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It's about time: A multistate semicontinuous time mark–recapture model to evaluate seasonal survival and movement rates of juvenile Coho Salmon in a small coastal watershed

Objective Many mark–recapture models assume that releases and recaptures are discrete events, and researchers often aggregate continuous recapture data (e.g., passive integrated transponder [PIT] detections) into coarse temporal scales to satisfy this assumption. This temporal discretization could result in parameter biases by ignoring the individual heterogeneity in the time susceptible to mortality after recapture and the conditions experienced (e.g., temperature and predation risk) before and after recapture. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the amount of bias in survival and emigration rates due to different temporal discretization durations when recapture events occur continuously and (2) apply this semicontinuous model to estimate rates of early emigration and overwinter survival for Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in a coastal California watershed. Methods We developed a semicontinuous time multistate mark–recapture model to separately estimated emigration and survival rates throughout the year. We used weekly time-varying occasions paired with discrete spatial states and conducted extensive simulation trials to explore potential model bias. We then applied the model to an existing 4-year dataset of Coho Salmon PIT tag detections. Result Our simulations indicated that that the amount of bias in survival and movement rates decreased as the temporal discretization duration decreased. The confidence interval of the bias estimates included zero with a duration of 8 days, indicating that this duration was sufficiently short to model movement and survival. Results from our Coho Salmon analysis suggest that overwinter survival rate ranged from 0.72 to 0.83, which is higher than previous estimates for Coho Salmon in this region. We estimate that a substantial proportion of smaller juveniles (0.21–0.28 annually) move to downstream nonnatal rearing habitats before the spring smolt migration. Conclusion Our semicontinuous modeling approach can be implemented relatively easily and used to analyze continuous detection data to accurately estimate survival and movement rates. Our analysis of Coho Salmon PIT tag detections implies that previous low estimates of apparent overwinter survival of Coho Salmon were partially due to high movement rates to alternative rearing locations. This contrasts with conclusions from the previous research that suggested that overwinter survival was a major limiting factor for population recovery and implies that species recovery may be improved by considering multiple emigration patterns in the design of future research, monitoring, and restoration projects.

California

Watersheds: where we live

We all live in a watershed. Animals and plants all live there with us. Everyone affects what happens in a watershed by how we treat the natural resources. So what is a watershed? It is the land area that drains water to a stream, river, lake, or ocean. Water travels over the Earth's surface across forest land, farm fields, pastures, suburban lawns, and city streets, or it seeps into the soil and makes its way to a stream as local ground water. Watersheds come in many different shapes and sizes. Some contain mountains and hills, and others are nearly flat. A watershed can be affected by many different activities and events. Construction of cities and towns, farming, logging, and the application and disposal of many garden and household chemicals can affect the quantity and quality of water flowing from a watershed.

General Information Product

Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets ( 14 C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

Alaska

Summary of Optical-Backscatter and Suspended-Sediment Data, Tomales Bay Watershed, California, Water Years 2004, 2005, and 2006

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Point Reyes National Seashore, is studying suspended-sediment transport dynamics in the two primary tributaries to Tomales Bay, Lagunitas Creek and Walker Creek. Suspended-sediment samples and continuous optical backscatter (turbidity) data were collected at three locations during water years 2004?06 (October 1, 2003?September 30, 2006): at two sites in the Lagunitas Creek watershed and at one site in the Walker Creek watershed. Sediment samples were analyzed for suspended-sediment concentration, grain size, and turbidity. Data were used to estimate mean daily and annual seasonal suspended-sediment discharge, which were published in U.S. Geological Survey Annual Water-Data Reports. Data were utilized further in this report to develop field-based optical-backscatter calibration equations, which then were used to derive a continuous time series (15-minute interval) of suspended-sediment concentrations. Sensor fouling and aggradation of the channel bed occurred periodically throughout the project period, resulting in data loss. Although periods of data loss occurred, collection of optical sensor data improved our understanding of suspended-sediment dynamics in the Lagunitas Creek and Walker Creek watersheds by providing continuous time-series storm event data that were analyzed to determine durations of elevated sediment concentrations (periods of time when suspended-sediment concentration was greater than 100 mg/L). Data derived from this project contributed baseline suspended-sediment transport information that will be used to develop and implement sediment total maximum daily loads for Tomales Bay and its tributary watersheds, and provides supporting information for additional total maximum daily loads (pathogens, nutrients, and mercury) and restoration efforts for four federally listed aquatic species that are affected directly by sediment loading in the Tomales Bay watershed. In addition, this project provided an opportunity to evaluate the suitability of using optical data as a surrogate for more traditional labor-intensive methods of measuring suspended-sediment transport in steep coastal watersheds.

Scientific Investigations Report

Assessing the influence of conservation implementation on water quality during surface runoff events at edge-of-field monitoring sites located in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin

The Laurentian Great Lakes are a vital freshwater resource in the United States, and nonpoint source (NPS) nutrient pollution, specifically phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), from agricultural land use continues to negatively impact water quality throughout the Great Lakes basin. One focus of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), a mechanism to coordinate conservation efforts in the Great Lakes that began in 2010, is reducing NPS nutrient pollution through the implementation of conservation practices in priority watersheds (Genesee River, Fox River, Maumee River, and Saginaw River). As part of GLRI efforts, the objective of the study presented here was to evaluate the effects of conservation implementation, specifically increasing vegetative cover on fields and in primary flowpaths through perennial or cover crop planting and grassed waterways, on surface-runoff water quality at 12 agricultural fields (six paired and six unpaired) located in priority watersheds. We determined the percentage difference in mean event response variables between the periods before and after conservation implementation at individual sites, describing patterns across sites to synthesize lessons learned from these GLRI evaluations. Generally, we found that mean event flow-weighted concentration (FWC) and yield (kilograms per hectare) decreased for suspended sediment (SS) and nitrate (NO 3 – -N) across many sites. Mean event FWC and yield for total P (TP) showed mixed results across sites, while mean event FWC and yield for orthophosphate generally increased across sites. These results indicate that perennial or cover crop planting and grassed waterways effectively reduce SS and NO 3 – -N losses in surface runoff from agricultural fields, but mitigating TP and dissolved P losses remains a challenge.

Laurentian Great Lakes basin

Nutrient loading and selected water-quality and biological characteristics of Dickinson Bayou near Houston, Texas, 1995-97

Data were collected at 10 stations in the Dickinson Bayou watershed near Houston, Texas, from March 1995 through February 1997 to estimate the concentrations, loads, and yields of selected nutrients that enter the bayou; to characterize the effects on nutrient concentrations of flow conditions, seasonality, and land use; and to identify nutrient sources (point or nonpoint) inferred from the occurrence and abundance of algal species in the benthic algal community. These data included rainfall samples, streamflow measurements, stream-water-quality samples, and biological samples, in addition to quality-assurance/quality-control samples. Estimates of loads of selected nutrients for the 106-square-mile watershed during the study were made for point sources and nonpoint sources. Point-source loading data are available only for ammonia nitrogen. Approximately 21.3 pounds per day of ammonia nitrogen is estimated from point sources during the study period. Nonpoint-source loads are estimated for eight nutrient forms: 7.84 pounds per day of dissolved ammonia nitrogen, 5.79 pounds per day of dissolved nitrite nitrogen, 215 pounds per day of dissolved Kjeldahl nitrogen, 350 pounds per day of total Kjeldahl nitrogen, 40.1 pounds per day of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, 67.6 pounds per day of total phosphorus, 46.6 pounds per day of dissolved phosphorus, and 42.8 pounds per day of dissolved orthophosphate. Rainfall-deposition rates also are estimated for comparison with point- and nonpoint-source loads. Deposition rates are 110 pounds per day of dissolved ammonia nitrogen, 120 pounds per day of dissolved nitrate nitrogen, and 15.8 pounds per day of dissolved phosphorus. Statistical tests were used to determine whether there are significant differences between nutrient concentrations during low-flow and during high-flow conditions. For basins with rural/mixed and urban land uses, nutrient concentrations generally are significantly different (greater) during storm events than during low flow, indicating accumulation in the watershed and subsequent washoff of nutrients. However, nutrient concentrations in storm-event samples consisting predominantly of runoff from a pasture are not significantly greater than those in low-flow samples. Statistical tests for seasonality indicate that dissolved ammonia nitrogen is significantly different in at least one season for all land uses (rural/residential, rural/mixed, and pasture) except urban. Concentrations tend to increase in the spring and early summer months, possibly from fertilizer application and subsequent washoff. Constituent-yield data were used to make direct comparisons of the nonpoint-source load contributions from four stations with watersheds of different land use. These comparisons lead to three conclusions: (1) For all nutrient species except orthophosphate, urban land use is the largest nonpoint-source contributor, (2) Kjeldahl nitrogen is the most abundant nutrient species, and (3) organic nitrogen accounts for the major part of the Kjeldahl nitrogen. Algal samples were collected at seven stations and were analyzed for periphyton identification and enumeration, and chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b concentrations. The large relative abundance of soil algae at stations in the middle of the watershed likely indicates the cumulative effects on water quality of agricultural nonpoint sources. Farther downstream near the State Highway 3 bridge, and downstream of three major tributary inflows, the increase in abundance of soil algae to a larger-than-expected level might reflect water-quality influences from predominantly urban nonpoint sources in the drainage basins of the three major tributary inflows. Nutrient concentrations do not appear to limit algal production in the upper (non-tidal) reach of Dickinson Bayou; but nutrient concentrations could have been limiting benthicalgal production in the lower (tidal) reach of the bayou during the time of the synoptic survey. If nitrogen is the limiting resource for algal productivity in the tidal reach of Dickinson Bayou, eutrophication of the system could be (at least partially) mitigated if nonpoint-source nutrient loads into the Bayou were reduced.

Texas

Water quality and mass transport in four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico: Chapter E in Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

Water quality of four small watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico has been monitored since 1991 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program. These watersheds represent a montane, humid-tropical environment and differ in geology and land cover. Two watersheds are located on granitic rocks, and two are located on volcaniclastic rock. For each bedrock type, one watershed is covered with mature rainforest in the Luquillo Mountains, and the other watershed is undergoing reforestation after being affected by agricultural practices typical of eastern Puerto Rico. A subwatershed of the Icacos watershed, the Guabá, was also monitored to examine scaling effects. The water quality of the rivers draining forest, in the Icacos and Guabá (granitic watersheds) and Mameyes (a volcaniclastic watershed), show little contamination by human activities. The water is well oxygenated and has a nearly neutral pH, and nutrient concentrations are low. Concentrations of nutrients in the disturbed watersheds, the Cayaguás (granitic rock) and Canóvanas (volcaniclastic rock), are greater than in the forested watersheds, indicating some inputs from human activities. High in-stream productivity in the Canóvanas watershed leads to occasional oxygen and calcite supersaturation and carbon dioxide undersaturation. Suspended sediment concentrations in all watersheds are low, except during major storms. Most dissolved constituents derived from bedrock weathering or atmospheric deposition (including sodium, magnesium, calcium, silica, alkalinity, and chloride) decrease in concentration with increasing runoff, reflecting dilution from increased proportions of overland or near-surface flow. Strongly bioactive constituents (dissolved organic carbon, potassium, nitrate, ammonium ion, and phosphate) commonly display increasing concentration with increasing runoff, regardless of their ultimate origin (bedrock or atmosphere). The concentrations of many of the bioactive constituents eventually decrease at runoff rates greater than 3 to 10 millimeters per hour, presumably reflecting an increased relative contribution from overland flow. Sulfate behaves like the nonbioactive constituents in the Canóvanas, Cayaguás, and Mameyes watersheds but like a bioactive constituent in the Icacos and Guabá watersheds. Storms resulted in several anomalous sample compositions. Runoff waters from a number of storms - mostly hurricanes, but also other storms - have exceptionally high chloride concentrations, presumably resulting from windborne seasalt from the ocean, and low nitrate concentrations, reflecting a dominance of maritime air masses contributing moisture to the storms. High-potassium samples, without high chloride, are also associated with some smaller storms that followed Hurricane Georges in 1998; they are likely related to the breakdown of fallen vegetation. Finally, occasional low-silica events are observed in the Icacos and Guabá watersheds in the years prior to Hurricane Georges, but not after; this difference may be related to a change in hydrologic flow paths.

Professional Paper

Developing a post-fire flood chronology and recurrence probability from alluvial stratigraphy in the Buffalo Creek watershed, Colorado, USA

Stratigraphic and geomorphic evidence indicate floods that occur soon after forest fires have been intermittent but common events in many mountainous areas during the past several thousand years. The magnitude and recurrence of these post-fire flood events reflects the joint probability between the recurrence of fires and the recurrence of subsequent rainfall events of varying magnitude and intensity. Following the May 1996 Buffalo Creek, Colorado, forest fire, precipitation amounts and intensities that generated very little surface runoff outside of the burned area resulted in severe hillslope erosion, floods, and streambed sediment entrainment in the rugged, severely burned, 48 km2 area. These floods added sediment to many existing alluvial fans, while simultaneously incising other fans and alluvial deposits. Incision of older fans revealed multiple sequences of fluvially transported sandy gravel that grade upward into charcoal-rich, loamy horizons. We interpret these sequences to represent periods of high sediment transport and aggradation during floods, followed by intervals of quiescence and relative stability in the watershed until a subsequent fire occurred. An alluvial sequence near the mouth of a tributary draining a 0??82 km2 area indicated several previous post-fire flood cycles in the watershed. Dendrochronologic and radiocarbon ages of material in this deposit span approximately 2900 years, and define three aggradational periods. The three general aggradational periods are separated by intervals of approximately nine to ten centuries and reflect a 'millennium-scale' geomorphic response to a closely timed sequence of events: severe and intense, watershed-scale, stand-replacing fires and subsequent rainstorms and flooding. Millennium-scale aggradational units at the study site may have resulted from a scenario in which the initial runoff from the burned watershed transported and deposited large volumes of sediment on downstream alluvial surfaces and tributary fans. Subsequent storm runoff may have produced localized incision and channelization, preventing additional vertical aggradation on the sampled alluvial deposit for several centuries. Two of the millennium-scale aggradational periods at the study site consist of multiple gravel and loam sequences with similar radiocarbon ages. These closely dated sequences may reflect a 'multidecade-scale' geomorphic response to more frequent, but aerially limited and less severe fires, followed by rainstorms of relatively common recurrence. Published in 2001 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes

Daily reservoir sedimentation model: Case study from the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

A model to compute reservoir sedimentation rates at daily timescales is presented. The model uses streamflow and sediment load data from nearby stream gauges to obtain an initial estimate of sediment yield for the reservoir’s watershed; it is then calibrated to the total deposition calculated from repeat bathymetric surveys. Long-term changes to reservoir trapping efficiency are also taken into account. The model was applied to the Fena Valley Reservoir, a water supply reservoir on the island of Guam. This reservoir became operational in 1951 and was recently surveyed in 2014. The model results show that the highest rate of deposition occurred during two typhoons (Typhoon Alice in 1953 and Typhoon Tingting in 2004); each storm decreased reservoir capacity by approximately 2–3% in only a few days. The presented model can be used to evaluate the impact of an extreme event, or it can be coupled with a watershed runoff model to evaluate potential impacts to storage capacity as a result of climate change or other hydrologic modifications.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

Season and antecedent conditions impact concentration-discharge relationships for dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity in southeast Alaskan watershed

Fluvial export of dissolved carbon plays an important role in watershed-scale biogeochemistry. Predicted changes in climate are expected to impact watershed hydrologic regimes, and in turn, the sources and export of dissolved carbon from watersheds. Here, we utilize high resolution measurements of discharge and dissolved carbon concentration to examine how concentration-discharge (CQ) relationships vary seasonally and during high flow events over the main runoff season (May–October) in a temperate forested watershed in Southeast Alaska. Concentration-discharge relationships for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and alkalinity demonstrated strong seasonal patterns, with more linear relationships in May and June versus other months. Changing power law model slopes ( b values; the exponent in a power law regression between runoff and carbon yields) indicated potentially shifting watershed sources (biogenic vs. geologic) and contrasting dominant flowpaths (shallow vs. deeper groundwater) for DOC and alkalinity over the sampling period. During the largest storm event of the study, DOC and alkalinity b values shifted from an overall pattern of transport (mean b = 1.58 values >1.0 indicate transport limitation) and source limitation (mean b = 0.48, values <1.0 indicate source limitation) to chemostatic (DOC, b = 0.99; alkalinity, b = 1.019). In June through August, patterns in hysteresis index suggest that CQ relationships were altered when storms followed in close succession to each other. Together, these findings indicate that seasonal and antecedent flow conditions play a role in dissolved carbon export from forested watersheds. Understanding these dynamics, particularly during winter months, will become increasingly important as changes to hydroclimate impact riverine carbon export.

Alaska

Nutrients, organic compounds, and mercury in the Meduxnekeag River watershed, Maine, 2003

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, sampled streambed sediments and surface water of the Meduxnekeag River watershed in northeastern Maine under various hydrologic conditions for nutrients, hydrophobic organic compounds, and mercury. Nutrients were sampled to address concerns related to summer algal blooms, and organic compounds and mercury were sampled to address concerns about regional depositional patterns and overall watershed quality. In most surface-water samples, phosphorus was not detected or was detected at concentrations below the minimum reporting limit. Nitrate and organic nitrogen were detected in every surface-water sample for which they were analyzed; the highest concentration of total nitrogen was 0.75 milligrams per liter during low flow. Instantaneous nitrogen loads and yields were calculated at four stations for two sampling events. These data indicate that the part of the watershed that includes Houlton, its wastewater-treatment plant, and four small urban brooks may have contributed high concentrations of nitrate to Meduxnekeag River during the high flows on April 23-24 and high concentrations of both organic and nitrate nitrogen on June 2-3. Mercury was detected in all three bed-sediment samples for which it was analyzed; concentrations were similar to those reported from regional studies. Notable organic compounds detected in bed sediments included p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT (pesticides of the DDT family) and several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and phthalates were not detected in any sample, whereas p-cresol was the only phenolic compound detected. Phosphorus was detected at concentrations below 700 milligrams per kilogram in each bed-sediment sample for which it was analyzed. Data were insufficient to establish whether the lack of large algal blooms in 2003 was related to low concentrations of phosphorus.

Scientific Investigations Report

Turbidity current observations in a large reservoir following a major wildfire

Turbidity currents are generated when denser river water plunges and flows along the bottom of a lake, reservoir, or ocean. The plunging and downstream movement are driven by density differences due to temperature and/or suspended sediment, and currents have been observed to move slowly over long distances. This study presents observations of multiple turbidity currents in a large reservoir in California, United States, during runoff events following a major wildfire in the upstream watershed. Several aspects of the currents are documented and discussed, including the conditions leading to plunging, the vertical and longitudinal structure of turbidity within the currents, the velocity of the currents, and the development of a muddy lake upstream from an old submerged dam in the reservoir.

California

Interdisciplinary science approach for harmful algal blooms (HABs) and algal toxins—A strategic science vision for the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Algal blooms in water, soils, dusts, and the environment have captured national attention because of concerns associated with exposure to algal toxins for humans and animals. Algal blooms naturally occur in all surface-water types and are important primary producers for aquatic ecosystems. However, excessive algae growth can be associated with many harmful effects ranging from aesthetic to toxicity concerns, so this excessive growth is commonly called a harmful algal bloom (HAB). Ecological imbalances that can lead to excessive algal growth, such as increased nutrient availability to waterbodies from natural and anthropogenic sources, are well documented in scientific literature. On the other hand, fundamental scientific understandings of environmental causes and controls leading to algal toxin production, environmental exposures, and adverse health outcomes for humans and animals could benefit from more attention by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists. Understanding when, why, and how the toxin is produced by individual algal cells or communities and why the toxin is released to the surrounding waterbody requires fundamental research to determine a toxin’s role, whether it provides competitive advantage or if other potential reasons exist for toxin production and release, such as secretions from otherwise benign biological processes. This research will require groundbreaking scientific discovery about underlying biologic and abiotic (non-living) processes commonly complicated by local variation in land use, microbial species composition, and ecosystem structure of the surrounding watershed. Although underlying processes by which HABs form may be similar from one waterbody to another, individual waterbodies may be controlled by local factors for HAB development and toxin production that are unique to the watershed. Consequently, many fundamental science gaps exist that prevent informed mitigation and prevention of toxic HAB events. There are also gaps in understanding local conditions that control algal growth unique to specific watersheds. Addressing these science gaps is needed to inform evidence-based decisions that protect human and animal health and that reduce recreational and socioeconomic losses.

Circular

Mount St. Helens ash fall in the Bull Run watershed, Oregon, May-June 1980

On May 25-26, May 30-June 2, and June 12-13, 1980, strong, high-altitude winds from the north occurred during periods of volcanic-ash eruption at Mount St. Helens in southwestern Washington. As a result, ash fell in the Bull Run watershed, Oregon, some 50 miles to the south, the principal water-supply source for the Portland area. Samples from precipitation collectors and from stream sites in the Bull Run watershed were collected on several dates during May and June 1980. Analyses were made and are tabulated for pH, conductivity, acidity, sulfate, and nitrate plus nitrite. Field pH values of the precipitation ranged from 4.0 to 5.6 pH units and the stream samples from 6.7 to 7.5 units. Particle-size analyses for ash samples collected in the Bull Run watershed and Portland, Oregon , are also shown. Volcanic events, precipitation and high-altitude speeds for northerly winds are given for May 18-June 15, 1980.

Oregon

DayCent-Chem simulations of ecological and biogeochemical processes of eight mountain ecosystems in the United States

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) cause complex responses in ecosystems, from fertilization to forest ecosystem decline, freshwater eutrophication to acidification, loss of soil base cations, and alterations of disturbance regimes. DayCent-Chem, an ecosystem simulation model that combines ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant dynamics with aqueous geochemical equilibrium calculations, was developed to address ecosystem responses to combined atmospheric N and S deposition. It is unique among geochemically-based models in its dynamic biological cycling of N and its daily timestep for investigating ecosystem and surface water chemical response to episodic events. The model was applied to eight mountainous watersheds in the United States. The sites represent a gradient of N deposition across locales, from relatively pristine to N-saturated, and a variety of ecosystem types and climates. Overall, the model performed best in predicting stream chemistry for snowmelt-dominated sites. It was more difficult to predict daily stream chemistry for watersheds with deep soils, high amounts of atmospheric deposition, and a large degree of spatial heterogeneity. DayCent-Chem did well in representing plant and soil carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes. Modeled stream nitrate (NO 3 - ) and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations compared well with measurements at all sites, with few exceptions. Simulated daily stream sulfate (SO 4 2- ) concentrations compared well to measured values for sites where SO 4 2- deposition has been low and where SO 4 2- adsorption/desorption reactions did not seem to be important. The concentrations of base cations and silica in streams are highly dependent on the geochemistry and weathering rates of minerals in each catchment, yet these were rarely, if ever, known. Thus, DayCent-Chem could not accurately predict weathering products for some catchments. Additionally, few data were available for exchangeable soil cations or the magnitude of base cation deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

Scientific Investigations Report

Genetic structure of faucet snail, Bithynia tentaculata populations in North Americal based on microsattelite markers

Bithynia tentaculata is believed to have been extirpated from North America during the last glacial maximum. It was reintroduced into North America via the Great Lakes basin in the 1800’s and has recently been expanding its geographic range. This snail serves as intermediate host for three trematodes that cause extensive recurring morbidity and mortality events in migratory water birds along the Mississippi River. Using twelve microsatellite loci for ~200 individual snails from 11 populations in North America and Europe, we examined one of the three major geographic regions from which founding populations into the Great Lakes typically originate. Our data supports a single recolonization of North America into the Great Lakes Basin followed by subsequent introduction events from the Great Lakes to other large watersheds in North America. However, additional watersheds in Europe require sampling to confirm this result. No populations with genetic signatures indicative of North American glacial relics were found. The initial invasion of North America was likely not from the Ponto-Caspian basin, the usual source of freshwater invasive species to the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Freshwater Mollusk Biology and Conservation

Analyzing the effects of land cover change on the water balance for case study watersheds in different forested ecosystems in the USA

We analyzed impacts of interannual disturbance on the water balance of watersheds in different forested ecosystem case studies across the United States from 1985 to 2016 using a remotely sensed long-term land cover monitoring record (U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) Collection 1.0 Science products), gridded precipitation and evaporation data, and streamgaging data using paired watersheds (high and low disturbance). LCMAP products were used to quantify the timing and degree of interannual disturbance and to gain a better understanding of how land cover change affects the water balance of disturbed watersheds. In this paper, we present how LCMAP science products can be used to improve knowledge for hydrologic modeling, climate research, and forest management. Anthropogenic influences (e.g., dams and irrigation diversions) often minimize the impacts of land cover change on water balance dynamics when compared to interannual fluctuations of hydroclimatic events (e.g., drought and flooding). Our findings show that each watershed exhibits a complex suite of influences involving climate variables and other factors that affect each of their water balances differently when land cover change occurs. In this study, forests within arid to semi-arid climates experience greater water balance effects from land cover change than watersheds where water is less limited.

Land

Sediment and discharge yields within a minimally disturbed, headwater watershed in North Central Pennsylvania, USA, with an emphasis on Superstorm Sandy

We estimated discharge and suspended sediment (SS) yield in a minimally disturbed watershed in North Central Pennsylvania, USA, and compared a typical storm (September storm, 4.80 cm) to a large storm (Superstorm Sandy, 7.47 cm rainfall). Depending on branch, Sandy contributed 9.7&ndash;19.9 times more discharge and 11.5&ndash;37.4 times more SS than the September storm. During the September storm, the upper two branches accounted for 60.6% of discharge and 88.8% of SS at Lower Branch; during Sandy these percentages dropped to 36.1% for discharge and 30.1% for SS. The branch with close proximity roads had over two-three times per area SS yield than the branch without such roads. Hysteresis loops showed typical clockwise patterns for the September storm and more complicated patterns for Sandy, reflecting the multipeak event. Estimates of SS and hysteresis in minimally disturbed watersheds provide useful information that can be compared spatially and temporally to facilitate management.

Pennsylvania