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An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular↗

2008 Joint United States-Canadian program to explore the limits of the Extended Continental Shelf aboard the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Healy --Cruise HLY0806

In September 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), conducted bathymetric and geophysical surveys in the Arctic Beaufort Sea aboard the U.S. Coast Guard cutter USCGC Healy . The principal objective of this mission to the high Arctic was to acquire data in support of delineation of the outer limits of the U.S. and Canadian Extended Continental Shelf (ECS) in the Arctic Ocean in accordance with the provisions of Article 76 of the Law of the Sea Convention. The Healy was accompanied by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St- Laurent . The science parties on the two vessels consisted principally of staff from the USGS ( Healy ), and the GSC and the Canadian Hydrographic Service ( Louis ). The crew included marine mammal and Native-community observers, ice observers, and biologists conducting research of opportunity in the Arctic Ocean. The joint survey proved an unqualified success. The Healy collected 5,528 km of swath (multibeam) bathymetry (38,806 km 2 ) and CHIRP subbottom profile data, with accompanying marine gravity measurements. The Louis acquired 2,817 km of multichannel seismic (airgun) deep-penetration reflection-profile data along 12 continuous lines, as well as 35 sonobuoy refraction stations and accompanying single-beam bathymetry. The coordinated efforts of the two vessels resulted in seismic-reflection profile data of much higher quality and continuity than if the data had been acquired with a single vessel alone. Equipment failure rate of the seismic equipment gear aboard the Louis was greatly improved with the advantage of having a leading icebreaker. When ice conditions proved too severe to deploy the seismic system, the Louis led the Healy , resulting in much improved quality of the swath bathymetry and CHIRP sub-bottom data in comparison with data collected by the Healy in the lead or working alone. Ancillary science objectives, including ice observations, deployment of ice-monitoring buoys and water-column sampling for biologic (phytoplankton) studies, were also successfully accomplished.

Open-File Report↗

Thermokarst and thaw-related landscape dynamics -- an annotated bibliography with an emphasis on potential effects on habitat and wildlife

Permafrost has warmed throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere since the 1980s, with colder permafrost sites warming more rapidly (Romanovsky and others, 2010; Smith and others, 2010). Warming of the near-surface permafrost may lead to widespread terrain instability in ice-rich permafrost in the Arctic and the Subarctic, and may result in thermokarst development and other thaw-related landscape features (Jorgenson and others, 2006; Gooseff and others, 2009). Thermokarst and other thaw-related landscape features result from varying modes and scales of permafrost thaw, subsidence, and removal of material. An increase in active-layer depth, water accumulation on the soil surface, permafrost degradation and associated retreat of the permafrost table, and changes to lake shores and coastal bluffs act and interact to create thermokarst and other thaw-related landscape features (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). There is increasing interest in the spatial and temporal dynamics of thermokarst and other thaw-related features from diverse disciplines including landscape ecology, hydrology, engineering, and biogeochemistry. Therefore, there is a need to synthesize and disseminate knowledge on the current state of near-surface permafrost terrain. The term "thermokarst" originated in the Russian literature, and its scientific use has varied substantially over time (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). The modern definition of thermokarst refers to the process by which characteristic landforms result from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ice (van Everdingen, 1998), or, more specifically, the thawing of ice-rich permafrost and (or) melting of massive ice that result in consolidation and deformation of the soil surface and formation of specific forms of relief (Shur, 1988). Jorgenson (2013) identifies 23 distinct thermokarst and other thaw-related features in the Arctic, Subarctic, and Antarctic based primarily on differences in terrain condition, ground-ice volume, and heat and mass transfer processes. Typical Arctic thermokarst landforms include thermokarst lakes, collapsed pingos, sinkholes, and pits. Thermokarst is differentiated from thermal erosion, which refers to the erosion of the land surface by thermal and mechanical processes (Mackay, 1970; van Everdingen, 1998). Typical thermal erosional features include thermo-erosional gullies. Thermal abrasion is further differentiated from thermokarst and thermal erosion by association with the reworking of ocean, river, and lake bluffs (Are, 1988). Typical thermo-abrasion features include erosional niches at the base of bluffs. Thermal denudation is another distinct term that refers to the effect of incoming solar energy on the thaw of frozen slopes and permafrost bodies that subsequently become transported downhill by gravity (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). Active layer detachment slides and thaw slumps are typical thermal denudation features. Shur and Osterkamp (2007) noted that these various transport processes may occur together with thermokarst or in instances that would not be considered thermokarst. This compilation of references regarding thermokarst and other thaw-related features is focused on the Arctic and the Subarctic. References were drawn from North America as well as Siberia. English-language literature mostly was targeted, with 167 references annotated in version 1.0; however, an additional 28 Russian-language references were taken from Shur and Osterkamp (2007) and are provided at the end of this document. This compilation may be missing key references and inevitably will become outdated soon after publication. We hope that this document, version 1.0, will serve as the foundation for a comprehensive compilation of thermokarst and permafrost-terrain stability references, and that it will be updated continually over the coming years.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions substantively lowered the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome, while an elevated marine prey base was slightly less influential in lowering the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome. Stressors associated with in situ human activities exerted considerably less influence on population outcomes. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted inmodest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and point-source pollution had negligible effects on polar bear outcomes, but that could be attributed to uncertainties in the ecological relevance of those specific stressors. Our findings suggest adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat become more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthens beyond 4 months, which could occur in portions of the Arctic by the middle of this century under the unabated pathway. The long-term persistence of polar bears may be achieved through ameliorating the loss of sea ice habitat, which will likely require stabilizing CO 2 emissions at or below the ceiling represented by RCP 4.5. Management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of polar bear populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects of persistence, pending GHG mitigation.

Open-File Report↗

Time-slice maps showing age, distribution, and style of deformation in Alaska north of 60° N.

The structural architecture of Alaska is the product of a complex history of tectonism that occurred along the Cordilleran and Arctic margins of North America through interactions with ancient and modern ocean plates and with continental elements derived from Laurentia, Siberia, and Baltica. To unravel the tectonic history of Alaska, we constructed maps showing the age, distribution, structural style, and kinematics of contractional and penetrative extensional deformation in Alaska north of latitude 60° N. at a scale of 1:5,000,000. These maps use the Geologic Map of the Arctic (Harrison and others, 2011) as a base map and follow the guidelines in the Tectonic Map of the Arctic project (Petrov and others, 2013) for construction, including use of the International Commission on Stratigraphy time scale (Cohen and others, 2013) divided into 20 time intervals. We find evidence for deformation in 14 of the 20 time intervals and present maps showing the known or probable extent of deformation for each time interval. Maps and descriptions of deformational style, age constraints, kinematics, and information sources for each deformational episode are discussed in the text and are reported in tabular form. This report also contains maps showing the lithologies and structural geology of Alaska, a terrane map, and the distribution of tectonically important units including post-tectonic sedimentary basins, accretionary complexes, ophiolites, metamorphic rocks. These new maps show that most deformational belts in Alaska are relatively young features, having developed during the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. The oldest episode of deformation recognized anywhere in Alaska is found in the basement of the Farewell terrane (~1.75 Ga). Paleozoic and early Mesozoic deformational events, including Devonian deformation in the Arctic Alaska terrane, Pennsylvanian deformation in the Alexander terrane, Permian deformation in the Yukon Composite (Klondike orogeny) and Farewell terranes (Browns Fork orogeny), Early and Late Jurassic deformation in the Peninsular-Wrangellia terranes, and Early Cretaceous deformation in northern Alaska (early Brookian orogeny) show that within-terrane amalgamation events occurred prior to assembly of Alaska. Widespread episodes of deformation in the Late Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, in contrast, affected multiple terranes, indicating they occurred during or following the time of assembly of most of Alaska. The primary deformational event in northern Alaska was the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous (early) Brookian orogeny, which affected most terranes north and west of the early Cenozoic Tintina, Victoria Creek, Kaltag, and Poorman dextral-slip faults in central Alaska. In southern Alaska, formation of the southern Alaska accretionary complex (Chugach, Prince William, Yakutat terranes) and associated magmatism in the Peninsular-Wrangellia terrane began near the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and continued episodically throughout the remainder of the Mesozoic and the Cenozoic. The collision of these terranes with the Farewell and Yukon Composite terranes in central Alaska is recorded by contractional deformation that emanated from the intervening basins in the Late Cretaceous. The boundary between northern and central Alaska is constrained to late Early Cretaceous but is enigmatic and not obviously marked by contractional deformation. Early Cenozoic shortening and transpressional deformation is the most widespread event recorded in Alaska and produced the widespread late Brookian orogenic event in northern Alaska. Middle and late Cenozoic shortening and transpression is significant in southern Alaska inboard of the underthrusting Yakutat terrane at the Pacific margin subduction zone as well as in northeastern Alaska.

Alaska↗

National assessment of shoreline change — Historical shoreline change along the north coast of Alaska, Icy Cape to Cape Prince of Wales

Beach erosion is a persistent problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. Along the Arctic coast of Alaska, coastal erosion is widespread and threatens communities, defense and energy-related infrastructure, and coastal habitat. As coastal populations continue to expand and infrastructure and habitat are increasingly threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. Shoreline change was evaluated by comparing three to four historical shoreline positions derived from 1950s-era topographic surveys and black and white aerial photography, 1980s-era color-infrared Alaska High-Altitude Aerial Photography, 2003 natural color aerial photography, and 2010s-era natural color aerial photography. Long-term (1950s–2010s) and short-term (1980s–2010s) shoreline change rates were calculated using linear-regression and end-point methods, respectively, at transects spaced approximately every 50 meters along both the mainland and barrier island coasts. Shoreline change rates calculated on more than 24,000 individual transects indicate that between 1948 and 2016 the northern coast of Alaska between Icy Cape and Cape Prince of Wales was slightly erosional, with 68 percent of the total transects showing shoreline retreat over the long term and 63 percent over the short term. However, only 9 percent of the total transects showed shoreline retreat greater than 1 meter per year (m/yr) over the long and short term, respectively. Mean rates of shoreline change of −0.2±0.1 and −0.2±0.3 m/yr, were calculated for the long and short term, respectively. Many rates measured were near the limit of our shoreline change uncertainty estimates. Erosion and accretion rates on individual transects ranged from −8.3 to +9.6 m/yr over the long term and −16.0 to +20.0 m/yr over the short-term analysis periods. The highest rates of erosion and accretion were associated with the formation and migration of inlets along barrier island coasts. The highest erosional rates of change were measured in the southern part of the study area between Sullivan Lake and Cape Prince of Wales. The highest accretional rates of change were measured in the northern part of the study area on the open-ocean coast of barrier islands fronting Kasegaluk Lagoon. Open-ocean exposed shorelines compose 85 percent of all transects and 70 percent were erosional over the long term. Sheltered mainland-lagoon shorelines compose 15 percent of all transects in the study area and 58 percent were erosional over the long term. Although mean shoreline change rates were quite low along all coasts, exposed shorelines retreated at twice the rate (−0.2±0.1 m/yr) of sheltered shorelines (−0.1±0.1 m/yr). Barrier shoreline transects (includes barrier islands, spits, and beaches) compose 49 percent of the total transects and 56 percent of all exposed shoreline transects. Mean shoreline change rates on exposed barrier shorelines were only slightly greater than exposed mainland shorelines (−0.3±0.1 and −0.2±0.1 m/yr, respectively). Mean shoreline change rates on sheltered barrier shorelines were similar to sheltered mainland shorelines (−0.1±0.3 m/yr). In contrast to the majority of the Nation’s shorelines, for all but three months of the year (July–September), the north coast of Alaska has historically been protected by landfast sea ice from processes such as waves, winds, and currents that typically drive coastal change on beaches in more temperate regions of the world. Projected and observed increases in periods of sea-ice-free conditions, as sea ice melts earlier and forms later in the year, particularly in the autumn, when large storms are more common in the Arctic, suggest that Arctic coasts will be more vulnerable to storm surge and wave energy, potentially resulting in accelerated shoreline erosion and terrestrial habitat loss in the future. Increases in air and sea water temperatures may also increase erosion of the ice-rich, coastal permafrost bluffs present along much of Alaska’s Arctic coast. More frequent shoreline change data collection and analysis in this rapidly changing environment should be considered in order to evaluate shoreline change trends in the future.

Alaska↗

Geology and physiography of the continental margin north of Alaska and implications for the origin of the Canada Basin

The continental margin north of Alaska is of Atlantic type. It began to form probably in Early Jurassic time but possibly in middle Early Cretaceous time, when the oceanic Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean is thought to have opened by rifting about a pole of rotation near the Mackenzie Delta. Offsets of the rift along two fracture zones are thought to have divided the Alaskan margin into three sectors of contrasting structure and stratigraphy. In the Barter Island sector on the east and the Chukchi sector on the west the rift was closer to the present northern Alaska mainland than in the Barrow sector, which lies between them. In the Barter Island and Chukchi sectors the continental shelf is underlain by prisms of clastic sedimentary rocks that are inferred to include thick sections of Jurassic and Neocomian (lower Lower Cretaceous) strata of southern provenance. In the intervening Barrow sector the shelf is underlain by relatively thin sections of Jurassic and Neocomian strata derived from northern sources that now lie beneath the outer continental shelf. The rifted continental margin is overlain by a prograded prism of Albian (upper Lower Cretaceous) to Tertiary clastic sedimentary rocks that comprises the continental terrace of the western Beaufort and northern Chukchi Seas. On the south the prism is bounded by Barrow arch, which is a hingeline between the northward-tilted basement surface beneath the continental shelf of the western Beaufort Sea and the southward-tilted Arctic Platform of northern Alaska. The Arctic platform is overlain by shelf clastic and carbonate strata of Mississippian to Cretaceous age, and by Jurassic and Cretaceous clastic strata of the Colville foredeep. Both the Arctic platform and Colville foredeep sequences extend from northern Alaska beneath the northern Chukchi Sea. At Herald fault zone in the central Chukchi Sea they are overthrust by more strongly deformed Cretaceous to Paleozoic sedimentary rocks of Herald arch, which trends northwest from Cape Lisburne. Hope basin, an extensional intracontinental sedimentary basin of Tertiary age, underlies the Chukchi Sea south of Herald arch.

Open-File Report↗

The geography and geology of Alaska; a summary of existing knowledge, with a section on climate, and a topographic map and description thereof

Alaska, the largest outlying possession of the United States, is that great land mass forming the northwestern extremity of the North American continent, whose western point is within 60 miles of the Asiatic coast (PI. II). About one-quarter of this area lies within the Arctic Circle, and from the standpoint of geographic position must be regarded as an arctic province; but the southern seaboard, exposed to the warm winds and waters of the Pacific, gives to the entire southern portion of the territory" a comparatively warm climate. It is not generally realized that the range of climate in Alaska is greater than that between Florida and Maine. At the southernmost point of the Pacific coast the mean annual temperature is not far from that of the city of Washington, the winters being warmer and characterized by less snowfall; the Yukon Valley on the other hand has a winter climate similar to that of northern Montana and Dakota; while in the extreme northern part of the territory the meteorologic conditions are invariably arctic. Though as yet only sparsely settled, Alaska's vast area and great resources make it one of the most important possessions of the United States and promise its rapid development. During the years 1890 to 1900 the population increased from 32,052* to 63,592. The mineral output, which in 1890 was valued at less than $800,000, exceeded $9,000,000 in 1904, and the fisheries show a corresponding growth. This rapid development has attracted public attention and led to urgent demand for explorations, surveys, and other investigations. So actively has this work been pushed, both by public and private enterprise, that exact knowledge of the geography, geology, and mineral resources of the interior has made greater strides within the last eight years than during the preceding thirty-one years since the acquisition of Alaska. The facts regarding the geography and geology, scattered as they are through the many books and reports of this period, are not always readily accessible, and the time seems ripe to present them in a summarized form. The topography of Alaska is varied and complex (see PI. I), and it is not easy to present briefly even the salient features. The limited number of pages here devoted to the subject precludes the possibility of detailed treatment, even if the facts were available. Much of the description has been taken from the results attained by other investigators, the writer being personally familiar with only a part of this large province. A list of the publications consulted is appended. The larger geographic features of Alaska are now fairly well known, though the detailed surveys which are demanded by the development of many localities have hardly been begun. Preliminary surveys have been completed of all but three 8 of the larger rivers. The most important mountain ranges have been at least outlined (fig. 3). Only three large areas remain almost entirely unmapped: One in southwestern Alaska, between Cook Inlet and the lower Kuskokwim, and the others in northern Alaska, embracing the Arctic watershed east and west of the Colville River. Nearly all the surveys of the interior, however, have been of a preliminary and exploratory character, and to meet the requirements of exact geography must be followed by more detailed mensuration. Though the coast line has been fairly well known for more than half a century, knowledge of the interior has been gained chiefly within the last two decades. This has not yet found its way into text-books and has too often been entirely ignored by cartographers. If facts are presented which may seem elementary, it is because even well-informed people have been known to harbor misconceptions in regard to the orographic features, climate, and general character of Alaska. Those who read of the perils and privations of winter travel and explorations are apt to picture a region of ice and snow; others, again, who have personal knowledge of the tourist route of southeastern Alaska, regard the whole district as one of rugged mountains and glaciers. In point of fact, glaciers are now nearly limited to the ranges bordering the Pacific and to the two slopes of the Alaska range; and even during the greatest development of glaciers but a small portion of Alaska was under ice (see map, PI. XXII). As a treatise on geography would hardly be complete without some discussion of the climate, meteorologic data have been compiled by Mr. Cleveland Abbe, jr., but the discussion of this does not pretend to be more than a cursory treatment of the subject. The scope of the paper seems to require also a brief summary of the development of geographic knowledge of Alaska. This subject, with its many ramifications, is of fascinating interest and offers a magnificent field for the trained historian. If the accompanying sketch of discovery and exploration awakens any measure of popular interest the writer will feel amply rewarded for having attacked a theme which hardly falls within the scope of his investigations. When this compilation was begun it was intended to be chiefly a description of the topography of Alaska, as illustrated by the accompanying map (PI. XXXIV, in pocket), which was compiled under the direction of the late R. U. Goode. In the course of the work there accumulated much geologic as well as geographic material which seemed worthy of inclusion in the report. As no comprehensive statement of the geology of Alaska has been made since the modern epoch of investigation was begun, an attempt will be made to give a summary of all results achieved. Since the writer has obtained much of his knowledge of the facts from the work of others, he disclaims any pretense of making an entirely original contribution to geologic science. He feels, however, that a personal familiarity with a considerable part of the province, gained during seven consecutive seasons of field work, will justify Mm in presenting conclusions which may in some cases be at variance with those in the reports on which he must draw for his facts. Throughout this report attempt will be made to credit borrowed material to the source from which it is drawn. Where such matter has been obtained entirely from published reports there is no difficulty in so doing; but as regards investigators of the Geological Survey, with whom the writer has collaborated both in field and in office, the case is somewhat different, for it is not always possible to know whether this or that theory originated with the writer or with one of his colleagues. It will, then, perhaps suffice to state that this report could not have been prepared without the explorations and researches of the geologists, F. C. Schrader, Walter C. Mendenhall, Arthur J. Collier, J. E. Spurr, and Arthur C. Spencer; and the surveys of the topographers, T. G. Gerdine, D. C. Witherspoon, D. L. Reaburn, W. J. Peters, and E. C. Barnard. Each of these men, in the course of from two to six years of field work, has made important contributions to the knowledge of the geography and geology of Alaska, and not all of these results have yet been put in print. In the last season (1903) L. M. Prindle, C. W. Wright, Arthur Hollick, G. C. Martin, F. L. Hess, and Fred H. Moffit have carried on geologic work in Alaska, and the writer has made use of their work now in course of publication. He has also been fortunate in having access to the manuscript reports of Walter C. Mendenhall and F. C. Schrader on the Copper River basin, to which references will be made. The matter here presented should be credited in a measure to all of these investigators, but for many of the theories advanced the writer alone is responsible. As this manuscript goes to press there has been opportunity to incorporate some of the results of the field work of 1904. As far as possible these have been embodied in the text, but in some instances it has been found advisable to add them only as footnotes. During the past summer F. E. and C. W. Wright extended the geologic reconnaissance in southeastern Alaska. In southwestern Alaska G. C. Martin and T. W. Stanton have determined the general Mesozoic section, while F. H. Moffit has made a reconnaissance of the northern part of the Kenai Peninsula. A. J. Collier has mapped the geology of the Cape Lisburne region, and L. M. Prindle and F. L. Hess have made contributions to the knowledge of the metamorphic terranes of the Yukon-Tanana district. It is the writer's purpose to describe in nontechnical language the larger geographic features and discuss their relation as far as the data available will permit. In the treatment of the geology, however, less effort will be made to make the matter acceptable to the lay reader. It is hoped, however, that a brief summary of the salient features of the geologic history' may be not without interest to the general public. If this paper serves in some measure to dispel the popular fallacies regarding Alaska and to disseminate more accurate knowledge of its geographic and geologic features, the purpose of its publication will be accomplished.

Alaska↗

Water-Quality Conditions of Chester Creek, Anchorage, Alaska, 1998-2001

Between October 1998 and September 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program evaluated the water-quality conditions of Chester Creek, a stream draining forest and urban settings in Anchorage, Alaska. Data collection included water, streambed sediments, lakebed sediments, and aquatic organisms samples from urban sites along the stream. Urban land use ranged from less than 1 percent of the basin above the furthest upstream site to 46 percent above the most downstream site. Findings suggest that water quality of Chester Creek declines in the downstream direction and as urbanization in the watershed increases. Water samples were collected monthly and during storms at a site near the stream's mouth (Chester Creek at Arctic Boulevard) and analyzed for major ions and nutrients. Water samples collected during water year 1999 were analyzed for selected pesticides and volatile organic compounds. Concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria were determined monthly during calendar year 2000. During winter, spring, and summer, four water samples were collected at a site upstream of urban development (South Branch of South Fork Chester Creek at Tank Trail) and five from an intermediate site (South Branch of South Fork Chester Creek at Boniface Parkway). Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, sodium, chloride, and sulfate in water increased in the downstream direction. Nitrate concentrations were similar at the three sites and all were less than the drinking-water standard. About one-quarter of the samples from the Arctic Boulevard site had concentrations of phosphorus that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guideline for preventing nuisance plant growth. Water samples collected at the Arctic Boulevard site contained concentrations of the insecticide carbaryl that exceeded the guideline for protecting aquatic life. Every water sample revealed a low concentration of volatile organic compounds, including benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethylene, methyl tert-butyl ether, and chloroform. No water samples contained volatile organic compounds concentrations that exceeded any USEPA drinking-water standard or guideline. Fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations in water from the Arctic Boulevard site commonly exceeded Federal and State guidelines for water-contact recreation. Concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in streambed sediments increased in the downstream direction. Some concentrations of arsenic, chromium, lead, and zinc in sediments were at levels that can adversely affect aquatic organisms. Analysis of sediment chemistry in successive lakebed-sediment layers from Westchester Lagoon near the stream's mouth provided a record of water-quality trends since about 1970. Concentrations of lead have decreased from peak levels in the mid-1970s, most likely because of removing lead from gasoline and lower lead content in other products. However, concen-trations in recently-deposited lakebed sediments are still about 10 times greater than measured in streambed sediments at the upstream Tank Trail site. Zinc concentrations in lakebed sediments also increased in the early 1970s to levels that exceeded guidelines to protect aquatic life and have remained at elevated but variable levels. Pyrene, benz[a]anthracene, and phenanthrene in lakebed sediments also have varied in concentrations and have exceeded protection guidelines for aquatic life since the 1970s. Concentrations of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), or their by-products generally were highest in lakebed sediments deposited in the 1970s. More recent sediments have concentrations that vary widely and do not show distinct temporal trends. Tissue samples of whole slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), a non-migratory species of fish, showed con-centrations of trace elements and organic contaminants. Of the constituents analyzed, only selenium concentra-tions showed levels of potential concern for

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Sources, distributions and dynamics of dissolved organic matter in the Canada and Makarov Basins

A comprehensive survey of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) was conducted in the Canada and Makarov Basins and adjacent seas during 2010–2012 to investigate the dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the Arctic Ocean. Sources and distributions of DOM in polar surface waters were very heterogeneous and closely linked to hydrological conditions. Canada Basin surface waters had relatively low DOC concentrations (69 ± 6 μmol L −1 ), CDOM absorption ( a 325 : 0.32 ± 0.07 m −1 ) and CDOM-derived lignin phenols (3 ± 0.4 nmol L −1 ), and high spectral slope values ( S 275–295 : 31.7 ± 2.3 μm −1 ), indicating minor terrigenous inputs and evidence of photochemical alteration in the Beaufort Gyre. By contrast, surface waters of the Makarov Basin had elevated DOC (108 ± 9 μmol L −1 ) and lignin phenol concentrations (15 ± 3 nmol L −1 ), high a 325 values (1.36 ± 0.18 m −1 ), and low S 275–295 values (22.8 ± 0.8 μm −1 ), indicating pronounced Siberian river inputs associated with the Transpolar Drift and minor photochemical alteration. Observations near the Mendeleev Plain suggested limited interactions of the Transpolar Drift with Canada Basin waters, a scenario favoring export of Arctic DOM to the North Atlantic. The influence of sea-ice melt on DOM was region-dependent, resulting in an increase (Beaufort Sea), a decrease (Bering-Chukchi Seas), and negligible change (deep basins) in surface DOC concentrations and a 325 values. Halocline structures differed between basins, but the Canada Basin upper halocline and Makarov Basin halocline were comparable in their average DOC (65–70 μmol L −1 ) and lignin phenol concentrations (3–4 nmol L −1 ) and S 275–295 values (22.9–23.7 μm −1 ). Deep-water DOC concentrations decreased by 6–8 μmol L −1 with increasing depth, water mass age, nutrient concentrations, and apparent oxygen utilization. Maximal estimates of DOC degradation rates (0.036–0.039 μmol L −1 yr −1 ) in the deep Arctic were lower than those in other ocean basins, possibly due to low water temperatures. DOC concentrations in bottom waters (>2500 m; 46 ± 2 μmol L −1 ) of the Canada and Makarov Basins were slightly lower than those reported for deep waters of the Eurasian Basin and Nordic Seas. Elevated a 325 values (by 10–20%) were observed near the seafloor, indicating biological activity in Arctic basin sediments.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Post-glacial flooding of the Bering Land Bridge dated to 11 cal ka BP based on new geophysical and sediment records

The Bering Strait connects the Arctic and Pacific oceans and separates the North American and Asian landmasses. The presently shallow ( ∼ 53 m) strait was exposed during the sea level lowstand of the last glacial period, which permitted human migration across a land bridge today referred to as the Bering Land Bridge. Proxy studies (stable isotope composition of foraminifera, whale migration into the Arctic Ocean, mollusc and insect fossils and paleobotanical data) have suggested a range of ages for the Bering Strait reopening, mainly falling within the Younger Dryas stadial (12.9–11.7 cal ka BP). Here we provide new information on the deglacial and post-glacial evolution of the Arctic–Pacific connection through the Bering Strait based on analyses of geological and geophysical data from Herald Canyon, located north of the Bering Strait on the Chukchi Sea shelf region in the western Arctic Ocean. Our results suggest an initial opening at about 11 cal ka BP in the earliest Holocene, which is later than in several previous studies. Our key evidence is based on a well-dated core from Herald Canyon, in which a shift from a near-shore environment to a Pacific-influenced open marine setting at around 11 cal ka BP is observed. The shift corresponds to meltwater pulse 1b (MWP1b) and is interpreted to signify relatively rapid breaching of the Bering Strait and the submergence of the large Bering Land Bridge. Although the precise rates of sea level rise cannot be quantified, our new results suggest that the late deglacial sea level rise was rapid and occurred after the end of the Younger Dryas stadial.

Climate of the Past↗

Evaluating snow depth measurements from ground-penetrating radar and airborne lidar in boreal forest and tundra environments during the NASA SnowEx 2023 campaign

Snow is a vital component of high-latitude terrestrial systems, but environmental factors (e.g., permafrost) and complex vegetation challenge the accurate measurement of key snowpack properties. We evaluated local-scale ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and large-scale airborne lidar retrievals of snow depth collected during the NASA SnowEx 2023 campaign in tundra and boreal forest environments in Alaska along 44 short (3–12 m) transects. Compared to in situ observations, we identified modest biases for GPR snow depths (bias <0.03 m in tundra, +0.06 m in boreal forests) and larger biases for lidar snow depths in the boreal forests (–0.16 m). At the Upper Kuparuk-Toolik tundra site, lidar snow depths exhibited a small bias (–0.02 m), whereas the bias was much larger at the Arctic Coastal Plain tundra site (+0.19 m). For most sites, biases were primarily related to sub-snow vegetation, tussocks, and seasonally dynamic ground. However, we identified vertical alignment issues with the Arctic Coastal Plain lidar snow depth dataset that likely contributed to the higher bias. The complex ground surface and sub-snow vegetation in these environments present a challenge to established snow depth measurement methods, which needs to be considered when evaluating novel remote sensing approaches.

Alaska↗

Methods

Detecting declines in population size is one of the highest priorities of the shorebird initiatives in Canada and the United States. The quantitative goal is 80% power to detect a 50% decline, occurring during no more than 20 years, with a significance level of 0.15, using a two-tailed test, and incorporating effects of potential bias into the estimator. The Arctic PRISM program was designed to achieve this goal for arctic-nesting shorebird populations. The survey methods are an application of double sampling. Rapid surveys were made on a large number of plots selected from throughout arctic Alaska and Canada using stratified random sampling. Intensive surveys were made on a subsample of the plots to obtain detection rates, which were used to calibrate results from rapidly surveyed plots. Surveys will be made of the entire arctic region, each lasting several years and producing an estimate of average population size during the survey period. Results from two or more survey periods will be used to estimate change, or trend, in population size.

Book chapter↗

Use of large-scale, multi-species surveys to monitor gyrfalcon and ptarmigan populations

We evaluated the ability of three large-scale, multi-species surveys in the Arctic to provide information on abundance and habitat relationships of Gyrfalcons ( Falco rusticolus ) and ptarmigan. The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) has surveyed birds widely across the arctic regions of Canada and Alaska since 2001. The Arctic Coastal Plain survey has collected abundance information on the North Slope of Alaska using fixed-wing aircraft since 1992. The Northwest Territories-Nunavut Bird Checklist has collected presence-absence information from little-known locations in northern Canada since 1995. All three surveys provide extensive information on Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) and Rock Ptarmigan (L. muta). For example, they show that ptarmigan are most abundant in western Alaska, next most abundant in northern Alaska and northwest Canada, and least abundant in the Canadian Archipelago. PRISM surveys were less successful in detecting Gyrfalcons, and the Arctic Coastal Plain Survey is largely outside the Gyrfalcon's breeding range. The Checklist Survey, however, reflects the expansive Gyrfalcon range in Canada. We suggest that collaboration by Gyrfalcon and ptarmigan biologists with the organizers of large scale surveys like the ones we investigated provides an opportunity for obtaining useful information on these species and their environment across large areas.

Alaska, Northern Canada↗

Circumpolar biodiversity monitoring program (CBMP): Coastal expert workshop meeting report

The Coastal Expert Workshop, which took place in Ottawa, Canada from March 1 to 3, 2016, initiated the development of the Arctic Coastal Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (Coastal Plan). Meeting participants, including northern residents, representatives from industry, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academia, and government regulators and agencies from across the circumpolar Arctic, discussed current biodiversity monitoring efforts, key issues facing biodiversity in Arctic coastal areas, and collectively identified monitoring indicators, or Focal Ecosystem Components (FECs). On February 29, the day before the workshop, a full day was allocated to Traditional Knowledge (TK) holders to meet and elucidate how this important knowledge can be included in the process of building the Coastal Plan and monitoring biodiversity in Arctic coastal areas, along with scientific data and variables. This document provides 1) background information about the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme and the Coastal Expert Monitoring Group, 2) overviews on workshop presentations and breakout sessions, and 3) details regarding outcomes of the workshop that will inform the drafting of the Coastal Plan.

Conference Paper↗

Human-polar bear interactions

Human-wildlife interactions (HWI) are driven fundamentally by overlapping space and resources. As competition intensifies, the likelihood of interaction and conflict increases. In turn, conflict may impede conservation efforts by lowering social tolerance of wildlife, especially when human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a threat to human safety and economic well-being. Thus, mitigating conflict is one of the most consequential components of a wildlife management program, particularly for large carnivores. However, unlike other large carnivores, the causative factors and conservation consequences of interactions between humans and polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are poorly understood. Historically, mitigation of human-polar bear conflict has been a low management priority with the exception of a few locations where conflict had been a chronic concern. In part, this was because of low human densities in most of the Arctic and sea ice act as a physical barrier regulating the frequency of human-polar bear interactions. However, as the Arctic has warmed, anthropogenic activities have increased, and polar bears have become more reliant on land. As a result, mitigating interaction and conflict between humans and polar bears has become a growing concern. In this chapter, we explore the nexus of polar bear and human behavior and environmental change in driving the nature and intensity of human-polar bear interaction and conflict. We first provide an overview of behaviors that contribute to the occurrence of interactions and conflicts. We then review historical and contemporary drivers of interaction and conflict and examine how climate-mediated changes to Arctic marine and terrestrial environments are likely to influence distribution and types of future incidents. We close by proposing a conceptual framework that conservationists and managers can use to mitigate the likelihood of future human-polar bear conflict in a rapidly changing Arctic.

Book chapter↗

Birds of the Indigirka River Delta, Russia: Historical and biogeographic comparisons

We documented the breeding status and relative abundance of all avian species on the coastal portion of the Indigirka River Delta during spring and summer 1993-95. Data on avifaunal composition were then compared to data from adjacent areas from Eastern Siberia to the Chukotka Peninsula to evaluate how species composition changes longitudinally within the arctic and typical tundra zones of northern Russia. We recorded 63 species on the Indigirka River Delta, 37 (58.7 %) of which were confirmed breeders during at least one of the three years. Five new species were recorded breeding ( Arenaria interpres , Calidris acuminata , Limnodromus scolopaceus , Stercorarius parasiticus , and Asio flammeus ), and 13 previously unrecorded species were observed during this study. We also identified several species of rare or threatened status in Russia and North America, including Branta bernicla , Somateria fischeri , Polysticta stelleri , and Rhodostethia rosea . We used parsimony and distance matrix methods to compare the breeding species richness on the Indigirka River Delta to that of six other Russian Arctic areas. Biogeographic comparisons revealed the presence of two clades in the Russian Arctic: the Lena River Delta east to Chaun Delta and the Chukotka Peninsula.

Indigirka River Delta↗

Distribution and community characteristics of staging shorebirds on the northern coast of Alaska

Avian studies conducted in the 1970s on Alaska&rsquo;s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) indicated that coastal littoral habitats are important to Arctic-breeding shorebirds for staging prior to fall migration. However, relatively little recent, broad-scale, or quantitative information exists on shorebird use of staging areas in this region. To locate possible shorebird concentration areas in the littoral zone of the ACP, we conducted aerial surveys from the southwest end of Kasegaluk Lagoon on the Chukchi Sea to Demarcation Point on the Beaufort Sea during the summers of 2005&ndash;07. These surveys identified persistent within- and between-year concentrations of staging shorebirds at Peard Bay, Point Barrow/Elson Lagoon, Cape Simpson, and Smith Bay to Cape Halkett. Among river deltas in the Beaufort Sea, the Sagavanirktok and Kongakut deltas had large concentrations of staging shorebirds. We also collected data on shorebird community characteristics, staging phenology, and habitat use in 2005 and 2006 by conducting land-based surveys at six camps: Kasegaluk Lagoon, Peard Bay, Point Barrow/Elson Lagoon, Colville Delta, Sagavanirktok Delta, and Okpilak Delta. The shorebird community was more even and diverse (evenness E and Shannon Weiner H&rsquo; ) along the Beaufort Sea compared to the Chukchi Sea and in 2005 versus 2006. Staging phenology varied by species and location and differed for several species from that reported in previous studies. Our results suggest the existence of three foraging habitat guilds among the shorebird species observed in this study: gravel beach, mudflat, and salt marsh/pond edge. A comparison to data collected in the mid-1970s suggests that these foraging associations are conserved through time. Results from this research will be useful to land managers for monitoring the effects of changing environmental conditions and human activity on shorebirds and their habitats in Arctic Alaska.

Arctic↗