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USGS2007

Late Quaternary stratigraphy and luminescence geochronology of the northeastern Mojave Desert

The chronology of the Holocene and late Pleistocene deposits of the northeastern Mojave Desert have been largely obtained using radiocarbon ages. Our study refines and extends this framework using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to date deposits from Valjean Valley, Silurian Lake Playa, Red Pass, and California Valley. Of particular interest are eolian fine silts incorporated in ground-water discharge (GWD) deposits bracketed at 185-140 and 20-50 ka. Alluvial fan deposits proved amenable for OSL by dating both eolian sand lenses and reworked eolian sand in a matrix of gravel that occurs within the fan stratigraphy. Lacustrine sand in spits and bars also yielded acceptable OSL ages. These OSL ages fill gaps in the geochronology of desert deposits, which can provide data relevant to understanding the responses of several depositional systems to regional changes in climate. This study identifies the most promising deposits for future luminescence dating and suggests that for several regions of the Mojave Desert, sediments from previously undated landforms can be more accurately placed within correct geologic map units.

Quaternary International↗

USGS1997

Climatic controls of western U.S. glaciers at the last glacial maximum

We use a nested atmospheric modeling strategy to simulate precipitation and temperature of the western United States 18,000 years ago (18 ka). The high resolution of the nested model allows us to isolate the regional structure of summer temperature and winter precipitation that is crucial to determination of the net mass balance of late-Pleistocene mountain glaciers in this region of diverse topography and climate. Modeling results suggest that climatic controls of these glaciers varied significantly over the western U.S. Glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains existed under relatively cold July temperatures and low winter accumulation, reflecting anticyclonic, easterly wind flow off the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In contrast, glaciers that existed under relatively warmer and wetter conditions are located along the Pacific coast south of Oregon, where enhanced westerlies delivered higher precipitation than at present. Between these two groupings lie glaciers that were controlled by a mix of cold and wet conditions attributed to the convergence of cold air from the ice sheet and moisture derived from the westerlies. Sensitivity tests suggest that, for our simulated 18 ka climate, many of the glaciers exhibit a variable response to climate but were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation, particularly those glaciers in central Idaho and the Yellowstone Plateau. Our results support arguments that temperature depression generally played a larger role in lowering equilibrium line altitudes in the western U.S. during the last glacial maximum than did increased precipitation, although the magnitude of temperature depression required for steady-state mass balance varied from 8-18??C. Only the Sierra Nevada glaciers required a substantial increase in precipitation to achieve steady-state mass balance, while glaciers in the Cascade Range existed with decreased precipitation.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2012

A meeting of the waters: interdisciplinary challenges and opportunities in tidal rivers

At the interface of estuarine tides and freshwater rivers lie wetland and aquatic ecosystems, which experience dramatic effects of sea level rise. There, nontidal channels and riparian floodplains are transforming into tidal ecosystems, and tidal freshwater ecosystems are receiving increasing salinity. These river-floodplain systems have both fluvial characteristics, including meandering channels and expansive floodplain forests, and estuarine characteristics, including tides and intertidal wetlands [see Barendregt et al., 2009; Conner et al., 2007, and references therein]. Because tidal rivers lie at the disciplinary divide between fluvial and estuarine science, a knowledge gap has developed in scientists' understanding of the geomorphic and biogeochemical response of these environments to sea level rise, climate change, and anthropogenically driven variations in watershed exports.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2014

The aging of America's reservoirs: In-reservoir and downstream physical changes and habitat implications

Reservoirs are important for various purposes including flood control, water supply, power generation, and recreation. The aging of America's reservoirs and progressive loss of water storage capacity resulting from ongoing sedimentation, coupled with increasing societal needs, will cause the social, economic, environmental, and political importance of reservoirs to continually increase. The short- and medium-term (<50 years) environmental consequences of reservoir construction and operation are well known and include an altered flow regime, lost connectivity (longitudinal, floodplain), an altered sediment regime, substrate compositional change, and downstream channel degradation. In general, reservoir-related changes have had adverse consequences for the natural ecosystem. Longer term (>50 years) environmental changes as reservoirs enter “old” age are less understood. Additional research is needed to help guide the future management of aging reservoir systems and support the difficult decisions that will have to be made. Important research directions include assessment of climate change effects on aging and determination of ecosystem response to ongoing aging and various management actions that may be taken with the intent of minimizing or reversing the physical effects of aging.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2013

Landsat imagery reveals declining clarity of Maine’s lakes during 1995-2010

Water clarity is a strong indicator of regional water quality. Unlike other common water-quality metrics, such as chlorophyll a , total P, or trophic status, clarity can be accurately and efficiently estimated remotely on a regional scale. Satellite-based remote sensing is useful in regions with many lakes where traditional field-sampling techniques may be prohibitively expensive. Repeated sampling of easily accessed lakes can lead to spatially irregular, nonrandom samples of a region. Remote sensing remedies this problem. We applied a remote monitoring protocol we had previously developed for Maine lakes >8 ha based on Landsat satellite data recorded during 1995–2010 to identify spatial and temporal patterns in Maine lake clarity. We focused on the overlapping region of Landsat paths 11 and 12 to increase availability of cloud-free images in August and early September, a period of relative lake stability and seasonal poor-clarity conditions well suited for annual monitoring. We divided Maine into 3 regions (northeastern, south-central, western) based on morphometric and chemical lake features. We found a general decrease in average statewide lake clarity from 4.94 to 4.38 m during 1995–2010. Water clarity ranged from 4 to 6 m during 1995–2010, but it decreased consistently during 2005–2010. Clarity in both the northeastern and western lake regions has decreased from 5.22 m in 1995 to 4.36 and 4.21 m, respectively, in 2010, whereas lake clarity in the south-central lake region (4.50 m) has not changed since 1995. Climate change, timber harvesting, or watershed morphometry may be responsible for regional water-clarity decline. Remote sensing of regional water clarity provides a more complete spatial perspective of lake water quality than existing, interest-based sampling. However, field sampling done under existing monitoring programs can be used to calibrate accurate models designed to estimate water clarity remotely.

Maine↗

USGS2006

Freshwater and Nutrient Fluxes to Coastal Waters of Everglades National Park - A Synthesis

Freshwater in the Everglades and the Big Cypress Swamp drains south and southwest into coastal regions where it mixes with seawater to create the salinity gradients characteristic of productive estuarine and marine systems. Studies in Florida Bay have shown that over the last 100-200 years, salinity and seagrass distributions have fluctuated substantially in response to natural climatic cycles. The timing of this change coincides at least in part with the canal construction and landscape alterations in the Everglades that have altered the quantity, timing, distribution, and quality of surface water that flows south into the coastal waters. Federal and State agencies have undertaken a massive Everglades restoration project that will require changes in water management throughout the Everglades, and this will affect water flows to the coastal region. A major concern involves how changes in water flow could affect salinity and nutrient availability in coastal waters.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2021

Groundwater hydrology and chemistry of Jamestown Island, Virginia—Potential effects of tides, storm surges, and sea-level rise on archaeological, cultural, and ecological resources

As the site of the first permanent English settlement in North America in 1607, Jamestown Island, Colonial National Historical Park (COLO), Virginia, contains a rich archaeological record that extends from the Paleoindian period (15,000 to 8,000 years ago) through the 20th century. The island is located on the lower James River near the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Jamestown Island vegetation is dominated by upland forests surrounded by tidal, freshwater-to-oligohaline marshes. Along the Virginia coast, relative sea-level rise was more than 2.5 times the global average during the 20th century. Consequently, the National Park Service (NPS) has identified COLO as one of the 25 national parks most threatened by climate change. Surface waters across the island are hydraulically connected to the laterally continuous Surficial aquifer. The land-surface altitude of the island is low, with two-thirds of the island less than 5 feet (ft) above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). Consequently, sea-level rise, combined with tides and storm surges, threatens the island and its resources as surface-water and groundwater levels rise, saltwater enters the Surficial aquifer, and groundwater chemistry changes. The impact of sea-level rise on the island’s surface-water resources has been well studied, but groundwater effects have been largely ignored. Quantifying the effects of tides, storm surges, and sea-level rise on groundwater levels and chemistry is essential to developing an effective strategy for managing climate-induced changes. The first step in developing a response strategy includes a parkwide general risk assessment for archaeological sites on the island, so that sites can be prioritized for management actions. The U.S. Geological Survey and the NPS began a study in 2015 to develop a long-term groundwater-monitoring program to evaluate this risk and to develop an updated management strategy. The groundwater-monitoring program consists of 45 wells and piezometers in two individual clusters and three transects across the island in different hydrologic and chemical settings. Samples for water quality were collected from the wells and piezometers from October 2015 through September 2018 at variable time intervals. Results of the monitoring identified disparate hydrologic and chemical responses to saltwater intrusion across the island. Specific conductance (an indicator of salinity) of groundwater beneath several marshes responded differently to changes in James River salinity. Groundwater response to changes in James River specific conductance appeared to be controlled by land-surface altitude and slope, differences in lateral and vertical sediment characteristics, distance from surface waters, and the degree of surface water/groundwater connectivity between channels and the aquifer. Groundwater chemistry data from monitoring wells at Black Point, a low-altitude, upland setting, are in contrast with conditions observed in Island House observation wells, a high-altitude, upland setting. Specific conductance (less than 200 microsiemens per centimeter [μS/cm]) and pH (greater than 5.0) of groundwater beneath much of the uplands that characterize the Island House observation wells are typical of groundwater in noncarbonate sedimentary aquifers recharged by precipitation. At Black Point, specific conductance ranged from 2,490 to 15,200 μS/cm, and pH ranged from 3.1 to 6.6 standard units. At the Black Point observation wells, the most saline and dense water was at the water table rather than deeper in the aquifer, causing a density inversion that persisted throughout the study. The density inversion likely resulted from differences in permeability between the shallow clay and fine-grained sands and the deeper coarse-grained sand and gravel. Groundwater with the lowest pH was at the water table. As saline groundwater flows through organic sediment beneath the marshes, bacterial biodegradation of organic matter creates anoxic conditions. Continued biodegradation concomitantly reduces iron-oxide minerals in the sediment and sulfate in saline water. When oxygen is reintroduced into groundwater, iron and sulfur can reoxidize to form sulfuric acid, locally lowering the pH of the water. This report describes the groundwater monitoring network design, rationale for site selection, monitoring approach, and results of monitoring from October 2015 through September 2018. Maps of inundation at selected water-level altitudes are included to identify the risk to archaeological, cultural, and ecological resources. The monitoring results of the hydrology and chemistry data are interpreted, and the different hydrologic and chemical settings are described. The implications of the study results for management decisions are presented, and suggestions for improving the monitoring network are included.

Virginia↗

USGS1969

Great Salt Lake, Utah: Chemical and physical variations of the brine, 1963-1966

Great Salt Lake is a shallow, closed-basin lake in northern Utah. Its surface area and concentration of dissolved solids vary in response to both annual and long-term climatic changes. The lake gains water mainly as streamflow from mountains to the east and loses water through evaporation. In 1965, at a lake-surface altitude of 4,194 feet, the surface area was about 1,000 square miles, and the maximum measured depth was 27 feet. Studies to define the variations in chemical and physical characteristics of the brine began in 1963, and detailed sampling of the lake at 29 sites was made in October 1965 and May 1966. Data resulting from concurrent sampling of the 29 sites indicated that four types of brine coexist in the lake.

Utah↗

USGS2002

USGS leads United States effort in Mallik Well

This winter, in the extremely cold, far reaches of the upper Northwest Territory of Canada, there is an international consortium of researchers participating in a program to study methane hydrates. The researchers are currently drilling a 1200 m-deep production research well through the permafrost. It is one of three wells located in the Mackenzie Delta, on the shore of the Beaufort Sea. Two observation wells were drilled adjacent to the main production test well earlier this year. Research objectives for the program focus on two themes: (1) the assessment of the production and properties of gas hydrates, and (2) an assessment of the stability of continental gas hydrates given warming trends predicted by climate change models. Of particular interest is the physical response of the gas hydrate to depressurization and thermal production stimulation. Cores are being taken from the well, and scientists hope to retrieve at least 200 m of core, including all the gas hydrate-rich intervals. Once cored, the samples are transported 200 kilometers over ice roads to Inuvik. Nearly 60 researchers are examining the cores for everything from geophysical parameters to microbiological analyses.

Fire in the Ice: NETL Methane Hydrate Newsletter↗

USGS2009

Calibration of an estuarine sediment transport model to sediment fluxes as an intermediate step for simulation of geomorphic evolution

Modeling geomorphic evolution in estuaries is necessary to model the fate of legacy contaminants in the bed sediment and the effect of climate change, watershed alterations, sea level rise, construction projects, and restoration efforts. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport models used for this purpose typically are calibrated to water level, currents, and/or suspended-sediment concentrations. However, small errors in these tidal-timescale models can accumulate to cause major errors in geomorphic evolution, which may not be obvious. Here we present an intermediate step towards simulating decadal-timescale geomorphic change: calibration to estimated sediment fluxes (mass/time) at two cross-sections within an estuary. Accurate representation of sediment fluxes gives confidence in representation of sediment supply to and from the estuary during those periods. Several years of sediment flux data are available for the landward and seaward boundaries of Suisun Bay, California, the landward-most embayment of San Francisco Bay. Sediment flux observations suggest that episodic freshwater flows export sediment from Suisun Bay, while gravitational circulation during the dry season imports sediment from seaward sources. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS), a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, was adapted for Suisun Bay, for the purposes of hindcasting 19th and 20th century bathymetric change, and simulating geomorphic response to sea level rise and climatic variability in the 21st century. The sediment transport parameters were calibrated using the sediment flux data from 1997 (a relatively wet year) and 2004 (a relatively dry year). The remaining years of data (1998, 2002, 2003) were used for validation. The model represents the inter-annual and annual sediment flux variability, while net sediment import/export is accurately modeled for three of the five years. The use of sediment flux data for calibrating an estuarine geomorphic model guarantees that modeled geomorphic evolution will not exceed the actual supply of sediment from the watershed and seaward sources during the calibration period. Decadal trends in sediment supply (and therefore fluxes) can accumulate to alter decadal geomorphic change. Therefore, simulations of future geomorphic evolution are bolstered by this intermediate calibration step.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2009

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Changes in diameter growth of Taxodium distichum in response to flow alterations in the Savannah River

Efforts to maximize or restore ecological function on floodplains impacted by dam construction have increasingly focused on river flow management. Few studies, however, consider floodplain hydrogeomorphic position and annual climatic variation in dam impact assessment. The Savannah River, a large river ecosystem in the Southeastern United States, was impounded in the 1950's. Our study objectives were: (1) Characterize hydrology in floodplain areas containing Taxodium distichum , and determine how it has been affected by dam operations; (2) Identify basal area increment (BAI) response of Taxodium to annual flooding and climate (dry, average, wet) conditions; (3) Assess BAI response to dam-induced hydrologic changes. Levee and backswamp sites were significantly drier in the post-dam era, and trees at these sites showed a significant post-dam increase in BAI. Low-elevation river sites did not show significant hydrologic differences between pre- and post-dam eras, but BAI was significantly higher in dry years and significantly less sensitive to hydroperiod in the post-dam era. All trees demonstrated a significant quadratic BAI vs. hydroperiod relationship. This study demonstrates that annual productivity of Taxodium trees can be reduced by either drought or flood stress. It also suggests that climate and hydrogeomorphic location mediate dam impacts and productivity-flooding relationships in Taxodium .

Georgia↗

USGS2015

Long-term plant responses to climate are moderated by biophysical attributes in a North American desert

Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions throughout the world, including the southwestern U.S., are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. To better understand these detrimental effects, we formulate a conceptual model of dryland ecosystem vulnerability to climate change that integrates hypotheses on how plant species will respond to increases in temperature and drought, including how plant responses to climate are modified by landscape, soil, and plant attributes that are integral to water availability and use. We test the model through a synthesis of fifty years of repeat measurements of perennial plant species cover in large permanent plots across the Mojave Desert, one of the most water-limited ecosystems in North America. Plant species ranged in their sensitivity to precipitation in different seasons, capacity to increase in cover with high precipitation, and resistance to decrease in cover with low precipitation. Our model successfully explains how plant responses to climate are modified by biophysical attributes in the Mojave Desert. For example, deep-rooted plants were not as vulnerable to drought on soils that allowed for deep water percolation, whereas shallow-rooted plants were better buffered from drought on soils that promoted water retention near the surface. Synthesis. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding climate-vegetation relationships in the context of biophysical attributes that influence water availability and provide an important forecast of climate-change effects, including plant mortality and land degradation in dryland regions throughout the world.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2016

Climate change and the Delta

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science↗

USGS2017

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr −1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species ( n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Wildfire, extreme precipitation and debris flows, oh my! Channel response to compounding disturbances in a mountain stream in the Upper Colorado Basin, USA

Compounding changes in climate and human activities stand to increase sediment input to rivers in many landscapes, including via discrete perturbations such as post-fire debris flows. Because sediment supply is a dominant control on river morphology, understanding mountain river responses to sediment regime perturbations is critical to predicting and addressing downstream effects to infrastructure, water security and aquatic habitat. A growing body of literature explores the causes, likelihood, size and composition of post-fire debris flows, but the channel response to these disturbances remains poorly studied. This study used repeat field surveys, time-lapse photographs and pre- and post-disturbance remote sensing datasets to document and analyse space- and time-varying channel response to post-fire debris flows along a steep mountain stream in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA. Specifically, we evaluated channel morphology and bed composition changes, correlations between channel changes and valley and channel attributes, and the relative importance of spring snowmelt versus summer monsoon events. Several cross-sectional channel change types were observed from lidar a month after post-fire debris-flow events, including channelized and braided incision into deposits, incision into the pre-fire channel bed, bank erosion and no change. Channel changes were most correlated with pre-fire channel width, valley width and unit stream power, and these relationships could be tested in other burned locations to evaluate their transferability. Repeat channel surveys before and after snowmelt indicate rapid recovery and channel narrowing following major sediment disturbances, although sediment deposits remained in the channel margins. Together, these results highlight the importance of field and remote sensing-based channel surveys to improve understanding of, and potential to predict, mountain channel response to compounding climate disturbances.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

USGS2013

Regional signatures of plant response to drought and elevated temperature across a desert ecosystem

The performance of many desert plant species in North America may decline with the warmer and drier conditions predicted by climate change models, thereby accelerating land degradation and reducing ecosystem productivity. We paired repeat measurements of plant canopy cover with climate at multiple sites across the Chihuahuan Desert over the last century to determine which plant species and functional types may be the most sensitive to climate change. We found that the dominant perennial grass, Bouteloua eriopoda, and species richness had nonlinear responses to summer precipitation, decreasing more in dry summers than increasing with wet summers. Dominant shrub species responded differently to the seasonality of precipitation and drought, but winter precipitation best explained changes in the cover of woody vegetation in upland grasslands and may contribute to woody-plant encroachment that is widespread throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Temperature explained additional variability of changes in cover of dominant and subdominant plant species. Using a novel empirically based approach we identified ‘‘climate pivot points’’ that were indicative of shifts from increasing to decreasing plant cover over a range of climatic conditions. Reductions in cover of annual and several perennial plant species, in addition to declines in species richness below the long-term summer precipitation mean across plant communities, indicate a decrease in the productivity for all but the most drought-tolerant perennial grasses and shrubs in the Chihuahuan Desert. Overall, our regional synthesis of long-term data provides a robust foundation for forecasting future shifts in the composition and structure of plant assemblages in the largest North American warm desert.

Ecology↗