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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Estimating landscape carrying capacity through maximum clique analysis

Habitat suitability (HS) maps are widely used tools in wildlife science and establish a link between wildlife populations and landscape pattern. Although HS maps spatially depict the distribution of optimal resources for a species, they do not reveal the population size a landscape is capable of supporting--information that is often crucial for decision makers and managers. We used a new approach, "maximum clique analysis," to demonstrate how HS maps for territorial species can be used to estimate the carrying capacity, N(k), of a given landscape. We estimated the N(k) of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) in an 1153-km2 study area in Vermont, USA. These two species were selected to highlight different approaches in building an HS map as well as computational challenges that can arise in a maximum clique analysis. We derived 30-m2 HS maps for each species via occupancy modeling (Ovenbird) and by resource utilization modeling (bobcats). For each species, we then identified all pixel locations on the map (points) that had sufficient resources in the surrounding area to maintain a home range (termed a "pseudo-home range"). These locations were converted to a mathematical graph, where any two points were linked if two pseudo-home ranges could exist on the landscape without violating territory boundaries. We used the program Cliquer to find the maximum clique of each graph. The resulting estimates of N(k) = 236 Ovenbirds and N(k) = 42 female bobcats were sensitive to different assumptions and model inputs. Estimates of N(k) via alternative, ad hoc methods were 1.4 to > 30 times greater than the maximum clique estimate, suggesting that the alternative results may be upwardly biased. The maximum clique analysis was computationally intensive but could handle problems with < 1500 total pseudo-home ranges (points). Given present computational constraints, it is best suited for species that occur in clustered distributions (where the problem can be broken into several, smaller problems), or for species with large home ranges relative to grid scale where resampling the points to a coarser resolution can reduce the problem to manageable proportions.

Ecological Applications↗

Study plan for the regional aquifer-system analysis of alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and adjacent states

The alluvial basins in the Southwestern United States constitute a major source of ground water and are relied upon extensively for agricultural, industrial, and public water supplies. Large-scale depletion of ground water is directly related to pumping that has occurred in the past few decades and is continuing today. The U.S. Geological Survey has started a 4-year study of the alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and parts of California, Nevada, and New Mexico. The study is designed to document and describe the hydrologic setting in the basins, the ground-water resources available, and the effects of historical development on the ground-water system. To aid in the study, mathematical models of selected basins will be developed for appraising the local and regional flow systems. Major tasks necessary to accomplish the study objectives include accumulating existing data on ground-water quantity and quality, entering the data into a computer file, identifying data deficiencies, and developing a program to remedy the deficiencies by collection of additional data. The approach to the study will be to develop and calibrate models of selected basins for which sufficient data exist and then to develop interpretation-transfer techniques whereby general predevelopment and postdevelopment conceptual models of the hydrologic system in other basins may be synthesized. The results will be applied to selected basins for testing, calibration, and modification. The end result of the project will be a better definition of the hydrologic parameters and a better understanding of the workings of the hydrologic system in the alluvial basins. The results will include models that can be used to study the effects of management alternatives and water-resources development on the hydrologic system.

Arizona↗

OPR-PPR, a computer program for assessing data importance to model predictions using linear statistics

The OPR-PPR program calculates the Observation-Prediction (OPR) and Parameter-Prediction (PPR) statistics that can be used to evaluate the relative importance of various kinds of data to simulated predictions. The data considered fall into three categories: (1) existing observations, (2) potential observations, and (3) potential information about parameters. The first two are addressed by the OPR statistic; the third is addressed by the PPR statistic. The statistics are based on linear theory and measure the leverage of the data, which depends on the location, the type, and possibly the time of the data being considered. For example, in a ground-water system the type of data might be a head measurement at a particular location and time. As a measure of leverage, the statistics do not take into account the value of the measurement. As linear measures, the OPR and PPR statistics require minimal computational effort once sensitivities have been calculated. Sensitivities need to be calculated for only one set of parameter values; commonly these are the values estimated through model calibration. OPR-PPR can calculate the OPR and PPR statistics for any mathematical model that produces the necessary OPR-PPR input files. In this report, OPR-PPR capabilities are presented in the context of using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000 and the universal inverse program UCODE_2005. The method used to calculate the OPR and PPR statistics is based on the linear equation for prediction standard deviation. Using sensitivities and other information, OPR-PPR calculates (a) the percent increase in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more existing observations are omitted from the calibration data set; (b) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more potential observations are added to the calibration data set; or (c) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when potential information on one or more parameters is added.

Techniques and Methods↗

Use of gene-expression programming to estimate Manning’s roughness coefficient for high gradient streams

Manning’s roughness coefficient ( n ) has been widely used in the estimation of flood discharges or depths of flow in natural channels. Therefore, the selection of appropriate Manning’s n values is of paramount importance for hydraulic engineers and hydrologists and requires considerable experience, although extensive guidelines are available. Generally, the largest source of error in post-flood estimates (termed indirect measurements) is due to estimates of Manning’s n values, particularly when there has been minimal field verification of flow resistance. This emphasizes the need to improve methods for estimating n values. The objective of this study was to develop a soft computing model in the estimation of the Manning’s n values using 75 discharge measurements on 21 high gradient streams in Colorado, USA. The data are from high gradient (S > 0.002 m/m), cobble- and boulder-bed streams for within bank flows. This study presents Gene-Expression Programming (GEP), an extension of Genetic Programming (GP), as an improved approach to estimate Manning’s roughness coefficient for high gradient streams. This study uses field data and assessed the potential of gene-expression programming (GEP) to estimate Manning’s n values. GEP is a search technique that automatically simplifies genetic programs during an evolutionary processes (or evolves) to obtain the most robust computer program (e.g., simplify mathematical expressions, decision trees, polynomial constructs, and logical expressions). Field measurements collected by Jarrett (J Hydraulic Eng ASCE 110: 1519–1539, 1984 ) were used to train the GEP network and evolve programs. The developed network and evolved programs were validated by using observations that were not involved in training. GEP and ANN-RBF (artificial neural network-radial basis function) models were found to be substantially more effective (e.g., R 2 for testing/validation of GEP and RBF-ANN is 0.745 and 0.65, respectively) than Jarrett’s (J Hydraulic Eng ASCE 110: 1519–1539, 1984 ) equation (R 2 for testing/validation equals 0.58) in predicting the Manning’s n .

Water Resources Management↗

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS Spectral Library Version 7

We have assembled a library of spectra measured with laboratory, field, and airborne spectrometers. The instruments used cover wavelengths from the ultraviolet to the far infrared (0.2 to 200 microns [μm]). Laboratory samples of specific minerals, plants, chemical compounds, and manmade materials were measured. In many cases, samples were purified, so that unique spectral features of a material can be related to its chemical structure. These spectro-chemical links are important for interpreting remotely sensed data collected in the field or from an aircraft or spacecraft. This library also contains physically constructed as well as mathematically computed mixtures. Four different spectrometer types were used to measure spectra in the library: (1) Beckman™ 5270 covering the spectral range 0.2 to 3 µm, (2) standard, high resolution (hi-res), and high-resolution Next Generation (hi-resNG) models of Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD) field portable spectrometers covering the range from 0.35 to 2.5 µm, (3) Nicolet™ Fourier Transform Infra-Red (FTIR) interferometer spectrometers covering the range from about 1.12 to 216 µm, and (4) the NASA Airborne Visible/Infra-Red Imaging Spectrometer AVIRIS, covering the range 0.37 to 2.5 µm. Measurements of rocks, soils, and natural mixtures of minerals were made in laboratory and field settings. Spectra of plant components and vegetation plots, comprising many plant types and species with varying backgrounds, are also in this library. Measurements by airborne spectrometers are included for forested vegetation plots, in which the trees are too tall for measurement by a field spectrometer. This report describes the instruments used, the organization of materials into chapters, metadata descriptions of spectra and samples, and possible artifacts in the spectral measurements. To facilitate greater application of the spectra, the library has also been convolved to selected spectrometer and imaging spectrometers sampling and bandpasses, and resampled to selected broadband multispectral sensors. The native file format of the library is the SPECtrum Processing Routines (SPECPR) data format. This report describes how to access freely available software to read the SPECPR format. To facilitate broader access to the library, we produced generic formats of the spectra and metadata in text files. The library is provided on digital media and online at https://speclab.cr.usgs.gov/spectral-lib.html . A long-term archive of these data are stored on the USGS ScienceBase data server ( https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7RR1WDJ ).

Data Series↗

A vertically averaged spectral model for tidal circulation in estuaries

A frequency dependent computer model based on the two-dimensional vertically averaged shallow-water equations is described for general purpose application in tidally dominated embayments. This model simulates the response of both tides and tidal currents to user-specified geometries and boundary conditions. The mathematical formulation and practical application of the model are discussed in detail. Salient features of the model include the ability to specify: (1) stage at the open boundaries as well as within the model grid, (2) velocities on open boundaries (river inflows and so forth), (3) spatially variable wind stress, and (4) spatially variable bottom friction. Using harmonically analyzed field data as boundary conditions, this model can be used to make real time predictions of tides and tidal currents. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

A two-phase debris-flow model that includes coupled evolution of volume fractions, granular dilatancy, and pore-fluid pressure

Pore-fluid pressure plays a crucial role in debris flows because it counteracts normal stresses at grain contacts and thereby reduces intergranular friction. Pore-pressure feedback accompanying debris deformation is particularly important during the onset of debrisflow motion, when it can dramatically influence the balance of forces governing downslope acceleration. We consider further effects of this feedback by formulating a new, depth-averaged mathematical model that simulates coupled evolution of granular dilatancy, solid and fluid volume fractions, pore-fluid pressure, and flow depth and velocity during all stages of debris-flow motion. To illustrate implications of the model, we use a finite-volume method to compute one-dimensional motion of a debris flow descending a rigid, uniformly inclined slope, and we compare model predictions with data obtained in large-scale experiments at the USGS debris-flow flume. Predictions for the first 1 s of motion show that increasing pore pressures (due to debris contraction) cause liquefaction that enhances flow acceleration. As acceleration continues, however, debris dilation causes dissipation of pore pressures, and this dissipation helps stabilize debris-flow motion. Our numerical predictions of this process match experimental data reasonably well, but predictions might be improved by accounting for the effects of grain-size segregation.

Conference Paper↗

Comparison of methods used to estimate conventional undiscovered petroleum resources: World examples

Various methods for assessing undiscovered oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid resources were compared in support of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Discovery process, linear fractal, parabolic fractal, engineering estimates, PETRIMES, Delphi, and the USGS 2000 methods were compared. Three comparisons of these methods were made in: (1) the Neuquen Basin province, Argentina (different assessors, same input data); (2) provinces in North Africa, Oman, and Yemen (same assessors, different methods); and (3) the Arabian Peninsula, Arabian (Persian) Gulf, and North Sea (different assessors, different methods). A fourth comparison (same assessors, same assessment methods but different geologic models), between results from structural and stratigraphic assessment units in the North Sea used only the USGS 2000 method, and hence compared the type of assessment unit rather than the method. In comparing methods, differences arise from inherent differences in assumptions regarding: (1) the underlying distribution of the parent field population (all fields, discovered and undiscovered), (2) the population of fields being estimated; that is, the entire parent distribution or the undiscovered resource distribution, (3) inclusion or exclusion of large outlier fields; (4) inclusion or exclusion of field (reserve) growth, (5) deterministic or probabilistic models, (6) data requirements, and (7) scale and time frame of the assessment. Discovery process, Delphi subjective consensus, and the USGS 2000 method yield comparable results because similar procedures are employed. In mature areas such as the Neuquen Basin province in Argentina, the linear and parabolic fractal and engineering methods were conservative compared to the other five methods and relative to new reserve additions there since 1995. The PETRIMES method gave the most optimistic estimates in the Neuquen Basin. In less mature areas, the linear fractal method yielded larger estimates relative to other methods. A geologically based model, such as one using the total petroleum system approach, is preferred in that it combines the elements of petroleum source, reservoir, trap and seal with the tectono-stratigraphic history of basin evolution with petroleum resource potential. Care must be taken to demonstrate that homogeneous populations in terms of geology, geologic risk, exploration, and discovery processes are used in the assessment process. The USGS 2000 method (7th Approximation Model, EMC computational program) is robust; that is, it can be used in both mature and immature areas, and provides comparable results when using different geologic models (e.g. stratigraphic or structural) with differing amounts of subdivisions, assessment units, within the total petroleum system. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Conference Paper↗

Suspended-sediment yields and stream-channel processes on Judy's Branch watershed in the St. Louis Metro East region in Illinois

Judy's Branch watershed, a small basin (8.64 square miles) in the St. Louis Metro East region in Illinois, was selected as a pilot site to determine suspended-sediment yields and stream-channel processes in the bluffs and American Bottoms (expansive low-lying valley floor in the region). Suspended-sediment and stream-chan-nel data collected and analyzed for Judy's Branch watershed are presented in this report to establish a baseline of data for water-resource managers to evaluate future stream rehabilitation and manage-ment alternatives. The sediment yield analysis determines the amount of sediment being delivered from the watershed and two subwatersheds: an urban tributary and an undeveloped headwater (pri-marily agricultural). The analysis of the subwater-sheds is used to compare the effects of urbanization on sediment yield to the river. The stream-channel contribution to sediment yield was determined by evaluation of the stream-channel processes operat-ing on the streambed and banks of Judy's Branch watershed. Bank stability was related to hydrologic events, bank stratigraphy, and channel geometry through model development and simulation. The average suspended-sediment yield from two upland subwatersheds (drainage areas of 0.23 and 0.40 sq.mi. was 1,163 tons per square mile per year (tons/sq.mi.-year) between July 2000 and June 2004. The suspended-sediment yield at the Route 157 station was 2,523 tons/sq.mi.-year, near the outlet of Judy's Branch watershed (drainage area = 8.33 sq.mi.). This is approximately 1,360 tons/sq.mi.-year greater than the average at the upland stations for the same time period. This result is unexpected in that, generally, the suspended-sediment yield decreases as the watershed area increases because of sediment stored in the channel and flood plain. The difference indicates a possible increase in yield from a source, such as bank retreat, and supports the concept that land-use changes increase stream-flows that may in turn result in higher rates of bank retreat. Utilizing both bank-rod data and resurveyed cross-section data, it was determined that approxi-mately half of the suspended- sediment yield at Route 157 during July 2000-June 2004 came from bank retreat. Given that bank retreat can be a substantial portion of the sediment yield, understanding bank stability processes is important. Bank stability can be assessed mathematically by computing the factor of safety, which is defined by the ratio of the shear strength (resisting force) along the failure surface and the shear stress (driving gravitational force). Once the factor of safety falls below one, the bank theoretically becomes unstable. Bank-stability conditions were related to hydrologic events, bank type, and channel geometry through model develop-ment and simulation. The most common type of bank in the watershed consists of cohesive alluvial soil deposits overlying a stiff glacial till. A stabil-ity chart for different bank types was developed using a bank-stability analysis. Banks steeper than 70 degrees and higher than from 10 to 11.5 feet (depending on bank type) become at risk for mass failure in the watershed under conditions that pro-mote saturation of the bank and a sudden drop in the river level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions

Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonally, and interannually). Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter shoreline change model to predict coastal erosion and uncertainty due to waves at a variety of time scales. We compare shoreline change projections, simulated with and without ensemble wave forcing conditions by applying ensemble wave time series produced by a computationally efficient statistical downscaling method. We demonstrate a sizable (site-dependent) increase in model uncertainty compared with the unrealistic case of model projections based on a single, deterministic realization (e.g., a single time series) of the wave forcing. We support model-derived uncertainty estimates with a novel mathematical analysis of ensembles of idealized process models. Here, the developed ensemble modeling approach is applied to a well-monitored beach in Tairua, New Zealand. However, the model and uncertainty quantification techniques derived here are generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world.

JGR Earth Surface↗

Simulation of ground-water flow at Anchorage, Alaska, 1955-83

The groundwater system at Anchorage, Alaska was analyzed by using a two-layer three-dimensional mathematical model. By use of existing data, both nonpumping and pumping steady-state conditions and transient conditions were simulated. Under steady-state conditions, calculated directions of groundwater flow were similar to observed flow patterns, and calculated stream discharges generally were within 10% of observed values. However, in many parts of the modeled area computed hydraulic head values were more than 20 ft higher or lower than observed values. Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity are the most sensitive hydraulic parameters under steady-state conditions. Under steady-state conditions, a pumping rate of 18.8 Mgal/d lowers heads in the confined aquifer by as much as 30 ft, but reduces streamflow by less than 5%. Transient conditions show that drawndowns due to withdrawals by production wells follow similar patterns of nearby observation wells. On the basis of analytical techniques, the confining layer does not appear to hold significant quantities of water. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Estimating threshold values for the land disposal of organic solvent-contaminated wastes

This paper describes conceptual and mathematical modeling approaches to evaluate environmentally suitable waste management practices that prevent ground water pollution from landfill disposal of solid wastes contaminated with organic solvents. Threshold values for disposal of solid wastes contaminated with acetone, nitrobenzene, chlorobenzene, and carbon tetrachloride were estimated using a disposal site model using a two-dimensional advection-,dispersion solute transport computer code. For example, the threshold value for disposal of carbon tetrachloride at the site model was approximately 600 g/acre, while the value for acetone was limited only by the characteristics of the waste to prevent free drainage of liquid solvent. The study indicated that the toxicity, mass loading rate, and the mass of solvent initially disposed are critical parameters determining the relative success of a given site to attenuate contaminants to environmentally acceptable levels.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

Partnership of Environmental Education and Research-A compilation of student research, 1999-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tennessee Water Science Center and the College of Engineering and Technology at Tennessee State University developed a Partnership in Environmental Education and Research (PEER) to support environmental research at TSU and to expand the environmental research capabilities of the USGS in Tennessee. The PEER program is driven by the research needs to better define the occurrence, fate, and transport of contaminants in groundwater and surface water. Research in the PEER program has primarily focused on the transport and remediation of organic contamination in karst settings. Research conducted through the program has also expanded to a variety of media and settings. Research areas include contaminant occurrence and transport, natural and enhanced bioremediation, geochemical conditions in karst aquifers, mathematical modeling for contaminant transport and degradation, new methods to evaluate groundwater contamination, the resuspension of bacteria from sediment in streams, the use of bioluminescence and chemiluminescence to identify the presence of contaminants, and contaminant remediation in wetlands. The PEER program has increased research and education opportunities for students in the College of Engineering, Technology, and Computer Science and has provided students with experience in presenting the results of their research. Students in the program have participated in state, regional, national and international conferences with more than 140 presentations since 1998 and more than 40 student awards. The PEER program also supports TSU outreach activities and efforts to increase minority participation in environmental and earth science programs at the undergraduate and graduate levels. TSU students and USGS staff participate in the TSU summer programs for elementary and high school students to promote earth sciences. The 2007 summer camps included more than 130 students from 20 different States and Washington DC.

Tennessee↗

Dimensional effects of inter-phase mass transfer on attenuation of structurally trapped gaseous carbon dioxide in shallow aquifers

Based on experimental evidence and using mathematical modeling, inter-phase mass transfer processes of CO 2 exsolving from and dissolving into water in heterogeneous porous media are investigated under two fundamentally different flow conditions: in a quasi one dimensional vertical column and in a two-dimensional tank with a lateral background water flow, both at laboratory scale. In both cases, the CO 2 dissolved in water under a given overpressure is injected for a certain period at the bottom of the tank, exsolves, and migrates upwards. A layer of fine sand is present in the tanks designed to mimic geological scenarios of accumulation and trapping of exsolved CO 2 in shallow aquifers. Then, clean water is injected and the accumulated CO 2 is dissolved back into the flowing water. The study aims to point out the differences in the mass transfer processes between the quasi-1D and 2D cases using a mathematical model of two-phase compositional flow in heterogeneous porous media calibrated to the experimental datasets, and expose strategies that should be explored in future research. Additionally, temperature variations observed during the 2D experiments allow for analysis of isothermal versus non-isothermal effects on the processes of multiphase CO 2 evolution. The mathematical model is discretized and solved using the mixed hybrid finite element method in 2D that allows for the simulation of both advection- and diffusion-dominated processes accurately.

Journal of Computational Physics↗

A universal Model-R Coupler to facilitate the use of R functions for model calibration and analysis

Mathematical models are useful in various fields of science and engineering. However, it is a challenge to make a model utilize the open and growing functions (e.g., model inversion) on the R platform due to the requirement of accessing and revising the model's source code. To overcome this barrier, we developed a universal tool that aims to convert a model developed in any computer language to an R function using the template and instruction concept of the Parameter ESTimation program (PEST) and the operational structure of the R-Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R-SWAT). The developed tool (Model-R Coupler) is promising because users of any model can connect an external algorithm (written in R) with their model to implement various model behavior analyses (e.g., parameter optimization, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, performance evaluation, and visualization) without accessing or modifying the model's source code.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗