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USGS2021

Contrasting patterns of demography and population viability among gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations at the species’ northern range edge

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Alabama↗

USGS2017

Challenges for creating a site-specific groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010

Hydrologic budgets to determine groundwater availability are important tools for water-resource managers. One challenging component for developing hydrologic budgets is quantifying water use through time because historical and site-specific water-use data can be sparse or poorly documented. This research developed a groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010 that related county-level aggregated water-use data to site-specific well locations and aquifer units. A simple population-based linear model, constrained to 0 million liters per day in 1900, provided the best means to extrapolate groundwater-withdrawal rates pre-1950s when there was a paucity of water-use data. To disaggregate county-level data to individual wells across a regional aquifer system, a programmatic hierarchical process was developed, based on the level of confidence that a well pumped groundwater for a specific use during a specific year. Statistical models tested on a subset of the best-available site-specific water-use data provided a mechanism to bracket historic groundwater use, such that groundwater-withdrawal rates ranged, on average, plus or minus 38% from modeled values. Groundwater withdrawn for public supply and domestic use accounted for between 48 and 74% of total groundwater use since 1901, highlighting that groundwater provides an important drinking-water resource. The compilation, analysis, and spatial and temporal extrapolation of water-use data remain a challenging task for water scientists, but is of paramount importance to better quantify groundwater use and availability.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2014

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2021

Species mixture effects and climate influence growth, recruitment and mortality in Interior West USA Populus tremuloides-conifer communities

Tree-species mixture effects (e.g. complementarity and facilitation) have been found to increase individual-tree productivity, lessen mortality and improve recruitment in forests worldwide. By promoting more efficient and complete resource use, mixture effects may also lessen individual-tree-level water stress, thus improving drought resistance. We investigated the influence of mixture effects on tree productivity, mortality and recruitment across broad compositional and moisture gradients in high-elevation Interior West US mixed-conifer communities, where Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen) is the major contributor to functional diversity. Our goal was to provide a more complete scientific foundation for managing these drought-prone, fire-excluded systems under an uncertain climate. We used landscape-scale national forest inventory data to examine mixture effects on P. tremuloides and the major associated conifer species, Pseudotsuga menziesii , Pinus contorta , Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii . Using generalized linear mixed modelling, we isolated the influences of P. tremuloides relative density and climate on tree-level (stems ≥ 12.7 cm DBH) growth, mortality and stand-level recruitment (presence/absence of new trees). Cold-season precipitation (PPT) and warm-season vapour pressure deficit (VPD) served to represent soil moisture supply and demand, respectively. Populus tremuloides growth declined as interspecific density increased. In contrast, Pinus contorta and A. lasiocarpa growth increased with P. tremuloides density. For all species except A. lasiocarpa and P. menziesii, growth increased under higher PPT and VPD. Populus tremuloides mortality increased under high VPD but not with interspecific relative density. We found limited evidence that A. lasiocarpa mortality decreased as P. tremuloides density increased. Populus tremuloides recruitment declined steeply above 25% interspecific relative density. We found a decline in conifer recruitment odds as P. tremuloides density increased, ranging from strong in P. contorta to insubstantial in P. engelmannii . Synthesis . Our findings have implications for sustaining mixed-conifer communities impacted by climate change and historical fire exclusion. Mixtures of P. tremuloides and conifers may improve conifer growth while adversely impacting P. tremuloides growth relative to pure stands. Higher conifer productivity combined with lower P. tremuloides recruitment at high conifer relative density may accelerate succession.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2015

Selection of vegetation types and density of bison in an arid ecosystem

Understanding species habitat selection and factors that drive selection are key components for conservation. We report the first resource selection functions (RSFs) for bison inhabiting an arid ecosystem and use them with density estimates of bison to estimate the number of bison that could be supported if the bison range were expanded to federal lands in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. We derived RSFs for vegetation types using locations of plains bison collected weekly over 3 years from 2005 to 2007. Bison selected for wet or mesic grassland habitats in all seasons. Wetland selection by bison was predicted to be 18 times greater than that of rabbitbrush vegetation, the reference category, and selection of meadows was predicted to be 11 times greater than that of the rabbitbrush type. Willow-dominated plant communities were strongly avoided. Cottonwood communities were also avoided, with the exception of some moderate levels of selection in fall. The willow and cottonwood communities have an understory with low biomass of herbaceous species and low productivity in this arid system. Based on the RSFs we predicted that in the San Luis Valley of Colorado up to 2,379 bison could be supported in similar habitats under Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) jurisdiction, and up to 759 bison could be supported on adjacent National Park Service (NPS) land. This modeling framework provides a conservation tool for the restoration of bison to their historical habitats, and has utility for application to other terrestrial species where assumptions are met.

Colorado↗

USGS2008

Validation of daily ring deposition in the otoliths of age-0 channel catfish

We developed and validated methods for estimating the daily age of age-0 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Two clutches of channel catfish eggs were hatched in the laboratory; subsequently, one was stocked in a 186-m2 earthen nursery pond and the other in a 757-L outdoor circular tank. Before stocking, subsamples of fish were collected at swim-up and 3 d after swim-up to evaluate early ring formation. Fish were sampled from the pond and tank on eight occasions ranging from 30 to 119 d posthatch. Distinct differences in early ring formation were found between yolk sac and free-swimming larval stages. Mean ring count and known age were closely related for tank- and pond-raised fish, indicating that daily ring deposition occurred in the otoliths of age-0 channel catfish up to 119 d posthatch. The accuracy of daily age estimation was similar between tank and pond samples, and daily ring counts were considerably accurate up to 60 d posthatch. Pond-raised fish were more difficult to age than tank-raised fish, which we attributed to ring compression resulting from slower growth among pond-raised fish after 30 d. The total length of tank- and pond-raised fish was positively related to otolith size; however, the slopes of the relationships between fish length and otolith radius were different between treatments. Therefore, we could not confirm that the relationship between fish length and otolith size was directly proportional for age-0 channel catfish. We encourage researchers to use this aging technique to determine how abiotic and biotic factors influence early life history characteristics and ultimately the population dynamics of catfishes (Ictaluridae). ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2014

Using spatial resampling to assess redd count survey length requirements for Pacific Lamprey

Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus has declined across its range along the West Coast of North America, and an understanding of all life history phases is needed to address population recovery. Spawning surveys (redd counts) are common tools currently used to monitor returning adult salmonids, but such methodologies are in their infancy for Pacific Lamprey. Our objective was to assess the minimum spawning survey distance required to detect the presence of Pacific Lamprey redds and obtain precise redd density estimates from these data. To do this, we statistically resampled existing spawning locations of Pacific Lamprey collected during spawning surveys in four streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, during spring of 2013. We found that the minimum survey distance for Pacific Lamprey redd detection was inversely related to the observed redd density and was always less than 1.2 km. Survey distance requirements to obtain precise redd counts (±20% of observed redd densities) were also inversely related to redd density and habitat availability, and varied between 1.3 km and 13.7 km. Our results suggest that spawning surveys are a potential tool for monitoring adult Pacific Lamprey abundance, but the specific objectives of the monitoring programs and acknowledgment of unknowns must be considered prior to implementation into recovery plans.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Northern bobwhites select for native grasses on working grazing land

Northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; bobwhite) populations have experienced an 85% decline across most of its range since the 1960s. The most drastic decreases have been in the southeastern United States where biologists attribute the decline to widespread habitat loss, including conversion of native grasslands to tall fescue ( Lolium arundinaceum ) and other exotic cool-season grass (CSG) pasture and hayfields. Including agricultural lands in conservation programs could improve habitat conditions on a regional scale. One working-lands conservation strategy involves the use of native warm-season grasses (NWSGs) rather than cool-season exotic grasses as economically viable cattle forage. To evaluate this management practice for creating bobwhite habitat, we conducted a field study on a bobwhite population in eastern Kentucky, USA, where grazed NWSG and burned NWSG fields were adjacent to exotic grazed and exotic hayed CSG fields. Between April 2019 and October 2022, we used radio telemetry to track bobwhites to evaluate resource selection at second- and third-order scales. Bobwhites used traditionally managed CSGs less than would be expected by chance at the second-order scale in both breeding and non-breeding seasons. Bobwhite use of grazed NWSG and burned NWSG was greater than would be expected by chance at the second-order scale in both breeding and non-breeding seasons. Similarly, at the third-order scale, bobwhites used CSGs less than would be expected by chance, whereas NWSGs and woody stems were used more than by chance alone. Our study suggests that bobwhites select NWSGs at multiple spatial scales despite broad-scale availability of managed exotic CSGs. Under a working-lands framework, the integration of NWSGs into working lands could create bobwhite habitat in the southeastern United States, especially if woody stems are present.

Kentucky↗

USGS2007

Using conservation value to assess land restoration and management alternatives across a degraded oak savanna landscape

1. Managers considering restoration of landscapes often face a fundamental challenge - what should be the habitat composition of the restored landscape? We present a method for evaluating an important conservation trade-off inherent in making that decision. 2. Oak savannas and grasslands were historically widespread across central North America but are now rare. Today, in north-west Indiana, USA, habitats spanning a range of woody vegetation density, from nearly treeless open habitats to forests, occur across the conserved landscape where savannas probably once dominated. To understand the benefits of different potential landscape compositions, we evaluated how different proportions of five habitats - open, savanna, woodland, scrub and forest - might affect the conservation value of the north-west Indiana landscape for birds. Two variables of potential conservation importance were examined: species diversity, a measure of avian community richness, and conservation index, the percentage of a bird species' global population occurring on a hectare of landscape, summed across all bird species present. Higher values of conservation index were associated with higher local densities of globally more rare and more threatened species. 3. Conservation index and species diversity were correlated negatively across hypothetical landscapes composed of different proportions of the five habitats. Therefore, a management trade-off existed between conservation index and species diversity because landscapes that maximized species diversity differed from landscapes that maximized conservation index. 4. A landscape of 50% open, 22% savanna, 15% scrub and 13% forest was predicted to represent a compromise at which conservation index and species diversity reached the same percentage of their maxima. In contrast, the current landscape is dominated by forest. 5. Synthesis and applications. We quantified the trade-off between two potential aspects of a landscape's conservation value for birds - the landscape's ability to promote avian species diversity and the landscape's use by threatened avian species. This quantification allowed us to evaluate the ability of different landscape compositions to achieve preferable trade-off compromises, such as maximizing diversity for a given level of landscape use by threatened species. Managers can use these trade-off results to determine which landscape compositions are associated with particular conservation and management priorities.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2009

Identifying pathways and processes affecting nitrate and orthophosphate inputs to streams in agricultural watersheds

Understanding nutrient pathways to streams will improve nutrient management strategies and estimates of the time lag between when changes in land use practices occur and when water quality effects that result from these changes are observed. Nitrate and orthophosphate (OP) concentrations in several environmental compartments were examined in watersheds having a range of base flow index (BFI) values across the continental United States to determine the dominant pathways for water and nutrient inputs to streams. Estimates of the proportion of stream nitrate that was derived from groundwater increased as BFI increased. Nitrate concentration gradients between groundwater and surface water further supported the groundwater source of nitrate in these high BFI streams. However, nitrate concentrations in stream-bed pore water in all settings were typically lower than stream or upland groundwater concentrations, suggesting that nitrate discharge to streams was not uniform through the bed. Rather, preferential pathways (e.g., springs, seeps) may allow high nitrate groundwater to bypass sites of high biogeochemical transformation. Rapid pathway compartments (e.g., overland flow, tile drains) had OP concentrations that were typically higher than in streams and were important OP conveyers in most of these watersheds. In contrast to nitrate, the proportion of stream OP that is derived from ground water did not systematically increase as BFI increased. While typically not the dominant source of OP, groundwater discharge was an important pathway of OP transport to streams when BFI values were very high and when geochemical conditions favored OP mobility in groundwater. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2024

Processing time and precision of aging structures for Bighead Carp and Silver Carp in the lower Red River catchment in the southern Great Plains

Objective Population demographics of invasive species are commonly evaluated to better develop management actions that are useful for reducing their abundance or controlling the population. Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix are emblematic invaders in the United States, where they continue to expand their range. There is currently no consensus about which hard structure from these species is best for age estimation. Our study objective was to compare the processing time and precision of five hard structures used for age estimation of both species. Methods We sampled fish in the lower Red River catchment of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas during summer and autumn 2021–2022 and removed the lapillus otolith, left primary pectoral fin ray, postcleithrum, urohyal bone, and anterior-most pterygiophore of the dorsal fin from both Bighead and Silver carp. The structures ( n = 1204) were either embedded in epoxy or thin-sectioned and mounted on slides. Two readers estimated the age of the fish by using each structure and came to a consensus. Processing time was recorded from the onset of laboratory processing to the termination of polishing the cross sections for age estimation. Result Processing of otoliths was comparable to or faster than processing of the other structures and resulted in the highest between-reader agreement. The lowest coefficients of variation in age estimation were represented using lapillus otoliths for Bighead Carp and postcleithra for Silver Carp. Our age bias plots indicated that all other structures underestimated age relative to the lapillus otoliths. Conclusion Our results indicated that using lapillus otoliths for age estimation of these species would have the highest between-reader agreement and would incur no additional laboratory processing time. However, validation is needed to assess whether lapillus otoliths correctly age these species. From a management perspective, use of this structure would facilitate improved population comparisons.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2016

Effects of a growth check on daily age estimates of age-0 alligator gar

Accurate age and growth information is essential for a complete knowledge of life history, growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and average life span in fishes. Alligator gar are becoming increasingly managed throughout their range and because this species spawns in backwater flooded areas, their offspring are prone to stranding in areas with limited prey, potentially affecting their growth. Because fish growth is tightly linked with otolith growth and annulus formation, the ability to discern marks not indicative of annuli (age checks) in alligator gar would give managers some insight when estimating ages. Previous studies have suggested that checks are often present prior to the first annulus in otoliths of alligator gar, affecting age estimates. We investigated check formation in otoliths of alligator gar in relation to growth and food availability. Sixteen age-0 alligator gar were marked with oxytetracycline (OTC) to give a reference point and divided equitably into two groups: a control group with abundant prey and an experimental group with limited prey. The experimental group was given 2 g of food per week for 20 days and then given the same prey availability as the control group for the next 20 days. After 40 days, the gar were measured, sacrificed, and their sagittae removed to determine if checks were present. Checks were visible on 14 of the 16 otoliths in the experimental group, associated with low growth during the first 20 days when prey was limited and accelerated growth after prey availability was increased. No checks were observed on otoliths of the control group, where growth and prey availability were consistent. Age estimates of fish in the control group were more accurate than those in the experimental group, showing that fish growth as a function of prey availability likely induced the checks by compressing daily ring formation.

Journal of the Southeastern Association of Fish an↗

USGS2024

Following the tug of the audience from complex to simplified hazards maps at Cascade Range volcanoes

Volcano-hazard maps are broadly recognized as important tools for forecasting and managing volcanic crises and for disseminating spatial information to authorities and people at risk. As scientists, we might presume that hazards maps can be developed at the time and with the methods of our discretion, yet the co-production of maps with stakeholder groups, who have programmatic needs of their own, can sway the timing, usability, and acceptance of map products. We examine two volcano hazard map-making efforts by staff at the U.S. Geological Survey. During the 1990s and early 2000s scientists developed a series of hazard assessments and maps with detailed zonations for volcanoes in Washington and Oregon. In 2009, the National Park Service expressed the need for simplified versions of the existing hazard maps for a high-profile visitor center exhibit. This request created an opportunity for scientists to rethink the objectives, scope, content, and map representations of hazards. The primary focus of this article is a discussion of processes used by scientists to distill the most critical information within the official parent maps into a series of simplified maps using criteria specified. We contextualize this project with information about development of the parent maps, public response to the simplified hazard maps, the value of user engagement in mapmaking, and with reference to the abundance of guidance available to the next generation of hazard-mapmakers. We argue that simplified versions of maps should be developed in tandem with any hazard maps that contain technical complexities, not as a replacement, but as a mechanism to broaden awareness of hazards. We found that when scientists endeavor to design vivid and easy-to-understand maps, people in many professions find uses for them within their organization’s information products, resulting in extensive distribution.

Washington↗

USGS2024

High genetic diversity, low population genetic structure, strong natal philopatry, and longevity revealed in the Black Swift (Cypseloides niger borealis)

Genetic diversity is a critical cornerstone of biodiversity and is a central goal in management and conservation biology. Such diversity has implications for survivability, adaptability, and resiliency of a species. This study aimed to determine levels of genetic diversity and population genetic structure in the Northern Black Swift ( Cypseloides niger borealis ). This species nests across western North America as far north as Canada and south into Mexico, migrating annually to wintering areas in western Brazil. Colonies occur in isolated areas where appropriate nesting habitat is available, and in many cases, colonies are widely separated from each other. Banding data revealed that adults of this long-lived species return to their same breeding colony annually for many years. Additionally, some females exhibit natal philopatry, returning to and successfully raising offspring at the colony where they were hatched. This allowed us to hypothesize that we might expect some amount of genetic structure in the samples we studied. The life history characteristics of this species suggest that breeding colonies might be more genetically differentiated than other migratory birds that tend to have limited population genetic structure across their ranges. We used newly developed species-specific microsatellite primers to examine levels of genetic diversity and connectivity among 6 Black Swift colonies in the western United States. Levels of genetic diversity were generally high (expected heterozygosity ranging from 0.67 to 0.75) and comparable across 3 breeding sites with sufficient sample sizes ( N > 5). Principal coordinates analysis and STRUCTURE analysis showed no real clustering of individuals in regard to colonies, suggesting one panmictic metapopulation rather than multiple populations that are genetically distinct as we had previously hypothesized based on banding data. This is the first study to elucidate the genetic structure among colonies of Black Swift.

Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Development and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms

Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (EDGR) was developed to predict the evolution of the primary foredune of a barrier island. Within EDGR, an island is represented as a sum of Gaussian shape functions representing dunes, berms, and the underlying island form. The model evolves the foredune based on estimated terminal dune height and location inputs. EDGR was assessed against observed dune evolution along the western end of Dauphin Island, Alabama over the 10 years following Hurricane Katrina (2005). The root mean square error with EDGR (ranging from 0.18 to 0.74 m over the model domain) was reduced compared to an alternate no-change model (0.69–0.96 m). Hindcasting with EDGR also supports the study of dune evolution processes. At Dauphin Island, results suggest that a low-lying portion of the site was dominated by overwash for ~5 years after Katrina, before approaching their terminal height and becoming growth-limited after 2010. EDGR’s computational efficiency allows dune evolution to be rapidly predicted and enables ensemble predictions to constrain the uncertainty that may result if terminal dune characteristics are unknown. In addition, EDGR can be coupled with an external model for estimating dune erosion and/or the long-term evolution of other subaerial features to allow decadal-scale prediction of barrier island evolution.

Alabama↗

USGS2017

Developing an effective Agassiz's Desert Tortoise monitoring program: Final report to the Coachella Valley Conservation Commission

Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a conservation-reliant species with populations north and west of the Colorado River protected as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (Averill-Murray et al. 2012). Since it was listed under this category in 1990, a great deal has been learned about the natural history of the species, and it is now one of the best-studied turtles in the United States (Lovich and Ennen 2013). However, the accumulated body of scientific data available for the species has not yet been translated into recovery or delisting of the species. Successful conservation of any species requires knowledge of their natural history and how vital rates affect their ability to maintain stable populations in the face of natural and anthropogenic stresses. Agassiz’s desert tortoises occur from southwestern Utah to near the Mexican border in California – a distance of over 450 km – but population densities vary greatly across this immense landscape (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2015). Tortoises occur in the Sonoran Desert of California, including the eastern and western ends of the Coachella Valley, where it is one of 27 species covered under the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan and Natural Community Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP/NCCP). The southern portion of Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) lies within this 1.1 million acre planning area, and was predicted to be an area of low-density tortoise populations using habitat suitability modeling (Barrows 2011). JTNP is near the southern distributional limit of G. agassizii, yet very little has been published regarding the ecology of tortoises in the Sonoran Desert of California. Reproductive output is an important gross measure of the ability of a population to persist. When integrated with data on fertility and survivorship, this information forms a foundation for assessing population status and formulating effective management strategies (e.g., Congdon et al. 1993, 1994), especially for imperiled species. One aspect of the biology of G. agassizii that has been particularly well-studied is reproductive output. However, most of what we know about this topic comes from research in the Mojave Desert portion of the species’ range (Ernst and Lovich 2009). Comparatively little has been published on the reproductive ecology of populations living in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of California. Publications by Lovich et al. (1999, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) constitute the main body of literature on desert tortoise reproductive ecology in the Sonoran Desert of California, with one study population located at the western end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Collecting data on Agassiz’s desert tortoise ecology in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem is important due to significant differences between the two adjacent desert ecosystems, especially the timing and amounts of annual precipitation, and their potential effects on reproductive output (e.g., Lovich et al. 5 2015). There are also differences in the vulnerability of tortoises to the effects of a warming, drying climate between the two deserts (Barrows 2011; Zylstra et al. 2012). The overall goal of this study was to collect data on demography, reproductive output, and genetic affinities at a study site in the Sonoran Desert portion of JTNP in the eastern end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Specific objectives included: 1) Collect data to establish baselines on tortoise populations and/or their habitat suitability in core habitat within the CVNCCP area, including biotic and abiotic variables affecting persistence of tortoise populations; 2) Compare and contrast with data collected on desert tortoises at USGS/BLM study site near Palm Springs over 16 years; 3) Support long-term modeling efforts needed to determine tortoise population viability; 4) Refine modeled relationships with identified threats such as fire, invasive species and climate change; and 5) Prioritize adaptive management needs for the desert tortoise in and beyond the CVNCCP area. The data from this study will aid in determining baseline estimates of the desert tortoise population size within the planning area as well as establish a marked population of Agassiz’s desert tortoises for future monitoring. Data will be integrated with habitat modeling in order to refine model output. Genetic data will be collected on both the north and south sides of Interstate 10 to determine the potential effects of habitat fragmentation and genetic mixing. Analyses are ongoing and results beyond those presented in this report will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals following inclusion of additional data collected on the south side of Shavers Valley in 2017-2018.

Report↗

USGS2021

Growth of greater white-fronted goose goslings relates to population dynamics at multiple scales

The abundance of greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons frontalis ) on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska, USA, has more than tripled since the late 1990s; however, recent rate of annual population growth has declined as population size increased, which may indicate white-fronted geese on the ACP are approaching carrying capacity. We examined rates of gosling growth in greater white-fronted geese at 3 sites on the ACP during 2012–2014 to assist with predictions of future population trends and assess evidence for density-dependent constraints on recruitment. We marked goslings at hatch with individually coded webtags and conducted brood drives during early August to capture, measure, and weigh goslings. Annual estimates of gosling mass at 32 days old (range = 1,190–1,685) indicate that goslings had obtained >60% of asymptotic size. This rate of growth corresponds with that of other goose species and populations with access to high-quality forage and no limitations on forage availability, and is consistent with the overall increase in abundance of white-fronted geese at the ACP scale. Contrary to most previous investigations, age-adjusted mass of goslings did not decline with hatch date. Goslings grew faster in coastal areas than at inland freshwater sites. Taken together, these findings suggest forage was not limiting gosling growth rates in either ecosystem, but forage was of greater quality in coastal areas where goose foraging habitat is expanding because of permafrost subsidence. Spatial patterns of gosling growth corresponded with local-scale patterns of population density and population change; the areas with greatest rates of gosling growth were those with the greatest population density and rates of population increase. We found little evidence to suggest forage during brood rearing was limiting population increase of white-fronted geese on the ACP. Factors responsible for the apparent slowing of ACP-wide population growth are likely those that occur in stages of the annual cycle outside of the breeding grounds.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

Endangered Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas ( Loxops coccineus ) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Kaʻū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha ) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ʻĀkepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ʻōhiʻa and koa ( Acacia koa ) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ʻōhiʻa woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.

Hawai'i↗