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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments

Ecosystem services mapping and modeling has focused more on supply than demand, until recently. Whereas the potential provision of economic benefits from ecosystems to people is often quantified through ecological production functions, the use of and demand for ecosystem services has received less attention, as have the spatial flows of services from ecosystems to people. However, new modeling approaches that map and quantify service-specific sources (ecosystem capacity to provide a service), sinks (biophysical or anthropogenic features that deplete or alter service flows), users (user locations and level of demand), and spatial flows can provide a more complete understanding of ecosystem services. Through a case study in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, we quantify and differentiate between the theoretical or in situ provision of services, i.e., ecosystems’ capacity to supply services, and their actual provision when accounting for the location of beneficiaries and the spatial connections that mediate service flows between people and ecosystems. Our analysis includes five ecosystem services: carbon sequestration and storage, riverine flood regulation, sediment regulation for reservoirs, open space proximity, and scenic viewsheds. Each ecosystem service is characterized by different beneficiary groups and means of service flow. Using the ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) methodology we map service supply, demand, and flow, extending on simpler approaches used by past studies to map service provision and use. With the exception of the carbon sequestration service, regions that actually provided services to people, i.e., connected to beneficiaries via flow paths, amounted to 16-66% of those theoretically capable of supplying services, i.e., all ecosystems across the landscape. These results offer a more complete understanding of the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services and their effects, and may provide a sounder basis for economic valuation and policy applications than studies that consider only theoretical service provision and/or use.

Washington↗

The role of reserves and anthropogenic elements for functional connectivity and resilience of ephemeral habitats

Ecological reserves provide important wildlife habitat in many landscapes, and the functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for the persistence and resilience of spatially structured populations. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves and/or influencing management on non-reserves. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, USA, an intensively cultivated agricultural matrix, at four assumed, but ecologically realistic, anuran dispersal distances. We compared connectivity in the current landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes, and evaluated the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has maintained connectivity in the current landscape by replacing destroyed wetlands, but these pits likely provide suboptimal habitat. Also, because there are fewer total wetlands (i.e., wetlands and irrigation reuse pits) in the current landscape than the historical landscape, and because the distribution of current wetlands is less clustered than that of historical wetlands, larger and longer dispersing, sometimes nonnative species may be favored over smaller, shorter dispersing species of conservation concern. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves do not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they likely provide the highest quality anuran habitat. To improve future levels of resilience in this wetland habitat network, management could focus on continuing to improve the conservation status of non-reserve wetlands, restoring wetlands at spatial scales that promote movements of shorter dispersing species, and further scrutinizing irrigation reuse pit removal by considering effects on functional connectivity for anurans, an emblematic and threatened group of organisms. However, broader conservation plans will need to give consideration to other wetland-dependent species, incorporate invasive species management, and address additional challenges arising from global change in social-ecological systems like the Rainwater Basin.

Nebraska↗

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

Ecological Modelling↗

Food caching by a solitary large carnivore reveals importance of intermediate-sized prey

Pumas ( Puma concolor ) are solitary large carnivores that exhibit high energetic investments while hunting prey that often take multiple days to consume. Therefore, pumas should behave in a way to maximize their energetic gains, including using caching, which is a behavior used by many mammal species to preserve and store food or to conceal it from conspecifics and scavengers to limit their losses. Yet pumas do not always cache their kills. In order to understand caching behavior, we used variables associated with the kills such as prey mass, search time, climate, and habitat to test 20 ecological models (representing four a priori hypotheses: food perishability, resource pulse, consumption time, and kleptoparasitism deterrence) in an information-theoretic approach of model selection to explore factors related to the caching behavior. Models were run with information from tracked radio-collared pumas in California over a 2.5-year period and identified a total of 352 kills. Overall, we documented pumas caching 61.5% of their kills, including 71.6% of Black-tailed Deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ), their primary prey in the study area. The model with a quadratic effect of adjusted mass of prey on puma caching probability had all of the empirical support ( w = 1.00). Specifically, pumas were most likely to cache intermediate-sized prey, such as yearling and adult female deer, and also fed from cached kills for longer periods of time. Larger prey may be too large to easily cache, making it less energetically efficient—while small prey can often be consumed quickly enough to not require caching. This suggests that intermediate-sized prey may be the optimal size for caching, allowing a puma to feed for multiple days while not greatly increasing energetic output. The hypotheses we tested were not mutually exclusive and pumas caching their prey may occur for several reasons; nevertheless, our study demonstrated that pumas use caching to extend their foraging time and maximize energetic gains when preying on intermediate-sized prey.

California↗

An index of biological integrity for northern Mid-Atlantic Slope drainages

An index of biological integrity (IBI) was developed for streams in the Hudson, Delaware, and Susquehanna River drainages in the northeastern United States based on fish assemblage data from the Mohawk River drainage of New York. The original IBI, developed for streams in the U.S. Midwest, was modified to reflect the assemblage composition and structure present in Mid-Atlantic Slope drainages. We replaced several of the Midwestern IBI metrics and criteria scores because fishes common to the Midwest are absent from or poorly represented in the Northeast and because stream fish assemblages in the Northeast are less rich than those in the Midwest. For all replacement metrics we followed the ecology-based rationale used in the development of each of the metrics of the Midwestern IBI so that the basic theoretical underpinnings of the IBI remained unchanged. The validity of this modified IBI is demonstrated by examining the quality of streams in the Hudson, Delaware, and lower Susquehanna River basins. The relationships between the IBI and other indicators of environmental quality are examined using data on assemblages of fish and benthic macroinvertebrates and on chemical and physical stream characteristics obtained during 1993-2000 by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program in these three river basins. A principal components analysis (PCA) of chemical and physical variables from 27 sites resulted in an environmental quality gradient as the primary PCA axis (eigenvalue, 0.41 ). Principal components analysis site scores were significantly correlated with such benthic macroinvertebrate metrics as the percentage of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (Spearman R = -0.66, P < 0.001). Index of biological integrity scores for sites in these three river basins were significantly correlated with this environmental quality gradient (Spearman R = -0.78, P = 0.0001). The northern Mid-Atlantic Slope IBI appears to be sensitive to environmental degradation in all three of the river basins addressed in this study. Adjustment of metric scoring criteria may be warranted, depending on composition of fish species in streams in the study area and on the relative effort used in the collection of fish assemblage data.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

The relative influence of climate extremes and species richness on the temporal variability of bird communities

Understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecological stability is increasingly urgent as rapid species extinction continues. Though evidence of positive diversity–stability relationships is accumulating, empirical results are inconsistent, and effect sizes tend to be small, raising questions about relative contributions of intrinsic (i.e., species composition/interactions) and extrinsic (i.e., environmental) drivers of stability. Community stability may be more strongly influenced by environmental conditions than by community diversity in some contexts, yet little is known about the comparative importance of diversity and climate means, extremes, and variability in regulating stability. We used a half-century of continental-scale bird data to quantify avian community temporal variability (a metric often used to approximate ecological stability) at 1379 sites and compared relative effects of climatic variables and species richness. We found that extreme heat and extremely low precipitation at decadal scales are associated with high bird community variability and these climate variables outperformed species richness in terms of variance explained and magnitude of effect. This provides empirical support for the theoretical concept that, at a continental, decadal scale, environmental conditions can play a larger role than intrinsic factors in determining community stability. Our findings also increase understanding of how climate extremes cause diverse ecological responses.

Ecology↗

When parasites become prey: ecological and epidemiological significance of eating parasites

Recent efforts to include parasites in food webs have drawn attention to a previously ignored facet of foraging ecology: parasites commonly function as prey within ecosystems. Because of the high productivity of parasites, their unique nutritional composition and their pathogenicity in hosts, their consumption affects both food-web topology and disease risk in humans and wildlife. Here, we evaluate the ecological, evolutionary and epidemiological significance of feeding on parasites, including concomitant predation, grooming, predation on free-living stages and intraguild predation. Combining empirical data and theoretical models, we show that consumption of parasites is neither rare nor accidental, and that it can sharply affect parasite transmission and food web properties. Broader consideration of predation on parasites will enhance our understanding of disease control, food web structure and energy transfer, and the evolution of complex life cycles.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Carrying capacity of spatially distributed metapopulations

Carrying capacity is a key concept in ecology. A body of theory, based on the logistic equation, has extended predictions of carrying capacity to spatially distributed, dispersing populations. However, this theory has only recently been tested empirically. The experimental results disagree with some theoretical predictions of when they are extended to a population dispersing randomly in a two-patch system. However, they are consistent with a mechanistic model of consumption on an exploitable resource (consumer–resource model). We argue that carrying capacity, defined as the total equilibrium population, is not a fundamental property of ecological systems, at least in the context of spatial heterogeneity. Instead, it is an emergent property that depends on the population’s intrinsic growth and dispersal rates.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Review of ESA SYMP 7: A dynamic perspective on ecosystem restoration–establishing temporal connectivity at the intersection between paleoecology and restoration ecology

Landscape connectivity is vital not only spatially, but also temporally; as ecosystems change, it is important to be aware of past, present, and future variables that may impact ecosystem function and biodiversity. As climate and environments continue to change, choosing appropriate restoration targets is becoming more challenging. By considering the paleoecological and paleoenvironmental record for a given region, restoration practitioners are not only able to bear witness to that region’s dynamic history, but also potentially identify multiple, alternative natural ecosystem states. Indeed, one of the deliverables of conservation paleobiology, a field that applies paleontological data and methods to present-day conservation, is to inform restoration targets. Consideration of future change is equally important, and paleoecological and paleoclimatological data are essential for informing models that can help us understand how climate change is affecting species and ecosystems at different temporal scales. The symposium “A dynamic perspective on ecosystem restoration: Establishing temporal connectivity at the intersection between paleoecology and restoration ecology” gathered representatives from macroecology, paleoecology, and restoration ecology to share their perspectives on temporal connectivity and how consideration of an ecosystem’s past, present, and future can positively impact restoration and conservation. Some speakers approached the topic theoretically, while others considered it from a more practical and applied standpoint. The goals of the symposium were to build a stronger relationship among the subdisciplines, stimulate new ideas, and identify data and/or products that would be useful to share across subdisciplines.

Bulletin Ecological Society of America↗

Site fidelity as a maladaptive behavior in the Anthropocene

Site fidelity, or the behavior of returning to previously visited locations, has been observed across taxa and ecosystems. By developing familiarity with a particular location, site fidelity provides a range of benefits and is advantageous in stable or predictable environments. However, the Anthropocene is characterized by rates of environmental change that outpace the evolutionary history of extant taxa, which can result in site fidelity becoming maladaptive. Here we outline the theoretical underpinnings for maladaptive site fidelity and synthesize empirical research supporting its occurrence, and examine it in the context of a related concept, ecological traps, whereby organisms exhibit maladaptive behavior in habitat selection. We then discuss adaptive mechanisms that may enable species with site fidelity to continue to persist in the Anthropocene. With ongoing environmental change, researchers and practitioners should expect fidelity-induced ecological traps to become more common, and initiate projects to identify and understand their origins. Such knowledge will help conserve the widespread and ecologically important behavior of site fidelity.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

The effects of estradiol-17β on the sex reversal, survival, and growth of Red Shiner and its use in the development of YY individuals

Objective The Red Shiner Cyprinella lutrensis is one of the most prolific and ecologically destructive invasive fish species in the southwestern United States. The production and release of YY individuals as Trojan sex chromosome carriers can theoretically eradicate invasive fish populations by eventually eliminating phenotypic females. Methods The YY individuals are typically produced through hormonally induced sex reversals and selective breeding of subsequently feminized males. We tested three dosages of estradiol-17β (E2)-treated diets (50, 100, and 150 mg of E2 per kg of diet) administered to sexually immature Red Shiner for various durations to determine their effectiveness at feminizing Red Shiner cohorts. Survival, growth, and gonadal development were assessed for each treatment. Result All E2 treatments had minimal, if any, detrimental effects on the growth and gonadal development of Red Shiner. The 50-mg dosage lasting from 2 to 120 days posthatch achieved a 100% feminization rate while using the lowest amount of E2; therefore, this dosage and treatment interval are recommended when attempting Red Shiner feminization under these rearing conditions. Feminization of males allowed for the spawning of neofemales (F XY ) with wild-type males (M XY ), which resulted in the first putative YY Red Shiner. The YY verification crosses ( n = 20) resulted in predominately male offspring (189 males/191 offspring) except for (1) an intersex individual from an M YY × F XX cross with two previtellogenic oocytes in its testis and (2) a single female that may have resulted from an inbred cross between an XY male and a YY female or from an unknown autosomal or environmental effect on sexual phenotype. Conclusion More progeny tests with inbred and outbred crosses should be conducted to determine the prevalence of female offspring from YY individuals and how this may impact an eradication strategy featuring releases of YY Red Shiner.

North American Journal of Aquaculture↗

Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing

1. Stephens et al. (2005) argue for 'pluralism' in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information-theoretic (I-T) methods. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example. 2. I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. 3. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging. Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis (e.g. 'no difference') is not an efficient strategy for gaining knowledge. We think this single-hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. 4. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al. (2005) . 5. We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob(Hj| data). I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob(data |H0). 6. Synthesis and applications . I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

A generalization error bound of physics-informed neural networks for ecological diffusion models

Ecological diffusion equations (EDEs) are partial differential equations (PDEs) that model spatiotemporal dynamics, often applied to wildlife diseases. Derived from ecological mechanisms, EDEs are useful for forecasting, inference, and decision-making, such as guiding surveillance strategies for wildlife diseases. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a cutting-edge approach to approximating the solution of EDEs by constraining the loss function. PINNs have shown empirical success in forecasting and inference in wildlife disease problems. However, theoretical properties of PINNs in this context remain unexplored. In this paper, we derive a generalization error bound for PINNs applied to forward problems in EDEs, providing new crucial theoretical results for statistical analysis. Furthermore, we compare the performance of PINNs with commonly used numerical solvers, showing that PINNs achieve competitive accuracy while providing important modelling flexibility. Our results help connecting theory and application in EDE-based statistical models for ecological systems.

Stat↗

Spatial ecological processes and local factors predict the distribution and abundance of spawning by steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) across a complex riverscape

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ~15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.

Oregon↗

Does what go up also come down? Using a recruitment model to balance alewife nutrient import and export

Migrating adult Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus are a source of marine-derived nutrients on the East Coast of North America, importing nitrogen and phosphorus into freshwater habitats. Juvenile migrants subsequently transport freshwater-derived nutrients into the ocean. We developed a deterministic model to explore the theoretical nutrient dynamics of Alewife migrations at differing spawner abundances. Net nutrient balance was calculated relative to these abundances along the spawner–recruit curve. The ecological consequences of these subsidies in a particular watershed depend on the magnitude of adult escapement relative to the habitat’s carrying capacity for juveniles. At low escapement levels and assuming complete habitat access, the number of recruits produced per spawner was high and juvenile nutrient export dominated. At high escapement levels, fewer recruits were produced per spawner because recruitment is density dependent. As a result, adult nutrient import dominated. At varying levels of freshwater productivity and fisheries mortality for upstream spawners, this trend remained the same while the magnitude of the endpoints changed. Productivity level was the major determinant of export, while fisheries mortality had the strongest effect on adult import. The dynamics of this nutrient trade-off are important for managers to consider as a recovering population will likely shift from net export to net import as escapement increases. This transition will be sensitive to both harvest rates and to fish passage efficacy at dams and other barriers.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

Mechanisms of drift-feeding behavior in juvenile Chinook salmon and the role of inedible debris in a clear water Alaskan stream

Drift-feeding fish are challenged to discriminate between prey and similar-sized particles of debris, which are ubiquitous even in clear-water streams. Spending time and energy pursuing debris mistaken as prey could affect fish growth and the fitness potential of different foraging strategies. Our goal was to determine the extent to which debris influences drift-feeding fish in clear water under low-flow conditions when the distracting effect of debris should be at a minimum. We used high-definition video to measure the reactions of drift-feeding juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to natural debris and prey in situ in the Chena River, Alaska. Among all potential food items fish pursued, 52 % were captured and quickly expelled from the mouth, 39 % were visually inspected but not captured, and only 9 % were ingested. Foraging attempt rate was only moderately correlated with ingestion rate (Kendall’s τ = 0.55), raising concerns about the common use of foraging attempts as a presumed index of foraging success. The total time fish spent handling debris increased linearly with foraging attempt rate and ranged between 4 and 25 % of total foraging time among observed groups. Our results help motivate a revised theoretical view of drift feeding that emphasizes prey detection and discrimination, incorporating ideas from signal detection theory and the study of visual attention in cognitive ecology. We discuss how these ideas could lead to better explanations and predictions of the spatial behavior, prey selection, and energy intake of drift-feeding fish.

Alaska↗