page A-156 of this volume, and the collection of short articles presented in the companion chapters as follows: Prof. Paper 424-B Articles 1 to 146 Prof. Paper 424-C Articles 147 to 292 Prof. Paper 424-D Articles 293 to 435 A list of investigations in progress in the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions with the names and addresses of the project leaders is given on pages A-110 to A-155 for those interested in work in progress in various areas or on special topics. During the fiscal year 1961, the services of the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions were utilized, or supported financially in part, by the many Federal and State agencies listed on pages A-106 to A-109. The Geological Survey has also cooperated from time to time with other agencies, and some of the work described in these chapters stems from work of previous years in cooperation with agencies not shown on the list. All cooperating agencies are identified where appropriate in the individual short articles in chapters B, C, and D, and they are mentioned in connection with some of the larger programs summarized in chapter A; because of space limitations, however, their contributions are mentioned in many of the short summary paragraphs contained in chapter A.

Professional Paper

Flood-Inundation Maps for the North River in Colrain, Charlemont, and Shelburne, Massachusetts, From the Confluence of the East and West Branch North Rivers to the Deerfield River

A series of 10 digital flood-inundation maps were developed for a 3.3-mile reach of the North River in Colrain, Charlemont, and Shelburne, Massachusetts, by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The coverage of the maps extends from the confluence of the East and West Branch North Rivers to the Deerfield River. Peak-flow estimates at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the tropical storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011, into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current [2015] stage-discharge relation at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage North River at Shattuckville, MA (station number 01169000), and from documented high-water marks from the tropical storm Irene flood, which had a peak flow with approximately a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability. A hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for 10 flood stages referenced to the streamgage and ranging from 6.6 feet (ft; 464.5 ft North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [which is approximately bankfull]) to 18.3 ft (476.2 ft North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [which is the stage of the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability peak flow and exceeds the maximum recorded water level at the streamgage and the National Weather Service major flood stage of 13.0 ft]. The mapped stages of 6.6 to 18.3 ft were selected to match the stages of flows for bankfull; the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities; and an incremental stage of 17.0 ft. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a 0.5-ft vertical accuracy to create a set of flood-inundation maps. The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near-real-time stage from the U.S. Geological Survey North River at Shattuckville, MA streamgage can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events. Introduction

Massachusetts

Flood-inundation maps for an 8-mile reach of Papillion Creek near Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska, 2022

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8-mile reach of Papillion Creek near Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, Offutt Air Force Base. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgages Papillion Creek at Fort Crook, Nebr. (station 06610795), and Papillion Creek at Harlan Lewis Road near La Platte, Nebr. (station 06610798). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System database at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Flood profiles were computed for the 8-mile stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by adjusting roughness coefficients to best represent the current (2022) stage-streamflow relation at the Papillion Creek at Fort Crook (station 06610795) streamgage. The hydraulic model then was used to compute water-surface profiles for 157 scenarios using a combination of stage values in 1-foot (ft) stage intervals that ranged from 27 to 39 ft at the Papillion Creek at Fort Crook (station 06610795) streamgage and from 13.9 to 30.9 ft at the Papillion Creek at Harlan Lewis Road near La Platte (station 06610798) streamgage, as referenced to the local datums. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined by a geographic information system with a digital elevation model, which had a 3.281-ft grid to delineate the area flooded and water depths at each stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities and postflood recovery efforts.

Nebraska

Shallow groundwater in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska—Conceptualization and simulation of flow

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the Upper Cook Inlet Basin and is currently undergoing rapid population growth outside of municipal water and sewer service areas. In response to concerns about the effects of increasing water use on future groundwater availability, a study was initiated between the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goals of the study were (1) to compile existing data and collect new data to support hydrogeologic conceptualization of the study area, and (2) to develop a groundwater flow model to simulate flow dynamics important at the regional scale. The purpose of the groundwater flow model is to provide a scientific framework for analysis of regional-scale groundwater availability. To address the first study goal, subsurface lithologic data were compiled into a database and were used to construct a regional hydrogeologic framework model describing the extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. The hydrogeologic framework model synthesizes existing maps of surficial geology and conceptual geochronologies developed in the study area with the distribution of lithologies encountered in hundreds of boreholes. The geologic modeling package Geological Surveying and Investigation in Three Dimensions (GSI3D) was used to construct the hydrogeologic framework model. In addition to characterizing the hydrogeologic framework, major groundwater-budget components were quantified using several different techniques. A land-surface model known as the Deep Percolation Model was used to estimate in-place groundwater recharge across the study area. This model incorporates data on topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. Model-simulated surface runoff was consistent with observed streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated on the basis of records from major water suppliers during 2004-2010. Fluxes between groundwater and surface water were estimated during field investigations on several small streams. Regional groundwater flow patterns were characterized by synthesizing previous water-table maps with a synoptic water-level measurement conducted during 2009. Time-series water-level data were collected at groundwater and lake monitoring stations over the study period (2009–present). Comparison of historical groundwater-level records with time-series groundwater-level data collected during this study showed similar patterns in groundwater-level fluctuation in response to precipitation. Groundwater-age data collected during previous studies show that water moves quickly through the groundwater system, suggesting that the system responds quickly to changes in climate forcing. Similarly, the groundwater system quickly returns to long-term average conditions following variability due to seasonal or interannual changes in precipitation. These analyses indicate that the groundwater system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, characterized by water-level fluctuation about a constant average state, with no long-term trends in aquifer-system storage. To address the second study goal, a steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to simulate regional groundwater flow patterns. The groundwater flow model was bounded by physically meaningful hydrologic features, and appropriate internal model boundaries were specified on the basis of conceptualization of the groundwater system resulting in a three-layer model. Calibration data included 173 water‑level measurements and 18 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along small streams. Comparison of simulated and observed heads and flows showed that the model accurately simulates important regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system. This model is therefore appropriate for studying regional-scale groundwater availability. Mismatch between model-simulated and observed hydrologic quantities is likely because of the coarse grid size of the model and seasonal transient effects. Next steps towards model refinement include the development of a transient groundwater flow model that is suitable for analysis of seasonal variability in hydraulic heads and flows. In addition, several important groundwater budget components remain poorly quantified—including groundwater outflow to the Matanuska River, Little Susitna River, and Knik Arm.

Alaska

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 1997

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Open-File Report

A Multitracer Approach to Detecting Wastewater Plumes from Municipal Injection Wells in Nearshore Marine Waters at Kihei and Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii

Municipal wastewater plumes discharging from aquifer to ocean were detected by nearshore wading surveys at Kihei and Lahaina, on the island of Maui in Hawaii. Developed in cooperation with the Hawaii State Department of Health, the survey methodology included instrument trolling to detect submarine groundwater discharge, followed by analysis of water and macroalgae for a suite of chemical and isotopic constituents that constitute a 'multitracer' approach. Surveys were conducted May 6-28, 2008, during fair-weather conditions and included: (1) wading and kayak trolling with a multiparameter water-quality sonde, (2) marine water-column sampling, and (3) collection of benthic algae samples. Instrument trolling helped guide the water sampling strategy by providing dense, continuous transects of water properties on which groundwater discharge zones could be identified. Water and algae samples for costly chemical and isotopic laboratory analyses were last to be collected but were highly diagnostic of wastewater presence and nutrient origin because of low detection levels and confirmation across multiple tracers. Laboratory results confirmed the presence of wastewater constituents in marine water-column samples at both locales and showed evidence of modifying processes such as denitrification and mixing of effluent with surrounding groundwater and seawater. Carbamazepine was the most diagnostic pharmaceutical, detected in several marine water-column samples and effluent at both Kihei and Lahaina. Heavy nitrogen-isotope compositions in water and algae were highly diagnostic of effluent, particularly where enriched to even heavier values than effluent source compositions by denitrification. Algae provided an added advantage of time-integrating their nitrogen source during growth. The measured Kihei plume coincided almost exactly with prior model predictions, but the Lahaina plume was detected well south of the expected direct path from injection wells to shore and may be guided by a buried valley fill from an ancestral course of Honokowai Stream. Nutrient concentrations in upland wells at Lahaina were comparable to concentrations in wastewater but originate instead from agricultural fertilizers. A key factor in detecting and mapping the wastewater plumes was sampling very close to shore (mostly within 20 m or so) and in very shallow water (mostly 0.5 to 2 m depth). Effluent probably discharges somewhat offshore as well, although prior attempts to detect an injected fluorescent tracer at Lahaina in the 1990s were inconclusive, having focused farther offshore in water mostly 10-30 m deep. Sampling of benthic porewater and algae would offer the best chances for further effluent detection and mapping offshore, and sampling of onland monitor wells could provide additional understanding of geochemical processes that take place in the effluent plumes and bring about some degree of natural attenuation of nutrients.

Scientific Investigations Report

Development of flood-inundation maps for the Mississippi River in Saint Paul, Minnesota

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.3-mile reach of the Mississippi River in Saint Paul, Minnesota, were developed through a multi-agency effort by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and in collaboration with the National Weather Service. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the U.S. Geological Survey Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ and the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage at the Mississippi River at Saint Paul (05331000). The National Weather Service forecasted peak-stage information at the streamgage may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the Mississippi River by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated using the most recent stage-discharge relation at the Robert Street location (rating curve number 38.0) of the Mississippi River at Saint Paul (streamgage 05331000), as well as an approximate water-surface elevation-discharge relation at the Mississippi River at South Saint Paul (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers streamgage SSPM5). The model also was verified against observed high-water marks from the recent 2011 flood event and the water-surface profile from existing flood insurance studies. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 25 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals ranging from approximately bankfull stage to greater than the highest recorded stage at streamgage 05331000. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from high-resolution topography data, to delineate potential areas flooded and to determine the water depths within the inundated areas for each stage at streamgage 05331000. The availability of these maps along with information regarding current stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage and forecasted stages from the National Weather Service provides enhanced flood warning and visualization of the potential effects of a forecasted flood for the city of Saint Paul and its residents. The maps also can aid in emergency management planning and response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Minnesota