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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Declining reservoir reliability and increasing reservoir vulnerability: Long-term observations reveal longer and more severe periods of low reservoir storage for major United States reservoirs

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

Continental United States↗
USGS2014

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) activities at the Department of the Interior

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) is responsible for protecting and managing the natural resources and heritage on almost 20% of the land in the United States. The DOI’s mission requires access to remotely sensed data over vast lands, including areas that are remote and potentially dangerous to access. Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) technology has the potential to enable the DOI to be a better steward of the land by: (1) Improving natural hazard forecasting and the analysis of the impacts. (2) Improving the understanding of climate change to better plan for likely impacts. (3) Developing precipitation and evaporation forecasting to better manage water resources. (4) Monitoring Arctic ice change and its impacts on ecosystems, coasts, and transportation. (5) Increasing safety and effectiveness of wildland fire management. (6) Enhancing search and rescue capabilities. (7) Broadening the abilities to monitor environmental or landscape conditions and changes. (8) Better understanding and protecting the Nation’s ecosystems. The initial operational testing and evaluations performed by the DOI have proven that UAS technology can be used to support many of the Department’s activities. UAS technology provides scientists a way to look longer, closer and more frequently at some of Earth’s most remote areas—places that were previously too dangerous or expensive to monitor in detail. The flexibility of operations and relative low cost to purchase and operate Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) enhances the ability to track long-term landscape and environmental change. The initial testing indicates the operational costs are approximately 10% of traditional manned aircraft. In addition, users can quickly assess landscape-altering events such as wildland fires, floods and volcanoes. UAS technology will allow the DOI to do more with less and in the process enhance the Department’s ability to provide unbiased scientific information to help stakeholders make informed decisions. It will also provide a digital baseline record that can be archived and used when monitoring future events or conditions. One possible future scenario has scientists carrying sUAS into the field allowing quick deployment and operation to observe the environment or for emergency response. This scenario could also include a persistent monitoring capability provided by a UAS that can stay airborne over a small geographic area for days or weeks, or possibly longer. While the DOI focus is on sUAS, the Department recognizes that larger UAS systems will also play a role in meeting its mission. The Department anticipates meeting long-duration or specialized acquisition commitments, such as state or national aerial photography, by collaboration with other agencies or through commercial contracts. Even though the DOI continues to evaluate UAS and sensor technology to meet the Department’s mission, some of its bureaus are already moving towards an operational capability. The authors fully anticipate that by 2020 UAS will emerge as one of the primary platforms for DOI remote sensing applications.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2012

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

Introduction Evaluating the environmental impacts of climate change on water resources and biological components of the landscape is an integral part of hydrologic and ecological investigations, and the resultant land and resource management in the twenty-first century. Impacts of both climate and simulated hydrologic parameters on ecological processes are relevant at scales that reflect the heterogeneity and complexity of landscapes. At present, simulations of climate change available from global climate models [GCMs] require downscaling for hydrologic or ecological applications. Methods Using statistically downscaled future climate projections developed using constructed analogues, a methodology was developed to further downscale the projections spatially using a gradient-inverse-distance-squared approach for application to hydrologic modeling at 270-m spatial resolution. Results This paper illustrates a methodology to downscale and bias-correct national GCMs to subkilometer scales that are applicable to fine-scale environmental processes. Four scenarios were chosen to bracket the range of future emissions put forth by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fine-scale applications of downscaled datasets of ecological and hydrologic correlations to variation in climate are illustrated. Conclusions The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

Ecological Processes↗
USGS2002

Identifying and assessing ecotourism visitor impacts at selected protected areas in Costa Rica and Belize

Protected area visitation is an important component of ecotourism, and as such, must be sustainable. However, protected area visitation may degrade natural resources, particularly in areas of concentrated visitor activities like trails and recreation sites. This is an important concern in ecotourism destinations such as Belize and Costa Rica, because they actively promote ecotourism and emphasize the pristine qualities of their natural resources. Research on visitor impacts to protected areas has many potential applications in protected area management, though it has not been widely applied in Central and South America. This study targeted this deficiency through manager interviews and evaluations of alternative impact assessment procedures at eight protected areas in Belize and Costa Rica. Impact assessment procedures included qualitative condition class systems, ratings systems, and measurement-based systems applied to trails and recreation sites. The resulting data characterize manager perceptions of impact problems, document trail and recreation site impacts, and provide examples of inexpensive, efficient and effective rapid impact assessment procedures. Interview subjects reported a variety of impacts affecting trails, recreation sites, wildlife, water, attraction features and other resources. Standardized assessment procedures were developed and applied to record trail and recreation site impacts. Impacts affecting the study areas included trail proliferation, erosion and widening, muddiness on trails, vegetation cover loss, soil and root exposure, and tree damage on recreation sites. The findings also illustrate the types of assessment data yielded by several alternative methods and demonstrate their utility to protected area managers. The need for additional rapid assessment procedures for wildlife, water, attraction feature and other resource impacts was also identified.

Environmental Conservation↗
USGS2020

Analysis of aquifer framework and hydraulic properties of Lovelock Valley, Lovelock, Nevada

Multiple aquifer tests were conducted in Lovelock, Nevada, to determine hydraulic conductivity and storage properties to be used with the numerical groundwater flow model of the lower Humboldt River Basin while accounting for the influence of surface features with a modeling component. The numerical model will ultimately provide the Nevada Division of Water Resources (NDWR) with information regarding the impacts of groundwater pumping on the Humboldt River, allowing the Nevada State Engineer to make informed decisions in the conjunctive management of the State’s groundwater and surface water resources. Seven slug tests, one single-well pumping test, and two multi-well pumping tests were conducted to evaluate properties of shallow Lahontan clays and silts; shallow fluvial deposits; and coarser, water-bearing deposits of the younger alluvium. Aquifer tests were conducted between March 2017 and April 2018. Results indicate aquifers in the Lovelock Valley have transmissivity ranging between 0.0001 and 95,000 feet squared per day (ft 2 /day). The results of these tests provide constraints on hydraulic properties for a numerical groundwater flow model being developed for a capture study in the lower Humboldt River Basin.

Nevada↗
USGS2016

A review and synthesis of recreation ecology research findings on visitor impacts to wilderness and protected natural areas

The 50th anniversary of the US Wilderness Act of 1964 presents a worthy opportunity to review our collective knowledge on how recreation visitation affects wilderness and protected natural area resources. Studies of recreation impacts, examined within the recreation ecology field of study, have spanned 80 years and generated more than 1,200 citations. This article examines the recreation ecology literature most relevant to wilderness and backcountry, with a focus on visitor impacts to vegetation, soil, wildlife, and water resources. We also review relationships with influential factors, such as the amount of use, visitor behavior, and vegetation type. An understanding of these impacts and their relationships with influential factors is necessary for land managers seeking to identify acceptable limits of impact or selecting management actions that will effectively avoid or minimize resource impacts.

Journal of Forestry↗
USGS2017

Satellite-based water use dynamics using historical Landsat data (1984–2014) in the southwestern United States

Remote sensing-based field-scale evapotranspiration (ET) maps are useful for characterizing water use patterns and assessing crop performance. The relative impact of climate variability and water management decisions are better studied and quantified using historical data that are derived using a set of consistent datasets and methodology. Historical (1984–2014) Landsat-based ET maps were generated for major irrigation districts in California, i.e., Palo Verde and eight other sub-basins in parts of the middle and lower Central Valley. A total of 3396 Landsat images were processed using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model that integrates weather and remotely sensed images to estimate monthly and annual ET within the study sites over the 31 years. Model output evaluation and validation using gridded-flux data and water balance ET approaches indicated relatively good correspondence (R 2 up to 0.88, root mean square error as low as 14 mm/month) between SSEBop ET and validation datasets. In a pairwise comparison, annual variability of agro-hydrologic parameters of actual evapotranspiration ( ET a ), land surface temperature ( T s ), and runoff ( Q ) were found to be more variable than their corresponding climatic counterparts of atmospheric water demand ( ET o ), air temperature ( T a ), and precipitation ( P ), revealing process differences between regional climatic drivers and localized agro-hydrologic responses. However, only T a showed a consistent increase (up to 1.2 K) over study sites during the 31 years, whereas other climate variables such as ET o and P showed a generally neutral trend. This study demonstrates a useful application of “Big Data” science where large volumes of historical Landsat and weather datasets were used to quantify and understand the relative importance of water management and climate variability in crop water use dynamics in regards to the linkages among water management decisions, hydrologic processes and economic transactions. Irrigation district-wide ET a estimates were used to compute historical crop water use volumes and monetary equivalents of water savings for the Palo Verde Irrigation District (PVID). During the peak crop fallowing year in PVID, the water saved reached a maximum of ~ 107,200 acre-feet in 2011 with an estimated monetary payout value of $20.5 million. A significant decreasing trend in actual ET despite an increasing atmospheric demand in PVID highlights the role of management decisions in affecting local hydrologic processes. This study has importance for planning water resource allocation, managing water rights, sustaining agricultural production, and quantifying impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on water resources. With increased computational efficiency, similar studies can be conducted in other parts of the world to help policy and decision makers understand and quantify various aspects of water resources management.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2001

Land use change and effects on water quality and ecosystem health in the Lake Tahoe basin, Nevada and California

Human activity in the Lake Tahoe Basin has increased substantially in the past four decades, causing significant impacts on the quality and clarity of the lake's famous deep, clear water. Protection of Lake Tahoe and the surrounding environment has become an important activity in recent years. A variety of agencies, including the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, Tahoe Research Group of the University of California at Davis, Desert Research Institute of the University and Community College System of Nevada, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and a host of State (both Nevada and California) and local agencies have been monitoring and conducting research in the Basin in order to understand how the lake functions and to what extent humans have affected its landscape and ecosystem processes. In spite of all of these activities, there remains a lack of comprehensive land use change data and analysis for the Basin. A project is underway that unites the land cover mapping expertise of the USGS National Mapping Discipline with the hydrologic expertise of the Water Resources Discipline to assess the impacts of urban growth and land use change in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Three activities are planned over the next 3 years: (1) mapping the current and historic state of the land surface, (2) conducting analysis to document patterns, rates, and trends in urbanization, land use change, and ecosystem health, and (3) assessing the causes and consequences of land use change with regard to water quality and ecosystem health. We hypothesize that changes in the extent of urban growth and the corresponding increases in impervious surfaces and decreases in natural vegetation have resulted in severe impacts on ecosystem health and integrity, riparian zones and water quality over time. We are acting on multiple fronts to test this hypothesis through the quantification of landscape disturbances and impacts.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2015

Reactive transport modeling of geochemical controls on secondary water quality impacts at a crude oil spill site near Bemidji, MN

Anaerobic biodegradation of organic amendments and contaminants in aquifers can trigger secondary water quality impacts that impair groundwater resources. Reactive transport models help elucidate how diverse geochemical reactions control the spatiotemporal evolution of these impacts. Using extensive monitoring data from a crude oil spill site near Bemidji, Minnesota (USA), we implemented a comprehensive model that simulates secondary plumes of depleted dissolved O 2 and elevated concentrations of Mn 2+ , Fe 2+ , CH 4 , and Ca 2+ over a two-dimensional cross section for 30 years following the spill. The model produces observed changes by representing multiple oil constituents and coupled carbonate and hydroxide chemistry. The model includes reactions with carbonates and Fe and Mn mineral phases, outgassing of CH 4 and CO 2 gas phases, and sorption of Fe, Mn, and H + . Model results demonstrate that most of the carbon loss from the oil (70%) occurs through direct outgassing from the oil source zone, greatly limiting the amount of CH 4 cycled down-gradient. The vast majority of reduced Fe is strongly attenuated on sediments, with most (91%) in the sorbed form in the model. Ferrous carbonates constitute a small fraction of the reduced Fe in simulations, but may be important for furthering the reduction of ferric oxides. The combined effect of concomitant redox reactions, sorption, and dissolved CO 2 inputs from source-zone degradation successfully reproduced observed pH. The model demonstrates that secondary water quality impacts may depend strongly on organic carbon properties, and impacts may decrease due to sorption and direct outgassing from the source zone.

Minnesota↗
USGS2026

Spatially referenced watershed models for the binational Red–Assiniboine River Basin: Bayesian vs frequentist comparison

Excess nutrient loading remains a leading cause of declining water quality in lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters worldwide, with global economic costs of US$200 billion – US$2 trillion annually from impacts on fisheries, tourism, freshwater resources, and water treatment. Our study focuses on total phosphorus (TP) in Lake Winnipeg and its binational Red-Assiniboine River Basin, where nutrient inputs have degraded water quality and increased cyanobacterial blooms. These changes pose ecological, public health, and economic risks. We applied a spatially referenced watershed model with a hybrid statistical-mechanistic structure partitioning annual nutrient loads into land-use export, land-to-water delivery, and in-reservoir decay. Bayesian and traditional frequentist model calibrations were compared. In the frequentist model, coefficients for agricultural inputs, forests /wetlands, stream channels, precipitation, and reservoir losses were statistically significant, whereas coefficient for wastewater was not. In contrast, all variables were successfully calibrated using the Bayesian approach. Model results delineate TP-export hotspots across the basin, showing that 54–62% of TP originates from the U.S., with agricultural sources ranging 62–72%—highlighting the importance of agriculture-focused Best Management Practices. Given the global relevance of nutrient-driven water-quality challenges, our results highlight Bayesian calibration for robust risk assessment and adaptive nutrient management.

Red–Assiniboine River Basin↗
USGS1984

Availability and chemistry of ground water on the Bruneau Plateau and adjacent eastern plain in Twin Falls County, south-central Idaho

The Bruneau plateau in south-central Idaho consists of about 889 ,600 acres of potentially irrigable land. About 112,200 of these acres have been developed for agriculture; 11,200 acres are irrigated with ground water, and the remaining acreage is irrigated with water from the Snake and Bruneau rivers and Salmon Falls Creek. On the basis of present usage, about 158,000 acre-feet of water per year are needed to develop an additional 63,000 acres. About 438,000 acre-feet per year are needed to irrigate existing and newly developed lands in dry years when streamflow in the Snake River at Milner Dam is inadequate to meet appropriated needs. Pumping lifts of about 400-600 feet and low well yields on the Bruneau plateau probably preclude large-scale irrigation development solely from local ground-water resources. However, supplemental sources of irrigation water are available from a perched-water aquifer, a thermal aquifer, and the regional aquifer adjacent to the plateau. About 100,000-115,000 acre-feet per year of water probably could be withdrawn from the perched and regional aquifers and conveyed to the plateau without serious impact on local ground-water resources. The amount of water that could be safely withdrawn from the thermal aquifer was not determined. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Recreational impacts to wildlife: Managing visitors and resources to protect wildlife

Publication Abstract: Visitor use management is essential for maximizing benefits for visitors while achieving and maintaining desired resource conditions and visitor experiences on federally managed lands and waters. Visitor capacity, a component of visitor use management, is defined as the maximum amounts and types of visitor use that an area can accommodate while achieving and maintaining the desired resource conditions and visitor experiences that are consistent with the purposes for which the area was established. This visitor capacity guidebook, in combination with the “Visitor Use Management Framework” (the framework), provides managers with processes to collaboratively develop long-term strategies to manage the amounts and types of visitor use to protect resources, improve access, connect visitors to key experiences, and achieve desired conditions. The purpose of this guidebook is to provide cohesive guidance on identifying and implementing visitor capacity on federally managed lands and waters. Similar to the framework, the sliding scale of analysis is discussed throughout this guidebook to ensure the investment of time, money, and other resources for a project is commensurate with the complexity of the project and the consequences of the decision. Overall, this guidebook is meant to expand on the framework and guide a professional and consistent approach to identifying and implementing visitor capacity. Paper Abstract: Most protected natural areas, including parks, forests, and wildlife refuges, are managed under a dual mandate to preserve predominantly natural settings and processes while also accommodating recreational visitation. Visitor activities can have deleterious impacts to protected area vegetation, soil, water, wildlife, and cultural resources. The term impact denotes undesirable visitor-related effects to natural resources and/or wildlife. This paper reviews the management of recreation impacts to wildlife, including discussions of influential factors, impact indicators, and the range of management responses. This information is provided to assist recreation and land managers in avoiding or minimizing visitor impact to wildlife, particularly related to decision-making within the new Visitor Use Management (VUM) framework. Such decision-making requires a thorough understanding of the different types of wildlife impact and the use-related, environmental, and managerial factors that influence them.

Report↗
USGS2017

Groundwater flow model for the Little Plover River basin in Wisconsin’s Central Sands

The Little Plover River is a groundwater-fed stream in the sand plains region of central Wisconsin. In this region, sandy sediment deposited during or soon after the last glaciation forms an important unconfined sand and gravel aquifer. This aquifer supplies water for numerous high-capacity irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells that support a thriving agricultural industry. In recent years the addition of many new wells, combined with observed diminished flows in the Little Plover and other nearby rivers, has raised concerns about the impacts of the wells on groundwater levels and on water levels and flows in nearby lakes, streams, and wetlands. Diverse stakeholder groups, including well operators, Growers, environmentalists, local land owners, and regulatory and government officials have sought a better understanding of the local groundwater-surface water system and have a shared desire to balance the water needs of the he liagricultural, industrial, and urban users with the maintenance and protection of groundwater-dependent natural resources. To help address these issues, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources requested that the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and U.S. Geological Survey cooperatively develop a groundwater flow model that could be used to demonstrate the relationships among groundwater, surface water, and well withdrawals and also be a tool for testing and evaluating alternative water management strategies for the central sands region. Because of an abundance of previous studies, data availability, local interest, and existing regulatory constraints the model focuses on the Little Plover River watershed, but the modeling methodology developed during this study can apply to much of the larger central sands of Wisconsin. The Little Plover River groundwater flow model simulates three-dimensional groundwater movement in and around the Little Plover River basin under steady-state and transient conditions. This model explicitly includes all high-capacity wells in the model domain and simulates seasonal variations in recharge and well pumping. The model represents the Little Plover River, and other significant streams and drainage ditches in the model domain, as fully connected to the groundwater system, computes stream base flow resulting from groundwater discharge, and routes the flow along the stream channel. A separate soil-water-balance (SWB) model was used to develop groundwater recharge arrays as input for the groundwater flow model. The SWB model uses topography, soils, land use, and climatic data to estimate recharge as deep drainage from the soil zone. The SWB model explicitly includes recharge originating as irrigation water, and computes irrigation using techniques similar to those used by local irrigation operators. The groundwater flow model uses the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW modeling code which is freely available, widely accepted, and commonly used by the groundwater community. The groundwater flow model and the SWB model use identical high-resolution numerical grids having model cells 100 feet on a side, with physical properties assigned to each grid cell. This grid allows accurate geographic placement of wells, streams, and other model features. The 3-dimensional grid has three layers; layers 1 and 2 represent the sand and gravel aquifer and layer 3 represents the underlying sandstone. The distribution of material properties in the model (hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, etc.) comes from previous published geologic studies of the region, updated by calibration to recent streamflow and groundwater level data. The SWB model operates on a daily time step. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to monthly stress periods with time steps ranging from 1 to 16 days. More detailed time discretization is possible. The groundwater model was calibrated to water-level and streamflow data collected during 2013 and 2014 by adjusting model parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, storage, and recharge) until the model produced a conditionally optimal fit between field observations and model output, subject to consistency with previously published geologic studies. Calibration was performed under both steady and transient conditions, and used a sophisticated parameter-estimation procedure (PEST) for the calibration process and to identify important model parameters. For the Little Plover River, the two most important parameters are the global recharge multiplier and the hydraulic conductivity of the stream bed. The calibrated model produces water-level and mass-balance results that are consistent with field observations and previous studies of the area. The completed model is a powerful tool for testing and demonstrating alternative water-management scenarios. Example model applications described in this report include simulating how the cumulative impacts of pumping and land-use change have affected average baseflow in the Little Plover River. Depletion-potential mapping represents a method for predicting which wells and well locations have the greatest impact on nearby surface-water resources. The completed model is publicly available, along with a companion user’s guide to assist with its operation, at http://wgnhs.org/littleplover- river-groundwater-model.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2006

Impacts of the 2004 tsunami on groundwater resources in Sri Lanka

The 26 December 2004 tsunami caused widespread destruction and contamination of coastal aquifers across southern Asia. Seawater filled domestic open dug wells and also entered the aquifers via direct infiltration during the first flooding waves and later as ponded seawater infiltrated through the permeable sands that are typical of coastal aquifers. In Sri Lanka alone, it is estimated that over 40,000 drinking water wells were either destroyed or contaminated. From February through September 2005, a team of United States, Sri Lankan, and Danish water resource scientists and engineers surveyed the coastal groundwater resources of Sri Lanka to develop an understanding of the impacts of the tsunami and to provide recommendations for the future of coastal water resources in south Asia. In the tsunami‐affected areas, seawater was found to have infiltrated and mixed with fresh groundwater lenses as indicated by the elevated groundwater salinity levels. Seawater infiltrated through the shallow vadose zone as well as entered aquifers directly through flooded open wells. Our preliminary transport analysis demonstrates that the intruded seawater has vertically mixed in the aquifers because of both forced and free convection. Widespread pumping of wells to remove seawater was effective in some areas, but overpumping has led to upconing of the saltwater interface and rising salinity. We estimate that groundwater recharge from several monsoon seasons will reduce salinity of many sandy Sri Lankan coastal aquifers. However, the continued sustainability of these small and fragile aquifers for potable water will be difficult because of the rapid growth of human activities that results in more intensive groundwater pumping and increased pollution. Long‐term sustainability of coastal aquifers is also impacted by the decrease in sand replenishment of the beaches due to sand mining and erosion.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1974

Pesticides data-collection activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in Texas

The water-resources investigations program of the Geological Survey has the objective of seeing that the Nation's water resources are appraised and that the necessary water data to develop and manage them efficiently are available when needed. In carrying out this objective, the Survey is the primary source of hydrologic data that are basic not only to the quantification of the water resource but also to its development and conservation. In recent years, the need has developed for the Survey to provide data and technology to predict the impact of man's activities upon the water resource and the water environment. To accomplish its mission, the Geological Survey determines the source, quantity, quality, distribution, movement, and availability of both surface and ground water. This work includes the assessment of the chemical, physical, and biological quality of water resources and its relation to various parts of the hydrologic cycle; research to improve the scientific basis of investigations and techniques; design and operation of a national water-data network; and publication of its investigations.

Texas↗
USGS2018

Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Colorado River↗
USGS2021

Climate change risks and adaptation options for Madagascar

Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is often considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions, but also due to insufficient scientific information to inform management decisions. Madagascar is a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, population growth, and exploitation of natural resources. The country faces development and environmental challenges that may be intensified by climate change. The objective of this review is to provide a synthesis of the best-available information regarding climate change impacts on sectoral interests in Madagascar. To do this, we conducted a review of recent literature and conducted formal discussions with development agencies, non-government organizations (NGOs), and other stakeholders. Climate risks in Madagascar include increasing temperatures, reduced and more variable precipitation, more frequent droughts, more intense cyclones, and rising sea levels. We synthesized the observed and projected impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, human health, coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, and we discuss ongoing climate adaptation and mitigation activities. Because sectoral challenges and opportunities are linked, coordination among development organizations would be beneficial as they create new climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2012

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Florida↗