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USGS2014

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2012

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexic↗
USGS2000

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Souris River, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba

The Souris River Basin is a 24,600-square-mile basin located in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. The Souris River Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group, formed in 1989 by the governments of Canada and the United States, is responsible for documenting trends in water quality in the Souris River and making recommendations for monitoring future water-quality conditions. This report presents results of a study conducted for the Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historic trends in water quality in the Souris River and to determine efficient sampling designs for monitoring future trends. U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada water-quality data collected during 1977-96 from four sites near the boundary crossings between Canada and the United States were included in the trend analysis. A parametric time-series model was developed for detecting trends in historic constituent concentration data. The model can be applied to constituents that have at least 90 percent of observations above detection limits of the analyses, which, for the Souris River, includes most major ions and nutrients and many trace elements. The model can detect complex nonmonotonic trends in concentration in the presence of complex interannual and seasonal variability in daily discharge. A key feature of the model is its ability to handle highly irregular sampling intervals. For example, the intervals between concentration measurements may be be as short as 10 days to as long as several months, and the number of samples in any given year can range from zero to 36. Results from the trend analysis for the Souris River indicated numerous trends in constituent concentration. The most significant trends at the two sites located near the upstream boundary crossing between Saskatchewan and North Dakota consisted of increases in concentrations of most major ions, dissolved boron, and dissolved arsenic during 1987-91 and decreases in concentrations of the same constituents during 1992-96. Significant trends at the two sites located near the downstream boundary crossing between North Dakota and Manitoba included increases in dissolved sodium, dissolved chloride, and total phosphorus during 1977-86, decreases in dissolved oxygen and dissolved boron and increases in total phosphorus and dissolved iron during 1987-91, and a decrease in total phosphorus during 1992-96. The time-series model also was used to determine the sensitivity of various sampling designs for monitoring future water-quality trends in the Souris River. It was determined that at least two samples per year are required in each of three seasons--March through June, July through October, and November through February--to obtain reasonable sensitivity for detecting trends in each season. In addition, substantial improvements occurred in sensitivity for detecting trends by adding a third sample for major ions and trace elements in March through June, adding a third sample for nutrients in July through October, and adding a third sample for nutrients, trace elements, and dissolved oxygen in November through February.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2015

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

Trends in pesticide concentrations in 38 major rivers of the United States were evaluated in relation to use trends for 11 commonly occurring pesticide compounds. Pesticides monitored in water were analyzed for trends in concentration in three overlapping periods, 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–2010 to facilitate comparisons among sites with variable sample distributions over time and among pesticides with changes in use during different periods and durations. Concentration trends were analyzed using the SEAWAVE-Q model, which incorporates intra-annual variability in concentration and measures of long-term, mid-term, and short-term streamflow variability. Trends in agricultural use within each of the river basins were determined using interval-censored regression with high and low estimates of use. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2018

Effects of antecedent streamflow and sample timing on trend assessments of fish, invertebrate, and diatom communities

Detecting trends in biological attributes is central to many stream monitoring programs; however, understanding how natural variability in environmental factors affects trend results is not well understood. We evaluated the influence of antecedent streamflow and sample timing (covariates) on trend estimates for fish, invertebrate, and diatom taxa richness and biological condition from 2002 to 2012 at 51 sites distributed across the conterminous United States. A combination of linear regression and Kendall‐tau test for trends were used to evaluate covariate influence on trend estimates. Adjusting for covariates changed the magnitude of trend estimates in two‐thirds of cases on average by 21%, most often reducing the estimated magnitude of the trend. Additionally, covariates influenced the interpretation of over one‐third of trend estimates by either strengthening or weakening trends after adjustment. Our findings clearly indicate that antecedent streamflow and sample timing influences trend estimates and subsequent interpretation. Accounting for covariates during trend analysis will enhance stream monitoring programs by providing a better understanding and interpretation of estimated changes in biological endpoints at monitored sites. Failure to account for antecedent streamflow and sample timing may lead to mischaracterization of a trend and/or misunderstanding of potential causes.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2003

Applied geochemistry, geology and mineralogy of the northernmost Carlin trend, Nevada

Investigations in the northernmost Carlin trend were undertaken to advance understanding of the geochemical signatures and genesis of precious metal deposits in the trend . Two fundamental geologic relationships near the trend significantly affect regional geochemical distributions: a remarkably intact lower Paleozoic stratigraphic sequence of siliceous rocks in the upper plate of the middle Paleozoic Roberts Mountains thrust, and the widespread repetition of rocks high in the upper plate during late Paleozoic thrusting that thickens the cover above mineralized rock in the lower plate. A compilation of previously published chemical analyses of 440 stream sediment samples and 115 rocks from two 7 1/2-minute quadrangles, as well as new chemical analyses of approximately 1,000 drill core samples in a 1,514 m (4,970 ft) hole through the Rodeo Creek deposit were used to construct three-dimensional element distribution models that highlight metal zonation in the mineralized systems. The Rodeo Creek deposit comprises deep Ag base-metal ± Au-mineralized rock below the Roberts Mountains thrust and contains an unusually high Ag/Au ratio greater than 30. Stacked geochemical halos related to the deposit are confined to the lower plate of the Roberts Mountains thrust and include two horizons of Hg, Cu, and Zn anomalies-as much as 180 m above the deposit-that mostly result from mercurian sphalerite. Extremely subtle indications of mineralization in the upper plate of the Roberts Mountains thrust above the deposit include arsenopyrite overgrowths on small pyrite crystals in 50- to 75-μm-wide clay-carbonate veinlets that lack alteration halos, arsenical rims on small disseminated crystal of recrystallized diagenetic pyrite, and partial replacement of diagenetic pyrite by tennantite. Some of these minerals contain anomalously high Au. However, these As-(Au)-bearing rocks most likely represent another locus of largely untested mineralized rock rather than distal halos related to either the Rodeo Creek or the nearby Dee and Storm gold deposits. Application of micromineralogic techniques helped to identify mineral assemblages that are specific to mineralization and provided an empirical foundation for interpretations of geochemical halos in the Carlin trend . District-scale geochemical patterns of several elements in stream sediments and surface rocks coincide with the northernmost Carlin trend and can be used to explore for Carlin -type deposits. Concentrations of elevated As and Sb in stream sediments (as much as 54 ppm As) have northwest-elongate lobate patterns that clearly outline the trend across a width of approximately 4 km. Arsenic contents of exposed rocks (as much as 90 ppm As) strongly correlate with As contents of derivative stream sediments, and rock contents of Sb show a somewhat lesser but nonetheless strong and similar correspondence. Factor analysis of stream-sediment data shows that those factor scores that are correlated with As, Sb, Au, and Pb also are high along the trend and suggest that mineralized rocks may be present. Although As was not detected by scanning electron microscope-energy dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS) studies in heavy mineral concentrates of high-As stream sediments in the Carlin trend , X-ray absorption near-edge spectra (XANES) of selected light fractions of stream sediment samples indicate that Al-bearing phases, such as gibbsite, amorphous Al oxyhydroxides, or aluminosilicate clay minerals host most of the As(V). The best fit, visually and in terms of the lowest residual, was obtained by a model compound of As(V) sorbed to gibbsite. Thus, most As in stream sediments derived from altered rock within the Carlin trend apparently is contained in light fractions. The geochemical character of young, unconsolidated, postmineral deposits that cover mineralized rocks on the Carlin trend partly results from mineralized sources along the trend . Concentration of As in the Miocene Carlin Formation shows an exceptionally well developed progressive increase to about 30 ppm As as altered rock surrounding the trend is approached. Mineralized and/or altered rock fragments probably have been shed directly into the sedimentary basin of the Carlin Formation, and migration of As, now fixed as As(V), also may have occurred in the supergene environment after material was recycled out of the Carlin Formation and into present-day gulleys.

Nevada↗
USGS2020

Water-quality trends for selected sites and constituents in the international Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota and North Dakota, United States, and Manitoba, Canada, 1970–2017

A comprehensive study to evaluate water-quality trends, while considering natural hydroclimatic variability, in the Red River of the North Basin and assess water-quality conditions for the Red River of the North crossing the international boundary near Emerson, Manitoba, Canada (the binational site), was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and in collaboration with Manitoba Sustainable Development and Environment and Climate Change Canada. The international Red River of the North Basin encompasses 3 U.S. States (South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota) and 1 Canadian Province (Manitoba). Water quality in the Red River of the North Basin is of concern for both Federal governments and State and Provincial governments. Water-quality objectives have been previously established for selected dissolved ions and recently (2019) proposed for selected nutrients for the binational site. In the current (2020) study, water-quality data from State, Provincial, and Federal agencies in the United States and Canada for sites in the Red River of the North Basin from 1970 to 2017 were compiled and used for trend analysis. Trend analysis using a water-quality dataset from multiple agencies that collect water-quality data for various objectives presented multiple challenges. The trend-analysis approach was able to accommodate differences in water-quality data caused by field-collection and laboratory-analytical method differences, disparities in sampling frequencies, and spatial and temporal gaps in data. Most of these challenges were overcome by the statistical tool, R–QWTREND, which identifies trends in concentration unrelated to variability in streamflow. The integrated basin approach used in the current study, combined with comparing current data trends with historical trends, provided valuable insights into understanding how water quality is changing spatially (34 sites analyzed for a recent period, 2000–15) and temporally (5 sites analyzed for a 45-year historical period, 1970–2015) within the Red River of the North Basin. One of the most consistent spatial and temporal changes observed in the current study was increasing concentrations of sulfate among tributary and main-stem sites since 2000. For some sites, increases were detected starting as early as 1985. Total dissolved solids and chloride concentrations had spatial and temporal patterns like sulfate. Although R–QWTREND removes the variability in constituent concentration caused by natural streamflow variability, all variability in sulfate caused by hydroclimatic variability may not be captured because of changes in hydrologic pathways and changes in the contributions of sulfate from various natural sources. Nutrient concentrations demonstrated less consistent spatial and temporal changes than sulfate, and changes in nutrient concentrations were assumed to be more closely tied to human-induced rather than natural changes. Nitrate-plus-nitrite concentrations were mostly increasing in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, and for nitrate plus nitrite and total nitrogen, the Sheyenne River subbasin had consistent decreasing concentrations. Since 2000, total phosphorus has decreased in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, but total phosphorus concentration has increased for sites in the lower Red River of the North subbasin, and for some main-stem sites, concentrations have been increasing since 1985. Unlike sulfate, the pattern in historical trends for total phosphorus for the main-stem sites differed from tributary sites, indicating that human-induced changes affected tributaries and main-stem sites differently. The more detailed evaluation of flow-averaged water-quality conditions for the binational site provided an understanding of how loads have changed over time and what proportion of the year and season concentrations are expected to exceed water-quality objectives. In a basin with highly variable streamflow like the Red River of the North, the trend in flow-averaged load (assuming streamflow conditions are the same year after year) provided a robust measure of change over time. Increasing concentrations of sulfate, chloride, total dissolved solids, and total phosphorus since 1985 for the binational site resulted in longer periods of exceedance of water-quality objectives per year occurring over time. For total nitrogen, decreasing concentrations resulted in shorter periods of exceedance per year during 1980 to 2015, but concentrations were still expected to exceed the water-quality objective about half the year. Periods of when exceedances were likely to occur during the year were affected by the source and transport mechanisms of the constituent. Trend results from this effort identified how water quality has changed across the basin, and further investigation would help to identify causes for the trends observed here. Information from the current study provides a basis for future trend attribution studies, evaluation of water-quality objectives, and development of comprehensive strategies for reducing nutrients to desired targets and establishes a baseline for tracking future progress in the Red River of the North Basin.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Manitoba↗
USGS2002

Trend analysis of ground-water levels and spring discharge in the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada and California, 1960-2000

Ground-water level and discharge data from 1960 to 2000 were analyzed for the Yucca Mountain region of southern Nevada and eastern California. Included were water-level data from 37 wells and a fissure (Devils Hole) and discharge data from five springs and from a flowing well. Data were evaluated for variability and for upward, downward, or cyclic trends with an emphasis on the period 1992-2000. Potential factors causing trends in water levels and discharge include ground-water withdrawal, infiltration of precipitation, earthquakes, evapotranspiration, barometric pressure, and earth tides. Statistically significant trends in ground-water levels or spring discharge from 1992 to 2000 were upward at 12 water-level sites and downward at 14 water-level sites and 1 spring-discharge site. In general, the magnitude of the change in water level from 1992 to 2000 was small (less than 2 feet), except where influenced by pumping or local effects such as possible equilibration from well construction or diversion of nearby surface water. Seasonal trends are superimposed on some of the long-term (1992-2000) trends in water levels and discharge. Factors causing seasonal trends include barometric pressure, evapotranspiration, and pumping. The magnitude of seasonal change in water level can vary from as little as 0.05 foot in regional aquifers to greater than 5 feet in monitoring wells near large supply wells in the Amargosa Farms area. Three major episodes of earthquake activity affected water levels in wells in the Yucca Mountain region between 1992 and 2000: the Landers/Little Skull Mountain, Northridge, and Hector Mine earthquakes. The Landers/Little Skull Mountain earthquakes, in June 1992, had the largest observed effect on water levels and on discharge during the study period. Monthly measurements of wells in the study network show that earthquakes affected water levels from a few tenths of a foot to 3.5 feet. In the Ash Meadows area, water levels remained relatively stable from 1992 to 2000, with some water levels showing small rising trends and some declining slightly. Possible reasons for water-level fluctuations at sites AD-6 (Tracer Well 3), AM-5 (Devils Hole Well), and AM-4 (Devils Hole) from 1960 to 2000 include climate change, local and regional ground-water withdrawals, and tectonic activity. In Jackass Flats, water levels from 1992 to 2000 in six wells adjacent to Fortymile Wash displayed either small upward trends or no upward or downward trend. Comparison of trends in water levels from 1983 to 2000 for these six wells shows good correlations between all wells and suggests a common mechanism controlling water levels in the area. Of the likely controls on the system--precipitation or pumping in Jackass Flats--precipitation appears to be the predominant factor controlling water levels near Fortymile Wash. Water levels in the heavily pumped Amargosa Farms area declined from about 10 to 30 feet from 1964 to 2000. Water-level declines accelerated beginning in the early 1990's as pumping rates increased substantially. Pumping in the Amargosa Farms area may affect water levels in some wells as far away as 5-14 miles. The water level at site DV-3 (Travertine Point 1 Well) and discharge at site DV-2 (Navel Spring), both in the Death Valley hydrographic area, had downward trends from 1992 to 2000. The cause of these downward trends may be linked to earthquakes, pumping in the Amargosa Farms area, or both.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Water resources of Monroe County, New York, water years 1997-99, with emphasis on water quality in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Atmospheric deposition, ground water, streamflow, trends in water quality, and chemical loads to Irondequoit Bay

Irondequoit Creek drains 169 square miles in the eastern part of Monroe County. Over time, nutrients transported by Irondequoit Creek to Irondequoit Bay on Lake Ontario have contributed to the eutrophication of the bay. Sewage-treatment-plant effluent, a major source of nutrients to the creek and its tributaries, was eliminated from the basin in 1979 by diversion to a regional wastewater-treatment facility, but sediment and contaminants from nonpoint sources continue to enter the creek and Irondequoit Bay. This report, the fourth in a series of reports that present interpretive analyses of the hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since 1984, interprets data from four surface-water monitoring sites in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills, East Branch Allen Creek at Pittsford, Allen Creek near Rochester, and Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. It also interprets data from three sites in the the Genesee River basin—Oatka Creek at Garbutt, Honeoye Creek at Honeoye Falls, and Black Creek at Churchville—as well as the Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station, and also from a site on Northrup Creek at North Greece. The Northrup Creek site drains a 23.5-square-mile basin in western Monroe County, and provides information on surface-water quality in streams west of the Genesee River and on loads of nutrients delivered to Long Pond, a small eutrophic embayment of Lake Ontario. The report also includes water-level and water-quality data from nine observation wells in Ellison Park, and atmospheric-deposition data from a collection site at Mendon Ponds County Park. Average annual loads of some chemical constituents in atmospheric deposition for 1997–99 differed considerably from those for the long-term period 1984–96. Ammonia and potassium loads for 1997-99 were 144 and 118 percent greater, respectively, than for the previous period. Sodium and ammonia + organic nitrogen loads were 87 and 60 percent greater, respectively. Average annual loads of sulfate and orthophosphate for 1997-99 were 36 and 30 percent lower, respectively, than for the previous period. Loads of all nutrients deposited on the Irondequoit basin from atmospheric sources during 1997–99 greatly exceeded those transported by Irondequoit Creek. The ammonia load deposited on the basin was 139 times the load transported at Blossom Road (the most downstream site); the ammonia + organic nitrogen load was 6.3 times greater, orthophosphate 7.5 times greater, total phosphorus 1.3 times greater and nitrite + nitrate 1.5 times greater. Average yields of dissolved chloride and dissolved sulfate from atmospheric sources were much smaller than those transported by streamflow at Blossom Road.chloride was about 2 percent and sulfate about 8 percent of the amount transported. Trends in concentration of chemical constituents in surface water generally can be attributed to changes in land use, annual and seasonal variations in streamflow, and annual variations in the application of road salt to county highways and roads. Concentrations of several constituents in streams of the Irondequoit Creek basin showed statistically significant (α=0.05) trends from the beginning of their period of record through 1999. The constituent with the greatest number of significant trends was ammonia + organic nitrogen, with downward trends ranging from 4.1 to 5.6 percent per year at Allen Creek, Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road, and East Branch Allen Creek. Orthophosphate showed an upward trend of 4.1 percent per year at Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills (the most upstream site). Dissolved chloride showed upward trends at Railroad Mills, Allen Creek, and Blossom Road. No trends in volatile suspended solids were noted at any of the four Irondequoit basin sites. Northrup Creek showed significant downward trends in concentrations of ammonia + organic nitrogen (3.3 percent per year), total phosphorus (3.4 percent per year), and orthophosphate (5.5 percent per year), and an upward trend for dissolved sulfate (1.8 percent per year). The Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station showed downward trends of 6.1 percent per year for ammonia + organic nitrogen and 0.1 percent per year for chloride, and upward trends of 1.7 percent per year for total phosphorus and 6.6 percent per year for orthophosphate. Mean annual yields (mass per unit area) of most constituents at the Irondequoit Creek basin sites were similar to those noted for the previous report period (1994–96). East Branch Allen Creek showed lower yields of all constituents during 1997–99 than previously, even though runoff during 1997–99 was greater. These lower yields are attributed to the construction of an upstream detention basin on East Branch Allen Creek in 1995. Statistical analysis of long-term (greater than 12 years) streamflow records for unregulated streams in Monroe County indicated that annual mean flows for water years 1997–99 were in the normal range (75th to 25th percentile), although Allen Creek continues to show a significant downward trend in mean monthly streamflow during the 1984–99 water years.

New York↗
USGS1996

Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the 95-percent confidence level. These decreases can be attributed primarily to reductions in nonpoint nutrient and sediment loads, and may have been partially caused by implementation of best management practices on agricultural and silvicultural land. Flow-adjusted trends observed at the Appomattox, Pamunkey, and Mattaponi monitoring stations were more difficult to explain than those at the James and Rappahannock stations. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus increased 16 and 23 percent, respectively, at the Appomattox River monitoring station from July 1989 through June 1995. Total phosphorus concentration increased about 46 percent at the Pamunkey River monitoring station between July 1989 and June 1995. At the Mattaponi River monitoring station, decreases in dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen were offset by increases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen, resulting in no net change in total nitrogen concentration from October 1989 through June 1995.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1997

Water-quality trends for streams and reservoirs in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, 1983-95

Water-quality and streamflow monitoring data, collected from 1983 to 1995, were analyzed for 34 stream and reservoir sites in a seven-county region within the upper Neuse and upper Cape Fear River Basins. Early data (1983-88) were compiled from U.S. Geological Survey water-quality studies and from the ambient water-quality monitoring network of the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources. Analyses of major ions, nutrients, metals, trace elements, and synthetic organic compounds were compiled from samples collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1988 to 1995 as part of a continuing project to monitor the water quality of surface-water supplies in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, and from the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources ambient water-quality monitoring network. This report presents the results of analysis of consistently increasing or decreasing trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus species, suspended sediment, suspended solids, sodium, chloride, iron, manganese, zinc, and chlorophyll a from seasonal Kendall trend analysis on flow-adjusted concentrations for streams and concentrations in lakes. Total phosphorus concentrations also were tested for a step decrease in concentration (step trend) associated with the North Carolina phosphate-detergent ban of 1988. For some other constituents, insufficient data or values below laboratory detection limits precluded trend analysis. A regionwide decrease in total phosphorus, ranging from 25 to 81 percent, was observed that coincided with increased phosphorus removal efforts at municipal wastewater-treatment facilities in the region and the statewide phosphate-detergent ban. Most sites had stable or decreasing trends in nitrogen concentrations; however, increasing trends occurred in the Neuse River near Clayton and at Smithfield, both of which are downstream from the developing Raleigh-Durham area. Chlorophyll a concentrations have increased by 17 to 52 percent per year at monitored reservoirs, except at Cane Creek Reservoir and Lake Michie where there was no trend. No significant trends in suspended-sediment concentrations were observed. Long-term sodium concentrations were available for only a few sites. Of these, decreasing concentrations were observed in the Neuse River at Smithfield and Cane Creek near Orange Grove, and an increasing concentration was observed in University Lake. At most sites, concentrations of manganese, iron, and zinc were stable. Decreasing iron trends were observed in Little River and Cane Creek Reservoirs and Lake Michie. Cane Creek Reservoir also had a decreasing manganese trend. Seven sites, all downstream from wastewater-treatment facilities, were analyzed for zinc trends. A decreasing trend was observed in two of these--Knap of Reeds Creek and Little Lick Creek.

North Carolina↗
USGS2016

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2002

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2023

Long-term trends of local bird populations based on monitoring schemes: Are they suitable for justifying management measures?

Local biodiversity monitoring is important to assess the effects of global change, but also to evaluate the performance of landscape and wildlife protection, since large-scale assessments may buffer local fluctuations, rare species tend to be underrepresented, and management actions are usually implemented on local scales. We estimated population trends of 58 bird species using open-population N-mixture models based on count data in two localities in southeastern Spain, which have been collected according to a citizen science monitoring program (SACRE, Monitoring Common Breeding Birds in Spain) over 21 and 15 years, respectively. We performed different abundance models for each species and study area, accounting for imperfect detection of individuals in replicated counts. After selecting the best models for each species and study area, empirical Bayes methods were used for estimating abundances, which allowed us to calculate population growth rates ( λ ) and finally population trends. We also compared the two local population trends and related them with national and European trends, and species functional traits (phenological status, dietary, and habitat specialization characteristics). Our results showed increasing trends for most species, but a weak correlation between populations of the same species from both study areas. In general, local population trends were consistent with the trends observed at national and continental scales, although contrasting patterns exist for several species, mainly with increasing local trends and decreasing Spanish and European trends. Moreover, we found no evidence of a relationship between population trends and species traits. We conclude that using open-population N-mixture models is an appropriate method to estimate population trends, and that citizen science-based monitoring schemes can be a source of data for such analyses. This modeling approach can help managers to assess the effectiveness of their actions at the local level in the context of global change.

Journal of Ornithology↗
USGS2020

Low streamflow trends at human-impacted and reference basins in the United States

We present a continent-scale exploration of trends in annual 7-day low streamflows at 2482 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across the conterminous United States over the past 100, 75, and 50 years (1916–2015, 1941–2015 and 1966–2015). We used basin characteristics to identify subsets of study basins representative of reference basins with streamflow relatively free from human effects (n = 259), and predominantly agricultural basins (n = 78), regulated basins (n = 220), and urban basins (n = 121). Trend significance was computed using the Mann-Kendall test considering short- and long-term persistence. Lag-one autocorrelation tests of detrended 7-day low streamflows for all gage classes show that time-series independence is not an appropriate assumption for annual low streamflow data at many basins. Among all study gages, upward trends (wetter conditions) in 7-day low streamflows outnumbered downward trends (drier conditions) approximately 2–1 for the 75- and 100-year trend periods—50-year trends indicated roughly equal numbers of increases and decreases. Increases in 7-day low streamflow were consistently observed for all time periods throughout much of the northeastern quadrant of the conterminous U.S. including western New England and the Mid-Atlantic, the southeastern Great Lakes basin, northern Ohio River basin, and the Upper Mississippi River and eastern Missouri River basins. Decreases in 7-day low streamflow were consistently observed for all time periods at many gages in the southeastern U.S. and in the northwestern U.S. in much of Idaho and northwestern Washington. Overall, we observed greater percentages of statistically significant trends at gages with human-induced influences than at reference gages. Low-flow trends at agricultural gages were regionally consistent with trends at reference gages. Regulated basins had many statistically significant upward trends for all three time periods tested, which may be attributed in part to substantial increases in dam-related storage prior to 1970. Urban gages had the greatest percentage of significant decreases in 7-day low flows compared to all other gage classes even though most urban gages saw upward trends in mean annual flows. Urban gages also had the greatest percentage of significant increases in low flows second only to regulated gages, highlighting that urban development can increase or decrease low streamflows depending on the basin-specific development.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

As above, so below? A framework for integrating long-term water quantity trends reveals divergent patterns in groundwater and low streamflow across the United States

Climate, land-use, and disturbance drive long-term global trends in groundwater levels and streamflow. At large scales, these trends are typically considered separately, despite the well-established concept that groundwater and surface water comprise a single resource. Joint trend assessment at national scales is challenging because it requires pairing and aggregating data from spatially disparate streamflow and groundwater monitoring sites for which no established framework exists. Here, we evaluate alternative approaches for integrating groundwater and streamflow data to enable joint trend analysis—a critical step toward understanding how water-budget components respond concurrently and interactively to environmental drivers. Mann–Kendall trends were computed for individual groundwater (annual mean depth) and streamflow (annual low of 7 d averages) sites across the U.S over 21- (2000–2020), 31- (1990–2020), and 41-year (1980–2020) periods. Regional Kendall trends were calculated using five spatially contiguous and noncontiguous regional classifications for aggregation based on subsurface (e.g. aquifer, geology) and surface (e.g. watershed, landscape) characteristics. Site-level results revealed contrasting trends, with tendencies toward increasing low flows (wetting) and increasing groundwater depths (drying). Agreement between streamflow and groundwater trends increased with regional aggregation and longer timeframes, though persistent skew toward streamflow wetting and groundwater drying remained. Results varied by region and trend period, with notable consistencies: unified drying in the West/Southwest and wetting in the Upper Midwest. Directional mismatches in long-term trends were prominent in the High Plains and Mississippi Alluvial Plain, whereas near-term mismatches were most evident in the Northwest. Aggregation by hydrologic landscape regions (HLR) yielded the greatest agreement between groundwater and streamflow trends. These findings indicate that coupled responses may represent combined influences of climate, relief, and geology, as captured by HLR, more strongly than geography or geology alone. Integrated water availability assessments may benefit from a multi-characteristic classification framework to treat groundwater and surface water as a unified resource.

Environmental Research: Water↗
USGS2025

Evaluating detection of temporal trends in long-term freshwater fisheries data to inform future monitoring efforts

Objective Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program was implemented in 2006 to track changes in freshwater fish populations and communities. As part of an evaluation of the program, this study used a simulation framework to assess trend detection for fish abundance and biomass indices and how sampling intensity (number of samples per year) and frequency (number of years) can influence detection of these trends. Methods Using count and weight data from fall electrofishing samples collected between 2006 and 2021 from 21 lakes, trends were simulated for annual mean count and weight over a 10-year period that ranged from −70% to +200%. In all, simulations were performed for seven game fish species and three management-relevant groups (large nongame, nonnative, and prey species). For sampling intensity, data were simulated with a range of sample sizes, from 10 to 40 electrofishing transects or the maximum number available for a given lake. For sampling frequency, data were simulated for different sampling schedules that included sampling 1 year followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (4–5 years of sampling in a 10-year period), sampling two consecutive years followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (6–7 years of sampling in a 10-year period), and sampling the first 5 years only. Results Simulations based on weight and count data yielded similar results, but the effect of sampling frequency and sampling schedule varied by species, management group, and lake. Trend detection was lower and more variable when mean counts and weights of fish in electrofishing samples were low. Overall, at least a 60% increase or 40% decrease over a 10-year period was typically needed for trends in mean weight and count to be detected at least 80% of the time in at least half of the lakes. Increasing sampling intensity did not substantially improve trend detection for lower-magnitude changes, but reducing sample intensity to a minimum of 10 electrofishing transects per year would have a large negative effect on trend detection in almost all lakes. Detection of trends improved as the number of years sampled increased, but ideally, sampling should be spaced throughout the entire 10-year period to capture the full magnitude of change. Sampling every year generally resulted in better trend detection and for many species and groups was the only sampling schedule that resulted in all study lakes achieving the 80% target detection level. Of the alternative schedules considered, those involving 2 years of consecutive sampling outperformed those with only 1 year of sampling followed by a 1- or 2-year break. Conclusions Relatively large changes in mean count and weight were required to detect trends over a 10-year period, but there was no clear advantage of using count or weight data for monitoring purposes. Further, study results support the current sampling intensity, but trend detection is optimized at higher mean catch and weight values. Although sampling every year is ideal, an alternative schedule involving sampling two consecutive years with 1- or 2-year breaks could be considered in certain situations. These results will be important for informing future decisions regarding Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program and other monitoring initiatives.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management.↗