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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Roles of host and environment in shift of primary anthrax host species in Kruger National Park

Environmental and climatic factors, as well as host demographics and behaviour, significantly influence the exposure of herbivorous mammalian hosts to pathogens such as Bacillus anthracis , the causative agent of anthrax. Until the early 1990s in Kruger National Park (KNP), kudu ( Tragelaphus strepsiceros ) was the host species most affected by anthrax, with outbreaks occurring predominantly in the dry season, particularly during drought cycles. However, the most affected host species has shifted to impala ( Aepyceros melampus ), with more frequent anthrax outbreaks during the wet season. This study investigates the roles of environmental variation and other host species in this shift. Temporal trends in environmental variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were analyzed in relation to anthrax occurrence (presence/ absence and counts). Additionally, correlations between host species’ densities and anthrax mortalities over time were examined. Anthrax cases in 1990 were concentrated in the central and northern regions of KNP(excluding Pafuri), primarily affected kudus; while subsequent mortalities affected mostly impala and were restricted to the far north, in Pafuri. Significant correlations were found between kudu anthrax mortality and a decrease in NDVI, average temperature, SPI-6 and SPI-12 (Standardised Precipitation Index in various time intervals. Conversely, anthrax occurrence in impalas was associated with a decline in SPI-3, and temperature rise, with increased mortality during the rainy season. Elephant density correlated negatively with kudu mortality, but a positive correlation with both impala mortality and impala density. The study concludes that environmental variables and species’ densities may alter the diversity and frequency of hosts exposed to B . anthracis . Climate extremes and alterations therein may exacerbate anthrax severity by modifying species susceptibility and their probability of exposure over time.

Kruger National Park↗
USGS2023

An integrated framework for examining groundwater vulnerability in the Mekong River Delta region

The Mekong River provides water, food security, and many other valuable benefits to the more than 60 million Southeast Asian residents living within its basin. However, the Mekong River Basin is increasingly stressed by changes in climate, land cover, and infrastructure. These changes can affect water quantity and quality and exacerbate related hazards such as land subsidence and saltwater intrusion, resulting in multiple compounding risks for neighboring communities. In this study, we demonstrate the connection between climate change, groundwater availability, and social vulnerability by linking the results of a numerical groundwater model to land cover and socioeconomic data at the Cambodia-Vietnam border in the Mekong River Delta region. We simulated changes in groundwater availability across 20 years and identified areas of potential water stress based on domestic and agriculture-related freshwater demands. We then assessed adaptive capacity to understand how communities may be able to respond to this stress to better understand the growing risk of groundwater scarcity driven by climate change and overextraction. This study offers a novel approach for assessing risk of groundwater scarcity by linking the effects of climate change to the socioeconomic context in which they occur. Increasing our understanding of how changes in groundwater availability may affect local populations can help water managers better plan for the future, leading to more resilient communities.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2018

Invasive rat control is an efficient, yet insufficient, method for recovery of the critically endangered Hawaiian plant hau kuahiwi (Hibiscadelphus giffardianus)

Biological invasions of rodents and other species have been especially problematic on tropical islands. Invasive Rattus rattus consumption of Hibiscadelphus giffardianus (Malvaceae; common Hawaiian name hau kuahiwi) fruit and seeds has been hypothesized to be the most-limiting factor inhibiting the critically endangered tree, but this has not been experimentally tested, and little is known about other factors affecting seed dispersal, germination, and seedling establishment. Thus, we do not know if rat removal is sufficient to increase hau kuahiwi recruitment. This study aims to evaluate the effect of rat population control on the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit and establish seedlings. We compared hau kuahiwi fruiting and seedling recruitment in a stand treated to reduce rat abundance and a neighbouring control stand. Fruit retention increased following treatment but seedling establishment did not. Although rat control improves the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit, other, presently unknown inhibitors to seed dispersal, germination, and/or seedling development remain. Seed and seedling predation by other species, competition from numerous invasive plant species, unsuitable climate, and/or other factors may be primary inhibitors in the absence of rats, but we emphasize that progressive isolation of these factors at individual hau kuahiwi life stages may be necessary to identify the remaining threats to the conservation of this critically endangered plant.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2014

Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Conservation planning for offsetting the impacts of development: a case study of biodiversity and renewable energy in the Mojave Desert

Balancing society’s competing needs of development and conservation requires careful consideration of tradeoffs. Renewable energy development and biodiversity conservation are often considered beneficial environmental goals. The direct footprint and disturbance of renewable energy, however, can displace species’ habitat and negatively impact populations and natural communities if sited without ecological consideration. Offsets have emerged as a potentially useful tool to mitigate residual impacts after trying to avoid, minimize, or restore affected sites. Yet the problem of efficiently designing a set of offset sites becomes increasingly complex where many species or many sites are involved. Spatial conservation prioritization tools are designed to handle this problem, but have seen little application to offset siting and analysis. To address this need we designed an offset siting support tool for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) of California, and present a case study of hypothetical impacts from solar development in the Western Mojave subsection. We compare two offset scenarios designed to mitigate a hypothetical 15,331 ha derived from proposed utility-scale solar energy development (USSED) projects. The first scenario prioritizes offsets based precisely on impacted features, while the second scenario offsets impacts to maximize biodiversity conservation gains in the region. The two methods only agree on 28% of their prioritized sites and differ in meeting species-specific offset goals. Differences between the two scenarios highlight the importance of clearly specifying choices and priorities for offset siting and mitigation in general. Similarly, the effects of background climate and land use change may lessen the durability or effectiveness of offsets if not considered. Our offset siting support tool was designed specifically for the DRECP area, but with minor code modification could work well in other offset analyses, and could provide continuing support for a potentially innovative mitigation solution to environmental impacts.

California↗
USGS2021

Balancing the need for seed against invasive species risks in prairie habitat restorations

Adequate diversity and abundance of native seed for large-scale grassland restorations often require commercially produced seed from distant sources. However, as sourcing distance increases, the likelihood of inadvertent introduction of multiple novel, non-native weed species as seed contaminants also increases. We created a model to determine an “optimal maximum distance” that would maximize availability of native prairie seed from commercial sources while minimizing the risk of novel invasive weeds via contamination. The model focused on the central portion of the Level II temperate prairie ecoregion in the Midwest US. The median optimal maximum distance from which to source seed was 272 km (169 miles). In addition, we weighted the model to address potential concerns from restoration practitioners: 1. sourcing seed via a facilitated migration strategy (i.e., direct movement of species from areas south of a given restoration site to assist species’ range expansion) to account for warming due to climate change; and 2. emphasizing non-native, exotic species with a federal mandate to control. Weighting the model for climate change increased the median optimal maximum distance to 398 km (247 miles), but this was not statistically different from the distance calculated without taking sourcing for climate adaptation into account. Weighting the model for federally mandated exotic species increased the median optimal maximum distance only slightly to 293 km (182 miles), so practitioners may not need to adjust their sourcing strategy, compared to the original model. This decision framework highlights some potential inadvertent consequences from species translocations and provides insight on how to balance needs for prairie seed against those risks.

Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Manitoba, Minnesota, Misso↗
USGS2019

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units, and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories.

California↗
USGS2014

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publicly available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2018

Dynamic minimum set problem for reserve design: Heuristic solutions for large problems

Conversion of wild habitats to human dominated landscape is a major cause of biodiversity loss. An approach to mitigate the impact of habitat loss consists of designating reserves where habitat is preserved and managed. Determining the most valuable areas to preserve in a landscape is called the reserve design problem. There exists several possible formulations of the reserve design problem, depending on the objectives and the constraints. In this article, we considered the dynamic problem of designing a reserve that contains a desired area of several key habitats. The dynamic case implies that the reserve cannot be designed in one time step, due to budget constraints, and that habitats can be lost before they are reserved, due for example to climate change or human development. We proposed two heuristics strategies that can be used to select sites to reserve each year for large reserve design problem. The first heuristic is a combination of the Marxan and site-ordering algorithms and the second heuristic is an augmented version of the common naive myopic heuristic. We evaluated the strategies on several simulated examples and showed that the augmented greedy heuristic is particularly interesting when some of the habitats to protect are particularly threatened and/or the compactness of the network is accounted for.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2017

Advancing the match-mismatch framework for large herbivores in the Arctic: Evaluating the evidence for a trophic mismatch in caribou

Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic “mismatches” between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near the onset of the growing season but are they vulnerable to trophic mismatch? We evaluated the long-term changes in the temperatures and characteristics of the growing seasons (1970–2013), and compared growing conditions and dynamics of forage quality for caribou at peak parturition, peak lactation, and peak forage biomass, and plant senescence between two distinct time periods over 36 years (1977 and 2011–13). Despite advanced thaw dates (7−12 days earlier), increased growing season lengths (15−21 days longer), and consistent parturition dates, we found no decline in forage quality and therefore no evidence within this dataset for a trophic mismatch at peak parturition or peak lactation from 1977 to 2011–13. In Arctic ungulates that use stored capital for reproduction, reproductive demands are largely met by body stores deposited in the previous summer and autumn, which reduces potential adverse effects of any mismatch between food availability and timing of parturition. Climate-induced effects on forages growing in the summer and autumn ranges, however, do correspond with the demands of female caribou and their offspring to gain mass for the next reproductive cycle and winter. Therefore, we suggest the window of time to examine the match-mismatch framework in Arctic ungulates is not at parturition but in late summer-autumn, where the multiplier effects of small changes in forage quality are amplified by forage abundance, peak forage intake, and resultant mass gains in mother-offspring pairs.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Trends of litter decomposition and soil organic matter stocks across forested swamp environments of the southeastern US

A common idea in the discussion of soil carbon processes is that litter decomposition rates and soil carbon stocks are inversely related. To test this overall hypothesis, simultaneous studies were conducted of the relationship of environmental gradients to leaf and wood decomposition, buried cloth decomposition and percent soil organic matter in Taxodium distichum swamps across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MRAV) and northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) of the US. Decomposition of leaf tissue was 6.2 to 10.9 times faster than wood tissue. Both precipitation and flooding gradients were negatively related to leaf and wood litter decomposition rates based on models developed using Stepwise General Model Selection (MRAV vs. GOM, respectively). Cotton cloth should not be used as a proxy for plant litter without prior testing because cloth responded differently than plant litter to regional environmental gradients in T . distichum swamps. The overall hypothesis was supported in the MRAV because environments with higher precipitation (climate normal) had lower rates of decomposition and higher percent soil organic matter. In the MRAV, higher levels of percent soil organic matter were related to increased 30-year climate normals (30 year averages of precipitation and air temperature comprising southward increasing PrinComp1). Soil organic carbon % in inland vs. coastal T . distichum forests of the MRAV were comparable (range = 1.5% to 26.9% vs. 9.8 to 31.5%, respectively). GOM swamps had lower rates of litter decomposition in more flooded environments. Woody T . distichum detritus had a half-life of up to 300 years in the MRAV, which points to its likely role in the maintenance of inland “teal” soil organic carbon. This unique study can contribute to the discussion of approaches to maintain environments conducive to soil carbon stock maximization.

Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississipp↗
USGS2014

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Alaska;Yukon↗
USGS2015

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1–3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear ( U. arctos ) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow polar nations to proactively adjust conservation actions to continuing decline in sea-ice habitat.

Arctic↗
USGS2017

The role of density-dependent and –independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species’ evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: Fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2013

Regional contingencies in the relationship between aboveground Bbomass and litter in the world’s grasslands

Based on regional-scale studies, aboveground production and litter decomposition are thought to positively covary, because they are driven by shared biotic and climatic factors. Until now we have been unable to test whether production and decomposition are generally coupled across climatically dissimilar regions, because we lacked replicated data collected within a single vegetation type across multiple regions, obfuscating the drivers and generality of the association between production and decomposition. Furthermore, our understanding of the relationships between production and decomposition rests heavily on separate meta-analyses of each response, because no studies have simultaneously measured production and the accumulation or decomposition of litter using consistent methods at globally relevant scales. Here, we use a multi-country grassland dataset collected using a standardized protocol to show that live plant biomass (an estimate of aboveground net primary production) and litter disappearance (represented by mass loss of aboveground litter) do not strongly covary. Live biomass and litter disappearance varied at different spatial scales. There was substantial variation in live biomass among continents, sites and plots whereas among continent differences accounted for most of the variation in litter disappearance rates. Although there were strong associations among aboveground biomass, litter disappearance and climatic factors in some regions (e.g. U.S. Great Plains), these relationships were inconsistent within and among the regions represented by this study. These results highlight the importance of replication among regions and continents when characterizing the correlations between ecosystem processes and interpreting their global-scale implications for carbon flux. We must exercise caution in parameterizing litter decomposition and aboveground production in future regional and global carbon models as their relationship is complex.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2021

Long-term changes in kelp forests in an inner basin of the Salish Sea

Kelp forests form an important biogenic habitat that responds to natural and human drivers. Global concerns exist about threats to kelp forests, yet long-term information is limited and research suggests that trends are geographically distinct. We examined distribution of the bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana over 145 years in South Puget Sound (SPS), a semi-protected inner basin in a fjord estuary complex in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We synthesized 48 historical and modern Nereocystis surveys and examined presence/absence within 1-km segments along 452 km of shoreline. Compared to the earliest baseline in 1878, Nereocystis extent in 2017 decreased 63%, with individual sub-basins showing up to 96% loss. Losses have persisted for decades, across a range of climate conditions. In recent decades, Nereocystis predominantly occurred along shorelines with intense currents and mixing, where temperature and nutrient concentrations did not reach thresholds for impacts to Nereocystis performance, and high current speeds likely excluded grazers. Losses predominated in areas with elevated temperature, lower nutrient concentrations, and relatively low current velocities. The pattern of long-term losses in SPS contrasts with stability in floating kelp abundance during the last century in an area of the Salish Sea with greater wave exposure and proximity to oceanic conditions. These findings support the hypothesis that kelp beds along wave-sheltered shorelines exhibit greater sensitivity to environmental stressors. Additionally, shorelines with strong currents and deep-water mixing may provide refugia within sheltered systems.

Washington↗