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Spatially referenced watershed models for the binational Red–Assiniboine River Basin: Bayesian vs frequentist comparison

Excess nutrient loading remains a leading cause of declining water quality in lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters worldwide, with global economic costs of US$200 billion – US$2 trillion annually from impacts on fisheries, tourism, freshwater resources, and water treatment. Our study focuses on total phosphorus (TP) in Lake Winnipeg and its binational Red-Assiniboine River Basin, where nutrient inputs have degraded water quality and increased cyanobacterial blooms. These changes pose ecological, public health, and economic risks. We applied a spatially referenced watershed model with a hybrid statistical-mechanistic structure partitioning annual nutrient loads into land-use export, land-to-water delivery, and in-reservoir decay. Bayesian and traditional frequentist model calibrations were compared. In the frequentist model, coefficients for agricultural inputs, forests /wetlands, stream channels, precipitation, and reservoir losses were statistically significant, whereas coefficient for wastewater was not. In contrast, all variables were successfully calibrated using the Bayesian approach. Model results delineate TP-export hotspots across the basin, showing that 54–62% of TP originates from the U.S., with agricultural sources ranging 62–72%—highlighting the importance of agriculture-focused Best Management Practices. Given the global relevance of nutrient-driven water-quality challenges, our results highlight Bayesian calibration for robust risk assessment and adaptive nutrient management.

Red–Assiniboine River Basin

Transmissivity and water quality of water-producing zones in the intermediate aquifer system, Sarasota County, Florida

The intermediate aquifer system is an important water source in Sarasota County, Florida, because the quality of water in it is usually better than that in the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer. The intermediate aquifer system consists of a group of up to three water-producing zones separated by less-permeable units that restrict the vertical movement of ground water between zones. The diverse lithology, that makes up the intermediate aquifer system, reflects the variety of depositional environments that occurred during the late Oligocene and Miocene epochs. Slight changes in the depositional environment resulted in aquifer heterogeneity, creating both localized connection between water-producing zones and abrupt culmination of water-producing zones that are not well documented. Aquifer heterogeneity results in vertical and areal variability in hydraulic and water-quality properties. The uppermost water-producing zone is designated producing zone 1 but is not extensively used because of its limited production capability and limited areal extent. The second water-producing zone is designated producing zone 2, and most of the domestic- and irrigation-supply wells in the area are open to this zone. Additionally, producing zone 2 is utilized for public supply in southern coastal areas of Sarasota County. Producing zone 3 is the lowermost and most productive water-producing zone in the intermediate aquifer system. Public-supply well fields serving the cities of Sarasota and Venice, as well as the Plantation and Mabry Carlton Reserve well fields, utilize producing zone 3. Heads within the intermediate aquifer system generally increase with aquifer depth. However, localized head-gradient reversals occur in the study area, coinciding with sites of intense ground-water withdrawals. Heads in producing zones 1, 2, and 3 range from 1 to 23, 0.2 to 34, and 7 to 42 feet above sea level, respectively. Generally, an upward head gradient exists between producing zones 3 and 2. However, an upward head gradient between producing zones 2 and 1 does not consistently occur throughout Sarasota County, probably the result of greater ground-water withdrawals from producing zone 2 than from producing zone 1. The transmissivity of the intermediate aquifer system is spatially variable. Specific-capacity data from selected wells penetrating producing zones 2 and 3, were used to estimate transmissivity. Estimated transmissivity values for producing zones 2 and 3 range from about 100 to 26,000 feet squared per day and from about 1,300 to 6,200 feet squared per day, respectively. Because the capacity of specific water-producing zones is highly variable from site to site, estimating the performance of a specific water-producing zone as a water resource is difficult. Water samples collected during the study were analyzed for major-ion concentrations. Generally, bicarbonate type water from rock interaction occurs in northern Sarasota County; enriched calcium-magnesium-sulfate type water from deeper aquifers occurs in central Sarasota County; and sodium-chloride type water from saltwater mixing occurs in southern Sarasota County. In some areas of northern Sarasota County, the major-ion concentrations in water are lower in producing zone 2 than in producing zone 1. Major-ion concentrations in water are higher in producing zone 3 throughout the study area. A major objective of the study was to evaluate hydraulic and water-quality data to determine distinctions that could be used to characterize a particular producing zone. However, data indicate that both hydraulic and water-quality properties are highly variable within and between zones, and are more related to the degree of connection between and areal extent of water-producing zones than to aquifer depth and distance from the coast.

Florida

PFAS remediation in a bioelectrochemical system inoculated with the west branch consortium (WBC-2)

Groundwater contamination by per - and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) poses a persistent environmental and public health concern. This study evaluates a two-chambered bioelectrochemical system (BES) inoculated with the West Branch Consortium (WBC-2) for PFAS remediation. Under an applied cathodic potential of −450 mV (versus Ag/AgCl), the BES with active WBC-2 achieved >99.0% perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) removal within 21 days in deionized water with culture medium and > 98.9% removal of PFOS, perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA), and perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) in contaminated groundwater after 102 days. Intermediate formation (e.g., PFOA, 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonate (6:2 FTS), perfluoropropionic acid (PFPrA), perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA)) and background-corrected fluoride release were consistent with PFOS transformation under anaerobic reducing conditions potentially involving defluorination. Following repeated PFOS spikes (100 μg/L on Days 0, 50, and 399), PFOA, PFPrA, and PFBA accumulated over 664 days. Despite being the dominant accumulated compound, PFOA accounted for <1.8% of the total spiked PFOS mass. Minimal PFOS transformation occurred in controls without active WBC-2, highlighting the importance of microbial metabolism. Biofilm analysis revealed dense colonization of rod-shaped bacteria on carbon fiber brushes. Enrichment of Bacillus , Agrobacterium , and other low-abundance taxa suggests selective adaptation to BES and PFAS conditions. These findings highlight BES driven by electrochemically stimulated microbial activity as a promising strategy for PFAS remediation.

Journal of Water Process Engineering

Geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within Hays County, Texas

During 2023–24, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority, revised a previous publication of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers that was completed during 2018 within Hays County, Texas. The purpose of this report is to present the updated geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the rocks containing the Edwards and Trinity aquifers in Hays County from field observations of the surficial expressions of the rocks. The report includes a detailed 1:24,000-scale hydrostratigraphic map with names and descriptions of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the study area. The study includes updates to the interpretation of the Kainer Formation of the Edwards Group with the addition of a burrowed unit between the basal nodular and dolomitic members. Hydrostratigraphy was also updated with the addition of the Seco Pass HSU for the burrowed member of the Kainer Formation. The study also includes updates to the interpretation of the hydrostratigraphy of the Trinity aquifer with the addition of the cavernous HSU at the top of the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer and the Herff Falls HSU between the Bulverde and Rust HSUs of the middle zone of the Trinity aquifer. This updated report provides additional information about a complex aquifer system. The complexity in the aquifer system results from a combination of the original depositional history, bioturbation, development of primary and secondary porosity, postdepositional diagenesis, fracturing, and faulting.

Texas

Pathways for potential exposure to onshore oil and gas wastewater: What we need to know to protect human health

Produced water is a chemically complex waste stream generated during oil and gas development. Roughly four trillion liters were generated onshore in the United States in 2021 (ALL Consulting, 2022, https://www.gwpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021_Produced_Water_Volumes.pdf ). Efforts are underway to expand historic uses of produced water to offset freshwater needs in water-stressed regions, avoid induced seismic activity associated with its disposal, and extract commodities. Understanding the potential exposures from current and proposed produced water uses and management practices can help to inform health-protective practices. This review summarizes what is known about potential human exposure to produced water from onshore oil and gas development in the United States. We synthesize 236 publications to create a conceptual model of potential human exposure that illustrates the current state of scientific inquiry and knowledge. Exposure to produced water can occur following its release to the environment through spills or leaks during its handling and management. Exposure can also arise from authorized releases, including permitted discharges to surface water, crop irrigation, and road treatment. Knowledge gaps include understanding the variable composition and toxicity of produced water released to the environment, the performance of treatment methods, migration pathways through the environment that can result in human exposure, and the significance of the exposures for human and ecosystem health. Reducing these uncertainties may help in realizing the benefits of produced water use while simultaneously protecting human health.

Environmental Health Perspectives

Temperature

The “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) provides guidelines and procedures for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel who collect data used to assess the quality of the Nation’s surface-water and groundwater resources. This chapter, NFM A6.1, provides guidance and protocols for the measurement of temperature of air, of a surface-water body or in groundwater, which include the scientific basis of the measurement, selection and maintenance of equipment, calibration verification, troubleshooting, and procedures for measurement and reporting. It updates and supersedes USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 9, chapter A6.1, version 2.0, by Franceska D. Wilde. Temperature of air and water is routinely measured when water samples are collected, is often measured continually at USGS streamgages, and is a parameter regularly measured during laboratory and field experiments. The field method for measuring temperature described in this chapter is applicable to air and most natural waters. Before 2017, the NFM chapters were released in the USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations series. Effective in 2018, new and revised NFM chapters are being released in the USGS Techniques and Methods series; this series change does not affect the content and format of the NFM. More information is in the general introduction to the NFM (USGS Techniques and Methods, book 9, chapter A0) at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm9A0 . The authoritative current versions of NFM chapters are available in the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/ . Comments, questions, and suggestions related to the NFM can be addressed to nfm@usgs.gov .

Techniques and Methods

Quality of groundwater used for domestic supply in the Gilroy-Hollister basin and surrounding areas, California, 2022

More than 2 million Californians rely on groundwater from domestic wells for drinking-water supply. This report summarizes a 2022 California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP) water-quality survey of 33 domestic and small-system drinking-water supply wells in the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin and the surrounding areas, where more than 20,000 residents are estimated to utilize privately owned domestic wells. The study area includes the Llagas subbasin in the north, the North San Benito subbasin in the south, and the surrounding uplands. The study was focused on groundwater resources used for domestic drinking-water supply, which are mostly drawn from shallower parts of aquifer systems rather than those of groundwater resources used for public drinking-water supply in the same area. This assessment characterized the quality of ambient groundwater in the aquifer before filtration or treatment, rather than the quality of drinking water delivered to the tap. To provide context, the measured concentrations of constituents in groundwater were compared to Federal and California State regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A grid-based method was used to estimate the areal proportions of groundwater resources used for domestic drinking wells that have water-quality constituents present at high concentrations (above the benchmark), moderate concentrations (between one-half of the benchmark and the benchmark for inorganic constituents, or between one-tenth of the benchmark and the benchmark for organic constituents), and low concentrations (less than one-half or one-tenth the benchmark for inorganic and organic constituents, respectively). This method provides statistically representative results at the study-area scale and permits comparisons to other GAMA-PBP study areas. In the study area, inorganic constituents in groundwater were greater than regulatory benchmarks (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] or State of California maximum contaminant levels [MCLs]) for public drinking-water quality in 24 percent of domestic groundwater resources. The inorganic constituents present at concentrations greater than MCLs for drinking water were nitrate (as nitrogen), barium, chromium, and selenium. Total dissolved solids (TDS) or manganese were present at concentrations greater than the secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) that the State of California uses as aesthetic-based benchmarks in 48 percent of domestic groundwater resources. No volatile organic compounds or pesticide constituents were present at concentrations greater than regulatory benchmarks. Total coliform bacteria and enterococci were detected in 4 percent of domestic groundwater resources. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were detected in 19 percent of domestic groundwater resources, and 10 percent had concentrations greater than recently enacted (April 2024) EPA MCLs. Physical and chemical factors from natural and anthropogenic sources that could affect the groundwater quality were evaluated using results from statistical testing of associations between constituent concentrations and potential explanatory variables. In this study, relevant physical factors include well construction characteristics, groundwater age, site proximity to groundwater recharge or discharge zones, and potential sources of contamination. Relevant chemical factors include the initial chemistry of the recharge water, the mineralogy of the aquifer sediments, and the subsequent shifts in chemistry as biologic and geologic reactions alter groundwater in the subsurface. Nitrate concentrations were correlated to agricultural land use, distance from the boundary of the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin, and the proportion of modern (post-1950s) water captured by the well. Denitrification under anoxic redox conditions can mitigate some nitrate derived from fertilizer application. Total dissolved solids primarily were derived from water-rock interactions with soils and aquifer materials in the study area, but there were high concentrations where agricultural practices contributed additional TDS. Mineralogy of aquifer sediments and rocks also affect barium, selenium, boron, and chromium concentrations in the Gilroy-Hollister Valley groundwater basin. PFAS were positively correlated with urban land use and the proportion of modern water captured by the well.

California

Hydrogeology of unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers along the Salmon River, including Malone, Franklin County, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, investigated the hydrogeology of the unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers along the Salmon River corridor in northern Franklin County, New York. The study area covers roughly 147 square miles and includes the village of Malone and parts of the Towns of Malone, Bellmont, Burke, Constable, Westville, Bangor, Duane, and Franklin, New York. Groundwater is the primary source for water supply within the study area. Eighty-three percent of all residents use public water supplied from two production wells that draw water from a thick, highly productive sand-and-gravel aquifer likely receiving induced infiltration from the Salmon River. Twenty-four percent of the 187 verified domestic wells in the study area outside of the production well service area boundary are screened in typically discontinuous deposits of stratified sand and sand and gravel. Seventy-six percent of the wells are completed in bedrock aquifers including the Potsdam Sandstone, metamorphic rocks, Theresa Formation, and unknown bedrock. Characterizing and understanding potential groundwater resources is critical for protecting the quality of the groundwater. The information in this report may be used to guide delineation of groundwater contributing areas, assess potential threats to aquifers from both point and nonpoint sources, respond to contamination from spills or leaks from underground storage facilities or other sources, and to support assessments for future development of municipal water supplies.

New York

Seismic response comparison of a historical masonry church subject to real and simulated ground motions

In recent years, advanced numerical models and high-performance computing have facilitated the utilization of ground motion time series in the assessment of the non-linear dynamic behavior of historic masonry structures. Since recorded accelerograms can be sparse for specific analysis conditions, stochastic ground motion simulations have become a viable alternative to overcome this limitation. This study simulates the recorded acceleration time series of the Central Italy 2016 earthquake event at the closest station to the town of Macerata using a site-based stochastic approach. The simulated motions are seismologically evaluated using a goodness-of-fit method in terms of various intensity measures. The simulated records, in conjunction with real records, are used to study the non-linear dynamic behavior of San Filippo Neri church located in Macerata. The church of San Filippo represents an important example of Baroque religious architecture in central Italy, which was damaged and closed off to the public after the 2016 earthquake events. The construction was investigated with a vast diagnostic campaign which included on-site testing and dynamic identification tests. The collected data is used to calibrate the dynamic response of a three-dimensional finite element model of the church. The model is finally used to compare the non-linear seismic responses under real and simulated ground motions with the site recorded damage. The results of structural responses demonstrate a strong agreement between the real and simulated records, providing evidence to support the validation of the site-based stochastic simulation.

Macerata

Seismic velocity changes from repetitive seismicity at Mauna Loa prior to and during its 2022 eruption

Mauna Loa’s short-lived eruption from late November to early December 2022 marked the culmination of nearly a decade of elevated seismic activity and geodetic inflation. The volcano has been monitored by a network of permanent, short period and broadband seismometers. I used the continuous waveform data from that network starting in 2012 to generate a catalog of seismicity that enhances the US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s public seismic catalog with four times the number of earthquakes, which were then grouped by waveform similarity. Analysis of subtle delays in the timing of arrivals of scattered waves between pairs of earthquakes in this catalog yields a history of small changes in the shallow seismic velocity structure of the volcano. Seismic velocities have been shown at other volcanoes to change during unrest and eruption. My results show a decrease in seismic velocity centered on the summit beginning in September 2022, corresponding to the onset of a vigorous precursory swarm of seismic activity and shallow inflation. During the eruption itself, I observe large changes due likely to dike opening along the northeast rift zone and deflation of the summit reservoir. However, seismic velocity changes associated with non-volcanic sources such as ground shaking from large earthquakes and meteorological influences at seasonal and diurnal time scales are also observed, and these dominate the velocity changes prior to the eruption. Proper accounting of these effects will be a requirement for use in real-time monitoring, and this work serves as a starting point in that endeavor for Mauna Loa.

Hawaii

Conceptual hydrogeologic framework and groundwater budget near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington

More than 1 million people live within the active model area (AMA) in the southeastern part of the lowlands surrounding Puget Sound, or Puget Lowland, Washington, and groundwater is the source for approximately one-half of their public, domestic, and irrigation water demands. The 887-square-mile AMA, located in King and Pierce Counties, represents the area of analysis for the conceptual hydrogeologic framework and numerical groundwater-flow models within the study area and includes the Puyallup River and Chambers-Clover Creek watersheds. To assess the potential hydrologic and anthropogenic impacts to groundwater and the connected surface-water resources, conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of groundwater flow were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center in close cooperation with 18 water-resource agencies and stakeholders. This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system and the development of a numerical model in the AMA. Included are descriptions of the geology and conceptual hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels and flow directions, groundwater recharge and discharge, numerical groundwater-flow model construction and results, and model limitations. The study area encompasses the western part of Pierce County and the southwestern part of King County, Washington. The study area extends south to the Nisqually River, southwest to Tanwax Creek, northeast to the Green River, and north through the valley near Auburn and adjacent uplands. It is bounded on the east by foothills of the Cascade Range, and on the northwest by Puget Sound.

Washington

Extremophile hotspots linked to containerized industrial waste dumping in a deep-sea basin

Decaying barrels on the seafloor linked to DDT contamination have raised concerns about the public health implications of decades old industrial waste dumped off the coast of Los Angeles. To explore their contents, we collected sediment cores perpendicular to five deep-sea barrels. The concentration of DDT and its breakdown products were highly elevated relative to control sites yet did not vary with distance from the barrels, suggesting that they were not associated with the contamination. Sediment cores collected through white halos surrounding three barrels were enriched in calcite and had elevated pH. The associated microbial communities were low diversity and dominated by alkalophilic bacteria with metagenome-assembled genomes adapted to high pH. A solid concretion sampled between a white halo and barrel was composed of brucite, a magnesium hydroxide mineral that forms at high pH. Based on these findings, we postulate that leakage of containerized alkaline waste triggered the formation of mineral concretions that are slowly dissolving and raising the pH of the surrounding sediment pore water. This selects for taxa adapted to extreme alkalinity and drives the precipitation of “anthropogenic” carbonates forming white halos, which serve as a visual identifier of barrels that contained alkaline waste. Remarkably, containerized alkaline waste discarded >50 years ago represents a persistent pollutant creating localized mineral formations and microbial communities that resemble those observed at some hydrothermal systems. These formations were observed at one-third of the visually identified barrels in the San Pedro Basin and have unforeseen, long-term consequences for benthic communities in the region.

California

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic energy storage capacity—Natural gas storage in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs

The need for energy storage, particularly underground, where capacity and duration may far exceed battery storage technologies, is especially relevant given the increasing demands for reliable power alongside the development of intermittent renewable electricity sources. Geologic energy storage facilities already exist, and expanded use would enable storing gases such as methane and hydrogen. In 2018, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, “Future Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program,” recommended that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prioritize assessing underground energy storage in geologic formations in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has since developed a methodology for assessing natural gas storage capacities in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs on a national scale. The methodology introduced in this report prescribes three approaches for calculating gas storage capacity. This methodology relies on the availability of input data, including cumulative hydrocarbon production records, reservoir petrophysical properties, and reservoir pressure data. Assessment inputs can be obtained from public, State-level databases and propriety national-scale databases, although the use of analogs could be warranted for estimating input parameters. Probabilistic assessment results are aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. The steps defined in this report are demonstrated on the Michigan Basin Province, which includes the Mississippian Sandstone Gas Play and the Clinton Structural Play. This methodology could be used to systematically and consistently assess hydrocarbon plays and provinces for natural gas storage capacity across the United States.

Michigan

The distribution of bromide in water in the Floridan aquifer system, Duval County, northeastern Florida

Although Duval County, Florida, has ample ground-water resources for public supply, the potential exists for a problem with excessive disinfectant by-products. These disinfectant by-products result from the treatment of raw water containing low concentrations of bromide and naturally occurring organic compounds. Because of this potential problem, the relation of bromide concentrations to aquifer tapped, well location and depth, and chemical characteristics of water in the Floridan aquifer system underlying Duval County were studied to determine if these relations could be applied to delineate water with low-bromide concentrations for future supplies. In 1992, water samples from 106 wells that tap the Floridan aquifer system were analyzed for bromide and major dissolved constituents. A comparison of bromide concentrations from the 1992 sampling with data from earlier studies (1979-80) indicates that higher bromide concentrations were detected during the earlier studies. The difference between the old and new data is probably because of a change in analytical methodology in the analysis of samples. Bromide concentrations exceeded the detection limit (0.10 milligrams per liter) in water from 28 of the 106 wells (26 percent) sampled in 1992. The maximum concentration was 0.56 milligrams per liter. There were no relations between bromide and major dissolved constituents, well depth, or aquifer tapped that would be useful for determining bromide concentrations. Areal patterns of bromide occurrence are not clearly defined, but areas with relatively high bromide concentrations tend to be located in a triangular area near the community of Sunbeam, Florida, and along the St. Johns River throughout Duval County.

Florida

Potential corrosivity of untreated groundwater in Louisiana

Corrosive groundwater can cause lead, copper, and other metals to leach from pipes and plumbing fixtures in water distribution systems. Metals, if ingested, could lead to serious health implications to the nearly 2.9 million people in Louisiana who obtain their drinking water from groundwater sources. Four indices—the Langelier Saturation Index (LSI), Ryznar Stability Index (RSI), Puckorius Scaling Index (PSI), and the Potential to Promote Galvanic Corrosion (PPGC)—in addition to an analysis which normalized the results from the existing indices, the Combined Index (CI), were used to assess the corrosivity of groundwater in Louisiana and identify areas within eight major aquifers and aquifer systems with moderate to high corrosivity potential. The purpose of this study is to provide State and local governments, public water system managers, and the nearly 500,000 private well owners in Louisiana with information needed to manage drinking-water supplies and mitigate potential health risks related to leaching of metals from water pipes and fixtures. The average scores of untreated groundwater samples from approximately 375 wells by index are as follows: LSI, −1.28; RSI, 9.78; PSI, 9.34; and CI, 4.14. The PPGC does not produce a numerical score, but the total percentage of class counts can be used to assign a classification; overall, samples in Louisiana were classified as significant concern. The percentages of groundwater samples from wells classified as potentially corrosive, by index, are as follows: LSI, 53 percent; RSI, 94 percent; PSI, 81 percent; PPGC, 98 percent; and CI, 81 percent. The percentages of samples classified as indeterminate, by index, are as follows: LSI, 46 percent; RSI, 5 percent; PSI, 12 percent; PPGC, 0 percent; and CI, 18 percent.

Louisiana

Lessons in business recovery following the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, Türkiye informed by women entrepreneurs

On 6 February 2023, Southern Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes, directly affecting over 14 million people in 11 cities, causing more than 50,000 deaths and the destruction of more than 800,000 buildings. This article goes beyond the physical damage imposed by the catastrophe to discuss the effects of the earthquakes on the operations of women-owned businesses. The mixed-method study with entrepreneurs belonging to a women’s business association operating in a moderately disrupted part of the region explores their struggles and recovery expectations. Thirty-five questionnaires were analyzed to identify the reasons for business closure, challenges, and needs faced in the post-disaster period and their recovery strategies. In addition, 23 entrepreneurs participated in roundtable discussions to provide a broader context to their responses to survey topics as well as lessons learned. Across both the survey and roundtables, while many respondents reported minor physical damage to their building, they also experienced financial and personal challenges from disruption to equipment, infrastructure, services, supply chains, institutional decisions, employee well-being, and customer base. Many used their business resources and personal savings to assist employees and others in the community. The women entrepreneurs often felt their recovery needs were ignored by government and private relief organizations and encountered barriers to receiving assistance from public and private institutions. Organizing together as women in business, even informally, provided mutual support during the crisis and recovery periods and catalyzed their role in support of their communities. The results illuminate functional community recovery as a balance of recovery of built infrastructure functionality and recovery of the broader social and economic fabric of the community.

southern Turkey

Surface variable‐based machine learning for scalable arsenic prediction in undersampled areas

In the United States, private wells are not federally regulated, and many households do not test for Arsenic (As). Chronic exposure is linked with multiple health outcomes, and risk can change sharply over short distances and with well depth. Coarse maps or sparse sampling often miss exceedances. Most existing models operate at ∼1 km resolution and use groundwater chemistry or detailed geologic logs, which limits their use in undersampled areas where improved guidance is most needed. We overcome these limitations by developing a machine learning model for Minnesota, USA, that predicts As exposure risk using only surficial variables from remote sensing and global data sets. Variables related to surface water hydrology and geomorphology are selected based on mechanistic links that control redox conditions and As mobilization. Local training was essential, and surficial geology variables that are more sensitive to local conditions were needed to maximize model accuracy. The resulting complete model was sufficiently sensitive to generate accurate and detailed risk maps and depth profiles of As concentrations above the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level. Accuracy depended on local training data density. We identified a training data density of 0.07 wells/km 2 as a practical target for stable county-level performance. Maps of exceedance probabilities highlight priority areas for testing that are particularly important in rural communities that have received less sampling. These results support public health action by guiding where to install wells and where to test them, how much new sampling is needed, and where treatment outreach is most urgent.

Minnesota

Meet the people where they are: Assessing user needs for aftershock forecast products in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States

Aftershock forecasts can help communities reduce their seismic risk by conveying how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks and their corresponding ground shaking evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate such information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual products can serve multiple user groups, we held workshops with members of several professions, including emergency managers, engineers, critical infrastructure operators, public health specialists, science communicators, and more. We conducted these workshops in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States to understand which forecast products may be effective across different countries. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit the types of aftershock forecast information that would support decisions in their respective roles and how this information would optimally be displayed. Maps of shaking hazards were frequently requested across all professions and countries, even for dissimilar forecast uses. The design of these maps, and other product needs, were differentiated by profession, country and other factors. Other forecast products, including those showing forecasts about the magnitudes and time periods of future aftershocks, also served a variety of users, but for different types of decisions. We found a greater variation in user needs by profession than by country, and that user needs also vary with time, communication channel and other contextual factors. We discuss practical implications for user-centered visual communication of operational aftershock forecasts.

International Journal for Disaster Risk Reduction