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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Prioritizing river basins for nutrient studies

Increases in fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the environment have led to negative impacts affecting drinking water, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Because of the importance, scale, and complexity of these issues, it may be useful to consider methods for prioritizing nutrient research in representative drainage basins within a regional or national context. Two systematic, quantitative approaches were developed to (1) identify basins that geospatial data suggest are most impacted by nutrients and (2) identify basins that have the most variability in factors affecting nutrient sources and transport in order to prioritize basins for studies that seek to understand the key drivers of nutrient impacts. The “impact” approach relied on geospatial variables representing surface-water and groundwater nutrient concentrations, sources of N and P, and potential impacts on receptors (i.e., ecosystems and human health). The “variability” approach relied on geospatial variables representing surface-water nutrient concentrations, factors affecting sources and transport of nutrients, model accuracy, and potential receptor impacts. One hundred and sixty-three drainage basins throughout the contiguous United States were ranked nationally and within 18 hydrologic regions. Nationally, the top-ranked basins from the impact approach were concentrated in the Midwest, while those from the variability approach were dispersed across the nation. Regionally, the top-ranked basin selected by the two approaches differed in 15 of the 18 regions, with top-ranked basins selected by the variability approach having lower minimum concentrations and larger ranges in concentrations than top-ranked basins selected by the impact approach. The highest ranked basins identified using the variability approach may have advantages for exploring how landscape factors affect surface-water quality and how surface-water quality may affect ecosystems. In contrast, the impact approach prioritized basins in terms of human development and nutrient concentrations in both surface water and groundwater, thereby targeting areas where actions to reduce nutrient concentrations could have the largest effect on improving water availability and reducing ecosystem impacts.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2024

Advancing water security in Africa with new high-resolution discharge data

VegDischarge v1 is a comprehensive river discharge across Africa (2000–2021), produced by coupling the agro-hydrologic VegET model and the mizuRoute routing framework. Using remote sensing data and hydrological modeling, the 1-km runoff field simulated by VegET, and routed with mizuRoute, covers over 64,000 river segments in Africa. The VegET model simulates runoff based on vegetation and soil moisture dynamics, while mizuRoute processes this runoff through a detailed river network. Performance metrics show strong model reliability, with R² ranging from 0.5 to 0.9, NSE between 0.6 and 0.9, and KGE from 0.5 to 0.8. The total annual average discharge for Africa is quantified at 3238.1 km³ . year-1, with contributions to various oceanic basins: 989.9 km³ . year-1 to the North Atlantic, primarily from West African rivers like the Senegal, Gambia, Volta, and Niger; 1313.7 km³ . year-1 to the South Atlantic, largely from the Congo River; 212.5 km³ . year-1 to the Mediterranean Sea, predominantly from the Nile River; and 722.0 km³ . year-1 to the Indian Ocean, with substantial inputs from rivers such as the Zambezi. This VegDischarge v1 is valuable for policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers to better understand water availability, its temporal and spatial variations, that impact water-related infrastructure planning, sustainable resource allocation, and the development of climate resilience mitigation strategies.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2006

An integrated chronostratigraphic data system for the twenty-first century

Research in stratigraphy is increasingly multidisciplinary and conducted by diverse research teams whose members can be widely separated. This developing distributed-research process, facilitated by the availability of the Internet, promises tremendous future benefits to researchers. However, its full potential is hindered by the absence of a development strategy for the necessary infrastructure. At a National Science Foundation workshop convened in November 2001, thirty quantitative stratigraphers and database specialists from both academia and industry met to discuss how best to integrate their respective chronostratigraphic databases. The main goal was to develop a strategy that would allow efficient distribution and integration of existing data relevant to the study of geologic time. Discussions concentrated on three major themes: database standards and compatibility, strategies and tools for information retrieval and analysis of all types of global and regional stratigraphic data, and future directions for database integration and centralization of currently distributed depositories. The result was a recommendation to establish an integrated chronostratigraphic database, to be called Chronos, which would facilitate greater efficiency in stratigraphic studies (http://www.chronos.org/) . The Chronos system will both provide greater ease of data gathering and allow for multidisciplinary synergies, functions of fundamental importance in a variety of research, including time scale construction, paleoenvironmental analysis, paleoclimatology and paleoceanography. Beyond scientific research, Chronos will also provide educational and societal benefits by providing an accessible source of information of general interest (e.g., mass extinctions) and concern (e.g., climatic change). The National Science Foundation has currently funded a three-year program for implementing Chronos.. ?? 2006 Geological Society of America. All rights reserved.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2013

Climate-change impacts on ecological systems: Introduction to a US assessment

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject‐matter experts from government agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and provide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assessments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate‐change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assessment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS1966

Some aspects of breeding biology of the blue-winged teal

The Blue-winged Teal ( Anas discors ) was the subject of one of the first publications dealing with the breeding biology of a species of North American waterfowl (Bennett, 1938). Recent studies of the nesting chronology, clutch size, and incubation period of this species include the works of Hochbaum (1944), Sowls (1955), and Glover (1956). The present paper supplements information on these aspects of breeding biology. Field work was done during the summers of 1961, 1962, and 1963 at the Delta Waterfowl Research Station (15 miles north of Portage la Prairie, Manitoba) which is adjacent to the Delta marsh at the south edge of Lake Manitoba. The climate in the area is subhumid. The mean annual temperature is 45.3°F and the annual precipitation is 20.1 inches at Winnipeg (60 miles ESE of Delta). The spring warming trend is variable and influences the time of spring arrival and the start of nesting of waterfowl (Sowls, 1955) and, as will be shown, the temperature may also influence the nesting chronology once a species has begun to nest. The daily mean temperatures and the daily lows at Winnipeg for the springs of 192 and 1963 are graphed in Figures 1 and 2. Daily records kept by nan Multer at Delta show that the temperatures there are similar to those at Winnipeg.

The Auk↗
USGS1999

North Dakota

North Dakota prairies contain numerous wetlands. The complex functions of these prairie wetlands have been of interest for decades. The hydrology, water chemistry, and biological characteristics of these wetlands are highly variable because of extreme warm/cold and wet/dry conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been conducting studies (fig. 1) to gain insight into the functions of the prairie wetlands. The USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown has maintained an active wetland research program since the mid-1960’s. Current work in North Dakota began in 1978, and focuses on the response of biological communities to climate-induced variations in hydrology and chemistry, and on evaluating the success of previously drained wetlands restored under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and on similar lands. The information provided from this long-term study has provided the bulk of our knowledge about prairie wetlands, and has provided land managers with valuable information to manage the Nation’s prairie wetland resource.

North Dakota↗
USGS2011

Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

General Information Product↗
USGS2003

Ecosystem history of southern and central Biscayne Bay: Summary report on sediment core analyses

During the last century, the environs of Biscayne Bay have been greatly affected by anthropogenic alteration through urbanization of the Miami/Dade County area. The sources, timing, delivery, and quality of freshwater flow into the Bay have been changed by construction of a complex canal system that controls movement of water throughout south Florida. Changes in shoreline and sub-aquatic vegetation and marine organisms have been observed and changes in water delivery are believed to be the cause. Current restoration goals are attempting to restore natural flow of fresh water into Biscayne and Florida Bays and to restore the natural fauna and flora, but first we need to determine pre-alteration baseline conditions in order to establish targets and performance measures for restoration. This research is part of an ongoing study designed to address the needs of the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands Project (BBCW) of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). By establishing the natural patterns of temporal change in salinity, water quality, vegetation, and benthic fauna in Biscayne Bay and the nearby wetlands over the last 100- 500 years the USGS, in collaboration with our partners, will provide the data necessary to set realistic targets to achieve the BBCW Project goals. Six cores from three sites in Biscayne Bay were collected in April 2002 for multidisciplinary multi-proxy analyses. This report details the results of these analyses and compares the 2002 cores to cores collected in 1997. The following are our significant findings to date: The salinity of central Biscayne Bay has become increasingly marine and increasingly stable over the last 100 years. At No Name Bank, prior to approximately 1915, the inter-decadal and decadal salinity fluctuations appear to have been greater than after 1915 when salinities stabilized at that site. Continental shelf/open marine influence on the sites has increased during the 20th century. There is no indication of inter-decadal salinity extremes or periods of hypersalinity. Freshwater and mesohaline salinities have had a minor influence on No Name bank throughout the time of deposition. At Featherbed Bank, the influence is reduced to mesohaline salinities. Card Bank has experienced relatively large swings in salinity over multi-decadal and centennial timescales, compared to central Biscayne Bay, but marine influence at the site has increased over the last century. Indications of regional scale patterns have been found, especially in the shell chemistry data and the pollen assemblages. These regional patterns indicate that the changes are not site specific and may not be limited to Biscayne Bay. Sub-aquatic vegetation has undergone bay-wide patterns of change over the last 200-500 years, which includes expansion prior to 1900 and declines during the last century in central Biscayne Bay. Thalassia appears to have increased at all three core sites sometime between 1550 and 1750 AD. A decline in Thalassia appears to have occurred after 1950 at No Name Bank and slightly earlier in the 20th century at Featherbed Bank. Card Bank does not appear to have experienced any declines in vegetation on an inter-decadal scale during the 20th century. Molluscan faunal abundance and diversity have undergone significant changes in central Biscayne Bay. Indicators of increased organic-rich sediments at No Name occur between 1869 to 1888 and between the 1930’s to 1975. These changes may correlate to human activities (settlement, population growth). These findings represent a first step towards the project’s goal to reconstruct the history of Biscayne Bay and they provide us with a working model to be tested at other sites. It is clear from our findings that Biscayne Bay has been a dynamic environment over the last 500 years, with natural changes occurring in salinity and benthic habitats. However, several significant changes have occurred in the 20th century: 1) increased stabilization of marine salinities; 2) declines in seagrass in central Biscayne Bay; 3) dramatic changes in molluscan abundance and diversity in central Biscayne Bay. The question remains - how do we better differentiate natural cycles of change from anthropogenic change within these observed trends? The preliminary implications from our research are that changes in salinity and benthic habitats have occurred naturally in Biscayne Bay on inter-decadal to centennial scales, perhaps due to climatic changes, changes in sea level, bank migrations, or a combination of factors. However, further work needs to be done to determine which components of change in the 20th century are human-induced and which are natural. By examining the historical records preserved in the sediments of Biscayne Bay, we can provide restoration trust agencies with the information necessary to set realistic targets and performance measures for Biscayne Bay.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Loch Vale watershed long-term ecological research and monitoring program quality assurance report, 2003-09

The Loch Vale watershed project is a long-term research and monitoring program located in Rocky Mountain National Park that addresses watershed-scale ecosystem processes, particularly as they respond to atmospheric deposition and climate variability. Measurements of precipitation depth, precipitation chemistry, discharge, and surface-water quality are made within the watershed and elsewhere in Rocky Mountain National Park. As data collected for the program are used by resource managers, scientists, policy makers, and students, it is important that all data collected in Loch Vale watershed meet high standards of quality. In this report, data quality was evaluated for precipitation, discharge, and surface-water chemistry measurements collected during 2003-09. Equipment upgrades were made at the Loch Vale National Atmospheric Deposition Program monitoring site to improve precipitation measurements and evaluate variability in precipitation depth and chemistry. Additional solar panels and batteries have been installed to improve the power supply, and data completeness, at the NADP site. As a result of equipment malfunction, discharge data for the Loch Outlet were estimated from October 18, 2005, to August 17, 2006. Quality-assurance results indicate that more than 98 percent of all surface-water chemistry measurements were accurate and precise. Records that did not meet quality criteria were removed from the database. Measurements of precipitation depth, precipitation chemistry, discharge, and surface-water quality were all sufficiently complete and consistent to support project data needs.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Functional traits and ecological affinities of riparian plants along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Trait-based approaches to vegetation analyses are becoming more prevalent in studies of riparian vegetation dynamics, including responses to flow regulation, groundwater pumping, and climate change. These analyses require species trait data compiled from the literature and floras or original field measurements. Gathering such data makes trait-based research time intensive at best and impracticable in some cases. To support trait-based analysis of vegetation along the Colorado River through Grand Canyon, a data set of 20 biological traits and ecological affinities for 179 species occurring in that study area was compiled. This diverse flora shares species with many riparian areas in the western USA and includes species that occur across a wide moisture gradient. Data were compiled from published scientific papers, unpublished reports, plant fact sheets, existing trait databases, regional floras, and plant guides. Data for ordinal environmental tolerances were more readily available than were quantitative traits. More publicly available data are needed for traits of both common and rare southwestern U.S. plant species to facilitate comprehensive, trait-based research. The trait data set is free to use and can be downloaded from ScienceBase: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/58af41dee4b01ccd54f9f2ff and https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7QV3JN1

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Towards an urgent yet deliberate conservation strategy: Sustaining social-ecological systems in rangelands of the Northern Great Plains, Montana

Urgency and deliberateness are often at odds when executing conservation projects, especially as the scale and complexity of objectives increases. The pace of environmental degradation supports immediate and measurable action. However, best practices for adaptive governance and building resilient social-ecological systems call for more deliberate efforts and participatory processes, which can be slow. We explore conflicts between urgency and deliberateness and the potential for their reconciliation through a case study of the challenges of conserving native rangelands in North America’s Northern Great Plains, an ecoregion targeted for global conservation initiatives. This region is undergoing a significant social-ecological transition, which underscores a need to rethink conservation strategies in light of the social-ecological system dynamics and potential future trajectories. Based on a structured narrative literature review process and iterative engagement with key regional stakeholders, we identify three interrelated factors critical to the system’s future outcomes that illustrate system complexity as well as trade-offs between urgent and deliberate action and unilateral and multilateral approaches to conservation: (1) influences of land management on biodiversity, (2) economic restructuring and shifting land use priorities, and (3) changing climate and disturbance regimes. We identify key gaps in the literature for each factor and across the factors—an effort that informs our call for research and practice agendas that address uncertainty and complexity at regional scales through more inclusive and future-oriented approaches.

Montana↗
USGS1996

Nitrogen transport from tallgrass prairie watersheds

Discharge and N content of surface water flowing from four Karat watersheds on Konza Prairie Research Natural Area, Kansas, managed with different burn frequencies, were monitored from 1986 to 1992. The goal was to establish the influence of natural processes (climate, fire, and bison grazing) on N transport and concentration in streams. Streams were characterized by variable flow, under conditions that included an extreme flood and a drought during which all channels were dry for over a year. The estimated groundwater/stream water discharge ratio varied between 0.15 to 6.41. Annual N transport by streams, averaged across all watersheds and years, was 0.16 kg N ha-1 yr-1. Annual N transport per unit area also increased as the watershed area increased and as precipitation increased. Total annual transport of N horn the prairie via streams ranged from 0.01 to 6.0% of the N input from precipitation. Nitrate and total N concentrations in surface water decreased (P < 0.001, r values ranged from 0.140.26) as length of time since last fire increased. Increased watershed area was correlated negatively (P < 0.0001) to stream water concentrations of NO3-N and total N (r values = -0.43 and -0.20, respectively). Low N concentration is typical of these streams, with NH4/+-N concentrations below 1.0 ??g L-1, NO3-N ranging from below 1.4 to 392 ??g L-1, and total N from 3.0 to 714 ??g L-1. These data provide an important baseline for evaluating N transport and stream water quality from unfertilized grasslands.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

California spotted owls

California spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis occidentalis ) are habitat specialists that are strongly associated with late-successional forests. For nesting and roosting, they require large trees and snags embedded in a stand with a complex forest structure (Blakesley et al. 2005, Gutiérrez et al. 1992, Verner et al. 1992b). In mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, California spotted owls typically nest and roost in stands with high canopy closure (≥75 percent) [Note: when citing studies, we use terminology consistent with Jennings et al. (1999), however, not all studies properly distinguish between canopy cover and closure and often use the terms interchangeably (see chapter 14 for clarification)] and an abundance of large trees (>24 in (60 cm) diameter at breast height [d.b.h.]) (Bias and Gutiérrez 1992, Gutiérrez et al. 1992, LaHaye et al. 1997, Moen and Gutiérrez 1997, Verner et al. 1992a). The California spotted owl guidelines (Verner et al. 1992b) effectively summarized much of the information about nesting and roosting habitat. Since that report, research on the California spotted owl has continued with much of the new information concentrated in five areas: population trends, barred owl ( Strix varia ) invasion, climate effects, foraging habitat, and owl response to fire.

California↗
USGS2022

RestoreNet: Collaboration to improve success of seed-based restoration on the Colorado Plateau

Dryland restoration faces challenges from heat, drought, and unpredictable rainfall, that are increasingly common and severe due to climate change. Land managers need information about successful seed-based restoration techniques and seed mixes that are not widely available to increase restoration success. Researchers from the US Geological Survey (USGS) and partner universities are working with land managers on a network of field trials called “RestoreNet”. RestoreNet tests seedbased restoration techniques and mixes across the southwestern US, including the Colorado Plateau, and shares findings and best practices with restoration practitioners.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

Editorial: From cold seeps to hydrothermal vents: Geology, chemistry, microbiology, and ecology in marine and coastal environments

This Research Topic compiles contemporary studies on cold seeps, hydrothermal vents, mud volcanoes, and related seafloor features that are associated with focused fluid emissions and the transfer of carbon, other chemical species, and sometimes heat from the geosphere to the ocean. Because these features sometimes tap fluids and gas originating kilometers below the seafloor, they provide an important window into deep processes that are otherwise inaccessible to scientists. At the shallow portion of their journey, migrating fluids nearing the seafloor contribute to a range of unique biological, physical, and chemical processes within the sediments themselves and at the sediment-water interface. Seafloor fluid emissions play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycles, ocean chemistry, and possibly even climate change. Seafloor leakage points often emit hydrocarbon gases (especially methane and CO 2 ) and are sometimes the loci for deposition of seafloor minerals that have economic value. A burgeoning area of research focuses on natural products generated at these features, seeking compounds with potential pharmaceutical or other applications. Multidisciplinary studies have become routine for characterization of seafloor fluid emission sites, attesting to the inseparability of geologic, physical, chemical, and biological processes in these settings. It is increasingly common for researchers to combine in a single research cruise: subbottom imaging and seafloor mapping; porewater and water column geochemistry and gas sampling; sediment retrieval for lithologic, biostratigraphic, and solid phase analyses; and studies of benthic and subseafloor communities at the microbial to macrofaunal scales. This multidisciplinary approach has the advantage of ensuring the spatial and temporal coincidence of surveys and samples, an important factor at highly dynamic seafloor fluid emission sites. In addition, researchers often use remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), or human-occupied vehicles (HOVs) to record video of the seafloor, compile photomosaics, collect targeted samples, and survey with high-resolution geophysical near-seafloor systems, providing a degree of detail about seafloor fluid emission sites that is unprecedented compared to most areas of the deep ocean. While rarer, long-term cabled observatories or shorter-term deployments of portable observatories are also used at some loci for seafloor fluid flux and are particularly helpful for capturing temporal variations at these dynamic features. Here we summarize the Research Topic’s contribution to multidisciplinary seafloor emission studies in the categories of cold seeps, mud volcanoes, and hydrothermal vents. Figure 1 shows the geographic distribution of the studies in this Research Topic and key features referred to in this Introduction.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2025

The value of reducing uncertainties to support the management of a high‐elevation endemic salamander

Many salamander populations are declining, and methods to determine how best to allocate limited resources to slow or reverse these declines could support land managers in their decision‐making processes. Multiple types of uncertainty may delay management decisions, including when (1) knowledge of a species' ecology is incomplete, (2) climate change effects on environmental covariates are uncertain, and (3) the efficacy of management alternatives is unknown. For management decisions, a value‐of‐information analysis can identify which uncertainties are critical to reduce in order to identify an optimal strategy from a set of possible management actions. If the same management action is optimal across the full range of uncertainties, then resources for research can be redirected toward active management. Using value‐of‐information analyses, we examine the effect of uncertainty on identifying optimal management to maximize the future expected occupancy of Plethodon shenandoah , a Federally Endangered high‐elevation endemic salamander that is threatened by climate change. Out of 11 management actions proposed by National Park Service managers, those that increase environmental moisture are expected to maximize occupancy, and we find that the selection of this action is robust to all the identified uncertainties. We show that, even in systems with multiple sources of large uncertainty, value of information analyses discriminate among investments in species management.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2022

A forested wetland at a climate-induced tipping-point: 17-year demographic evidence of widespread tree recruitment failure

Regeneration and survival of forested wetlands are affected by environmental variables related to the hydrologic regime. Climate change, specifically alterations to precipitation patterns, may have outsized effects on these forests. In Tennessee, USA, precipitation has increased by 15% since 1960. The goal of our research was to assess the evidence for whether this change in precipitation patterns resulted in shorter growing seasons and recruitment failure in common canopy trees for a forest wetland. In 2001 and 2018, the density of Quercus lyrata (overcup oak), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Quercus phellos (willow oak), and Betula nigra (river birch) seedling, sapling and adult density were mapped in an area of 2.3 ha within a seasonally flooded karst depression. Overall, the percentage of the growing season experiencing inundation was 26% greater in the deep than in shallow areas between 2001 and 2018. Saplings and small adults of all four species were restricted to shallow areas, and their abundance has declined substantially. Overcup oak and sweetgum individuals that were recruited into the adult life history stage were repelled from the deep zone. Overcup oak and sweetgum adults experienced lower mortality across the 2.3-ha study area (11% and 26%, respectively) relative to willow oak (56%) and river birch (64%) over the 17-year study. Growing-season inundation showed no relation to mortality in adult sweetgum and willow oak, a positive relation to mortality among adult river birch across size classes and among small adult overcup oak, and an inverse relation to mortality among large adult overcup oak. In shallow regions, overcup oak and sweetgum adults had greater basal area increment relative to the intermediate and deep regions of the pond. Results of hydrologic modeling for the study area, based on rainfall and temperature records covering 1855–2019, show ponding durations after 1970 considerably longer than the historical baseline, across ponding-depth classes. Our results strongly suggest that climate change is a driving factor suppressing tree regeneration since 1970 in this seasonally flooded karst depression.

Tennessee↗
USGS2012

Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies.

Aeolian Research↗