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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Preliminary geologic map of Black Canyon and surrounding region, Nevada and Arizona

Thermal springs in Black Canyon of the Colorado River, downstream of Hoover Dam, are important recreational, ecological, and scenic features of the Lake Mead National Recreation Area. This report presents the results from a U.S. Geological Survey study of the geologic framework of the springs. The study was conducted in cooperation with the National Park Service and funded by both the National Park Service and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The report has two parts: A, a 1:48,000-scale geologic map created from existing geologic maps and augmented by new geologic mapping and geochronology; and B, an interpretive report that presents results based on a collection of fault kinematic data near springs within Black Canyon and construction of 1:100,000-scale geologic cross sections that extend across the western Lake Mead region. Exposures in Black Canyon are mostly of Miocene volcanic rocks, underlain by crystalline basement composed of Miocene plutonic rocks or Proterozoic metamorphic rocks. The rocks are variably tilted and highly faulted. Faults strike northwest to northeast and include normal and strike-slip faults. Spring discharge occurs along faults intruded by dacite dikes and plugs; weeping walls and seeps extend away from the faults in highly fractured rock or relatively porous volcanic breccias, or both. Results of kinematic analysis of fault data collected along tributaries to the Colorado River indicate two episodes of deformation, consistent with earlier studies. The earlier episode formed during east-northeast-directed extension, and the later during east-southeast-directed extension. At the northern end of the study area, pre-existing fault blocks that formed during the first episode were rotated counterclockwise along the left-lateral Lake Mead Fault System. The resulting fault pattern forms a complex arrangement that provides both barriers and pathways for groundwater movement within and around Black Canyon. Regional cross sections in this report show that thick Paleozoic carbonate aquifer rocks of east-central Nevada do not extend into the Black Canyon area and generally are terminated to the south at a major tectonic boundary defined by the northeast-striking Lake Mead Fault System and the northwest-striking Las Vegas Valley shear zone. Faults to the west of Black Canyon strike dominantly north-south and form a complicated pattern that may inhibit easterly groundwater movement from Eldorado Valley. To the east of Black Canyon, crystalline Proterozoic rocks locally overlain by Tertiary volcanic rocks in the Black Mountains are bounded by steep north-south normal faults. These faults may also inhibit westerly groundwater movement from Detrital Valley toward Black Canyon. Finally, the cross sections show clearly that Proterozoic basement rocks and (or) Tertiary plutonic rocks are shallow in the Black Canyon area (at the surface to a few hundred meters depth) and are cut by several major faults that discharge most of the springs in the Black Canyon. Therefore, the faults most likely provide groundwater pathways to sufficient depths that the groundwater is heated to the observed temperatures of up to 55 °C.

Arizona, Nevada↗
USGS2014

Geologic framework of thermal springs, Black Canyon, Nevada and Arizona

Thermal springs in Black Canyon of the Colorado River, downstream of Hoover Dam, are important recreational, ecological, and scenic features of the Lake Mead National Recreation Area. This report presents the results from a U.S. Geological Survey study of the geologic framework of the springs. The study was conducted in cooperation with the National Park Service and funded by both the National Park Service and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The report has two parts: A, a 1:48,000-scale geologic map created from existing geologic maps and augmented by new geologic mapping and geochronology; and B, an interpretive report that presents results based on a collection of fault kinematic data near springs within Black Canyon and construction of 1:100,000-scale geologic cross sections that extend across the western Lake Mead region. Exposures in Black Canyon are mostly of Miocene volcanic rocks, underlain by crystalline basement composed of Miocene plutonic rocks or Proterozoic metamorphic rocks. The rocks are variably tilted and highly faulted. Faults strike northwest to northeast and include normal and strike-slip faults. Spring discharge occurs along faults intruded by dacite dikes and plugs; weeping walls and seeps extend away from the faults in highly fractured rock or relatively porous volcanic breccias, or both. Results of kinematic analysis of fault data collected along tributaries to the Colorado River indicate two episodes of deformation, consistent with earlier studies. The earlier episode formed during east-northeast-directed extension, and the later during east-southeast-directed extension. At the northern end of the study area, pre-existing fault blocks that formed during the first episode were rotated counterclockwise along the left-lateral Lake Mead Fault System. The resulting fault pattern forms a complex arrangement that provides both barriers and pathways for groundwater movement within and around Black Canyon. Regional cross sections in this report show that thick Paleozoic carbonate aquifer rocks of east-central Nevada do not extend into the Black Canyon area and generally are terminated to the south at a major tectonic boundary defined by the northeast-striking Lake Mead Fault System and the northwest-striking Las Vegas Valley shear zone. Faults to the west of Black Canyon strike dominantly north-south and form a complicated pattern that may inhibit easterly groundwater movement from Eldorado Valley. To the east of Black Canyon, crystalline Proterozoic rocks locally overlain by Tertiary volcanic rocks in the Black Mountains are bounded by steep north-south normal faults. These faults may also inhibit westerly groundwater movement from Detrital Valley toward Black Canyon. Finally, the cross sections show clearly that Proterozoic basement rocks and (or) Tertiary plutonic rocks are shallow in the Black Canyon area (at the surface to a few hundred meters depth) and are cut by several major faults that discharge most of the springs in the Black Canyon. Therefore, the faults most likely provide groundwater pathways to sufficient depths that the groundwater is heated to the observed temperatures of up to 55 °C.

Arizona, Nevada↗
USGS2017

Altitudinal migration and the future of an iconic Hawaiian honeycreeper in response to climate change and management

Altitudinal movement by tropical birds to track seasonally variable resources can move them from protected areas to areas of increased vulnerability. In Hawaiʻi, historical reports suggest that many Hawaiian honeycreepers such as the ‘I‘iwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) once undertook seasonal migrations, but the existence of such movements today is unclear. Because Hawaiian honeycreepers are highly susceptible to avian malaria, currently minimal in high-elevation forests, understanding the degree to which honeycreepers visit lower elevation forests may be critical to predict the current impact of malaria on population dynamics and how susceptible bird populations may respond to climate change and mitigation scenarios. Using radio telemetry data, we demonstrate for the first time that a large fraction of breeding adult and juvenile ‘I‘iwi originating from an upper-elevation (1,920 m) population at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge exhibit post-breeding movements well below the upper elevational limit for mosquitoes. Bloom data suggest seasonal variation in floral resources is the primary driver of seasonal movement for ‘I‘iwi. To understand the demographic implications of such movement, we developed a spatial individual-based model calibrated using previously published and original data. ʻI‘iwi dynamics were simulated backward in time, to estimate population levels in the absence of avian malaria, and forward in time, to assess the impact of climate warming as well as two potential mitigation actions. Even in disease-free ‘refuge’ populations, we found that breeding densities failed to reach the estimated carrying capacity, suggesting the existence of a seasonal “migration load” as a result of travel to disease-prevalent areas. We predict that ‘I‘iwi may be on the verge of extinction in 2100, with the total number of pairs reaching only ~ 0.2–12.3% of the estimated pre-malaria density, based on an optimistic climate change scenario. The probability of extinction of ‘I‘iwi populations, as measured by population estimates for 2100, is strongly related to their estimated migration propensity. Long-term conservation strategies likely will require a multi-pronged response including a reduction of malaria threats, habitat restoration and continued landscape-level access to seasonally variable nectar resources.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2026

Waterfowl move less in heterogeneous and human-populated landscapes, with implications for spread of avian influenza viruses

Animal movements contribute to the spread of infectious diseases and are driven in part by environmental conditions. We investigated the links among the environment, animal movement, and infectious disease dynamics in waterfowl, which are among the primary wildlife hosts of avian influenza viruses. By combining telemetry data on 4606 individuals from 26 waterfowl species with data on land cover, weather, and vegetation, we found that waterfowl moved less in areas of higher land cover heterogeneity and higher human population density. Moreover, predicted waterfowl movement distances were weakly but positively correlated with distances between detections of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild waterfowl, suggesting that environmental conditions might contribute to the spread of this disease via their effects on bird movements. By considering wildlife movements alongside other drivers of infectious disease dynamics, such as livestock production and human mobility, we move closer to predicting outbreaks and informing interventions.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2026

Habitat restoration efforts increase patch retention times in migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus)

Mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) populations have been declining across much of their range, often due to habitat alteration. Habitat alterations, including the introduction of non-native annual grasses and the expansion of pinyon–juniper (PJ) forests on sagebrush ecosystems, are changing resource availability compared to historical conditions. Extensive habitat restoration has been completed across the State of Utah to foster plant communities that better reflect historical conditions and optimal mule deer habitat. We investigated how patch retention times differ on eight different habitat restoration treatment types and random locations during summer and winter across the State of Utah, to evaluate the efficacy of restoration treatments for migratory mule deer, as retention time is expected to reflect resource availability. We developed seasonal moving-window Brownian Bridge Movement Models for individual mule deer ( n = 593 animals), and intersected occurrence distributions (OD) with habitat restoration treatments and randomly generated background landscape polygons. We quantified patch retention time as the number of days individuals’ OD overlapped treatment or random polygons during each season, using a Poisson regression. In winter sites treated to remove PJ, both with (56.5 days, 95% CI [29.3, 108.0]) and without seeding (55.3 days, 95% CI [29.1, 105.8]), as well as sagebrush restoration sites (59.0 days, 95% CI [30.6, 114.8]), had increased retention times when compared to the landscape average (41.9 days, 95% CI [20.7, 84.1]), with effects decreasing 5+ years post-treatment. Retention times in summer were longer across all treatment types in the 2–4-year post-treatment age class (37.5 days, 95% CI [26.3, 53.1]) compared to the landscape average (28.6 days, 95% CI [25.7, 31.8]). Our results demonstrate the positive effects of habitat restoration through increased patch retention times on mule deer winter and summer range and may suggest follow-up treatment 5+ years after initial treatment to maximize mule deer use.

Utah↗
USGS2012

Modelling effects of chemical exposure on birds wintering in agricultural landscapes: The western burrowing owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) as a case study

We describe an ecotoxicological model that simulates the sublethal and lethal effects of chronic, low-level, chemical exposure on birds wintering in agricultural landscapes. Previous models estimating the impact on wildlife of chemicals used in agro-ecosystems typically have not included the variety of pathways, including both dermal and oral, by which individuals are exposed. The present model contains four submodels simulating (1) foraging behavior of individual birds, (2) chemical applications to crops, (3) transfers of chemicals among soil, insects, and small mammals, and (4) transfers of chemicals to birds via ingestion and dermal exposure. We demonstrate use of the model by simulating the impacts of a variety of commonly used herbicides, insecticides, growth regulators, and defoliants on western burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) that winter in agricultural landscapes in southern Texas, United States. The model generated reasonable movement patterns for each chemical through soil, water, insects, and rodents, as well as into the owl via consumption and dermal absorption. Sensitivity analysis suggested model predictions were sensitive to uncertainty associated with estimates of chemical half-lives in birds, soil, and prey, sensitive to parameters associated with estimating dermal exposure, and relatively insensitive to uncertainty associated with details of chemical application procedures (timing of application, amount of drift). Nonetheless, the general trends in chemical accumulations and the relative impacts of the various chemicals were robust to these parameter changes. Simulation results suggested that insecticides posed a greater potential risk to owls of both sublethal and lethal effects than do herbicides, defoliants, and growth regulators under crop scenarios typical of southern Texas, and that use of multiple indicators, or endpoints provided a more accurate assessment of risk due to agricultural chemical exposure. The model should prove useful in helping prioritize the chemicals and transfer pathways targeted in future studies and also, as these new data become available, in assessing the relative danger to other birds of exposure to different types of agricultural chemicals.

Texas↗
USGS2016

Bioenergetic evaluation of diel vertical migration by bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a thermally stratified reservoir

Many species living in deeper lentic ecosystems exhibit daily movements that cycle through the water column, generally referred to as diel vertical migration (DVM). In this study, we applied bioenergetics modelling to evaluate growth as a hypothesis to explain DVM by bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in a thermally stratified reservoir (Ross Lake, WA, USA) during the peak of thermal stratification in July and August. Bioenergetics model parameters were derived from observed vertical distributions of temperature, prey and bull trout. Field sampling confirmed that bull trout prey almost exclusively on recently introduced redside shiner ( Richardsonius balteatus ). Model predictions revealed that deeper (>25 m) DVMs commonly exhibited by bull trout during peak thermal stratification cannot be explained by maximising growth. Survival, another common explanation for DVM, may have influenced bull trout depth use, but observations suggest there may be additional drivers of DVM. We propose these deeper summertime excursions may be partly explained by an alternative hypothesis: the importance of colder water for gametogenesis. In Ross Lake, reliance of bull trout on warm water prey (redside shiner) for consumption and growth poses a potential trade-off with the need for colder water for gametogenesis.

Washington↗
USGS2021

How to increase the supply of native seed to improve restoration success: The US native seed development process

With the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, restoration of damaged ecosystems is turning into a global movement. Restoration actions that are not based on science and an understanding of ecosystem function can thwart desired restoration outcomes at best and cause further damage to ecosystems at worst. Restoration often includes revegetation using seed. Where we source seed for restoration can make a difference for species establishment, restoration outcomes, and recovery of ecosystem function. However, sourcing seeds of native species, let alone genetically appropriate seed, is not currently possible for many restoration projects. The process of increasing and sourcing suitable seed for restoration includes many steps that need to be addressed typically years before a restoration project is initiated. These steps of seed collection, evaluation and development, field establishment, production, certification and procurement, storage, and finally restoration, need to be considered ideally at a scale larger than individual restoration projects and with research conducted in each step. We describe these steps as implemented in the United States, the challenges therein, and provide suggestions and examples of how groups can make efficient and effective progress toward getting the right seed in the right place at the right time.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2021

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗
USGS2017

Landscape complementation revealed through bipartite networks: An example with the Florida manatee

Context Landscape complementation, or how landscapes that contain two or more non-substitutable and spatially separated resources facilitate resource use, is critical for many populations. Implicit to the problem of landscape complementation is the movement of individuals to access multiple resources. Conventional measures of complementation, such as habitat area or distance between habitats, do not consider the spatial configuration of resources or how landscape features impede movement. Objectives We advanced a bipartite network approach to capture the spatial configuration and connectivity of two habitat types and contrasted this framework to conventional approaches in a habitat selection model. Methods Using satellite-telemetry of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), a marine mammal that relies on two distinct, spatially separate habitats for foraging and thermoregulating, we parameterized and compared mixed conditional logistic models with covariates describing classic habitat selection metrics, conventional measures of landscape complementation, and bipartite network metrics. Results The models best supported included habitat area, resistance distance between habitats, and the bipartite network metric eigenvector centrality. The connectivity between habitats and the spatial configuration of one habitat type relative to other types better described habitat selection than conventional measures of landscape complementation alone. The type of habitat, i.e. seagrass or thermal refuge, influenced both the direction and magnitude of the response. Conclusions Landscape complementation is an important predictor of selection and thus classic complementation measures are not sufficient in describing the process. Formalization of complementation with bipartite network can therefor reveal effects potentially missed with conventional measures.

Florida↗
USGS2008

A comparison of seed banks across a sand dune successional gradient at Lake Michigan dunes (Indiana, USA)

In habitats where disturbance is frequent, seed banks are important for the regeneration of vegetation. Sand dune systems are dynamic habitats in which sand movement provides intermittent disturbance. As succession proceeds from bare sand to forest, the disturbance decreases. At Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, we examined the seed banks of three habitat types across a successional gradient: foredunes, secondary dunes, and oak savanna. There were differences among the types of species that germinated from each of the habitats. The mean seed bank density increased across the successional gradient by habitat, from 376 to 433 to 968 seeds m -2 , but with foredune and secondary dune seed bank densities being significantly lower than the savanna seed bank density. The number of seeds germinated was significantly correlated with soil organic carbon, demonstrating for this primary successional sequence that seed density increases with stage and age. The seed bank had much lower species richness than that of the aboveground vegetation across all habitats. Among sites within a habitat type, the similarity of species germinated from the seed banks was very low, illustrating the variability of the seed bank even in similar habitat types. These results suggest that restoration of these habitats cannot rely on seed banks alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS2008

Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method. We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site. We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber . For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species. Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be viewed as another variation of Pollock's robust design and may be applicable to a wide variety of scenarios where species occur in an area but are not always near the sampled locations. The estimation approach is likely to be especially useful in multispecies conservation programmes by providing efficient estimates using multiple detection devices and by providing device-specific detection probability estimates for use in survey design.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2008

Genetic evidence of intercontinental movement of avian influenza in a migratory bird: The northern pintail (Anas acuta)

The role of migratory birds in the movement of the highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza H5N1 remains a subject of debate. Testing hypotheses regarding intercontinental movement of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses will help evaluate the potential that wild birds could carry Asian-origin strains of HP avian influenza to North America during migration. Previous North American assessments of LPAI genetic variation have found few Asian reassortment events. Here, we present results from whole-genome analyses of LPAI isolates collected in Alaska from the northern pintail (Anas acuta), a species that migrates between North America and Asia. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the genetic divergence between Asian and North American strains of LPAI, but also suggested inter-continental virus exchange and at a higher frequency than previously documented. In 38 isolates from Alaska, nearly half (44.7%) had at least one gene segment more closely related to Asian than to North American strains of LPAI. Additionally, sequences of several Asian LPAI isolates from GenBank clustered more closely with North American northern pintail isolates than with other Asian origin viruses. Our data support the role of wild birds in the intercontinental transfer of influenza viruses, and reveal a higher degree of transfer in Alaska than elsewhere in North America. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Effects of snake fungal disease on short‐term survival, behavior, and movement in free‐ranging snakes

Pathogenic fungi are increasingly associated with epidemics in wildlife populations. Snake fungal disease (SFD, also referred to as Ophidiomycosis) is an emerging threat to snakes, taxa that are elusive and difficult to sample. Thus, assessments of the effects of SFD on populations have rarely occurred. We used a field technique to enhance detection, Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) telemetry, and a multi‐state capture–mark–recapture model to assess SFD effects on short‐term (within‐season) survival, movement, and surface activity of two wild snake species, Regina septemvittata (Queensnake) and Nerodia sipedon (Common Watersnake). We were unable to detect an effect of disease state on short‐term survival for either species. However, we estimated Bayesian posterior probabilities of >0.99 that R. septemvittata with SFD spent more time surface‐active and were less likely to permanently emigrate from the study area. We also estimated probabilities of 0.98 and 0.87 that temporary immigration and temporary emigration rates, respectively, were lower in diseased R. septemvittata . We found evidence of elevated surface activity and lower temporary immigration rates in diseased N. sipedon , with estimated probabilities of 0.89, and found considerably less support for differences in permanent or temporary emigration rates. This study is the first to yield estimates for key demographic and behavioral parameters (survival, emigration, surface activity) of snakes in wild populations afflicted with SFD. Given the increase in surface activity of diseased snakes, future surveys of snake populations could benefit from exploring longer‐term demographic consequences of SFD and recognize that disease prevalence in surface‐active animals may exceed that of the population as a whole.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

An evaluation of multistate occupancy models for estimating relative abundance and population trends

Detecting spatiotemporal changes in the abundances of organisms is key to effectively conserving species. While indices of abundance have long been used, there has been a shift toward model-based estimators that account for the detection process. Popular approaches including traditional occupancy models and N-mixture models entail tradeoffs. The traditional occupancy approach requires the researcher coarsen the characterization of abundance to the probability that a site is occupied or unoccupied. Conversely, N-mixture models make use of variation in counts, but perform poorly when individuals have low detectability or move into or out of sites between visits. Multistate occupancy models that differentiate relatively abundant from non-abundant states have the potential to fill this gap but have been underexplored. We conducted a simulation study to test whether multistate occupancy models could capture spatial abundance patterns and detect population declines in the face of low individual detection probability ( p ≤ 0.3) and unmodeled heterogeneity (e.g., that arising from individual movement). We considered 10,773 scenarios to examine the effects of differing amounts of heterogeneity as well as alternative study designs, population parameters, and modeling choices. We tracked bias in the proportion of sites estimated to be in the abundant state for single-season models, and power to detect a declining trend across multiple years. We also evaluated data diagnostic metrics to provide guidance to users. Multistate occupancy models were able to differentiate sites with higher abundances from sites with lower abundances when there were at least medium levels of spatial heterogeneity in true abundances. If different sites were randomly selected each year, power to detect even large population declines (65%) was poor (power < 0.8). However, if the same sites were surveyed each year, and a dynamic multistate occupancy was used, multistate occupancy models could detect (power ≥ 0.8) relatively small declines (5-40%) in 20% of scenarios, and frequently detect large declines of 45-60% (mean power = 0.92). Conservation decisions rely on detecting change reliably, rarely needing absolute abundance information. Multistate occupancy models can improve our ability to detect changing abundance while accommodating low individual detection probability and heterogeneity in count monitoring data.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Movements and habitat use of loons for assessment of conservation buffer zones in the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

Oil and gas development in the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska, may pose threats to wildlife. Management guidelines within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska dictate buffer zones for coastal wildlife habitat and for breeding and foraging sites of yellow-billed loons (YBLOs; Gavia adamsii), a species of conservation concern. However, few data exist to assess the value of these buffer zones for YBLOs or for sympatrically breeding red-throated loons (RTLOs; G. stellata) and Pacific loons (PALOs; G. pacifica). We evaluated movements of these loons on the Arctic Coastal Plain to understand: 1) seasonal timing; 2) marine habitat use; and 3) spatial characteristics of breeding home ranges. We then used those findings to evaluate current management strategies in the context of loon biology. Compared to RTLOs and PALOs, YBLOs nested on larger lakes, stayed on them longer, had larger home ranges, but less frequently used the marine environment in summer. During autumn, YBLOs and PALOs were located farther from shore than during spring or summer, whereas RTLOs used the marine environment similarly during all three seasons. Management buffers established for YBLO nesting areas corresponded well with nest site space use of all three species, suggesting cross-taxa applicability of current management guidelines for nesting habitat. However, the majority of loon locations on the Arctic Coastal Plain were outside of coastal buffer zones established to protect fish and wildlife habitat within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. These findings can inform assessment of conservation buffer zones to mitigate anthropogenic disturbance to loons in Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Conifer seedling recruitment across a gradient from forest to alpine tundra: effects of species, provenance, and site

Background: Seedling germination and survival is a critical control on forest ecosystem boundaries, such as at the alpine–treeline ecotone. In addition, while it is known that species respond individualistically to the same suite of environmental drivers, the potential additional effect of local adaptation on seedling success has not been evaluated. Aims: To determine whether local adaptation may influence the position and movement of forest ecosystem boundaries, we quantified conifer seedling recruitment in common gardens across a subalpine forest to alpine tundra gradient at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Methods: We studied Pinus flexilis and Picea engelmannii grown from seed collected locally at High (3400 m a.s.l.) and Low (3060 m a.s.l.) elevations. We monitored emergence and survival of seeds sown directly into plots and survival of seedlings germinated indoors and transplanted after snowmelt. Results: Emergence and survival through the first growing season was greater for P. flexilis than P. engelmannii and for Low compared with High provenances. Yet survival through the second growing season was similar for both species and provenances. Seedling emergence and survival tended to be greatest in the subalpine forest and lowest in the alpine tundra. Survival was greater for transplants than for field-germinated seedlings. Conclusions: These results suggest that survival through the first few weeks is critical to the establishment of natural germinants. In addition, even small distances between seed sources can have a significant effect on early demographic performance – a factor that has rarely been considered in previous studies of tree recruitment and species range shifts.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Adélie penguins coping with environmental change: Results from a natural experiment at the edge of their breeding range

We investigated life history responses to extreme variation in physical environmental conditions during a long-term demographic study of Adélie penguins at 3 colonies representing 9% of the world population and the full range of breeding colony sizes. Five years into the 14-year study (1997–2010) two very large icebergs (spanning 1.5 latitude degrees in length) grounded in waters adjacent to breeding colonies, dramatically altering environmental conditions during 2001–2005. This natural experiment allowed us to evaluate the relative impacts of expected long-term, but also extreme, short-term climate perturbations on important natural history parameters that can regulate populations. The icebergs presented physical barriers, not just to the penguins but to polynya formation, which profoundly increased foraging effort and movement rates, while reducing breeding propensity and productivity, especially at the smallest colony. We evaluated the effect of a variety of environmental parameters during breeding, molt, migration and wintering periods during years with and without icebergs on penguin breeding productivity, chick mass, and nesting chronology. The icebergs had far more influence on the natural history parameters of penguins than any of the other environmental variables measured, resulting in population level changes to metrics of reproductive performance, including delays in nesting chronology, depressed breeding productivity, and lower chick mass. These effects were strongest at the smallest, southern-most colony, which was most affected by alteration of the Ross Sea Polynya during years the iceberg was present. Additionally, chick mass was negatively correlated with colony size, supporting previous findings indicating density-dependent energetic constraints at the largest colony. Understanding the negative effects of the icebergs on the short-term natural history of Adélie penguins, as well as their response to long-term environmental variation, are important to our overall understanding of climate change effects in this and other species facing both rapid and persistent environmental change.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗