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USGS2013

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Miocene phosphatization of rocks from the summit of Rio Grande Rise, Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Marine phosphorites are an important part of the oceanic phosphorus cycle and are related to the effects of long-term global climate changes. We use petrography, mineralogy, rare earth elements contents, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr-determined carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) and calcite ages to investigate the paragenesis and history of phosphatization of carbonate sediments, limestones, ferromanganese crusts, and ironstones from the summit of Rio Grande Rise (RGR), Southwest Atlantic Ocean. Phosphatization of all the rock types occurred throughout the Miocene from 20.2 to 6.8 million years ago (Ma), and occasionally during the Quaternary, mainly through the cementation of carbonate sediments by cryptocrystalline CFA, likely involving the dissolution of the smaller size fraction of foraminifera-nannofossil ooze. Porosity/permeability and abundance of fine calcite material were important factors determining the intensity of phosphatization of the various rock types. Phosphatization was initiated during a transition to a more dynamic circulation system in the South Atlantic Ocean, which remobilized phosphorus from deeper waters and increased primary productivity that culminated with the middle-Miocene Climatic Optimum between ∼17 and 14.8 Ma. The relatively shallow-water depth of RGR summit during the Miocene provided proximity to the oxygen minimum zone, a reservoir for reactive phosphorus, especially during periods of enhanced phosphorus cycling spurred by surface primary productivity. The cessation of phosphatization at RGR resulted from a rapidly cooling and dry climate that characterized the Miocene-Pliocene transition. Our results support previous observations that periods of broadly intensified ocean circulation and local hydrodynamic changes were the key paleoceanographic links to phosphorite formation.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2026

Microclimate mediates the strength and direction of avian biotic interactions

Theory predicts that that the strength and direction of species interactions can shift from being competitive in benign environments toward being facilitative in stressful environments. However, the environmental context dependency of species interactions has rarely been tested in animal communities. We capitalized on a 15-year, landscape-scale dataset, collected annually in a relatively stable old-growth forest environment to test the long-held hypothesis that the strength and direction of species interactions might be mediated by climatic conditions. It is generally accepted that competitive and facilitative interactions drive the distributions of many species. Using multi-species dynamic occupancy models applied to long-term data, we tested whether annual settlement by bird species could affect either the persistence or settlement by other phylogenetically related species, and whether these interactions are mediated by microclimate. We found that species interactions were influenced by microclimate for some, but not all avian species pairs. Related species pairs more often showed settlement dynamics that were indicative of attraction rather than repulsion. In some cases, competitive interactions at warmer microclimates flipped to become facilitative in colder ones. However, the reverse was also true: facilitative interactions amplified for some species under warm conditions. Furthermore, species pairs that were closely related were more likely to exhibit competitive relationships along at least part of the microclimatic gradient. Our results highlight the importance of using long-term data to incorporate competitive and facilitative interactions into species distribution models and support the notion that the strength and direction of species interactions can be dependent on microclimatic environmental conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2012

Threshold effects of flood duration on the vegetation and soils of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

Most large rivers have experienced major changes in hydrology and land use over the past century, with concomitant effects on sedimentation, nutrient cycling and biodiversity. To restore and/or enhance these ecosystems, managers need to know where their efforts are most likely to succeed under current hydrologic regimes as well as under potential future hydrologic regimes. We therefore examined changes in forest vegetation and soils across a hydrologic gradient, expressed as flood duration during the growing season, for 320 km of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Soil texture was highly variable but trended toward finer grained sediments and >5% organic matter as flood duration increased from 0% to ~40% of the growing season. Beyond 40%, soil texture was exclusively silt plus clay with >5% organic matter. The diversity of both the understory and overstory tree communities was also highly variable at sites that flooded for <40% of the growing season. However, understory diversity decreased as flood duration increased from 0% to ~25% of the growing season and overstory diversity declined as flood duration increased from 0% to ~40% of the growing season. Diversity estimates for both strata were uniformly low at sites that flooded for longer than ~40% of the growing season. Beyond this point the proportional abundance of Acer saccharinum in the overstory exceeded 70%. Our results suggest that there is a threshold along the elevation gradient of this floodplain, corresponding with flood durations lasting ~40% of the growing season. At lower elevation sites, flooding exerts primary control over forest soils and vegetation, restricting the former to silt plus clay with higher organic matter and the latter to a few highly flood tolerant species. The existence of such thresholds have implications for management of floodplain soil nutrient dynamics and plant diversity under existing hydrologic regimes, more natural hydrologic regimes and more extreme hydrologic regimes that may result from climate change.

Iowa;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

A river basin spatial model to quantitively advance understanding of riverine tree response dynamics to water availability and hydrological management

Ecological condition continues to decline in arid and semi-arid river basins globally due to hydrological over-abstraction combined with changing climatic conditions. Whilst provision of water for the environment has been a primary approach to alleviate ecological decline, how to accurately monitor changes in riverine trees at fine spatial and temporal scales, remains a substantial challenge. This is further complicated by constantly changing water availability across expansive river basins with varying climatic zones. Within, we combine rare, fine-scale, high frequency temporal in-situ field collected data with machine learning and remote sensing, to provide a robust model that enables broadscale monitoring of physiological tree water stress response to environmental changes via actual evapotranspiration (ET). Physiological variation of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (River Red Gum) and E. largiflorens (Black Box) trees across 10 study locations in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, was captured instantaneously using sap flow sensors, substantially reducing tree response lags encountered by monitoring visual canopy changes. Actual ET measurement of both species was used to bias correct a national spatial ET product where a Random Forest model was trained using continuous timeseries of in-situ data of up to four years. Precise monthly AMLETT ( A ustralia-wide M achine L earning ET for T rees) ET outputs in 30 m pixel resolution from 2012 to 2021, were derived by incorporating additional remote sensing layers such as soil moisture, land surface temperature, radiation and EVI and NDVI in the Random Forest model. Landsat and Sentinal-2 correlation results between in-situ ET and AMLETT ET returned R 2 of 0.94 (RMSE 6.63 mm period −1 ) and 0.92 (RMSE 6.89 mm period −1 ), respectively. In comparison, correlation between in-situ ET and a national ET product returned R 2 of 0.44 (RMSE 34.08 mm period −1 ) highlighting the need for bias correction to generate accurate absolute ET values. The AMLETT method presented here, enhances environmental management in river basins worldwide. Such robust broadscale monitoring can inform water accounting and importantly, assist decisions on where to prioritize water for the environment to restore and protect key ecological assets and preserve floodplain and riparian ecological function.

The Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2011

Paleohydrologic phenomena recorded by lake sediments

Hydrologic phenomena are dynamic, so their understanding and prediction are difficult and challenging. Many are cyclic, ranging from diurnal, seasonal, and annual cycles to climatic fluctuations of many hundreds or thousands of years. Predicting the magnitude and recurrence intervals of long-term fluctuations of these phenomena is a primary concern of hydrologists. The best data upon which to base predictions are those that directly measure a hydrologic phenomenon, such as stream discharge, lake level, and precipitation. Programs for collection of these data over a large area on a scientific basis, however, are less than 100 years old-not a very sound statistical base for predicting events that have recurrence intervals of at least that long.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2003

A reservoir of nitrate beneath desert soils

A large reservoir of bioavailable nitrogen (up to ∼10 4 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare, as nitrate) has been previously overlooked in studies of global nitrogen distribution. The reservoir has been accumulating in subsoil zones of arid regions throughout the Holocene. Consideration of the subsoil reservoir raises estimates of vadose-zone nitrogen inventories by 14 to 71% for warm deserts and arid shrublands worldwide and by 3 to 16% globally. Subsoil nitrate accumulation indicates long-term leaching from desert soils, impelling further evaluation of nutrient dynamics in xeric ecosystems. Evidence that subsoil accumulations are readily mobilized raises concern about groundwater contamination after land-use or climate change.

Science↗

USGS2006

Long-term trends of bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloater Coregonus hoyi . Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2023

CONUS404: The NCAR-USGS 4-km long-term regional hydroclimate reanalysis over the CONUS

A unique, high-resolution, hydroclimate reanalysis, 40-plus-year (October 1979–September 2021), 4 km (named as CONUS404), has been created using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model by dynamically downscaling of the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate dataset (ERA5) over the conterminous United States. The paper describes the approach for generating the dataset, provides an initial evaluation, including biases, and indicates how interested users can access the data. The motivation for creating this National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborative dataset is to provide research and end-user communities with a high-resolution, self-consistent, long-term, continental-scale hydroclimate dataset appropriate for forcing hydrological models and conducting hydroclimate scientific analyses over the conterminous United States. The data are archived and accessible on the USGS Black Pearl tape system and on the NCAR supercomputer Campaign storage system.

Continental United States↗

USGS2009

Relations between Municipal Water Use and Selected Meteorological Parameters and Drought Indices, East-Central and Northeast Florida

Water-use data collected between 1992 and 2006 at eight municipal water-supply utilities in east-central and northeast Florida were analyzed to identify seasonal trends in use and to quantify monthly variations. Regression analyses were applied to identify significant correlations between water use and selected meteorological parameters and drought indices. Selected parameters and indices include precipitation (P), air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), available water (P-PET), monthly changes in these parameters (Delta P, Delta T, Delta PET, Delta(P-PET), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Selected utilities include the City of Daytona Beach (Daytona), the City of Eustis (Eustis), Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU), Jacksonville Electric Authority (JEA), Orange County Utilities (OCU), Orlando Utilities Commission (OUC), Seminole County Utilities (SCU), and the City of St. Augustine (St. Augustine). Water-use rates at these utilities in 2006 ranged from about 3.2 million gallons per day at Eustis to about 131 million gallons per day at JEA. Total water-use rates increased at all utilities throughout the 15-year period of record, ranging from about 4 percent at Daytona to greater than 200 percent at OCU and SCU. Metered rates, however, decreased at six of the eight utilities, ranging from about 2 percent at OCU and OUC to about 17 percent at Eustis. Decreases in metered rates occurred because the number of metered connections increased at a greater rate than did total water use, suggesting that factors other than just population growth may play important roles in water-use dynamics. Given the absence of a concurrent trend in precipitation, these decreases can likely be attributed to changes in non-climatic factors such as water-use type, usage of reclaimed water, water-use restrictions, demographics, and so forth. When averaged for the eight utilities, metered water-use rates depict a clear seasonal pattern in which rates were lowest in the winter and greatest in the late spring. Averaged water-use rates ranged from about 9 percent below the 15-year daily mean in January to about 11 percent above the daily mean in May. Water-use rates were found to be statistically correlated to meteorological parameters and drought indices, and to be influenced by system memory. Metered rates (in gallons per day per active metered connection) were consistently found to be influenced by P, T, PET, and P-PET and changes in these parameters that occurred in prior months. In the single-variant analyses, best correlations were obtained by fitting polynomial functions to plots of metered rates versus moving-averaged values of selected parameters (R2 values greater than 0.50 at three of eight sites). Overall, metered water-use rates were best correlated with the 3- to 4-month moving average of Delta T or Delta PET (R2 values up to 0.66), whereas the full suite of meteorological parameters was best correlated with metered rates at Daytona and least correlated with rates at St. Augustine. Similarly, metered rates were substantially better correlated with moving-averaged values of precipitation (significant at all eight sites) than with single (current) monthly values (significant at only three sites). Total and metered water-use rates were positively correlated with T, PET, Delta P, Delta T, and Delta PET, and negatively correlated with P, P-PET, Delta (P-PET), PDSI, and SPI. The drought indices were better correlated with total water-use rates than with metered rates, whereas metered rates were better correlated with meteorological parameters. Multivariant analyses produced fits of the data that explained a greater degree of the variance in metered rates than did the single-variant analyses. Adjusted R2 values for the 'best' models ranged from 0.79 at JEA to 0.29 at St. Augustine and exceeded 0.60 at five of eight sites. The amount of available water (P-PET) was the si

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Synoptic analysis of a decade of daily measurements of SO2 emission in the troposphere from volcanoes of the global ground-based Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change

Volcanic plumes are common and far-reaching manifestations of volcanic activity during and between eruptions. Observations of the rate of emission and composition of volcanic plumes are essential to recognize and, in some cases, predict the state of volcanic activity. Measurements of the size and location of the plumes are important to assess the impact of the emission from sporadic or localized events to persistent or widespread processes of climatic and environmental importance. These observations provide information on volatile budgets on Earth, chemical evolution of magmas, and atmospheric circulation and dynamics. Space-based observations during the last decades have given us a global view of Earth's volcanic emission, particularly of sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 ). Although none of the satellite missions were intended to be used for measurement of volcanic gas emission, specially adapted algorithms have produced time-averaged global emission budgets. These have confirmed that tropospheric plumes, produced from persistent degassing of weak sources, dominate the total emission of volcanic SO 2 . Although space-based observations have provided this global insight into some aspects of Earth's volcanism, it still has important limitations. The magnitude and short-term variability of lower-atmosphere emissions, historically less accessible from space, remain largely uncertain. Operational monitoring of volcanic plumes, at scales relevant for adequate surveillance, has been facilitated through the use of ground-based scanning differential optical absorption spectrometer (ScanDOAS) instruments since the beginning of this century, largely due to the coordinated effort of the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC). In this study, we present a compilation of results of homogenized post-analysis of measurements of SO 2 flux and plume parameters obtained during the period March 2005 to January 2017 of 32 volcanoes in NOVAC. This inventory opens a window into the short-term emission patterns of a diverse set of volcanoes in terms of magma composition, geographical location, magnitude of emission, and style of eruptive activity. We find that passive volcanic degassing is by no means a stationary process in time and that large sub-daily variability is observed in the flux of volcanic gases, which has implications for emission budgets produced using short-term, sporadic observations. The use of a standard evaluation method allows for intercomparison between different volcanoes and between ground- and space-based measurements of the same volcanoes. The emission of several weakly degassing volcanoes, undetected by satellites, is presented for the first time. We also compare our results with those reported in the literature, providing ranges of variability in emission not accessible in the past. The open-access data repository introduced in this article will enable further exploitation of this unique dataset, with a focus on volcanological research, risk assessment, satellite-sensor validation, and improved quantification of the prevalent tropospheric component of global volcanic emission.

Earth System Science Data↗

USGS1993

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗

USGS2016

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2021

Climate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The effects of anthropogenic climate change are apparent in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, with forest die-off, insect outbreaks, and wildfires impacting forest ecosystems. A long-term perspective would enable assessment of the historical range of variability in forest ecosystems and better determination of recent forest dynamics and historical thresholds. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop tree-ring chronologies for Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir growing at the study location, (2) correlate the annual ring widths of each species to monthly climate variables, (3) examine the instrumental climate data for regimes shifts in the mean state of variables, and (4) determine when ecological disturbances occurred through a quantification of growth releases. Finally, we discuss both climate-growth relationships and growth releases in the context of climate regime shifts and known forest disturbances. Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir showed some similar climate responses using moving correlation analysis including negative correlations between ring width and June – August current year temperature and previous growing season temperature. Regime shift analysis indicated significant ( p < 0.05) shifts in minimum and maximum GYE temperature in the latter half of the 20th century. Disturbance analysis indicated that both tree species responded to wildfire and insect outbreak events with growth releases in up to 25% of the trees. Disentangling the influence of climate regime shifts and forest disturbances on the climate-growth relationships can be difficult because climate and forest disturbances are intricately linked. Our evidence indicates that regime shifts in monthly climate variables and forest disturbances as recorded by growth releases can influence the ring width response to climate over time. Trees are key to providing a long-term perspective on climate and ecological health across the GYE because they integrate both climate and ecology in their annual ring widths.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

The North American carbon budget: Past, present, and future

This chapter nicely summarizes and synthesizes the latest scientific information on the North American carbon budget by incorporating terrestrial, anthropogenic, aquatic, and coastal margin CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics. Starting with a historical context, the chapter summarizes current understanding of the magnitudes and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes at the continental scale. It also provides a regional context by stratifying the continent to countries and climate assessment regions and discusses the societal drivers, impacts, and carbon management decisions. Knowledge gaps and research needs are also identified. This chapter is well-written and clearly organized, and provides a broad context beyond individual chapters. Some of the main ways the chapter can be improved include the following: some work is needed on the Key Findings (discussed below); the goals and objectives should be explicitly described; critical content areas missing from the chapter are interannual variability of carbon fluxes and impacts of severe and extended droughts; indicators and feedbacks are missing from Section 2.4; consistent use of units is recommended; numbers with 3-4 significant digits over-state the confidence the reader should have, and all numbers should include uncertainties. And one broader concern to note: This chapter follows the global overview in Chapter 1, where “sinks” are sinks in the cycle perturbed by anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 , and the assumption is that globally, the net unperturbed background sinks are zero summed across all reservoirs. Yet in this chapter, “sinks” are net fluxes out of the atmosphere, background + perturbation. For the coastal ocean, inland waters, etc.—where lateral transport is significant—these sources and sinks include background/pre-industrial fluxes that are balanced by fluxes elsewhere. These distinctions must be made clear so that the reader is not given an impression of a greater or lesser sink for anthropogenic CO 2 than is there (e.g., P74, lines 4-6).

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO 2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic homogenization. Our conceptual framework based on the match–mismatch between donor and recipient organisms may facilitate understanding of the multiple effects of global change and aid in the development of future research questions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2021

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗

USGS2013

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems? We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ~80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ~30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

Alaska↗