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Greater than the sum of its parts: Computationally flexible Bayesian hierarchical modeling

We propose a multistage method for making inference at all levels of a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using natural data partitions to increase efficiency by allowing computations to take place in parallel form using software that is most appropriate for each data partition. The full hierarchical model is then approximated by the product of independent normal distributions for the data component of the model. In the second stage, the Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator is found by maximizing the approximated posterior density with respect to the parameters. If the parameters of the model can be represented as normally distributed random effects, then the second-stage optimization is equivalent to fitting a multivariate normal linear mixed model. We consider a third stage that updates the estimates of distinct parameters for each data partition based on the results of the second stage. The method is demonstrated with two ecological data sets and models, a generalized linear mixed effects model (GLMM) and an integrated population model (IPM). The multistage results were compared to estimates from models fit in single stages to the entire data set. In both cases, multistage results were very similar to a full MCMC analysis. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

Modes of development of slope canyons and their relation to channel and levee features on the Ebro sediment apron, off-shore northeastern Spain

Six submarine slope canyons in an area of the northwestern Mediterranean, offshore from the Ebro River and Delta, were surveyed with bathymetric swathmapping (SeaBeam) and mid-range side-looking sonar (SeaMARC I). All of the canyons have slightly winding paths with concave-upwards gradients that are relatively steep shallower than 1,200 m. Two major types of canyons are identified on the basis of their morphologic character at the base of the slope; Type-I canyons lead to an unchannelled base-of-slope deposit and Type-II canyons are continuous with channel-levee systems that cross the rise. Four Type-I canyons were surveyed in the area. Two of these are broad, U-shaped, steep (average gradients of 1:14), do not indent the shelf, and terminate downslope at debris-flow deposits. These two canyons, the most northern in the area, have rounded heads with extensive gullies separated by knife-edge ridges. Relief of the canyon walls is about equal on both sides of the canyons, although the right-hand walls (looking downslope) are generally steeper. The other two Type-I canyons in the area are similar in that they do not indent the shelf, but they are much smaller and shallower and coalesce before terminating in the base-of-slope region. The two Type-II canyons that feed leveed-channels are U-shaped with flatter floors, longer profiles and gentler gradients than Type-I canyons. They are closer to the Valencia Valley and have relatively small cross-sectional areas. We propose a four-stage evolutionary sequence to explain the development of the canyons observed in this section on the prograding Ebro margin. During the initial stage, slumping and erosion on the slope creates a network of small gullies. During the next stage, headward growth of one (or more) gully leads to a major indentation of the shelf. This is the critical factor for developing a channel that will incise the slope and provide a major conduit for moving sediment to the basin. Stage 3 is characterized by the development of a continuous channel accompanied by levee growth across the lobe. In the final stage, the channel-levee system becomes inactive either through destruction by mass wasting, infilling of the channel, or loss of the major sediment source. ?? 1987.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

Geology of the Hawaiian Islands

Long known as the island chain farthest from any continental landmass, the Hawaiian Islands are the subaerial expression of volcanism above the relatively fixed Hawaiian hot spot as the Pacific plate drifts northwest above it. Each island is built by one or several overlapping shield volcanoes, some of the most voluminous on Earth. Plate translation creates the well-known age-progressive sequence of shield volcanoes from northwest to southeast. Total volume of magma produced along the Hawaiian chain has been irregular but generally increasing for the past 50 million years, a trend that has peaked in the last 3 million years. Hawaiian volcanoes grow through stages that have geologic expression and geochemical differences that reflect position relative to the underlying hot spot. Of these stages, the shield stage is the most productive when an estimated 80–95% of a volcano's ultimate volume is emplaced. The shield stage endures for about 1 million years. The burden of shield volcanoes depresses the ocean crust near the hot spot, creating the Hawaiian Moat. Greatest rate of subsidence today occurs at the Island of Hawai‘i, 2–3 mm per year along its coast. Flexural rebound occurs as volcanoes move away from the hot spot; the Island of O‘ahu shows the greatest uplift. Slow subsidence resumes downstream from the flexure, leading ultimately to submergence of each island in the chain. Large landslides, albeit infrequent, can occur at any stage of island evolution. Ground water is the principal source of potable and agricultural water on all islands; its distribution both reflects and influences island geology.

Hawaii↗

Dynamic deformation of Seguam Island, Alaska, 1992--2008, from multi-interferogram InSAR processing

We generated a time-series of ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images to study ground surface deformation at Seguam Island from 1992 to 2008. We used the small baseline subset (SBAS) technique to reduce artifacts associated with baseline uncertainties and atmospheric delay anomalies, and processed images from two adjacent tracks to validate our results. Seguam Island comprises the remnants of two late Quaternary calderas, one in the western caldera of the island and one in the eastern part of the island. The western caldera subsided at a constant rate of ~ 1.6 cm/yr throughout the study period, while the eastern caldera experienced alternating periods of subsidence and uplift: ~ 5 cm/year uplift during January 1993–October 1993 (stage 1), ~ 1.6 cm/year subsidence during October 1993–November 1998 (stage 2), ~ 2.0 cm/year uplift during November 1998–September 2000 (stage 3), ~ 1.4 cm/year subsidence during September 2000–November 2005 (stage 4), and ~ 0.8 cm/year uplift during November 2005– July 2007 (stage 5). Source modeling indicates a deflationary source less than 2 km below sea level (BSL) beneath the western caldera and two sources beneath the eastern caldera: an inflationary source 2.5–6.0 km BSL and a deflationary source less than 2 km BSL. We suggest that uplift of the eastern caldera is driven by episodic intrusions of basaltic magma into a poroelastic reservoir 2.5–6.0 km BSL beneath the caldera. Cooling and degassing of the reservoir between intrusions results in steady subsidence of the overlying surface. Although we found no evidence of magma intrusion beneath the western caldera during the study period, it is the site (Pyre Peak) of all historical eruptions on the island and therefore cooling and degassing of intrusions presumably contributes to subsidence there as well. Another likely subsidence mechanism in the western caldera is thermoelastic contraction of lava flows emplaced near Pyre Peak during several historical eruptions, most recently in 1977 and 1992–93.

Alaska↗

Magmatic-vapor expansion and the formation of high-sulfidation gold deposits: Chemical controls on alteration and mineralization

Large bulk-tonnage high-sulfidation gold deposits, such as Yanacocha, Peru, are the surface expression of structurally-controlled lode gold deposits, such as El Indio, Chile. Both formed in active andesite–dacite volcanic terranes. Fluid inclusion, stable isotope and geologic data show that lode deposits formed within 1500 m of the paleo-surface as a consequence of the expansion of low-salinity, low-density magmatic vapor with very limited, if any, groundwater mixing. They are characterized by an initial ‘Sulfate’ Stage of advanced argillic wallrock alteration ± alunite commonly with intense silicification followed by a ‘Sulfide’ Stage — a succession of discrete sulfide–sulfosalt veins that may be ore grade in gold and silver. Fluid inclusions in quartz formed during wallrock alteration have homogenization temperatures between 100 and over 500 °C and preserve a record of a vapor-rich environment. Recent data for El Indio and similar deposits show that at the commencement of the Sulfide Stage, ‘condensation’ of Cu–As–S sulfosalt melts with trace concentrations of Sb, Te, Bi, Ag and Au occurred at > 600 °C following pyrite deposition. Euhedral quartz crystals were simultaneously deposited from the vapor phase during crystallization of the vapor-saturated melt occurs to Fe-tennantite with progressive non-equilibrium fractionation of heavy metals between melt-vapor and solid. Vugs containing a range of sulfides, sulfosalts and gold record the changing composition of the vapor. Published fluid inclusion and mineralogical data are reviewed in the context of geological relationships to establish boundary conditions through which to trace the expansion of magmatic vapor from source to surface and consequent alteration and mineralization. Initially heat loss from the vapor is high resulting in the formation of acid condensate permeating through the wallrock. This Sulfate Stage alteration effectively isolates the expansion of magmatic vapor in subsurface fracture arrays from any external contemporary hydrothermal activity. Subsequent fracturing is localized by the embrittled wallrock to provide high-permeability fracture arrays that constrain vapor expansion with minimization of heat loss. The Sulfide Stage vein sequence is then a consequence of destabilization of metal-vapor species in response to depressurization and decrease in vapor density. The geology, mineralogy, fluid inclusion and stable isotope data and geothermometry for high-sulfidation, bulk-tonnage and lode deposits are quite different from those for epithermal gold–silver deposits such as McLaughlin, California that formed near-surface in groundwater-dominated hydrothermal systems where magmatic fluid has been diluted to less than about 30%. High sulfidation gold deposits are better termed ‘Solfataric Gold Deposits’ to emphasize this distinction. The magmatic-vapor expansion hypothesis also applies to the phenomenology of acidic geothermal systems in active volcanic systems and equivalent magmatic-vapor discharges on the flanks of submarine volcanoes.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

A 1.8 million year history of Amazon vegetation

During the Pleistocene, long-term trends in global climate were controlled by orbital cycles leading to high amplitude glacial-interglacial variability. The history of Amazonian vegetation during this period is largely unknown since no continuous record from the lowland basin extends significantly beyond the last glacial stage. Here we present a paleoenvironmental record spanning the last 1800 kyr based on palynological data, biome reconstructions, and biodiversity metrics from a marine sediment core that preserves a continuous archive of sediments from the Amazon River. Tropical rainforests dominated the Amazonian lowlands during the last 1800 ka interchanging with surrounding warm-temperate rainforests and tropical seasonal forests. Between 1800 and 1000 ka, rainforest biomes were present in the Amazon drainage basin, along with extensive riparian wetland vegetation. Tropical rainforest expansion occurred during the relatively warm Marine Isotope Stages 33 and 31 (ca. 1110 to 1060 ka), followed by a contraction of both forests and wetlands until ca. 800 ka. Between 800 and 400 ka, low pollen concentration and low diversity of palynological assemblages renders difficult the interpretation of Amazonian vegetation. A strong synchronicity between vegetation changes and glacial-interglacial global climate cycles was established around 400 ka. After 400 ka, interglacial vegetation was dominated by lowland tropical rainforest in association with warmer temperatures and higher CO 2 . During cooler temperatures and lower CO 2 of glacial stages, tropical seasonal forests expanded, presumably towards eastern Amazonia. While this study provides no evidence supporting a significant expansion of savanna or steppe vegetation within the Amazonian lowlands during glacial periods, there were changes in the rainforest composition in some parts of the basin towards a higher proportion of deciduous elements, pointing to less humid conditions and/or greater seasonality of precipitation. Nevertheless, rainforest persisted during both glacial and interglacial periods. These findings confirm the sensitivity of tropical lowland vegetation to changes in CO 2 , temperature, and moisture availability and the most suitable conditions for tropical rainforests occurred during the warmest stages of the Mid Pleistocene Transition and during the interglacial stages of the past 400 kyr.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects

Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.

Resources Policy↗

Physical and stable-isotope evidence for formation of secondary calcite and silica in the unsaturated zone, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Calcite and silica form coatings on fracture footwalls and cavity floors in the welded tuffs at Yucca Mountain, the potential site of a high-level radioactive waste repository. These secondary mineral deposits are heterogeneously distributed in the unsaturated zone (UZ) with fewer than 10% of possible depositional sites mineralized. The paragenetic sequence, compiled from deposits throughout the UZ, consists of an early-stage assemblage of calcite??fluorite??zeolites that is frequently capped by chalcedony??quartz. Intermediate- and late-stage deposits consist largely of calcite, commonly with opal on buried growth layers or outermost crystal faces of the calcite. Coatings on steep-dipping fractures usually are thin (??? 3 mm) with low-relief outer surfaces whereas shallow-dipping fractures and lithophysal cavities typically contain thicker, more coarsely crystalline deposits characterized by unusual thin, tabular calcite blades up to several cms in length. These blades may be capped with knobby or corniced overgrowths of late-stage calcite intergrown with opal. The observed textures in the fracture and cavity deposits are consistent with deposition from films of water fingering down fracture footwalls or drawn up faces of growing crystals by surface tension and evaporated at the crystal tips. Fluid inclusion studies have shown that most early-stage and some intermediate-stage calcite formed at temperatures of 35 to 85??C. Calcite deposition during the past several million years appears to have been at temperatures < 30??C. The elevated temperatures indicated by the fluid inclusions are consistent with temperatures estimated from calcite ??18O values. Although others have interpreted the elevated temperatures as evidence of hydrothermal activity and flooding of the tuffs of the potential repository, the authors conclude that the temperatures and fluid-inclusion assemblages are consistent with deposition in a UZ environment that experienced prolonged heat input from gradual cooling of nearby plutons. The physical restriction of the deposits (and, therefore, fluid flow) to fracture footwalls and cavity floors and the heterogeneous and limited distribution of the deposits provides compelling evidence that they do not reflect flooding of the thick UZ at Yucca Mountain. The textures and isotopic and chemical compositions of these mineral deposits are consistent with deposition in a UZ setting from meteoric waters percolating downward along fracture flow paths.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Metamorphosis affects metal concentrations and isotopic signatures in a mayfly ( Baetis tricaudatus ): Implications for the aquatic-terrestrial transfer of metals

Insect metamorphosis often results in substantial chemical changes that can alter contaminant concentrations and fractionate isotopes. We exposed larval mayflies ( Baetis tricaudatus ) and their food (periphyton) to an aqueous zinc gradient (3-340 µg Zn/l) and measured zinc concentrations at different stages of metamorphosis: larval, subimago, and imago. We also measured changes in stable isotopes (δ 15 N and δ 13 C) in unexposed mayflies. Larval zinc concentrations were positively related to aqueous zinc, increasing 9-fold across the exposure gradient. Adult zinc concentrations were also positively related to aqueous zinc, but were 7-fold lower than larvae. This relationship varied according to adult substage and sex. Tissue concentrations in female imagoes were not related to exposure concentrations, but the converse was true for all other stage-by-sex combinations. Metamorphosis also increased δ 15 N by ~0.8‰, but not δ 13 C. Thus, the main effects of metamorphosis on insect chemistry were large declines in zinc concentrations coupled with increased δ 15 N signatures. For zinc, this change was largely consistent across the aqueous exposure gradient. However, differences among sexes and stages suggest that caution is warranted when using nitrogen isotopes or metal concentrations measured in one insect stage (e.g. larvae) to assess risk to wildlife that feed on subsequent life stages (e.g. adults).

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Gonadotropin-dependent oocyte maturational competence requires activation of the protein kinase A pathway and synthesis of RNA and protein in ovarian follicles of Nibe, Nibea mitsukurii (Teleostei, Sciaenidae)

Luteinizing hormone- (LH)-dependent ovarian follicle maturation has been recently described in two stages for teleost fishes. The oocyte's ability to respond to the steroidal maturation-inducing hormone (MIH), also known as oocyte maturational competence (OMC), is acquired during the first stage; whereas the MIH-dependent resumption of meiosis occurs during the second stage. However, studies directly addressing OMC have been performed with a limited number of species and therefore the general relevance of the two-stage model and its mechanisms remain uncertain. In this study, we examined the hormonal regulation of OMC and its basic transduction mechanisms in ovarian follicles of the sciaenid teleost, Nibe (Nibea mitsukurii). Exposure to MIH [17,20??-dihydroxy-4-pregnen-3-one or 17,20??,21-trihydroxy-4-pregnen-3-one] stimulated germinal vesicle breakdown (index of meiotic resumption) in full-grown follicles primed with human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG, an LH-like gonadotropin) but not in those pre-cultured in plain incubation medium. The induction of OMC by HCG was mimicked by protein kinase A (PKA) activators (forskolin and dibutyryl cyclic AMP), and blocked by specific inhibitors of PKA (H89 and H8) as well as inhibitors of RNA (actinomycin D) and protein (cycloheximide) synthesis. Forskolin-induced OMC was also inhibited by actinomycin D and cycloheximide. A strong activator of protein kinase C, PMA, inhibited HCG-dependent OMC. In conclusion, OMC in Nibe ovarian follicles is gonadotropin-dependent and requires activation of the PKA pathway followed by gene transcription and translation events. These observations are consistent with the two-stage model of ovarian follicle maturation proposed for other teleosts, and suggest that Nibe can be used as new model species for mechanistic studies of ovarian follicle differentiation and maturation in fishes.

Fish Physiology and Biochemistry↗

East Molokai and other Kea-trend volcanoes: Magmatic processes and sources as they migrate away from the Hawaiian hot spot

[1] There are geochemical differences between shield lavas from the two parallel trends, Kea and Loa, defined by young Hawaiian volcanoes. The shield of East Molokai volcano, at greater than 1.5 Ma, is the oldest volcano on the Kea trend. Sequences of older tholeiitic to younger alkalic basalt that erupted as this volcano evolved from the shield to postshield stage of volcanism are well exposed. Much younger, ∼0.34–0.57 Ma, alkalic basalt and basanite erupted during rejuvenated stage volcanism. Like rejuvenated stage lavas erupted at other Hawaiian volcanoes, rejuvenated stage East Molokai lavas have relatively low 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and high 143 Nd/ 144 Nd. Such ratios reflect a source component with a long-term depletion in abundance of incompatible elements. On the basis of positive correlations of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr versus 206 Pb/ 204 Pb and negative correlations of these isotopic ratios with Nb/Zr, a smaller proportion of this depleted component also contributed to the late shield/postshield lavas erupted at East Molokai and the other Kea-trend volcanoes, Haleakala and Mauna Kea. At each of these Kea-trend volcanoes, as the volcano moved away from the hot spot, the extent of melting and magma supply from the mantle decreased, the depth of melt segregation increased, and there was an increasing role for a component with long-term relative depletion in incompatible elements. This depleted component has Kea-trend Pb isotopic characteristics and relatively low 208 Pb/ 204 Pb at a given 206 Pb/ 204 Pb, and it is probably not related to oceanic lithosphere or the source of mid-ocean ridge basalt. The overlap in Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope ratios of recent Kilauea shield lavas and 550 ka Mauna Kea shield lavas has been used to argue that Kea-trend shield volcanism samples a vertically continuous, geochemically distinct stripe which persisted in the hot spot source for 550 kyr (Eisele et al., 2003; Abouchami et al., 2005). As Kea-trend volcanoes migrate away from the hot spot and evolve from the shield to postshield stage, there are systematic changes in Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope ratios. However, the overlap of Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope ratios in late shield/postshield lavas from Mauna Kea (<350 ka) and East Molokai (∼1.5 Ma) show that the periphery of the hot spot sampled by Kea-trend postshield lavas also had long-term geochemical homogeneity.

Hawai'i↗

Long-term trends of ground-water levels in the United States

Ground-water levels at the end of 1954 were at or near record-low stages throughout most of the southern two-thirds of the United States. These low stages, like those of the early 1930's, have led to frequent expression of the opinion that the water table throughout the country is continuously falling and that we are gradually exhausting our ground-water supplies. A good record of changes in ground-water levels is being obtained by the United States Geological Survey and cooperating State agencies from periodical measurements of water levels in nearly 20,000 observation wells. The records of some of these wells extend back 50 years. Many records are available for the period beginning in 1934. These long-term records indicate that in some areas the ground-water supply is overdeveloped. In the great majority of areas, however, the stage of the water levels correlates with the precipitation. Much of the country has been in drought and the water levels are at a low stage. As the precipitation increases, as it is bound to do later, the water levels will return to higher stages.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Novel single-nucleotide polymorphism markers confirm successful spawning of endangered pallid sturgeon in the upper Missouri River Basin

Spawning of the federally endangered Pallid Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is known to occur in the upper Missouri River basin, but progeny from natural reproductive events have not been observed and recruitment to juvenile or adult life stages has not been documented in recent decades. Identification of Pallid Sturgeon progeny is confounded by the fact that Shovelnose Sturgeon S. platorynchus occurs throughout the entire range of Pallid Sturgeon and the two species are essentially indistinguishable (morphometrically and meristically) during early life stages. Moreover, free embryos of sympatric Paddlefish Polyodon spathula are very similar to the two sturgeon species. In this study, three single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assays were employed to screen acipenseriform free embryos and larvae collected from the upper Missouri River basin in 2011, 2012, and 2013. A mitochondrial DNA SNP discriminates Paddlefish from sturgeon, and specific multilocus genotypes at two nuclear DNA SNPs occurred in 98.9% of wild adult Pallid Sturgeon but only in 3% of Shovelnose Sturgeon sampled in the upper Missouri River. Individuals identified as potential Pallid Sturgeon based on SNP genotypes were further analyzed at 19 microsatellite loci for species discrimination. Out of 1,423 free embryos collected over 3 years of sampling, 971 Paddlefish, 446 Shovelnose Sturgeon, and 6 Pallid Sturgeon were identified. Additionally, 249 Scaphirhynchus spp. benthic larvae were screened, but no Pallid Sturgeon were detected. These SNP markers provide an efficient method of screening acipenseriform early life stages for the presence of Pallid Sturgeon in the Missouri River basin. Detection of wild Pallid Sturgeon free embryos in the upper Missouri and Yellowstone rivers supports the hypothesis that the failure of wild Pallid Sturgeon to recruit to the juvenile life stage in the upper Missouri River basin is caused by early life stage mortality rather than by lack of successful spawning.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Making Recursive Bayesian inference accessible

Bayesian models provide recursive inference naturally because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information. However, popular use of Bayesian methods often avoids priors that are based on exact posterior distributions resulting from former studies. Two existing Recursive Bayesian methods are: Prior- and Proposal-Recursive Bayes. Prior-Recursive Bayes uses Bayesian updating, fitting models to partitions of data sequentially, and provides a way to accommodate new data as they become available using the posterior from the previous stage as the prior in the new stage based on the latest data. ProposalRecursive Bayes is intended for use with hierarchical Bayesian models and uses a set of transient priors in first stage independent analyses of the data partitions. The second stage of Proposal-Recursive Bayes uses the posteriors from the first stage as proposals in an MCMC algorithm to fit the full model. We combine Prior- and Proposal-Recursive concepts to fit any Bayesian model, and often with computational improvements. We demonstrate our method with two case studies. Our approach has implications for big data, streaming data, and optimal adaptive design situations.

American Statistician↗

Deconstructing the microbial necromass continuum to inform soil carbon sequestration

Microbial necromass is a large, dynamic and persistent component of soil organic carbon, the dominant terrestrial carbon pool. Quantification of necromass carbon stocks and its susceptibility to global change is becoming standard practice in soil carbon research. However, the typical proxies used for necromass carbon do not reveal the dynamic nature of necromass carbon flows and transformations within soil that ultimately determine necromass persistence. In this review, we define and deconstruct four stages of the necromass continuum: production, recycling, stabilization and destabilization. Current understanding of necromass dynamics is described for each continuum stage. We highlight recent advances, methodological limitations and knowledge gaps which need to be addressed to determine necromass pool sizes and transformations. We discuss the dominant controls on necromass process rates and aspects of soil microscale structure including biofilms and food web interactions. The relative importance of each stage of the continuum is then compared in contrasting ecosystems and for climate change drivers. From the perspective of the continuum, we draw three conclusions to inform future research. First, controls on necromass persistence are more clearly defined when viewed through the lens of the continuum; second, destabilization is the least understood stage of the continuum with recycling also poorly evidenced outside of a few ecosystems; and third, the response of necromass process rates to climate change is unresolved for most continuum stages and ecosystems. Future mechanistic research focused on the role of biotic and abiotic soil microscale structure in determining necromass process rates and the relative importance of organo–mineral and organo–organo interactions can inform necromass persistence in different climate change scenarios. Our review demonstrates that deconstructing the necromass continuum is key to predicting the vulnerability and persistence of necromass carbon in a changing world.

Functional Ecology↗

Ontogenetic development of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) and shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) from hatch through yolk absorption

Sturgeons have a complex free-embryo period extending from hatch to the initiation of exogenous feeding. Although available for some sturgeon species of the genus Acipenser , descriptions of the developmental stages of free embryos of the genus Scaphirhynchus are lacking. We characterised the ontogenetic development of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) and shovelnose sturgeon ( S . platorynchus ) free embryos from hatch through melanin plug expulsion. The rate of development was similar between Scaphirhynchus species among free embryos from 4 pallid sturgeon and 7 shovelnose sturgeon crosses reared separately in the laboratory at a mean temperature of 17.8°C. Free embryos required a mean of 18.2 days postfertilisation (DPF; 323.5 cumulative thermal units; CTU) to reach melanin plug expulsion for pallid sturgeon and 17.9 DPF (318.3 CTU) for shovelnose sturgeon. Free embryos of both species showed overlap in lengths among developmental stages indicating that length of free embryos alone is insufficient to estimate age. Description of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon free-embryo development provides a template to develop more sophisticated models incorporating length and stage to estimate the age of field-collected specimens. Improved estimates of free-embryo developmental stage and age may aid in the identification of timing and location of spawning and better inform flow manipulation and habitat management actions tailored to increase survival of early life-stage pallid sturgeon.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

Adult spawners: A critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate

Concurrent, distribution-wide abundance declines of some Pacific salmon species, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), highlights the need to understand how vulnerability at different life stages to climate stressors affects population dynamics and fisheries sustainability. Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks are among the largest subarctic populations, near the northernmost extent of the species range. Existing research suggests that Yukon River Chinook salmon population dynamics are largely driven by factors occurring between the adult spawner life stage and their offspring's first summer at sea (second year post-hatching). However, specific mechanisms sustaining chronic poor productivity are unknown, and there is a tremendous sense of urgency to understand causes, as declines of these stocks have taken a serious toll on commercial, recreational, and indigenous subsistence fisheries. Therefore, we leveraged multiple existing datasets spanning parent and juvenile stages of life history in freshwater and marine habitats. We analyzed environmental data in association with the production of offspring that survive to the marine juvenile stage (juveniles per spawner). These analyses suggest more than 45% of the variability in the production of juvenile Chinook salmon is associated with river temperatures or water discharge levels during the parent spawning migration. Over the past two decades, parents that experienced warmer water temperatures and lower discharge in the mainstem Yukon River produced fewer juveniles per spawning adult. We propose the adult spawner life stage as a critical period regulating population dynamics. We also propose a conceptual model that can explain associations between population dynamics and climate stressors using independent data focused on marine nutrition and freshwater heat stress. It is sobering to consider that some of the northernmost Pacific salmon habitats may already be unfavorable to these cold-water species. Our findings have immediate implications, given the common assumption that northern ranges of Pacific salmon offer refugia from climate stressors.

Alaska↗

Gender identification of shovelnose sturgeon using ultrasonic and endoscopic imagery and the application of the method to the pallid sturgeon

Monthly sampling of shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, a biological surrogate for the endangered pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus, was conducted to develop a multiseasonal profile of reproductive stages. Data collected included histological characteristics of gonads from wild caught fish and laboratory and field ultrasonic and endoscopic images. These data were used to compare effectiveness of ultrasonic and endoscopic techniques at identifying gender of adult shovelnose sturgeon at different reproductive stages. The least invasive method (i.e. ultrasound) was least effective while the most invasive (i.e. endoscope through an abdominal incision) was the most effective at identifying shovelnose sturgeon gender. In most cases, success rate for identifying males was greater than females, with success at identifying both genders greater in more advanced reproductive stages. Concomitantly, for most months average reproductive stage was more advanced for males than females. April and May were the months with the most advanced reproductive stage, and were the months when ultrasound was most effective. Methods were also applied in the Upper Missouri River to validate their use on pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus. Ultrasound was successful at identifying pallid sturgeon gender, however, endoscopic examination through the urogenital duct was only successful at identifying pallid sturgeon gender when the urogenital duct was not opaque. ?? 2005 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Journal of Fish Biology↗