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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS1978

Calibration of a simple oilspill trajectory model using the Argo Merchant spill

An oil spill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative envionmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrence, likely paths of the spills, and locations in space and time of such objects as recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the proposed lease area. This risk is compared to the existing oilspill risk from existing leases in the area. The analysis implicityly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups. (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

A decision-analytical framework for developing harvest regulations

The development of harvest regulations for fish or wildlife is a complex decision that needs to weigh multiple objectives, consider a set of alternative regulatory options, integrate scientific understanding about the population dynamics of the harvested species as well as the human response to regulations, account for uncertainty, and provide an avenue for feedback from monitoring programs. The author describes how the field of decision analysis provides a framework for structuring such decisions and tools for navigating the components. At the center of any harvest management endeavor is a set of objectives that may include providing harvest opportunity, conserving the harvested population long into the future, and satisfying hunters, anglers, or trappers; tools from multi-criteria decision analysis are useful in finding the right balance among competing objectives. The population dynamics of harvested populations are often stochastic; tools from risk analysis and dynamic optimization can be used to find state-dependent policies that manage variation. Finally, harvest regulations are often set in the face of uncertainty; value-of-information methods can be used to evaluate the importance of that uncertainty, and adaptive management methods can be used to reduce it.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2011

Flying over an infected landscape: Distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 risk in South Asia and satellite tracking of wild waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May,June,July 2009 in China(Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl.

EcoHealth↗
USGS2009

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS1978

Risk analyses for a water-supply system; Occoquan Reservoir, Fairfax and Prince William counties, Virginia

This report demonstrates two techniques for evaluating risks in the operation of a water-supply system. Both rely on reconstructed historical streamflow data to develop estimates of the probabilities of certain specific events occurring in the future. These techniques are applied to the Occoquan Reservoir which was experiencing an unprecedented low level of storage in the autumn of 1977. The two techniques are used respectively to evaluate the overall adequacy of the existing reservoir and to evaluate the risks in the 1977 crisis. In the first technique, the general risk analysis model (GRAM), simulations of the reservoir's contents are carried out under a set of assumptions about withdrawal rates and emergency procedures. The results of the GRAM simulation for the Occoquan Reservoir are in the form of estimates of the probabilities that in any year certain emergency procedures will have to be invoked. These estimates are given for a range of rates of withdrawals and for four different stages of emergency actions. Also given are the estimated probabilities of entering emergency conditions in one year given that an emergency had occurred in the previous year. Due to the year-to-year persistence of low flows, these latter (conditional) probabilities are higher than the former (marginal) probabilities. The second technique used is position analysis. In this procedure probability distributions of future storages are estimated under existing storage conditions and an assumed rate of withdrawal from the reservoir. The position analysis which was initialized at the October 1, 1977, conditions indicates that the probability of entering a Stage III emergency (the prohibition of all uses of water nonessential to life, health, and safety) in the autumn of 1977 or winter of 1978 was 10 percent at that time. However, with a reduction in water use by 8 million gallons per day, this probability would have fallen to 4 percent. If a long reconstructed historical streamflow record is available to a water supply agency, then the agency will have the capability to undertake its own risk analyses. It can carry out comparisons of alternative operating policies by using techniques such as GRAM. It can also evaluate short-term risk of different plans of operation during crisis situations by using position analysis.

Virginia↗
USGS2025

A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2008

A multiscale analysis of nest predation on Least Bell's Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus )

We examined variables influencing nest predation on the endangered Least Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at three spatial scales to determine what nest-site, habitat, or landscape characteristics affect the likelihood of nest predation and to determine the spatial distribution of predation risk and the variables influencing it. We used MARK to calculate daily survival rates of Least Bell's Vireo nests and applied an information-theoretic approach to evaluate support for logistic regression models of the effect of habitat variables on predation risk. Analysis of data for 195 nests collected during 1999 and 2000 at the San Luis Rey River and Pilgrim Creek in southern California revealed no effect of fine-scale factors, including nest height, supporting plant species, and three measures of nest concealment, on the likelihood of predation. At the intermediate scale, distances to the riparian-habitat edge and to internal gaps in the canopy were unrelated to nest survival. Surrounding land-use type was a poor predictor of predation risk, with the exception of proximity to golf course–park habitat and wetland. Nests within 400 m of golf course–park were only 20% as likely to avoid predation as nests >400 m from this habitat, and nests near wetland were more than twice as likely to survive as nests distant from wetland. Spatially, predation appeared to be random throughout the site, with localized clustering evident in the vicinity of golf course–park and wetland. Our results suggest that the landscape may be the most appropriate scale at which to manage nest predation in this system.

The Auk↗
USGS2003

Well-Production Data and Gas-Reservoir Heterogeneity -- Reserve Growth Applications

Oil and gas well production parameters, including peakmonthly production (PMP), peak-consecutive-twelve month production (PYP), and cumulative production (CP), are tested as tools to quantify and understand the heterogeneity of reservoirs in fields where current monthly production is 10 percent or less of PMP. Variation coefficients, defined as VC= (F5-F95)/F50, where F5, F95, and F50 are the 5th, 95th, and 50th (median) fractiles of a probability distribution, are calculated for peak and cumulative production and examined with respect to internal consistency, type of production parameter, conventional versus unconventional accumulations, and reservoir depth. Well-production data for this study were compiled for 69 oil and gas fields in the Lower Pennsylvanian Morrow Formation of the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma. Of these, 47 fields represent production from marine clastic facies. The Morrow data were supplemented by data from the Upper Cambrian and Lower Ordovician Arbuckle Group, Middle Ordovician Simpson Group, Middle Pennsylvanian Atoka Formation, and Silurian and Lower Devonian Hunton Group of the Anadarko Basin, one large gas field in Upper Cretaceous reservoirs of north-central Montana (Bowdoin field), and three areas of the Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian Bakken Formation continuous-type (unconventional) oil accumulation in the Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana. Production parameters (PMP, PYP, and CP) measure the net result of complex geologic, engineering, and economic processes. Our fundamental hypothesis is that well-production data provide information about subsurface heterogeneity in older fields that would be impossible to obtain using geologic techniques with smaller measurement scales such as petrographic, core, and well-log analysis. Results such as these indicate that quantitative measures of production rates and production volumes of wells, expressed as dimensionless variation coefficients, are potentially valuable tools for documenting reservoir heterogeneity in older fields for field redevelopment and risk analysis.

Bulletin↗
USGS2014

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Respiratory transmission of an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from a harbour seal

The ongoing human H7N9 influenza infections highlight the threat of emerging avian influenza viruses. In 2011, an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from moribund New England harbour seals was shown to have naturally acquired mutations known to increase the transmissibility of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses. To elucidate the potential human health threat, here we evaluate a panel of avian H3N8 viruses and find that the harbour seal virus displays increased affinity for mammalian receptors, transmits via respiratory droplets in ferrets and replicates in human lung cells. Analysis of a panel of human sera for H3N8 neutralizing antibodies suggests that there is no population-wide immunity to these viruses. The prevalence of H3N8 viruses in birds and multiple mammalian species including recent isolations from pigs and evidence that it was a past human pandemic virus make the need for surveillance and risk analysis of these viruses of public health importance.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2018

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Risk Map

The Global Earthquake Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalized by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2 due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalized metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Earthquake Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post­ earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible limitations in the model, regions portrayed with low risk may experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, which will be updated when new datasets and models become available. Updated versions of the hazard, exposure, and average annual losses will be released on a regular basis. Additional metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem.

Report↗
USGS2018

Advances in sensitivity analysis of uncertainty to changes in sampling density when modeling spatially correlated attributes

A comparative analysis of distance methods, kriging and stochastic simulation is conducted for evaluating their capabilities for predicting fluctuations in uncertainty due to changes in spatially correlated samples. It is concluded that distance methods lack the most basic capabilities to assess reliability despite their wide acceptance. In contrast, kriging and stochastic simulation offer significant improvements by considering probabilistic formulations that provide a basis on which uncertainty can be estimated in a way consistent with practices widely accepted in risk analysis. Additionally, using real thickness data of a coal bed, it is confirmed once more that stochastic simulation outperforms kriging.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Risk at the margins: A natural hazards perspective on the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk analysis is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent armed conflict in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, self-settling throughout the country through urban integration and informal encampment due to Lebanon's prohibition of formal refugee camps. The Syrian-Lebanon refugee crisis coincides with the recent reexamination of the established aid practice of camp-based resettlement, focused on issues of aid efficacy, security, and human dignity but lacking an environmental hazards perspective. In light of these issues, we quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon, finding a 75% increase in landslide risk since the start of the Syrian crisis. The risk is highest in the debris flow-prone mountains of central and northeastern Lebanon. Additionally, Syrian refugees settled in informal camps experience 9–11 times greater risk then urban populations due to sub-standard shelter, suggesting that urban rather than camp-based resettlement policies are preferable from an environmental-hazards perspective.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2019

Assessing potential effects of highway and urban runoff on receiving streams in total maximum daily load watersheds in Oregon using the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to simulate stormwater quality. To assess the effects of runoff, SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of pre-storm streamflow, stormflow, highway runoff, event mean concentrations (EMCs) and stormwater constituent loads from a site of interest. In addition, SELDM can be used to assess the effects of stormwater Best Management Practices (BMPs), which are designed to mitigate the adverse effects of runoff into a waterbody. Adverse effects of stormwater on receiving waters are one of the greatest unsolved water-quality problems Nationwide. State DOTs, municipalities, Federal facilities, and private property owners who manage impervious surfaces need information about the potential magnitude of their contributions and the potential effectiveness of methods to mitigate the adverse effects of runoff. Because the efficacy of at-site controls are limited, information about the potential effectiveness of alternative strategies is needed. The USGS, in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), conducted a study to research methods in which SELDM can be used to enhance the efficiency of ODOT’s stormwater program, support the development of a stormwater banking program, and meet environmental goals. Results can be used to develop a strategic, systems-level approach to stormwater management by considering entire watersheds instead of individual road crossings. Two watersheds, Bear Creek and Mill Creek, in western Oregon were selected for analysis. Within each watershed, seven road crossings were selected for demonstrating the utility of SELDM in nested basins. Precipitation statistics, pre-storm streamflow, runoff coefficients, and hydrograph recession factors were calculated for each location and used in SELDM to simulate flow, water-quality concentrations, and constituent loads in the upstream basin, from the highway (or developed area), and downstream from the road crossing. Three water-quality constituents were selected for modeling: suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), total phosphorus (TP), and total copper (TCu). Using water-quality transport curves, the relations between streamflow and SSC and between streamflow and TP were simulated. Concentrations of TCu were simulated by configuring a linear relation between SSC and TCu. A generic BMP was simulated using the median treatment statistics for flow reductions, hydrograph extensions, concentration reductions, and minimum irreducible concentrations from nine BMP categories with data from the 2012 International BMP database. Five simulation scenarios were modeled for demonstrative purposes. These simulations were used to evaluate potential effects of different watershed properties, water-quality inputs, and stormwater mitigation measures. Instream EMCs were compared to hypothetical water-quality criteria for suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and total copper to demonstrate the concept of water-quality risk analysis. For all five scenarios, it was assumed that highway runoff concentrations were independent of location or average annual daily traffic. These five scenarios are as follows: • Simulation Scenario 1—Natural Conditions (hereafter Simulation Scenario 1) represents conditions in an undeveloped watershed. This scenario demonstrates that the strategic placement of a hypothetical road crossing within a watershed could be used to avoid exceeding water-quality standards of TP and SSC, but that no location choice results in meeting TCu standards. Implementation of BMP had the most pronounced effects on downstream water-quality constituent EMCs at road crossings with the highest ratio of highway catchment area to upstream drainage area, but the largest effect of BMP treatment on mean annual load is based on highway catchment area alone. • Simulation Scenario 2—Current Conditions (hereafter Simulation Scenario 2) represents current watershed conditions, where all developed area upstream from the road crossing was modeled as a highway and combined with the undeveloped part of the upstream drainage area (scenario 2A) and where the output from scenario 2A is used for the upstream area (developed area and the undeveloped area), and where the road crossing is added as usual (scenario 2B). Scenario 2 results indicate that attaining water-quality standards is more difficult with upstream developed areas. Specific road-crossing sites can be selected to achieve the fewest water-quality exceedances per year, but water-quality targets are not met without BMP implementation, and in some instances are not achievable even with BMP implementation. Results from this scenario also serve to quantify the upper limit of constituent reduction if funding were available to implement BMPs to large areas of development, and to quantify how much area would need BMP implementation to achieve water-quality targets. • Simulation Scenario 3—Alternative Road Layouts (hereafter Simulation Scenario 3) was designed to assess the sensitivity of SELDM to various road layouts. In this scenario, different highway configurations were superimposed at one road crossing. Results indicate that downstream waterquality constituent EMCs did not exhibit much variation, but annual water-quality constituent loads varied considerably. • Simulation Scenario 4—Varying Road Width (hereafter Simulation Scenario 4) was designed to assess the sensitivity of SELDM to road width. Similar to scenario 3, the results indicate little variation in downstream water-quality constituent EMCs, but annual water-quality constituent loads increased in proportion to road width. • Simulation scenario 5—Changes to Impervious Area (hereafter Simulation Scenario 5) was designed to investigate the effects of changing amounts of imperviousness upstream from the road crossing. Results indicate that the downstream water-quality constituent EMCs are highly correlated with the percentage of impervious area upstream.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Have recent earthquakes exposed flaws in or misunderstandings of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?

In a recent Opinion piece in these pages, Stein et al. (2011) offer a remarkable indictment of the methods, models, and results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The principal object of their concern is the PSHA map for Japan released by the Japan Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), which is reproduced by Stein et al. (2011) as their Figure 1 and also here as our Figure 1. It shows the probability of exceedance (also referred to as the “hazard”) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity 6–lower (JMA 6–) in Japan for the 30-year period beginning in January 2010. JMA 6– is an earthquake-damage intensity measure that is associated with fairly strong ground motion that can be damaging to well-built structures and is potentially destructive to poor construction (HERP, 2005, appendix 5). Reiterating Geller (2011, p. 408), Stein et al. (2011, p. 623) have this to say about Figure 1: The regions assessed as most dangerous are the zones of three hypothetical “scenario earthquakes” (Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai; see map). However, since 1979, earthquakes that caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan actually occurred in places assigned a relatively low probability. This discrepancy—the latest in a string of negative results for the characteristic model and its cousin the seismic-gap model—strongly suggest that the hazard map and the methods used to produce it are flawed and should be discarded. Given the central role that PSHA now plays in seismic risk analysis, performance-based engineering, and design-basis ground motions, discarding PSHA would have important consequences. We are not persuaded by the arguments of Geller (2011) and Stein et al. (2011) for doing so because important misunderstandings about PSHA seem to have conditioned them. In the quotation above, for example, they have confused important differences between earthquake-occurrence observations and ground-motion hazard calculations.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2018

Characterization of stormwater runoff from bridge decks in eastern Massachusetts, 2014–16

The quality of stormwater runoff from bridge decks (hereafter referred to as “bridge-deck runoff”) was characterized in a field study from August 2014 through August 2016 in which concentrations of suspended sediment (SS) and total nutrients were monitored. These new data were collected to supplement existing highway-runoff data collected in Massachusetts which were deficient in bridge-deck runoff concentration data. Monitoring stations were installed at three bridges maintained by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation in eastern Massachusetts (State Route 2A in the city of Boston, Interstate 90 in the town of Weston, and State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village in the city of Worcester). The bridges had annual average daily traffic volumes from 21,200 to 124,000 vehicles per day; the land use surrounding the monitoring stations was 25 to 67 percent impervious. Automatic-monitoring techniques were used to collect more than 160 flow-proportional composite samples of bridge-deck runoff. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of SS, loss on ignition of suspended solids (LOI), particulate carbon (PC), total phosphorus (TP), total dissolved nitrogen (DN), and particulate nitrogen (PN). The distribution of particle size of SS also was determined for composite samples. Samples of bridge-deck runoff were collected year round during rain, mixed precipitation, and snowmelt runoff and with different dry antecedent periods throughout the 2-year sampling period. At the three bridge-deck-monitoring stations, median concentrations of SS in composite samples of bridge-deck runoff ranged from 1,490 to 2,020 milligrams per liter (mg/L); however, the range of SS in individual composites was vast at 44 to 142,000 mg/L. Median concentrations of SS were similar in composite samples collected from the State Route 2A and Interstate 90 bridge (2,010 and 2,020 mg/L, respectively), and lowest at the State Route 20 bridge (1,490 mg/L). Concentrations of coarse sediment (greater than 0.25 millimeters in diameter) dominated the SS matrix by more than an order of magnitude. Concentrations of LOI and PC in composite samples ranged from 15 to 1,740 mg/L and 6.68 to 1,360 mg/L, respectively, and generally represented less than 10 and 3 percent of the median mass of SS, respectively. Concentrations of TP in composite samples ranged from 0.09 to 7.02 mg/L; median concentrations of TP ranged from 0.505 to 0.69 mg/L and were highest on the bridge on State Route 2A in Boston. Concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) (sum DN and PN) in composite samples were variable (0.36 to 29 mg/L). Median DN (0.64 to 0.90 mg/L) concentrations generally represented about 40 percent of the TN concentration at each bridge and were similar to annual volume-weighted mean concentrations of nitrogen in precipitation in Massachusetts. Nonparametric statistical methods were used to test for differences between sample constituent concentrations among the three bridges. These results indicated that there are no statistically significant differences for concentrations of SS, LOI, PC, and TP among the three bridges (one-way analysis of variance test on rank-transformed data, 95-percent confidence level). Test results for concentrations of TN in composite samples indicated that concentrations of TN collected on State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village were significantly higher than those concentrations collected on State Route 2A in Boston and Interstate 90 near Weston. Median concentrations of TN were about 93 and 55 percent lower at State Route 2A and at Interstate 90, respectively, compared to the median concentrations of TN at State Route 20. Samples of sediment were collected from five fixed locations on each bridge on three occasions during dry weather to calculate semiquantitative distributions of sediment yields on the bridge surface relative to the monitoring location. Mean yields of bridge-deck sediment during this study for State Route 2A in Boston, Interstate 90 near Weston, and State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village were 1,500, 250, and 5,700 pounds per curb-mile, respectively. Sediment yields at each sampling location varied widely (26 to 25,000 pounds per curb-mile) but were similar to yields reported elsewhere in Massachusetts and the United States. Yields calculated for each sampling location indicated that the sediment was not evenly distributed across each bridge in this study for plausible reasons such as bridge slope, vehicular tracking, and bridge deterioration. Bridge-deck sediment quality was largely affected by the distribution of sediment particle size. Concentrations of TP in the fine sediment-size fraction (less than 0.0625 millimeter in diameter) of samples of bridge-deck sediment were about 6 times greater than in the coarse size fraction. Concentrations for many total-recoverable metals were 2 to 17 times greater in the fine size fraction compared to concentrations in the coarse size fraction (greater than or equal to 0.25 millimeter in diameter), and concentrations of total-recoverable copper and lead in the fine size fraction were 2 to 65 times higher compared to concentrations in the intermediate (greater than or equal to 0.0625 to 0.25 millimeter in diameter) or the coarse size fraction. However, the proportion of sediment particles less than 0.0625 millimeter in diameter in composite samples of bridge-deck runoff was small (median values range from 4 to 8 percent at each bridge) compared to the larger sediment particle-size mass. As a result, more than 50 percent of the sediment-associated TP, aluminum, chromium, manganese, and nickel was estimated to be associated with the coarse size fraction of the SS load. In contrast, about 95 percent of the estimated sediment-associated copper concentration was associated with the fine size fraction of the SS load. Version 1.0.2 of the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model was used to simulate long-term (29–30-year) concentrations and annual yields of SS, TP, and TN in bridge-deck runoff and in discharges from a hypothetical stormwater treatment best-management practice structure. Three methods (traditional statistics, robust statistics, and L-moments) were used to calculate statistics for stochastic simulations because the high variability in measured concentration values during the field study resulted in extreme simulated concentrations. Statistics of each dataset, including the average, standard deviation, and skew of the common (base 10) logarithms, for each of the three bridges, and for a lumped dataset, were calculated and used for simulations; statistics representing the median of statistics calculated for the three bridges also were used for simulations. These median statistics were selected for the interpretive simulations so that the simulations could be used to estimate concentrations and yields from other, unmonitored bridges in Massachusetts. Comparisons of the standard and robust statistics indicated that simulation results with either method would be similar, which indicated that the large variability in simulated results was not caused by a few outliers. Comparison to statistics calculated by the L-moments methods indicated that L-moments do not produce extreme concentrations; however, they also do not produce results that represent the bulk of concentration data. The runoff-quality risk analysis indicated that bridge-deck runoff would exceed discharge standards commonly used for large, advanced wastewater treatment plants, but that commonly used stormwater best-management practices may reduce the percentage of exceedances by one-half. Results of simulations indicated that long-term average yields of TN, TP, and SS may be about 21.4, 6.44, and 40,600 pounds per acre per year, respectively. These yields are about 1.3, 3.4, and 16 times simulated ultra-urban highway yields in Massachusetts; however, simulations indicated that use of a best-management practice structure to treat bridge-deck runoff may reduce discharge yields to about 10, 2.8, and 4,300, pounds per acre per year, respectively.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2004

Differential parasitism of seed-feeding Cydia (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by native and alien wasp species relative to elevation in subalpine Sophora (Fabaceae) forests on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

Alien parasitic wasps, including accidental introductions and purposefully released biological control agents, have been implicated in the decline of native Hawaiian Lepidoptera. Understanding the potential impacts of alien wasps requires knowledge of ecological parameters that influence parasitism rates for species in their new environment. Sophora seed-feeding Cydia spp. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were surveyed for larval parasitoids to determine how native and alien wasps are partitioned over an elevation gradient (2200-2800 m) on Hawaii Island, Hawaii. Parasitism rate of native Euderus metallicus (Eulophidae) increased with increased elevation, while parasitism rate by immigrant Calliephialtes grapholithae (Ichneumonidae) decreased. Parasitism by Pristomerus hawaiiensis (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, also decreased with increased elevation. Two other species, Diadegma blackburni (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, and Brasema cushmani (Eupelmidae), a purposefully introduced biological control agent for pepper weevil, did not vary significantly with elevation. Results are contrasted with a previous study of this system with implications for the conservation of an endangered bird species that feed on Cydia larvae. Interpretation of results is hindered by lack of knowledge of autecology of moths and wasps, origins, phylogeny, systematics, competitive ability, and physiological limitations of each wasp species. These factors should be incorporated into risk analysis for biological control introductions and invasive species programs. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Journal of Insect Conservation↗