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Magnitude and frequency of floods on Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi, State of Hawaiʻi, based on data through water year 2020

Accurate estimates of flood magnitude and frequency are needed to (1) optimize the design and location of infrastructure, including dams, culverts, bridges, industrial buildings, and highways, and (2) inform flood-zoning and flood-insurance studies. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the State of Hawaiʻi Department of Transportation, estimated flood magnitudes for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEP) for unregulated streamgages in Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi, State of Hawaiʻi, using data through water year 2020. Regression equations were developed to estimate flood magnitude and associated frequency at ungaged streams. This study improves upon a previous USGS flood-frequency report (Oki and others, 2010) by including more peak-flow data, implementing new statistical methods in flood-frequency analysis, and using updated techniques to estimate the regional-skewness coefficient (regional skew). Flood magnitude and frequency at 238 streamgages were estimated—following national guidelines established in Bulletin 17C (England and others, 2019)—by fitting annual peak-flow data to the Log-Pearson Type III distribution using the expected moments algorithm and the PeakFQ flood-frequency software. Potentially influential low outliers in the data were identified and removed using the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test. An updated regional skew for Hawaiʻi was estimated using the Bayesian weighted least squares/Bayesian generalized least squares method. The updated regional skew employs a constant model for the five islands in the study area and has a value of −0.157 (mean square error of 0.212). Multiple linear regression techniques were used to develop regression equations that relate basin and climatic characteristics to peak flows at streamgages. The regression equations can be applied to estimate flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. The study area was split into 10 regions—2 regions per island, generally following a leeward/windward division—containing from 9 to 49 streamgages each. The final regression equations for each region were determined with generalized least-squares analysis using the USGS weighted-multiple-linear regression (WREG) program. The standard error of prediction at the 1-percent AEP for the regression equations ranged from 18 to 164 percent; the pseudo coefficient of determination (pseudo-R2) at the 1-percent AEP ranged from 46 to 100 percent. The regression equations performed well for all regions except leeward Molokaʻi and southern Island of Hawaiʻi; for all other regions, the pseudo-R2 values ranged from about 75 to 100 percent. Compared to the regression equations developed by Oki and others (2010), the regression equations in this study generally showed modest improvements, although the magnitude of differences varied for each region. Peak-flow estimates at the 238 streamgages included in this study are improved by weighting the at-site statistics computed with PeakFQ and the predicted flows based on the regression equations. Results of this study—including the final peak-flow estimates at streamgages and the regional regression equations—are implemented in the USGS StreamStats web application (U.S. Geological Survey, 2023, StreamStats: https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ ). StreamStats provides a consistent approach for obtaining peak-flow estimates at streamgages and for applying the regional regression equations for estimating peak flows at ungaged locations.

Hawaii

Working group on American Eel (WGAMEEL; outputs from 2024 meeting)

The Working Group on American Eel (WGAMEEL) met virtually three times in 2022-2024 to address the five Terms of Reference (ToRs) of its three-year term. The first two ToRs tasked WGAMEEL with listing and evaluating data on American eel landings, abundance indices, and spatial and habitat data and also to describe assessment methods used in Canada and the US. Canada-wide American eel trajectory was estimated using 12 fishery-independent datasets. Generally, longer datasets had more negative trends than shorter ones. Limiting data to the post-2000 years produced fewer negative trends that did not differ from zero, suggesting the observed declines occurred pre-2000. Spatial modelling for American eel requires knowledge and mapping that covers the breadth of habitat types occupied by the species, including freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments. In recent years there has been an expansion of online databases with data from the aquatic environment, particularly in freshwater, with estuarine and marine data less consistently documented. This report broadly compiles abiotic data series of relevance to American eel. A larger challenge for spatial modelling will be acquiring enough high quality, georeferenced biological data sets with suitable observations to assess occurrence, abundance, and trends over time in a spatial framework. The third ToR considered Indigenous Knowledge Systems for American eel. A survey reaching First Nations representatives from four Canadian provinces confirmed the cultural importance of eels in Indigenous communities, and that Indigenous knowledge possessed by the participant groups are place-based and contextual, especially regarding threats impacting eels. The final two ToRs focused on identifying stock assessment modelling approaches applicable to American and European eel, and assessing whether any of these approaches might be appropriate for American eel management moving forward. WGAMEEL evaluated the various approaches for assessing American eel or providing management advice. Two approaches that could be completed in the next few years because of their minimal data needs are index-based methods and catch-only method. A suite of approaches considered by WGAMEEL that would take more time and data were spatial or habitat models, management strategy evaluation, and spawner-per-recruit (SPR) models potentially paired with meta-population models.

ICES Scientific Reports

Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park

This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, natural and cultural resource planners, and the climate change core team who led the scenario planning project identified priority resource management topics and associated climate sensitivities. Next, the climate change core team used this information to create a set of four divergent climate futures—summaries of relevant climate data from individual climate projections—to encompass the range of ways climate could change in coming decades in the park. Participants in the scenario planning workshop then developed climate futures into robust climate-resource scenarios that considered expert-elicited resource impacts and identified potential management responses. Finally, the scenario-based resource responses identified by park staff and subject matter experts were used to integrate climate-informed adaptations into resource stewardship goals and activities for the park's Resource Stewardship Strategy. This process of engaging resource managers in climate change scenario planning ensures that their management and planning decisions are informed by assessments of critical future climate uncertainties.

South Dakota

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection results changed between the two approaches, and incorporating observer knowledge in cause-of-death increased the variability associated with parameter estimates when compared to the traditional approach. These differences between the two approaches can impact reported results, and therefore, it is critical to explicitly incorporate expert knowledge in statistical methods to ensure rigorous inference.

Ecology and Evolution

Trends in biodiversity and habitat quantification tools used for market‐based conservation in the United States

Market-based conservation mechanisms are designed to facilitate conservation and mitigation actions for habitat and biodiversity. Their potential is partly hindered, however, by issues surrounding the quantification tools used to assess habitat quality and functionality. Specifically, a lack of transparency and standardization in tool development and gaps in tool availability are cited concerns. To address these issues, we collected information about tools used in United States conservation mechanisms such as eco-label and payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs, conservation banking, and habitat exchanges. We summarized information about tools and explored trends among and within mechanisms using criteria detailing geographic, ecological, and technical features of tools. We identified 69 tools that assessed at least 34 species and 39 habitat types. Where tools reported pricing, 98% were freely available. Most tools required a moderate or greater level of user skill. More tools were applied to states along the west coast of the United States than elsewhere and the level of tool transferability varied markedly among mechanisms. Tools most often incorporated conditions at numerous spatial scales, frequently addressed multiple risks to site viability, and required from 1 to 83 data inputs. Finally, average tool complexity estimates were similar among all mechanisms except PES programs. Our results illustrate the diversity among tools in their ecological features, data needs, and geographic application, supporting concerns about a lack of standardization. However, consistency among tools in user skill requirements, the incorporation of multiple spatial scales, and complexity highlight important commonalities that could serve as a starting point for establishing more standardized tool development and feature incorporation processes. Greater standardization in tool design may not only expand market participation, but may also facilitate a needed assessment of the effectiveness of market-based conservation.

Conservation Biology

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2003

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2003 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The study team continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). A computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups is currently under development. Once complete, we intend to use it to verify the accuracy of the rules using known bears and their telemetry locations in test runs. We hope to have this work complete by summer 2004. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established mortality quotas at 4% of the minimum population estimate derived from female with COY data and no more than 30% of the 4% (1.2%) could be female bears. Simulation modeling (Harris 1984) established sustainable mortality at around 6% of the population. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris. A Wildlife Monograph has been drafted and submitted for consideration as a publication. We anticipate final word sometime during winter 2005. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine has been published (Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770). A copy can be found on the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. The manuscript on fish consumption is in final review and should be published in 2004. We began a new study in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black ( Ursus americanus ) bears. We will employ a new form of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. We tested 2 collars during the fall of 2003 and provide a summary of the results. We will attempt to deploy several of these collars during the 2004 field season. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Montana

Vegetation communities at Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

New and existing data were used to describe and map vegetation communities at Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge. Existing data had been gathered during the growing seasons of 2002, 2003, and 2004. New data were collected in 2007 to describe previously unsampled communities and communities within which insufficient data had been collected. Plot data and field observations were used to describe 17 natural and semi-natural communities at the Association level of the National Vegetation Classification System (NVCS). Four ruderal communities not included in the NVCS are also described. Data were used to inform delineation of communities using aerial photos from 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007. During this process, eleven additional land cover classes including cultural features, managed vegetation communities, and water features were identified. These features were mapped, some were described, but no vegetation data were collected. In 2009, nearly all community polygons were field visited and classified to the Association level. When necessary, polygon boundaries were adjusted based on field observations. The final map includes 482 polygons of 27 land cover classes encompassing 3,174 hectares on 5 units of the refuge. Data and information will inform the development of the refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan.

Missouri

Magnitude and frequency of rural floods in the southeastern United States, 2006: Volume 1, Georgia

A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. Annual peak-flow data through September 2006 were analyzed for 943 streamgaging stations having 10 or more years of data on rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the 943 stations by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows for each station to a Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation of flood-frequency estimates for these streamgaging stations, a new value for the generalized-skew coefficient was developed by using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgaging stations were computed by using a geographical information system and automated computer algorithms. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 stream-gaging stations were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Five hydrologic regions were developed for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and percentage of the drainage basin within each hydrologic region. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.5 to 47.7 percent.

Georgia

Estimation of selected streamflow statistics for a network of low-flow partial-record stations in areas affected by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) in Maryland

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment, operated a network of 20 low-flow partial-record stations during 2008 in a region that extends from southwest of Baltimore to the northeastern corner of Maryland to obtain estimates of selected streamflow statistics at the station locations. The study area is expected to face a substantial influx of new residents and businesses as a result of military and civilian personnel transfers associated with the Federal Base Realignment and Closure Act of 2005. The estimated streamflow statistics, which include monthly 85-percent duration flows, the 10-year recurrence-interval minimum base flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, are needed to provide a better understanding of the availability of water resources in the area to be affected by base-realignment activities. Streamflow measurements collected for this study at the low-flow partial-record stations and measurements collected previously for 8 of the 20 stations were related to concurrent daily flows at nearby index streamgages to estimate the streamflow statistics. Three methods were used to estimate the streamflow statistics and two methods were used to select the index streamgages. Of the three methods used to estimate the streamflow statistics, two of them--the Moments and MOVE1 methods--rely on correlating the streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record stations with concurrent streamflows at nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgages to determine the estimates. These methods, recommended for use by the U.S. Geological Survey, generally require about 10 streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record station. The third method transfers the streamflow statistics from the index streamgage to the partial-record station based on the average of the ratios of the measured streamflows at the partial-record station to the concurrent streamflows at the index streamgage. This method can be used with as few as one pair of streamflow measurements made on a single streamflow recession at the low-flow partial-record station, although additional pairs of measurements will increase the accuracy of the estimates. Errors associated with the two correlation methods generally were lower than the errors associated with the flow-ratio method, but the advantages of the flow-ratio method are that it can produce reasonably accurate estimates from streamflow measurements much faster and at lower cost than estimates obtained using the correlation methods. The two index-streamgage selection methods were (1) selection based on the highest correlation coefficient between the low-flow partial-record station and the index streamgages, and (2) selection based on Euclidean distance, where the Euclidean distance was computed as a function of geographic proximity and the basin characteristics: drainage area, percentage of forested area, percentage of impervious area, and the base-flow recession time constant, t. Method 1 generally selected index streamgages that were significantly closer to the low-flow partial-record stations than method 2. The errors associated with the estimated streamflow statistics generally were lower for method 1 than for method 2, but the differences were not statistically significant. The flow-ratio method for estimating streamflow statistics at low-flow partial-record stations was shown to be independent from the two correlation-based estimation methods. As a result, final estimates were determined for eight low-flow partial-record stations by weighting estimates from the flow-ratio method with estimates from one of the two correlation methods according to the respective variances of the estimates. Average standard errors of estimate for the final estimates ranged from 90.0 to 7.0 percent, with an average value of 26.5 percent. Average standard errors of estimate for the weighted estimates were, on average, 4.3 percent less than the best average standard errors of estima

Scientific Investigations Report

Population biology of the Florida manatee: An overview

In the following overview we discuss progress toward meeting the three objectives of the 1992 workshop: to provide a synthesis of existing information about manatee population biology; to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of current data sets and approaches to research on manatee population biology; and to provide recommendations for research. We discuss progress in six topics that were assigned to working groups at the workshop: aerial survey and estimation of population size, reproduction, age structure, mortality, photoidentification and estimation of survival, and integration and modeling of population data. The overview includes recommendations by working group participants (*2 0'Shea et al. 1992). This workshop on manatee population biology was the most recent conference on the topic since 1978 (*BrowneIl and Rails 1981). Partly as a result of recommendations made at the 1978 workshop, several long-term population-related research projects were established. Therefore, we also measure progress in relation to knowledge available at the time of the earlier workshop. Finally, we provide a brief synopsis of pertinent new information on manatee population biology that became available between the 1992 workshop and publication of the proceedings and our conclusions about the status of the Florida manatee.

Information and Technology Report

Shifting currents: Progress, setbacks, and shifts in policy and practice

The Wisconsin Academy’s initial Waters of Wisconsin project (WOW I) facilitated a statewide conversation between 2000 and 2003 around one main question: How can we ensure healthy aquatic ecosystems and clean, abundant water supplies for tomorrow’s Wisconsin? Robust participation in this conversation underscored the important role citizens have in the stewardship of our waters, and we found enthusiastic support for farsighted policies—based on sound science—to manage our water legacy. Overall, we found that Wisconsinites cherish water and see our waters as essential to our way of life in Wisconsin. Nationally, our state ranks 25th in land area but has the fourth-highest area covered by water. Wisconsin is 20th in population but is second only to Florida in the number of fishing licenses sold each year. Clean water supports billions of dollars’ worth of economic activity through tourism, agriculture, and industry. From the Northwoods cabin to the Port of Milwaukee to the Wisconsin Dells, water shapes our state’s identity. Our tradition of safeguarding Wisconsin’s waters is grounded in values such as responsibility to family and future generations, respect for land and wildlife, protecting public health and safety, and caring for water as a common good, as articulated in the state’s Public Trust Doctrine (see page 9). These deeply held values have also shaped a conservation ethic, and its legacy has served many generations who depend upon and enjoy the waters of the state. Through WOW I, we identified the need to overcome the institutional and disciplinary separation of science, policy, and management protocols through a more integrated approach to water management. WOW also affirmed that the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and other public agencies play a critical role in sound scientific application, citizen participation, and the practical implementation of policy while balancing public and private interests toward the goal of a clean water future. More than a decade has passed since our first statewide WOW conversation and the report that captured recommendations from its participants: Waters of Wisconsin: The Future of Our Aquatic Ecosystems and Resources. Drawing from a diverse and growing set of stakeholders from across the state, the Wisconsin Academy initiated a new conversation in 2012 (known as WOW II) to assess progress in regard to our 2003 recommendations. We also sought to review the status of waters in Wisconsin today. The result of this renewed conversation is Shifting Currents: Progress, Setbacks, and Shifts in Policy and Practice. The new report assesses progress in brief, and explores in greater depth the continuing and emerging challenges to water quality, supply, and aquatic ecosystems in Wisconsin. In this report, we first review the context and frameworks for public decision-making about water and then examine some of the root causes—or “drivers”—and ecological stressors that underlie many of the symptoms we see in the form of pollution or ecosystem degradation in Wisconsin. This is followed by a summary of current water issues, many of which had been identified in the 2003 report and remain relevant today. We examine progress since 2003 but also setbacks, and discuss issues that we are likely to continue to face in the coming decades, including controlling agricultural runoff, mitigating climate change and grappling with its effects on the state’s waters, protecting groundwater from bacterial contamination and other pollutants, and preventing groundwater depletion. We also attempt to anticipate issues on the horizon. We offer a deeper look at some particular challenges, such as phosphorus pollution and groundwater contamination. We then consider the current decision-making framework and how it is shaping our capacity to respond to water challenges in Wisconsin. Finally, we offer recommendations and identify opportunities to safeguard Wisconsin’s waters in the decades ahead. From its inception, the Wisconsin Academy’s Waters of Wisconsin Initiative has brought together a diverse community of experts from across the state and from varied fields and areas of interest, to address challenges and seize opportunities related to our precious waters. We have done so as a matter of both principle and practical reality: the state of our waters reflects the ways we interact not only with them, but also with one another and our institutions. The WOW Initiative has aimed to provide guidance for Wisconsin citizens in sustaining the health of our aquatic ecosystems and the resilience of our water supplies over the long term.

Report

The 1996-2009 borehole dilatometer installations, operation, and maintenance at sites in Long Valley Caldera, CA

High seismicity levels with accelerating uplift (under the resurgent dome) in Long Valley caldera in the eastern Sierra Nevada from 1989 to 1997, triggered upgrades to dilational strainmeters and other instrumentation installed in the early 1980's following a series of magnitude 6 earthquakes. This included two additional high-resolution borehole strainmeters and replacement of the failed strainmeter at Devil's Postpile. The purpose of the borehole-monitoring network is to monitor crustal deformation and other geophysical parameters associated with volcanic intrusions and earthquakes in the Long Valley Caldera. Additional instrumentation was added at these sites to improve the capability of providing continuous monitoring of the magma source under the resurgent dome. Sites were selected in regions of hard crystalline rock, where the expected signals from magmatic activity were calculated to be a maximum and the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 4 or greater is large. For the most part, the dilatometers were installed near existing arrays of surface tiltmeters, seismometers, level line, and GPS arrays. At each site, attempts are made to separate tectonic and volcanic signals from known noise sources in each instrument type. Each of these sites was planned to be a multi-parameter monitoring site, which included measurements of 3-component seismic velocity and acceleration, borehole strain, tilt, pore pressure and magnetic field. Using seismicity, geophysical knowledge, geologic and topographic maps, and geologists recommendations, lists of preliminary sites were chosen. Additional requirements were access, and telemetry constraints. When the final site choice was made, a permit was obtained from the U.S. Forest Service. Following this selection process, two new borehole sites were installed on the north and south side of the Long Valley Caldera in June of 1999. One site was located near Big Spring Campground to the east of Crestview. The second site was located at the Motocross Track (near Old Mammoth) in the South Moat. This report describes the methods used to install these strainmeters and various other types of borehole instruments at these sites together with the site at Devil's Postpile and telemeter the data obtained to the USGS base in Menlo Park, Calif.

California

Upper Mississippi River Restoration future hydrology meeting series

The Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) program, a broad partnership of State and Federal agencies administered by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, integrates ecosystem monitoring, research, and modeling to rehabilitate habitat and evaluate ecosystem trends over time in the Upper Mississippi River System. Hydrologic data are integral to the UMRR program because they are used in scientific research, decision-making, and restoration project planning. However, a lack of quantitative hydrologic data representing potential future conditions limits the ability to complete informative research on how future conditions may affect river ecology, achieve management goals, and design restoration projects for 50-year horizons. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers led a series of workshops with UMRR partners to (1) prioritize needs for understanding future hydrology, (2) discuss appropriate datasets that could address these needs, and (3) develop a plan for acquiring and distributing a hydrologic dataset of potential future conditions. Agency priorities for understanding future hydrology were broad, spanning ecologic, geomorphic, resource management, and engineering disciplines, and were identified for a range of spatial (project site, navigation pool, reach, system) and temporal (daily, seasonal, annual) scales. The LOcalized Constructed Analogs-Variable Infiltration Capacity-mizuRoute hydrologic data products were identified as a potential source of off-the-shelf data to meet UMRR priority needs but warranted a robust quantitative evaluation. The final meeting in the series scoped a proposal to evaluate the LOcalized Constructed Analogs-Variable Infiltration Capacity-mizuRoute hydrologic data products for use in UMRR applications, including contingencies if the data were determined to be unreliable.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

The drainage and glacial history of the Still River Valley, southwestern Connecticut

The Still River is located in southwestern Connecticut. From its origin on the New York border, it passes through Danbury and flows northward to its junction with the Housatonic River in New Milford. Interpretation of the Still River's history is based on its surficial geology and bedrock topography. High bedrock surfaces to the south, east, and west of the river show that its preglacial direction was probably to the north. The Still River has developed along the easily eroded Inwood Marble as a subsequent tributary to the Housatonic. Pleistocene glaciation left a variety of deposits in the Still Valley. The oldest of these is the 'lower' till, of either Illinoian or Altonian age. This till unit is overlain in turn by the Woodfordian 'upper' till. The upper till has basal and ablation facies. Ice-contact deposits formed in the fringing stagnation zone of the last retreating ice sheet. As the glacier withdrew along the Still Valley, preglacial Lake Danbury was impounded against the highlands to the south. Glacial retreat opened progressively lower outlets for this lake. Its final stage was contained by a till (?) barrier at the Housatonic Gorge in New Milford. Filling of the lake by glacial outwash was soon followed by downcutting of the dam and establishment of the modern Housatonic and Still River channels.

Open-File Report

Petroleum systems used to determine the assessment units in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California

For the San Joaquin Basin Province in California (fig. 8.1), six petroleum systems were identified, mapped, and described to provide the basis for the five total petroleum systems (TPS) and ten related assessment units (AU) used in the 2003 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Oil and Gas Assessment (table 8.1; Gautier and others, 2004; Hosford Scheirer, 2007). The petroleum pools in the province were allocated to each petroleum system on the basis of (1) geochemical composition as described by Lillis and Magoon (this volume, chapter 9) and Lillis and others (this volume, chapter 10), (2) reservoir rock nomenclature (fig 8.2; appendix 8.1 and appendix 8.2) as described by Hosford Scheirer and Magoon (this volume, chapter 5), and (3) the volume of oil and gas discovered for each petroleum system by system, flank, and trap type (tables 8.2, 8.3 and 8.4). For this assessment, each petroleum system was determined, followed by the TPS from one or more petroleum systems. For example, the Miocene TPS includes two petroleum systems, the McLure-Tulare(!) and Antelope-Stevens(!) (notation described in Petroleum System Name section, below). Magoon and Schmoker (2000) describe how the TPS is used in this and the USGS world assessments. This chapter describes the six petroleum systems used to make five total petroleum systems in this San Joaquin Basin Province assessment. The figures and tables for each petroleum system and TPS are as follows: (1) the San Joaquin(?) petroleum system or the Neogene Nonassociated Gas TPS is a natural gas system in the southeast part of the province (figs. 8.3 through 8.8; table 8.5; this volume, chapter 22); (2) the Miocene TPS (this volume, chapters 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17) includes the McLure-Tulare(!) petroleum system north of the Bakersfield Arch (figs. 8.9 through 8.13; table 8.6), and the Antelope-Stevens(!) petroleum system south of the arch (figs. 8.14 through 8.18; table 8.7), and is summarized in figure 8.19; (3) the Eocene TPS (this volume, chapters 18 and 19) combines two petroleum systems, the Tumey-Temblor(.) covering much of the province (figs. 8.20 through 8.24; table 8.8) and the underlying Kreyenhagen-Temblor(!) (figs. 8.25 through 8.29: table 8.9), and is summarized in figure 8.30; (4) the Eocene-Miocene Composite TPS, formed by combining the Miocene and Eocene TPS (this volume, chapter 20); and (5) the Moreno-Nortonville(.) is both a petroleum system and a TPS consisting mainly of natural gas in the northern part of the province (figs. 8.31 through 8.36: table 8.10; this volume, chapter 21). Oil samples with geochemistry from surface seeps and wells used to map these petroleum systems are listed in table 8.11. Finally, the volume of oil and gas expelled by each pod of active source rock was calculated and compared with the discovered hydrocarbons in each petroleum system (figs. 8.37 through 8.39; tables 8.12 and 8.13).

California

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery performance according to the literature

Introduction The need to increase the efficiency of oil recovery and environmental concerns are bringing to prominence the use of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a tertiary recovery agent. Assessment of the impact of flooding with CO 2 all eligible reservoirs in the United States not yet undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) requires making the best possible use of the experience gained in 40 years of applications. Review of the publicly available literature has located relevant CO 2 -EOR information for 53 units (fields, reservoirs, pilot areas) in the United States and 17 abroad. As the world simultaneously faces an increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere and a higher demand for fossil fuels, the CO 2 -EOR process continues to gain popularity for its efficiency as a tertiary recovery agent and for the potential for having some CO 2 trapped in the subsurface as an unintended consequence of the enhanced production (Advanced Resources International and Melzer Consulting, 2009). More extensive application of CO 2 -EOR worldwide, however, is not making it significantly easier to predict the exact outcome of the CO 2 flooding in new reservoirs. The standard approach to examine and manage risks is to analyze the intended target by conducting laboratory work, running simulation models, and, finally, gaining field experience with a pilot test. This approach, though, is not always possible. For example, assessment of the potential of CO 2 -EOR at the national level in a vast country such as the United States requires making forecasts based on information already available. Although many studies are proprietary, the published literature has provided reviews of CO 2 -EOR projects. Yet, there is always interest in updating reports and analyzing the information under new perspectives. Brock and Bryan (1989) described results obtained during the earlier days of CO 2 -EOR from 1972 to 1987. Most of the recovery predictions, however, were based on intended injections of 30 percent the size of the reservoir’s hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV), and the predictions in most cases badly missed the actual recoveries because of the embryonic state of tertiary recovery in general and CO 2 flooding in particular at the time. Brock and Bryan (1989), for example, reported for the Weber Sandstone in the Rangely oil field in Colorado, an expected recovery of 7.5 percent of the original oil in place (OOIP) after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 30 percent of the HCPV, but Clark (2012) reported that after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 46 percent of the HCPV, the actual recovery was 4.8 percent of the OOIP. Decades later, the numbers by Brock and Bryan (1989) continue to be cited as part of expanded reviews, such as the one by Kuuskraa and Koperna (2006). Other comprehensive reviews including recovery factors are those of Christensen and others (2001) and Lake and Walsh (2008). The Oil and Gas Journal (O&GJ) periodically reports on active CO 2 -EOR operations worldwide, but those releases do not include recovery factors. The monograph by Jarrell and others (2002) remains the most technically comprehensive publication on CO 2 flooding, but it does not cover recovery factors either. This chapter is a review of the literature found in a search for information about CO 2 -EOR. It has been prepared as part of a project by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the incremental oil production that would be technically feasible by CO 2 flooding of all suitable oil reservoirs in the country not yet undergoing tertiary recovery.

Scientific Investigations Report

Use of Water-Quality Indicators and Environmental Tracers to Determine the Fate and Transport of Recycled Water in Angeles County, California

Tertiary-treated municipal wastewater (recycled water) has been used to replenish the Central Basin in Los Angeles County for over 40 years. Therefore, this area provides an excellent location to investigate (1) the fate and transport of wastewater constituents as they travel from the point of recharge to points of withdrawal, and (2) the long-term effects that artificial recharge using recycled water has on the quality of the ground-water basin. The U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting such investigations in this area for about 10 years, beginning in 1992. For this investigation, a variety of inorganic, organic, and isotopic constituents were analyzed in samples from 23 production wells within 500 feet of the San Gabriel and Rio Hondo Coastal Basin Spreading Grounds, and tritium/helium-3, chlorofluorocarbons, dissolved gases, and nitrogen isotopes were analyzed in five multiple-well monitoring sites along a 10-mile flow path extending from just upgradient of the spreading grounds southward through the Central Basin. Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients and level of significance calculated for about 40 water-quality indicators and several physical features show significant correlations between numerous inorganic and organic constituents that indicate the presence of wastewater. On the basis of a simple two-member mixing model, chloride, boron, ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nanometers, and excitation-emission fluorescence yielded the most reasonable estimates of wastewater percentages in the production wells. Tritium/helium-3 age determinations indicated that samples of ground water tested range in age from less than 2 to more than 50 years. Chloride and boron concentrations, along with tritium/helium-3 age determinations, indicate more rapid recharge and (or) displacement of pre-existing ground water at the San Gabriel Coastal Basin Spreading Grounds than at the Rio Hondo Coastal Basin Spreading Grounds. Nitrogen-15 enrichment of the ground-water nitrate and dissolved nitrogen indicates that denitrification, an important process for the removal of nitrate at the shallower depths beneath the spreading grounds, continues to occur at distances of several miles from the spreading grounds and over a period of many years. Analysis of dissolved gases shows that areas that contain recycled water have no detectable methane, whereas methane is present in the native ground water older than 50 years. The absence of methane in the younger ground water suggests that artificial recharge using recycled water has the desirable effect of increasing slightly the redox potential of the ground-water basin. Finally, measured chlorofluorocarbon concentrations and tritium/helium-3 age determinations indicate that chlorofluorocarbon concentrations are markedly elevated above atmosphere-water equilibrium in ground water older than about 20 years but still young enough to contain recycled water.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Western grebe, Aechmophorus occidentalis, wintering biology and contaminant accumulation in Commencement Bay, Puget Sound, Washington

Western Grebes wintering at the head of Commencement Bay (bordering the waterways) accumulated significant amounts of mercury, arsenic, DDE, PCBs, chlordanes, and perhaps cadmium and HCB between 17 October 1985 and 6 February 1986. No change in selenium or lead was detected, but copper declined significantly. Western Grebes were likely to accumulate even higher levels of certain contaminants because they remained in Commencement Bay for an additional 3 months after the final collection. Remige moult and bursa length were used to separate five individuals believed to represent one age class, from the remainder of the October collection. These birds, perhaps nonbreeders spending one continuous year in Puget Sound, contained the 5 highest PCB, 5 of the 8 highest DDE, and 2 of the 3 highest mercury concentrations. No evidence was found in the literature to suggest the contaminant concentrations we reported would adversely impact the Western Grebe population. As expected, lipid content of carcasses increased significantly from October (15.5%) to February (28.8%).

Canadian Field-Naturalist