Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Search Search USGS

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Estimation of parental abundance using hierarchical Bayesian modeling with data augmentation

Pedigree-based estimation methods leverage the fact that each offspring in a cohort is genotypically “marked” by its parents and represent a recent and promising toolset for estimating population dynamics. This includes pedigree accumulation estimators that model the “accumulation” of inferred unique parents within a given cohort to estimate parental abundance. Unlike close-kin mark-recapture approaches, which rely on intercohort comparisons, pedigree accumulation modeling can be completed solely using intracohort samples. This is particularly advantageous for semelparous species, where intercohort pairs are impossible and adult life stages can be difficult to sample without affecting their likelihood of successfully reproducing. Previous work has evaluated a range of estimators for such datasets, concluding that the non-parametric Chao estimator provides the most accurate and precise estimates for feasible levels of sampling effort. We used simulated data to evaluate an alternative estimator based on hierarchical modeling and data augmentation in a Bayesian framework. Results indicate that estimates from the hierarchical Bayesian estimator had comparable accuracy and better precision than both the previously tested Chao1 estimator and the improved iChao formulation across a range of sample sizes and sex ratios. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimator was far more robust to simulated errors in pedigree reconstruction, especially the presence of false negatives. Hierarchical Bayesian pedigree accumulation models can also provide additional insight into underlying reproductive ecology through their use of an explicit observation process, allowing for the incorporation or estimation of species- and population-specific reproductive dynamics. More broadly, the parametric nature of these models offers opportunities to efficiently pool information among datasets as well as to propagate uncertainty within more complex models.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2026

Potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream temperature are greatest in streams with substantial cold groundwater inflows

Groundwater pumping-induced reductions in streamflow (known as ‘streamflow depletion’) have been documented worldwide, but potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature are not well understood. Here, we use two types of models to identify potential impacts of pumping on stream temperature across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to determine which aspects of a stream's annual thermograph (thermal signatures) can be used to monitor and manage streamflow depletion impacts on stream temperature. We used long-term streamflow and stream temperature data from 30 streamgages across CONUS and surrogate models of streamflow depletion to analyse potential stream temperature impacts at each site. We compared two different stream temperature modelling approaches: (i) a process-based energy balance model and (ii) statistical regression models based on air temperature and stream discharge. We calculated a suite of thermal signatures under depleted and non-depleted conditions for each stream and found that maximum annual 7-day temperature and annual temperature range are potentially the most sensitive to streamflow depletion, with potential changes of at least 2°C at > 70% of the sites when using the process-based model. We also found that the regression-based models predicted much less sensitivity of stream temperature to streamflow depletion than the process-based model. This work provides an initial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature. We demonstrate that stream temperature may be most sensitive to pumping in streams with a high proportion of flow sourced from relatively cold groundwater inputs, and that regression-based stream temperature models may underpredict stream temperature changes caused by streamflow depletion.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Spatial behavior of socially isolated wild pigs (Sus scrofa) following sounder removal via trapping

BACKGROUND The rapid expansion of wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) populations across North America, coupled with increased concern over disease transmission, has intensified the need for effective management strategies. Trapping is widely regarded as the most effective control method; however, trapping events often fail to capture entire sounders. The behavioral responses of untrapped individuals following partial sounder removal remain poorly understood, potentially undermining management efficiency. We evaluated the spatiotemporal movement responses of wild pigs that became socially isolated following trapping events. RESULTS We deployed GPS collars on 18 female wild pigs from multiple sounders and quantified post-trapping movement patterns using distance from trap site, step length, persistence velocity, space covered and overlap area over a 30-day period. Movement responses were highly variable among individuals, but wild pigs travelled an average of 1.2 km from the trap, with a maximum observed distance of 6.37 km. Space-use overlap was limited, and range sizes remained relatively stable. Individuals originating from sounders with a greater proportion of females moved farther from the trap, whereas wild pigs in better body condition exhibited lower movement velocities. CONCLUSION Socially isolated wild pigs generally remained close to trap sites following partial sounder removal and rarely dispersed from the area. This behavioral pattern suggests a predictable post-trapping window during which untrapped individuals remain spatially accessible. These findings provide critical empirical support for adaptive trapping strategies, indicating that follow-up removal efforts can be effectively concentrated near original trap locations to improve management efficiency and reduce the risk of population persistence or disease spread. © 2026 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Alabama↗
USGS2026

Resilience thinking for human-wildlife coexistence: Bridging dynamic systems, archetypes, and transformations

As human activities and wildlife increasingly overlap in the Anthropocene, conventional conservation paradigms focused on land-sparing are shifting toward strategies that support human–wildlife coexistence. However, achieving sustainable coexistence is often hindered by a limited understanding of the dynamic social–ecological processes that drive integrated human–wildlife systems. This Special Issue explores “resilience thinking” as a scientific framework to address these knowledge gaps. By bridging sustainability and wildlife sciences, we examine how concepts such as adaptive capacity, feedback loops, system archetypes, and tipping points can illuminate the conditions that facilitate stable coexistence or lead to persistent conflict. Through diverse global case studies ranging from carnivore management in Europe to primate interactions in Indonesia, contributions highlight how societal perceptions, governance, and co-adaptation shape system trajectories. Ultimately, we argue that fostering durable coexistence requires moving beyond incremental adaptation toward transformative governance that centers on equity, relationality, and proactive management.

Ambio↗
USGS2026

Multi-site evaluation of a postfire debris-flow runout forecast method

Postfire debris flows pose a hazard to human life, property, and infrastructure when they travel from steep source areas to urbanized alluvial fans or other developed areas. Existing methods for rapid (<1 week) postfire debris-flow hazard assessment document the increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows as the magnitude of high-intensity rain necessary to initiate debris flows increases but do not indicate the extent of downstream debris-flow runout. Although many models for the simulation of debris-flow motion are available, there is no established approach for using these models to delineate locations susceptible to postfire debris-flow runout that (a) is feasible to use at the spatial scale of an entire fire; (b) is appropriate for runout onto unconfined areas; (c) reproduces observed relations between runout and rainfall intensity; and (d) characterizes inherent uncertainty in runout, even without spatiotemporally variable rainfall. We propose and evaluate a method for generating postfire debris-flow runout hazard maps that has all the above qualities. Selection of case studies prioritized events triggered by a range of rainfall intensities, locations within and outside of southern California, and observed runout onto unconfined topography. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of performance for four events indicate that simulation results broadly match observations albeit with some discrepancies at a scale larger than structure or land parcel level (approximately 20-m by 20-m). The method may be used to identify potentially hazardous areas immediately following a fire and to provide approximate runout forecasts when a storm is imminent.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2026

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the 2024–2025 dyking episode along the Fentale–Dofen segment of the Ethiopian rift

From late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale–Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogues. While global catalogues are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential traveltimes measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale–Dofen volcanic plumbing system.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2026

Integrating data on a mixed stock anadromous fishery to estimate stock-specific escapement and mortalities

Objective Anadromous fisheries can affect stocks with differing management objectives. Understanding the effects of fisheries on individual stocks by quantifying final dispositions, including escapement and mortalities, is important for sustainable fishery management. Our objectives were to extend an existing management model that is used to evaluate final stock dispositions to estimate confidence intervals and to generalize the model so that it could be applied in other systems. Methods An annual run reconstruction model for estimating final dispositions of Snake River steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss was previously developed to evaluate mortalities and escapement for each stock. We extended and generalized this model in two ways: (1) to propagate uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation and (2) to fit the model using maximum likelihood methods. We generated confidence intervals and conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate sources of uncertainty. Results The Monte Carlo version of the model explicitly propagates uncertainty in inputs through to model predictions, whereas the maximum likelihood version includes additional data sources, such as catch composition and escapement. We estimated disposition metrics for Snake River steelhead using the original formulation, Monte Carlo version, and the maximum likelihood version for the 2018–2019 season, and we found that the results were similar but that the maximum likelihood version provided a better fit to the observed data. Conclusions We demonstrate how to account for uncertainty when synthesizing several kinds of monitoring data. Improved characterizations of uncertainty facilitate better decision making about future data collection and fisheries management.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2026

A multi-species, multi-season evaluation of body condition effects on fish survival in a coolwater stream

Objective Body condition is often used as a surrogate of individual fitness in fisheries ecology and management, but empirical data demonstrating this linkage are few. Here, we investigated whether weight at length (i.e., body condition) explained individual variation in survival. Methods We conducted a mark–recapture survey of three native fishes subseasonally (every 2 months) over 28 months in a coolwater Piedmont stream in South Carolina, United States. We used a Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in the Bayesian state–space framework to characterize whether survival was explained by body condition. Results Body condition changed subseasonally, with its peak in spring (May) and trough in fall (November) in all three species (Bluehead Chub Nocomis leptocephalus , Creek Chub Semotilus atromaculatus , and Mottled Sculpin Cottus bairdii ). Survival decreased in warmer subseasons for all species. Additionally, individuals with higher body condition survived better than those with lower condition only in these warmer subseasons and only in the Mottled Sculpin, a species that is territorial and the most intolerant of warmer temperatures among the study species. Conclusions Our findings show that body condition is a predictor of survival only when populations undergo high mortalities in some but not all species, which are likely caused by a combination of factors, such as physiological stress, diminished food resources, and increased competition for resources.

South Carolina↗
USGS2026

Timing is everything: Drivers of upstream movement of fishes

Objective Understanding whether fishes quickly respond to shifting temperatures and flows, especially as they pass through river reaches that may be thermally unsuitable, may help to prioritize climate-informed management strategies. Methods Here, we use 15 years of daily fish passage data (2005–2020) from the Leaburg Dam on the McKenzie River, Oregon, USA, with water temperatures and river flows from two associated gauges. We examine the relative influence of temperature, flow, and calendar date on fish moving upstream, the range of conditions experienced by each species, and long-term patterns in timing, supported by annual count data from the years 1971–2020. Results Comparisons of timing and conditions while each species passed upstream through the Leaburg Dam fish ladders revealed that some taxa were more consistent seasonally (e.g., Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus and Largescale Sucker Catostomus macrocheilus ), experiencing a more restricted range of conditions, while others moved throughout the year under highly variable environmental conditions (e.g., trout). For both groups, calendar date appeared to be a primary driver of movement timing, even when local environmental factors of temperature and flow were considered. We note broad trends toward earlier passage across all species except Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . Notable declines in movement of Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni and Largescale Suckers occurred during years of extreme weather events, indicating that they may be particularly sensitive to the combined impacts of water temperature and flow and could serve as sentinel taxa. Conclusions Although timing is recognized as a driver for the onset of migrations, this suggests that most fish may continue to move upriver during consistent time periods, potentially increasing their risk of exposure to suboptimal environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate the utility of long-term passage data for detecting patterns in local timing, environmental conditions co-occurring with fish movement, and the sensitivity of different fish species in responding to environmental extremes during upstream migrations.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Epigenetics in captivity: Restoring wild phenotypes in captive-reared salmonids

Captive rearing is a common practice for the stocking, conservation, and supplementation of fish species worldwide, but captive-reared fish can exhibit altered phenotypes leading to reduced fitness in nature compared to wild conspecifics. In salmonids, certain studies have found limited genetic differentiation between wild and captive-reared fish. However, documented changes in gene expression in hatchery fish have led scientists to investigate epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, as a source of these differences. In this binational collaborative piece, we synthesize the knowledge and efforts of academics and government scientists to highlight how interactions between captive rearing and the epigenome elicit parallel phenotypic changes across salmonid species. We examine the known and potential links between DNA methylation and the phenotypic effects of captive rearing including changes in behavior, color, gut microbiomes, and developmental abnormalities. We review efforts to minimize these phenotypic and epigenetic effects including attempts to modify the hatchery environment and rearing protocols. We provide a framework to integrate epigenetic considerations into hatchery rearing protocols by weighing the heritable nature of DNA methylation with the goals of different captive rearing programs and explore whether minimizing the phenotypic and epigenetic effects of captive rearing is worthwhile. We examine heritability and persistence of epigenetic effects, and we propose the exploitation of heritable bet-hedging as an epigenetic buffer to increase post-release survival. We also suggest novel applications of epigenomic biomarkers as a non-lethal method for post-release monitoring. Ultimately, collaborative multi-disciplinary research across species is needed to understand the comprehensive effects of captive rearing, reduce the ecological impacts of captive fish in the wild, and increase population resilience. Integrating epigenetics into fish hatchery management will provide new opportunities for optimizing and improving captive rearing.

Evolutionary Applications↗
USGS2026

Evidence for organic and igneous carbon sources in the Mesoproterozoic Adirondack Highlands graphite district, New York

This study examined the origin of graphite mineralization in the Mesoproterozoic Adirondack Highlands. Flake graphite was mined from the historic mining district around Ticonderoga, New York, USA, from the 1850s to the 1920s. Most of the production and reserves from the district are disseminated graphite from feldspathic quartz schists (e.g., Dixon-American Graphite Co. mine, Faxon property, Flake Graphite Company). Protolith sediments of the schists were deposited in the Trans-Adirondack backarc basin at ca. 1.25 Ga and were metamorphosed to high grade at 1.18–1.15 Ga during the accretionary Shawinigan orogeny and at 1.09–1.02 Ga during the Ottawan phase of the Grenvillian orogeny. Major elements and carbon isotopes of graphite from schists (δ 13 C = −28.1‰ to −5.4‰ relative to Vienna Peedee belemnite) are consistent with derivation from organic carbon in protolith sandstones that devolatilized during metamorphism. Some small mines and prospects in the district mined graphitic calcite marbles and clinopyroxene ± scapolite skarns associated with a pegmatite suite dated by U-Pb in zircon to 1.04–1.01 Ga (e.g., Lead Hill and Crown Point deposits), and rare graphite veins are observed at several deposits. Hydrothermal flake graphite from pegmatites, skarns, and veins are distinct from graphite in schist-hosted deposits and have δ 13 C values that cluster around −7‰ to −5‰, consistent with deposition from igneous CO 2 . Covariation of carbon and oxygen stable isotopes and U-Pb zircon geochronology are not compatible with precipitation from fluids derived from country rock metapelites or marbles. Some graphite districts elsewhere show compelling evidence for remobilization and redeposition of sedimentary-derived carbon as hydrothermal graphite, sometimes as thick veins producing world-class, high-grade deposits. In the Adirondacks, there is evidence for two generations of graphite mineralization with distinct carbon sources: syngenetic graphite with an organic origin in Shawinigan quartz schists and epigenetic graphite with an igneous origin in Ottawan skarns and pegmatites.

New York↗
USGS2026

Orientation dependence of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from CyberShake physics-based simulations

Earthquake ground‐motion intensities, such as pseudospectral accelerations (SAs), can vary significantly with horizontal orientation. However, conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for each horizontal orientation is challenging because current ground‐motion models used in PSHA consider only a single horizontal intensity value, usually the median across all orientations, known as RotD50. To address this limitation, we employ physics‐based simulations for PSHA, which contain full waveforms from which ground‐motion intensities can be computed for all horizontal orientations to study directional seismic hazard. We apply our approach to the latest CyberShake study of the Greater Los Angeles metropolitan area, developed by the Statewide California Earthquake Center, finding that seismic hazard at a 2475‐yr return period, a common value used for earthquake‐resistant design, varies significantly with horizontal orientation. For instance, for SAs at 3 s, the maximum seismic hazard across all horizontal orientations is, on average, 15% higher than the median RotD50 hazard, with these differences becoming more pronounced at longer periods. These observed variations can generally be attributed to physical mechanisms that polarize seismic waves, such as the radiation pattern of the earthquake source and the influence of the subsurface structure. These results may have important implications for earthquake engineering applications, particularly for long‐period structures in areas with substantial horizontal variations in seismic hazard.

California↗
USGS2026

ECCOE Landsat quarterly calibration and validation report—Quarter 3, 2025

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 3 (July–September) of 2025. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov .

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Spatial units to support Lake Erie Cisco Coregonus artedi restoration

At the request of the Lake Erie Committee, spatial units for Lake Erie Cisco were delineated during spring 2024. Spatial units correspond to the reproductive habitat of extirpated (unoccupied spatial units) and extant (occupied spatial units) populations. Spatial units were delineated using a Council of Lake Committees-endorsed method that involves synthesizing data for evaluation by a panel with expertise on the focal organisms and ecosystems. By examining catch, survey, observational, and genetic data, an expert panel determined that no viable Cisco populations remain in Lake Erie. Experts delineated one eastern and one western unoccupied Cisco spatial unit in Lake Erie based on interpretation of historical movement and spawning locations and timing. The expert panel also identified eleven key questions that can be investigated to further inform Lake Erie Cisco restoration. The two unoccupied spatial units will form the basis of a follow-on threats assessment and population viability models that together provide fishery managers science-based planning tools for Lake Erie Cisco restoration.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2026

Relative influence of flow regime, natural and anthropogenic environment on multidimensional stream fish diversity

The flow regime is considered a ‘master variable’ in riverine ecology because it directly influences stream geomorphology and biological communities. However, other environmental and anthropogenic factors have direct and synergistic effects with flow on fish diversity, complicating estimates of the flow regime's true importance. Moreover, most flow-ecology studies focus only on taxonomic diversity (i.e., species), without considering functional (trait-focused) or phylogenetic (evolution-focused) dimensions of diversity. In this study, we used linear regression with variation partitioning to parse out the independent and shared roles of the flow regime, physical environmental factors (e.g., soil characteristics) and the anthropogenic environment (e.g., developed land cover) for structuring multidimensional diversity of 365 stream fish communities in two biogeographic regions across South Carolina, USA. These variables explained between 8% and 18% of total variation of the local diversity. The flow regime contributed to diversity in all cases, but frequently covaried with physical and/or anthropogenic environmental variables. This covariation indicated that the independent role of flow would have been inflated if other environmental variables were not considered. The three dimensions of stream fish diversity were weakly correlated with one another and were associated with different environmental variables, indicating that each of them represents unique and complimentary facets of fish diversity. Accordingly, only considering the independent effects of instream flow on fish diversity may miss meaningful interactions between the flow regime and the other components of the environment that influence biodiversity patterns, leading to over simplified flow–ecology relationships.

South Carolina↗
USGS2026

Finding the (small) cores: Spatial covariance tracks grassland bird community occupancy in fragmented grasslands

Grasslands are an imperiled ecosystem, and grassland bird abundance is declining across North America. One of the strongest drivers for these declines is woody plant encroachment of grasslands. In the Great Plains and Sagebrush biomes of North America, spatial covariance—a remote-sensing metric for tracking boundaries between vegetation types—is emerging as a new method to identify and strategize conservation of grassland cores in the face of woody plant encroachment. However, the relationship between spatial covariance and grassland bird community occupancy is unknown. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy models to understand how occupancy probability of six declining grassland species responded to spatial covariance at three scales (0.81, 7.29, and 65.61 ha) and tree cover in fragmented grasslands of Arkansas, USA. Model selection revealed that the smallest spatial scale (0.81 ha) best explained grassland bird occupancy. Tree cover alone was a poor predictor of grassland bird occupancy compared to models that included spatial covariance at the 0.81- and 7.29-ha scales. Grassland bird occupancy declined at tree-grass boundaries (negative spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale) and increased in grassland cores (near-zero or slightly positive spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale). At low tree cover, Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ), Eastern Kingbird ( Tyrannus tyrannus ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), and Scissor-tailed Flycatcher ( Tyrannus forficatus ) occupancy probability more than doubled in grassland cores (where spatial covariance approached zero). Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) had the weakest relationship with spatial covariance. Our results suggest that spatial covariance can identify grassland cores and serve as a powerful predictor of grassland bird community occupancy, even in highly fragmented grasslands. Identifying grassland cores empowers defending core grasslands from woody plant encroachment and then growing cores via active restoration.

Arkansas↗
USGS2026

The effects of scientific uncertainty and values trade-offs on flow management decisions for an endangered fish

Consumptive use of freshwater is of concern in many estuarine ecosystems, and various frameworks have been used to prescribe environmental flows to benefit native species. However, few of these frameworks explicitly examine the potential trade-offs between socioeconomic and conservation-oriented values. This is exemplified in California, USA, where freshwater management has been an area of focus and controversy. Operations of numerous reservoirs and water diversion facilities distributed throughout the state, while critical for economic and public health benefits, have contributed to the decline of many native species. The endangered delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) is endemic to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the heart of California's complex water conveyance system. To aid recovery of delta smelt, fall-timed freshwater pulse flows were implemented, which require water to be either released from reservoirs, or made unavailable to export for consumptive uses. Previous research has indicated that the effectiveness of the current pulse flow action could be improved by reconsidering the timing and magnitude; however, uncertainties in the predicted fish response to flow pulses may hinder decision-making about flow management. Using a water resource planning model, different iterations of an individual-based life cycle model, and decision analysis tools, we assessed the importance of sources of uncertainty to hypothetical flow management decisions, including uncertainty surrounding the predicted responses in delta smelt population growth rates, and variability of decision-maker's values. We found both the choice of which (if any) flow action to take for delta smelt, and the expected value of further research, depended on how decision-makers weight the delta smelt and water supply objectives. There was expected value of information (VOI) only if a decision-maker weighted the delta smelt objective ≥0.59, and within this range, research to improve estimates of changes in delta smelt prey items related to flow actions could be prioritized over other sources of uncertainty to improve outcomes of decision-making. Our study demonstrates how uncertainty, even if large, may not be equally relevant to different decision-makers (e.g., with different agency missions), and how VOI analysis can be used to guide management in an overallocated water system such as California.

California↗
USGS2026

Groundwater drought in the United States: Spatial and temporal variability

Many communities and ecosystems in the United States that are dependent on groundwater are potentially adversely affected by groundwater drought. We computed yearly groundwater-drought metrics and mean groundwater levels at well locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS), using data from wells and remotely sensed and modeled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Drought Monitor Data Assimilation (GRACE-DADM). We also modeled the probability of low or high human impact at each well location. The spatial distribution of groundwater-drought duration and severity from 2001 to 2020 for 1,510 wells shows longer maximum duration and higher maximum severity events in drier regions like the Southwest than in wetter regions like the Northeast. Based on 613 wells in CONUS from 1981 to 2020, there are many significant decreases in drought duration and severity in the Northeast and many significant increases in annual-mean groundwater levels. In contrast, there are many significant increases in drought metrics and decreases in mean water levels in parts of the Southeast. There are major differences in trends from 2001 to 2020 between well-based and GRACE-DADM-based groundwater metrics in some CONUS regions and a very low correlation between trends at individual locations across CONUS. A potential reason for this disparity is the low GRACE-DADM resolution (∼12 km) and the potential for a large amount of groundwater variation at the local scale. Also, GRACE-DADM represents shallow, unconfined aquifers which may not match the screened interval of the monitoring wells we evaluated. Large spatial gaps in long-term, high frequency, and quality-assured groundwater-well monitoring data present a challenge for understanding groundwater-drought variability across CONUS. Remote sensing tools such as GRACE can help but cannot fully replace well monitoring, as highlighted by our study results. Substantially more long-term monitoring wells would more accurately represent groundwater-drought trends and spatial variability across CONUS, particularly in western regions.

conterminous United States↗