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Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model ( Petersen et al. , 2016 ) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b =1.0 rather than the full catalog with b =1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6 g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north‐central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high‐hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north‐central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3‐ to 10‐fold higher near some areas of active‐induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Annualized earthquake loss estimates for California and their sensitivity to site amplification

Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by VS30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 VS30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7 billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates among the three sensitivity cases for smaller geographic units.

California↗

Variation in δ 13 C and δ 15 N diet–vibrissae trophic discrimination factors in a wild population of California sea otters

The ability to quantify dietary inputs using stable isotope data depends on accurate estimates of isotopic differences between a consumer (c) and its diet (d), commonly referred to as trophic discrimination factors (TDFs) and denoted by Δ c-d . At present, TDFs are available for only a few mammals and are usually derived in captive settings. The magnitude of TDFs and the degree to which they vary in wild populations is unknown. We determined δ 13 C and δ 15 N TDFs for vibrissae (i.e., whiskers), a tissue that is rapidly becoming an informative isotopic substrate for ecologists, of a wild population of sea otters for which individual diet has been quantified through extensive observational study. This is one of the very few studies that report TDFs for free-living wild animals feeding on natural diets. Trophic discrimination factors of 2.2‰ ± 0.7‰ for δ 13 C and 3.5‰ ± 0.6‰ for δ 15 N (mean ± SD) were similar to those reported for captive carnivores, and variation in individual δ 13 C TDFs was negatively but significantly related to sea urchin consumption. This pattern may relate to the lipid-rich diet consumed by most sea otters in this population and suggests that it may not be appropriate to lipid-extract prey samples when using the isotopic composition of keratinaceous tissues to examine diet in consumers that frequently consume lipid-rich foods, such as many marine mammals and seabirds. We suggest that inherent variation in TDFs should be included in isotopically based estimates of trophic level, food chain length, and mixing models used to quantify dietary inputs in wild populations; this practice will further define the capabilities and limitations of isotopic approaches in ecological studies.

Ecological Applications↗

Denitrification across landscapes and waterscapes: A synthesis

Denitrification is a critical process regulating the removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) from natural and human-altered systems. While it has been extensively studied in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, there has been limited communication among denitrification scientists working in these individual systems. Here, we compare rates of denitrification and controlling factors across a range of ecosystem types. We suggest that terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems in which denitrification occurs can be organized along a continuum ranging from (1) those in which nitrification and denitrification are tightly coupled in space and time to (2) those in which nitrate production and denitrification are relatively decoupled. In aquatic ecosystems, N inputs influence denitrification rates whereas hydrology and geomorphology influence the proportion of N inputs that are denitrified. Relationships between denitrification and water residence time and N load are remarkably similar across lakes, river reaches, estuaries, and continental shelves. Spatially distributed global models of denitrification suggest that continental shelf sediments account for the largest portion (44%) of total global denitrification, followed by terrestrial soils (22%) and oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs; 14%). Freshwater systems (groundwater, lakes, rivers) account for about 20% and estuaries 1% of total global denitrification. Denitrification of land-based N sources is distributed somewhat differently. Within watersheds, the amount of land-based N denitrified is generally highest in terrestrial soils, with progressively smaller amounts denitrified in groundwater, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and estuaries. A number of regional exceptions to this general trend of decreasing denitrification in a downstream direction exist, including significant denitrification in continental shelves of N from terrestrial sources. Though terrestrial soils and groundwater are responsible for much denitrification at the watershed scale, per-area denitrification rates in soils and groundwater (kg N·km −2 ·yr −1 ) are, on average, approximately one-tenth the per-area rates of denitrification in lakes, rivers, estuaries, continental shelves, or OMZs. A number of potential approaches to increase denitrification on the landscape, and thus decrease N export to sensitive coastal systems exist. However, these have not generally been widely tested for their effectiveness at scales required to significantly reduce N export at the whole watershed scale.

Ecological Applications↗

Terrestrial carbon is a resource, but not a subsidy, for lake zooplankton

Inputs of terrestrial organic carbon (t-OC) into lakes are often considered a resource subsidy for aquatic consumer production. Although there is evidence that terrestrial carbon can be incorporated into the tissues of aquatic consumers, its ability to enhance consumer production has been debated. Our research aims to evaluate the net effect of t-OC input on zooplankton. We used a survey of zooplankton production and resource use in ten lakes along a naturally occurring gradient of t-OC concentration to address these questions. Total and group-specific zooplankton production was negatively related to t-OC. Residual variation in zooplankton production that was not explained by t-OC was negatively related to terrestrial resource use (allochthony) by zooplankton. These results challenge the designation of terrestrial carbon as a resource subsidy; rather, the negative effect of reduced light penetration on the amount of suitable habitat and the low resource quality of t-OC appear to diminish zooplankton production. Our findings suggest that ongoing continental-scale increases in t-OC concentrations of lakes will likely have negative impacts on the productivity of aquatic food webs.

Michigan;Wisconsin↗

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, USA, 78 sites in 9 watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

Virginia↗

Development of a mercury speciation, fate, and biotic uptake (BIOTRANSPEC) model: Application to Lahontan Reservoir (Nevada, USA)

A mathematically linked mercury transport, speciation, kinetic, and simple biotic uptake (BIOTRANSPEC) model has been developed. An extension of the metal transport and speciation (TRANSPEC) model, BIOTRANSPEC estimates the fate and biotic uptake of inorganic (Hg(II)), elemental (Hg(0)) and organic (MeHg) forms of mercury and their species in the dissolved, colloidal (e.g., dissolved organic matter [DOM]), and particulate phases of surface aquatic systems. A pseudo-steady state version of the model was used to describe mercury dynamics in Lahontan Reservoir (near Carson City, NV, USA), where internal loading of the historically deposited mercury is remobilized, thereby maintaining elevated water concentrations. The Carson River is the main source of total mercury (THg), of which more than 90% is tightly bound in a gold-silver-mercury amalgam, to the system through loadings in the spring, with negligible input from the atmospheric deposition. The speciation results suggest that aqueous species are dominated by Hg-DOM, Hg(OH)2, and HgClOH. Sediment-to-water diffusion of MeHg and Hg-DOM accounts for approximately 10% of total loadings to the water column. The water column acts as a net sink for MeHg by reducing its levels through two competitive processes: Uptake by fish, and net MeHg demethylation. Although reservoir sediments produce significant amounts of MeHg (4 g/d), its transport from sediment to water is limited (1.6 g/d), possibly because of its adsorption on metal oxides of iron and manganese at the sediment-water interface. Fish accumulate approximately 45% of the total MeHg mass in the water column, and 9% of total MeHg uptake by fish leaves the system because of fishing. Results from this new model reiterate the previous conclusion that more than 90% of THg input is retained in sediment, which perpetuates elevated water concentrations.

Nevada↗

Benthic nutrient sources to hypereutrophic Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, USA

Three collecting trips were coordinated in April, May, and August 2006 to sample the water column and benthos of hypereutrophic Upper Klamath Lake (OR, USA) through the annual cyanophyte bloom of Aphanizomenon flos‐aquae . A pore‐water profiler was designed and fabricated to obtain the first high‐resolution (centimeter‐scale) estimates of the vertical concentration gradients of macro‐ and micronutrients for diffusive‐flux determinations. A consistently positive benthic flux for soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) was observed with solute release from the sediment, ranging between 0.4 and 6.1 mg/m 2 /d. The mass flux over an approximate 200‐km 2 lake area was comparable in magnitude to riverine inputs. An additional concern related to fish toxicity was identified when dissolved ammonium also displayed consistently positive benthic fluxes of 4 to 134 mg/m 2 /d, again comparable to riverine inputs. Although phosphorus was a logical initial choice by water quality managers for the limiting nutrient when nitrogen‐fixing cyanophytes dominate, initial trace‐element results from the lake and major inflowing tributaries suggested that the role of iron limitation on primary productivity should be investigated. Dissolved iron became depleted in the lake water column during the course of the algal bloom, while dissolved ammonium and SRP increased. Elevated macroinvertebrate densities, at least of the order of 10 4 individuals/m 2 , suggested that the diffusive‐flux estimates may be significantly enhanced by bioturbation. In addition, heat‐flux modeling indicated that groundwater advection of nutrients could also significantly contribute to internal nutrient loading. Accurate environmental assessments of lentic systems and reasonable expectations for point‐source management require quantitative consideration of internal solute sources.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

In situ benthic nutrient flux and sediment oxygen demand in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, measured sediment oxygen demand (SOD) and benthic nutrient fluxes throughout Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. SOD was determined in situ using chambers equipped with optical dissolved oxygen sensors. The benthic nutrient fluxes of ammonia (NH3), nitrite + nitrate (plus ions; here, referred to as NO32), soluble reactive phosphorous (SRP), and dissolved silica (SiO2) were measured with in situ equilibrium dialysis samplers. Measurements were made at nine stations around the periphery and at three mid-Bay locations from August 2012 to October 2013. The SOD ranged from −1.5 to −8.4 g of oxygen (O2) m−2 d−1. The SOD rates varied as a function of water temperature and followed the van't Hoff rate equation for change in reaction rate with temperature, with a temperature coefficient (Θ) that varied among sites and averaged 1.083. The highest SOD rates in the bay were measured near the mouth of the Toms River embayment. Concentrations in the upper 1 m of sediment pore water were found up to 23 mg N L−1 for NH4+ and 6.7 mg P L−1 for SRP. Maximum measured fluxes into the overlying water were 3.0 × 10−2 g NH3–N m−2 d−1, 7.0 × 10−4 g NO32–N m−2 d−1, 1.9 × 10−3 g P m−2 d−1, and 3.6 × 10−3g SiO2 m−2 d−1. Using the measured benthic N and P fluxes, daily nutrient inputs derived from sediment recycling are shown to be comparable in scale to freshwater tributary inputs to the bay.

New Jersey↗

A computer model to forecast wetland vegetation changes resulting from restoration and protection in coastal Louisiana

The coastal wetlands of Louisiana are a unique ecosystem that supports a diversity of wildlife as well as a diverse community of commercial interests of both local and national importance. The state of Louisiana has established a 5-year cycle of scientific investigation to provide up-to-date information to guide future legislation and regulation aimed at preserving this critical ecosystem. Here we report on a model that projects changes in plant community distribution and composition in response to environmental conditions. This model is linked to a suite of other models and requires input from those that simulate the hydrology and morphology of coastal Louisiana. Collectively, these models are used to assess how alternative management plans may affect the wetland ecosystem through explicit spatial modeling of the physical and biological processes affected by proposed modifications to the ecosystem. We have also taken the opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art in wetland plant community modeling by using a model that is more species-based in its description of plant communities instead of one based on aggregated community types such as brackish marsh and saline marsh. The resulting model provides an increased level of ecological detail about how wetland communities are expected to respond. In addition, the output from this model provides critical inputs for estimating the effects of management on higher trophic level species though a more complete description of the shifts in habitat.

Louisiana↗

Nitrogen fluxes through unsaturated zones in five agricultural settings across the United States

The main physical and chemical controls on nitrogen (N) fluxes between the root zone and the water table were determined for agricultural sites in California, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, and Washington from 2004 to 2005. Sites included irrigated and nonirrigated fields; soil textures ranging from clay to sand; crops including corn, soybeans, almonds, and pasture; and unsaturated zone thicknesses ranging from 1 to 22 m. Chemical analyses of water from lysimeters and shallow wells indicate that advective transport of nitrate is the dominant process affecting the flux of N below the root zone. Vertical profiles of (i) nitrogen species, (ii) stable isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen, and (iii) oxygen, N, and argon in unsaturated zone air and correlations between N and other agricultural chemicals indicate that reactions do not greatly affect N concentrations between the root zone and the capillary fringe. As a result, physical factors, such as N application rate, water inputs, and evapotranspiration, control the differences in concentrations among the sites. Concentrations of N in shallow lysimeters exhibit seasonal variation, whereas concentrations in lysimeters deeper than a few meters are relatively stable. Based on concentration and recharge estimates, fluxes of N through the deep unsaturated zone range from 7 to 99 kg ha −1 yr −1 Vertical fluxes of N in ground water are lower due to spatial and historical changes in N inputs. High N fluxes are associated with coarse sediments and high N application rates.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Interaction and influence of two creeks on Escherichia coli concentrations of nearby beaches: Exploration of predictability and mechanisms

The impact of river outfalls on beach water quality depends on numerous interacting factors. The delivery of contaminants by multiple creeks greatly complicates understanding of the source contributions, especially when pollution might originate up- or down-coast of beaches. We studied two beaches along Lake Michigan that are located between two creek outfalls to determine the hydrometeorologic factors influencing near-shore microbiologic water quality and the relative impact of the creeks. The creeks continuously delivered water with high concentrations of Escherichia coli to Lake Michigan, and the direction of transport of these bacteria was affected by current direction. Current direction reversals were associated with elevated E. coli concentrations at Central Avenue beach. Rainfall, barometric pressure, wave height, wave period, and creek specific conductance were significantly related to E. coli concentration at the beaches and were the parameters used in predictive models that best described E. coli variation at the two beaches. Multiple inputs to numerous beaches complicates the analysis and understanding of the relative relationship of sources but affords opportunities for showing how these complex creek inputs might interact to yield collective or individual effects on beach water quality.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Whole-stream response to nitrate loading in three streams draining agricultural landscapes

Physical, chemical, hydrologic, and biologic factors affecting nitrate (NO 3 &minus; ) removal were evaluated in three agricultural streams draining orchard/dairy and row crop settings. Using 3-d &ldquo;snapshots&rdquo; during biotically active periods, we estimated reach-level NO 3 &minus; sources, NO 3 &minus; mass balance, in-stream processing (nitrification, denitrification, and NO 3 &minus; uptake), and NO 3 &minus; retention potential associated with surface water transport and ground water discharge. Ground water contributed 5 to 11% to stream discharge along the study reaches and 8 to 42% of gross NO 3 &minus; input. Streambed processes potentially reduced 45 to 75% of ground water NO 3 &minus; before discharge to surface water. In all streams, transient storage was of little importance for surface water NO 3 &minus; retention. Estimated nitrification (1.6&ndash;4.4 mg N m &minus;2 h &minus;1 ) and unamended denitrification rates (2.0&ndash;16.3 mg N m &minus;2 h &minus;1 ) in sediment slurries were high relative to pristine streams. Denitrification of NO 3 &minus; was largely independent of nitrification because both stream and ground water were sources of NO 3 &minus; Unamended denitrification rates extrapolated to the reach-scale accounted for <5% of NO 3 &minus; exported from the reaches minimally reducing downstream loads. Nitrate retention as a percentage of gross NO 3 &minus; inputs was >30% in an organic-poor, autotrophic stream with the lowest denitrification potentials and highest benthic chlorophyll a , photosynthesis/respiration ratio, pH, dissolved oxygen, and diurnal NO 3 &minus; variation. Biotic processing potentially removed 75% of ground water NO 3 &minus; at this site, suggesting an important role for photosynthetic assimilation of ground water NO 3 &minus; relative to subsurface denitrification as water passed directly through benthic diatom beds.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Low transient storage and uptake efficiencies in seven agricultural streams: implications for nutrient demand

We used mass load budgets, transient storage modeling, and nutrient spiraling metrics to characterize nitrate (NO 3 &minus; ), ammonium (NH 4 + ), and inorganic phosphorus (SRP) demand in seven agricultural streams across the United States and to identify in-stream services that may control these conditions. Retention of one or all nutrients was observed in all but one stream, but demand for all nutrients was low relative to the mass in transport. Transient storage metrics ( A s /A , F med 200 , T str , and q s ) correlated with NO 3 &minus; retention but not NH 4 + or SRP retention, suggesting in-stream services associated with transient storage and stream water residence time could influence reach-scale NO 3 &minus; demand. However, because the fraction of median reach-scale travel time due to transient storage ( F med 200 ) was &le;1.2% across the sites, only a relatively small demand for NO 3 &minus; could be generated by transient storage. In contrast, net uptake of nutrients from the water column calculated from nutrient spiraling metrics were not significant at any site because uptake lengths calculated from background nutrient concentrations were statistically insignificant and therefore much longer than the study reaches. These results suggest that low transient storage coupled with high surface water NO 3 &minus; inputs have resulted in uptake efficiencies that are not sufficient to offset groundwater inputs of N. Nutrient retention has been linked to physical and hydrogeologic elements that drive flow through transient storage areas where residence time and biotic contact are maximized; however, our findings indicate that similar mechanisms are unable to generate a significant nutrient demand in these streams relative to the loads.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Contrasting nitrogen fate in watersheds using agricultural and water quality information

Surplus nitrogen (N) estimates, principal component analysis (PCA), and end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) were used in a multisite comparison contrasting the fate of N in diverse agricultural watersheds. We applied PCA-EMMA in 10 watersheds located in Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Washington ranging in size from 5 to 1254 km 2 with four nested watersheds. Watershed Surplus N was determined by subtracting estimates of crop uptake and volatilization from estimates of N input from atmospheric deposition, plant fixation, fertilizer, and manure for the period from 1987 to 2004. Watershed average Surplus N ranged from 11 to 52 kg N ha −1 and from 9 to 32% of N input. Solute concentrations in streams, overland runoff, tile drainage, groundwater (GW), streambeds, and the unsaturated zone were used in the PCA-EMMA procedure to identify independent components contributing to observed stream concentration variability and the end-members contributing to streamflow and NO 3 load. End-members included dilute runoff, agricultural runoff, benthic-processing, tile drainage, and oxic and anoxic GW. Surplus N was larger in watersheds with more permeable soils (Washington, Nebraska, and Maryland) that allowed greater infiltration, and oxic GW was the primary source of NO 3 load. Subsurface transport of NO 3 in these watersheds resulted in some removal of Surplus N by denitrification. In less permeable watersheds (Iowa, Indiana, and Mississippi), NO 3 was rapidly transported to the stream by tile drainage and runoff with little removal. Evidence of streambed removal of NO 3 by benthic diatoms was observed in the larger watersheds.

Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Mississippi, Wa↗

Fishway Entrance Palisade

This technical report summarizes the work that was conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), along with other project partners, on the Fishway Entrance Palisade (EP), a projected funded through the Department of Energy’s (DOE) funding opportunity titled ‘Innovative Solutions for Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams’ (DE‐FOA‐0001662). The period of performance ranged from September 1, 2018 through September 30, 2021. The EP is a novel fish passage engineering technology designed to provide more favorable entry conditions for fish and to reduce costs relative to conventional fishway auxiliary water systems (AWS). The EP project has four primary components. First, the Northeast United States Auxiliary Water Systems Database was created (Northeast Fishway Auxiliary Water Systems Database Section). The database, developed with material provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, contains information on fishway type (e.g., lift, Denil, pool and weir) and Auxiliary Water System (AWS) details (e.g., water conveyance method, diffuser type) for 60 hydroelectric sites in the region. Findings indicate that nearly 4 out of every 10 fishway in the region is a fish lift and approximately 1 out of every 4 is a Denil ladder. The remainder are a mix of vertical slot fishways, pool and weirs, and Ice Harbor fishways. Furthermore, over half of all AWS systems use floor diffusers to discharge the auxiliary (or attraction) water into the entrance of a fishway, whereas only 14% use wall diffusers. Second, limited experiments on a conventional AWS with live, actively migrating fish were conducted at the USGS Easter Ecological Science Center (EESC) S.O. Conte Research Laboratory (Conventional Auxiliary Water System Experiments Section). This study determined how water velocity through a wall diffuser, without turning vanes or timber baffles to distribute the flow, affects the behavior and passage of adult American shad, a conservative surrogate species for migratory fish on the East Coast. Two gross diffuser velocity treatments were examined, 0.5 ft/s and 1.0 ft/s. These wall diffuser velocities represented current (0.5 ft/s) and past (1.0 ft/s) design criteria guidelines set forth by the USFWS North Atlantic-Appalachian Region (Rojas 2020; USFWS 2019). Six trials with a total of 151 American Shad were conducted in June of 2019 for the two treatments. No differences in American shad passage efficiency were discovered between the two treatments, while approximately 3 in every 4 attempts were successful at passing the diffuser. While these results may appear to indicate that the generally accepted gross wall diffuser velocity criteria for American shad of 0.5 ft/s could be safely increased to 1.0 ft/s, further analysis is warranted. Furthermore, it is unknown how other migratory and resident fish species that traverse these structures would be impacted by such a change. Studying the wall diffuser hydraulics led to an important AWS observation. Without turning vanes or timber baffles in this study, doubling the diffuser area was insufficient at producing the type of flow field change one may expect by halving the gross diffuser velocity. Instead, the flow fields throughout each treatments study area were similar, which led to similar results in shad performance. This not only highlights the importance of installing flow guidance devices like turning vanes, but also to the importance of properly maintaining them, which can be costly. Third, more expansive experiments on the novel EP were conducted in the spring of 2019 and 2021 (Fishway Entrance Palisade Experiments). The goal of this study was to determine how adult American shad responded to a variety of conditions at a full-scale EP. A total of six treatments were examined by changing the average auxiliary channel velocity between 1.0 and 5.0 ft/s in intervals of 1.0 ft/s and by inserting/removing an entrance gate at the opening of the fishway. Thirty trials with a total of 1,273 shad were conducted over the two years. In all treatments, at least ~7 out of every 10 fish successfully passed the EP diffuser and swam into the entrance channel within the 3.5-hour long trial, highlighting the general effectiveness of the novel AWS technology. In both study years, lower velocities through the EP diffuser led to increased shad performance, though performance peaked for the 2 ft/s velocity treatment. This treatment condition represents an approximate six-fold increase in gross diffuser velocity relative to conventional auxiliary water systems, which in turn presents opportunities for cost savings (e.g., reduction in diffuser size). Shad performance, in general, was worse in 2019 than in 2021, potentially due to the different run timing when our trials were conducted (2019 trials occurred near the end of the migration season, unlike in 2021). Treatments in 2019 had approximately a 20% reduction in entrance efficiency by the trial end, including a 16.7% drop for the 3 ft/s velocity treatment in 2019 relative to 2021 (the only carryover treatment between years). Lastly, adding an entrance gate caused a significant delay to entry. The time to 25% entry raised ~20 minutes from the near instantaneous 25% entry that was reported for the other treatments conducted in the same year (2021). Though by the end of the 3.5-hour trial, the overall entrance efficiency nearly matched those of the other 2021 treatments. The fourth and final component of the EP project was an economic analysis that focused on the cost of attraction and environmental flows (Modeling Power Generation Losses Due to Environmental and Fish Passage Attraction Flows at a Run-Of-River Hydroelectric Operation in the Northeast). The study assessed the economic impact of meeting environmental flow requirements at a representative hydroelectric facility and fish lift in the Northeast. An initial finding of the study was that there is a paucity of published data on the costs of meeting attraction and environmental flows. This is due, in part, to the proprietary nature of this data. To explore the costs associated with these flows, three types of environmental flows were assessed: upstream fishway attraction flows, downstream fishway attraction flows, and habitat maintenance minimum flows. A physics-based model was developed and calibrated with three years of hourly generation and flow data as inputs. Gage flow inputs were adjusted and used to calculate power generated. To address hydrologic variability, the model was executed to simulate 30 years of historical flows. Results indicate that both interannual and seasonal climatic factors impact the costs of meeting environmental flow requirements. Generation potential is most strongly curtailed during dry years in terms of maximizing the capacity factor (the percent of time a plant generates at capacity). Dry years, and especially dry summers, have the most significant costs associated with mitigation flows. Of the three types of flows, habitat flows are most costly in terms of power production, followed by upstream attraction flows. Downstream attraction flows are least costly. This finding is the likely result of differences in both flow rates and duration of the seasonal requirement for each flow. Overall, environmental flows represented a 2-12% loss in annual generation, but losses during a dry summer can reach over 20%.

Final Technical Report↗

Evaluating growth of the Porcupine Caribou Herd using a stochastic model

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions of potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1,000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89, r̄ = 0.013; 1989-92, r̄ = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89, r = 0.048; 1989-92, r = -0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r, followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds, or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change, would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847, or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472, would be sufficient to cause a declining population, if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates, in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation, to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations, optimize sampling investment, and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth.

Alaska↗

A computer program to trace seismic ray distribution in complex two-dimensional geological models

A computer program has been developed to trace seismic rays and their amplitudes and energies through complex two-dimensional geological models, for which boundaries between elastic units are defined by a series of digitized X-, Y-coordinate values. Input data for the program includes problem identification, control parameters, model coordinates and elastic parameter for the elastic units. The program evaluates the partitioning of ray amplitude and energy at elastic boundaries, computes the total travel time, total travel distance and other parameters for rays arising at the earth's surface. Instructions are given for punching program control cards and data cards, and for arranging input card decks. An example of printer output for a simple problem is presented. The program is written in FORTRAN IV language. The listing of the program is shown in the Appendix, with an example output from a CDC-6600 computer.

Final Report↗