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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Evaluating treatment methods to control the egg masses of the crop pest Pomacea maculata

Pomacea maculata is an invasive aquatic apple snail species that poses serious ecological, agricultural, and public health threats across the southeastern United States. Its spread, particularly in Louisiana, has heavily impacted rice and crayfish farming, an industry producing over 90% of U.S. crayfish and valued at more than $250 million annually. The snail damages seedling rice, clogs crayfish traps, reduces yields, and increases labor for farmers. Moreover, it is a known host of rat lungworm ( Angiostrongylus cantonensis ), a parasite harmful to humans, making its presence in food production environments a public health concern. Controlling P. maculata is challenging due to its life cycle and reproductive strategies. The species lays large clutches of eggs above the waterline, where traditional aquatic molluscicides are ineffective. This study aimed to assess low-cost, practical methods for reducing egg hatch rates, specifically water submersion and vegetable oil application, on newly laid (day 1) and older (day 7) egg clutches. Laboratory trials on 125 egg clutches revealed that water submersion significantly reduced hatch rates and the development of dormant hatchlings, regardless of clutch age. Oil treatment only reduced hatch rates for day 1 clutches and had no effect on dormant hatchlings. These results suggest that water treatment is more broadly effective and feasible for farmers to apply without needing to determine egg age when applied on a routine, weekly basis. While oil showed limited use, its time-sensitive application limits practicality in the field. Water-based approaches offer a scalable solution for reducing P. maculata populations, but do not completely eliminate the potential for hatching and spreading. Without comprehensive control strategies targeting all life stages, the apple snail’s spread and associated impacts are expected to worsen, underscoring the urgency of continued management innovation.

Florida

Status of groundwater quality in the Santa Barbara Study Unit, 2011: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the 48-square-mile Santa Barbara study unit was investigated in 2011 as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board’s Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project. The study unit is mostly in Santa Barbara County and is in the Transverse and Selected Peninsular Ranges hydrogeologic province. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the California State Water Resources Control Board and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA Priority Basin Project was designed to provide a statistically unbiased, spatially distributed assessment of the quality of untreated groundwater in the primary aquifer system of California. The primary aquifer system is defined as that part of the aquifer corresponding to the perforation interval of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database for the Santa Barbara study unit. This status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources in the primary aquifer system of the Santa Barbara study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. The status assessment for the Santa Barbara study unit was based on water-quality and ancillary data collected in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey from 23 sites and on water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health database for January 24, 2008–January 23, 2011. The data used for the assessment included volatile organic compounds; pesticides; pharmaceutical compounds; two constituents of special interest, perchlorate and N -nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA); and naturally present inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by the health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentration) were used to evaluate groundwater quality for those constituents that have federal or California regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. For inorganic, organic, and special-interest constituents, a relative-concentration greater than 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than the benchmark and is classified as high. Inorganic constituents are classified as moderate if relative-concentrations are greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.0 and are classified as low if relative-concentrations are less than or equal to 0.5. For organic and special-interest constituents, the boundary between moderate and low relative-concentrations was set at 0.1. Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with a relative-concentration greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system that had moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid based and spatially weighted—were used to calculate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and constituent classes. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable in this the study (within 90-percent confidence intervals). Grid-based results were selected for use in the status assessment unless, as was observed in a few cases, a grid-based result was zero and the spatially weighted result was not zero, in which case, the spatially weighted result was used. Inorganic constituents that have human-health benchmarks were present at high relative-concentrations in 5.3 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate concentrations in 32 percent. High aquifer-scale proportions of inorganic constituents primarily were a result of high aquifer-scale proportions of boron (5.3 percent) and fluoride (5.3 percent). Inorganic constituents that have aesthetic-based benchmarks, referred to as secondary maximum contaminant levels, were present at high relative-concentrations in 58 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate concentrations in 37 percent. Iron, manganese, sulfate, and total dissolved solids were the inorganic constituents with secondary maximum contaminant levels present at high relative-concentrations. In contrast, organic and special-interest constituents that have health-based benchmarks were not detected at high relative-concentrations in the primary aquifer system. Of the 218 organic constituents analyzed, 10 were detected—9 that had human-health benchmarks. Organic constituents were present at moderate relative-concentrations in 11 percent of the primary aquifer system. The moderate aquifer-scale proportions were a result of moderate relative-concentrations of the volatile organic compounds methyl tert- butyl ether (MTBE, 11 percent) and 1,2-dichloroethane (5.6 percent). The volatile organic compounds 1,1,1-trichloroethane, 1,1-dichloroethane, bromodichloromethane, chloroform, MTBE, and perchloroethene (PCE); the pesticide simazine; and the special-interest constituent perchlorate were detected at more than 10 percent of the sites in the Santa Barbara study unit. Perchlorate was present at moderate relative-concentrations in 50 percent of the primary aquifer system. Pharmaceutical compounds and NDMA were not detected in the Santa Barbara study unit.

California

The Penobscot River and environmental contaminants: Assessment of tribal exposure through sustenance lifeways

EPA in collaboration with the Penobscot Indian Nation, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USF&WS) collectively embarked on a four year research study to evaluate the environmental health of the riverine system by targeting specific cultural practices and using traditional science to conduct a preliminary contaminant screening of the flora and fauna of the Penobscot River ecosystem. This study was designed as a preliminary screening to determine if contaminant concentrations in fish, eel, snapping turtle, wood ducks, and plants in Regions of the Penobscot River relevant to where PIN tribal members hunt, fish and gather plants were high enough to be a health concern. This study was not designed to be a statistically validated assessment of contaminant differences among study sites or among species. The traditional methodology for health risk assessment used by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is based on the use of exposure assumptions (e.g. exposure duration, food ingestion rate, body weight, etc.) that represent the entire American population, either as a central tendency exposure (e.g. average, median) or as a reasonable maximum exposure (e.g. 95% upper confidence limit). Unfortunately, EPA lacked exposure information for assessing health risks for New England regional tribes sustaining a tribal subsistence way of life. As a riverine tribe, the Penobscot culture and traditions are inextricably tied to the Penobscot River watershed. It is through hunting, fishing, trapping, gathering and making baskets, pottery, moccasins, birch-bark canoes and other traditional practices that the Penobscot culture and people are sustained. The Penobscot River receives a variety of pollutant discharges leaving the Penobscot Indian Nation (PIN) questioning the ecological health and water quality of the river and how this may affect the practices that sustain their way of life. The objectives of this Regional Applied Research Effort (RARE) study were to: Develop culturally sensitive methodologies for assessing the potential level of exposure tocontaminants that Penobscot Indian Nation tribal members may have from maintainingtribal sustenance practices. Conduct field surveys and laboratory analysis on targeted flora and fauna for chemicalexposure to dioxins/furans, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), total mercury and methyl-mercury. Assist the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) by providing thenecessary data to conduct a Public Health Assessment for the Penobscot Indian Nation. Establish protocols for assessing the level of exposure to PCBs, dioxins/furans and mercuryto PIN tribal members as a consequence of gathering tribal plants for medicinal andnutritional purposes; as well as consuming fish, wood duck, and snapping turtle as a primarysource of nutrition. Survey surface water, drinking water, and sediment from the Penobscot River and IndianIsland to assess the exposure of PIN tribal members to environmental genotoxicants thatcontinue cultural sustenance practices. This research initiative collected and analyzed sediment and biota to determine the level of contaminant exposure to Penobscot tribal members. Natural resource utilization patterns and exposure pathways were identified based on discussions with the Tribal elders. Identification of Tribal exposure factors (exposure pathways and contaminant concentrations) was essential for accurately assessing potential long-term Penobscot Indian Nation tribal members’ exposure. Based on this study, ATSDR’s Public Health Assessment (PHA) concluded that the Penobscot Indian Nation (PIN) tribal members who eat fish and snapping turtle at the ingestion levels suggested in the Wabanaki Traditional Cultural Lifeways Exposure Scenario Report (Wabanaki Exposure Scenario) may be exposed to harmful levels of mercury, dioxins/furans, dioxin-like PCBs, and ot

Maine

Natural and mining-related sources of dissolved minerals during low flow in the Upper Animas River Basin, southwestern Colorado

As part of the Clean Water Act of 1972 (Public Law 92-500), all States are required to establish water-quality standards for every river basin in the State. During 1994, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment proposed to the Colorado Water Quality Control Commission (CWQCC) an aquatic-life standard of 225 µg/L (micrograms per liter) for the dissolved-zinc concentration in the Animas River downstream from Silverton (fig.1). The CWQCC delayed implementation of this water-quality standard until further information was collected and a plan for the cleanup of abandoned mines was developed. Dissolved-zinc concentrations in this section of the river ranged from about 270 µg/L during high flow, when rainfall and snowmelt runoff dilute the dissolved minerals in the river (U.S. Geological Survey, 1996, p. 431), to 960 µg/L (Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, written commun., 1996) during low flow (such as late summer and middle winter when natural springs and drainage from mines are the main sources for the streams). Mining sites in the basin were developed between about 1872 and the 1940's, with only a few mines operated until the early 1990's. For local governments, mining sites represent part of the Nation's heritage, tourists are attracted to the historic mining sites, and governments are obligated to protect the historic mining sites according to the National Historic Preservation Act (Public Law 89-665). In the context of this fact sheet, the term "natural sources of dissolved minerals" refers to springs and streams where no effect from mining were determined. "Mining-related sources of dissolved minerals" are assumed to be: (1 ) Water draining from mines , and (2) water seeping from mine-waste dump pile where the waste piles were saturated by water draining from mines. Although rainfall and snowmelt runoff from mine-waste piles might affect water quality in streams, work described in this fact sheet was done during low-flow conditions when springs and drainage from mine were the main sources of dissolved minerals affecting the streams. Data are being collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine the magnitude and sources of dissolved minerals during rainfall- and snowmelt-runoff periods. This fact sheet presents results of studies done by the USGS in collaboration with the Animas River Stakeholders Group and was prepared in cooperation with the Southwestern Colorado Water Conservation District. The studies were done at selected sites in the Upper Animas River Basin to determine natural and mining-related sources of dissolved minerals and are continuing in the basin with the Animas River Stakeholders Group and as part of the Department of the Interior Abandoned Mine Lands Initiative. The results of these studies will provide useful information for determining water-quality standards in the basin.

Colorado

An appraisal of the ground-water resources of the Juniata River Basin, Pennsylvania

This report describes the availability, quantity, quality, variability, and cost of development of the ground-water resources in the Juniata River basin, one of the larger sub-basins of the Susquehanna River basin. The report has been prepared for and under specifications established by the Corps of Engineers, U. S. Army, and the Public Health Service, Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. A comprehensive study of the water and related land resources of the Susquehanna River basin was authorized by the Congress of the United States in October 1961, and the task of preparing a report and of coordinating the work being done by others in support of the study was assigned to the Corps of Engineers. The comprehensive study is being conducted by several Federal departments and independent agencies in cooperation with the States of New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. The Public Health Service under its authority in the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (P. L. 660) initiated a comprehensive water quality control program for the Chesapeake drainage basin, which includes the Susquehanna River basin.

Pennsylvania

Comparability among four invertebrate sampling methods and two multimetric indexes, Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2010–2012

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering and Colorado Springs Utilities, analyzed previously collected invertebrate data to determine the comparability among four sampling methods and two versions (2010 and 2017) of the Colorado Benthic Macroinvertebrate Multimetric Index (MMI). For this study, annual macroinvertebrate samples were collected concurrently (in space and time) at 15 USGS surface-water gaging stations in the Fountain Creek Basin from 2010 to 2012 using four sampling methods. The USGS monitoring project in the basin uses two of the methods and the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment recommends the other two. These methods belong to two distinct sample types, one that targets single habitats and one that targets multiple habitats. The study results indicate that there are significant differences in MMI values obtained from the single-habitat and multihabitat sample types but methods from each program within each sample type produced comparable values. This study also determined that MMI values calculated by different versions of the Colorado Benthic Macroinvertebrate MMI are indistinguishable. This indicates that the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment methods are comparable with the USGS monitoring project methods for single-habitat and multihabitat sample types. This report discusses the direct application of the study results to inform the revision of the existing USGS monitoring project in the Fountain Creek Basin.

Colorado

Microbiological monitoring for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Data to characterize the microbiological quality of the Nation's fresh, marine, and estuarine waters are usually collected for local purposes, most often to judge compliance with standards for protection of public health in swimmable or drinkable waters. Methods and procedures vary with the objectives and practices of the parties collecting data and are continuously being developed or modified. Therefore, it is difficult to provide a nationally consistent picture of the microbial quality of the Nation's waters. Study objectives and guidelines for a national microbiological monitoring program are outlined in this report, using the framework of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. A national program is designed to provide long-term data on the presence of microbiological pathogens and indicators in ground water and surface water to support effective water policy and management. Three major groups of waterborne pathogens affect the public health acceptability of waters in the United States—bacteria, protozoa, and viruses. Microbiological monitoring in NAWQA would be designed to assess the occurrence, distribution, and trends of pathogenic organisms and indicators in surface waters and ground waters; relate the patterns discerned to factors that help explain them; and improve our understanding of the processes that control microbiological water quality.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Analysis of Dissolved Selenium Loading for Selected Sites in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, 1978-2005

Elevated selenium concentrations in streams are a water-quality concern in western Colorado. The U.S. Geologic Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, summarized selenium loading in the Lower Gunnison River Basin to support the development of total maximum daily selenium loads at sites that represent the cumulative contribution to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 303(d) list segments. Analysis of selenium loading included quantifying loads and determining the amount of load that would need to be reduced to bring the site into compliance, referred to as 'the load reduction,' with the State chronic aquatic-life standard for dissolved selenium [85th percentile selenium concentration not to exceed 4.6 ?g/L (micrograms per liter)], referred to as 'the water-quality standard.' Streamflow and selenium concentration data for 54 historical water-quality/water-quantity monitoring sites were compiled from U.S. Geological Survey and Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment data sources. Three methods were used for analysis of selenium concentration data to address the variable data density among sites. Mean annual selenium loads were determined for only 10 of the 54 sites due to data availability limitations. Twenty-two sites had 85th percentile selenium concentrations that exceeded the water-quality standard, 3 sites had 85th percentile selenium concentrations less than the State standard, and 29 sites could not be evaluated with respect to 85th percentile selenium concentration (sample count less than 5). To bring selenium concentrations into compliance with the water-quality standard, more than 80 percent of the mean annual selenium load would need to be reduced at Red Rock Canyon, Dry Cedar Creek, Cedar Creek, Loutzenhizer Arroyo, Sunflower Drain, and Whitewater Creek. More than 50 percent of the mean annual load would need to be reduced at Dry Creek to bring the site into compliance with the water-quality standard. The Uncompahgre River, Gunnison River at Delta, and Gunnison River near Grand Junction would require 69, 34 and 53 percent, respectively, of the mean annual load to be reduced for water years 2001 through 2005 to meet the water-quality standard. Mean annual load reductions can be further reduced by targeting the periods of time when selenium would be removed from streams by remediation. During a previous study of selenium loads in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, mean annual load reductions were estimated at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction for the 1997?2001 study period. Mean annual load reductions estimated for this study period were less than those estimated for the 2001?05 study period, emphasizing the importance of understanding that different study periods can result in different load reduction estimates.

Scientific Investigations Report

Occurrence of fecal coliform bacteria in selected streams in Wyoming, 1990-99

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WDEQ), is collecting water samples for analysis of fecal coliform bacteria at 18 stream sites as part of a statewide network. Contamination by bacteria of fecal origin in streams where contact recreation is a designated water use is a concern because of potential public-health risk from the presence of enteric pathogens. Fecal coliform concentrations are temporally and spatially variable in Wyoming streams-concentrations ranged from less than 1 to 45,000 colonies per 100 milliliters of water during 1990-99. Fecal coliform concentrations were less than the water-quality criterion of 400 colonies per 100 milliliters in 83 percent of the samples, indicating fecal coliform contamination is not a widespread problem in these Wyoming streams. However, 14 of the 18 monitoring sites had at least one sample in which the fecal coliform concentration exceeded 400 colonies per 100 milliliters at some time during the 10-year period. Fecal coliform concentrations generally are higher during April through September than during October through March. The higher concentrations coincide with the time period when the public-health risk is higher because summer months are when contact recreation use is more likely occurring. Fecal coliform concentrations were positively correlated with discharge and stream temperature and generally were negatively correlated with pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen.

Wyoming

Retention of mercury by salmon

Consuming fish that have been exposed repeatedly to mercury derivatives is a potential public health hazard because fish can accumulate and retain mercury in their tissues (Rucker, 1968). Concern has been expressed in the United States because mercurials have been used extensively in industry and as prophylactic and therapeutic agents in fish hatcheries. Rucker and Amend (1969) showed that yearling rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri) and chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) exposed to mercurials accumulated excessive amounts of mercury in many tissues. Further, Rucker and Amend (1969) concluded that wild fish that ate mercury-contaminated fish also could contain high mercury levels. Although mercury was eliminated from most tissues within several months, substantial levels remained in the kidney for more than 33 weeks after the last exposure. Since high levels of mercury can be retained in the kidney for an undetermined time, it is possible that returning adult salmon exposed to mercurials as juveniles could constitute a potential hazard to public health. The purpose of this study was to determine whether such fish contained high residual levels of mercury.

Progressive Fish-Culturist

Management of arthropod pathogen vectors in North America: Minimizing adverse effects on pollinators

Tick and mosquito management is important to public health protection. At the same time, growing concerns about declines of pollinator species raise the question of whether vector control practices might affect pollinator populations. We report the results of a task force of the North American Pollinator Protection Campaign (NAPPC) that examined potential effects of vector management practices on pollinators, and how these programs could be adjusted to minimize negative effects on pollinating species. The main types of vector control practices that might affect pollinators are landscape manipulation, biocontrol, and pesticide applications. Some current practices already minimize effects of vector control on pollinators (e.g., short-lived pesticides and application-targeting technologies). Nontarget effects can be further diminished by taking pollinator protection into account in the planning stages of vector management programs. Effects of vector control on pollinator species often depend on specific local conditions (e.g., proximity of locations with abundant vectors to concentrations of floral resources), so planning is most effective when it includes collaborations of local vector management professionals with local experts on pollinators. Interventions can then be designed to avoid pollinators (e.g., targeting applications to avoid blooming times and pollinator nesting habitats), while still optimizing public health protection. Research on efficient targeting of interventions, and on effects on pollinators of emerging technologies, will help mitigate potential deleterious effects on pollinators in future management programs. In particular, models that can predict effects of integrated pest management on vector-borne pathogen transmission, along with effects on pollinator populations, would be useful for collaborative decision-making.

Journal of Medical Entomology

Multisensor earth observations to characterize wetlands and malaria epidemiology in Ethiopia

Malaria is a major global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of malaria can be affected by factors such as hydrological processes, physiography, and land cover patterns. Tropical wetlands, for example, are important hydrological features that can serve as mosquito breeding habitats. Mapping and monitoring of wetlands using satellite remote sensing can thus help to target interventions aimed at reducing malaria transmission. The objective of this study was to map wetlands and other major land cover types in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and to analyze district-level associations of malaria and wetlands across the region. We evaluated three random forests classification models using remotely sensed topographic and spectral data based on Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery, respectively. The model that integrated data from both sensors yielded more accurate land cover classification than single-sensor models. The resulting map of wetlands and other major land cover classes had an overall accuracy of 93.5%. Topographic indices and subpixel level fractional cover indices contributed most strongly to the land cover classification. Further, we found strong spatial associations of percent area of wetlands with malaria cases at the district level across the dry, wet, and fall seasons. Overall, our study provided the most extensive map of wetlands for the Amhara region and documented spatiotemporal associations of wetlands and malaria risk at a broad regional level. These findings can assist public health personnel in developing strategies to effectively control and eliminate malaria in the region.

Amhara region

Science support for evaluating natural recovery of polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in fish from Crab Orchard Lake, Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge, Illinois

Introduction Crab Orchard Lake in southern Illinois is one of the largest and most popular recreational lakes in the state. Construction of the nearly 7,000-acre reservoir in the late 1930s created employment opportunities through the Works Progress Administration, and the lake itself was intended to supply water, control flooding, and provide recreational opportunities for local communities (Stall, 1954). In 1942, the Department of War appropriated or purchased more than 20,000 acres of land around Crab Orchard Lake and constructed the Illinois Ordnance Plant, which manufactured bombs and anti-tank mines during World War II. After the war, an Act of Congress transferred the property to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge was established on August 5, 1947, for the joint purposes of wildlife conservation, agriculture, recreation, and industry. Production of explosives continued, but new industries also moved onsite. More than 200 tenants have held leases with Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge and have operated a variety of manufacturing plants (electrical components, plated metal parts, ink, machined parts, painted products, and boats) on-site. Soils, water, and sediments in several areas of the refuge were contaminated with hazardous substances from handling and disposal methods that are no longer acceptable environmental practice (for example, direct discharge to surface water, use of unlined landfills). Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination at the refuge was identified in the 1970s, and a PCB-based fish-consumption advisory has been in effect since 1988 for Crab Orchard Lake. The present advisory covers common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ); see Illinois Department of Public Health (2017). Some of the most contaminated areas of the refuge were actively remediated, and natural ecosystem recovery processes are expected to further reduce residual PCB concentrations in the lake. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sought technical support to understand environmental drivers of current (2017) PCB residues in fish tissue and patterns in PCB residues through time to inform the fish-consumption advisory for Crab Orchard Lake. This project is planned in two phases (Tasks 1 and 2); the first phase is included in this report. Task 1, reported here, includes a review of existing literature and a brief overview focused on environmental and biochemical/physiological processes that drive PCB residues in fish tissue. This review specifically targets processes that are relevant for freshwater lacustrine environments such as those at Crab Orchard Lake. In addition to discussions of environmental fate, metabolism, and accumulation of PCBs, this review includes a brief scientifically based explanation of approaches used to establish fish-consumption advisories. A planned second task (Task 2) will include a compilation and summary of existing data on PCB residues in fish tissue samples from Crab Orchard Lake. This summary will also place Crab Orchard Lake data in a broader geographic context through a comparison with fish data from other Midwestern lakes. When Task 1 and Task 2 are complete, resource managers will have (a) a synthesis of existing literature that characterizes the processes influencing the fate of residual PCBs remaining in systems such as Crab Orchard Lake, (b) a summary of natural PCB attenuation processes for use in risk communication with the public, and (c) a summary of existing data on PCBs in fish tissues from Crab Orchard Lake, including exploratory plots of tissue residues through time. Overall, this project will provide data to help resource managers better understand the ecological and public health consequences of residual PCBs in Crab Orchard Lake.

Illinois

When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting

Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper decision making if not synthesized appropriately. To address this challenge, multi-model hubs convene independent modeling groups to generate ensembles, known to provide more accurate predictions of future outcomes. Yet, these hubs are resource intensive, and how many models are sufficient in a hub is not known. Here, we compare the benefit of predictions from multiple models in different contexts: (1) decision settings that depend on predictions of quantitative outcomes (e.g., hospital capacity planning), where assessments of the benefits of multi-model ensembles have largely focused; and (2) decisions settings that require the ranking of alternative epidemic scenarios (e.g., comparing outcomes under multiple possible interventions and biological uncertainties). We develop a mathematical framework to mimic a multi-model prediction setting, and use this framework to quantify how frequently predictions from different models agree. We further explore multi-model agreement using real-world, empirical data from 14 rounds of U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub projections. Our results suggest that the value of multiple models could be different in different decision contexts, and if only a few models are available, focusing on the rank of alternative epidemic scenarios could be more robust than focusing on quantitative outcomes. Although additional exploration of the sufficient number of models for different contexts is still needed, our results indicate that it may be possible to identify decision contexts where it is robust to rely on fewer models, a finding that can inform the use of modeling resources during future public health crises.

Epidemics

Upstream factors affecting Tualatin River algae—Tracking the 2008 Anabaena algae bloom to Wapato Lake, Oregon

Significant Findings A large bloom that included floating mats of the blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae occurred in the lower 20 miles of the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon between July 7 and July 17, 2008. The floating bloom was deemed a hazard to recreational users of the river due to the potential production of algal toxins (anatoxin- a and microcystin), and a public health advisory was posted for the lower 10.8 miles of the river by the Oregon Department of Human Services for July 12–25, 2008. The bloom caused nuisance taste and odor issues and required modified drinking-water treatment techniques where water was withdrawn for municipal uses in the upper reaches of the Tualatin River, some 46 miles upstream of the worst algae problems. Using water sample data from Clean Water Services and the Joint Water Commission, and continuous and discrete monitoring data from the U.S. Geological Survey, the source of the anomalous water-quality conditions and the likely source of the Anabaena bloom was traced upstream to discharges from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston, Oregon, in the upper part of the watershed near river mile 60. The Wapato Lake algae bloom occurred as standing water remained on the lakebed far longer than normal—into early summer. A failure of the levee on the edge of Wapato Lake in December 2007 caused by heavy rainfall and high water in the canal outside the levee inundated the lakebed to a depth of 7–9 feet, storing thousands of acre-feet more water than its normal winter volume. The water could not be pumped out until the levee was repaired or river levels receded, thus delaying drainage of the lake until summer and facilitating the bloom. In normal summers, the lower Tualatin River grows a moderate crop of algae that responds strongly to streamflow (residence time), light available for photosynthesis, and phosphorus concentrations. In 2008, however, inoculation of the river with phytoplankton and zooplankton discharged from Wapato Lake some 30 miles upstream of the lower, pooled reach of the river demonstrated the importance of upstream factors on plankton communities and water-quality conditions in the Tualatin River. The Wapato Lake algae bloom of July 2008 provided useful information and lessons for agencies managing public health, wetlands, agricultural activities, and water quality in the Tualatin River basin and similar river basins elsewhere. The results and insights derived from this study can be used to enhance future monitoring and data collection strategies designed to improve water quality and plankton models and better predict dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the lower Tualatin River.

Oregon

Avian influenza virus and free-ranging wild birds

Recent media and news reports and other information implicate wild birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia and Eastern Europe. Although there is little information concerning highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in wild birds, scientists have amassed a large amount of data on low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses during decades of research with wild birds. This knowledge can provide sound guidance to veterinarians, public health professionals, the general public, government agencies, and other entities with concerns about avian influenza.

Asia, Eastern Europe

Groundwater quality in the San Diego Drainages Hydrogeologic Province, California

More than 40 percent of California's drinking water is from groundwater. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State's groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. The San Diego Drainages Hydrogeologic Province (hereinafter referred to as San Diego) is one of the study units being evaluated. The San Diego study unit is approximately 3,900 square miles and consists of the Temecula Valley, Warner Valley, and 12 other alluvial basins (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). The study unit also consists of all areas outside defined groundwater basins that are within 3 kilometers of a public-supply well. The study unit was separated, based primarily on hydrogeologic settings, into four study areas: Temecula Valley, Warner Valley, Alluvial Basins, and Hard Rock (Wright and others, 2005). The sampling density for the Hard Rock study area, which consists of areas outside of groundwater basins, was much lower than for the other study areas. Consequently, aquifer proportions for the Hard Rock study area are not used to calculate the aquifer proportions shown by the pie charts. An assessment of groundwater quality for the Hard Rock study area can be found in Wright and Belitz, 2011. The temperatures in the coastal part of the study unit are mild with dry summers, moist winters, and an average annual rainfall of about 10 inches. The temperatures in the mountainous eastern part of the study unit are cooler than in the coastal part, with an annual precipitation of about 45 inches that occurs mostly in the winter. The primary aquifers consist of Quaternary-age alluvium and weathered bedrock in the Temecula Valley, Warner Valley, and Alluvial Basins study areas, whereas in the Hard Rock study area the primary aquifers consist mainly of fractured and decomposed granite of Mesozoic age. The primary aquifers are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. Public-supply wells typically are drilled to depths between 200 and 700 feet, consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of about 60 to 170 feet, and are perforated, or consist of an open hole, below the solid casing. Water quality in the shallow and deep parts of the aquifer system may differ from water quality in the primary aquifers. Municipal water use accounts for approximately 70 percent of water used in the study unit; the majority of the remainder is used for agriculture, industry, and commerce. Groundwater accounts for approximately 8 percent of the municipal supply, and surface water, the majority of which is imported, accounts for the rest. Recharge to groundwater occurs through stream-channel infiltration from rivers and their tributaries, infiltration in engineered recharge basins, and infiltration of water from precipitation and irrigation. The primary source of discharge is water pumped from wells.

California

Groundwater quality in the Santa Clara River Valley, California

The Santa Clara River Valley (SCRV) study unit is located in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, California, and is bounded by the Santa Monica, San Gabriel, Topatopa, and Santa Ynez Mountains, and the Pacific Ocean. The 460-square-mile study unit includes eight groundwater basins: Ojai Valley, Upper Ojai Valley, Ventura River Valley, Santa Clara River Valley, Pleasant Valley, Arroyo Santa Rosa Valley, Las Posas Valley, and Simi Valley (California Department of Water Resources, 2003; Montrella and Belitz, 2009). The SCRV study unit has hot, dry summers and cool, moist winters. Average annual rainfall ranges from 12 to 28 inches. The study unit is drained by the Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, and Calleguas Creek. The primary aquifer system in the Ventura River Valley, Ojai Valley, Upper Ojai Valley, and Simi Valley basins is largely unconfined alluvium. The primary aquifer system in the remaining groundwater basins mainly consists of unconfined sands and gravels in the upper portion and partially confined marine and nonmarine deposits in the lower portion. The primary aquifer system in the SCRV study unit is defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. Public-supply wells typically are completed in the primary aquifer system to depths of 200 to 1,100 feet below land surface (bls). The wells contain solid casing reaching from the land surface to a depth of about 60-700 feet, and are perforated below the solid casing to allow water into the well. Water quality in the primary aquifer system may differ from the water in the shallower and deeper parts of the aquifer. Land use in the study unit is approximately 40 percent (%) natural (primarily shrubs, grassland, and wetlands), 37% agricultural, and 23% urban. The primary crops are citrus, avocados, alfalfa, pasture, strawberries, and dry beans. The largest urban areas in the study unit are the cities of Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Simi Valley, Newhall, and Santa Clarita. Currently, groundwater pumping for agricultural use accounts for the greatest amount of discharge from the aquifer system in the SCRV study unit, followed by municipal use. Recharge to the groundwater system is through stream-channel infiltration from the three main river systems and by direct infiltration of precipitation and irrigation. Recharge facilities in the Oxnard forebay play an important role in recharging the local aquifer systems.

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