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Prioritizing science efforts to inform decision making on public lands

Public land management agencies in the US are committed to using science-informed decision making, but there has been little research on the types and topics of science that managers need most to inform their decisions. We used the National Environmental Policy Act to identify four types of science information needed for making decisions relevant to public lands: (1) data on resources of concern, (2) scientific studies relevant to potential effects of proposed actions, (3) methods for quantifying potential effects of proposed actions, and (4) effective mitigation measures. We then used this framework to analyze 70 Environmental Assessments completed by the Bureau of Land Management in Colorado. Commonly proposed actions were oil and gas development, livestock grazing, land transactions, and recreation. Commonly analyzed resources included terrestrial wildlife, protected birds, vegetation, and soils. Focusing research efforts on the intersection of these resources and actions, and on developing and evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation measures to protect these resources, could strengthen the science foundation for public lands decision making.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Blowing in the wind: Anemochory in blackbrush habitat of South Texas

Wind dispersal has the potential to carry seeds long-distances and could inform the management and restoration of natural vegetation along the U.S.-Mexico Border. Plant species with the potential to disperse seeds in arid landscapes fragmented by border barrier infrastructure include foundational native, invasive, and federally endangered plant species. Wind dispersal traps constructed of cloth were set facing into the prevailing wind direction (SE) to characterize the role of wind in transporting soil particles, pebbles, plant debris, and seeds in blackbrush habitat during maximum events of wind speed (km per hour), and precipitation (cm). Shrubs, native grasses, the invasive Pennisetum ciliare (buffelgrass), soil particles, and pebbles dispersed in the wind, especially during maximum wind and/or precipitation events. Natural blackbrush areas supported the wind dispersal of twelve native species including grasses and woody shrubs. Sites disturbed by border infrastructure (barrier, roads, waterways) had higher seed numbers of invasive species such as P. ciliare captured in the wind traps. While modifications in passages through waterways and other structures have been proposed to improve the movement of organisms influenced by the barrier, the restoration of native plant species in damaged areas might further aid in the maintenance of blackbrush ecosystems by reducing invasive plant species dispersal into natural habitats.

Texas

Ground-water resources of Riverton irrigation project area, Wyoming, with a section on chemical quality of ground water

The Riverton irrigation project area is in the northwestern part of the Wind River basin in west-central Wyoming. Because the annual precipitation is only about 9 inches, agriculture, which is the principal occupation in the area, is dependent upon irrigation. Irrigation by surface-water diversion was begum is 1906; water is now supplied to 77,716 acres and irrigation has been proposed for an additional 31,344 acres. This study of the geology and ground-water resources of the Riverton irrigation project, of adjacent irrigated land, and of nearby land proposed for irrigation was begun during the summer of 1948 and was completed in 1951. The purpose of the investigation was to evaluate the ground-water resources of the area and to study the factors that should be considered in the solution of drainage and erosional problems within the area. The Riverton irrigation project area is characterized by flat to gently sloping stream terraces, which are flanked by a combination of badlands, pediment slopes, and broad valleys. These features were formed by long-continued erosion in an arid climate of the essentially horizontal, poorly consolidated beds of the Wind River formation. The principal streams of the area flow south-eastward. Wind River and Fivemile Creek are perennial streams and the others are intermittent. Ground-water discharge and irrigation return flow have created a major problem in erosion control along Fivemile Creek. Similar conditions might develop along Muddy and lower Cottonwood Creeks when land in their drainage basins is irrigated. The bedrock exposed in the area ranges in age from Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary (middle Eocene). The Wind River formation of early and middle Eocene age forms the uppermost bedrock formation in the greater part of the area. Unconsolidated deposits of Quaternary age, which consist of terrace gravel, colluvium, eolian sand and silt. and alluvium, mantle the Wind River formation in much of the area. In the irrigated parts of the project, water from domestic use is obtained chiefly from the sandstone beds of the Wind River formation although some is obtained from the alluvium underlying the bottom land and from the unconsolidated deposits underlying the lower terraces along the Wind River. Although adequate quantities if water for domestic use are available from the Wind River formation, there quantities are not considered to be large enough to warrant pumping of ground water for irrigation. Only a few wells are in the nonirrigated part of the area. When this new land is irrigated, a body of ground water will gradually form in the terrace deposits and the alluvial and colluvial-alluvial deposits. Eventually, the terrace deposits may yield adequate quantities of water for domestic and stock use, but only locally are the alluvial and colluvial-alluvial deposits likely to become suitable aquifers. In the Riverton irrigation project area, ground water occurs under water-table conditions near the surface and under artesian conditions in certain strata at both shallow and greater depths. Irrigation is the principal source of recharge to the shallow aquifers; the water level in wells that tap these aquifers fluctuates with irrigation. The depth to water in the shallow wells ranges from less than 1 foot to about 30 feet below the land surface, depending on the season of the year and on the length of time the land has been irrigated. The water level in the wells that tap the deep confined aquifers , which receive recharge indirectly from surface sources, fluctuates only slightly because the recharge and discharge are more constant. In most places the depth to water in wells penetrating the deep confined aquifers is mush greater than that in shallow wells. but in certain low areas water from the deep aquifers flows at the surface from wells. Ground water moves from the area of recharge in the direction of the hydraulic gradient and is discharges either by evapotranspiration; by inflow into streams, drains, or lakes; by pumping or flow of wells; or by flow of springs. Waterlogging and the associated development of saline soils are common in parts of the Riverton irrigation project and adjacent irrigated land. The waterlogging is in part the result of the infiltration of irrigation water in excess of the capacity of the aquifers to store and transmit this added recharge. The solution of the drainage problems involves the consideration of a number of factors, some of which are inadequately known in some parts of the area and require further investigation before fully effective drainage measures can be designed. The results of an aquifer test to determine the hydrologic characteristics of the Wind River formation at Riverton indicate a transmissibility of 10,000 gallons per day per foot (10,000 gpd per ft) and a storage coefficient of 2 x 10 -4 . The results of the test provide a part of the necessary foundation for the solution of present and future water-supply problems at Riverton and throughout the project area. Water from shallow aquifers in irrigated tracts in the Riverton irrigation project area generally contains large amounts of dissolved solids that were leached from the soil and rocks by infiltrating irrigation water. However, wells tapping beds that receive considerable recharge from influent canal and drain seepage yield water of relatively low mineralizatoin. Dilute water is obtained also from some shallow wells in the alluvial bottom lands and on low stream terraces that border the Wind Rover. Water from deep aquifers generally is more dilute than that from shallow aquifers. However, ground water from the deep aquifers, unmixed with irrigation water, generally has a percent sodium greater than 80. Analyses of salt crusts on the ground surface in low areas that are affected by effluent seepage and a high water table show predominance of sodium sulfate salinity, and from determinations of the water-soluble and acid-soluble substances in several samples of soil and shale it is apparent that harmful concentrations of salts are being deposited in poorly drained area. Although most of the soul in the Midvale irrigation district is of the normal arid type, analyses of soil samples show that saline, nonsaline alkaline, and saline alkaline types also are present.

Wyoming

Small-scale water deficits after wildfires create long-lasting ecological impacts

Ecological droughts are deficits in soil–water availability that induce threshold-like ecosystem responses, such as causing altered or degraded plant-community conditions, which can be exceedingly difficult to reverse. However, 'ecological drought' can be difficult to define, let alone to quantify, especially at spatial and temporal scales relevant to land managers. This is despite a growing need to integrate drought-related factors into management decisions as climate changes result in precipitation instability in many semi-arid ecosystems. We asked whether success in restoration seedings of the foundational species big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) was related to estimated water deficit, using the SoilWat2 model and data from >600 plots located in previously burned areas in the western United States. Water deficit was characterized by: (1) the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a coarse-scale drought index, and (2) the number of days with wet and warm conditions in the near-surface soil, where seeds and seedlings germinate and emerge (i.e. days with 0–5 cm deep soil water potential >−2.5 MPa and temperature above 0 °C). SPEI, a widely used drought index, was not predictive of whether sagebrush had reestablished. In contrast, wet-warm days elicited a critical drought threshold response, with successfully reestablished sites having experienced seven more wet-warm days than unsuccessful sites during the first March following summer wildfire and restoration. Thus, seemingly small-scale and short-term changes in water availability and temperature can contribute to major ecosystem shifts, as many of these sites remained shrubless two decades later. These findings help clarify the definition of ecological drought for a foundational species and its imperiled semi-arid ecosystem. Drought is well known to affect the occurrence of wildfires, but drought in the year(s) after fire can determine whether fire causes long-lasting, negative impacts on ecosystems.

Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah

Water Budgets: Foundations for Effective Water-Resources and Environmental Management

INTRODUCTION Water budgets provide a means for evaluating availability and sustainability of a water supply. A water budget simply states that the rate of change in water stored in an area, such as a watershed, is balanced by the rate at which water flows into and out of the area. An understanding of water budgets and underlying hydrologic processes provides a foundation for effective water-resource and environmental planning and management. Observed changes in water budgets of an area over time can be used to assess the effects of climate variability and human activities on water resources. Comparison of water budgets from different areas allows the effects of factors such as geology, soils, vegetation, and land use on the hydrologic cycle to be quantified. Human activities affect the natural hydrologic cycle in many ways. Modifications of the land to accommodate agriculture, such as installation of drainage and irrigation systems, alter infiltration, runoff, evaporation, and plant transpiration rates. Buildings, roads, and parking lots in urban areas tend to increase runoff and decrease infiltration. Dams reduce flooding in many areas. Water budgets provide a basis for assessing how a natural or human-induced change in one part of the hydrologic cycle may affect other aspects of the cycle. This report provides an overview and qualitative description of water budgets as foundations for effective water-resources and environmental management of freshwater hydrologic systems. Perhaps of most interest to the hydrologic community, the concepts presented are also relevant to the fields of agriculture, atmospheric studies, meteorology, climatology, ecology, limnology, mining, water supply, flood control, reservoir management, wetland studies, pollution control, and other areas of science, society, and industry. The first part of the report describes water storage and movement in the atmosphere, on land surface, and in the subsurface, as well as water exchange among these compartments. Our ability to measure these phenomena and inherent uncertainties in measurement techniques also are discussed. The latter part of the report presents a number of case studies that illustrate how water-budget studies are conducted, documents how human activities affect water budgets, and describes how water budgets are used to address water and environmental issues.

Circular

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report

Occurrence and temporal variability of methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) and other volatile organic compounds in select sources of drinking water : results of the focused survey

The large-scale use of the gasoline oxygenate methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), and its high solubility, low soil adsorption, and low biodegradability, has resulted in its detection in ground water and surface water in many places throughout the United States. Studies by numerous researchers, as well as many State and local environmental agencies, have discovered high levels of MTBE in soils and ground water at leaking underground gasoline-storage-tank sites and frequent occurrence of low to intermediate levels of MTBE in reservoirs used for both public water supply and recreational boating. In response to these findings, the American Water Works Association Research Foundation sponsored an investigation of MTBE and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the Nation's sources of drinking water. The goal of the investigation was to provide additional information on the frequency of occurrence, concentration, and temporal variability of MTBE and other VOCs in source water used by community water systems (CWSs). The investigation was completed in two stages: (1) reviews of available literature and (2) the collection of new data. Two surveys were associated with the collection of new data. The first, termed the Random Survey, employed a statistically stratified design for sampling source water from 954 randomly selected CWSs. The second, which is the focus of this report, is termed the Focused Survey, which included samples collected from 134 CWS source waters, including ground water, reservoirs, lakes, rivers, and streams, that were suspected or known to contain MTBE. The general intent of the Focused Survey was to compare results with the Random Survey and provide an improved understanding of the occurrence, concentration, temporal variability, and anthropogenic factors associated with frequently detected VOCs. Each sample collected was analyzed for 66 VOCs, including MTBE and three other ether gasoline oxygenates (hereafter termed gasoline oxygenates). As part of the Focused Survey, 451 source-water samples and 744 field quality-control (QC) samples were collected from 78 ground-water, 39 reservoir and (or) lake, and 17 river and (or) stream source waters at fixed intervals for a period of 1 year. Using a common assessment level of 0.2 μg/L (micrograms per liter) (2.0 μg/L for methyl ethyl ketone), 37 of the 66 VOCs analyzed were detected in both surveys. However, VOCs, especially MTBE and other gasoline oxygenates, were detected more frequently in the Focused Survey than in the Random Survey. MTBE was detected in 55.5 percent of the CWSs sampled in the Focused Survey and in 8.7 percent of those sampled in the Random Survey. Little difference in occurrence, however, was observed for trihalomethanes (THMs), which were detected in 16.4 and 14.8 percent of Focused Survey and Random Survey CWSs, respectively. This may indicate a pervasive occurrence of THMs in several source-water types, regardless of CWS size or geographic location. Using data at or above the method detection limit to assess temporal variability and anthropogenic factors associated with frequent detection of select VOCs, concentrations in the Focused Survey in ground-water, reservoir, and river source waters were typically less than 1 μg/L. Also, at a 95-percent confidence interval, no statistically significant differences were observed in comparing concentrations in the first and second ground-water sample. A weak seasonal pattern was observed in samples collected from reservoirs and lakes where gasoline oxygenates and other gasoline compounds were detected more frequently during spring and summer, presumedly a result of increased use of motorized watercraft during these seasons. In contrast, seasonal patterns were not observed in samples collected from rivers and streams. The lack of seasonal differences in river and stream source waters sampled may indicate a common and continuous source of contamination. The most frequently detected VOC (MTBE) and the two most frequently occurring subgroups of VOCs (gasoline oxygenates and THMs) detected in CWS source waters were further characterized to evaluate some anthropogenic factors that may better explain their frequent occurrence. Gasoline oxygenates were detected in 73.9 percent of all CWSs sampled. The concentration of gasoline oxygenates was slightly correlated with watercraft use on reservoirs inside MTBE high-use areas (r2=0.3783) but not outside of these areas (r2=0.0242). In general, the concentration of gasoline oxygenates increased as watercraft use increased. THMs were detected in 47.8 percent of the CWSs supplied by surface water. The frequent occurrence of THMs in reservoir source waters was determined to be an artifact of disinfection and the recycling of chlorinated water to these reservoirs. All CWSs with frequent occurrence of THMs served by a reservoir indicated that chlorine was added to waters for various reasons and that the chlorinated water was then released back to, or upstream of, the reservoir or lake that was sampled.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

A spatial features register: Toward standardization of spatial features

As the need to share spatial data increases, more than agreement on a common format is needed to ensure that the data is meaningful to both the importer and the exporter. Effective data transfer also requires common definitions of spatial features. To achieve this, part 2 of the Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS) provides a model for a spatial features data content specification and a glossary of features and attributes that fit this model. The model provides a foundation for standardizing spatial features. The glossary now contains only a limited subset of hydrographic and topographic features. For it to be useful, terms and definitions must be included for other categories, such as base cartographic, bathymetric, cadastral, cultural and demographic, geodetic, geologic, ground transportation, international boundaries, soils, vegetation, water, and wetlands, and the set of hydrographic and topographic features must be expanded. This paper will review the philosophy of the SDTS part 2 and the current plans for creating a national spatial features register as one mechanism for maintaining part 2.

Cartography and Geographic Information Systems

Forecasting runout of rock and debris avalanches

Physically based mathematical models and statistically based empirical equations each may provide useful means of forecasting runout of rock and debris avalanches. This paper compares the foundations, strengths, and limitations of a physically based model and a statistically based forecasting method, both of which were developed to predict runout across three-dimensional topography. The chief advantage of the physically based model results from its ties to physical conservation laws and well-tested axioms of soil and rock mechanics, such as the Coulomb friction rule and effective-stress principle. The output of this model provides detailed information about the dynamics of avalanche runout, at the expense of high demands for accurate input data, numerical computation, and experimental testing. In comparison, the statistical method requires relatively modest computation and no input data except identification of prospective avalanche source areas and a range of postulated avalanche volumes. Like the physically based model, the statistical method yields maps of predicted runout, but it provides no information on runout dynamics. Although the two methods differ significantly in their structure and objectives, insights gained from one method can aid refinement of the other.

Conference Paper

A framework for integrating spatiotemporal deep learning methods with landsat for annual land cover and impervious surface mapping

Land cover information is essential for understanding Earth’s surface dynamics and how vegetation, water, soil, climate, and terrain interact. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) has been the authoritative source for consistent U.S. land cover mapping. To extend NLCD’s temporal resolution and reduce production latency, we developed the Land Cover Artificial Mapping System (LCAMS)—a prototype spatiotemporal deep learning framework piloted as the foundation for the new Annual NLCD. LCAMS builds on concepts from legacy NLCD and the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiatives. It employs a loosely coupled two-stage architecture consisting of independent but functionally interdependent spatial and temporal models. Spatial models extract per-year information from Landsat data, while the temporal models refine the spatial outputs to enforce inter-annual consistency—critical for reliable land change monitoring. LCAMS produces annual 30 m resolution land cover and impervious surface outputs, with region-specific fine-tuning to generalize across diverse landscapes and temporal dynamics. Validation was conducted using an independent dataset of 1925 randomly sampled plots from five U.S. Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) tiles spanning 1985-2021, selected for spatial and temporal variability. This dataset was used consistently to evaluate LCAMS, Legacy NLCD, and LCMAP. Using the NLCD legend, LCAMS achieved 72.1 ± 1.60% overall agreement, compared to 71.1 ± 1.7% agreement for Legacy NLCD. Using the LCMAP legend, LCAMS achieved 83.4 ± 1.22% agreement, compared to 84.6 ± 1.11% agreement for LCMAP. Overall, LCAMS delivers comparable accuracy while offering higher thematic resolution, longer temporal coverage, and automated production of annual 30 m CONUS land cover.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado

Seismic hazards and land-use planning

Basic earth-science data are necessary for a realistic assessment of seismic hazards and as a basis for limiting corrective land-use controls only to those areas of greatest hazard. For example, the location, character, and amount of likely displacement and activity of surface faulting can be predicted if detailed geologic maps and seismic data are available and are augmented by field studies at critical localities. Because few structures can withstand displacement of their foundations, they should be located off active fault traces, the distance varying with the character of faulting, the certainty with which fault traces are known, and the importance of the structure. Recreational activities and other nonoccupancy land uses should be considered for fault zone areas where land is under pressure for development; elsewhere, such areas should remain as open space. Two methods of predicting ground shaking effects have applications to land-use decisions: (1) Relative earthquake effects can be related to firmness of the ground and can be used in a gross way to allocate population density in the absence of more sophisticated analyses; and (2) intensity maps, based on, (a) damage from former earthquakes, or (b) a qualitative analyses of geologic units added to a design earthquake, can be helpful both for general and specific plans. Theoretical models are used with caution to predict ground motion for critical structures to be located at specific sites with unique foundation conditions. Fully adequate methods of assessing possible shaking remain to be developed. Where land-use decisions do not reflect likely ground shaking effects, stringent building codes are needed, particularly for important structures. Ground failure (landsliding, ground cracking and lurching, differential settlement, sand boils, and subsidence) commonly results from liquefaction, loss of soil strength, or compaction. Areas suspected of being most likely to fail should not be developed unless detailed site studies can demonstrate the hazard does not exist or can be overcome. Various methods can be used to reduce the high, long-term public costs that follow development of unstable ground. However, areas subject to tectonic deformation generally cannot be predicted nor can effects of such deformation be minimized. Large water waves, such as produced by tsunamis, seiches, and dam failure or overtopping, can be anticipated in many places. Their effects can be lessened by land-use regulations similar to flood-plain zoning, restrictions on location of critical structures, and appropriate warning systems. Many local, state, and federal government agencies, universities, and private consultants may be able to assist planners by advising them of pertinent data and where those data can be obtained. Interpretation of the data for an evaluation of seismic risk commonly requires a team of planners, geologists, and soil and structural engineers.

Circular

Monitoring the southwestern Wyoming landscape—A foundation for management and science

Natural resource monitoring involves repeated collections of resource condition data and analyses to detect possible changes and identify underlying causes of changes. For natural resource agencies, monitoring provides the foundation for management and science. Specifically, analyses of monitoring data allow managers to better understand effects of land-use and other changes on important natural resources and to achieve their conservation and management goals. Examples of natural resources monitored on public lands include wildlife habitats, plant productivity, animal movements and population trends, soil chemistry, and water quality and quantity. Broader definitions of monitoring also recognize the need for scientifically valid data to help support planning efforts and informed decisions, to develop adaptive management strategies, and to provide the means for evaluating management outcomes.

Wyoming

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Colorado

Engineering geology considerations for park planning, Antelope Island State Park, Davis County, Utah

Report : 00 - 1 In the mid-1980s, historically high levels of Great Salt Lake caused damage to park facilities on Antelope Island and destroyed the causeway linking the park to the mainland. Information on the engineering geology of Antelope Island can be used to improve park facilities and reduce the risk from geologic hazards and poor construction conditions. Certain characteristics of the geologic environment need to be considered in park planning . During wet cycles, Great Salt Lake may reach static levels of 4,217 feet (1,285.3 m), and wave- and wind-elevated levels locally may reach 6.5 feet (2 m) higher. A probabilistic assessment of the earthquake ground-shaking hazard along the Wasatch Front indicates that peak ground accelerations of approximately 0.20 to 0.30 g have a one-in-ten chance of being exceeded in 50 years on the island . A slope-failure hazard exists locally in colluvial and Lake Bonneville deposits, along the modern shore, and beneath cliffs. Flash-flood and debris-flow hazards exist on alluvial fans. Areas in the southern two-thirds of the island may have a relatively high potential for radon emission. Particular soil types on the island may be expansive, compressible, erodible, impermeable, or susceptible to liquefaction or hydrocompaction. The distribution of most geologic hazards can be defined, and many locations on the island have conditions suitable for construction. Lacustrine sand and gravel deposits are wide-spread and have engineering characteristics that are generally favorable for foundations. However, facilities and roads built close to the modern shoreline may be susceptible to lake flooding and erosion, slope failures, shallow ground water, and burial by active sand dunes. Well-graded (poorly sorted) alluvial-fan deposits are generally most suitable for wastewater disposal, although they may be subject to flooding or be underlain by low-permeability, fine-grained lacustrine deposits.

Utah

Reconstructing the Quaternary depositional history using geologic mapping and three-dimensional modeling of the subsurface near Fort Morgan, northeastern Colorado

Centered on Fort Morgan, Colorado, this study is intended to build from previous work by adding a three-dimensional (3D) view of the subsurface to better understand the depositional history of Quaternary deposits. A 1:100,000 scale geologic map was made by combining previous geologic maps, regional soil maps, and recent field investigations. In addition to the geologic mapping, drill hole lithologic data from water wells and oil and gas exploration were compiled and lithologic units simplified to best represent the stratigraphy of the Quaternary deposits. From these subsurface data, a 3D subsurface model was constructed, trimmed at the surface by a digital elevation model, and a bedrock surface foundation gridded from drill hole data was added. The surface of the 3D model was then compared visually to the surficial geologic map. Cross sections were constructed from the 3D model and compared to site-specific drilling that was done as part of this project. Finally, the model was examined in detail to reconstruct the depositional history of the subsurface alluvial and eolian units. Alluvial and fluvial drainage basins exposed in the subsurface have a greater areal extent than the present-day narrow drainages. Older eolian sand in the subsurface tends to be interbedded with loess indicating coeval deposition. Holocene sand, both eroded from bedrock exposed at the surface north of the study area and reworked from the South Platte River, buries most of the interbedded older sand and loess.

Colorado

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

(Bradford) Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperatures and aridity because they are tightly controlled by patterns of moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of N. American drylands. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long-term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas and decreases in the north. However, we also found that exposure to hot-dry stress is both increasing faster than mean annual temperature and, surprisingly, most pronounced in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal patterns of soil moisture availability are identified in most regions, although the directions of change and implications for ecosystems vary geographically. These results provide useful insights about the likely impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems in N. America. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessment of climate change impacts in drylands and may provide a more rigorous foundation for making long-term strategic resource management decisions.

Global Change Biology

Broader impacts for ecologists: Biological soil crust as a model system for education

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are a complex community of algae, cyanobacteria, lichens, bryophytes, and assorted bacteria, fungi, archaea, and bacteriophages that colonize the soil surface. Biocrusts are particularly common in drylands and are found in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide. While diminutive in size, biocrusts often cover large terrestrial areas, provide numerous ecosystem benefits, enhance biodiversity, and are found in multiple configurations and assemblages across different climate and disturbance regimes. Biocrusts have been a focus of many ecologists, especially those working in semiarid and arid lands, as biocrusts are foundational community members, play fundamental roles in ecosystem processes, and offer rare opportunities to study biological interactions at small and large spatial scales. Due to these same characteristics, biocrusts have the potential to serve as an excellent teaching tool. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the utility of biocrust communities as a model system in science education. Functioning as portable, dynamic mini ecosystems, biocrusts can be used to teach about organisms, biodiversity, biotic interactions, abiotic controls, ecosystem processes, and even global change, and can be easy to use in nearly every classroom setup. For example, education principles, such as evolution and adaptation to stress, or structure and function (patterns and processes) can be applied by bringing biocrusts into the classroom as a teaching tool. In addition, discussing the utility of biocrusts in the classroom – including theory, hypothesis testing, experimentation, and hands-on learning – this document also provides tips and resources for developing education tools and activities geared toward impactful learning.

Frontiers in Microbiology