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USGS2024

A journey to the center of the USGS National Strong-motion Project processing and beyond

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) has the primary U.S. government responsibility to acquire, process, and disseminate significant strong-motion earthquake ground motion records measured at surficial free-field stations, structures (buildings, dams, and bridges, and geotechnical arrays to the earthquake engineering community. As a result of the deployment of modern seismic instrumentation and growth of tools such as web-services, earthquake data from U.S. and international seismic networks are more accessible than ever. Our mission is to provide raw and processed strong-motion waveforms with PGA values greater than 0.1%g for M3.0 earthquakes and larger in California and M4.0 and larger within the conterminous US, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska. Datasets of interest to the engineering and geophysics communities, such as event sequences in areas of induced seismicity and significant global events, are also processed and posted at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) at strongmotioncenter.org when available through collaboration with the international strong-motion data community. Here we outline (1) the NSMP’s current workflow to acquire, process, and distribute data at CESMD; (2) our new endeavours and collaborations focusing on comparison and integration of waveform processing software, development of techniques for metadata quality checks before and after earthquakes, and construction of a dynamic site characterization repository; and (3) our topics for possible collaboration topics across the global strong-motion community.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Comparing subduction ground-motion models to observations for Cascadia

We evaluate Cascadia subduction ground-motion models (GMMs), considered for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update, by comparing observations to model predictions. The observations comprise regional recordings from intraslab earthquakes, including contributions from 2021 and 2022 events in southern Cascadia and global records from interface earthquakes. Since the 2018 NSHM update, new GMMs for Cascadia have been published by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-Subduction Project that require independent evaluation. In the regional intraslab comparisons, we highlight a characteristic frequency dependence for Cascadia data, with short periods having lower ground motions and longer periods being comparable to other subduction zones. We evaluate differences in northern and southern Cascadia and find that the NGA-Subduction GMMs developed using southern Cascadia data perform better in this region than the model that did not consider these data. We compare ground-motion variability in Cascadia with the NGA-Subduction model predictions and find differences at short periods ( T = 0.1 s) due to the use of global versus regional data in the development of these models. Moreover, the within-event component of aleatory variability from the GMMs overpredicts the standard deviation of Cascadia recordings at very short periods ( T < 0.05 s). Using global interface earthquakes as a proxy to evaluate the Cascadia GMMs, we find long-period overprediction from a simulation-based GMM and some of the empirical GMMs. When comparing recent observations, we find a similar misfit to GMMs and the 2010 and 2022 Ferndale earthquakes. Finally, we observe different basin amplification factors arising in different subsets of the data, which indicate that differences in basin factors between empirical GMMs could arise from the data selection choices by the developers. As part of evaluating the regional basin terms, we apply basin amplification factors from the magnitude 9 Cascadia earthquake simulations to the empirical GMMs for interface earthquakes. The comparisons presented in this study indicate that the NGA-Subduction GMMs for Cascadia perform well relative to observations and older subduction GMMs.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System performance during the Mw 7.0 offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The 5 December 2024 M w 7.0 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake was a challenging test of the U.S. West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system due to its offshore epicenter and limited near‐source station coverage. We analyzed real‐time performance of all components of the ShakeAlert system, including the seismic algorithms (earthquake point‐source integrated code [EPIC] and Finite‐fault rupture Detector [FinDer]), the geodetic algorithm (Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time–peak ground displacement [GFAST‐PGD]), and network telemetry during the event. EPIC created the first solution for this earthquake 15 s after origin time with an initial magnitude estimate of M 5.6 and location error of 10 km from the Advanced National Seismic System epicenter. An early spurious trigger from station CE.89101 fortuitously maintained location accuracy and, correspondingly, magnitude accuracy. FinDer contributed its first solution at 18 s with a location estimate closer to the seismic network and produced two distinct rupture geometries, leading to minor fluctuations in estimated intensity contours. GFAST‐PGD did not meet alerting thresholds but otherwise performed as expected. Network latencies were <2 s for most stations, supporting the rapid detection of this earthquake by the system. Roughly five million alerts were delivered to cell phone devices in California and Oregon during this event. This was also the first instance of a school district‐wide ShakeAlert‐powered system being activated. Comparisons to recorded seismograms demonstrate that the maximum warning times before potentially damaging shaking (intensity 6+) were in the range of 5–55 s. Although the ShakeAlert system provided accurate solutions and useful alert delivery, this earthquake raised awareness of potential issues within the system, including the need for improved offshore location estimates, a combination of solutions from ShakeAlert servers, and handling of spurious triggers.

California↗
USGS2024

Effects of stochastically-simulated near-fault ground motions on soil liquefaction

The scarcity of historically recorded near-fault ground motions poses a challenge to systematically understanding the influence of near-fault effects on various types of seismic demands for engineering purposes. In particular, the current state of knowledge of the influence of ground-shaking intensity on soil liquefaction and its consequences does not specifically account for the effects of near-fault ground motion characteristics. In this study, the influence of near-fault ground motions on liquefaction triggering and lateral spreading are investigated using non-linear modeling of a hypothetical liquefiable soil column in the finite-element computational platform OpenSees subjected to simulated ground motion time series that represent strong earthquake shaking in the near field. The simulated ground motion time series and resulting datasets are based on a parametric stochastic model and are developed for a range of source and path parameters to represent a realistic variability of ground motion characteristics. Dependencies between ground motion intensity measures (IMs) and liquefaction demand parameters are investigated for near-fault pulse and nonpulse-like ground motion sets. Evolutionary IMs, such as cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) and the time-varying magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration (PGAM), are considered in developing liquefaction triggering probability density functions. Post-liquefaction triggering responses such as lateral spreading displacements are examined in relation to PGA M and CAV. The ground motion simulations are validated by comparing their liquefaction-capacity PGA M fragilities and post-triggering CAV vulnerability relationships to historical records from the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California, USA. Finally, a path forward for future studies that includes finding systematic differences in the IM-liquefaction demand relationships between near-fault and far-field stochastic ground motion sets is outlined.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Timescales of cumulate mobilization and mixing for the 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa, Island of Hawai‘i

The deadly 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa’s lower Southwest Rift Zone (Island of Hawai‘i) included a M7.9 earthquake and associated tsunami and landslides, demonstrating the severe hazards posed by Earth’s largest active subaerial volcano. To better understand the relationship between intense seismic activity, dike emplacement, magma storage, transport histories, and mobilization of olivine cumulates at Mauna Loa, we examine compositional zoning of olivine in the 1868 lava flows. Samples range from basalt (< 10% olivine) to picrite (30–40% olivine). The olivine cargo is heterogeneous (Fo 78.2–89.2 ; forsterite = [Mg/(Mg + Fe) × 100]) but dominated by ~ Fo 89 cores that lie above the Fe-Mg equilibrium field of host glasses. Crystal rims < Fo 80 are due to post-eruptive modification in slow cooling lava flows. Minor element compositions fall within the range of other Mauna Loa olivine erupted in the past 200 years. Olivine crystals exhibit both normal and complex Fo zoning patterns that yield timescales of diffusive re-equilibration that range from 3 to 258 days, with 72% of crystals recording 71 days or less. These timescales correspond to magmatic priming of the summit reservoir system ~ 2 months prior to the eruption and the M7.9 earthquake likely facilitated the transport of the crystal-rich summit-derived magmas downrift shortly prior to eruption. If the recently proposed faster Fe-Mg diffusion coefficient is used, timescales instead range from < 1 day to 25 days, with most recording 1 week or less. In this scenario, most of the olivine zoning would have to have been generated after the M7.9 earthquake perturbed the system.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Earthquake ground-motion model adjustments for the San Francisco Bay area

We develop adjustments to ergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs) to improve their performance in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA). GMMs are widely used in hazard assessments to estimate characteristics of ground shaking based on known properties of the source, path, and site. Such models are often developed using datasets containing records from various regions, resulting in models that represent median ground‐motion behavior, which may not adequately represent ground motions within subregions. This is true for the SFBA, where ground motions attenuate more rapidly with distance than in many other parts of California that dominate GMM databases. To support improved seismic hazard estimates in the SFBA, we calculate regional constants and anelastic attenuation coefficient adjustments relative to two commonly used ergodic GMMs: BSSA14 ( Boore et al. , 2014 ) and ASK14 ( Abrahamson et al. , 2014 ). These adjustments are obtained for a suite of ground‐motion intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration at oscillator periods ranging from 0.075 to 10 s) using mixed‐effects regression. Use of the regionally adjusted models reduces the overall bias by up to 0.5 natural log units for BSSA14 and up to 0.6 natural log units for ASK14. We demonstrate one application of our attenuation adjustments and their implications in an earthquake early warning case study of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The predicted extent of shaking using the adjusted models better matches observed shaking at large source‐to‐site distances, especially for lower shaking intensities, thus potentially reducing overalerting. We encourage the use of our model adjustments when ergodic models are considered for seismic hazard studies in the SFBA.

California↗
USGS2026

The Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA) acoustic and sedimentary archive of Wasatch Front earthquakes

As the largest low-relief basin in the western United States, the Great Salt Lake offers an opportunity to explore acoustic and sedimentary archives of earthquake ruptures in a shallow terminal basin. Here, we use subbottom compressed high intensity radiated pulse (Chirp) profiles and sedimentary cores to address questions related to how Great Salt Lake sediments respond to surface rupture and earthquake shaking and whether the lake is sensitive to both Great Salt Lake fault (GSLF) and Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) earthquakes. Chirp profiles reveal laterally continuous seismic stratigraphy with vertically displaced strata, onlap surfaces, and growth stratigraphy produced by GSLF surface ruptures. We identify and date two ruptures on the Fremont Island section and three on the Antelope Island section; temporal overlap of these ruptures supports synchronous rupture of both sections. Combined with previous data, our results yield a record of four Holocene surface-rupturing (M W 6.9−7.3) earthquakes on the GSLF with a mean recurrence of ∼3.2 k.y. Sediment cores include ≤41-cm-thick, massive, homogeneous to normally graded disturbance beds that interrupt laminated bioclastic sediment. Disturbance bed correlations yield four lacustrine earthquake deposits since ca. 1.7 ka; the youngest possibly records the most recent GSLF surface rupture whereas older deposits were likely produced by WFZ earthquakes. Modeled historical earthquakes yield a Great Salt Lake sediment disturbance shaking threshold of MMI ∼VI, controlled in part by the lake-bottom expression of the GSLF scarp. Our integration of primary (fault-related) and secondary (shaking-related) earthquake evidence improves our understanding of sediment disturbance processes and the archival potential of low-relief lake basins.

Utah↗
USGS2025

International data gaps at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data

The Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) is utilized by seismologists, engineers, and disaster management professionals in the US and has historically achieved and distributed waveforms from across the globe for significant earthquakes. The increased access to the waveforms via Web API (Application Programming Interface) offers a unique opportunity to provide the community complete datasets, sampling a variety of tectonic environments and geologic conditions, increasing the number of available ground motion records for use in ground motion models (GMMs) and improving the accuracy of earthquake engineering evaluations. The objective of this study is to programmatically identify gaps in global event data from the past decade and backfill missing data gaps at CESMD. We first compare the CESMD catalog with the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog identifying regions and time periods where strong-motion data is limited or inadequate. To backfill datasets at CESMD for significant events, we pinpoint regions and time intervals that lack information, creating a list of events for which we’d like to obtain data. An important facet of this work is identifying the source of data and metadata across earthquake repositories around the world and integrating these data repositories into our current strong-motion data processing workflow. In parallel with these newly processed datasets, we are developing a script to produce data origination citations to include provenance and attribution information to associate with respective datasets at CESMD. We showcase our methodology for identifying and filling data gaps at CESMD using three case studies (the 2018 Anchorage Alaska earthquake sequence, seismicity associated with the 2018 Hawaiian Kilauea volcano eruption, and several earthquakes in Turkey) and then outline our strategy to apply our data gap backfilling methods on an international scale.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

The new self-anchored suspension (SAS) San Francisco Bay Bridge- Its response to a small earthquake

This paper presents a summary of previously published work (Celebi 2023) related to the new Self-Anchored Suspension (SAS) bridge that went into service within the last decade as a replacement for the older truss bridge spanning between Yerba Buena Island and Oakland, California, within the San Francisco Bay Area. During the October 19, 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, which occurred ~100 km south of the Bay Bridge, a section of the upper deck of the truss bridge fell onto the lower deck – thus closing this important lifeline between San Francisco and Oakland. The SAS is unique, self-anchored, and suspended by a single tower that is pivotal in trafficking the cable and hanger system to support the decks. The SAS bridge is extensively instrumented by the California Geological Survey’s Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP). There are approximately 85 channels of accelerometers in the seismic monitoring system that recorded the October 14, 2019 Mw4.6 Pleasant Hill earthquake. The data allow a complex but identifiable coupled response of the deck, tower, and cable system. Both acceleration and displacement time-history data are used to extract significant frequencies using system identification methods, including spectral analyses. Results are compared to those from finite-element-model (FEM) analyses carried out during the design and analysis process of the bridge in 2002 (Nader et al. 2002). There are differences between FEM analyses results and those from the low amplitude shaking caused by a seismic event. An apparent frequency (period) of the SAS bridge is assessed (approximately 5.2 seconds). In a plot of deck length versus period, there is an almost linear relationship with periods of other regular suspension bridges, such as the Golden Gate Bridge and the Carquinez Bridge, both in the San Francisco Bay.

California↗
USGS1995

Streamflow, ground-water recharge and discharge, and characteristics of surficial deposits in Buzzards Bay Basin, southeastern Massachusetts

Streamflow measurements at 14 low-flow partial-record stations and two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations were related to concurrent streamflows at six long-term streamflow-gaging stations to estimate streamflows at selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent for water years 1967-91. At low flows, stream discharge per square mile generally increased with increasing percentage of subbasin underlain by stratified-drift deposits. At the 70-, 90-, and 99-percent flow durations, subbasins underlain primarily by stratified-drift deposits had stream discharges per square mile at least 2, 4, and 8 times greater, respectively, than subbasins underlain primarily by till and bedrock deposits. Streamflow measured three times at the Paskamanset River showed that streamflows downstream of municipal pumped wells increased at a lower rate per unit drainage area than streamflows upstream of the pumped wells. When pumpage from wells near the river was added to measured streamflow at the most downstream station, the sum was similar to the potential streamflow at the station if its streamflow per unit area was the same as that upstream from the pumped wells. Mean ground-water recharge and discharge rates were computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge during water years 1967-91 for six streamflow-gaging stations in southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Estimates of mean ground-water recharge were 19.7 to 22.6 inches per year for stations with drainage areas primarily underlain by till and bedrock deposits, and 23.8 to 25.2 inches per year for stations with drainage areas primarily underlain by stratified-drift deposits. During drought years, annual ground-water recharge can be less than 50 percent of the mean ground-water recharge rate for water years 1967-91. Estimates of ground-water discharge rates generally were 1 to 4 inches per year less than estimates of ground-water recharge rates. Ground-water discharge-duration curves were calculated from hydrograph separation of streamflow records at the six continuous streamflow-gaging stations for water years 1967-91. When streamflows were less than the median streamflow (50-percent duration), ground-water discharges averaged 85.7 percent of the total streamflow at the six streamflow-gaging stations. Ground-water discharges were estimated at the 14 low-flow partial-record stations and two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations by multiplying streamflows at the selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent for water years 1967-91 by 85.7 percent. Data on surficial deposits in the basin were obtained by drilling 10 wells, by conducting 12 seismic-refraction surveys, and by collecting well log data for 313 wells from consulting firms and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management. These data indicated that a few minor corrections could be made to existing saturated thickness maps for stratified-drift deposits in Buzzards Bay Basin. Few well logs were detailed enough to estimate transmissivities; thus existing transmissivity maps were not updated for stratified-drift deposits in the basin.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Prediction of regional broadband strong ground motions using a teleseismic source model of the 18 April 2014 Mw 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, earthquake

To estimate predicted ground motion from a teleseismic slip model, we use a low‐ and high‐frequency hybrid method to simulate the regional, strong ground motions observed following the 18 April 2014 moment magnitude ( ⁠M w ⁠ ) 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, earthquake. To generate the regional ground motion at low frequencies (<1 Hz), a teleseismically derived, finite‐fault, kinematic model is used to define the earthquake source, taking into account slip‐model variations identified with a parameter sampling approach that considers possible errors in the fault geometry, the hypocenter depth, and the rupture velocity. A 3D crustal model is used to calculate the low‐frequency ground motions using a finite‐element calculation that includes topography and considers variations in the source model to estimate the uncertainty in the calculations. High frequencies (>1 Hz) are added using a 1D full‐wave propagation code that estimates uncertainties by considering multiple random distributions of slip with different spatial correlation lengths. The synthetic, broadband (0.05–10.0 Hz) ground motions are obtained by combining the low‐ and high‐frequency portions match filtered at 1 Hz. These synthetic ground motions are compared with the regional observations using velocity records, peak ground acceleration, and medians of the orientation‐independent response spectra of the horizontal components (RotD50) calculated at periods of 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 7.5, and 10.0 s. The results indicate that ground motions estimated at these periods using our hybrid approach based primarily on a teleseismically derived source model are comparable to the values observed for the 2014 Papanoa earthquake at regional distances. The approach could be used to estimate strong‐motion spectral levels expected for regions with limited local and regional recordings and could also fill in magnitude or distance gaps in ground‐motion prediction relations utilized in the assessment of seismic hazard.

Papanoa↗
USGS2024

Fairweather transform boundary Oligocene to present orogenesis: Fairweather Range vertical extrusion and rotation of the Yakutat microplate at ca. 3 Ma

Oblique-slip along transform fault boundaries is often partitioned between a strike-slip system and thrust faults that accommodate contraction. However, topography along the Yakutat-North American transform (Fairweather fault), is asymmetric with low-terrain above active thrusts on the western, Yakutat side of the transform and high topography on the continental side with peaks >4500 m (Mount Fairweather: 4671 m) to the west of the Border Ranges fault, limited recorded earthquakes >M4, and no apparent reverse faults to generate the highest terrain. In this study we compile, for the first time, published U-Pb zircon, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and K-Ar (hornblende, muscovite, and biotite) and U-Th/He and fission-track (zircon and apatite) bedrock ages (109) from 75 samples to investigate the exhumation history of the Fairweather Range region, complemented by a published detrital sample (ZFT and AFT) and 13 new 40 Ar/ 39 Ar (hornblende, biotite, and K-feldspar) ages on 9 bedrock samples from both sides of the Fairweather fault. Additionally, we examined published seismicity and geodetic data of the Fairweather region and assessed if plate paleo-vectors correlate with the cooling history of the Fairweather Range. Cooling age, seismic, and block-motion patterns indicate the Fairweather Range has been vertically extruded between the Fairweather and the Border Ranges faults as a coherent block since ca. 25 Ma. The pre-6 Ma Pacific plate motion (N30°W) aligns with the N33°W strike of the Fairweather Fault whereas a hypothetical pre-6 Ma Yakutat microplate paleo-vector of (N39°W) does not: indicating a post-6 Ma timing for Yakutat microplate counter-clockwise rotation (9°). We infer that rotation and impingement of the Yakutat microplate along the Fairweather fault at ca. 3 Ma led to the development of the Fairweather restraining bend and increased cooling rates. The resultant thickened Fairweather welt and the ∼30 km thick southeast end of the Yakutat microplate compounded double-indenter tectonics into Alaska's southeast convergent corner

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2025

Characterization and validation of tidally calibrated strains from the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory Strainmeter Array (TABOO-NFO-STAR)

Six horizontal borehole tensor strainmeters (TSM1-6) installed from Fall 2021 to Spring 2022 comprise the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory Strainmeter Array (STAR), providing an unprecedented opportunity to investigate seismic and aseismic deformation from hazardous high- and low-angle normal faults in Italy. Prior to use in tectonic applications, they require in-situ calibration and correction for non-tectonic signals. We tidally calibrate the instruments, characterize the calibration uncertainty, and test the results against environmental and earthquake signals originating from local to teleseismic distances. The STAR sites demonstrably deviate from assumptions common to the standard manufacturer's calibrations, including negative areal coupling at TSM3-6. While the tidally calibrated strains have ~3-56% uncertainty, the calibrated dynamic strains show interstation precision and accuracy to nanostrain levels, and static coseismic offsets in the array footprint are within uncertainty. TSM3 records a complex series of strains that may arise from dynamically triggered near-borehole fracture slip and fluid flow that does not appear to affect its sensitivity to lower strain rate deformation. Future calibration improvement may be afforded with longer stable timeseries, particularly for TSM4. Overall, our analyses demonstrate expanded geodetic capability for detecting deformation in the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory.

Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory↗
USGS2024

Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, performed record extensions on groundwater levels at select wells using the Maintenance of Variance Extension type 1 (MOVE.1) method. The groundwater levels estimated from these record extensions were used to compute monthly percentiles to improve future determinations of a groundwater index. In Massachusetts, 27 of 29 short-record study wells with continuous groundwater levels between 0.8 and 8.1 years were suitable for record extensions; 37 long-record index wells were used to extend the groundwater level records at the study wells. The index well selected to pair with a study well was chosen based on Pearson correlation coefficient values; cross-correlation between the two wells; geologic and topographic similarity; and smallest distance spanning the wells. Each study well and its corresponding index well have 1 or more years of concurrent, overlapping data; a Pearson correlation coefficient that exceeded a threshold value of 0.8; and a similar aquifer type and hydrologic characteristics. Of the 29 study wells, 2 showed poor correlations with all index wells and were not considered for record extensions. Performance metrics used to assess the accuracy of the MOVE.1 models indicated that most models provided reasonable estimates of groundwater levels. Root mean square error values ranged from 0.097 to 2.292 feet, with a median of 0.536 foot. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values ranged from 0.623 to 0.996, with a median value of 0.759. Generally, study wells in close geographical proximity to their index well resulted in stronger model performance. The average length of groundwater level records was extended by 14.1 years to a new average of 18.1 years. The estimated groundwater level records from the MOVE.1 models resulted in an increase in the range of highest and lowest groundwater levels at 23 of 27 wells. The increase in range of groundwater levels was between 0.08 to 7.95 feet. Monthly percentiles for State drought indices were computed from the estimated MOVE.1 records and observed records through December 31, 2021. Percentiles computed from estimated records show an average groundwater level about 1.0 foot lower than observed data at the 2d percentile and 0.1 foot lower at the 30th percentile.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Exploring the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault and a normal fault under the Salton Sea

We investigate the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) and a proximal normal fault (NF) beneath the Salton Sea in southern California. The NF, positioned near the SSAF terminus at Bombay Beach, exhibits 11–15 displacement events across 14 stratigraphic sequences, with a range of 0.2–1.4 m of vertical offset since ∼2–3 ka. Notably, four of these events may align temporally with SSAF earthquakes, raising questions about the possible interplay between the two faults. Utilizing dynamic rupture models, we analyze the coseismic interactions between the SSAF and NF, addressing under what conditions the SSAF induces slip on the NF. Our findings reveal that a suite of SSAF ruptures, particularly those propagating from north to south, can trigger slip on the normal fault and replicate observed vertical offsets. If the SSAF extends beneath the Salton Sea, earthquakes originating south of the NF intersection are less likely to trigger normal fault slip, although we cannot exclude this possibility. Some SSAF ruptures do not trigger discernible slip on the NF, rendering such events undetectable in the stratigraphic record. Our research contributes toward discussions regarding the seismic hazard in southern California, shedding light on the interplay between the SSAF and NF.

California↗
USGS2025

ARCHI: A new R package for automated imputation of regionally correlated hydrologic records

Missing data in hydrological records can limit resource assessment, process understanding, and predictive modeling. Here, we present ARCHI (Automated Regional Correlation Analysis for Hydrologic Record Imputation), a new, open-source software package in R designed to aggregate, impute, cluster, and visualize regionally correlated hydrologic records. ARCHI imputes missing data in “target” records by linear regression using more complete “reference” records as predictors. Automated imputation is implemented using a novel, iterative algorithm that allows each site to be considered a target or reference for regression, growing the pool of complete references with each imputed record until viable gap-filling ceases. Users can limit artifacts from spurious correlations by specifying model-acceptance criteria and applying geospatial, correlation, and group-based filters to control reference selection. ARCHI provides additional functions for visualizing results, clustering records with similar correlation structures, evaluating holdout data, and interactive parameterization with an accessible and intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). This methods brief provides an overview of the ARCHI package, modeling guidelines, and benchmarking on two regional groundwater-level datasets from the Central Valley, CA and Long Island, NY. We evaluate ARCHI alongside widely used multivariate imputation software to highlight and contextualize its computational efficiency, imputation accuracy, and model transparency when applied to large, groundwater-level datasets.

California, New York↗