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Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Geological Society of London Special Publications↗

Geotherm: the U.S. geological survey geothermal information system

GEOTHERM is a comprehensive system of public databases and software used to store, locate, and evaluate information on the geology, geochemistry, and hydrology of geothermal systems. Three main databases address the general characteristics of geothermal wells and fields, and the chemical properties of geothermal fluids; the last database is currently the most active. System tasks are divided into four areas: (1) data acquisition and entry, involving data entry via word processors and magnetic tape; (2) quality assurance, including the criteria and standards handbook and front-end data-screening programs; (3) operation, involving database backups and information extraction; and (4) user assistance, preparation of such items as application programs, and a quarterly newsletter. The principal task of GEOTHERM is to provide information and research support for the conduct of national geothermal-resource assessments. The principal users of GEOTHERM are those involved with the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Information in the system is available to the public on request. ?? 1983.

Computers & Geosciences↗

Indicators of mercury concentration in Lake Trout: Can fish location and appearance provide information to anglers to reduce their exposure?

Objective People are exposed to mercury (Hg) through the consumption of fish. State and federal governments provide broad, often-generalized food safety guidance to reduce exposure; however, numerous rural fishing areas lack testing and location- or species-specific guidance. The aim of this study was to provide tangible, visible, or easily measured characteristics of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush that could convey information on Hg exposure to people harvesting and consuming fish where no location-specific guidance exists. Methods We investigated potential indicators of Lake Trout total Hg (THg) concentrations in muscle across 10 lakes in Alaska's national parks. Potential indicators, including lake, lake zone (i.e., littoral, pelagic, profundal), fish length, head size, body condition, and general appearance, were evaluated by competing linear mixed-effects models. Results Lake Trout THg concentrations ranged widely from 22 to 1,306 ng/g wet weight. Much of the variation (48%) in THg concentrations was attributed to differences among individual lakes, but the interaction of the fish's lake zone, body length, and head size accounted for an additional 21%. Predicted THg concentrations increased with Lake Trout length and head : body proportion, but the rate of THg concentration increase with length varied by head : body proportion and lake zone. Conclusions Given the overwhelming evidence of high lake-to-lake variability in Lake Trout THg concentrations, we find support for use of lake-specific guidance when data are available. When lake-specific THg concentrations are not available, the best potential way to reduce exposure is to harvest and consume Lake Trout with mean predicted THg concentrations that are within state and federal safe consumption guidelines. This included Lake Trout from surface waters (i.e., pelagic or littoral zone) that are ≤70 cm in length; if harvesting fish from deep waters (i.e., profundal zone), lower THg concentrations were found in Lake Trout with heads ≤25% of their body length. The indicators—lake zone, length, and head size—of Lake Trout THg concentrations can provide harvesters with additional information in the absence of data for specific lakes.

Alaska↗

Geology of the Bighorn Mountains

This report is the result of studies made in the field during the seasons of 1901, 1902, 1903, 1904, and 1905. It relates to an area of about 9,000 square miles, situated mainly in the north-central portion of Wyoming and extending northward into Montana. Its location and general surroundings are shown on PL II. It covers the greater portion of the Bighorn uplift, together with an adjoining area of the Great Plains on the east. It also includes a small part of the Bighorn Basin and the eastern end of the Bridger Range. The report describes the various rocks, their structure, history, and mineral resources, including underground water, coal, gypsum, and various other products. It also contains information as to surface waters available for irrigation. Throughout the work assistance has been rendered by Mr. C. A. Fisher, who mapped portions of the area, measured numerous sections, collected fossils, and examined most of the crystalline rocks; and the author is indebted to Mr. Albert Johannsen for some of the petrographic descriptions. Previous observers have given but little information regarding the geology of the Bighorn Mountains, though Dr. F. V. Hayden ascertained the general relations of the uplift in his exploration of the Northwest, and Mr. George H. Eldridge, who crossed the range near Bald Mountain and southwest of Buffalo during the summer of 1893, described 0 some of the broader features of the geologic succession and structure in a remarkably comprehensive manner, considering how small an area he had the opportunity to examine. The Bighorn region is very thinly settled, there being no permanent habitations among the mountains, and it is but little visited by others than hunters, prospectors, and herders. There have recently been established two summer resorts in the mountains, and each year a larger number of persons visit the region. Unfortunately the mineral prospects have proved disappointing to the prospectors, and there appears to be but little promise that the area will become important on account of its mineral resources. In the Bridger uplift promising prospects of gold and copper have recently been discovered, which may prove of value. There are extensive, forests in the mountains, which are now included in a Government forest reserve, but their timber is not of great value. Much of the area below timber line contains an abundance of luxuriant grasses and other plants, which afford excellent pasturage for stock, and large herds of sheep and cattle are ranged in the region during the short summer season. Game is moderately abundant, and most of the streams contain large numbers of trout. The region is one of great interest geologically on account of its variety of sedimentary rocks, interesting structure, and remarkably instructive glacial features. The central area, with its high peaks, presents alpine scenery of notable character. Doubtless in the future the region will be extensively visited by tourists, hunters, and geologists.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Prospects and limitations of citizen science in invasive species management: A case study with Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park

Citizen-science programs have the potential to contribute to the management of invasive species, including Python molurus bivittatus (Burmese Python) in Florida. We characterized citizen-science–generated Burmese Python information from Everglades National Park (ENP) to explore how citizen science may be useful in this effort. As an initial step, we compiled and summarized records of Burmese Python observations and removals collected by both professional and citizen scientists in ENP during 2000–2014 and found many patterns of possible significance, including changes in annual observations and in demographic composition after a cold event. These patterns are difficult to confidently interpret because the records lack search-effort information, however, and differences among years may result from differences in search effort. We began collecting search-effort information in 2014 by leveraging an ongoing citizen-science program in ENP. Program participation was generally low, with most authorized participants in 2014 not searching for the snakes at all. We discuss the possible explanations for low participation, especially how the low likelihood of observing pythons weakens incentives to search. The monthly rate of Burmese Python observations for 2014 averaged ~1 observation for every 8 h of searching, but during several months, the rate was 1 python per >40 h of searching. These low observation-rates are a natural outcome of the snakes’ low detectability—few Burmese Pythons are likely to be observed even if many are present. The general inaccessibility of the southern Florida landscape also severely limits the effectiveness of using visual searches to find and remove pythons for the purposes of population control. Instead, and despite the difficulties in incentivizing voluntary participation, the value of citizen-science efforts in the management of the Burmese Python population is in collecting search-effort information.

Southeastern Naturalist↗

Center of Excellence for Geospatial Information Science research plan 2013-18

The U.S. Geological Survey Center of Excellence for Geospatial Information Science (CEGIS) was created in 2006 and since that time has provided research primarily in support of The National Map. The presentations and publications of the CEGIS researchers document the research accomplishments that include advances in electronic topographic map design, generalization, data integration, map projections, sea level rise modeling, geospatial semantics, ontology, user-centered design, volunteer geographic information, and parallel and grid computing for geospatial data from The National Map. A research plan spanning 2013–18 has been developed extending the accomplishments of the CEGIS researchers and documenting new research areas that are anticipated to support The National Map of the future. In addition to extending the 2006–12 research areas, the CEGIS research plan for 2013–18 includes new research areas in data models, geospatial semantics, high-performance computing, volunteered geographic information, crowdsourcing, social media, data integration, and multiscale representations to support the Three-Dimensional Elevation Program (3DEP) and The National Map of the future of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Open-File Report↗

Preliminary integrated geologic map databases for the United States: Digital data for the generalized bedrock geologic map, Yukon Flats region, east-central Alaska

The growth in the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has highlighted the need for digital geologic maps that have been attributed with information about age and lithology. Such maps can be conveniently used to generate derivative maps for manifold special purposes such as mineral-resource assessment, metallogenic studies, tectonic studies, and environmental research. This report is part of a series of integrated geologic map databases that cover the entire United States. Three national-scale geologic maps that portray most or all of the United States already exist; for the conterminous U.S., King and Beikman (1974a,b) compiled a map at a scale of 1:2,500,000, Beikman (1980) compiled a map for Alaska at 1:2,500,000 scale, and for the entire U.S., Reed and others (2005a,b) compiled a map at a scale of 1:5,000,000. A digital version of the King and Beikman map was published by Schruben and others (1994). Reed and Bush (2004) produced a digital version of the Reed and others (2005a) map for the conterminous U.S. The present series of maps is intended to provide the next step in increased detail. State geologic maps that range in scale from 1:100,000 to 1:1,000,000 are available for most of the country, and digital versions of these state maps are the basis of this product. The digital geologic maps presented here are in a standardized format as ARC/INFO export files and as ArcView shape files. Data tables that relate the map units to detailed lithologic and age information accompany these GIS files. The map is delivered as a set 1:250,000-scale quadrangle files. To the best of our ability, these quadrangle files are edge-matched with respect to geology. When the maps are merged, the combined attribute tables can be used directly with the merged maps to make derivative maps.

Alaska↗

Drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania

This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey, to determine drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania. Because all or parts of southeastern Pennsylvania have been in drought-warning or drought-emergency status during 6 of the past 10 years from 1994 through 2004, this information should aid well owners, drillers, and water-resource managers in guiding appropriate well construction and sustainable use of Pennsylvania's water resources. 'Drought-sensitive' aquifer settings are defined for this study as areas unable to supply adequate quantities of water to wells during drought. Using information from previous investigations and a knowledge of the hydrogeology and topography of the study area, drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania were hypothesized as being associated with two factors - a water-table decline (WTD) index and topographic setting. The WTD index is an estimate of the theoretical water-table decline at the ground-water divide for a hypothetical aquifer with idealized geometry. The index shows the magnitude of ground-water decline after cessation of recharge is a function of (1) distance from stream to divide, (2) ground-water recharge rate, (3) transmissivity, (4) specific yield, and (5) duration of the drought. WTD indices were developed for 39 aquifers that were subsequently grouped into categories of high, moderate, and low WTD index. Drought-sensitive settings determined from the hypothesized factors were compared to locations of wells known to have been affected (gone dry, replaced, or deepened) during recent droughts. Information collected from well owners, drillers, and public agencies identified 2,016 wells affected by drought during 1998-2002. Most of the available data on the location of drought-affected wells in the study area were from Chester and Montgomery Counties because those counties have well-construction regulations that identify wells that failed during drought. The locations of drought-affected wells in Chester and Montgomery Counties indicated the most highly sensitive settings are uplands and slopes in aquifers with high WTD index and uplands in aquifers with moderate WTD index. The least sensitive settings are in aquifers with low WTD index, in valleys, or on slopes. A map was developed showing the relative drought sensitivity (low, moderate, and high) of aquifers in southeastern Pennsylvania. Study results were limited by the inability to obtain much information about the location of drought-affected wells, with the exception of Montgomery and Chester Counties. Also, the construction characteristics (particularly depth) of drought-affected wells generally were not available. Well depth could be used to distinguish between problems caused by shallow well depth (generally less than 100 ft) and those caused by deficiency of the aquifer to supply water. With the exception of owner-derived information from a public survey on drought-affected wells (35 wells), depth data were not obtained. Data from the 35 drought-affected wells indicated most were drilled (not dug) and were completed to depths greater than 100 feet. This finding indicates that the affects of recent droughts in southeastern Pennsylvania were not restricted to shallow dug wells, but also affected deeper drilled wells.

Pennsylvania↗

Inter-annual variability in apparent relative production, survival, and growth of juvenile Lost River and shortnose suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2001–15

Executive Summary Populations of the once abundant Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) of the Upper Klamath Basin, decreased so substantially throughout the 20th century that they were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1988. Major landscape alterations, deterioration of water quality, and competition with and predation by exotic species are listed as primary causes of the decreases in populations. Upper Klamath Lake populations are decreasing because fish lost due to adult mortality, which is relatively low for adult Lost River suckers and variable for adult shortnose suckers, are not replaced by new young adult suckers recruiting into known adult spawning aggregations. Catch-at-age and size data indicate that most adult suckers presently in Upper Klamath Lake spawning populations were hatched around 1991. While, a lack of egg production and emigration of young fish (especially larvae) may contribute, catch-at-length and age data indicate high mortality during the first summer or winter of life may be the primary limitation to the recruitment of young adults. The causes of juvenile sucker mortality are unknown. We compiled and analyzed catch, length, age, and species data on juvenile suckers from Upper Klamath Lake from eight prior studies conducted from 2001 to 2015 to examine annual variation in apparent production, survival, and growth of young suckers. We used a combination of qualitative assessments, general linear models, and linear regression to make inferences about annual differences in juvenile sucker dynamics. The intent of this exercise is to provide information that can be compared to annual variability in environmental conditions with the hopes of understanding what drives juvenile sucker population dynamics. Age-0 Lost River suckers generally grew faster than age-0 shortnose suckers, but the difference in growth rates between the two species varied among years. This unsynchronized annual variation in daily growth may be an indication that environmental conditions are affecting growth rates of these species in different ways. The combined evidence outlined in this report and in Simon and others (2012) indicates that years of relatively high age-0 sucker production occurred in the late 1990s through at least 2000, in 2006, and in 2011. Our analysis of annual age-0 sucker catch per unit effort (CPUE), which accounted for zero inflated data and annual variation in sampling gears and locations, indicated that 2006 had the greatest apparent relative production of age-0 suckers ≥ 45 mm standard length (SL) during the time period examined. Midsummer trap net effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was too sparse to examine age-0 sucker CPUE from 2011 to 2013. Relatively frequent catches of age-1 suckers in 2001, 2007, and 2012 corroborated relatively high CPUE for age-0 suckers during 1999–2000, 2006, and 2011, as reported by USGS or Simon and others (2012). There were several indications in the data that juvenile sucker survival is low from at least midsummer of the first year of life through mid-September of the second year of life. Our estimated index of relative apparent age-0 sucker late-summer survival, which accounted for zero inflated data and variations in sampling gears and locations, was higher in 2009 than in 2004. Our index of apparent age-0 sucker mortality for all other years from 2001 to 2015 was similar among years. Seventy-five percent of age-1 suckers were captured prior to July 17 each year. In 2007, the one year with substantial age-1 sucker summertime catches, the proportion of nets to capture age-1 suckers decreased from July to mid-September. Maximum annual age-2+ sucker CPUE was 0.02 fish per net, 10,000 times less than the maximum annual age-0 sucker CPUE. Analysis of species data indicated that juvenile Lost River suckers may have greater apparent mortality than shortnose suckers. Lost River suckers made up a smaller proportion of age-0 suckers captured in July each year than would be expected, based on the abundance of adult Lost River suckers relative to shortnose suckers, and higher Lost River than shortnose sucker fecundity. The proportion of age-0 suckers captured that were Lost River suckers decreased from July to September in several years. Only 14 percent of age-1 or older juvenile suckers identified to species over the 15-year time period were Lost River suckers.

Oregon↗

Using paleoecological data to inform decision making: A deep-time perspective

Latest climate models project conditions for the end of this century that are generally outside of the human experience. These future conditions affect the resilience and sustainability of ecosystems, alter biogeographic zones, and impact biodiversity. Deep-time records of paleoclimate provide insight into the climate system over millions of years and provide examples of conditions very different from the present day, and in some cases similar to model projections for the future. In addition, the deep-time paleoecologic and sedimentologic archives provide insight into how species and habitats responded to past climate conditions. Thus, paleoclimatology provides essential context for the scientific understanding of climate change needed to inform resource management policy decisions. The Pliocene Epoch (5.3–2.6 Ma) is the most recent deep-time interval with relevance to future global warming. Analysis of marine sediments using a combination of paleoecology, biomarkers, and geochemistry indicates a global mean annual temperature for the Late Pliocene (3.6–2.6 Ma) ∼3°C warmer than the preindustrial. However, the inability of state-of-the-art climate models to capture some key regional features of Pliocene warming implies future projections using these same models may not span the full range of plausible future climate conditions. We use the Late Pliocene as one example of a deep-time interval relevant to management of biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world. Pliocene reconstructed sea surface temperatures are used to drive a marine ecosystem model for the North Atlantic Ocean. Given that boundary conditions for the Late Pliocene are roughly analogous to present day, driving the marine ecosystem model with Late Pliocene paleoenvironmental conditions allows policymakers to consider a future ocean state and associated fisheries impacts independent of climate models, informed directly by paleoclimate information.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Toxicological assessment of aquatic ecosystems: application to watercraft contaminants in shallow water environments

Recreational boating and personal watercraft use have the potential to adversely impact shallow water systems through contaminant release and physical disturbance of bottom sediments. These nearshore areas are often already degraded by surface runoff, municipal and industrial effluents, and other anthropogenic activities. For proper management, information is needed on the level of contamination and environmental quality of these systems. A number of field and laboratory procedures can be used to provide this much needed information. Contaminants, such as metals, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, entering aquatic environments generally attach to particulate matter that eventually settles and becomes incorporated into the bottom sediments. Because bottom sediments serve as a sink and as a source for contaminants, environmental assessments generally focus on this matrix. While contaminant residues in sediments and sediment pore waters can reflect environmental quality, characteristics of sediment (redox potential, sediment/pore-water chemistry, acid volatile sulfides, percent organic matter, and sediment particle size) influence their bioavailability and make interpretation of environmental significance difficult. Comparisons of contaminant concentrations in pore water (interstitial water) and sediment with water quality criteria and sediment quality guidelines, respectively, can provide insight into potential biological effects. Laboratory bioaccumulation studies and residue concentrations in resident or caged biota also yield information on potential biological impacts. The usefulness of these measurements may increase as data are developed relating in-situ concentrations, tissue residue levels, and biological responses. Exposure of test organisms in situ or to field-collected sediment and pore water are additional procedures that can be used to assess the biological effects of contaminants. A battery of tests using multi-species and/or various life stages with different sensitivities to contaminants may offer a more conservative assessment of toxicity than single species testing. Using a ?weight of evidence? approach, the Sediment Quality Trial produces a robust evaluation of habitat quality and includes a measure of contaminant concentrations in the sediment, an assessment of sediment/pore-water toxicity to laboratory animals, and an evaluation of in situ biological assemblages. Field and laboratory procedures are available that can be used to ascertain habitat quality, identify contaminants causing environmental degradation and delineate aquatic systems requiring mitigation of protective efforts. These studies provide the scientific data that are integral to developing an environmental risk assessment of contaminants from watercraft use in shallow water systems.

Book chapter↗

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory news media management guide — General protocols and templates

This guide describes general protocols and provides templates for news media management at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) and is intended for use by the CVO scientist-in-charge, communications staff, scientists, and guest communications colleagues. This public version, with CVO names and contact information removed, may be useful to other agencies developing their own protocols and templates. This guide evolved from a smaller document hastily assembled out of necessity during the complex and overwhelming news media interest in the 2004–2008 Mount St. Helens eruption. News media interest exceeded the need for life-saving crisis communication and foretold of the need for future multi-faceted and well-coordinated news media and social media responses during future volcanic events. This guide accompanies the USGS Volcano Science Center’s (VSC’s) general guidelines and protocols for how communications staff at all VSC observatories will work together to respond to news media requests. The protocols and templates are applicable to (1) normal conditions when CVO has an opportunity to be proactive with its messages and to raise general awareness, (2) general responses to news media and TV documentary inquiries, (3) intense news media interest where the responsibility to communicate information and hazards rests primarily with staff at CVO, and (4) intense and overwhelming news media interest that requires a multiagency response. This guide reflects general protocols in effect at the time of publication. The information will be modified as conditions change. Although “news media” generally refers to traditional outlets such as TV, radio, and newspapers, the protocols used to engage these traditional outlets apply also when responding to bloggers, online news services, and social media comments.

Circular↗

Land surface phenology

Certain vegetation types (e.g., deciduous shrubs, deciduous trees, grasslands) have distinct life cycles marked by the growth and senescence of leaves and periods of enhanced photosynthetic activity. Where these types exist, recurring changes in foliage alter the reflectance of electromagnetic radiation from the land surface, which can be measured using remote sensors. The timing of these recurring changes in reflectance is called land surface phenology (LSP). During recent decades, a variety of methods have been used to derive LSP metrics from time series of reflectance measurements acquired by satellite-borne sensors. In contrast to conventional phenology observations, LSP metrics represent the timing of reflectance changes that are driven by the aggregate activity of vegetation within the areal unit measured by the satellite sensor and do not directly provide information about the phenology of individual plants, species, or their phenophases. Despite the generalized nature of satellite sensor-derived measurements, they have proven useful for studying changes in LSP associated with various phenomena. This chapter provides a detailed overview of the use of satellite remote sensing to monitor LSP. First, the theoretical basis for the application of satellite remote sensing to the study of vegetation phenology is presented. After establishing a theoretical foundation for LSP, methods of deriving and validating LSP metrics are discussed. This chapter concludes with a discussion of major research findings and current and future research directions.

Book chapter↗

Effect of enhanced manganese oxidation in the hyporheic zone on basin-scale geochemical mass balance

We determined the role of the hyporheic zone (the subsurface zone where stream water and shallow groundwater mix) in enhancing microbially mediated oxidation of dissolved manganese (to form manganese precipitates) in a drainage basin contaminated by copper mining. The fate of manganese is of overall importance to water quality in Pinal Creek Basin, Arizona, because manganese reactions affect the transport of trace metals. The basin-scale role of the hyporheic zone is difficult to quantify because stream-tracer studies do not always reliably characterize the cumulative effects of the hyporheic zone. This study determined cumulative effects of hyporheic reactions in Pinal Creek basin by characterizing manganese uptake at several spatial scales (stream-reach scale, hyporheic-flow-path scale, and sediment-grain scale). At the stream-reach scale a one-dimensional stream-transport model (including storage zones to represent hyporheic flow paths) was used to determine a reach-averaged time constant for manganese uptake in hyporheic zones, 1/λ s , of 1.3 hours, which was somewhat faster but still similar to manganese uptake time constants that were measured directly in centimeter-scale hyporheic flow paths (1/λ h = 2.6 hours), and in laboratory batch experiments using streambed sediment (1/λ = 2.7 hours). The modeled depths of subsurface storage zones ( d s = 4–17 cm) and modeled residence times of water in storage zones ( t s = 3–12 min) were both consistent with direct measurements in hyporheic flow paths ( d h = 0–15 cm, t h = 1–25 min). There was also good agreement between reach-scale modeling and direct measurements of the percentage removal of dissolved manganese in hyporheic flow paths ( f s = 8.9%, and f h = 9.3%rpar;. Manganese uptake experiments in the laboratory using sediment from Pinal Creek demonstrated (through comparison of poisoned and unpoisoned treatments) that the manganese removal process was enhanced by microbially mediated oxidation. The cumulative effect of hyporheic exchange in Pinal Creek basin was to remove approximately 20% of the dissolved manganese flowing out of the drainage basin. Our results illustrate that the cumulative significance of reactive uptake in the hyporheic zone depends on the balance between chemical reaction rates, hyporheic porewater residence time, and turnover of streamflow through hyporheic flow paths. The similarity between the hyporheic reaction timescale (1/λ s ≈ 1.3 hours), and the hyporheic porewater residence timescale ( t s ≈ 8 min) ensured that there was adequate time for the reaction to progress. Furthermore, it was the similarity between the turnover length for stream water flow through hyporheic flow paths ( L s = stream velocity/storage-zone exchange coefficient ≈ 1.3 km) and the length of Pinal Creek ( L ≈ 7 km), which ensured that all stream water passed through hyporheic flow paths several times. As a means to generalize our findings to other sites where similar types of hydrologic and chemical information are available, we suggest a cumulative significance index for hyporheic reactions, R s = λ s t s L / L s (dimensionless); higher values indicate a greater potential for hyporheic reactions to influence geochemical mass balance. Our experience in Pinal Creek basin suggests that values of R s > 0.2 characterize systems where hyporheic reactions are likely to influence geochemical mass balance at the drainage-basin scale.

Water Resources Research↗

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Conference Paper↗

The vegetation outlook (VegOut): a new method for predicting vegetation seasonal greenness

The vegetation outlook (VegOut) is a geospatial tool for predicting general vegetation condition patterns across large areas. VegOut predicts a standardized seasonal greenness (SSG) measure, which represents a general indicator of relative vegetation health. VegOut predicts SSG values at multiple time steps (two to six weeks into the future) based on the analysis of "historical patterns" (i.e., patterns at each 1 km grid cell and time of the year) of satellite, climate, and oceanic data over an 18-year period (1989 to 2006). The model underlying VegOut capitalizes on historical climate-vegetation interactions and ocean-climate teleconnections (such as El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, ENSO) expressed over the 18-year data record and also considers several environmental characteristics (e.g., land use/cover type and soils) that influence vegetation's response to weather conditions to produce 1 km maps that depict future general vegetation conditions. VegOut provides regionallevel vegetation monitoring capabilities with local-scale information (e.g., county to sub-county level) that can complement more traditional remote sensing-based approaches that monitor "current" vegetation conditions. In this paper, the VegOut approach is discussed and a case study over the central United States for selected periods of the 2008 growing season is presented to demonstrate the potential of this new tool for assessing and predicting vegetation conditions.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗

Review and photogeologic evaluation of some selected anticlines in the Maybe Creek area

The following report presents in tabulated form the location, structure, and stratigraphy of various anticlines in the Maybe Creek area which are presently considered to be reasonably favorable drilling sites, References to mere complete sources of information for each anticline are listed. The accompanying diagram (Fig. 1) presents a generalized stratigraphic picture of the section that would be penetrated by a hole located on the crest of each of these structures. The zonal thicknesses, as shown in this diagram, are average figures and they probably vary from anticline to anticline within this area as they do elsewhere on the North Slope. The thickness of postulated favorable sands and also the stratigraphic horizon reached by each of the proposed 1,500-foot holes may be further affected by the postulated prezone F unconformity. It seems probable that zone E is essentially absent at Umiat. At the Weasel Creek anticline a total of approximately 1,700 feet of zone E sediments appear to be present. This is probably the complete zone E section. Thus the thickness of zone E sediments m4y vary considerably from place to place within the area west of Umiat covered by this report, and these possible variations are not shown in the diagram (Fig. 1). Interpretations of depth and thickness of favorable sands are based on the facies studies of T. G. Payne1/. Discussions presented are limited to Nanushuk Group rocks and no reference is made nor inference intended as to possible favorable stratigaphic or structural conditions in the older sedimentary rocks.

Alaska↗

Longitudinal patterns of fish assemblages, aquatic habitat, and water temperature in the Lower Crooked River, Oregon

The Lower Crooked River is a remarkable groundwater-fed stream flowing through vertical basalt canyons in the Deschutes River Valley ecoregion in central Oregon (Pater and others, 1998). The 9-mile section of the river between the Crooked River National Grasslands boundary near Ogden Wayside and river mile (RM) 8 is protected under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers Act (16 U.S.C. 1271-1287) for its outstandingly remarkable scenic, recreational, geologic, hydrologic, wildlife, and botanical values (ORVs), and significant fishery and cultural values. Groundwater springs flow directly out of the canyon walls into the Lower Crooked River and create a unique hydrologic setting for native coldwater fish, such as inland Columbia Basin redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri). To protect and enhance the ORVs that are the basis for the wild and scenic designation, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has identified the need to evaluate, among other conditions, fish presence and habitat use of the Lower Crooked River. The results of this and other studies will provide a scientific basis for communication and cooperation between the BLM, Oregon Water Resources Department, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) and all water users within the basin. These biological studies initiated by the BLM in the region reflect a growing national awareness of the impacts of agricultural and municipal water use on the integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Biological surveys are needed to better understand the aquatic ecosystem of the Lower Crooked River. This baseline information will be valuable to public land managers whose task is to balance resource use while protecting the unique attributes (that is, ORVs) of the Lower Crooked River. The habitat requirements of coldwater fishes in this section of stream are of particular interest due to state and federal regulation of water temperature in order to protect and restore fish populations. Historical data on the distribution and abundance of stream fishes in the Lower Crooked River are limited to point observations by fishermen and local biologists because steep canyon walls have limited access to most of the river. Surveys of aquatic habitat (channel morphology and substrate composition) have been conducted for the BLM by the ODFW (Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, 1997), U.S. Forest Service (United States Forest Service, 2003), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), but fish surveys using electrofishing gear have never been conducted in the isolated 11-mile section of the Crooked River Gorge, and visual observations with mask and snorkel have only been made at isolated point locations where hiking trails provide access to the river (K. Jones, Steve Marx, and Brett Hodgson, ODFW; P. Lickwar, USFWS; pers. comm.). Thus, there is a poor understanding of stream fish presence and distribution throughout Lower Crooked River. Information on fish assemblages is available for the Deschutes River basin and applies generally to the Lower Crooked River because the two rivers were connected historically (Zimmerman and Ratliff 2003). The construction of dams throughout the Deschutes River basin has eliminated historic runs of salmon and steelhead and prevented migration of bull trout and Pacific lamprey into the Crooked River system. Native fish species expected to occur in the Lower Crooked River include Columbia Basin redband trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri ), mountain whitefish ( Prosopium williamsoni ), sculpin ( Cottus spp.), two species of dace ( Rhinichthys spp.), two species of sucker ( Catostomus spp.), northern pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus oregonensis ), chiselmouth ( Acrocheilus alutaceus ), and redside shiner ( Richardsonius balteatus ). Threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ), a species native to western Oregon, also occurs in the basin but is believed to be introduced (D. Markle, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, personnel commun.). Extensive stocking of rainbow trout has contributed to a large population of naturalized fish of hatchery origin in the Lower Crooked River. Due to the difficulty of differentiating between wild redband trout and naturalized rainbow trout of hatchery origin, the general classification of rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) is used throughout this report to describe the fish that were observed in the Lower Crooked River. Exotic fish species expected to occur in the Lower Crooked River include large- and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus spp.), yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), and brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosis) (Zimmerman and Ratliff 2003). The goal of this project was to examine longitudinal patterns in fish assemblages, aquatic habitat, and water temperature in the Lower Crooked River during summer conditions. Specific objectives were to (1) characterize the spatial distribution of native and non-native fishes, (2) describe variation in channel morphology, substrate composition, and water temperature, and (3) evaluate the associations between fishes, aquatic habitat, and water temperature.

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