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USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey assessment of reserve growth outside of the United States

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of potential additions to oil and gas reserves for the United States by reserve growth in discovered accumulations. These volumes were derived by using a new methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and reviewed by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Committee on Resource Evaluation. This methodology was used to assess reserve growth in individual accumulations (reservoirs, groups of reservoirs, or fields). Selected, large, well-studied, conventional accumulations in the United States that are estimated to contribute most to reserve growth were assessed using analysis of geology and engineering practices. Potential additions to oil and gas reserves for large, discovered, conventional accumulations outside of the United States due to reserve growth were assessed using the U.S. accumulations as analogs. Potential oil and gas volumes were assumed to be added to proven plus probable reserves. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources resulting from reserve growth for discovered fields outside the United States that have reported in-place oil and gas volumes of 500 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater. The mean volumes of reserve growth were estimated at 665 billion barrels of crude oil; 1,429 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and 16 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. These volumes constitute a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas resources and represent the potential future growth of current global reserves over time based on better assessment methodology, new technologies, and greater understanding of reservoirs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

Guidance documents: Continued support to improve operations of fish hatcheries and field sites to reduce the impact or prevent establishment of New Zealand Mudsnails and other invasive mollusks

This project tested and revised a risk assessment/management tool authored by Moffitt and Stockton designed to provide hatchery biologists and others a structure to measure risk and provide tools to control, prevent or eliminate invasive New Zealand mudsnails (NZMS) and other invasive mollusks in fish hatcheries and hatchery operations. The document has two parts: the risk assessment tool, and an appendix that summarizes options for control or management. The framework of the guidance document for risk assessment/hatchery tool combines approaches used by the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) process with those developed by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), of Canada, Mexico, and the United States, in the Tri-National Risk Assessment Guidelines for Aquatic Alien Invasive Species. The framework approach for this attached first document assesses risk potential with two activities: probability of infestation and consequences of infestation. Each activity is treated equally to determine the risk potential. These two activities are divided into seven basic elements that utilize scientific, technical, and other relevant information in the process of the risk assessment. To determine the probability of infestation four steps are used that have scores reported or determined and averaged. This assessment follows a familiar HACCP process to assess pathways of entry, entry potential, colonization potential, spread potential. The economic, environmental and social consequences are considered as economic impact, environmental impact, and social and cultural influences. To test this document, the Principal Investigator worked to identify interested hatchery managers through contacts at regional aquaculture meetings, fish health meetings, and through the network of invasive species managers and scientists participating in the Western Regional Panel on Aquatic Nuisance Species and the 100th Meridian Initiative's Columbia River Basin Team, and the Western New Zealand Mudsnail Conference in Seattle. Targeted hatchery workshops were conducted with staff at Dworshak National Fish Hatchery Complex (ID), Similkameen Pond, Oroville WA, and Ringold Springs State Hatchery (WA). As a result of communications with hatchery staff, invasive species managers, and on site assessments of hatchery facilities, the document was modified and enhanced. Additional resources were added to keep it up to date. The result is a more simplified tool that can lead hatchery or management personnel through the process of risk assessment and provide an introduction to the risk management and communication process. In addition to the typical HACCP processes, this tool adds steps to rate and consider uncertainty and the weight of evidence regarding options and monitoring results . Uncertainty of outcome exists in most tools that can be used to control or prevent NZMS or other invasive mollusks from infesting an area. In additional this document emphasizes that specific control tools and plans must be tailored to each specific setting to consider the economic, environmental and social influences. From the testing and evaluation process, there was a strong recognition that a number of control and prevention tools previously suggested and reported in the literature from laboratory and small scale trials may not be compatible with regional and national regulations, economic constraints, social or cultural constraints, engineering or water chemistry characteristics of each facility. The options for control are summarized in the second document, Review of Control Measures for Hatcheries Infested with NZMS (Appendix A) that provides sources for additional resources and specific tools, and guidance regarding the feasibility and success of each approach. This tool also emphasizes that management plans need to be adaptive and incorporate oversight from professionals familiar with measuring risks of fish diseases, and treatments (e.g. the fish health practitioners and water quality and effluent management teams). Finally, with such a team, the adaptive management approach must be ongoing, and become a regular component of hatchery operations. Although it was the intent that this two part document would be included as part of the revised National Management and Control Plan for the NZMS proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and others, it is provided as a stand-alone document.

Cooperator Science Series↗
USGS2005

Monitoring the natural attenuation of petroleum in ground water at the former naval complex, Operable Unit A, Adak Island, Alaska, May and June 2003

During May and June 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey installed monitoring wells and collected data to characterize the effectiveness of natural attenuation processes for remediating petroleum-contaminated ground water at Operable Unit A of the former Naval complex on Adak Island, Alaska. In addition, the evidence for petroleum biodegradation in ground water was evaluated at selected petroleum sites, plans for future natural attenuation monitoring were suggested for the selected petroleum sites, and the natural attenuation monitoring strategy for the Downtown area of Adak Island was reviewed and refinements were suggested. U.S. Geological Survey personnel measured water levels and collected ground-water samples from about 100 temporary boreholes and 50 monitoring wells. Most samples were analyzed on-site for concentrations of selected petroleum compounds and natural attenuation parameters such as dissolved oxygen, ferrous iron, and carbon dioxide. The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the data on-site, selected new monitoring well locations, and installed, developed, and sampled 10 monitoring wells. The review and suggestions for the natural attenuation monitoring strategy focused on how to better achieve monitoring objectives specified in the Record of Decision for Adak Island petroleum sites. To achieve the monitoring objective of verifying that natural attenuation is occurring, the monitoring plans for each monitored natural attenuation site need to include sampling of at least one strategically placed well at the downgradient margin of the contaminant plume margin, preferably where contaminant concentrations are detectable but less than the cleanup level. Collection of natural attenuation parameter data and sampling background wells is no longer needed to achieve the monitoring objective of demonstrating the occurrence of natural attenuation. To achieve the objective of monitoring locations where chemical concentrations exceed specified cleanup levels, at least one natural attenuation well within or immediately downgradient from the contaminant source area at each site needs to be monitored. Achieving the Record of Decision-specified final monitoring objective of estimating the rate of natural attenuation to demonstrate achievement of cleanup levels within 75 years will be problematic. Demonstrating (predicting) achievement of cleanup levels within any timeframe in a technically defensible manner will be difficult to achieve using any type of short-term monitoring and evaluation, and will be particularly difficult to achieve through monitoring and evaluation of dissolved-phase petroleum only. Overall, natural attenuation processes appear to have greatly limited the extent of ground-water contamination at most sites investigated and have limited the risk that petroleum contaminants pose to downgradient receptors. Clarification or refinement of the monitoring objective to demonstrate cleanup within 75 years would be a reasonable prelude to developing a monitoring and data evaluation strategy to meet the objective.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, San Antonio, Texas, May 16–18, 2017

Introduction and Acknowledgments Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories, and have developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) and evaporites (gypsum, anhydrite, and halite) that span an interval of time encompassing more than 550 million years. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, post-depositional tectonic events, and geochemical weathering processes that form karst aquifers are varied and complex. These factors involve biological, chemical, and physical changes that when combined with the diverse climatic regimes in which karst development has taken place, result in the unique dual- or triple-porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrogeologic systems typically represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport in these terrains. The dissolution of carbonate rocks and the subsequent development of distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs have resulted in the most exceptional karst areas being designated as national or state parks. Tens of thousands of similar areas in the United States have been developed into commercial caverns and known privately owned caves. Both public and private properties provide access for scientists to study the flow of groundwater in situ . Likewise, the range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than for any other aquifer type. Karst aquifers and landscapes that form in tropical areas, such as the cockpit karst along the north coast of Puerto Rico, differ greatly from karst landforms in more arid climates, such as the Edwards Plateau in west-central Texas or the Guadalupe Mountains near Carlsbad, New Mexico, where hypogenic processes have played a major role in speleogenesis. Many of these public and private lands also contain unique flora and fauna associated with these karst hydrogeologic systems. As a result, numerous federal, state, and local agencies have a strong interest in the study of karst terrains. Many of the major springs and aquifers in the United States have developed in carbonate rocks, such as the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system in west-central Texas. These aquifers, and the springs that discharge from them, serve as major water-supply sources and form unique ecological habitats. Competition for the water resources of karst aquifers is common, and urban development and the lack of attenuation of contaminants in karst areas due to dissolution features that form direct pathways into karst aquifers can impact the ecosystem and water quality associated with these aquifers. The concept for developing a platform for interaction among scientists within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) working on karst-related studies evolved from the November 1999 National Groundwater Meeting of the USGS. As a result, the Karst Interest Group (KIG) was formed in 2000. The KIG is a loose-knit, grass-roots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst science. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the KIG encourages collaborative studies between the different mission areas of the USGS as well as with other federal and state agencies, and with researchers from academia and institutes. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops that have been held near nationally important karst areas. To date (2017) seven KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The workshops typically include oral and poster sessions on selected karst-related topics and research, as well as field trips to local karst areas. To increase non-USGS participation an effort was made for the workshops to be held at a university or institute beginning with the fourth workshop. Proceedings of the workshops are published by the USGS and are available online at the USGS publications warehouse https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/ by using the search term “karst interest group.” The first KIG workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, in 2001, in the vicinity of the large springs and other karst features of the Floridan aquifer system. The second KIG workshop was held in 2002, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in proximity to the carbonate aquifers of the northern Shenandoah Valley, and highlighted an invited presentation on karst literature by the late Barry F. Beck of P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates. The third KIG workshop was held in 2005, in Rapid City, South Dakota, near evaporite karst features in limestones of the Madison Group in the Black Hills of South Dakota. The Rapid City KIG workshop included field trips to Wind Cave National Park and Jewel Cave National Monument, and featured a presentation by Thomas Casadevall, then USGS Central Region Director, on the status of Earth science at the USGS. The fourth KIG workshop in 2008 was hosted by the Hoffman Environmental Research Institute and Center for Cave and Karst Studies at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky, near Mammoth Cave National Park and karst features of the Chester Upland and Pennyroyal Plateau. The workshop featured a late-night field trip into Mammoth Cave led by Rickard Toomey and Rick Olsen, National Park Service. The fifth KIG workshop in 2011 was a joint meeting of the USGS KIG and University of Arkansas HydroDays, hosted by the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. The workshop featured an outstanding field trip to the unique karst terrain along the Buffalo National River in the southern Ozarks, and a keynote presentation on paleokarst in the United States was delivered by Art and Peggy Palmer. The sixth KIG workshop was hosted by the National Cave and Karst Research Institute (NCKRI) in 2014, in Carlsbad, New Mexico. George Veni, Director of the NCKRI, served as a co-chair of the workshop with Eve Kuniansky of the USGS. The workshop featured speaker Dr. Penelope Boston, Director of Cave and Karst Studies at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, and Academic Director at the NCKRI, who addressed the future of karst research. The field trip on evaporite karst of the lower Pecos Valley was led by Lewis Land (NCKRI karst hydrologist), and the field trip on the geology of Carlsbad Caverns National Park was led by George Veni. This current seventh KIG workshop is being held in San Antonio at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). This 2017 workshop is being hosted by the Department of Geological Sciences’ Student Geological Society (SGS), and student chapters of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) and Association of Engineering Geologists (AEG), with support by the UTSA Department of Geological Sciences and Center for Water Research. The UTSA student chapter presidents, Jose Silvestre (SGS), John Cooper (AAPG), and Tyler Mead (AEG) serve as co-chairs of the 2017 workshop with Eve Kuniansky of the USGS. The technical session committee is chaired by Eve Kuniansky, USGS, and includes Michael Bradley, Tom Byl, Rebecca Lambert, John Lane, and James Kaufmann, all USGS, and Patrick Tucci, retired USGS. The logistics committee includes Amy Clark, Yongli Gao, and Lance Lambert (Department Chair), UTSA Department of Geological Sciences; and Ryan Banta and Allan Clark, USGS, San Antonio, Texas. The field trip committee is chaired by Allan Clark and includes Amy Clark, Yongli Gao, and Keith Muehlestein, UTSA; Marcus Gary, Edwards Aquifer Authority and University of Texas at Austin; Ron Green, Southwest Research Institute; Geary Schindel, Edwards Aquifer Authority; and George Veni, NCKRI. Additionally, two organizations have assisted the UTSA student chapters in hosting the meeting by donating funds to the chapters: the Edwards Aquifer Authority, San Antonio, Texas, and the Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Authority, Austin, Texas. Additionally, Yongli Gao, Center for Water Research and Department of Geological Sciences, UTSA, helped develop sessions on cave and karst research in China for this workshop. These proceedings could not have been accomplished without the assistance of Lawrence E. Spangler as co-editor who not only has subject matter expertise, but also serves as an editor with the USGS Science Publishing Network. We sincerely hope that this workshop continues to promote future collaboration among scientists of varied and diverse backgrounds, and improves our understanding of karst aquifer systems in the United States and its territories. The extended abstracts of USGS authors were peer reviewed and approved for publication by the USGS. Articles submitted by university researchers and other federal and state agencies did not go through the formal USGS peer review and approval process, and therefore may not adhere to USGS editorial standards or stratigraphic nomenclature. However, all articles had a minimum of two peer reviews and were edited for consistency of appearance in the proceedings. The use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program funded the publication costs of the proceedings.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Evaluation of the potential for hysteresis in index-velocity ratings for the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois, as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is mandated by a U.S. Supreme Court decree in order to monitor, and limit, the State of Illinois’ annual diversion of Great Lakes water through the manmade CSSC. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics reviews USGS streamgaging practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee expressed concern that the index-velocity rating—the method used to estimate mean cross-sectional velocity from a measured index velocity—may be subject to hysteresis at this site because of the unique, unsteady hydraulics of the canal. Hysteresis in index-velocity ratings can occur at sites where the flow distribution in the channel varies significantly between the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph for the same discharge. Presently, hysteresis in index-velocity ratings has been documented only in tidally affected sites. This report investigates whether hysteresis can occur at this nontidal site, and the conditions under which it is likely to occur, by using both a theoretical approach and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The theoretical analysis investigated the conditions required for hysteresis in the index-velocity rating, and the modeling analysis focused on the effect of the timing of the inflows from the CSSC and the Cal-Sag Channel on the potential for hysteresis and whether highly resolved simulations of actual high-flow events show any evidence of hysteresis. Based on both a theoretical analysis using observed historical data and an analysis using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, there is no conclusive evidence for the existence of hysteresis in the index-velocity rating at the USGS streamgage on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. Although the theoretical analysis indicated the possibility of hysteresis at this site, the hydrodynamic conditions required to generate hysteresis are not present at this site based on historical data. Ongoing streamgaging practices at this site will use the information in this report and include periodic assessment of the index-velocity rating for any signs of hysteresis that might result from future changes to the operation of this manmade canal.

Illinois↗
USGS2009

Geochemistry, Comparative Analysis, and Physical and Chemical Characteristics of the Thermal Waters East of Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas, 2006-09

A study was conducted by the U.S Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department to characterize the source and hydrogeologic conditions responsible for thermal water in a domestic well 5.5 miles east of Hot Springs National Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas, and to determine the degree of hydraulic connectivity between the thermal water in the well and the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park. The water temperature in the well, which was completed in the Stanley Shale, measured 33.9 degrees Celsius, March 1, 2006, and dropped to 21.7 degrees Celsius after 2 hours of pumping - still more than 4 degrees above typical local groundwater temperature. A second domestic well located 3 miles from the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park was discovered to have a thermal water component during a reconnaissance of the area. This second well was completed in the Bigfork Chert and field measurement of well water revealed a maximum temperature of 26.6 degrees Celsius. Mean temperature for shallow groundwater in the area is approximately 17 degrees Celsius. The occurrence of thermal water in these wells raised questions and concerns with regard to the timing for the appearance of the thermal water, which appeared to coincide with construction (including blasting activities) of the Highway 270 bypass-Highway 70 interchange. These concerns were heightened by the planned extension of the Highway 270 bypass to the north - a corridor that takes the highway across a section of the eroded anticlinal complex responsible for recharge to the hot springs of Hot Springs National Park. Concerns regarding the possible effects of blasting associated with highway construction near the first thermal well necessitated a technical review on the effects of blasting on shallow groundwater systems. Results from available studies suggested that propagation of new fractures near blasting sites is of limited extent. Vibrations from blasting can result in rock collapse for uncased wells completed in highly fractured rock. However, the propagation of newly formed large fractures that potentially could damage well structures or result in pirating of water from production wells appears to be of limited possibility based on review of relevant studies. Characteristics of hydraulic conductivity, storage, and fracture porosity were interpreted from flow rates observed in individual wells completed in the Bigfork Chert and Stanley Shale; from hydrographs produced from continuous measurements of water levels in wells completed in the Arkansas Novaculite, the Bigfork Chert, and Stanley Shale; and from a potentiometric-surface map constructed using water levels in wells throughout the study area. Data gathered from these three separate exercises showed that fracture porosity is much greater in the Bigfork Chert relative to that in the Stanley Shale, shallow groundwater flows from elevated recharge areas with exposures of Bigfork Chert along and into streams within the valleys formed on exposures of the Stanley Shale, and there was no evidence of interbasin transfer of groundwater within the shallow flow system. Fifteen shallow wells and two cold-water springs were sampled from the various exposed formations in the study area to characterize the water quality and geochemistry for the shallow groundwater system and for comparison to the geochemistry of the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park. For the quartz formations (novaculite, chert, and sandstone formations), total dissolved solids concentrations were very low with a median concentration of 23 milligrams per liter, whereas the median concentration for groundwater from the shale formations was 184 milligrams per liter. Ten hot springs in Hot Springs National Park were sampled for the study. Several chemical constituents for the hot springs, including pH, total dissolved solids, major cations and anions, and trace metals, show similarity with the shale formations

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1998

The North American Bird Banding Program: Into the 21st century

The authors examined the legal, scientific, and philosophical underpinnings of the North American Bird Banding Program [BBP], with emphasis on the U.S. Bird Banding Laboratory [BBL], but also considering the Canadian Bird Banding Office [BBO]. In this report, we review the value of banding data, enumerate and expand on tile principles under which any modern BBP should operate, and from them derive our recommendations. These are cast into a Mission Statement, a Role and Function Statement, and a series of specific recommendations addressing five areas: (1) permitting procedures and practices; (2) operational issues; (3) data management; (4) BBL organization and staffing; and (5) implementation. Our major tenets and recommendations are as follows: banding provides valuable data for numerous scientific, management, and educational purposes, and its benefits far outweigh necessary biological and fiscal costs, especially those incurred by the BBL and BBO; because of the value of banding data for management of avian resources, including both game and nongame birds, government support of the program is fully justified and appropriate; all banding data, if collected to appropriate standards, are potentially valuable; there are many ways to increase the value of banding data such as by endorsing, promoting, and applying competence and/or training standards for permit issuance; promoting bander participation in well-designed projects; and by encouraging the use of banding data for meta-analytical approaches; the BBL should apply, promote, and encourage such standards, participation, and approaches; the BBP should be driven by the needs of users, including scientists and managers; all exchange of data and most communication between banders and the BBL should become electronic in the near future; the computer system at the BBL should be modernized to one designed for a true client-server relationship and storage of data in on-line relational databases; the BBL should continue to maintain high quality control and editing standards and should strive to bring all data in the database up to current standards; however, the BBL should transfer a major portion of the responsibility for editing banding data to the bander by providing software that will permit the bander to edit his/her own data electronically before submission to the BBL; the BBL should build the capacity to store additional data tied to original band records able to be pre-edited and submitted electronically, such as recapture data, appropriate data from auxiliary marking (e.g. resightings of color-marked birds), and other data that gain value when pooled from many banders (e.g., measurements); however, the BBL should only accept such data if they are collected using standardized methods and as part of an established program designed to utilize such data; now is the time to consider options for implementing a Western Hemisphere banding program, with leadership from the BBL; the Patuxent Electronic Data Processing Section should become part of the BBL; additional scientific and technical staff must be added to the BBL; an Implementation Team should be formed to expedite our recommendations, following timetables outlined in this document.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS2011

Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act

list 83 coral species as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The petition was based on a predicted decline in available habitat for the species, citing anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification as the lead factors among the various stressors responsible for the potential decline. The NMFS identified 82 of the corals as candidate species, finding that the petition provided substantive information for a potential listing of these species. The NMFS established a Biological Review Team (BRT) to prepare this Status Review Report that examines the status of these 82 candidate coral species and evaluates extinction risk for each of them. This document makes no recommendations for listing, as that is a separate evaluation to be conducted by the NMFS. The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2017

Designing a high-frequency nutrient and biogeochemical monitoring network for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, northern California

Executive Summary This report is the third in a series of three reports that provide information about how high-frequency (HF) nutrient monitoring may be used to assess nutrient inputs and dynamics in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California (Delta). The purpose of this report is to provide the background, principles, and considerations for designing an HF nutrient-monitoring network for the Delta to address high-priority, nutrient-management questions. The report starts with discussion of the high-priority management questions to be addressed, continues through discussion of the questions and considerations that place demands and constraints on network design, discusses the principles applicable to network design, and concludes with the presentation of three example nutrient-monitoring network designs for the Delta. For three example network designs, we assess how they would address high-priority questions that have been identified by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program (Delta Regional Monitoring Program Technical Advisory Committee, 2015). This report, along with the other two reports of this series (Kraus and others, 2017; Downing and others, 2017), was drafted in cooperation with the Delta Regional Monitoring Program to help scientists, managers, and planners understand how HF data improve our understanding of nutrient sources and sinks, drivers, and effects in the Delta. The first report in the series (Kraus and others, 2017) provides an introduction to the reasons for and fundamental concepts behind using HF monitoring measurements, including a brief summary of nutrient status and trends in the Delta and an extensive literature review showing how and where other research and monitoring programs have used HF monitoring to improve our understanding of nutrient cycling. The report covers the various technologies available for HF nutrient monitoring and presents the different ways HF monitoring instrumentation may be used for both fixed station and spatial assessments. Finally, it presents numerous examples of how HF measurements are currently (2017) being used in the Delta to examine how nutrients and nutrient cycling are related to aquatic habitat conditions. The second report in the series (Downing and others, 2017) summarizes information about HF nutrient and associated biogeochemical monitoring in the north Delta. The report synthesizes data available from the nutrient and water quality monitoring network currently (2017) operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in this ecologically important region of the Delta. In the report, we present and discuss the available data at various timescales—first at the monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual timescales; and, second, for comparison, at the tidal and event timescales. As expected, we determined that there is substantial variability in nitrate concentrations at short timescales, such as within a few hours, but also significant variability at longer timescales such as months or years. This high variability affects calculation of fluxes and loads, indicating that HF monitoring is necessary for understanding and assessing flux-based processes and outcomes in Delta tidal environments.

California↗
USGS2012

Comparison of index velocity measurements made with a horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler

The State of Illinois' annual withdrawal from Lake Michigan is limited by a U.S. Supreme Court decree, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics is convened to review the U.S. Geological Survey's streamgage practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee raised a number of questions concerning the flows and streamgage practices in the CSSC near Lemont and this report provides answers to many of those questions. In addition, it is the purpose of this report to examine the index velocity meters in use at Lemont and determine whether the acoustic velocity meter (AVM), which is now the primary index velocity meter, can be replaced by the horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP), which is currently the backup meter. Application of the AVM and H-ADCP to index velocity measurements in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois, has produced good ratings to date. The site is well suited to index velocity measurements in spite of the large range of velocities and highly unsteady flows at the site. Flow variability arises from a range of sources: operation of the waterway through control structures, lockage-generated disturbances, commercial and recreational traffic, industrial withdrawals and discharges, natural inflows, seiches, and storm events. The influences of these factors on the index velocity measurements at Lemont is examined in detail in this report. Results of detailed data comparisons and flow analyses show that use of bank-mounted instrumentation such as the AVM and H-ADCP appears to be the best option for index velocity measurement in the CSSC near Lemont. Comparison of the rating curves for the AVM and H-ADCP demonstrates that the H-ADCP is a suitable replacement for the AVM as the primary index velocity meter in the CSSC near Lemont. A key component to Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is the USGS gaging station on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The importance of this gaging station in monitoring withdrawals from Lake Michigan has made it one of the most highly scrutinized gaging stations in the country. Any changes in streamgaging practices at this gaging station requires detailed analysis to ensure the change will not adversely affect the ability of the USGS to accurately monitor flows. This report provides a detailed analysis of the flow structure and index velocity measurements in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois, to ensure that decisions regarding the future of this streamgage are made with the best possible understanding of the site and the characteristics of the flow.

Illinois↗
USGS2019

A probabilistic assessment methodology for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery and associated carbon dioxide retention

The U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of the potential volume of hydrocarbons recoverable by injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into known oil reservoirs with historical production. The implementation of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) techniques could increase the U.S. recoverable hydrocarbon resource base. Use of anthropogenic CO 2 in the CO 2 -EOR process could reduce the amount of CO 2 released to the atmosphere by allowing a percentage of the injected CO 2 to remain in reservoir pore space once occupied by produced oil and water or by CO 2 dissolution in oil and water in the reservoir. The USGS has developed a new methodology for the national assessment of technically recoverable oil resources that may be produced by using current CO 2 -EOR technologies. The methodology relies on a proprietary reservoir-level database, the comprehensive resource database (CRD). The CRD incorporates commercially available geologic and engineering data, and USGS-defined play averages or province averages of reservoir data were used to populate incomplete records. Values from the CRD are used to estimate the original oil in place ( OOIP ) for each reservoir. The inputs are reviewed by USGS geologists, particularly when play or province averages have been used. Monte Carlo simulation is used to produce a numerical probability distribution for the OOIP for each reservoir, with the mean defined as the value of the OOIP in the CRD. A reservoir model (CO 2 Prophet, developed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Texaco, Inc.) is used to determine the incremental recovery factors for oil during the CO 2 -EOR process, on an individual reservoir basis. The model is also used to estimate the volume of CO 2 remaining in the reservoir after the CO 2 -EOR process is complete. Empirical decline curve analysis and comparison with data from published papers and reports on CO 2 -EOR projects are utilized to substantiate the simulation results. Numerical distributions of recovery factors are prepared for variations in the reservoir lithology (clastic or carbonate). The distribution of incremental oil is computed by multiplying the appropriate probability distribution of recovery factors by the individual reservoir distribution of the OOIP . A way to estimate the CO 2 remaining in the reservoir after the completion of the CO 2 -EOR process is also included in the methodology. Assessment results will be aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. This assessment methodology has been tested on the Horseshoe Atoll, Upper Pennsylvanian-Wolfcampian play in the Permian Basin Province in Texas; the play consists of 27 reservoirs having at least 2 billion barrels of OOIP that are amenable to the CO 2 -EOR process. The play was selected as a test case because CO 2 -EOR production data and published reports are available for several reservoirs within the play. Preliminary estimates of oil recoverable by implementation of miscible CO 2 -EOR are comparable to those reported in the literature and obtained by reservoir decline curve analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Environmental presence and persistence of pharmaceuticals: An overview

Emerging contaminants (ECs) in the environment – that is, chemicals with domestic, municipal, industrial, or agricultural sources that are not commonly monitored but may have the potential for adverse environmental effects – is a rapidly growing field of research. The use of “emerging” is not intended to infer that the presence of these compounds in the environment is new. These chemicals have been released into the environment as long as they have been in production or, in the case of hormones and other endogenous compounds, since the rise of animal life. What is emerging is the interest by the scientific and lay communities in the presence of these chemicals in the environment, the analytical capabilities required for detection, and the subtle effects that very small concentrations of these chemicals appear to have on aquatic biota. In December 2006, Environmental Science & Technology devoted an entire special issue (volume 40, number 23) to the topic of ECs, illustrating the increased interest in the subject. Within the EGs, one particular class that has seen a substantial increase in research over the past 10 years is pharmaceuticals and personal-care products (PPCPs). This increased research interest can be demonstrated by several means, including requests for proposals from funding agencies, but the clearest indication of a focused effort to understand the introduction, transformation, and potential health and environmental effects of PPCPs and ECs, in general, is the number of published reports. This increase can be shown by examining six environmental journals that regularly publish PPCP-related papers – Chemosphere , Environmental Science & Technology , Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry , Science of the Total Environment , Water Research , and Water Science and Technology . In 1998 there were 22 papers published on pharmaceuticals, antibiotics, or drugs in these 6 journals; by 2006, this number increased sixfold to 132 papers (Figure 1.1). This growth can be attributed to a number of factors. The presence of pharmaceuticals in surface-water samples from Europe and the United States was documented in several sentinel papers. These ground-breaking works encouraged other scientists to examine the rivers, streams, lakes, and reservoirs in their regions for such chemicals. In addition, the intense public attention paid to news reports on the environmental detections of these chemicals and possible effects of aquatic life has made this issue visible to the wastewater-treatment, drinking-water treatment, and regulatory communities. This has driven the funding bodies associated with these communities to fund studies or request proposals that address the presence, fate, and effects of PPCPs in aquatic systems. The release of the first comprehensive reconnaissance of pharmaceuticals and other wastewater contaminants in the United States provides an example of the intense media interest in this topic. Within 6 days on online publication of this study, 72 newspapers across the United States had published articles describing the results, either locally written or based on international media syndicate reports. There also was substantial concurrent coverage by local and national radio and television outlets, including the Cable News Network, ABC World News Tonight , and National Public Radio. A substantial fraction of these news stories may be attributable to press releases and media briefings prior to publication. However, the interest by television and print journalists in reporting the results of a peer-reviewed journal article to the general public was motivated by the recognition that describing the presence of PPCPs in water supplies would be of interest to the public. To better convey the results of the study published by Koplin et al. to the public, a separate general-interest fact sheet was published to summarize the important points of the study. Because PPCPs are commonly and widely used by individuals, there is likely a preexisting, personal identification with these compounds that does not occur for the wide range of other organic and inorganic contaminants whose presence in the environment has previously been described. This greater public “name recognition” makes itself known through the media to the regulatory and technical community and has prompted interest in sponsoring research that defines the composition and concentrations of PPCPs in potential sources and their fate and effects following relase into the environment. Independent of the drivers that potentially fuel the interest in studies of PPCPs, it is clear that PPCP research has grown beyond surface-water studies to examine issues such as: • Presence in other matrices, such as groundwater, landfill leachates, sediments, and biosolids. • Environmental transport and fate in surface water, groundwater, and soils amended with reclaimed water or biosolids. • PPCP source elucidation, such as wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), and aquaculture. • Removal during wastewater and drinking-water treatment. • Effects on aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, and human health. The chapters in this book provide an extensive examination of current environmental pharmaceutical research and are divided into three sections: “Occurrence and Analysis of Pharmaceuticals in the Environment,” “Environment Fate and Transformations of Veterinary Pharmaceuticals,” and “treatment of Pharmaceuticals in Drinking Water and Wastewater.” The purpose of this introductory overview chapter is to outline current (2004-2006) knowledge about the presence and concentration of PPCPs as described in the published literature. Previous reviews should be consulted for discussions on pre-2004 publications. Those reviews will provide the reader with a comprehensive introduction to the topic of PPCPs in the environment. This chapter describes the sources of PPCPs and other organic contaminants often associated with human wastewater into the environment, the range of concentrations present in various environmental compartments, and the potential routes of removal/sequestration. An overview of the sources and fate of veterinary pharmaceuticals will be discussed in Chapter 5, “Fate and Transport of Veterinary Medicines in the Soil Environment.”

Book chapter↗
USGS2006

Arsenic, Boron, and Fluoride Concentrations in Ground Water in and Near Diabase Intrusions, Newark Basin, Southeastern Pennsylvania

During an investigation in 2000 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) of possible contaminant releases from an industrial facility on Congo Road near Gilbertsville in Berks and Montgomery Counties, southeastern Pennsylvania, concentrations of arsenic and fluoride above USEPA drinking-water standards of 10 ?g/L and 4 mg/L, respectively, and of boron above the USEPA health advisory level of 600 ?g/L were measured in ground water in an area along the northwestern edge of the Newark Basin. In 2003, the USEPA requested technical assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to help identify sources of arsenic, boron, and fluoride in the ground water in the Congo Road area, which included possible anthropogenic releases and naturally occurring mineralization in the local bedrock aquifer, and to identify other areas in the Newark Basin of southeastern Pennsylvania with similarly elevated concentrations of these constituents. The USGS reviewed available data and collected additional ground-water samples in the Congo Road area and four similar hydrogeologic settings. The Newark Basin is the largest of the 13 major exposed Mesozoic rift basins that stretch from Nova Scotia to South Carolina. Rocks in the Newark Basin include Triassic through Jurassic-age sedimentary sequences of sandstones and shales that were intruded by diabase. Mineral deposits of hydrothermal origin are associated with alteration zones bordering intrusions of diabase and also occur as strata-bound replacement deposits of copper and zinc in sedimentary rocks. The USGS review of data available in 2003 showed that water from about 10 percent of wells throughout the Newark Basin of southeastern Pennsylvania had concentrations of arsenic greater than the USEPA maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 ?g/L; the highest reported arsenic concentration was at about 70 ?g/L. Few data on boron were available, and the highest reported boron concentration in well-water samples was 60 ?g/L in contrast to concentrations over 5,000 ?g/L in the Congo Road area. Although concentrations of fluoride up to 4 mg/L were reported for a few well-water samples collected throughout the Newark Basin, about 90 percent of the samples had concentrations of 0.5 mg/L or less. The USGS sampled 58 wells primarily in 5 areas in the Newark Basin, southeastern Pennsylvania, from February 2004 through April 2005 to identify other possible areas of elevated arsenic, boron, and fluoride and to characterize the geochemical environment associated with elevated concentrations of these constituents. Sampled wells included 12 monitor wells at an industrial facility near Congo Road, 45 private-supply wells in Berks, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties, and 1 private-supply well near Dillsburg, York County, an area where elevated fluoride in ground water had been reported in the adjacent Gettysburg Basin. Wells were sampled in transects from the diabase through the adjacent hornfels and into the unaltered shales of the Brunswick Group. Field measurements were made of pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, and specific conductance. Samples were analyzed in the laboratory for major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, dissolved and total concentrations of selected trace elements, and boron isotopic composition. Generally, the ground water from the 46 private-supply wells had relatively neutral to alkaline pH (ranging from 6.1 to 9.1) and moderate concentrations of dissolved oxygen. Most water samples were of the calcium-bicarbonate type. Concentrations of arsenic up to 60 ?g/L, boron up to 3,950 ?g/L, and fluoride up to 0.70 mg/L were measured. Drinking-water standards or health advisories (for constituents that do not have standards established) were exceeded most frequently (about 20 percent of samples) for arsenic and boron and less frequently (6 percent or less of samples) for total iron, manganese, sulfate, nitrate, lead, molybdenum, and strontium. In water from 12 monitor

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series: Admiralty Inlet

In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the Puget Sound Estuary's environment by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded by the Assistance Program request for proposals process, which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues. The issues include the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature (Van Cleve and others, 2009), which endorses a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and recommendations for action. This publication is the first of four U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Maps that make up the Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project. The remaining three map blocks to be published in the future, located south of Admiralty Inlet, are shown in figure 1. Puget Sound is a deep, fjord-type estuary covering an area of 2,330 km 2 in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (fig. 1). It is connected to the ocean by the Strait of Juan de Fuca, a turbulent passage approximately 160 km in length and 22 km wide at its west end, expanding to over 40 km wide at its east end (Thomson, 1994). During the Pleistocene, the area was occupied several times by lobes of continental ice, resulting in a complex basin-fill of glacial and interglacial deposits that are locally as thick as 1100 m (Johnson and others, 2001). The last glaciation, called the Fraser glaciation, began after 28,800±740 14 C yr B.P. when ice started a slow expansion (Clague, 1981). At peak advance the westward Juan de Fuca lobe reached the edge of the continental shelf through the Juan de Fuca Strait shortly before 14,460±200 14 C yr B.P. (Herzer and Bornhold, 1982). The southward Puget lobe advanced to its terminal position in Puget Sound by around 14,150 14 C yr B.P. (Porter and Swanson, 1998). Ice retreated from its maximum to northern Whidbey Island by 13,650±350 14 C yr B.P. (Dethier and others, 1995). Retreating glaciers resulted in a thick sequence of ice-contact, glacial-marine sediment, and early post-glacial sediments (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). These deposits have experienced the effects of a marine transgression followed by regression, resulting in a sea-level several tens of meters lower than the present day (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). A second transgression brought sea level to about the present level by around 5,470±120 14 C yr B.P. (Clague and others, 1982) establishing the present oceanographic and geologic environment Puget Sound is separated into four interconnected basins; Whidbey, Central (Main), Hood Canal, and South (Thomson, 1994). The Whidbey, Central, and Hood Canal basins are the three main branches of the Puget Sound estuary and are separated from the Strait of Juan de Fuca by a double sill at Admiralty Inlet. The Admiralty Inlet map area includes the Inlet and a portion of the Whidbey Basin (fig. 1). The shallower South Basin is separated by a sill at Tacoma Narrows and is highly branched with numerous finger inlets. Flow within Puget Sound is dominated by tidal currents of as much as 1 m/s at Admiralty Inlet, reducing to approximately 0.5 m/s in the Central Basin (Lavelle and others, 1988). The lack of silt and clay-sized sediments in the Admiralty Inlet map area is likely a result of the strong currents (see Ground-Truth Studies for the Admiralty Inlet Map Area, sheet 3). The subtidal component of flow reaches approximately 0.1 m/s and is driven by density gradients arising from the contrast in salty ocean water at the entrance and freshwater inputs from stream flow (Lavelle and others, 1988). The total freshwater input to Puget Sound is approximately 3.4 x 10 6 m 3 /day, primarily from the Skagit River (Cannon, 1983). The subtidal circulation mostly consists of a two-layered flow in the basins with fresher water exiting at the surface and saltier water entering at depth (Ebbesmeyer and Cannon, 2001). In general, surface waters flow north and deeper waters flow south; variations arise from wind effects that can drive a surface current in the same direction as the wind, and a baroclinic response in the lower layer to about 100-m depth (Matsuura and Cannon, 1997). Oceanographic properties are influenced by temporal forcing parameters such as reduced stream flow during the 2000-01 drought that increased surface salinity and decreased differences between surface and bottom waters (Newton and others, 2003). On offshore seismic-reflection profiles, Pleistocene strata (excluding latest Pleistocene glacial and post-glacial deposits) form a distinct seismic unit, bounded below by pre-Tertiary or Tertiary basement and above by typically flat-lying latest Pleistocene to Holocene deposits that fill in erosional or depositional relief (Johnson and others, 2001). Cores from central Puget Sound have accumulation rates that range from 85 to 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr, or 0.12 to 2.4 cm/yr; the highest accumulation rates are near the southern end of central Puget Sound (Carpenter and others, 1985). Carpenter and others (1985) un-weighted arithmetic mean of accumulation rates for central Puget Sound deeper stations is 480±340 (± one standard deviation) mg/cm 2 /yr. Lavelle and others (1985) also found rates as high as 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr over the past approximately 70 years in cores in the Central Basin off of and north and south of Elliott Bay. Puget Sound basin rates are comparable to rates in midshelf silt deposits on the Washington coast north of the Columbia River (Nittrouer and others, 1979). The deep subtidal (in other words, below SCUBA depths) habitats of Puget Sound are relatively poorly known. A few subtidal surveys exist for several habitat types from the 1960s and 1970s (reviewed in Dethier, 1990), using grab and box core data. The Dethier (1990) review divides habitat up into Coast and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) substrate, water column energy, and depth zones but does not attempt to map these habitats, rather it is an inventory of habitats found in the area and the flora and fauna associated with each habitat. The approach of the Southern Salish Sea Mapping project is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data (the undersea equivalent of satellite remote-sensing data in terrestrial mapping), acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, and bottom-sediment sampling data. This approach is based in part on methods presented and data collection and product needs identified at the Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop (Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop Steering Committee, 2008), attended by coastal and marine managers and scientists. The map products display seafloor geomorphology and substrate, and identify potential marine benthic habitats. It is emphasized that the more interpretive habitat and geology maps rely on the integration of multiple, new high-resolution datasets and that mapping at small scales would not be possible without such data. Oceanographic current and wave data is not included in this analysis, however, the accompanying geographic information system (GIS) data set is designed and intended to be combined with oceanographic and biologic data sets assembled by others in the future and some of the GIS data has already been incorporated in the unpublished Nature Conservancy Benthic Habitats of Puget Sound database. This publication includes four map sheets, explanatory text, and a descriptive pamphlet. Each map sheet is published as a portable document format (PDF) file. ESRI ArcGIS compatible geotiffs (for example, bathymetry) and shapefiles (for example video observation points) will be available for download in the data catalog associated with this publication (Cochrane, 2015). An ArcGIS Project File with the symbology used to generate the map sheets is also provided. For those who do not own the full suite of ESRI GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using ESRI ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html .

Washington↗
USGS2014

Spatially explicit habitat models for 28 fishes from the Upper Mississippi River System (AHAG 2.0)

Environmental management actions in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) typically require pre-project assessments of predicted benefits under a range of project scenarios. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) now requires certified and peer-reviewed models to conduct these assessments. Previously, habitat benefits were estimated for fish communities in the UMRS using the Aquatic Habitat Appraisal Guide (AHAG v.1.0; AHAG from hereon). This spreadsheet-based model used a habitat suitability index (HSI) approach that drew heavily upon Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1980) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). The HSI approach requires developing species response curves for different environmental variables that seek to broadly represent habitat. The AHAG model uses species-specific response curves assembled from literature values, data from other ecosystems, or best professional judgment. A recent scientific review of the AHAG indicated that the model’s effectiveness is reduced by its dated approach to large river ecosystems, uncertainty regarding its data inputs and rationale for habitat-species response relationships, and lack of field validation (Abt Associates Inc., 2011). The reviewers made two major recommendations: (1) incorporate empirical data from the UMRS into defining the empirical response curves, and (2) conduct post-project biological evaluations to test pre-project benefits estimated by AHAG. Our objective was to address the first recommendation and generate updated response curves for AHAG using data from the Upper Mississippi River Restoration-Environmental Management Program (UMRR-EMP) Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) element. Fish community data have been collected by LTRMP (Gutreuter and others, 1995; Ratcliff and others, in press) for 20 years from 6 study reaches representing 1,930 kilometers of river and >140 species of fish. We modeled a subset of these data (28 different species; occurrences at sampling sites as observed in day electrofishing samples) using multiple logistic regression with presence/absence responses. Each species’ probability of occurrence, at each sample site, was modeled as a function of 17 environmental variables observed at each sample site by LTRMP standardized protocols. The modeling methods used (1) a forward-selection process to identify the most important predictors and their relative contributions to predictions; (2) partial methods on the predictor set to control variance inflation; and (3) diagnostics for LTRMP design elements that may influence model fits. Models were fit for 28 species, representing 3 habitat guilds (Lentic, Lotic, and Generalist). We intended to develop “systemic models” using data from all six LTRMP study reaches simultaneously; however, this proved impossible. Thus, we “regionalized” the models, creating two models for each species: “Upper Reach” models, using data from Pools 4, 8, and 13; and “Lower Reach” models, using data from Pool 26, the Open River Reach of the Mississippi River, and the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. A total of 56 models were attempted. For any given site-scale prediction, each model used data from the three LTRMP study reaches comprising the regional model to make predictions. For example, a site-scale prediction in Pool 8 was made using data from Pools 4, 8, and 13. This is the fundamental nature and trade-off of regionalizing these models for broad management application. Model fits were deemed “certifiably good” using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit statistic (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000). This test post-partitions model predictions into 10 groups and conducts inferential tests on correspondences between observed and expected probability of occurrence across all partitions, under Chi-square distributional assumptions. This permits an inferential test of how well the models fit and a tool for reporting when they did not (and perhaps why). Our goal was to develop regionalized models, and to assess and describe circumstances when a good fit was not possible. Seven fish species composed the Lentic guild. Good fits were achieved for six Upper Reach models. In the Lower Reach, no model produced good fits for the Lentic guild. This was due to (1) lentic species being much less prominent in the Lower Reach study areas, and (2) those that do express greater prominence principally do so only in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. Thus, developing Lower Reach models for Lentic species will require parsing La Grange from the other two Lower Reach study areas and fitting separate models. We did not do that as part of this study, but it could be done at a later time. Nine species comprised the Lotic guild. Good fits were achieved for seven Upper Reach models and six Lower Reach models. Four species had good fits for both regions (flathead catfish, blue sucker, sauger, and shorthead redhorse). Three species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (blue catfish, rock bass, and skipjack herring). Twelve species comprised the Generalist guild. Good fits were achieved for five Upper Reach models and eight Lower Reach models. Six species had good fits for both regions (brook silverside, emerald shiner, freshwater drum, logperch, longnose gar, and white bass). Two species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (red shiner and blackstripe topminnow). Poorly fit models were almost always due to the diagnostic variable “field station,” a surrogate for river mile. In these circumstances, the residuals for “field station” were non-randomly distributed and often strongly ordered. This indicates either fitting “pool scale” models for these species and regions, or explicitly model covariances between “field station” and the other predictors within the existing modeling framework. Further efforts on these models should seek to resolve these issues using one of these two approaches. In total, nine species, representing two of the three guilds (Lotic and Generalist), produced well-fit models for both regions. These nine species should comprise the basis for AHAG 2.0. Additional work, likely requiring downscaling of the regional models to pool-scale models, will be needed to incorporate additional species. Alternately, a regionalized AHAG could be comprised of those species, per region, that achieved well-fit models. The number of species and the composition of the regional species pools will differ among regions as a consequence. Each of these alternatives has both pros and cons, and managers are encouraged to consider them fully before further advancing this approach to modeling multi-species habitat suitability.

Upper Mississippi River System↗