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Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of adaptive monitoring. We suspect our situation is not unique and many programs may suffer from the same inferential disconnect. Commonly, the survey design is optimized for robust estimates of regional status and trend detection and not necessarily to provide statistical inferences on the causal mechanisms outlined in the conceptual model, even though these relationships are typically used to justify and promote the long-term monitoring of a chosen ecological indicator. Our application demonstrates a process for empirical evaluation of conceptual models and exemplifies the need for such interim assessments in order for programs to evolve and persist.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oreg↗

Global land cover mapping using Earth observation satellite data: Recent progresses and challenges

Land cover is an important variable for many studies involving the Earth surface, such as climate, food security, hydrology, soil erosion, atmospheric quality, conservation biology, and plant functioning. Land cover not only changes with human caused land use changes, but also changes with nature. Therefore, the state of land cover is highly dynamic. In winter snow shields underneath various other land cover types in higher latitudes. Floods may persist for a long period in a year over low land areas in the tropical and subtropical regions. Forest maybe burnt or clear cut in a few days and changes to bare land. Within several months, the coverage of crops may vary from bare land to nearly 100% crops and then back to bare land following harvest. The highly dynamic nature of land cover creates a challenge in mapping and monitoring which remains to be adequately addressed. As economic globalization continues to intensify, there is an increasing trend of land cover/land use change, environmental pollution, land degradation, biodiversity loss at the global scale, timely and reliable information on global land cover and its changes is urgently needed to mitigate the negative impact of global environment change.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

Comparative biogeochemistry-ecosystem-human interactions on dynamic continental margins

The ocean’s continental margins face strong and rapid change, forced by a combination of direct human activity, anthropogenic CO 2 -induced climate change, and natural variability. Stimulated by discussions in Goa, India at the IMBER IMBIZO III, we (1) provide an overview of the drivers of biogeochemical variation and change on margins, (2) compare temporal trends in hydrographic and biogeochemical data across different margins (3) review ecosystem responses to these changes, (4) highlight the importance of margin time series for detecting and attributing change and (5) examine societal responses to changing margin biogeochemistry and ecosystems. We synthesize information over a wide range of margin settings in order to identify the commonalities and distinctions among continental margin ecosystems. Key drivers of biogeochemical variation include long-term climate cycles, CO 2 -induced warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, as well as sea level rise, eutrophication, hydrologic and water cycle alteration, changing land use, fishing, and species invasion. Ecosystem responses are complex and impact major margin services including primary production, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, shoreline protection, chemical buffering, and biodiversity. Despite regional differences, the societal consequences of these changes are unarguably large and mandate coherent actions to reduce, mitigate and adapt to multiple stressors on continental margins.

Journal of Marine Systems↗

On incorporating fire into our thinking about natural ecosystems: A response to Saha and Howe

Ecologists long have had a fascination with fire impacts, although they have been slow to incorporate this ecological factor into serious thinking about the structure of communities and evolution of species (Bond and van Wilgen 1996). The remarks by Saha and Howe (2001, in this issue) illustrate some of the problems ecologists have in trying to apply fire to their thinking about natural ecosystems. Fire is commonly perceived qualitatively in terms of presence or absence, and the variation in frequency and intensity, as well as other components of the fire regime (e.g., fig. 1), is ignored. Often not considered is the fact that plant life histories are fine-tuned to particular fire regims, and in this regard, landscapes present a range of selective peaks and valleys, both figuratively and literally. Because landscape patterns affect the propagation of natural fires, it is imperative that the degree of human disturbance be considered (e.g. Marsh [1864] 1965; Gadgil and Guhu 1993) and the limitations of basing evolutionary arguments on anthropogenically derived landscapes be recognized (e.g., Janzen and Martin 1982).

American Naturalist↗

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

Conservation Biology↗

Conservation issues and strategies for elephant-shrews

The recommendations and implementation of the IUCN conservation plan for African Insectivora and elephant-shrews (Nicoll & Rathbun, 1990) are reviewed. Of the 33 species and subspecies of elephant-shrews, only six forest-dwelling taxa are threatened. Until additional status data are gathered, assessed, and published no changes in the IUCN threatened categories should be made: Rhynchocyon chrysopygus is ‘vulnerable’; Rhynchocyon petersi petersi and Rhynchocyon petersi adersi are ‘rare’; and Rhynchocyon cirnei cirnei, Rhynchocyon cirnei hendersoni , and Petrodromus tetradactylus sangi are ‘insufficiently known’. Implementing status surveys that have not been completed, especially for the forms of R. petersi and P. t. sangi , are a high priority. Rhynchocyon petersi and R. chrysopygus densities are lower in altered and trapped forests compared with undisturbed forests. Because undisturbed forests in eastern Africa are highly fragmented, small, and disappearing due to human encroachment, it is important to determine the population dynamics of Rhynchocyon spp. that occupy degraded forest habitats, such as plantations, follow agricultural lands, and coastal scrub. In the face of the expanding human population, with its increasing need for land and natural resources, Rhynchocyon populations that occur in these degraded habitats may be all that remain in the future.

Mammal Review↗

Behavioral response of manatees to variations in environmental sound levels

Florida manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) inhabit coastal regions because they feed on the aquatic vegetation that grows in shallow waters, which are the same areas where human activities are greatest. Noise produced from anthropogenic and natural sources has the potential to affect these animals by eliciting responses ranging from mild behavioral changes to extreme aversion. Sound levels were calculated from recordings made throughout behavioral observation periods. An information theoretic approach was used to investigate the relationship between behavior patterns and sound level. Results indicated that elevated sound levels affect manatee activity and are a function of behavioral state. The proportion of time manatees spent feeding and milling changed in response to sound level. When ambient sound levels were highest, more time was spent in the directed, goal-oriented behavior of feeding, whereas less time was spent engaged in undirected behavior such as milling. This work illustrates how shifts in activity of individual manatees may be useful parameters for identifying impacts of noise on manatees and might inform population level effects.

Marine Mammal Science↗

The Beringian coevolution project: Holistic collections of mammals and associated parasites reveal novel perspectives on evolutionary and environmental change in the North

The Beringian Coevolution Project (BCP), a field program underway in the high northern latitudes since 1999, has focused on building key scientific infrastructure for integrated specimen-based studies on mammals and their associated parasites. BCP has contributed new insights across temporal and spatial scales into how ancient climate and environmental change have shaped faunas, emphasizing processes of assembly, persistence, and diversification across the vast Beringian region. BCP collections also represent baseline records of biotic diversity from across the northern high latitudes at a time of accelerated environmental change. These specimens and associated data form an unmatched resource for identifying hidden diversity, interpreting past responses to climate oscillations, documenting contemporary conditions, and anticipating outcomes for complex biological systems in a regime of ecological perturbation. Because of its dual focus on hosts and parasites, the BCP record also provides a foundation for comparative analyses that can document the effects of dynamic change on the geographic distribution, transmission dynamics, and emergence of pathogens. By using specific examples from carnivores, shrews, lagomorphs, rodents and their associated parasites, we demonstrate how broad, integrated field collections provide permanent infrastructure that informs policy decisions regarding human impact and the effect of climate change on natural populations.

Arctic Science↗

Beliefs and attitudes toward lethal management of deer in Cuyahoga Valley National Park

We used the theory of reasoned action to help understand attitudes and beliefs about lethal management of deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP), Ohio. We used a mail-back survey to collect data from Ohio residents in the surrounding 9-county area. Two strata were defined: residents <10 km from CVNP (near n = 369) and residents =10 km from CVNP (far n = 312). Respondents indicated that lethal control of deer was acceptable (near 71%??4.7%, far 62%??5.5%) and taking no action to reduce deer populations was unacceptable (near 75%??4.5%, far 72%??5.1%). Beliefs about outcomes of lethal control and evaluation of those outcomes proved to be strong predictors of the acceptability of lethal control of deer in CVNP. Lethal control was more acceptable if it was done to prevent severe consequences for humans (e.g., spread of disease, car collisions) or the natural environment (e.g., maintain a healthy deer herd) than to prevent negative aesthetic impacts or personal property damage. Results from the study can be used to assist managers at CVNP as they make decisions regarding alternatives for deer management in the park and to inform others managing abundant deer populations of socially relevant impacts of management actions.

Conference Paper↗

Ecosystem history: Terrestrial and fresh-water ecosystems of southern Florida

Introduction Plant and animal communities of the historic Everglades have undergone striking changes over the last few decades, including declines in wading bird populations, invasion by exotic (non-native) plant and animal species, and areal expansion of cattails into sawgrass marshes. Many of these changes have been attributed to human activities in the region, and efforts are underway to restore the Everglades to a more pristine state. Restoration plans include alteration of the present levee and canal system that controls water flow throughout southern Florida and changes in agricultural and land development activities. However, can we be sure that the observed changes are related to human practices rather than representing an extreme in the natural variability of the system? This question should be answered before changing current land-use practices to alleviate environmental concerns. To address this question, it is necessary to look at patterns of floral and faunal change over the last century as well as over the last few millennia. This project aims to reconstruct floral and faunal composition at selected time intervals throughout southern Florida to determine: 1) detailed biotic changes over the last 150 years; 2) the natural range of biotic variability over the last few thousand years; and 3) determine whether any cause-and-effect relationships exist between biotic and environmental changes. Such questions are being addressed by scientists in the South Florida Initiative of the Ecosystem Program at the U.S. Geological Survey.

Florida↗

The USGS role in mapping the nation's submerged lands

The seabed provides habitat for a diverse marine life having commercial, recreational, and intrinsic value. The habitat value of the seabed is largely a function of the geological structure and related geological, biological, oceanologic, and geochemical processes. Of equal importance, the nation's submerged lands contain energy and mineral resources and are utilized for the siting of offshore infrastructure and waste disposal. Seabed character and processes influence the safety and viability of offshore operations. Seabed and subseabed characterization is a prerequisite for the assessment, protection, and utilization of both living and non-living marine resources. A comprehensive program to characterize and understand the nation's submerged lands requires scientific expertise in the fields of geology, biology, hydrography, and oceanography. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has long experience as the Federal agency charged with conducting geologic research and mapping in both coastal and offshore regions. The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP) leads the nation in expertise related to characterization of seabed and subseabed geology, geological processes, seabed dynamics, and (in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and international partners) habitat geoscience. Numerous USGS studies show that sea-floor geology and processes determine the character and distribution of biological habitats, control coastal evolution, influence the coastal response to storm events and human alterations, and determine the occurrence and concentration of natural resources.

Fact Sheet↗

The hydrogeology of the Tully Valley, Onondaga County, New York: an overview of research, 1992-2012

Onondaga Creek begins approximately 15 miles south of Syracuse, New York, and flows north through the Onondaga Indian Nation, then through Syracuse, and finally into Onondaga Lake in central New York. Tully Valley is in the upper part of the Onondaga Creek watershed between U.S. Route 20 and the Valley Heads end moraine near Tully, N.Y. Tully Valley has a history of several unusual hydrogeologic phenomena that affected past land use and the water quality of Onondaga Creek; the phenomena are still present and continue to affect the area today (2014). These phenomena include mud volcanoes or mudboils, landslides, and land-surface subsidence; all are considered to be naturally occurring but may also have been influenced by human activity. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Onondaga Lake Partnership, began a study of the Tully Valley mudboils beginning in October 1991 in hopes of understanding (1) what drives mudboil activity in order to remediate mudboil influence on the water quality of Onondaga Creek, and (2) land-surface subsidence issues that have caused a road bridge to collapse, a major pipeline to be rerouted, and threatened nearby homes. Two years into this study, the 1993 Tully Valley landslide occurred just over 1 mile northwest of the mudboils. This earth slump-mud flow was the largest landslide in New York in more than 70 years (Fickies, 1993); this event provided additional insight into the geology and hydrology of the valley. As the study of the Tully Valley mudboils progressed, other unusual hydrogeologic phenomena were found within the Tully Valley and provided the opportunity to perform short-term, small-scale studies, some of which became graduate student theses—Burgmeier (1998), Curran (1999), Morales-Muniz (2000), Baldauf (2003), Epp (2005), Hackett, (2007), Tamulonis (2010), and Sinclair (2013). The unusual geology and hydrology of the Tully Valley, having been investigated for more than two decades, provides the basis for this report.

New York↗

Fish and Aquatic Invertebrate Communities in Waterways, and Contaminants in Fish, at the Barataria Preserve of Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve, Louisiana, 1999-2000

Fish and aquatic invertebrate communities in waterways of the Barataria Preserve of Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve, Louisiana, were surveyed from 1999 to 2000. An inventory of fish in the Barataria Preserve was established, and concentrations of selected organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, and trace elements; iron; and manganese in fish tissue for selected species were determined. The fish and aquatic invertebrate sampling completed for this study indicated that abundant and diverse communities are present in the Barataria Preserve. Thirty-two species of fish were identified in the Barataria Preserve during this survey. The total number of species identified in a single sampling ranged from 20 to 26. Most of the fish sampled are designated as intermediate in their tolerance to poor water quality. Three species of fish designated as tolerant (common carp, Cyprinus carpio; golden shiner, Notemigonus crysoleucas; and yellow bullhead, Ameiurus natalis), and one as intolerant (lake chubsucker, Erymizon sucetta), were identified. In November 1999, the average total weight of all fish collected by boat-mounted electroshocker from a single site was about 35,000 grams; in May and July 1999, the average total weight was between 9,000 and 10,000 grams. The contribution of spotted gar (Lepisosteus oculatus) to the total weight of the fish averaged between 38 and 41 percent among the three sample periods. Members of the sunfish family (Centrarchidae) contributed between 18 and 28 percent of the total weight. For each sampling period, 60 to 83 percent of the total weight from the sunfish family was contributed by bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Aquatic invertebrates were sampled at three sites. Most aquatic invertebrates identified were freshwater species, but some were brackish-water and marine species. About 234,000 organisms were identified and enumerated from the richest-targeted habitat (RTH, floating rafts of aquatic plants). Individuals from 84 genera belonging to 51 families were identified. Diptera (true flies) was the most diverse group. Malacostraca (crustaceans), especially Amphipoda (scuds and sideswimmers), were the most abundant (36 percent). Total abundance and taxa richness of aquatic invertebrates were comparable during the March and July sampling in 1999, but were lower in samples collected from the same habitat at all three sites in April 2000. About 106 individuals were identified and enumerated from the depositional-targeted habitat (DTH, bottom material). Individuals from 7 genera belonging to 9 families were identified. Diptera was the most diverse group, and Annelida, especially tubificid worms, were the most abundant organisms identified (52 percent). Total abundance and composition of aquatic invertebrate communities differed between RTH and DTH at all three sites in April 2000. Organic compounds in whole fish, and trace elements, iron, and manganese in fillets, were analyzed in bowfin (Amia calva), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), and common carp (Cyprinus carpio). Organic compounds were not detected. Mercury was detected in fillets of all four species. Highest concentrations of mercury were detected in fillets from bowfin and largemouth bass. Mercury concentrations increased with increasing weight in the three predatory fish species (bowfin, bluegill, and largemouth bass), but were much lower, relative to weight, in the omnivore, common carp. Chromium concentrations were detected in tissue of the two larger fish, bowfin and common carp. Cadmium and lead were not detected in any samples. Mercury concentrations for larger predatory fish caught in Preserve waterways may be a concern if the fish are frequently consumed by humans. The process of mercury accumulation appears to be natural, and not related to a local source problem. Mercury concentrations in comparable fish tissue at

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeology and water quality of the West Valley Creek Basin, Chester County, Pennsylvania

The West Valley Creek Basin drains 20.9 square miles in the Piedmont Physiographic Province of southeastern Pennsylvania and is partly underlain by carbonate rocks that are highly productive aquifers. The basin is undergoing rapid urbanization that includes changes in land use and increases in demand for public water supply and wastewater disposal. Ground water is the sole source of supply in the basin. West Valley Creek flows southwest in a 1.5-mile-wide valley that is underlain by folded and faulted carbonate rocks and trends east-northeast, parallel to regional geologic structures. The valley is flanked by hills underlain by quartzite and gneiss to the north and by phyllite and schist to the south. Surface water and ground water flow from the hills toward the center of the valley. Ground water in the valley flows west-southwest parallel to the course of the stream. Seepage investigations identified losing reaches in the headwaters area where streams are underlain by carbonate rocks and gaining reaches downstream. Tributaries contribute about 75 percent of streamflow. The ground-water and surface-water divides do not coincide in the carbonate valley. The ground-water divide is about 0.5 miles west of the surface-water divide at the eastern edge of the carbonate valley. Underflow to the east is about 1.1 inches per year. Quarry dewatering operations at the western edge of the valley may act partly as an artificial basin boundary, preventing underflow to the west. Water budgets for 1990, a year of normal precipitation (45.8 inches), and 1991, a year of sub-normal precipitation (41.5 inches), were calculated. Streamflow was 14.61 inches in 1990 and 12.08 inches in 1991. Evapotranspiration was estimated to range from 50 to 60 percent of precipitation. Base flow was about 62 percent of streamflow in both years. Exportation by sewer systems was about 3 inches from the basin and, at times, equaled base flow during the dry autumn of 1991. Recharge was estimated to be 18.5 inches in 1990 and 13.7 inches in 1991. Ground-water quality in the basin reflects differences in lithology and has been affected by human activities. Ground water in the carbonate rocks is naturally hard, has a near neutral pH, and contains more dissolved solids and less dissolved iron, manganese, and radon-222 than ground water in the noncarbonate rocks, which is soft, with moderately acidic to acidic pH. Regional contamination by chloride and nitrate and local contamination by organic compounds and metals was detected. Natural background concentrations are estimated to be about 1 milligram per liter for nitrate as nitrogen and less than 3 milligrams per liter for chloride. Ground water in unsewered areas and agricultural areas of the basin has median concentrations of nitrate that are greater than those in ground water from other areas; septic system effluent and fertilizer are probable sources of elevated nitrate. Water samples from wells in urbanized areas contain greater concentrations of chloride than samples from wells in residential areas; road salt is the probable source of elevated chloride. Organic solvents, especially trichloroethylene, were detected in 30 percent of the wells sampled in the urbanized carbonate valley. Most of the organic solvents and some of the metals in ground water were detected near old industrial sites. Base-flow stream quality of West Valley Creek was determined at 15 sites from monthly sampling for 1 year. Differences in stream quality reflect differences in lithology, land use, and point sources in tributary subbasins and mainstem reaches. The chemical composition of base flow in the mainstem is dominated by ground-water discharge from carbonate rocks. Elevated concentrations of nitrate (greater than 3 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) in base flow were measured in a tributary draining agricultural land and in a tributary draining an unsewered residential area. Elevated concentrations of phosphate (greater than 0.5 milligrams per liter as phosphorus) were measured in a stream that receives treated sewage effluent. Discharge of water containing elevated sulfate (about 250 milligrams per liter) from quarry dewatering operations contributes to die increase in sulfate concentration (of 10 to 40 milligrams per liter) in base flow downstream from the quarry. The chloride load at all stream sites is greater than the load contributed by precipitation and mineral weathering to the basin, indicating anthropogenic sources of chloride throughout the basin. The diversity index of the benthic invertebrate community has increased since 1973 at the longterm biological monitoring site on West Valley Creek, indicating an improvement in stream quality. The improvement probably is related to controls on discharges and banning of pesticides, such as DOT, in the 1970's. Concentrations of dissolved constituents, except for chloride, determined for base flow in the autumn do not appear to have changed since 1971. Application of the seasonal Kendall test for trend indicates that concentrations of chloride in base flow have increased since 1971; this increase may be related to the increase in urbanization in the basin. The benthic community structure at the West Valley Creek site in 1991 indicates slight nutrient enrichment. Lithium was detected in ground water and surface water downgradient from two lithiumprocessing facilities. Until 1991, lithium was discharged into a losing reach of West Valley Creek, thus introducing lithium into the ground-water system. The potential for cross-contamination between the ground-water and surface-water systems is great, as demonstrated by the detection of lithium in ground water and surface water downstream and downgradient from the two lithium-processing facilities. The lithium that was discharged into the creek acts as a conservative tracer in gaining reaches of West Valley Creek, maintaining a mass balance and characteristic isotopic signature. Lithium-7/lithium-6 ratios were greater in streams that are affected by sewage and by lithium-processing discharges and in ground water downgradient from the lithium-processing facilities than natural background lithium isotopic ratios.

Pennsylvania↗

Deathcore, creativity, and scientific thinking

Background Major scientific breakthroughs are generally the result of materializing creative ideas, the result of an inductive process that sometimes spontaneously and unexpectedly generates a link between thoughts and/or objects that did not exist before. Creativity is the cornerstone of scientific thinking, but scientists in academia are judged by metrics of quantification that often leave little room for creative thinking. In many scientific fields, reductionist approaches are rewarded and new ideas viewed skeptically. As a result, scientific inquiry is often confined to narrow but safe disciplinary ivory towers, effectively preventing profoundly creative explorations that could yield unexpected benefits. New information This paper argues how apparently unrelated fields specifically music and belief systems can be combined in a provocative allegory to provide novel perspectives regarding patterns in nature, thereby potentially inspiring innovation in the natural, social and other sciences. The merger between basic human tensions such as those embodied by religion and music, for example the heavy metal genre of deathcore, may be perceived as controversial, challenging, and uncomfortable. However, it is an example of moving the thinking process out of unconsciously established comfort zones, through the connection of apparently unrelated entities. We argue that music, as an auditory art form, has the potential to enlighten and boost creative thinking in science. Metal, as a fast evolving and diversifying extreme form of musical art, may be particularly suitable to trigger surprising associations in scientific inquiry. This may pave the way for dealing with questions about what we don´t know that we don´t know in a fast-changing planet.

Research Ideas and Outcomes↗

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O . virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Acta Theriologica↗

Avian vacuolar myelinopathy: a newly recognized fatal neurologic disease of eagles, waterfowl, and other birds

Wildlife biologists and health specialists have been frustrated by a long list of negative findings in their AVM investigations, however studies continue to provide pieces of information to aid the determination of the cause and its source. Available data indicated that AVM may have been present since at least 1990, occurs in at least five states, has been documented during October through April at sites of wintering populations of birds where the exposure apparently occurs, and has killed at least 90 bald eagles. Birds with AVM have difficulty or inability to fly, swim, walk, or perch, but there has been resolution of clinical signs in some affected coots. The list of affected species continues to grow, but remains confined to wild avians, including bald eagle, American coot, great horned owl, killdeer, Canada goose, mallard, ring-necked duck and bufflehead. The effects of the AVM agent on mammals, including human beings, are unknown. A neurotoxicant of manmade or natural origin is the suspected cause of AVM because no infectious disease agents, such as viruses, bacteria, parasites and prions, have been found, and the lesion and epizootiology of AVM resemble those of toxicoses. Additionally it is documented, experimentally, that exposure to raptors can occur through ingestion of infected coots. Collaborative studies will continue in the effort to identify the cause of AVM, its geographic distribution, and the range of species susceptibility. Hopefully, this information can be used to identify measures that might be taken to reduce the impact of AVM on the wildlife resource. Multiple agencies, institutions, and individuals must rely on each other's expertise in the multidisciplinary approach to this problem, persevere in their efforts and take advantage of serendipity that presents itself during investigations of this newly recognized cause of wild bird mortality.

Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

Monitoring trail conditions: New methodological considerations

The U.S. National Park Service (NPS) accommodates nearly 300 million visitors per year, visitation that has the potential to produce negative effects on fragile natural and cultural resources. The policy guidance from the NPS Management Policies recognizes the legitimacy of providing opportunities for public enjoyment of parks while acknowledging the need for managers to “seek ways to avoid, or to minimize to the greatest degree practicable, adverse impacts on park resources and values” (NPS 2001). Thus, relative to visitor use, park managers must evaluate the types and extents of resource impacts associated with recreational activities, and determine to what extent they are unacceptable and constitute impairment. Visitor impact monitoring programs can assist managers in making objective evaluations of impact acceptability and impairment and in selecting effective impact management practices by providing quantitative documentation of the types and extent of recreationrelated impacts on natural resources. Monitoring programs are explicitly authorized in Section 4.1 of the Management Policies: Natural systems in the national park system, and the human influences upon them, will be monitored to detect change. The Service will use the results of monitoring and research to understand the detected change and to develop appropriate management actions.

The George Wright Forum↗