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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS1987

Trend analysis of monthly sulfur dioxide emissions in the conterminous United States, 1975-1984

Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease though the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. In addition, five regions of coherent sulfur dioxide emissions behavior are defined on the basis of seasonal occurrence of maximum and minimum emission loadings. A winter-summer, latitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions maxima, whereas an equinox-summer, longitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions minima.Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease through the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. Additional study results are discussed.

Atmospheric Environment↗
USGS2016

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year − 1 ) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year − 1 , not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2020

Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors

Aim Assessing long‐term shifts in faunal assemblages is important to understand the consequences of ongoing global environmental change. One approach to assess drivers of assemblage changes is to identify the traits associated with synchronous shifts in count trends among species. Our research identified traits influencing trends in 73 years of count data on migrating raptors recorded in the north‐eastern USA. Location Pennsylvania, USA. Time period 1946–2018. Major taxa studied Birds of prey/raptors. Methods Migrating raptors were counted during autumn, following a standardized protocol. We used a hierarchical breakpoint model to identify when count trends shifted and to assess the role of traits in driving these trends before and after the breakpoint. Specifically, we quantified the probability of the direction (PD) of an effect of body mass, habitat or dietary specialization, migratory behaviour and susceptibility to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) on count trends. Results We documented an assemblage‐wide mean shift in count trends of migrating raptors in 1974. In general, species that exhibited negative count trends before the breakpoint exhibited positive count trends afterwards. We found that traits associated with resource use (diet and habitat specialization) had high probabilities of affecting count trends, pre‐ and post‐breakpoint (> 90%). Moreover, the direction of their effects differed during both periods. Unexpectedly, other traits we evaluated, including DDT susceptibility, had relatively weaker associations with count trends. Main conclusions Trait‐based frameworks have promise for testing generalized assumptions about drivers of population trajectories. Historically, DDT was considered a key driver of changes in raptor population trends. However, our analysis suggests that other factors were also relevant. Moreover, the positive association between count trends and generalist behaviour depended on the temporal context. This result has implications for other settings where demographic trends can be linked to traits and help to identify drivers of biodiversity change.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2007

Streamflow trends in Wisconsin's driftless area

Trends in streamflow characteristics were analyzed for streams in southwestern Wisconsin's Driftless Area by using data at selected gaging stations. The analyses indicate that annual low flows have increased significantly, whereas annual flood peaks have decreased. The same trends were not observed for forested areas of northern Wisconsin. Streamflow trends for other streams in southeastern Wisconsin draining predominantly agricultural land were similar to trends for Driftless Area streams for annual low flows. The causes for the trends are not well understood nor are the effects. Trends in annual precipitation do not explain the observed trends in streamflow. Other studies have found that erosion rates decreased significantly in the Driftless Area, and have attributed this reduction to a change of agricultural practices, which increase infiltration, decrease flood peaks, and increase low flows.Trends in streamflow characteristics were analyzed for streams in southwestern Wisconsin's Driftless Area by using data at selected gaging stations. The analyses indicate that annual low flows have increased significantly, whereas annual flood peaks have decreased. The same trends were not observed for forested areas of northern Wisconsin. Streamflow trends for other streams in southeastern Wisconsin draining predominantly agricultural land were similar to trends for Driftless Area streams for annual low flows. The causes for the trends are not well understood nor are the effects. Trends in annual precipitation do not explain the observed trends in streamflow. Other studies have found that erosion rates decreased significantly in the Driftless Area, and have attributed this reduction to a change of agricultural practices, which increase infiltration, decrease flood peaks, and increase low flows.

Water Resources Bulletin↗
USGS2024

Trends in plant cover derived from vegetation plot data using ordinal zero-augmented beta regression

Questions Plant cover values in vegetation plot data are bounded between 0 and 1, and cover is typically recorded in discrete classes with non-equal intervals. Consequently, cover data are skewed and heteroskedastic, which hampers the application of conventional regression methods. Recently developed ordinal beta regression models consider these statistical difficulties. Our primary question is whether we can detect species trends in vegetation plot time series data with this modelling approach. A second question is whether trends in cover have additional value compared to trends in occurrence, which are easier to assess for practitioners. Location The Netherlands, Western Europe. Methods We used vegetation plot data collected from 10,000 fixed plots which were surveyed once every four years during 1999–2022. We used the ordinal zero-augmented beta regression (OZAB) model, a hierarchical model consisting of a logistic regression for presence and an ordinal beta regression for cover. We adapted the OZAB model for longitudinal data and produced estimates of cover and occurrence for each four-year period. Thereafter we assessed trends in cover and in occurrence across all periods. Results We found evidence of a trend in cover in 318 out of the 721 species (44%) with sufficient data. Most species showed similar directional trends in occurrence and percent cover. No trend in occurrence was detected for 64 species that had evidence of a trend in cover. Declining species had stronger relative changes in cover than in occurrence. Conclusions Our model enables researchers to detect trends in cover using longitudinal vegetation plot data. Cover trends often corroborated trends in occurrence, but we also regularly found trends in cover even in the absence of evidence for trends in occurrence. Our approach thus contributes to a more complete picture of (changes in) vegetation composition based on large monitoring data sets.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗
USGS1990

Genetic implications of regional and temporal trends in ore fluid geochemistry of Mississippi Valley-type deposits in the Ozark region

Fluids extracted from aqueous fluid inclusions in epigenetic gangue and ore minerals record the migration of huge volumes of highly saline fluids throughout the stratigraphic section of the Ozark region. The extracted fluids share many similarities regionally, but there are significant temporal differences which define two geochemically distinct end-member ore-forming fluids that we refer to as the Viburnum Trend main stage or Viburnum Trend type and the Tri-State type.Viburnum Trend-type fluids are enriched in potassium and are associated only with deposits close to the basal Lamotte Sandstone. The main-stage octahedral galena ore of the Viburnum Trend and much of the Old Lead Belt ore is thought to be derived from this type of ore fluid. Galena deposited by Viburnum Trend-type fluids contains less radiogenic lead than galena deposited by Tri-State-type fluids. Sulfides deposited by Viburnum Trend-type fluids also contain isotopically heavier sulfur and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, nickel, and silver.Tri-State-type fluids have a low potassium content when compared with Viburnum Trend-type fluids and are characteristic of deposits where ore-forming fluids migrated through large volumes of carbonate rock. These fluids are thought to have formed the ore deposits of the Tri-State, Northern Arkansas, and Central Missouri districts, the cubic galena-stage ore of the Viburnum Trend, and the many trace occurrences of sphalerite throughout the Ozark region. Galena deposited by Tri-State-type fluids has more radiogenic lead and the sulfides have isotopically lighter sulfur than sulfides deposited by Viburnum Trend-type fluids. A systematic south to north increase of potassium in the Tri-State-type fluids suggests that they migrated from a southerly source such as the Arkoma basin.Possible explanations for the origins of these two end-member fluids include: (1) a single parent brine evolved into two distinct fluids due to reactions with geochemically distinct aquifers during migration, (2) the two distinct fluids reflect normal fluid evolution within a single source basin of a bittern and of later halite dissolution, and (3) the Viburnum Trend and Tri-State-type brines migrated to southeast Missouri from two different source basins. Our data does not preclude any of these possibilities; however, the geochemical similarity of the Viburnum Trend end-member fluid to a bittern may be accounted for by water-rock modifications of the brine during migration. Other evidence strongly supports a southerly source for the ore-forming brines thus limiting possible sources for the Viburnum Trend-type fluid to the Arkoma and/or Black Warrior basins of the Ouachita foreland trough. Viburnum Trend-type fluid flow was probably funneled northward through basal sandstones within the Reelfoot rift and water-rock modifications occurring there may have resulted in its unique geochemistry.

Economic Geology↗
USGS2014

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

British Columbia;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2014

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2012

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexic↗
USGS2000

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Souris River, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba

The Souris River Basin is a 24,600-square-mile basin located in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. The Souris River Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group, formed in 1989 by the governments of Canada and the United States, is responsible for documenting trends in water quality in the Souris River and making recommendations for monitoring future water-quality conditions. This report presents results of a study conducted for the Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historic trends in water quality in the Souris River and to determine efficient sampling designs for monitoring future trends. U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada water-quality data collected during 1977-96 from four sites near the boundary crossings between Canada and the United States were included in the trend analysis. A parametric time-series model was developed for detecting trends in historic constituent concentration data. The model can be applied to constituents that have at least 90 percent of observations above detection limits of the analyses, which, for the Souris River, includes most major ions and nutrients and many trace elements. The model can detect complex nonmonotonic trends in concentration in the presence of complex interannual and seasonal variability in daily discharge. A key feature of the model is its ability to handle highly irregular sampling intervals. For example, the intervals between concentration measurements may be be as short as 10 days to as long as several months, and the number of samples in any given year can range from zero to 36. Results from the trend analysis for the Souris River indicated numerous trends in constituent concentration. The most significant trends at the two sites located near the upstream boundary crossing between Saskatchewan and North Dakota consisted of increases in concentrations of most major ions, dissolved boron, and dissolved arsenic during 1987-91 and decreases in concentrations of the same constituents during 1992-96. Significant trends at the two sites located near the downstream boundary crossing between North Dakota and Manitoba included increases in dissolved sodium, dissolved chloride, and total phosphorus during 1977-86, decreases in dissolved oxygen and dissolved boron and increases in total phosphorus and dissolved iron during 1987-91, and a decrease in total phosphorus during 1992-96. The time-series model also was used to determine the sensitivity of various sampling designs for monitoring future water-quality trends in the Souris River. It was determined that at least two samples per year are required in each of three seasons--March through June, July through October, and November through February--to obtain reasonable sensitivity for detecting trends in each season. In addition, substantial improvements occurred in sensitivity for detecting trends by adding a third sample for major ions and trace elements in March through June, adding a third sample for nutrients in July through October, and adding a third sample for nutrients, trace elements, and dissolved oxygen in November through February.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1996

Trends in nutrient inflows to the Gulf of Mexico from streams draining the conterminous United States, 1972-93

Trends are computed for nutrient inflows from 37 streams discharging into the Gulf of Mexico. The drainage areas of these streams represent about 86 percent of the drainage area to the Gulf from the conterminous United States. The period analyzed varies for each stream, but generally includes water years 1972-93. Stations included in this analysis primarily are part of the National Stream Quality Accounting Network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. Short-term trends for each station are indicated by LOWESS smooth lines superimposed on graphs of the relations between flow-adjusted residuals of concentration and time or load and time. Long-term trends were evaluated using Kendall's tau and the slope of the Kendall-Theil robust line. Long- term trends for each station are indicated by Kendall-Theil robust lines superimposed on the aforementioned graphs. Annual loads are estimated with regression analysis and corrected for log-transformation bias with the Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator. Trends in annual streamflow are presented to aid in the interpretation of trends in nutrient inflows. Statistically significant, long-term increases in flow-adjusted residual concentrations of total nitrogen were detected at 19 stations, decreases were detected at 7 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 11 stations. Long-term increases in total nitrogen load were detected at 3 stations, decreases were detected at 4 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 30 stations. Long-term increases in flow-adjusted residual concentrations of total phosphorus were detected at 7 stations, decreases were detected at 11 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 19 stations. Long-term increases in total phosphorus load were detected at 3 stations, decreases were detected at 12 stations, and no significant trends were detected at 22 stations. The median yields (mean annual load divided by drainage area) of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were significantly lower (p < 0.05) for the 13 streams in Texas than for the 24 streams east of the Sabine River (Texas-Louisiana boundary). Statistically significant trends in annual streamflow were detected at only four stations. However, annual streamflow influences trends in load, even when the streamflow trends are not statistically significant.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2005

Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2015

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

Trends in pesticide concentrations in 38 major rivers of the United States were evaluated in relation to use trends for 11 commonly occurring pesticide compounds. Pesticides monitored in water were analyzed for trends in concentration in three overlapping periods, 1992&ndash;2001, 1997&ndash;2006, and 2001&ndash;2010 to facilitate comparisons among sites with variable sample distributions over time and among pesticides with changes in use during different periods and durations. Concentration trends were analyzed using the SEAWAVE-Q model, which incorporates intra-annual variability in concentration and measures of long-term, mid-term, and short-term streamflow variability. Trends in agricultural use within each of the river basins were determined using interval-censored regression with high and low estimates of use. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2018

Effects of antecedent streamflow and sample timing on trend assessments of fish, invertebrate, and diatom communities

Detecting trends in biological attributes is central to many stream monitoring programs; however, understanding how natural variability in environmental factors affects trend results is not well understood. We evaluated the influence of antecedent streamflow and sample timing (covariates) on trend estimates for fish, invertebrate, and diatom taxa richness and biological condition from 2002 to 2012 at 51 sites distributed across the conterminous United States. A combination of linear regression and Kendall‐tau test for trends were used to evaluate covariate influence on trend estimates. Adjusting for covariates changed the magnitude of trend estimates in two‐thirds of cases on average by 21%, most often reducing the estimated magnitude of the trend. Additionally, covariates influenced the interpretation of over one‐third of trend estimates by either strengthening or weakening trends after adjustment. Our findings clearly indicate that antecedent streamflow and sample timing influences trend estimates and subsequent interpretation. Accounting for covariates during trend analysis will enhance stream monitoring programs by providing a better understanding and interpretation of estimated changes in biological endpoints at monitored sites. Failure to account for antecedent streamflow and sample timing may lead to mischaracterization of a trend and/or misunderstanding of potential causes.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2003

Applied geochemistry, geology and mineralogy of the northernmost Carlin trend, Nevada

Investigations in the northernmost Carlin trend were undertaken to advance understanding of the geochemical signatures and genesis of precious metal deposits in the trend . Two fundamental geologic relationships near the trend significantly affect regional geochemical distributions: a remarkably intact lower Paleozoic stratigraphic sequence of siliceous rocks in the upper plate of the middle Paleozoic Roberts Mountains thrust, and the widespread repetition of rocks high in the upper plate during late Paleozoic thrusting that thickens the cover above mineralized rock in the lower plate. A compilation of previously published chemical analyses of 440 stream sediment samples and 115 rocks from two 7 1/2-minute quadrangles, as well as new chemical analyses of approximately 1,000 drill core samples in a 1,514 m (4,970 ft) hole through the Rodeo Creek deposit were used to construct three-dimensional element distribution models that highlight metal zonation in the mineralized systems. The Rodeo Creek deposit comprises deep Ag base-metal ± Au-mineralized rock below the Roberts Mountains thrust and contains an unusually high Ag/Au ratio greater than 30. Stacked geochemical halos related to the deposit are confined to the lower plate of the Roberts Mountains thrust and include two horizons of Hg, Cu, and Zn anomalies-as much as 180 m above the deposit-that mostly result from mercurian sphalerite. Extremely subtle indications of mineralization in the upper plate of the Roberts Mountains thrust above the deposit include arsenopyrite overgrowths on small pyrite crystals in 50- to 75-μm-wide clay-carbonate veinlets that lack alteration halos, arsenical rims on small disseminated crystal of recrystallized diagenetic pyrite, and partial replacement of diagenetic pyrite by tennantite. Some of these minerals contain anomalously high Au. However, these As-(Au)-bearing rocks most likely represent another locus of largely untested mineralized rock rather than distal halos related to either the Rodeo Creek or the nearby Dee and Storm gold deposits. Application of micromineralogic techniques helped to identify mineral assemblages that are specific to mineralization and provided an empirical foundation for interpretations of geochemical halos in the Carlin trend . District-scale geochemical patterns of several elements in stream sediments and surface rocks coincide with the northernmost Carlin trend and can be used to explore for Carlin -type deposits. Concentrations of elevated As and Sb in stream sediments (as much as 54 ppm As) have northwest-elongate lobate patterns that clearly outline the trend across a width of approximately 4 km. Arsenic contents of exposed rocks (as much as 90 ppm As) strongly correlate with As contents of derivative stream sediments, and rock contents of Sb show a somewhat lesser but nonetheless strong and similar correspondence. Factor analysis of stream-sediment data shows that those factor scores that are correlated with As, Sb, Au, and Pb also are high along the trend and suggest that mineralized rocks may be present. Although As was not detected by scanning electron microscope-energy dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS) studies in heavy mineral concentrates of high-As stream sediments in the Carlin trend , X-ray absorption near-edge spectra (XANES) of selected light fractions of stream sediment samples indicate that Al-bearing phases, such as gibbsite, amorphous Al oxyhydroxides, or aluminosilicate clay minerals host most of the As(V). The best fit, visually and in terms of the lowest residual, was obtained by a model compound of As(V) sorbed to gibbsite. Thus, most As in stream sediments derived from altered rock within the Carlin trend apparently is contained in light fractions. The geochemical character of young, unconsolidated, postmineral deposits that cover mineralized rocks on the Carlin trend partly results from mineralized sources along the trend . Concentration of As in the Miocene Carlin Formation shows an exceptionally well developed progressive increase to about 30 ppm As as altered rock surrounding the trend is approached. Mineralized and/or altered rock fragments probably have been shed directly into the sedimentary basin of the Carlin Formation, and migration of As, now fixed as As(V), also may have occurred in the supergene environment after material was recycled out of the Carlin Formation and into present-day gulleys.

Nevada↗
USGS2020

Water-quality trends for selected sites and constituents in the international Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota and North Dakota, United States, and Manitoba, Canada, 1970–2017

A comprehensive study to evaluate water-quality trends, while considering natural hydroclimatic variability, in the Red River of the North Basin and assess water-quality conditions for the Red River of the North crossing the international boundary near Emerson, Manitoba, Canada (the binational site), was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and in collaboration with Manitoba Sustainable Development and Environment and Climate Change Canada. The international Red River of the North Basin encompasses 3 U.S. States (South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota) and 1 Canadian Province (Manitoba). Water quality in the Red River of the North Basin is of concern for both Federal governments and State and Provincial governments. Water-quality objectives have been previously established for selected dissolved ions and recently (2019) proposed for selected nutrients for the binational site. In the current (2020) study, water-quality data from State, Provincial, and Federal agencies in the United States and Canada for sites in the Red River of the North Basin from 1970 to 2017 were compiled and used for trend analysis. Trend analysis using a water-quality dataset from multiple agencies that collect water-quality data for various objectives presented multiple challenges. The trend-analysis approach was able to accommodate differences in water-quality data caused by field-collection and laboratory-analytical method differences, disparities in sampling frequencies, and spatial and temporal gaps in data. Most of these challenges were overcome by the statistical tool, R–QWTREND, which identifies trends in concentration unrelated to variability in streamflow. The integrated basin approach used in the current study, combined with comparing current data trends with historical trends, provided valuable insights into understanding how water quality is changing spatially (34 sites analyzed for a recent period, 2000–15) and temporally (5 sites analyzed for a 45-year historical period, 1970–2015) within the Red River of the North Basin. One of the most consistent spatial and temporal changes observed in the current study was increasing concentrations of sulfate among tributary and main-stem sites since 2000. For some sites, increases were detected starting as early as 1985. Total dissolved solids and chloride concentrations had spatial and temporal patterns like sulfate. Although R–QWTREND removes the variability in constituent concentration caused by natural streamflow variability, all variability in sulfate caused by hydroclimatic variability may not be captured because of changes in hydrologic pathways and changes in the contributions of sulfate from various natural sources. Nutrient concentrations demonstrated less consistent spatial and temporal changes than sulfate, and changes in nutrient concentrations were assumed to be more closely tied to human-induced rather than natural changes. Nitrate-plus-nitrite concentrations were mostly increasing in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, and for nitrate plus nitrite and total nitrogen, the Sheyenne River subbasin had consistent decreasing concentrations. Since 2000, total phosphorus has decreased in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, but total phosphorus concentration has increased for sites in the lower Red River of the North subbasin, and for some main-stem sites, concentrations have been increasing since 1985. Unlike sulfate, the pattern in historical trends for total phosphorus for the main-stem sites differed from tributary sites, indicating that human-induced changes affected tributaries and main-stem sites differently. The more detailed evaluation of flow-averaged water-quality conditions for the binational site provided an understanding of how loads have changed over time and what proportion of the year and season concentrations are expected to exceed water-quality objectives. In a basin with highly variable streamflow like the Red River of the North, the trend in flow-averaged load (assuming streamflow conditions are the same year after year) provided a robust measure of change over time. Increasing concentrations of sulfate, chloride, total dissolved solids, and total phosphorus since 1985 for the binational site resulted in longer periods of exceedance of water-quality objectives per year occurring over time. For total nitrogen, decreasing concentrations resulted in shorter periods of exceedance per year during 1980 to 2015, but concentrations were still expected to exceed the water-quality objective about half the year. Periods of when exceedances were likely to occur during the year were affected by the source and transport mechanisms of the constituent. Trend results from this effort identified how water quality has changed across the basin, and further investigation would help to identify causes for the trends observed here. Information from the current study provides a basis for future trend attribution studies, evaluation of water-quality objectives, and development of comprehensive strategies for reducing nutrients to desired targets and establishes a baseline for tracking future progress in the Red River of the North Basin.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Manitoba↗
USGS2002

Trend analysis of ground-water levels and spring discharge in the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada and California, 1960-2000

Ground-water level and discharge data from 1960 to 2000 were analyzed for the Yucca Mountain region of southern Nevada and eastern California. Included were water-level data from 37 wells and a fissure (Devils Hole) and discharge data from five springs and from a flowing well. Data were evaluated for variability and for upward, downward, or cyclic trends with an emphasis on the period 1992-2000. Potential factors causing trends in water levels and discharge include ground-water withdrawal, infiltration of precipitation, earthquakes, evapotranspiration, barometric pressure, and earth tides. Statistically significant trends in ground-water levels or spring discharge from 1992 to 2000 were upward at 12 water-level sites and downward at 14 water-level sites and 1 spring-discharge site. In general, the magnitude of the change in water level from 1992 to 2000 was small (less than 2 feet), except where influenced by pumping or local effects such as possible equilibration from well construction or diversion of nearby surface water. Seasonal trends are superimposed on some of the long-term (1992-2000) trends in water levels and discharge. Factors causing seasonal trends include barometric pressure, evapotranspiration, and pumping. The magnitude of seasonal change in water level can vary from as little as 0.05 foot in regional aquifers to greater than 5 feet in monitoring wells near large supply wells in the Amargosa Farms area. Three major episodes of earthquake activity affected water levels in wells in the Yucca Mountain region between 1992 and 2000: the Landers/Little Skull Mountain, Northridge, and Hector Mine earthquakes. The Landers/Little Skull Mountain earthquakes, in June 1992, had the largest observed effect on water levels and on discharge during the study period. Monthly measurements of wells in the study network show that earthquakes affected water levels from a few tenths of a foot to 3.5 feet. In the Ash Meadows area, water levels remained relatively stable from 1992 to 2000, with some water levels showing small rising trends and some declining slightly. Possible reasons for water-level fluctuations at sites AD-6 (Tracer Well 3), AM-5 (Devils Hole Well), and AM-4 (Devils Hole) from 1960 to 2000 include climate change, local and regional ground-water withdrawals, and tectonic activity. In Jackass Flats, water levels from 1992 to 2000 in six wells adjacent to Fortymile Wash displayed either small upward trends or no upward or downward trend. Comparison of trends in water levels from 1983 to 2000 for these six wells shows good correlations between all wells and suggests a common mechanism controlling water levels in the area. Of the likely controls on the system--precipitation or pumping in Jackass Flats--precipitation appears to be the predominant factor controlling water levels near Fortymile Wash. Water levels in the heavily pumped Amargosa Farms area declined from about 10 to 30 feet from 1964 to 2000. Water-level declines accelerated beginning in the early 1990's as pumping rates increased substantially. Pumping in the Amargosa Farms area may affect water levels in some wells as far away as 5-14 miles. The water level at site DV-3 (Travertine Point 1 Well) and discharge at site DV-2 (Navel Spring), both in the Death Valley hydrographic area, had downward trends from 1992 to 2000. The cause of these downward trends may be linked to earthquakes, pumping in the Amargosa Farms area, or both.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2003

Water resources of Monroe County, New York, water years 1997-99, with emphasis on water quality in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Atmospheric deposition, ground water, streamflow, trends in water quality, and chemical loads to Irondequoit Bay

Irondequoit Creek drains 169 square miles in the eastern part of Monroe County. Over time, nutrients transported by Irondequoit Creek to Irondequoit Bay on Lake Ontario have contributed to the eutrophication of the bay. Sewage-treatment-plant effluent, a major source of nutrients to the creek and its tributaries, was eliminated from the basin in 1979 by diversion to a regional wastewater-treatment facility, but sediment and contaminants from nonpoint sources continue to enter the creek and Irondequoit Bay. This report, the fourth in a series of reports that present interpretive analyses of the hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since 1984, interprets data from four surface-water monitoring sites in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills, East Branch Allen Creek at Pittsford, Allen Creek near Rochester, and Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. It also interprets data from three sites in the the Genesee River basin—Oatka Creek at Garbutt, Honeoye Creek at Honeoye Falls, and Black Creek at Churchville—as well as the Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station, and also from a site on Northrup Creek at North Greece. The Northrup Creek site drains a 23.5-square-mile basin in western Monroe County, and provides information on surface-water quality in streams west of the Genesee River and on loads of nutrients delivered to Long Pond, a small eutrophic embayment of Lake Ontario. The report also includes water-level and water-quality data from nine observation wells in Ellison Park, and atmospheric-deposition data from a collection site at Mendon Ponds County Park. Average annual loads of some chemical constituents in atmospheric deposition for 1997–99 differed considerably from those for the long-term period 1984–96. Ammonia and potassium loads for 1997-99 were 144 and 118 percent greater, respectively, than for the previous period. Sodium and ammonia + organic nitrogen loads were 87 and 60 percent greater, respectively. Average annual loads of sulfate and orthophosphate for 1997-99 were 36 and 30 percent lower, respectively, than for the previous period. Loads of all nutrients deposited on the Irondequoit basin from atmospheric sources during 1997–99 greatly exceeded those transported by Irondequoit Creek. The ammonia load deposited on the basin was 139 times the load transported at Blossom Road (the most downstream site); the ammonia + organic nitrogen load was 6.3 times greater, orthophosphate 7.5 times greater, total phosphorus 1.3 times greater and nitrite + nitrate 1.5 times greater. Average yields of dissolved chloride and dissolved sulfate from atmospheric sources were much smaller than those transported by streamflow at Blossom Road.chloride was about 2 percent and sulfate about 8 percent of the amount transported. Trends in concentration of chemical constituents in surface water generally can be attributed to changes in land use, annual and seasonal variations in streamflow, and annual variations in the application of road salt to county highways and roads. Concentrations of several constituents in streams of the Irondequoit Creek basin showed statistically significant (α=0.05) trends from the beginning of their period of record through 1999. The constituent with the greatest number of significant trends was ammonia + organic nitrogen, with downward trends ranging from 4.1 to 5.6 percent per year at Allen Creek, Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road, and East Branch Allen Creek. Orthophosphate showed an upward trend of 4.1 percent per year at Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills (the most upstream site). Dissolved chloride showed upward trends at Railroad Mills, Allen Creek, and Blossom Road. No trends in volatile suspended solids were noted at any of the four Irondequoit basin sites. Northrup Creek showed significant downward trends in concentrations of ammonia + organic nitrogen (3.3 percent per year), total phosphorus (3.4 percent per year), and orthophosphate (5.5 percent per year), and an upward trend for dissolved sulfate (1.8 percent per year). The Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station showed downward trends of 6.1 percent per year for ammonia + organic nitrogen and 0.1 percent per year for chloride, and upward trends of 1.7 percent per year for total phosphorus and 6.6 percent per year for orthophosphate. Mean annual yields (mass per unit area) of most constituents at the Irondequoit Creek basin sites were similar to those noted for the previous report period (1994–96). East Branch Allen Creek showed lower yields of all constituents during 1997–99 than previously, even though runoff during 1997–99 was greater. These lower yields are attributed to the construction of an upstream detention basin on East Branch Allen Creek in 1995. Statistical analysis of long-term (greater than 12 years) streamflow records for unregulated streams in Monroe County indicated that annual mean flows for water years 1997–99 were in the normal range (75th to 25th percentile), although Allen Creek continues to show a significant downward trend in mean monthly streamflow during the 1984–99 water years.

New York↗