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This Annual Report summarizes results of grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) monitoring and research conducted in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) by the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) during 2014. The report also contains a summary of grizzly bear management actions to address conflict situations.
The Annual Brome Adaptive Management (ABAM) project is a consortium of seven parks in the Northern Great Plains working together to better understand how to control invasive annual grasses (including Bromus species) through an adaptive management approach. This approach is supported by a quantitative model that uses current data from standardized vegetation monitoring plots in all seven parks to annually update the model's parameters and predictions regarding the effects of different management actions on invasive annual grasses and other components of the mixed-grass prairie plant community. This updating is called "learning." Currently, the ABAM model has little information about the effects of the herbicide indaziflam, applied alone or together with the herbicide imazapic, at different times during the growing season, on target invasive annual grasses and other components of the vegetation. The purpose of this study is to increase the amount of information about this herbicide and therefore accelerate the rate of learning accomplished in the adaptive management cycle.
Introduction Volcanic unrest can trigger appreciable change to surface waters such as streams, springs, and volcanic lakes. Magma degassing produces gases and soluble salts that are absorbed into groundwater that feeds streams and lakes. As magma ascends, the amount of heat and degassing will increase, and so will any related geochemical and thermal signal. Subsurface magma movement can cause pressurization that alters hydrostatic head and may induce groundwater discharge. Fluid-pressure changes have been linked to distal volcano-tectonic earthquakes (White and McCausland, 2016; Coulon and others, 2017) and phreatic eruptions (for example, Yamaoka and others, 2016). Clearly, changes in groundwater and surface waters are both indicators of unrest and clues to how and where magma is rising toward the surface. Where possible, it is prudent to incorporate real-time hydrologic data into multiparameter monitoring of restless volcanoes. Hydrologic dynamics can also be tracked by changes in groundwater levels that are commonly measured in shallow boreholes (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume, on boreholes; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024). Although inferred to be common, relatively few volcano-hydrology anomalies are well documented, and many are essentially anecdotal (Newhall and others, 2001), reflecting the fact that high-resolution time series remain rare. Extreme examples include the 2008 eruption of Nevado del Huila, Colombia, where relatively minor phreatomagmatic eruptions were accompanied by expulsion of as much as 300 million cubic meters of groundwater from fissures high on the volcano (Worni and others, 2011), generating large lahars. Substantial decreases in flow rate from springs about 8 kilometers from the summit of Mayon Volcano, Philippines, have been noted before most eruptions in the 20th century (Newhall and others, 2001). Stream monitoring at Redoubt Volcano in 2009 allowed Werner and others (2012) to recognize that groundwater was unable to absorb (or scrub) the high flux of volcanic gas and that a high CO 2 /SO 2 precursor signal had been evident for 5 months prior to the eruption. A key to better interpreting hydrologic anomalies—or even identifying them—is therefore obtaining adequate baseline data. Most hydrologic monitoring at U.S. volcanoes has been accomplished by intermittent sampling surveys with annual or less frequent sampling (for example, https://hotspringchem.wr.usgs.gov/index.php ). More frequent sampling, however, generally is needed to establish reliable baselines. A recent hydrologic and hydrothermal monitoring experiment at 25 sites and 10 of the 12 level 4 (very high threat) volcanoes in the U.S. portion of the Cascade Range demonstrated that there is sufficient temporal variability in hydrothermal fluxes, even during quiescent periods, that one-time measurements will commonly have limited interpretive value (Crankshaw and others, 2018). Thus, surveys are best augmented with data from streamgages (for example, Evans and others, 2004; Bergfeld and others, 2008). Streamflow (water discharge) data allow measured temperature and specific conductance to be converted to heat and solute mass fluxes, which could be insightful parameters for detecting anomalous activity (McCleskey and others, 2012). At the Yellowstone Caldera, long-term monitoring of river solutes has allowed calculation of the chloride flux, a proxy for heat discharge (Hurwitz and others, 2007; McCleskey and others, 2016) from the subsurface magma. This is readily accomplished because data from streamgages are continuously recorded and archived by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) (USGS, 2024). Similar studies on stratovolcanoes or shield volcanoes would be scientifically useful, and yet are logistically challenging, requiring streamgages on numerous radial drainages complemented by either frequent manual sampling or numerous deployments of equipment to measure water temperature and specific conductance as a proxy for water chemistry. Another challenge is that some volcanic areas, especially shield volcanoes, are characterized by near-surface porous rocks and soils, such that surface streams are rare and replaced by distant, dilute large-volume springs with only a trace of any original volcanically sourced water (Manga, 2001; Hurwitz and others, 2021). Volcanic lakes are worthy of special attention for monitoring efforts, as their temperature and composition can provide evidence of increased flux of volatile-rich fluids from below. Quantifying changes in volatile and heat release from magma can be simpler in lakes than for volcanoes with radial drainages and no major lakes. Moreover, volcanic lakes pose a range of hazards themselves, including phreatomagmatic eruptions, debris flows, flank collapse, tsunamis, and toxic gas release (Mastin and Witter, 2000; Delmelle and others, 2015; Manville, 2015; Rouwet and others, 2015)—hazards that have historically been responsible for substantial loss of life at many volcanoes worldwide (Manville, 2015). Catastrophic CO 2 release at Lake Nyos, Cameroon, in 1986 suffocated about 1,750 people and about 3,500 livestock and was probably triggered by a large landslide into the gas-saturated lake (Kling and others, 1987; Evans and others, 1993). Gas-charged springs in Soda Bay within Clear Lake (California) have caused almost a dozen deaths to bathers in the past hundred years (ABC News, 2000). A 2005 example of lake overturn and abundant gas release was documented at Mount Chiginagak in Alaska (Schaefer and others, 2008) but did not result in any human casualties. Although thermally stratified lakes, which promote trapping of exsolved magmatic gas, tend to develop in tropical regions, the phenomenon can also arise where salinity creates meromixis (a condition in which a lake does not mix completely), as occurs in Mono Lake, California (Jellison and Melack, 1993; Jellison and others, 1998). If magma erupts or flows into a lake, the interaction between hot magma and cold water can be explosive (Mastin and others, 2004; Zimanowski and others, 2015) and substantially expand the area affected by the eruption. Another hazard is the breaching of crater rims by landslides triggered by volcanic and (or) seismic activity. Under some circumstances, substantial volumes of water can be displaced, leading to large floods and lahars. Late Holocene lake flooding from Aniakchak Crater in the Alaska Peninsula (Waythomas, 2022) and from Paulina Lake in Newberry Crater, Oregon (Chitwood and Jensen, 2000), caused by the failure of outlet sills, testify to the substantial hazards at lake-filled calderas. Several volcanic systems in the United States host lakes known to receive heat and gas from underlying magma. These lakes vary widely in area, depth, and chemical composition. Lakes are present at level 4 volcanoes, including Crater Lake and Newberry Volcano in Oregon; Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming; Long Valley Caldera, Clear Lake volcanic field, Medicine Lake, and Salton Buttes in California; and Aniakchak Crater, Mount Katmai, Fisher Caldera, Mount Okmok, and Kaguyak Crater, among others, in Alaska. A water lake was present in Halemaʻumaʻu, the crater of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i (fig. F1), from October 2019 to December 2020. Level 3 volcanoes with lakes include Mono Lake volcanic field (Calif.), Mount Bachelor (Ore.), Ukinrek Maars and Mount Chiginagak (Alaska), and Soda Lake (Nevada). In addition, there are lakes at many levels 1 and 2 volcanoes. In the United States, there are no strongly acidic lakes that receive abundant input of magmatic gas, such as those found at Mount Ruapehu (New Zealand), Ijen and Kelud (Indonesia), and Poás (Costa Rica). Nevertheless, many contain fluids that provide clues to magmatic processes below. Since publication of a previous report on recommended instrumentation for volcano monitoring (Moran and others, 2008), continuous hydrologic monitoring has become increasingly feasible. However, changes in water pressure, temperature, and chemistry remain, in general, poorly studied phenomena at volcanoes (Sparks, 2003; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017). Recent efforts by the USGS have included the temporary study of Cascade Range volcanoes, which included frequent (15 minute to hourly) temporal sampling of temperature, depth, and conductivity (Crankshaw and others, 2018; Ingebritsen and Evans, 2019). At Yellowstone Caldera, many streamgages have now added thermistors and specific conductance sensors, allowing estimation of time-dependent chloride flux as a proxy for variations in subsurface heat flux (McCleskey and others, 2012, 2016). Efforts to better understand lakes have also accelerated, with bathymetric mapping and sampling carried out at several locations in the United States. Especially thorough work was done at Yellowstone Lake thanks to the Hydrothermal Dynamics of Yellowstone Lake (HD-YLAKE, https://hdylake.org ) project, funded primarily by the National Science Foundation. In addition to geophysical surveys and recovery of cores and other samples, HD-YLAKE investigations included remotely operated vehicle (ROV) investigations of hydrothermal vents on the lake floor (fig. F2). Data collected by the ROV provided a better understanding of the thermal and chemical influx from lake-bottom hydrothermal systems (Sohn and others, 2017). In this chapter, we focus on detecting changes in the chemistry, temperature, discharge, or water levels of streams, springs, and lakes that can be caused by seismicity, volumetric strains, or increases in gas flux associated with ascending magma. There is unavoidable overlap with other chapters of this report. Samples of water and gas can also be obtained in boreholes ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024), both shallow and deep. Gas monitoring ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–E, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062e.">chapter E , this volume; Lewicki and others, 2024) relies in part on samples from springs and wells, particularly where measurable gas plumes are absent. Water acts as a trigger and lubricant for landslides and sediment-rich floods, and so hydrology has obvious relevance for lahar monitoring, as discussed in of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–H, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062h. ">chapter H (this volume; Thelen and others, 2024). Shared situational awareness among scientists engaged in geophysical, gas, and hydrologic monitoring will improve overall understanding of the volcanic hazard.
Groundwater development, mainly for large-scale irrigation, has increased substantially in the Harney Basin of southeastern Oregon since 2010. Concurrently, some areas of the basin experienced groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet, and some shallow wells have gone dry. The Oregon Water Resources Department has limited new groundwater development in the basin until an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system is available. The groundwater resources report by Gingerich and others (2022, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2021–5103, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215103 ) provides that understanding. This report describes the development of a numerical groundwater-flow model that can be used as a tool to help improve that understanding. The Harney Basin Groundwater Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater-modeling software U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW 6) and associated Python pre- and post-processing routines. The groundwater model encompasses the entire 5,240-square-mile Harney Basin and adjacent areas and is calibrated to the hydrologic conditions from 1930 to 2018. The model has a uniform grid consisting of 78,064 nearly square cells, each covering 2,005 by 2,007 feet (about 92 acres) and has 10 layers (780,640 total cells) representing the vertical distribution of hydrogeologic units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicate that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge since about the mid-1980s, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 840,000 acre-feet and also indicated declines in groundwater evapotranspiration and spring and stream discharge. Model simulations show as much as 100 feet of groundwater-level decline in some areas and more than 40 feet of decline in widespread areas in recent decades. Model simulations are consistent with field observations of groundwater levels through time.
This report updates groundwater-storage and groundwater-level trends presented in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5060, in the Big Chino Subbasin, Yavapai County, Arizona. This earlier geophysical investigation of groundwater-storage change in the Big Chino Subbasin was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Prescott, the Town of Prescott Valley, and the Salt River Project from 2010 to 2017 to understand groundwater-level and groundwater-storage changes. Conclusions were based on precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, and repeat microgravity data; the latter is a direct measurement of groundwater-storage change. This report focuses on the southern part of the Big Chino Subbasin for water years 2018–2021. These more recent data show relatively small changes in groundwater storage, consistent with the earlier monitoring presented in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5060. In the Big Chino Water Ranch area, water levels have increased gradually owing to discontinued pumping for irrigation during summer months, and an in-channel recharge event in summer 2021. In the Paulden, Arizona, area, gradual water level declines have continued a downward trend that started in the 1990s. Seasonal variation is present in the Paulden area, with higher water levels in the winter months when pumping for irrigation and agricultural use is reduced. Two wells showed groundwater-level increases consistent with in-channel recharge in 2018 and 2021, whereas groundwater levels in a well screened in the deeper, confined to semi-confined carbonate aquifer showed no such discrete recharge events. In the area west of Big Chino Wash and east of the Juniper Mountains and Santa Maria Mountains, groundwater levels continued long-term declines, but storage changes were minimal.
Flood-frequency analysis provides the basis for flood risk estimates used by water-resource managers in land-use planning, and it informs the design of essential infrastructure such as bridges and culverts. Federal guidelines for flood-frequency analysis do not offer guidance on addressing changing climate and land-use conditions when estimating floods. However, failing to consider climatic and land-use changes that cause abrupt or gradual changes in flood regimes can result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. In response to concerns about changing flood regimes, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with nine State agencies (Illinois Department of Transportation, Iowa Department of Transportation, Michigan Department of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Missouri Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and Wisconsin Department of Transportation) began a study to examine variability and change in hydrology and climate and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage on flooding. The analyses of patterns and changes in hydrology and climate were reported in a multichapter Scientific Investigations Report, the findings of which are summarized in this U.S. Geological Survey Circular. Additional analyses documenting changes in seasonality of flooding and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage were completed and published as separate studies and are also summarized in this Circular. These studies provide extensive exploratory analysis of peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and climate data, setting the stage for advancements in flood-frequency analysis.
The Model R fluorimeter has been modified to increase its stability and sensitivity. The new instrument* is about ten times as sensitive as the original fluorimeter, but it can also be employed conveniently at a sensitivity level comparable to or less than that of the Model R fluorimeter. *The modified fluorimeter described here was developed in the latter half of 1948 and has since been in constant use in the laboratory for routine analysis. Although it is now being superseded to a large extent by a more recently developed transmission fluorimeter, the modified fluorimeter is a very useful tool for many types of analysis. (Fletcher, M. H., May, Irving, and Slavin, Morris, A transmission fluorimeter for use in the fluorimetric method of analysis for uranium: Trace Elements Investigations Report 104, August 1949.)
The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS.
Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow characteristics and other related information needed by water-resource managers to protect people and property from floods, plan and manage water-resource activities, and protect water quality. Streamflow characteristics provided by the USGS, such as peak-flow and low-flow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations, are frequently used by engineers, flood forecasters, land managers, biologists, and others to guide their everyday decisions. In addition to providing streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, the USGS also develops regional regression equations and drainage area-adjustment methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at locations on ungaged streams. Regional regression equations can be complex and often require users to determine several basin characteristics, which are physical and climatic characteristics of the stream and its drainage basin. Obtaining these basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged sites traditionally has been time consuming and subjective, and led to inconsistent results. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow and basin characteristics for USGS streamflow-gaging stations and user-selected locations on ungaged streams. The USGS, in cooperation with Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to develop a StreamStats application for Montana, compute streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, and develop regional regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Chapter A of this Scientific Investigations Report describes the Montana StreamStats application and the datasets, streamflow-gaging stations, streamflow characteristics, and regression equations (as described fully in Chapters B through G of this report) that are used for development of the StreamStats application for Montana.
Introduction Dynamic volcanic landscapes produce various changes at the surface of volcanic edifices. For example, rising magma can induce thermal emissions, formation of ground cracks, and variations in glacier and edifice morphology; volcanic deposits from eruptions can transform the land surface with tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, lava flows and domes, and lahars; and geomorphic changes from landslides and lahars can occur in the absence of unrest or eruption. The best way to detect these changes is with imagery obtained via satellite, aircraft (including unoccupied aircraft systems, or UAS), and ground-based imaging. Rapid advances in imaging technologies have been leveraged by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program to improve the ability to monitor volcanoes. To this end, the guidance outlined here provides a framework for tracking volcanic unrest and the emplacement and evolution of volcanic deposits, further elucidating the processes associated with volcanic eruptions. The techniques currently used include (1) various telemetered and non-telemetered cameras, (2) high-resolution ground-based optical (visible to short-wave infrared wavelengths) and thermal infrared photography, (3) satellite and airborne thermal, optical, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, and (4) light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from airborne and ground-based platforms. Given that similar or overlapping techniques are applied to meet the capabilities listed in this chapter, we first provide an overview of remote sensing techniques. The use of UAS in monitoring surface change is briefly mentioned in this chapter and described in more detail in the dedicated UAS chapter ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–L, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062l.">chapter L , this volume; Diefenbach, 2024).
Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.
In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay. Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft higher than the previously recorded period-of-record maximum. A comparison of peak storm-tide elevations to preliminary FEMA Coastal Flood Insurance Study flood elevations indicated that these areas experienced the highest recurrence intervals along the coast of New Jersey. Analysis showed peak storm-tide elevations exceeded the 100-year FEMA flood elevations in many parts of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties, and peak storm-tide elevations at many locations in Monmouth County exceeded the 500-year recurrence interval. A level 1 HAZUS (HAZards United States) analysis was done for the counties in New Jersey affected by flooding to estimate total building stock losses. The aggregated total building stock losses estimated by HAZUS for New Jersey, on the basis of the final inundation verified by USGS high-water marks, was almost $19 billion. A comparison of Hurricane Sandy with historic coastal storms showed that peak storm-tide elevations associated with Hurricane Sandy exceeded most of the previously documented elevations associated with the storms of December 1992, March 1962, September 1960, and September 1944 at many coastal communities in New Jersey. This scientific investigation report was prepared in cooperation with FEMA to document flood processes and flood damages resulting from this storm and to assist in future flood mitigation actions in New Jersey.
The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of culverts on stream connectivity and subsequent effects on fish. We conducted a structured search of published scientific literature to find information about (1) culvert design, installation, and degradation; (2) methods for analyzing culvert condition and quantifying stream connectivity; and (3) the effects of changes to stream connectivity on freshwater fish. We follow the organization first established in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5114, in which the report sections align with standard elements of NEPA analyses. We found that, while the effects of dams on stream biota are well documented, smaller barriers at road crossings, like culverts, are prevalent and collectively have a substantial effect on habitat connectivity. Individual culverts differ in the degree to which they impede the movement of aquatic organisms, and we documented methods to assess and estimate the permeability of a culvert, or the ability of aquatic organisms to pass through it. Finally, we outlined methods for using culvert location and permeability information to quantify connectivity in a watershed based on the Dendritic Connectivity Index. Studies have shown that channel constriction, perched outlets, and extreme flow velocities are some of the characteristics of culverts that may hinder aquatic organism passage. Culverts can serve as daily and seasonal barriers to fish, disrupting access to habitat and essential resources like cold water or overwintering refuges. Reduced connectivity can have population-level effects, leading to lower fish species richness and abundance in affected watersheds. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA documentation, as supplemental information, or as a general reference for literature about the effects of culverts on stream connectivity and freshwater fish.
The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of noise from oil and gas development on North American raptors, songbirds, and other small avian species. We conducted a structured search of published scientific literature to find information about noise levels produced during oil and gas development, methods for analyzing sound propagation, the effects of noise on avian species, and measures to reduce noise emissions. We follow the organization first established in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5114, in which the report sections align with standard elements of NEPA analyses. We found that oil and gas development is a common source of human-caused noise on public lands and includes noise sources such as heavy construction and drilling machinery, long-term production machinery, truck traffic, and aircraft. Common techniques for predicting potential noise include field data collection using a sound level meter, inference from previously published data, and sound propagation modeling. The effects of human-caused noise on songbirds are well researched, whereas, among raptors, only owl species have been well-studied in relation to noise. Several studies have established that noise can reduce owl hunting success because many owl species are heavily reliant on hearing prey when hunting. The effects of noise on songbirds depend on several factors. Typically, birds that rely on vocal communication for mating, predator detection, and spatial orientation, and that are less able to adjust the frequencies of their vocalizations, are more vulnerable to behavioral changes and decreased fitness in noisy areas. Techniques suggested in the literature for reducing noise emissions include artificial sound barriers, seasonal and daily timing restrictions, traffic control measures, and siting infrastructure to take advantage of natural sound barriers. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA documentation, as supplemental information, or as a general reference to find literature or identify gaps in the literature about the effects of noise from oil and gas development on raptors and songbirds.
This report documents development of a spatially explicit river and flood-plain classification to evaluate potential for cottonwood restoration along the Sharpe and Fort Randall segments of the Middle Missouri River. This project involved evaluating existing topographic, water-surface elevation, and soils data to determine if they were sufficient to create a classification similar to the Land Capability Potential Index (LCPI) developed by Jacobson and others (U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007–5256) and developing a geomorphically based classification to apply to evaluating restoration potential. Existing topographic, water-surface elevation, and soils data for the Middle Missouri River were not sufficient to replicate the LCPI. The 1/3-arc-second National Elevation Dataset delineated most of the topographic complexity and produced cumulative frequency distributions similar to a high-resolution 5-meter topographic dataset developed for the Lower Missouri River. However, lack of bathymetry in the National Elevation Dataset produces a potentially critical bias in evaluation of frequently flooded surfaces close to the river. High-resolution soils data alone were insufficient to replace the information content of the LCPI. In test reaches in the Lower Missouri River, soil drainage classes from the Soil Survey Geographic Database database correctly classified 0.8–98.9 percent of the flood-plain area at or below the 5-year return interval flood stage depending on state of channel incision; on average for river miles 423–811, soil drainage class correctly classified only 30.2 percent of the flood-plain area at or below the 5-year return interval flood stage. Lack of congruence between soil characteristics and present-day hydrology results from relatively rapid incision and aggradation of segments of the Missouri River resulting from impoundments and engineering. The most sparsely available data in the Middle Missouri River were water-surface elevations. Whereas hydraulically modeled water-surface elevations were available at 1.6-kilometer intervals in the Lower Missouri River, water-surface elevations in the Middle Missouri River had to be interpolated between streamflow-gaging stations spaced 3–116 kilometers. Lack of high-resolution water-surface elevation data precludes development of LCPI-like classification maps. An hierarchical river classification framework is proposed to provide structure for a multiscale river classification. The segment-scale classification presented in this report is deductive and based on presumed effects of dams, significant tributaries, and geological (and engineered) channel constraints. An inductive reach-scale classification, nested within the segment scale, is based on multivariate statistical clustering of geomorphic data collected at 500-meter intervals along the river. Cluster-based classifications delineate reaches of the river with similar channel and flood-plain geomorphology, and presumably, similar geomorphic and hydrologic processes. The dominant variables in the clustering process were channel width (Fort Randall) and valley width (Sharpe), followed by braiding index (both segments). Clusters with multithread and highly sinuous channels are likely to be associated with dynamic channel migration and deposition of fresh, bare sediment conducive to natural cottonwood germination. However, restoration potential within these reaches is likely to be mitigated by interaction of cottonwood life stages with the highly altered flow regime.
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences is the third volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after a magnitude-7 earthquake (mainshock) on the Hayward Fault and its aftershocks.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois, as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is mandated by a U.S. Supreme Court decree in order to monitor, and limit, the State of Illinois’ annual diversion of Great Lakes water through the manmade CSSC. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics reviews USGS streamgaging practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee expressed concern that the index-velocity rating—the method used to estimate mean cross-sectional velocity from a measured index velocity—may be subject to hysteresis at this site because of the unique, unsteady hydraulics of the canal. Hysteresis in index-velocity ratings can occur at sites where the flow distribution in the channel varies significantly between the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph for the same discharge. Presently, hysteresis in index-velocity ratings has been documented only in tidally affected sites. This report investigates whether hysteresis can occur at this nontidal site, and the conditions under which it is likely to occur, by using both a theoretical approach and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The theoretical analysis investigated the conditions required for hysteresis in the index-velocity rating, and the modeling analysis focused on the effect of the timing of the inflows from the CSSC and the Cal-Sag Channel on the potential for hysteresis and whether highly resolved simulations of actual high-flow events show any evidence of hysteresis. Based on both a theoretical analysis using observed historical data and an analysis using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, there is no conclusive evidence for the existence of hysteresis in the index-velocity rating at the USGS streamgage on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. Although the theoretical analysis indicated the possibility of hysteresis at this site, the hydrodynamic conditions required to generate hysteresis are not present at this site based on historical data. Ongoing streamgaging practices at this site will use the information in this report and include periodic assessment of the index-velocity rating for any signs of hysteresis that might result from future changes to the operation of this manmade canal.