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USGS2010

Changes in streamflow and the flux of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin, USA, 1980-2007

Nutrients and freshwater delivered by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers drive algal production in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which eventually results in the widespread occurrence of hypoxic bottom waters along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Researchers have demonstrated a relation between the extent of the hypoxic zone and the magnitude of streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi River, with springtime streamflows and fluxes being the most predictive. In 1999 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the flux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at selected sites in the Mississippi Basin and to the Gulf of Mexico for 1980-1996. These flux estimates provided the baseline information used by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force to develop an Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary goal of the Action Plan was to achieve a reduction in the size (areal extent) of the hypoxic zone from an average of approximately 14,000 square kilometers in 1996-2000 to a 5-year moving average of less than 5,000 square kilometers by 2015. Improved statistical models and adjusted maximum likelihood estimation using USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) software were used to estimate annual and seasonal nutrient fluxes for 1980-2007 at selected sites on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. These data provide a means to evaluate the influence of natural and anthropogenic effects on delivery of water and nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico; to define subbasins that are the most important contributors of nutrients to the gulf; and to investigate the relations among streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and the size and duration of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A comparative analysis between the baseline period of 1980-1996 and 5-year moving averages thereafter indicate that the average annual streamflow and fluxes of total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, and silica to the Gulf of Mexico have decreased. However, the flux of total phosphorus between the baseline period and subsequent 5-year periods has increased. The average spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and fluxes of silica, total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphate to the Gulf of Mexico also decreased, whereas the spring flux of total phosphorus has increased. Similar changes in streamflow and nutrient flux were observed at many sites Buxtonwithin the basin. The inputs of water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the major subbasins of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin as a percentage of the to-the-gulf totals have increased from the Ohio River Basin, decreased from the Missouri River Basin, and remained relatively unchanged from the Upper Mississippi, Red, and Arkansas River Basins. Changes in streamflow and nutrient fluxes are related, but short-term variations in sources of streamflow and nutrients complicate the interpretation of factors that affect nutrient delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. Parametric time-series models are used to try and separate natural variability in nutrient flux from changes due to other causes. Results indicate that the decrease in annual nutrient fluxes that has occurred between the 1980-1996 baseline period and more recent years can be largely attributed to natural causes (climate and streamflow) and not management actions or other human controlled activities in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. The downward trends in total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate that were detected at either the Mississippi River near St. Francisville, La., or the Atchafalaya River at Melville, La., occurred prior to 1995. In spite of the general decrease in nutrient flux, the average size of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone has increased between 1997 and 2007. The reasons for this are not clear but could be due to the type or nature of nutrient delivery. Whereas the annual flux of total nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, the proporti

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

USGS1998

Preliminary lithostratigraphy, interpreted geophysical logs and hydrogeologic characteristics of the 98th Street core hole, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Core samples, cuttings, and numerous geophysical logs obtained from the 1560 ft (475.5 m) core hole drilled at 98th Street on the west side of Albuquerque provide key stratigraphic and hydraulicproperty information for the upper clastic sediments of the Santa Fe Group, which form the principal aquifer in the region. The core hole and an adjacent water-level monitoring well were drilled cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the City of Albuquerque and investigated in collaboration with the New Mexico Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources and the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer to improve understanding of aquifer characteristics and controls on ground-water availability and quality. The 751.5 ft (229 m) of core samples recovered from the core hole are the only undisturbed samples of nonlithified sediments of the upper part of the Santa Fe Group that have been collected in this area. These samples have allowed us, for the first time, to directly observe and characterize the lithic and sedimentologic features of this part of the section, and to correlate the detailed geologic features with geophysical-log characteristics, magnetic susceptibility measurements, hydraulic variables, and trace-element geochemistry. The adjacent well was designed to be an areally representative ground-water level and water-quality monitoring well for the Santa Fe Group aquifer. This report chiefly addresses the lithologic, stratigraphic, and hydrogeologic features determined from the 98th Street core hole; other reports address related characteristics. Previous geologic studies predicted the stratigraphy at the site to be, from the land surface downward: 1) Quaternary alluvial and eolian valley-border sediments; 2) fluvial sand and gravel of the upper unit of the Santa Fe Group (Ceja Member of the Santa Fe Formation of Kelly, 1978; equivalent to the Sierra Ledrones Formation of Machette (1978a); 3) downward-fining basin-floor silty clay deposits and 4) fluvial sandy and silty facies of the middle unit of the Santa Fe Group (the Middle Red Member of Bryan and McCann, 1937, and Lambert, 1968). New geologic interpretations indicate that the drill site is in a fault block bounded by east-dipping normal faults and the oblique Atrisco-Rincon fault zone. Core-hole sampling recovered 760.6 ft (231.8 m) of core, in core segments 2.1-2.375 in. (5.3-6 cm) in diameter, and 0.2-10 ft (6.1 cm-3 m) long. The core hole was cased with centered 3-in. PVC casing, and is available for geophysical logging. The monitoring-well hole contains four piezometers at depths of 1544 ft (470.6 m), 1112 ft (338.9 m), 749 ft (228.3 m), and 458 ft (139.6 m). Sediments in the core are loose to weakly cemented gravel, sand, silt, and clay, and lithified sandstone. Laboratory analyses of particle-size distributions of 28 channel samples show that most silty sand samples are uniformly graded and poorly sorted; medium sand samples are moderately sorted. Six principal sediment types are used to describe the core; these sediment types are repeated in various combinations throughout the core and are used to define 22 lithologic units in the cored interval. The six principal sediment types contain sequences of beds having similar modal grain size and sedimentary structure, and are listed in decreasing abundance: 1) Silty fine sand, poorly sorted, containing a coarse silt matrix. Geophysical logs show highly variable baselines with deflections that are related to clay beds and sequences of silt, clay, and sorted fine sand. Density values of 2.12-2.25 g/cc and porosity values of 30-35 percent are typical. 2) Medium sand, moderately to poorly sorted. Geophysical logs show baselines of low variability with deflections that are related to clay beds and sequences of silt, clay, and sorted fine sand. Density values of 2.05-2.20 g/cc and porosity values of 30-35 percent are typical. 3) Clayey sandy silt, poorly sorted, locally microlaminated clay and silt, generally nonplastic. Geophysical logs show highly variable baselines with deflections that are related to sequences of clay and fine sand. Density values of 2.1-2.2 g/cc and porosity values of 30-40 percent are typical. 4) Silt and clay, characteristically red to reddish brown and medium to high plasticity, massive to indistinctly microlaminated. Geophysical logs show variable baselines with broad, high-amplitude compound spikes that are related to sequences of silt and fine sand. Density values of 2.12-2.25 g/cc and porosity values of >45 percent are typical. 5) Sand and gravel, poorly sorted. Geophysical logs show variable baselines with deflections that are related to sequences of silty and sorted fine sand. 6) Sandstone, fine-to-medium grained, poorly sorted, cemented chiefly by calcite, which fills the original pore space. Geophysical logs show density values >2.25 g/cc and porosity values <30 percent. The 22 lithologic units are correlated with recognized basin-floor fluvial lithofacies (Hawley, 1996), which include sand and gravel (lithofacies I), sand with lenses of pebbly sand, silt, and silty clay (lithofacies II), and interbedded sand, silt, and silty clay (modified lithofacies III, IV, IX). The sediments in the core hole are correlated with three informal lithostratigraphic units. The top unit, 0-19 ft (0-5.8 m) depth, consists of Quaternary eolian sand and valley-border alluvium. Coarsegrained deposits in the 19-97 ft (5.8-29.6 m) interval are correlated with the upper unit of the Santa Fe Group. The fine-grained section in the 97-787 ft (29.6-239.9 m) interval is correlated tentatively with the middle unit of the Santa Fe Group. This section contains thick sequences of laminated red and olivebrown clay and silt overbank deposits (441-787 ft) in the distinctive Atrisco member of Connell and others (1998). The Atrisco is correlated with fine-grained zones in numerous wells throughout the central Albuquerque metropolitan area, and is recognized as a zone that separates the upper Santa Fe aquifer from underlying middle Santa Fe deposits. The lower section of the middle unit of the Santa Fe, 787-1500 ft (239.9-457.2 m) depth, includes an upper sequence of moderately sorted channel-fill medium sand, and a lower sequence of sand, silt, and clay overbank deposits. The age of the cored interval is not known precisely. The upper Santa Fe gravel is related regionally to a through-flowing river system that was established in the Rio Grande rift valleys in Early Pliocene time, >4.5 MA. The middle Santa Fe unit is dated tentatively by correlation with a fossiliferous section, in which sandy beds that directly underlie the upper Santa Fe are Late Miocene (Hemphellian), 4.6- 8.9 MA. Further, the middle Santa Fe unit, with dominantly normal magnetic polarity, may have been deposited during closely spaced normal magnetic chrons 5.9-8.3 Ma. Four hydrostratigraphic units summarize the hydrogeologic framework for the 98th Street site: 1) Quaternary valley-border deposits, 2) upper Santa Fe sand and gravel deposits, 3) middle Santa Fe overbank deposits, and 4) middle Santa Fe channel-sand deposits. Empirical values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimated from core samples reveal a previously unknown contrast in hydraulic conductivity in the lowest two hydrostratigraphic units. Correlations among numerous wells show that the distinctively fine-grained Atrisco member, with estimated hydraulic conductivities (K) of <0.02-17 ft/day, is a laterally extensive barrier to vertical ground-water flow. The underlying unit that contains moderately sorted medium sand is a potential aquifer production zone that should be investigated further. Laboratory determination of vertical hydraulic conductivity values for fine-grained core samples range from 10 -2 to 10 -7 ft/day; recompacted sandy samples have K values of 1 to 10 -2 ft/day. Results of tests conducted with increasing effective stress show that K values of all samples decrease with decreasing porosity. Comparison of K values from laboratory, empirical, and calculated geophysical values shows discrepancies of 1-3 orders of magnitude (ft/day), indicating that additional analyses of core samples and geophysical data are necessary for future characterization of the Santa Fe Group aquifer.

New Mexico↗

USGS1985

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation, and surface area, as well as changes in water quality, that result from the proposed water management projects (upstream storage, upstream diversions, drainage canals) and the no action alternative. The Vegetation submodel determines associated changes in the areal extent of wetland and upland vegetation communities. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates indices of abundance or habitat suitability for colonial nesting birds (great egret, double-crested cormorant, white-faced ibis), greater sandhill crane, diving ducks, tundra swan, dabbling ducks, and Canada goose based on hydrologic and vegetation conditions. The model represents the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin, but provides water quantity and quality indicators associated with additional flows that might occur in the Malheur River Basin. Several management scenarios, representing various flood control alternatives and assumptions concerning future runoff, were run to analyze model behavior. Scenario results are not intended as an analysis of all potential management actions or assumptions concerning future runoff. Rather, they demonstrate the type of analysis that could be conducted if the model was sufficiently refined and tested. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. This workshop initiated interaction among the primary State and Federal resource and development agencies in a nonadversarial forum. The exchange of information and expertise among agencies provided the FWS with the best information currently available for use in the Planning Aid Letter it will develop at the Reconnaissance state of the COE study. If the COE subsequently initiates a Feasability Study, this information will be refined further and will aid the FWS in preparing its Coordination Act Report on any flood control alternative proposed by the COE. The model building and testing process also helped identify model limitations and more general information needs that should be evaluated for further study prior to preparation of an FWS Coordination Act Report. Major needs associated with the Hydrology submodel include a more detailed representation of hydrologic units (separately consider Harney Lake, Mud Lake, and Malheur Lake or the three hydrological units within Malheur Lake, rather than a combined lake system) and explicitly representation of groundwater storage and discharge in water budget calculations. A better representation of the hydrological units will require more detailed topographic data for the basin, capacity-elevation and elevation-surface area curves for each unit, and better water flow data between the units. Additional water quality parameters and constraints on proposed canal operation due to conditions in the Malheur River might also be added. Key Vegetation submodel needs include fine-tuning existing vegetation relationships in the model and adding relationships to address the influence of historical conditions on vegetation development, effects of very rapid changes in lake level, effects of wildlife populations (e.g., carp, muskrat), responses of vegetation to habitat management actions (e.g, haying, grazing, burning), and better representation of sago pondweed dynamics. A complementary geographic information system might also be developed for spatial analyses. Major needs that should be evaluated for the Wildlife submodel include addition of other wildlife species that have important effects on habitat on the Refuge (e.g., carp, muskrat) and consideration of additional life-cycle requisites and controlling variable for species presently in the model. Some of these limitations could perhaps be overcome if historical data on habitat conditions were developed to use with historical data on wildlife populations.

Oregon↗

USGS1989

Geology of the Arabian Peninsula; shield area of western Saudi Arabia

Western Arabia lies within the low-latitude desert of north Africa and the Middle East, the core being the Arabian segment of the African Shield. The core of complex basement rocks accounts for about 670,000 km 2 , or one-third of the Arabian Peninsula. Reconnaissance mapping of these crystalline rocks, together with bordering sedimentary rocks and volcanic flows, begun in 1950, resulted during the next 13 years in a series of geologic and geographic maps without extensive texts. The maps served as general guides for development of natural resources, including water supplies, ore deposits, and building materials. An intensive exploration program that began in 1963 and involved numerous geologists has vastly increased geologic information. Rainfall in Arabia is meager and episodic, and vegetation is sparse except in isolated copses on the crest of the Hejaz Range. Comparison of flora with similar species in the Sudan, where records of rainfall have long been kept, allows evaluation of mean annual precipitation. Wandering bedouin following fodder created a delicate balance between population and water supply-now disturbed by wells drilled in alluvium and lava fields. A trapezoidal region of Precambrian crystalline rocks lies along the northeast flank of the Red Sea, with two long prongs extending northwest and southeast for a total of 1,800 km. These basement rocks of the Arabian Shield are well exposed on the uplands, scarp mountains, and coastal pediments where the Phanerozoic cover rocks have been stripped as a result of Paleozoic epeirogeny and Tertiary ramping. The shield outcrops are divided into three tectonic provinces by N. 45°W.- trending shear zones of the Najd fault system of latest Proterozoic and possibly earliest Paleozoic time. The southwestern province, the 'Asir1 upland, was sharply uplifted and tilted to the northeast during the Neogene. The northwestern province, consisting of the Ash Shifa'- Hisma upland as well as Jabal Shammar farther east, similarly was uplifted and tilted. These two provinces are separated by the flat-lying median N ajd province, which is chiefly bounded by the principal Najd faults. The outcrops of the shield rocks are of the Late Proterozoic Eonupper Riphean to Vendian or Infracambrian epochs, including the Ediacarian System. The most reliable isotopic ages range from about 900 to 560 m.y., but some Middle Proterozoic rocks may be present in the easternmost shield. The rocks are divided into six lithostratigraphic sequences, two plutonic suites, and an ophiolitic suite. The mafic and ultramafic volcanic and plutonic rocks of the ophiolitic suite everywhere were emplaced tectonically and are probably of different ages in different places. Some ophiolite occurs as obducted blocks, but most is highly deformed and altered to serpentinite in fault zones that mostly define sutures between different tectonic blocks or terranes within the shield. Three of the lithostratigraphic sequences consist of mafic to silicic volcanic rocks and volcanic-derived clastic rocks which, with their subvolcanic plutonic rocks of a dioritic suite, probably formed in oceanic island arcs during convergent plate tectonism. These rocks make up the primary, or first-formed, crust of the shield. Chemical analyses show that the primary shield rocks, regardless of age, are principally calc-alkalic with some associated tholeiitic varieties. Most of the layered rocks are andesitic, but they range from basalt to dacite and in places contain intercalated pillow basalt, marble, chert, and carbonaceous or graphitic schist. Most of the plutonic rocks of the dioritic suite are dioritic, but they range from gabbro to trondhjemite and rarely contain potassium feldspar. The sequences and an associated dioritic suite become younger toward the eastern shield, that is, the primary crust of the shield youngs toward the east. Two western sequences consist of the Jiddah (Samran) and BaishBahah Groups and range in radiometric age from about 900 to 800 m.y.; the eastern sequence consists of the Halaban (Hulayfah) Group and ranges from 800 to about 700 m.y. During subsequent orogeny, most of the rocks were intensely deformed and mostly metamorphosed to upper greenschist facies, but rising in places to the almandine-amphibolite facies. Two other lithostratigraphic sequences with an associated plutonic granitic suite are the products of two mountain-building episodes during which the primary crust was greatly thickened and converted into craton. The two sequences, including largely the Ablah (Al Ays) and Murdama (Shammar) Groups, consist of abundant sedimentary rocks, commonly arkosic, that are the erosional products of the orogenic mountains. They are several thousand meters thick. Less abundant calc-alkalic to alkalic volcanic rocks, commonly dacitic and rhyolitic, are intercalated with the sedimentary rocks. The plutonic rocks of the granitic suite in association with both sequences have syntectonic and posttectonic phases, are products of the orogenies, and are the principal new ingredients making up the craton. Gneiss domes were a significant part of these cratonization orogenies. In association with orogenic crustal heating, some of the low-density, more silicic tonalitic and trondhjemitic rocks of the primary crust rose as gneiss domes. Partial melting in the middle or lower crust below the gneiss domes produced large volumes of granitic magma that intruded the gneiss domes as granodioritic batholiths. The Ablah Group and the older part of the granitic suite are about 775 to 740 Ma old and are associated with the Ablah orogeny and early cratonization in the western and earlier formed half of the shield. The Murdama (Shammar) Group and the younger part of the granitic suite are about 660 to 580 Ma old and are associated with the culminant orogeny and late cratonization that was shieldwide. The granitic suite during both orogenies consists of early, syntectonic granodiorite batholiths associated with the gneiss domes and late, posttectonic monzogranite plutons. Only during the culminant orogeny, late magmatic evolution produced syenogranite and alkali-feldspar granite commonly in circular and ring-structured plutons and with associated explosive volcanic deposits (Shammar Group); final products, some of which have economic potential, were peralkalic and peraluminous. The late plutonism of the culminant orogeny was distinctly bimodal in that subordinate gabbroic rocks are associated with the granites. Various building blocks or terranes of the andesitic and dioritic primary crust were collisionally agglomerated during the Ablah orogeny, early cratonization, whereas the entire shield as currently exposed was further collisionally accreted and compressionally consolidated during the culminant orogeny, final cratonization. Thousands of kilometers of oceanic crust had to be subducted in about 300 m.y. to form the large primary crust of the Arabian Shield. The inevitable collisional events during consumption of such a large volume of oceanic crust invariably led to numerous collisional orogenies that collectively encompass the widely known Pan African tectonic episode. The youngest lithostratigraphic sequence, the Jubaylah Group, is essentially postcratonic, although it is the end product of the collisional culminant orogeny. Final east-west compression of the entire shield from about 580 to 560 m.y. caused the craton to fracture along the large northwest-trending, left-lateral faults and elsewhere along lesser, northeast-trending, right-lateral, conjugate faults of the N ajd fault system. Erosional products of this more localized deformation were the sedimentary rocks of the Jubaylah Group, which also includes intercalated andesitic to basaltic volcanic rocks of a mafic alkalic compositional trend. The collisional edge of an old continental plate (or tectonic fragments thereof), suspected on the eastern edge of the Arabian Shield, has not been shown with certainty to be exposed. Presumably, widespread contamination from such an old continental crust affects U/Pb, Sm/Nd, Rb/Sr, and common lead ratios in the young plutonic rocks of the easternmost shield. One mass of anorthosite near Jabal Khida' on the central eastern edge of the shield may be a fragment of this old continental plate in that associated granodiorite may be as old as 1,600 to 1,800 Ma. Epeirogenic uplift, erosion, and cooling of the uppermost shield during Early and Middle Cambrian time is indicated by an average fission track age of 510±52 m.y., on sphene from diorite (hornblende K-Ar age of 615±12 m.y.) in the southwestern part of the shield. The hiatus was followed by extensive deposition of the Cambro-Ordovician Saq Sandstone in the north and northeast and the Wajid Sandstone in the southeast and south of the shield. The Cambrian Siq Sandstone had already been deposited in the northern part. During the middle and late Paleozoic, broad epeirogeny caused further erosion of the shield until marine transgression deposited the Upper Permian Khuff Formation at least in the eastern part of the shield. In the southwestern shield, the nonmarine Upper Triassic Khums Sandstone was deposited variably on Wajid or Precambrian rocks and is overlain by limestone of the middle Upper Jurassic Amran Formation. Except for shallow marine sandstone of problematic Cretaceous age deposited on the Amran Formation in the south.western shield and on Precambrian rocks in the northwestern shield, the younger beds on the shield are Paleocene and younger, with the possibility that the lowermost are upper Maestrichtian. The early Tertiary beds contain vertebrate fossils of coastal marine or estuarine environment 250 km east of the Red Sea in the central shield. Marginal marine sediments were deposited in a western tongue of the latest Tethys Sea as late as Eocene on the western shield and at least as far south as Jiddah. The great harrats of flood basalt erupted on th~ western shield during late Oligocene and early Miocene at the same time a 2,000-kmlong continental rift valley developed along the future Red Sea axis. Within this rift valley, Baid freshwater tuffaceous lakebeds were deposited between mafic and silicic volcanoes. During late early Miocene time, the Red Sea opened at a rate of 4.4 cm/yr in a firststage movement while continental dikes and swarms of oceanic tholeiitic dikes, gabbro, and granophyre plutonic rocks were intruded into the rift sedimentary and volcanic rocks at the newly formed continental margin. The continental margin was deformed and greatly extended at this time. About 14 or 15 m.y., as the first-stage spreading stopped, the Red Sea Escarpment rose; its erosion caused deposition of coarse conglomerate of the Bathan Formation. About 3,000 m of evaporite was deposited on the young Red Sea oceanic crust during the late Miocene desiccation crisis. A second stage of sea-floor spreading about 4-5 m.y. produced the Red Sea axial trough, consisting of oceanic crust, as well as renewed uplift and tilting of the three tectonic provinces in response to compression from counterclockwise rotation against the Dead Sea Rift. This late movement caused widespread major stream capture, especially along the wadis that formerly drained southwesterly or northwesterly, the channels turning westward through narrow gorges to the coastal plain and the Red Sea.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2003

Hydrology and water quality of Elkhead Creek and Elkhead Reservoir near Craig, Colorado, July 1995–September 2001

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, collected and analyzed baseline streamflow and water-quality information for Elkhead Creek and water-quality and trophic-state information for Elkhead Reservoir from July 1995 through September 2001. In the study area, Elkhead Creek is a meandering, alluvial stream dominated by snowmelt in mountainous headwaters that produces most of the annual discharge volume and discharge peaks during late spring and early summer. During most of water year 1996 (a typical year), daily mean discharge at station 09246400 (downstream from the reservoir) was similar to daily mean discharge at station 09246200 (upstream from the reservoir). Flow-duration curves for stations 09246200 and 09246400 were nearly identical, except for discharges less than about 10 cubic feet per second. Specific conductance generally had an inverse relation to discharge in Elkhead Creek. During late fall and winter when discharge was small and derived mostly from ground water, specific conductance was high, whereas during spring and early summer, when discharge was large and derived mostly from snowmelt, specific conductance was low. Water temperatures in Elkhead Creek were smallest during winter, about 0.0 degrees Celsius ( o C), and largest during summer, about 20–25 o C. Concentrations of major ions, nutrients, trace elements, organic carbon, and suspended sediment in Elkhead Creek indicated no substantial within-year variability and no substantial differences in variability from one year to the next. A seasonal pattern in the concentration data was evident for most constituents. The seasonal concentration pattern for most of the dissolved constituents followed the seasonal pattern of specific conductance, whereas some nutrients, some trace elements, and suspended sediment followed the seasonal pattern of discharge. Statistical differences between station 09246200 (upstream from the reservoir) and station 09246400 (downstream from the reservoir) were indicated for specific conductance, dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate, acid-neutralizing capacity, and dissolved solids. Trend analysis indicated upward temporal trends for pH, dissolved ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus at station 09246200; upward temporal trends for dissolved and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were indicated at station 09246400. No downward trends were indicated for any constituents. Annual loads for dissolved constituents during water years 1996–2001 were consistently larger at station 09246400 than at station 09246200, except for silica and sulfate. Mean monthly loads for dissolved constituents followed the seasonal pattern of discharge, indicating that most of the annual loads were transported during March–June. Annual dissolved nutrient loads at stations 09246400 and 09246200 were not substantially different, except for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads, which were smaller at the downstream station than at the upstream station, most likely due to biological uptake and settling in the reservoir. Mean annual suspended-sediment load during water years 1996–2001 was about 87-percent smaller at the downstream station than at the upstream station. Temperature in Elkhead Reservoir varied seasonally, from about 0 o C during winter when ice develops on the reservoir to about 20 o C during summer. Specific conductance varied from minimums of 138 to 169 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 o C (µS/cm) during snowmelt inflow to maximums of 424 to 610 µS/cm during early spring low flow (April). Median pH in the reservoir ranged from 7.2 to 8.0 at all sites near the surface. Median dissolved oxygen ranged from 7.1 to 7.2 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in near-surface samples and from 4.8 to 5.6 mg/L in near-bottom samples. During reservoir stratification, specific conductance generally was largest in the epilimnion, resulting from warm and relatively concentrated water from Elkhead Creek that was routed through the reservoir in the relatively warm epilimnion. The pH in the epilimnion generally increased from May to September, probably a result of algal productivity. In the hypolimnion, pH decreased slightly with depth in the July and September, probably a result of biomass decay processes and a lack of circulation during stratification. Concentrations of nutrients in both near-surface and near-bottom samples from Elkhead Reservoir were highest during snowmelt inflow (April–May). Total phosphorus concentrations in near-surface samples generally were largest during runoff, whereas total phosphorus concentrations in near-bottom samples generally were largest during July or September. Concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate in near-surface samples were substantially depleted by biological uptake during July, September, and October, compared to near-bottom samples. Variations in concentration of chlorophyll- a in near-surface samples were large during the growing season with peak seasonal concentrations during runoff or late summer and fall. Trophic state for Elkhead reservoir ranged from oligotrophic to eutrophic.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Discriminating silt-and-clay from suspended-sand in rivers using side-looking acoustic profilers

The ability to accurately monitor suspended-sediment flux in rivers is needed to support many types of studies, because the sediment that typically travels in suspension affects geomorphology and aquatic habitat in a variety of ways (e.g. bank and floodplain deposition, bar morphology, light penetration and primary productivity, tidal wetland deposition in the context of sea-level rise, sediment-associated contaminants, reservoir sedimentation and potential erosion during dam removal, among others). In addition, human-induced changes to the landscape have resulted in substantially altered suspended-sediment loads (Syvitski et al., 2005). Thus, accurate monitoring of suspended-sediment flux is necessary for informed resource management of rivers. Because of this need, a variety of techniques have been developed and applied for suspendedsediment monitoring. The traditional approach in the United States, which was developed and has been used extensively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is to collect an isokinetic, velocity-weighted sample from a river cross-section, analyze the sample in the laboratory, and use water-discharge records to compute a record of suspended-sediment flux (Guy, 1969, Guy, 1970, Edwards and Glysson, 1999, Porterfield, 1972). The labor and expense associated with this traditional approach is substantial such that the number of USGS gages reporting daily records of suspended-sediment flux decreased from 364 in 1981 to 120 in 2003 (Osterkamp et al., 2004). Also, the traditional sampling approach is limited with respect to the temporal resolution that can be achieved, thus requiring the use of approximate relations between suspended-sediment concentration and water discharge to fill gaps between samples. To address these limitations, several indirect or "surrogate" measures have been investigated (see e.g. Gray and Gartner, 2009) most notably optical backscatter (i.e. turbidity), laser-diffraction, and acoustic backscatter. These indirect techniques rely on measurements of ancillary properties that correlate with suspended-sediment concentration and particle size and thus require the collection of traditional samples for calibration. Through in situ deployments, these methods can provide the high temporal resolution that cannot be achieved through traditional sampling. Here we focus on the evaluation of acoustic profiling techniques (e.g. acoustic-Doppler sideways-looking profilers, or ADPs). One major advantage of acoustic profiling is the ability to concurrently measure water velocity (using Doppler-shift methods) and suspended-sediment concentration such that suspended-sediment flux can be directly computed using data from a single instrument. Acoustic-Doppler profilers have become popular for measuring water velocity and discharge in rivers, through both moving-boat operations and from fixed deployments such as bank-mounted sideways-looking instruments (Hirsch and Costa, 2004, Muste et al., 2007). The method presented herein is most suited to sideways-looking applications as a complement to the "index velocity" technique, whereby an index velocity from a sideways-looking instrument is related to the cross-section average velocity (determined from moving-boat discharge measurements) as a means for developing a continuous water-discharge record (Ruhl and Simpson, 2005). Topping et al. (2007) presented a method for discriminating silt-and-clay from suspended sand, using single frequency ADPs. This method takes advantage of the relations among acoustic backscatter, sediment-induced acoustic attenuation, suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), and particle size distribution (PSD). Backscatter is the amount of sound scattered back and received at the transducer while sediment-induced attenuation is the amount of sound scattered in other directions and absorbed by the sediment particles. Both of these parameters can be measured with an ADP, and their different dependencies on SSC and PSD allow for the discrimination of suspended silt-and-clay from suspended sand. Topping et al. (2007) describe application of the method at several sites along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, and herein we present an example application of the technique for the Gunnison River, CO. However, the methods general applicability in rivers has yet to be evaluated due to a lack of concurrent acoustic and sediment data at a range of sites. To this end, the objective of the analysis presented herein is to evaluate the potential general applicability of the method, drawing from the extensive USGS database on SSC and PSD. We refer to it as "potential" general applicability because it relies on the theory underlying the previous empirical results. Use of the theoretical relations is necessary due to the lack of concurrent ADP and SSC/PSD data, but also serves the additional purpose of providing further justification of the empirical calibrations developed for the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET). Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells. The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate. Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought. The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

The effects of management practices on grassland birds — An introduction to North American grasslands and the practices used to manage grasslands and grassland birds

The Great Plains of North America is defined as the land mass that encompasses the entire central portion of the North American continent that, at the time of European settlement, was an unbroken expanse of primarily herbaceous vegetation. The Great Plains extend from central Saskatchewan and Alberta to central Mexico and from Indiana to the Rocky Mountains. The expanses of herbaceous vegetation are often referred to as native prairie or native grasslands. Native grasslands share the characteristics of a general uniformity in vegetation structure, dominance by grasses and forbs, a near absence of trees and shrubs, annual precipitation ranging from 25 to 100 centimeters, extreme intra-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and a flat to rolling topography over which fires can spread. To the west of the Great Plains lie the sagebrush communities of the Great Basin, which extend from British Columbia and Saskatchewan to northern Arizona and New Mexico and from the eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges to western South Dakota. Sagebrush communities share similar characteristics to native grasslands, but their location east of the Rocky Mountains creates a more moderating influence from prevailing westerly winds that affect timing of peak precipitation and growth form of dominant vegetation. Native grasslands and sagebrush communities harbor a diverse array of grassland, wetland, and woodland plant and animal communities that are uniquely adapted to the natural forces of the Great Plains and Great Basin, namely the interactive forces of climate, fire, and grazing. The arrival of European settlers to North America brought profound change to native grassland and sagebrush communities, including the establishment of permanent towns and cities, the proliferation of cropland-based agricultural systems, and the suppression of wildfires. The near extirpation of bison by the 1860s paved the way for dramatic changes in the dominant grazers and a shift in the disturbance patterns that historically influenced vegetation structure. The greatest threat to native grasslands and sagebrush communities in modern times is their loss due to conversion to rowcrop agriculture and to urbanization. Concomitant with habitat loss is a precipitous decline in populations of bird species that evolved with, and are uniquely adapted to, the native grassland and sagebrush habitats. Avian population trends are linked strongly to agricultural land use. Besides outright loss of suitable breeding habitat, agricultural practices affect birds through factors such as pesticide exposure, habitat fragmentation, shifts in predator community composition, and occurrence of brood parasites. Bird populations face other stressors, such as loss of habitat to and behavioral avoidance of urbanized areas, roads, and infrastructure associated with energy production. Despite the many anthropogenic changes to North American grassland and sagebrush communities, some bird species are adaptable and opportunistic in their habitat selection and now utilize one or more human-created habitats. Human-created habitats include pastures, hayfields, agricultural terraces, crop buffer strips, field borders, grassed waterways, fencerows, road rights-of-way, airports, reclaimed coal mines, and planted wildlife cover. Fields of seeded grasslands enrolled in Federal long-term set-aside programs, such as the Conservation Reserve Program in the United States and the Permanent Cover Program in Canada, provide important nesting habitat for grassland bird species. The array of habitats used by birds makes habitat and avian management a complex undertaking, and the scale (for example, local, regional, international) at which management actions can be implemented are such that a universal approach to managing grasslands for the conservation of the entire suite of bird species does not exist. Experienced land managers recognize that it is impossible to manage for all bird species simultaneously, and thus, prioritization is necessary towards those habitats or bird species that the manager or management agency ranks highest for a specific region or management unit. The primary tools available for management are burning, grazing, mowing, herbicide application, and idling, but before choosing a particular practice, a manager will want to consider issues of seasonality, intensity, and frequency. Despite the thousands of studies that are cited in this compendium, much remains unknown about the effects of management practices on bird species. The series of species accounts in this compendium review the current state of knowledge regarding management of grassland and sagebrush bird species and summarize information on the effects of management practices on individual species. The accounts do not give definitive statements on the effects of management practices for any particular species, primarily because there are very few replicated studies in which identical management practices have been applied in the same geographical area with consistent results, which are elements necessary to provide concrete recommendations for the management of a particular species in a particular area. Documentation of the effects of management treatments on individual species through statistically sound methods that incorporate multiple years and locations will further scientists’ and land managers’ knowledge far more than 1–2-year studies that are limited in scope as well as time, but studies of that scope and breadth are rare.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2002

Preliminary hydrogeologic assessment and study plan for a regional ground-water resource investigation of the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces of North Carolina

Prolonged drought, allocation of surface-water flow, and increased demands on ground-water supplies resulting from population growth are focuses for the need to evaluate ground-water resources in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces of North Carolina. Urbanization and certain aspects of agricultural production also have caused increased concerns about protecting the quality of ground water in this region. More than 75 percent of the State's population resides in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces in an area that covers 30,544 square miles and 65 counties. Between 1940 and 2000, the population in the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Provinces increased from 2.66 to 6.11 million; most of this increase occurred in the Piedmont. Of the total population, an estimated 1.97 million people, or 32.3 percent (based on the 1990 census), relied on ground water for a variety of uses, including commercial, industrial, and most importantly, potable supplies. Ground water in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont traditionally has not been considered as a source for large supplies, primarily because of readily available and seemingly limitless surface-water supplies, and the perception that ground water in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces occurs in a complex, generally heterogeneous geologic environment. Some reluctance to use ground water for large supplies derives from the reputation of aquifers in these provinces for producing low yields to wells, and the few high-yield wells that are drilled seem to be scattered in areas distant from where they are needed. Because the aquifers in these provinces are shallow, they also are susceptible to contamination by activities on the land surface. In response to these issues, the North Carolina Legislature supported the creation of a Resource Evaluation Program to ensure the long-term availability, sustainability, and quality of ground water in the State. As part of the Resource Evaluation Program, the North Carolina Division of Water Quality, Groundwater Section, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, initiated a multiyear study of ground water in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces. The study began in 1999. Most of the study area is underlain by a complex, two-part, regolith-fractured crystalline rock aquifer system. Thickness of the regolith throughout the study area is highly variable and ranges from 0 to more than 150 feet. The regolith consists of an unconsolidated or semiconsolidated mixture of clay and fragmental material ranging in grain size from silt to boulders. Because porosities range from 35 to 55 percent, the regolith provides the bulk of the water storage within the Blue Ridge and Piedmont ground-water system. At the base of the regolith is the transition zone where saprolite grades into unweathered bedrock. The transition zone has been identified as a potential conduit for rapid ground-water flow. If this is the case, the transition zone also may serve as a conduit for rapid movement of contaminants to nearby wells or to streams with channels that cut into 1 U.S. Geological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina. 2 North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Water Quality, Groundwater Section. or through the transition zone. How rapidly a contaminant moves through the system largely may be a function of the characteristics of the transition zone. The transition zone is one of several topics identified during the literature review and data synthesis, for which there is a deficiency in data and understanding of the processes involved in the movement of ground water to surface water. Because the Blue Ridge and Piedmont study area is so large, and the hydrogeology diverse, it is not feasible to study all of the area in detail. A more feasible approach is to select areas that are most representative of the land use, geology, and hydrology to obtain an understanding of the hydrologic processes in the selected areas, and transfer the knowledge from these local "type areas" to similar regional hydrogeologic areas. For the purpose of this study, the term "type area" applies to a 10- to 100-square mile area within a hydrogeologic terrane where information is sufficient to develop and test a concept of ground-water flow by using analytical or numerical methods that can be validated by field measurements. Ideally, these type areas are selected to be representative of the flow system that is present wherever a particular hydrogeologic terrane is present. This report consists of two basic parts. The first part describes the results of a comprehensive review and synthesis of information and literature that provides the basic background for the study. This includes current (2002) knowledge regarding general geology and the hydrogeologic framework of the fractured-rock aquifer system that underlies the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces. In spite of the quantity of information identified during the literature review and the amount of past work that has been documented, there are still research needs to be met. The second part of the report describes State ground-water issues and problems, available data, and data deficiencies. It also describes the design and implementation of efforts to characterize ground-water quality and to quantify factors that influence the movement and availability of ground water in the hydrogeologic terranes characterized by (1) massive or foliated crystalline rocks overlain by thick regolith and (2) massive or foliated crystalline rocks overlain by thin regolith. As of September 2001, seven sites had been identified as potential study sites to be used to characterize the hydrogeology and water quality of ype areas considered representative of the larger terranes. Detailed geologic mapping, core drilling, well installation, and surface and borehole geophysical surveys are in progress at four of the sites.

North Carolina↗

USGS2016

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Colorado↗

USGS1957

Geology of possible petroleum provinces in Alaska

The history of petroleum exploration in Alaska and the geology of possible petroleum provinces in Alaska are reviewed. Maps showing Alaska's major Mesozoic and Tertiary tectonic elements, possible petroleum provinces, and indications of petrol, are included in this report. Annotated references in Geological Survey publications relating to petroleum and oil shale in Alaska are given at the end of the report. For the purpose of appraising its petroleum possibilities, Alaska is divided into the southern, central, and northern major geologic-physiographic regions. Southern Alaska includes the arcuate mountain chain formed by the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges and the Mentasta- Nutzotin Mountains, the coastal range and valley area to the south, and the southeastern Alaska "panhandle" -- an area of 185,000 square miles. Oil seeps on the west shore of Cook Inlet in southern Alaska were known as early as 1853, and claims were staked in this region in 1882. Drilling began near the oil seeps in the Katalla district about 1901, and this started Alaska's first period of oil activity. From 1902 to 1933 the Katalla field produced 154,000 barrels of oil from fractured shale and sandstone of Tertiary age the- first and only commercial production in Alaska. On the basis of geology, surficial indications of petroleum, and test wells drilled, six possible petroleum provinces are indicated in southern Alaska. They are Heceta Island area, Keku Islands area, Cook Inlet Mesozoic province, Gulf of Alaska Tertiary province, Cook Inlet Tertiary province, and Copper River basin. The exposed rocks in the Heceta Island area include lower Paleozoic graywacke-type sandstone, sandstone, conglomerate, and massive limestones with reeflike structures; igneous rocks are rare or lacking in much of the area. The Kosciusko-Tuxekan-Heceta synclinorium, the main structural feature, is modified by minor folds and faults. Some of the minor folds are reported to be broad and open, with flanks dipping 20°-145°. As far as known, the Heceta Island area has not heretofore been seriously considered as a possible petroleum province. Rocks of Silurian to Cretaceous age are exposed in the Keku Island area and include moderately folded and relatively unaltered limestone and other marine sedimentary rocks. The Cook Inlet Mesozoic province, a land area of approximately 18,500 square miles, includes a great thickness of unmetamorphosed marine sedimentary rocks of Jurassic and Cretaceous age. At least 23 test wells were drilled or started in this province by the end of 1955. Shows of oil and gas were encountered in many of these wells. During 1955 at least ten oil companies were active in this area and by the end of 1955 about 1 1/2 million acres were included in oil and gas leases applied for or granted. The Gulf of Alaska Tertiary province includes about 5,200 square miles in which rocks of Tertiary age are exposed or are believed to underlie Quaternary deposits. Between 1901 and the end of 1955 about 47 wells were drilled or started in this province. The Cook Inlet Tertiary province embraces an area of about 9,500 square miles, of which about 4,100 is covered by the shallow waters of Cook Inlet. Petroleum exploration has been in that part of the area which overlaps the Cook Inlet Mesozoic province. Eocene or younger Tertiary nonmarine sedimentary rocks are believed to underlie much of the province, and marine rocks of Tertiary age may also be present. The Copper River basin is a topographic basin underlain by unconsolidated deposits of Quaternary age. Tertiary rocks favorable for the accumulation of petroleum may underlie part of the basin but this is not believed likely. Except for some leasing activity no petroleum exploration has been recorded in the Copper River Basin to the end of 1955. Central Alaska is a region of about 275,000 square miles and consists of an irregular assemblage of intricately dissected uplands and alluvium-floored lowland basins. Scattered peaks of resistant intrusive igneous rocks surmount most of the upland areas. In the vast region of central Alaska only six test wells are known to have been drilled for the purpose of finding oil and gas. The maximum depth reached was 350 feet and the holes were mostly or entirely in Quaternary deposits. In recent years several oil companies have investigated some parts of the region and large areas in the Yukon-Koyukuk province are now under lease. Oil seeps, gas seeps, and other indications of petroleum have been reported from many localities; samples from two localities have been analyzed and reported to be petroleum. The geology of central Alaska is similar in a general way to that of the area between the Rocky Mountains and Sierra-Cascade belts of the United States. Sedimentary rocks, probably equivalent to the Precambrian Belt series, and rocks of the Cambrian and all younger geologic systems have been recognized in central Alaska. The structure of the region is known to be complex, but except in local mineral districts, it has not been mapped in detail. Based on the limited amount of available information, the region cannot be regarded as distinctly favorable for significant accumulations of petroleum. However, three pre-Cenozoic provinces, the Yukon-Koyukuk, the Kobuk, and the Kandik, and several large Cenozoic basin provinces may be worthy of further investigation. Northern Alaska includes the Brooks Range and all the treeless tundra north to the Arctic Coast, an area of about 125,000 square miles. The presence of oil seeps along the Arctic Coast has been known at least since 1900 and a description of the Cape Simpson oil seeps vas published in 1909. Since then oil and gas seeps have been described from nine localities, and oil shales and oil-bearing sandstones are known from many localities in the Arctic Foothills province. Oil and gas deposits have been discovered and geologic conditions are favorable for oil and gas accumulations in approximately half of the region. In 1923 approximately 37,000 square miles in northern Alaska was reserved by Executive order as Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 4. In 1944 the U. S. Navy began a vast petroleum exploration program which was suspended in 1953. In the years 1945 through 1955, 37 test wells and 45 core tests were drilled on 18 structures. Three oil fields, Umiat, Simpson, and Fish Creek, and two gas fields, South Barrow and Gubik, were discovered. Total reserve estimates for all discoveries of oil to 1955 range from 30 to 100 million barrels, and for gas, from 370 billion to 900 billion cubic feet. All northern Alaska, with the exception of the Brooks Range, can be considered a possible petroleum province, but the region can be subdivided into provinces of somewhat different potentialities. These subdivisions roughly correspond with the geomorphic provinces and sections, which in turn reflect differences in geology. The known oil-bearing beds are of Mesozoic age, primarily Cretaceous, and thus the possible petroleum provinces could be designated as Mesozoic. However, Paleozoic and Cenozoic rocks with favorable reservoir characteristics are exposed in the region and possibly underlie, in favorable structural situations, some of the areas as yet not tested. The Arctic Coastal Plain province includes gently folded and flat-lying Mesozoic beds that overlie a basement complex of Paleozoic and early Mesozoic age. Near the southern edge of this province the basement rocks are at depths of at least 20,000 feet, and to the north these rocks rise to within 2,500 feet of the surface. The Teshukpuk Lake section of the Arctic Coastal plain includes many of the known oil seeps; it is the most accessible to sea transportation, and lies almost completely within NPR 4. Thirteen test wells and 35 core tests have been drilled here; one gas field and two (at present, noncommercial) oil fields have been discovered. The possibility of further discoveries may depend largely on locating porous sandstones in stratigraphic rather than anticlinal traps. The White Hills section is distinguished topographically from the Teshukpruk section by its white-gravel-covered hills and fever lakes, and geologically by the presence of Tertiary rocks, including 2,000 feet of nonmarine beds in the west and at least 7,000 feet of marine beds to the east, in the vicinity of Carter Creek. This section appears to be more complex structurally. No test wells have been drilled in the White Hills section. The Northern Foothills section includes many closed anticlines. Twenty-four test wells and ten core tests have been drilled on 11 structures and two discoveries have been made -the Umiat oil field and the Gubik gas field. All these tests have been drilled in Cretaceous rocks. The Southern Foothills section is structurally similar to the Alberta Foothills and to the northern part of the Brooks Range. Great thicknesses of marine shale of Lover Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Triassic age are exposed. The outcropping Mesozoic sandstones are generally poorly sorted, nonporous, and impermeable. To the south the section is bordered by mountainous exposures of Mississippian limestone, which probably underlie at least part of this section. The rocks that underlie the deeply eroded complex structures of the Brooks Range include schist, slate, argillite, and limestone. Some exposed limestones have a strong petroleum-like odor and contain traces of petroleum residues.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Long-term groundwater availability in the Waihe‘e, ‘Īao, and Waikapū aquifer systems, Maui, Hawai‘i

Groundwater levels have declined since the 1940s in the Wailuku area of central Maui, Hawai‘i, on the eastern flank of West Maui volcano, mainly in response to increased groundwater withdrawals. Available data since the 1980s also indicate a thinning of the freshwater lens and an increase in chloride concentrations of pumped water from production wells. These trends, combined with projected increases in demand for groundwater in central Maui, have led to concerns over groundwater availability and have highlighted a need to improve general understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals in the Waihe‘e, ‘Īao, and Waikapū areas of central Maui. A numerical groundwater model was constructed to simulate the flow and salinity of groundwater in central Maui. The model simulates the effects of changes in groundwater withdrawals and recharge on water levels, freshwater-lens thicknesses, and chloride concentrations of pumped water from production wells. The model incorporates updated water-budget estimates of groundwater recharge from infiltration and direct recharge, seepage in stream channels, and inflow from inland areas. Mean annual groundwater recharge from infiltration and direct recharge was estimated using a daily water-budget model and the most current data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, for the study area for nine historical periods from 1926 through 2012: 1926–69, 1970–79, 1980–84, 1985–89, 1990–94, 1995–99, 2000–04, 2005–09, and 2010–12. The water-budget model also estimated groundwater recharge based on one hypothetical scenario that used 1980–2010 rainfall and 2017 land cover. For the nine historical periods, estimated recharge from infiltration and direct recharge within the area of the groundwater model ranged from 30.4 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) during 2010–12 to 98.7 Mgal/d during 1926–69. Variability in recharge during these periods mainly reflects changes in rainfall and irrigation over time. Between 2010 and 2014, streamflow restoration in previously diverted streams resulted in an estimated increase in recharge from seepage in stream channels of about 12.5 Mgal/d. Average groundwater inflow of about 39.6 Mgal/d from inland, dike-intruded areas to the main area of interest was estimated from an existing island-wide numerical groundwater-flow model, which is at a larger scale and incorporates a greater number of simplifying assumptions. The numerical groundwater model developed for this study was calibrated to 1926–2012 transient water levels, vertical salinity profiles, and chloride concentrations of water pumped by production wells in the study area. The model was then used to evaluate one future recharge and six selected withdrawal scenarios, developed in consultation with the Maui Department of Water Supply, in terms of long-term changes in water level and 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface. The groundwater model was also used to simulate the future salinity of water withdrawn by existing and proposed production wells. The simulations were run to steady-state conditions, providing an estimate of the long-term effects of changes in withdrawal and recharge on the groundwater resource. Results of the simulated future withdrawal scenarios indicate that, relative to 2017–18 rates, the scenarios’ long-term effect of increased withdrawals ultimately leads to lower water levels and a higher 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface indicating a thinning of the freshwater lens. Results also indicate that the increased withdrawals produce some groundwater with chloride concentration below 250 milligrams per liter and some groundwater with higher chloride concentration. The amount of drawdown near production wells and the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and spatial distribution of the withdrawals. The model was also used to evaluate how groundwater availability may be affected for a drier recharge scenario based on a published study of future climate. Model results of the future recharge scenario indicate that the rate of groundwater recharge is a controlling factor for (1) water levels, (2) the 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface, and (3) the quality of water withdrawn from production wells in the Wailuku area. Coupled with reduced groundwater recharge (with all other factors remaining equal), the modeled future withdrawals in the scenario would tend to cause lower water levels, a higher 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface, and increased salinity of water withdrawn from production wells. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the long-term hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Maui. The model has several limitations, including its non-uniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities. Short-term effects of changes in recharge and withdrawals—and optimization of pumping rates to meet increased demand for water with acceptable salinity—are possible conditions for future simulation analyses.

Hawaii↗

USGS2007

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the “A1b” and “A2” scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio↗

USGS1996

Analysis of nutrients in the surface waters of the Georgia–Florida Coastal Plain study unit, 1970–91

During the early phase of the Georgia-Florida National Water Quality Assessment study, existing information on nutrients was compiled and analyzed in order to evaluate the nutrient concentrations within the 61,545 square mile study unit. Evaluation of the nutrient concentrations collected at surface-water sites between October 1, 1970, and September 30, 1991, utilized the environmental characteristics of land resource provinces, land use, and nonpoint and point-source discharges within the study unit. Long-term trends were investigated to determine the temporal distribution of nutrient concentrations. In order to determine a level of concern for nutrient concentrations, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines were used: (1) for nitrate concentrations, the maximum contaminant level in public-drinking water supplies (10 mg/L); (2) for ammonia concentrations, the chronic exposure of aquatic organisms to un-ionized ammonia (2.1 mg/L); (3) for total-phosphorus concentrations, the recommended concentration in flowing water to discourage excessive growth of aquatic plants (0.1 mg/L); and (4) for kjeldahl concentrations, however, no guidelines were available. For sites within the 10 major river basins, median nutrient concentrations were enerally below USEPA guidelines, except for total-phosphorus concentrations where 45 percent of the medians exceeded the guideline. The only median ammonia concentration that exceeded the guideline occurred at the Swift Creek site (3.4 mg/L), in the Suwannee River basin, perhaps due to wastewater discharges. For all sites within the Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and St. Marys River basins, median concentrations of nitrate, ammonia, and total phosphorus were below the USEPA guidelines. Nutrient data at each monitoring site within each major basin were aggregated for comparisons of median nutrient concentrations among major basins. The Ochlockonee and Hillsborough River basins had the highest median nutrient concentrations, the Aucilla River basin had the lowest. Median concentrations of nitrate and ammonia among all major basins were below USEPA guidelines. The median total-phosphorus concentrations for the following river basins exceeded the USEPA guideline: Hillsborough, St. Johns, Suwannee, Ochlockonee, Satilla, Altamaha, and Ogeechee. Although nutrient concentrations within the study unit were low, long-term increasing trends were found in all four nutrients. All 18 study-unit wide nitrate trends had increasing slopes ranging from less than 0.01 to 0.07 (mg/L)/yr. The range in slope for the 13 ammonia trends was -0.03 to 0.01 (mg/L)/yr with 6 increasing trends in the northern part of the study unit. Of the 17 total-phosphorus trends found in the study unit, 10 were found at sites where the median concentration exceeded the USEPA guideline. At these 10 sites, 4 sites had increasing trends with slopes ranging from less than 0.01 to 0.07 (mg/L)/yr, 5 sites had decreasing trends with slopes ranging from -0.01 to -0.24 (mg/L)/yr, and one site showed a seasonal concentration trend. Median nutrient concentrations were significantly different among the four land resource provinces: Southern Piedmont, Southern Coastal Plain, Coastal Flatwoods, and Central Florida Ridge. As a result, nutrient concentrations among basins with similar nutrient inputs but located within different land resource provinces are not expected to be the same due to differences in the combination of factors such as soil permeability, runoff rates, and stream channel slopes. This concept is an important consideration in designing a surface-water quality network within the study area. For the most part, the Coastal Flatwoods showed the lowest median nutrient concentrations and the Southern Coastal Plain had the highest median nutrient concentrations. Lower median nitrate concentrations in surface-water basins were associated with the forest/wetland land-use category and higher median concentrations of nitrate and ammonia with the urban category when land-use percentages were classified into four land-use categories (agriculture, forest/wetland, mixed, and urban). These results were reasonable based on expected high nutrient inputs from urban areas and low inputs from forested and wetland areas. However, the lack of association between high nutrient concentrations and the agricultural land-use category was not expected since high nutrient inputs are generally needed for agriculture production.

Florida, Georgia↗

USGS1947

Part 3: Volcano investigations on Umnak Island, 1946

Umnak Island is a dumbbell-shaped island in the eastern part of the Aleutian Islands. The island is 70 miles long and trends northeast-southwest. During 1946 volcano investigations were begun on the island and geologic mapping of most of northeastern Umnak Island was completed. Okmok Volcano, a large, broad volcanic mountain rising to altitudes of 3,000 to 3,500 feet, occupies the central portion of northeastern Umnak Island. Fort Glenn, and Army airbase, is situated on the eastern end of the island, approximately 9 miles east of Okmok Volcano. The central part of Okmok Volcano is indented by Okmok caldera, a large cliff-rimmed volcanic depression, 7%, miles in maximum diameter. The floor of the caldera is 1,500 to 2,500 feet below the caldera rim. Nine large cinder cones and many small ones lie on the caldera floor, chiefly along two arcuate zones. The caldera is drained by Crater Creek, which flows through a deep gorge cut in the northeastern wall of the caldera, and into Bering Sea. Mount Tulik (4,111 feet altitude) and Mount Idak (1,918 feet altitude) arc important centers of ancient volcanism on the flanks of Okmok Volcano. The geologic history of Okmok Volcano falls into three stages: The first includes the upbuilding of an ancient cone—Mount Okmok—to an altitude of at least 6;500 feet on the site of the present caldera; the second encompasses the destruction in a castastrophic eruption of the summit cone and the formation of the caldera; the third comprises events since the great eruption. The earliest activity at Mount Okmok probably dates hack to the late Tertiary period. A composite cone, concave-sided in profile, was built by the alternate eruption of ash, coarse pyroclastics, and basalt flows. During the late Pleistocene, volcanic activity at Mount Okmok was greatly reduced and a topography of late youth was carved on the lower slopes by streams and valley glaciers. The summit of Mount Okmok was upwarped and dikes and necks were injected into the resulting fractures. A large volcano at the site of Mount Idak was active during part of the period of upbuilding at Mount Okmok but became extinct during the middle Pleistocene. A parasitic vent, Mount Tulik, became active during the late Pleistocene and built a steep-sided cone before it became extinct, shortly before the formation of Okmok caldera. A cataclysmic eruption terminated the period of dissection at Mount Okmok, 10,000 or more years ago. Part of the summit was blown away by the explosive violence of this eruption. Nuees ardentes (glowing clouds) and mudflows deposited tuff-breccia and agglomerate in the glacial valleys; later phases of the eruption blanketed the landscape with ash. Near the end of the eruption, the remaining upper part of the volcano collapsed along arcuate fractures: large blocks subsided several thousand feet and are now concealed in the caldera Poor beneath later deposits. A large arcuate fault block which subsided less than other blocks stands above the floor in the northeastern part of the caldera. After the eruption, water collected in the caldera, forming a lake. Small but frequently active cones built islands in the lake and covered its bottom with pyroclastic debris. The lake eventually overflowed the lowest point in the rim of the caldera, and Crater Creek Gorge was carved, draining the lake and dissecting its deposits. Renewed movement along faults at the head of Crater Creek Gorge later raised a harrier which temporarily dammed the drainage and formed a second caldera lake. Readjustments among subsided blocks in the caldera floor resulted in the folding of postcaldera deposits at several localities. Much of the caldera floor has been covered by lava flows extruded from several cones since the draining of the first caldera lake. In general, however, volcanic activity seems to have declined since the great caldera-forming eruption. Seven eruptions from cones on the caldera floor have been recorded since 1817; the latest occurred in 1945. As part of the geochemical program for the study of Okmok Volcano, temperatures of fumaroles were measured and samples of the products of the volcanic activity were analyzed. Average temperatures of fumaroles at one source of the 1945 lava low dropped from 320° C. on July 19 to 90° C. on September 5. The temperatures of fumaroles associated with the crater vents on both Cones A and C ranged from 95° C. to 97" C., which is slightly below the condensation point of steam, indicating the presence of minor quantities of gases other than steam. The magmatic gases of fumaroles on Cone A consisted of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide in about equal amounts. The lack of halogen acid gases in the fumaroles and the steadily dropping temperatures arc interpreted as indicating that the present quiescence of Cone A will continue for many months. Solid reaction products from areas of fumarolic activity on Cone A are sulfates of sodium, calcium, and iron. The presence of hydrogen sulfide as the dominant sulfur gas at Cone C is interpreted as indicating the dying stages of the present cycle of activity of Cone C. Thermal springs along the north base of Cone D have a total discharge of 115 cubic feet per second. Their average temperature is approximately 7° C. above the annual mean. From these figures it is calculated that about 21,000 kilogram calories per second are being given off by Cone D. The spring waters contain minute quantities of boron which is indicative of a magmatic source for a small part of the water. Hence, Cone D though quiescent is not extinct. Evidence is presented to show that most of the spring water from Cone D is meteoric in origin. Thermal waters in the southwestern part of Umnak Island at Hot Springs Cove and south of Geyser Bight contain lithium, boron, arsenic, and antimony in solution. These elements are regarded as derived from underlying magmas that are in an advanced state of crystallization and hence not likely to give rise in the near future to large-scale volcanic activity. Three portable seismographs were placed on the flanks of Okmok Volcano and were in operation during most of the period from June 1 to October 1. During this period several slight tremors and one moderate tremor, all of distant origin, were registered, but no tremors attributable to Okmok Volcano were recorded. The lack of tremor records, however, may have been due more to the insensitivity of the instruments than to the absence of tremors. Earth-current investigations were carried on during August and September by comparison of records obtained from a base station at Fort Glenn with those from a station 1 V2 miles southwest of Mount Tulik. The records obtained indicate that no difference in magnitude or direction of earth currents existed between the Fort Glenn and Mount Tulik areas. The similarity of record obtained is indicative of the absence of a disturbing factor such as a large body of live magma beneath Okmok Volcano. Future eruptions of Okmok Volcano are expected to he of mild to moderate intensity, and will he chiefly in the form of ash falls from vents inside the caldera. There would be a great menace—in the form of lava flows, nuees ardentes, and mudflows—to installations at Fort Glenn if a new center of volcanism came into existence on the east slope of Okmok Volcano. Small postcaldera cones now exposed there indicate that extra-caldera eruptions have occurred in the recent past and can be expected in the future. The possibility of another catastrophic eruption of the caldera-forming type, however, is remote. Okmok Volcano should be kept under close observation, partly because of its possible threat to Fort Glenn and partly because it is a readily accessible locale for accumulating information on details of volcanic processes, applicable to other volcanoes in the Aleutian arc and elsewhere.

Alaska↗