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USGS2015

Breeding habitat associations and predicted distribution of an obligate tundra-breeding bird, Smith's Longspur

Smith's Longspur ( Calcarius pictus ) is a species of conservation concern which breeds in Arctic habitats that are expected to be especially vulnerable to climate change. We used bird presence and habitat data from point-transect surveys conducted at 12 sites across the Brooks Range, Alaska, 2003–2009, to identify breeding areas, describe local habitat associations, and identify suitable habitat using a predictive model of Smith's Longspur distribution. Smith's Longspurs were observed at seven sites, where they were associated with a variety of sedge–shrub habitats composed primarily of mosses, sedges, tussocks, and dwarf shrubs; erect shrubs were common but sparse. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination of ground cover revealed positive associations of Smith's Longspur presence with sedges and mosses and a negative association with high cover of shrubs. To model predicted distribution, we used boosted regression trees to relate landscape variables to occurrence. Our model predicted that Smith's Longspurs may occur in valleys and foothills of the northeastern and southeastern mountains and in upland plateaus of the western mountains, and farther west than currently documented, over a predicted area no larger than 15% of the Brooks Range. With climate change, shrubs are expected to grow larger and denser, while soil moisture and moss cover are predicted to decrease. These changes may reduce Smith's Longspur habitat quality and limit distribution in the Brooks Range to poorly drained lowlands and alpine plateaus where sedge–shrub tundra is likely to persist. Conversely, northward advance of shrubs into sedge tundra may create suitable habitat, thus supporting a northward longspur distribution shift.

The Condor↗

USGS2017

Observations of indirect filial cannibalism in response to nest failure of Black-crowned Night-Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax)

During 2011, four separate instances of indirect filial cannibalism, whereby adults consumed their young that died from unknown causes, were observed using video-monitoring techniques in a nesting colony of Black-crowned Night-Herons ( Nycticorax nycticorax ) on Alcatraz Island. Though they were not observed actively killing their young, in all four observations adult Black-crowned Night-Herons consumed their young following death (i.e., indirect filial cannibalism). We could not determine cause of chick mortality, but parental neglect was likely a contributing factor in at least two instances. Indirect filial cannibalism is not commonly documented among birds, and understanding how cannibalism contributes to nest failure can help researchers better understand factors that limit nesting populations.

California↗

USGS2014

Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis ) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

Hawai’i↗

USGS2006

Predicting regional abundance of rare grassland birds with a hierarchical spatial count model

Grassland birds are among the most imperiled groups of birds in North America. Unfortunately, little is known about the location of regional concentrations of these birds, thus regional or statewide conservation efforts may be inappropriately applied, reducing their effectiveness. We identified environmental covariates associated with the abundance of five grassland birds in the upper midwestern United States (Bobolink [Dolichonyx oryzivorus], Grasshopper Sparrow [Ammodramus savannarum], Henslow's Sparrow [A. henslowii], Sedge Wren [Cistothorus platensis], and Upland Sandpiper [Bartramia longicauda]) with a hierarchical spatial count model fitted with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are well suited to this task because they are able to incorporate effects associated with autocorrelated counts and nuisance effects associated with years and observers, and the resulting models can be used to map predicted abundance at a landscape scale. Environmental covariates were derived from five suites of variables: landscape composition, landscape configuration, terrain heterogeneity and physiognomy, climate, and human influence. The final models largely conformed to our a priori expectations. Bobolinks and Henslow's Sparrows were strongly sensitive to grassland patch area. All of the species except Henslow's Sparrows exhibited substantial negative relations with forest composition, often at multiple spatial scales. Climate was found to be important for all species, and was the most important factor influencing abundance of Grasshopper Sparrows. After mapping predicted abundance, we found no obvious correspondence in the regional patterns of the five species. Thus, no clearly defined areas exist within the upper midwestern United States where management plans can be developed for a whole suite of grassland birds. Instead, a larger, region-wide initiative setting different goals for different species is recommended.

Condor↗

USGS2018

Fuelling conditions at staging sites can mitigate Arctic warming effects in a migratory bird

Under climate warming, migratory birds should align reproduction dates with advancing plant and arthropod phenology. To arrive on the breeding grounds earlier, migrants may speed up spring migration by curtailing the time spent en route , possibly at the cost of decreased survival rates. Based on a decades-long series of observations along an entire flyway, we show that when refuelling time is limited, variation in food abundance in the spring staging area affects fitness. Bar-tailed godwits migrating from West Africa to the Siberian Arctic reduce refuelling time at their European staging site and thus maintain a close match between breeding and tundra phenology. Annual survival probability decreases with shorter refuelling times, but correlates positively with refuelling rate, which in turn is correlated with food abundance in the staging area. This chain of effects implies that conditions in the temperate zone determine the ability of godwits to cope with climate-related changes in the Arctic.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2004

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.

Condor↗

USGS1972

Copulation by California condors

Koford (Res. Rept. No. 3, Natl. Audubon Soc., 1953) observed sexual display among California Condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ) on more than 30 occasions, yet only once did he see what he thought was copulation. Some of the displays he watched were quite intricate, with considerable posturing and "male" aggression, but no such activity preceded this copulation. The birds sat several feet apart for over 1 hour, then one climbed onto the other's back, staying there 1/2 minute and flapping gently at the apparent moment of coition. Afterward they sat quietly 1/2 hour before flying away. This led Koford to state (p. 79) that "possibly in Gymnogyps copulation is not immediately preceded by display." We have records of 8 California Condor copulations, 5 of which are similar to that described above. The three other occasions began similarly, with the birds sitting quietly, but then the "male" displayed briefly before the "female" with wings half spread and head drooping forward. This elicited no apparent response, but the male immediately walked behind and mounted the female. The apparent moment of coition was accompanied by gentle wing flapping in all instances.

The Auk↗

USGS2025

Sprague’s Pipits (Anthus spragueii) occupying high-elevation intermontane valley habitat throughout the breeding season in southwest Montana

Sprague's Pipit ( Anthus spragueii ) is an imperiled bird species that breeds in grasslands of the northern Great Plains of North America. While conducting avian surveys in the Centennial Valley, Beaverhead County, southwest Montana, during spring and summer 2023, we detected approximately 10 male Sprague's Pipits performing aerial displays. These represent the first detailed observations of Sprague's Pipits in Beaverhead County, Montana, and the first confirmed observations of territorial displays therein. Subsequent detections included multiple adults, one of which was seen flying with food in its bill. We hypothesize that these observations represent a small but previously undescribed breeding population occurring above 2000 m elevation, which is higher than elevations at which this species is generally thought to breed. Our discovery also expands the known breeding habitat of this species to include intermontane valley bottoms, raising questions of whether the historical range included this habitat prior to its large-scale modifications across western North America and contemporary global change. These additions to our understanding of Sprague's Pipit ecology may be important for both land managers in the region and conservation efforts for this species. The evidence described here, of a breeding population of Sprague's Pipits in the Centennial Valley, Montana, may warrant further investigations in intermontane valleys throughout the region to better understand the breeding extent and the management actions needed to conserve this species and its habitat.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Songbird feathers as indicators of mercury exposure: High variability and low predictive power suggest limitations

Although feathers are commonly used to monitor mercury (Hg) in avian populations, their reliability as a sampling matrix has not been thoroughly assessed for many avian species, including most songbirds (Order Passeriformes). To better understand relationships between total Hg (THg) concentrations in feathers and other tissues for birds in the thrush and sparrow families, we (1) examined variation in THg concentrations among tissues, including feathers from six different tracts, nails, liver, and muscle; (2) tested relationships between THg concentrations in the various feather tracts and those in internal tissues from the same birds, to assess the predictive power of feather THg, and; (3) compared these relationships to those between THg concentrations in nails and internal tissues, to assess the viability of nails as a non-lethal sampling alternative. THg concentrations in all feather tracts and nails were consistently higher than those in the liver and muscle, and THg was higher in the thrushes than the sparrows. When comparing feather tracts, we observed high variation within some individuals, suggesting that estimates of Hg exposure could vary depending on which feather was sampled. Despite this variation, feather type had little effect on the predictive power of feather THg concentrations, which ranged from extremely weak in the sparrows (0.09 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.16) to moderate (0.29 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.42) in the thrushes. Alternatively, we found that nail samples better predicted internal tissue THg concentrations in both the thrushes (0.44 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.48) and sparrows (0.70 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.78). Nails have been used to monitor Hg in mammals and reptiles, but their reliability as a sampling matrix for monitoring Hg in avian populations has yet to be assessed for most taxa. While nails exhibit stronger relationships to internal tissue THg concentrations, they may not be an effective sampling option for all avian species because the collection of sizable nail samples could harm living birds, particularly small songbirds. However, this method may be reasonable for retrospective museum studies. Overall, our results suggest that, despite their current use in the literature, feathers are not a suitable sampling matrix for Hg monitoring in some songbird species.

Ecotoxicology↗

USGS2013

Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spreac

Estimating disease transmission in wildlife populations is critical to understand host–pathogen dynamics, predict disease risks and prioritize surveillance activities. However, obtaining reliable estimates for free-ranging populations is extremely challenging. In particular, disease surveillance programs may routinely miss the onset or end of epizootics and peak prevalence, limiting the ability to evaluate infectious processes. We used profile likelihood to estimate the force of infection (FOI) in a low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) epizootic model from censored time series of LPAIv prevalence in hatch-year waterfowl (order Anseriformes) at postbreeding and migration sites in North America. We found a mean LPAIv FOI of 0·12 day −1 [95% CI, 0·00–0·39], corresponding to an incidence rate of 0·11 day −1 , with geographic heterogeneity (min–max: 0·02–0·23 day −1 ) among study sites. These high infection rates indicate that most hatch-year waterfowl are likely infected with LPAIv early in the fall migration. Comparison of model-predicted and observed immunity confirmed our assumption of naïve hatch-year waterfowl and suggested long-term immunity (>6 months) for adults. Using the mean LPAIv incidence rate, we predict a shorter and lower epizootic curve for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv; 5 weeks with peak prevalence of 28% and 30% mortality) than LPAIv (8 weeks with peak prevalence of 50%). These findings indicate it is harder to detect HPAIv than LPAIv with swabs from live birds, which are commonly used during disease surveillance. Synthesis and applications . Our study highlights the potential of integrating incomplete surveillance data with epizootic models to quantify disease transmission and immunity. This modelling approach provides an important tool to understand spatial and temporal epizootic dynamics and inform disease surveillance. Our findings suggest focusing highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) surveillance on postbreeding areas where mortality of immunologically naïve hatch-year birds is most likely to occur, and collecting serology to enhance HPAIv detection. Our modelling approach can integrate various types of disease data facilitating its use with data from other surveillance programs (as illustrated by the estimation of infection rate during an HPAIv outbreak in mute swans Cygnus olor in Europe).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2015

Toxicity reference values for chlorophacinone and their application for assessing anticoagulant rodenticide risk to raptors

Despite widespread use and benefit, there are growing concerns regarding hazards of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides to non-target wildlife which may result in expanded use of first-generation compounds, including chlorophacinone (CPN). The toxicity of CPN over a 7-day exposure period was investigated in American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) fed either rat tissue mechanically-amended with CPN, tissue from rats fed Rozol ® bait (biologically-incorporated CPN), or control diets (tissue from untreated rats or commercial bird of prey diet) ad libitum. Nominal CPN concentrations in the formulated diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and measured concentrations averaged 94 % of target values. Kestrel food consumption was similar among groups and body weight varied by less than 6 %. Overt signs of intoxication, liver CPN residues, and changes in prothrombin time (PT), Russell’s viper venom time (RVVT) and hematocrit, were generally dose-dependent. Histological evidence of hemorrhage was present at all CPN dose levels, and most frequently observed in pectoral muscle and heart. There were no apparent differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diet formulations. Dietary-based toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50 % of the kestrels were 79.2 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for PT and 39.1 µg/kg body weight-day for RVVT. Based upon daily food consumption of kestrels and previously reported CPN concentrations found in small mammals following field baiting trials, these toxicity reference values might be exceeded by free-ranging raptors consuming such exposed prey. Tissue-based toxicity reference values for coagulopathy in 50 % of exposed birds were 0.107 µg CPN/g liver wet weight for PT and 0.076 µg/g liver for RVVT, and are below the range of residue levels reported in raptor mortality incidents attributed to CPN exposure. Sublethal responses associated with exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of CPN could compromise survival of free-ranging raptors, and should be considered in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs.

Ecotoxicology↗

USGS2020

Determinants and consequences of dispersal in vertebrates with complex life cycles: a review of pond-breeding amphibians

Dispersal is a central process in ecology and evolution. It strongly influences the dynamics of spatially structured populations, by affecting population growth rate and local colonization-extinction processes. Dispersal can also influence evolutionary processes because it determines rates and patterns of gene flow in spatially structured populations and is closely linked to local adaptation. For these reasons, dispersal has received considerable attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists. However, although it has been studied extensively in taxa such as birds and mammals, much less is known about dispersal in vertebrates with complex life cycles such as pond-breeding amphibians. Over the past two decades, researchers have taken an interest in amphibian dispersal and initiated both fundamental and applied studies, using a broad range of experimental and observational approaches. This body of research reveals complex dispersal patterns, causations and syndromes, with dramatic consequences for the demography and genetics of amphibian populations. In this review, our goals are to (1) redefine and clarify the concept of amphibian dispersal, (2) review current knowledge about the effects of individual (i.e., condition-dependent dispersal) and environmental (i.e., context-dependent dispersal) factors during the three stages of dispersal (i.e., emigration, immigration, transience), (3) identify the demographic and genetic consequences of dispersal in spatially structured amphibian populations, and (4) propose new research avenues to extend our understanding of amphibian dispersal. In particular, we emphasize the need to (1) quantify dispersal rate and distance rigorously using suitable model systems, (2) investigate the genetic basis and dispersal evolution patterns, and (3) examine dispersal-related eco-evolutionary dynamics. These proposed research avenues tap from the recent advances in quantitative and molecular methods and have the potential to improve our understanding of dispersal in organisms with complex life cycles.

The Quarterly Review of Biology↗

USGS2000

Genetic variation in the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

The Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) is an endangered Neotropical migrant that breeds in isolated remnants of dense riparian habitat in the southwestern United States. We estimated genetic variation at 20 breeding sites of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (290 individuals) using 38 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). Our results suggest that considerable genetic diversity exists within the subspecies and within local breeding sites. Statistical analyses of genetic variation revealed only slight, although significant, differentiation among breeding sites (Mantel's r = 0.0705, P < 0.0005; θ = 0.0816, 95% CI = 0.0608 to 0.1034; Φ ST = 0.0458, P < 0.001). UPGMA cluster analysis of the AFLP markers indicates that extensive gene flow has occurred among breeding sites. No one site stood out as being genetically unique or isolated. Therefore, the small level of genetic structure that we detected may not be biologically significant. Ongoing field studies are consistent with this conclusion. Of the banded birds that were resighted or recaptured in Arizona during the 1996 to 1998 breeding seasons, one-third moved between breeding sites and two-thirds were philopatric. Low differentiation may be the result of historically high rangewide diversity followed by recent geographic isolation of breeding sites, although observational data indicate that gene flow is a current phenomenon. Our data suggest that breeding groups of E. t. extimus act as a metapopulation.

The Auk↗

USGS2003

Radio-telemetry evidence of re-nesting in the same season by the Marbled Murrelet

Unlike other alcids, laying of replacement eggs has not been well documented in Brachyramphus murrelets. Observations of two radio-marked Marbled Murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in northern California during 2001 and 2002 suggested that they can re-lay in the same breeding season. In 2001, aircraft telemetry first detected a male Marbled Murrelet at a forested inland location on 17 May. This bird alternated 24h incubation bouts with 24h at sea periods until 29 May, when data logger recordings indicated that the bird arrived at the nest at 05.17 h (PDT), but left at 05.32 h. This nesting effort had apparently failed. Sixteen days later, on 14 June this murrelet arrived in the vicinity of the first nest site at 05.19 h and remained there until 18.57 h that same evening and then left. We suspected that this event represented a second breeding effort that also failed, either near or at the site of the first effort. In 2002 a female Marbled Murrelet, first detected inland on 13 June by aircraft telemetry, alternated on the nest one day and at sea the next until 23 June when the breeding effort is presumed to have failed. This bird was again detected inland on 21 July, and alternated on the nest one day and at sea the following day until 3 August, when the radio-transmitter fell off the bird. Video recordings at the nest site indicated this second nesting attempt continued until 1 September, when the chick died of unknown causes. As in other alcids, re-laying apparently occurred 2-4 weeks after failure of the first eggs, either near or at the site of first eggs. Re-nesting may be frequent in murrelets, given the high rates of breeding failure reported.

California↗

USGS2013

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1996

Relationship between the present-day stress field and plate boundary forces in the Pacific Northwest

The relationship between plate boundary forces and the observed stress field in the Pacific Northwest is established using numerical models of continental deformation. Because the orientation of the greatest horizontal principal stress throughout the Pacific Northwest differs considerably from the direction of convergence between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates, the relationship between the stress field and forces acting along the subduction zone has been unclear. To address this relationship, a two‐dimensional finite element model developed by Bird [1989] is used that incorporates critical aspects of continental deformation such as a stratified rheology and interaction between thermal and mechanical components of deformation. Boundary conditions are specified in terms of either velocity or shear traction, depending on whether the computed shear stress at the plate boundary is less than or exceeds, respectively, a prescribed limit. Shear‐stress limits on the subduction and transform plate boundaries are independently varied to determine the relative effect of forces along these boundaries on intraplate deformation. Results from this study indicate that the shear stress limit of both subduction and transform boundaries is low, and that the intraplate stress field is attributed, in part, to the normal component of relative plate motion along the transform boundaries. However, the models also indicate that although the subduction zone fault is weak, a minimum shear strength (≥ 10 MPa) for the fault is necessary to explain the observed stress field. The balance among forces along the tectonic boundaries of North America results in a surprising degree of variation in the present‐day stress field.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Current distribution and abundance of Kohala forest birds in Hawai‘i

The Kohala volcano is home to the most spatially isolated population of Hawaiian forest birds on Hawai‘i Island and contains one of the few native bird populations in the state that has not been monitored since the original Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (HFBS) in 1979. We surveyed 143 stations across 13 transects in Pu‘u ‘O ‘Umi Natural Area Reserve on Kohala from February through April 2017 and compared our results to data from the 1979 HFBS conducted at 80 stations across three transects in the same location as our study site. We detected 2806 individuals of 15 species and measured relative abundance, relative occurrence, and density for seven species. We observed changes in species densities ranging from −8.4% (Hawai‘i ‘Elepaio, Chasiempis sandwichensis ) to +714% (‘I‘iwi, Drepanis coccinea ). Equivalence testing showed meaningful increases in population densities for all but one species, the Hawai‘i ‘Elepaio. The increases in population densities on Kohala are in stark contrast to the widespread declines in population densities of native species elsewhere in Hawai‘i. Relative occurrence was greater in 2017 than in 1979 for all species except Hawai‘i ‘Elepaios and House Finches ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), and relative abundance increased for all species except Hawai‘i ‘Elepaios, House Finches, and Melodious Laughing Thrushes ( Garrulax canorus ). We also documented the range expansion of Japanese Bush Warblers ( Cettia diphone ) in Kohala. Our results indicate that this spatially isolated avian community remains biologically diverse, and most population densities are increasing in the study area. Our results provide a framework for future surveys and a baseline for understanding possible changes in population and community dynamics as birds respond to climate change and avian disease on Kohala volcano.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2013

Demographic variation, reintroduction, and persistence of an island duck ( Anas laysanensis )

Population variation in life history can be important for predicting successful establishment and persistence of reintroduced populations of endangered species. The Laysan duck (Anas laysanensis) is an endangered bird native to the Hawaiian Archipelago that was extirpated from most islands after the introduction of mammalian predators. Laysan ducks were restricted to a single remote island, Laysan Island (4.1 km 2 ), for nearly 150 years. Since the species is not known to disperse between distant Hawaiian Islands today, 42 wild birds from Laysan Island were translocated to another mammalian predator-free low-lying atoll (Midway Atoll; 6.0 km 2 ) to reduce extinction risk. We explored how variation in demography influences establishment and longer-term retention of genetic diversity (rare alleles) for reintroductions of this species. We observed dramatic differences in population growth between the source (λ = 1.18) and reintroduced (λ = 3.28) population. The number of eggs hatched at Midway Atoll was greater than at Laysan Island, however, we found no difference in hatching success (proportion of clutch hatched) between populations. Adult females produced 3 times as many fledglings per breeding year on Midway Atoll compared to Laysan Island. We estimated population abundance of both populations until 2010 and applied a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer density dependence, process variation, observation error, and carrying capacity for the Laysan Island and Midway Atoll populations. The carrying capacity from the Gompertz model for Midway Atoll (K = 883 ± 210 SD) was estimated to be greater than that of Laysan Island (K = 598 ± 76 SD). Translocations with small numbers of founders and no immigration can create population bottlenecks, leading to loss of genetic variation over time, and potentially reducing the reintroduced population's viability or its potential to serve as a source for future translocations. Therefore, we also assessed the probability of retaining rare alleles in an isolated reintroduced Laysan duck population using life history parameters observed from the Laysan Island and Midway Atoll populations; we concluded that additional founders are needed under scenarios using demographic estimates from both Laysan Island and Midway Atoll to retain either 90% or 95% of source population genetic diversity.

Laysan Island;Midway Atoll↗