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Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge Workbook Summary

The Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in eastern Maine is currently developing a comprehensive conservation plan (CCP) that will guide Refuge management over the next 15 years. Workbooks were provided to local residents as part of the scoping process in order to get feedback on current and future management issues from the public. The workbooks asked questions regarding residents' use of the Refuge, conservation problems and issues in the region, the acceptability of Refuge management actions, and the importance of, satisfaction with, and acceptability of various activities allowed on the Refuge. The focus of this report is to present the results of the completed workbooks. Because of the small number of returned workbooks, it is not possible to generalize these findings to the broader public, nor is it possible to determine if respondents represent the average user. However, the results do provide an idea of possible conflicts and important issues that the Refuge may have to address in the future. The permitted uses of the Refuge are one possible conflict area. Many respondents were supportive of consumptive recreation (hunting, fishing, and trapping), but a few were adamantly opposed to these sorts of activities on the Refuge. Another issue that received several comments was motorized recreation. While some people felt strongly that ATVs and snowmobiles should be allowed, others felt just as strongly that motorized recreation of any type should not be allowed in the Refuge. Many in the sample were also very concerned about Refuge development and its effects on the human and natural environments. Issues mentioned include the loss of access to private land for consumptive recreation, concern about fish and wildlife habitat degradation, and water quality.

Open-File Report↗

Quantifying regional effects of best management practices on nutrient losses from agricultural lands

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural areas have degraded the water quality of downstream rivers, lakes, and oceans. As a result, investment in the adoption of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) has grown, but assessments of their effectiveness at large spatial scales have lagged. This study applies regional Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed-attributes (SPARROW) models developed for the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast United States to quantify potential regional effects of BMPs on nutrient losses from agricultural lands. These models were used because they account for specific BMPs in the prediction of instream nutrient loads. The BMPs included in the models were cover crops, no-till, and conservation tillage. Sensitivity testing for the BMPs on agricultural nutrient loads was done using simulations that varied the intensity of BMPs specified in each region. When the BMP intensity was increased 50% relative to the 2012 intensity, the predicted agricultural load of total P decreased across all regions (4% to 14%). The predicted reduction in average P yields in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast was 706, 544, and 26 kg km–2, respectively. Increasing BMPs by 50% decreased predicted agricultural total N loads by 3.5% in the Southeast but increased predicted N loads in the Midwest and Northeast by 4.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Model-predicted average N yields increased by 402 kg km–2 and 302 kg km–2 in the Midwest and Northeast, respectively, and decreased in the Southeast by 329 kg km–2. In model simulations, cover crops were more effective at reducing N and P loads than the tillage BMPs despite lower intensity of implementation in 2012. However, at the regional scale of this investigation, implementation of BMPs result in only moderate predicted effects on agricultural nutrient loads

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗

Investigation of water quality and aquatic-community structure in Village and Valley Creeks, City of Birmingham, Jefferson County, Alabama, 2000-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a 16-month investigation of water quality, aquatic-community structure, bed sediment, and fish tissue in Village and Valley Creeks, two urban streams that drain areas of highly intensive residential, commercial, and industrial land use in Birmingham, Alabama. Water-quality data were collected between February 2000 and March 2001 at four sites on Village Creek, three sites on Valley Creek, and at two reference sites near Birmingham—Fivemile Creek and Little Cahaba River, both of which drain less-urbanized areas. Stream samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, fecal bacteria, trace and major elements, pesticides, and selected organic constituents. Bed-sediment and fish-tissue samples were analyzed for trace and major elements, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, and additional organic compounds. Aquatic-community structure was evaluated by conducting one survey of the fish community and in-stream habitat and two surveys of the benthic-invertebrate community. Bed-sediment and fish-tissue samples, benthic-invertebrates, and habitat data were collected between June 2000 and October 2000 at six of the nine water-quality sites; fish communities were evaluated in April and May 2001 at the six sites where habitat and benthic-invertebrate data were collected. The occurrence and distribution of chemical constituents in the water column and bed sediment provided an initial assessment of water quality in the streams. The structure of the aquatic communities, the physical condition of the fish, and the chemical analyses of fish tissue provided an indication of the cumulative effects of water quality on the aquatic biota. Water chemistry was similar at all sites, characterized by strong calcium-bicarbonate component and magnesium components. Median concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were highest at the headwaters of Valley Creek and lowest at the reference site on Fivemile Creek. In Village Creek, median concentrations of nitrite and ammonia increased in a downstream direction. In Valley Creek, median concentrations of nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, organic nitrogen, suspended phosphorus, and orthophosphate decreased in a downstream direction. Median concentrations of Escherichia coli and fecal coliform bacteria were highest at the most upstream site of Valley Creek and lowest at the reference site on Fivemile Creek. Concentrations of enterococci exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criterion in 80 percent of the samples; concentrations of Escherichia coli exceeded the criterion in 56 percent of the samples. Concentrations of bacteria at the downstream sites on Village and Valley Creeks were elevated during high flow rather than low flow, indicating the presence of nonpoint sources. Surface-water samples were analyzed for chemical compounds that are commonly found in wastewater and urban runoff. The median number of wastewater indicators was highest at the most upstream site on Valley Creek and lowest at the reference site on Fivemile Creek. Concentrations of total recoverable cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in surface water exceeded acute and chronic aquatic life criteria in up to 24 percent of the samples that were analyzed for trace and major elements. High concentrations of trace and major elements in the water column were detected most frequently during high flow, indicating the presence of nonpoint sources. Of the 24 pesticides detected in surface water, 17 were herbicides and 7 were insecticides. Atrazine, simazine, and prometon were the most commonly detected herbicides; diazinon, chlorpyrifos, and carbaryl were the most commonly detected insecticides. Concentrations of atrazine, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, and malathion periodically exceeded criteria for the protection of aquatic life. Trace-element priority pollutants, pesticides, and other organic compounds were detected in higher concentrations in bed sediment at the Village and Valley Creek sites than at the reference site on Fivemile Creek. Bed-sediment concentrations of chromium, copper, lead, mercury, and silver were highest at the most upstream site on Valley Creek; and concentrations of cadmium, nickel, selenium, and zinc were highest at the second downstream site on Village Creek. Bed-sediment concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, and zinc from the Village and Valley Creek sites exceeded median concentrations observed nationwide. Concentrations of cadmium, selenium, and zinc were highest in fish-liver tissue samples collected from the second downstream site on Village Creek — concentrations of copper and mercury in fish-liver samples were highest at the most downstream site on Village Creek. The highest total concentration of organic compounds detected in bed-sediment samples occurred at the most upstream site on Valley Creek and the lowest total concentration occurred at Fivemile Creek. In Village Creek, concentrations of 75 percent of the detected organic compounds increased in a downstream direction; in Valley Creek, concentrations of about 70 percent of the detected organic compounds decreased in a downstream direction. Concentrations of 10 organic compounds in bed-sediment samples, including chlordane and p,p'-DDE, exceeded levels considered harmful to aquatic organisms at sites on Village and Valley Creeks. Concentrations of dieldrin, chlordane, and polychlorinated biphenyls in fish-tissue samples exceeded National Academy of Science/National Academy of Engineering guidelines for the protection of fish-eating wildlife. Fish and benthic-invertebrate community structure differed between Village and Valley Creeks and the reference streams. Multiple lines of evidence, including the richness and density of benthic invertebrates as well as fish-community structure, indicate that the aquatic community in Village Creek is similar to that of Valley Creek, but that the integrity of the aquatic communities in both creeks is poor in comparison to that observed at the two reference sites. The abundance of mayflies and the number of EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) taxa (two well-known indicators of good water quality) were negatively correlated with industrial land use. The abundance of midges (an indicator of poor water quality) was positively correlated with industrial land use — and midge density was positively correlated with commercial land use, providing additional evidence that these streams have been negatively affected by urbanization in the basins. The percentage of mosquitofishes (a tolerant species) was positively correlated with commercial land use. In contrast, the numbers of fish species, fish families, and the percentage of sunfishes (intolerant species) were positively correlated with forested land use, indicating that the more diverse fish communities were found in basins with a higher percentage of forested land. The concentrations of 12 water-quality constituents (including several nitrogen species, chloride, copper, and molybdenum, and the detection frequency of wastewater indicators) and 18 organic compounds detected in bed sediment were positively correlated with industrial land use. Mercury and molybdenum concentrations detected in fish-liver tissue also were positively correlated with industrial land use. Bed-sediment and water-quality constituents that were found to have significant correlations with land use often were found to be correlated with many biological indicators, further supporting the link between increased urbanization and changes in aquatic-community structure. The water quality and aquatic-community structure in Village and Valley Creeks are degraded in comparison to streams flowing through less-urbanized areas. Low community richness and increased density of certain species within the fish and benthic-invertebrate communities indicate that degradation has occurred during an extended period of time. Decreased diversity in the aquatic communities and elevated concentrations of trace elements and organic contaminants in the water column, bed sediment, and fish tissues at Village and Valley Creeks are indicative of the effects of urbanization. The degree of degradation may be related to point and nonpoint sources of contamination originating within the basins. Industrial land use, in particular, was significantly correlated to elevated contaminant levels in the water column, in bed sediment, in fish tissue, and to the declining health of the benthic-invertebrate communities. The results of the 16-month study have long-range watershed management implications, demonstrating the association of urban development and stream degradation. These data can serve as a baseline from which to determine the effectiveness of stream-restoration programs.

Alabama↗

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

Assessing vulnerability and threat from housing development to Conservation Opportunity Areas in State Wildlife Action Plans across the United States

Targeting conservation actions efficiently requires information on vulnerability of and threats to conservation targets, but such information is rarely included in conservation plans. In the U.S., recently updated State Wildlife Action Plans identify Conservation Opportunity Areas (COAs) selected by each state as priority areas for future action to conserve wildlife and habitats. The question is how threatened these COAs are by habitat loss and degradation, major threats to wildlife in the U.S. that are often caused by housing development. We compiled spatial data on COAs across the conterminous U.S. We estimated COA vulnerability using current land protection status and COA threat using projected housing growth derived from U.S. census data. COAs comprise 1–46% of each region. Across regions, 28–82% of the area within COAs is vulnerable to future housing development, and 5–55% and 7–23% of that vulnerable COA area is threatened by projected dense housing and rapid housing growth, respectively. COA vulnerability is greatest in the East. Threat from dense housing and rapid housing growth is highest in the Northeast and Pacific Southwest, respectively. Results highlight that many areas identified as important for reducing wildlife listings under the U.S. Endangered Species Act may need further protection to fulfill their conservation goals because they are both vulnerable to and threatened by future housing development. Our analyses can help practitioners target local government outreach, land protection efforts, and landscape-scale mitigation programs to decrease future COA loss from housing development, and could be expanded to address additional COA threats (e.g., wildfire, invasive species).

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

Hydrologic variability and the application of Index of Biotic Integrity metrics to wetlands: a Great Lakes evaluation

Interest by land-management and regulatory agencies in using biological indicators to detect wetland degradation, coupled with ongoing use of this approach to assess water quality in streams, led to the desire to develop and evaluate an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) for wetlands that could be used to categorize the level of degradation. We undertook this challenge with data from coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes, which have been degraded by a variety of human disturbances. We studied six barrier beach wetlands in western Lake Superior, six drowned-river-mouth wetlands along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, and six open shoreline wetlands in Saginaw Bay of Lake Huron. Plant, fish, and invertebrate communities were sampled in each wetland. The resulting data were assessed in various forms against gradients of human disturbance to identify potential metrics that could be used in IBI development. Our results suggested that the metrics proposed as potential components of an IBI for barrier beach wetlands of Lake Superior held promise. The metrics for Lake Michigan drowned-river-mouth wetlands were inconsistent in identifying gradients of disturbance; those for Lake Huron open embayment wetlands were yet more inconsistent. Despite the potential displayed by the Lake Superior results within the year sampled, we concluded that an IBI for use in Great Lakes wetlands would not be valid unless separate scoring ranges were derived for each of several sequences of water-level histories. Variability in lake levels from year to year can produce variability in data and affect the reproducibility of data collected, primarily due to extreme changes in plant communities and the faunal habitat they provide. Substantially different results could be obtained in the same wetland in different years as a result of the response to lake-level change, with no change in the level of human disturbance. Additional problems included limited numbers of comparable sites, potential lack of undisturbed reference sites, and variable effects of different disturbance types. We also evaluated our conclusions with respect to hydrologic variability and other major natural disturbances affecting wetlands in other regions. We concluded that after segregation of wetland types by geographic, geomorphic, and hydrologic features, a functional IBI may be possible for wetlands with relatively stable hydrology. However, an IBI for wetlands with unpredictable yet recurring influences of climate-induced, long-term high water periods, droughts, or drought-related fires or weather-related catastrophic floods or high winds (hurricanes) would also require differing scales of measurement for years that differ in the length of time since the last major natural disturbance. A site-specific, detailed ecological analysis of biological indicators may indeed be of value in determining the quality or status of wetlands, but we recommend that IBI scores not be used unless the scoring ranges are calibrated for the specific hydrologic history pre-dating any sampling year.

Wetlands↗

Recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer hydrologically associated with Barton springs in the Austin area, Texas

The Edwards aquifer extends in a narrow belt from Bell County in the northeast to Kinney County in the southwest (index map) and provides water for at least nine counties in south-central Texas. Hydrologic boundaries divide the Edwards aquifer in the Austin area for which Barton Springs is the major discharge point. This part of the Edwards aquifer provides the municipal, industrial, domestic, and agricultural water supplies for about 30,000 people in the Austin area (southern Travis and northern Hays counties). Discharge from Barton Springs sustains streamflow at the mouth of Barton Creek and flows into Town Lake. Much of the land use within the outcrop area of the Edwards aquifer near Austin is rapidly changing from natural woodland and grassland to commercial and residential developments. Because urban development can result in a substantial degradation of the quality of water that recharges the aquifer, the extent of the recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer was delineated to provide information to the City of Austin for their use in formulating a plan for protecting and managing groundwater quality. The purpose of this report is to define and delineate the areal extent of the recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer in southern Travis and northern Hays Counties. The areal boundary of the recharge zone was determined by: (1) geologic mapping of the aquifer area; (2) interpretation of aerial photographs; (3) field verification of existing geologic maps; and (4) streamflow-loss studies.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Supplementing seed banks to rehabilitate disturbed Mojave Desert shrublands: where do all the seeds go?

Revegetation of degraded arid lands often involves supplementing impoverished seed banks and improving the seedbed, yet these approaches frequently fail. To understand these failures, we tracked the fates of seeds for six shrub species that were broadcast across two contrasting surface disturbances common to the Mojave Desert—sites compacted by concentrated vehicle use and trenched sites where topsoil and subsurface soils were mixed. We evaluated seedbed treatments that enhance soil-seed contact (tackifier) and create surface roughness while reducing soil bulk density (harrowing). We also explored whether seed harvesting by granivores and seedling suppression by non-native annuals influence the success of broadcast seeding in revegetating degraded shrublands. Ten weeks after treatments, seeds readily moved off of experimental plots in untreated compacted sites, but seed movements were reduced 32% by tackifier and 55% through harrowing. Harrowing promoted seedling emergence in compacted sites, particularly for the early-colonizing species Encelia farinosa , but tackifier was largely ineffective. The inherent surface roughness of trenched sites retained three times the number of seeds than compacted sites, but soil mixing during trench development likely altered the suitability of the seedbed thus resulting in poor seedling emergence. Non-native annuals had little influence on seed fates during our study. In contrast, the prevalence of harvester ants increased seed removal on compacted sites, whereas rodent activity influenced removal on trenched sites. Future success of broadcast seeding in arid lands depends on evaluating disturbance characteristics prior to seeding and selecting appropriate species and seasons for application.

Mojave Desert↗

Distribution of breeding Arizona Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus ) in the southwestern United States: Past, present, and future

The Arizona Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus) breeds in desert grasslands of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico in the US, and in adjacent parts of northern Sonora and Chihuahua, Mexico. Roads that were surveyed in 1982 and 1987 in Arizona and New Mexico were relocated and roadside survey protocols were repeated in 2004 and 2005 to identify changes in distribution or abundance of the subspecies during the subsequent 17 yr. The Sonoita and San Rafael valleys in Arizona and the Animas Valley in New Mexico remain as primary population centers, supporting the highest mean numbers of singing males per stop, as well as the largest populations of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows in the US. Mean number of singing males per stop was highest in the San Rafael Valley. Mean number of singing males per survey stop showed an increasing pattern from 1982–1987 and a subsequent decline to the present (2004–2005). Present bird densities are intermediate in value between 1982 and 1987 values. Small populations remain in the Altar, San Pedro, Sulphur Springs, and San Bernardino valleys in Arizona. The valleys evaluated in this and historical surveys represent the areas in which almost all Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows breed in the US; if any additional areas exist, they support peripheral, small, or remnant populations. Although historic, current, and future land use, and current and future threats differ among valleys, the primary factors posing threats to the future of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrow populations appear to be loss and/or degradation of habitat due to exurban development, overgrazing, and the effects of long-term drought.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

Ecological role and services of tropical mangrove ecosystems: a reassessment

Aim To reassess the capacity of mangroves for ecosystem services in the light of recent data. Location Global mangrove ecosystems. Methods We review four long-standing roles of mangroves: (1) carbon dynamics – export or sink; (2) nursery role; (3) shoreline protection; (4) land-building capacity. The origins of pertinent hypotheses, current understanding and gaps in our knowledge are highlighted with reference to biogeographic, geographic and socio-economic influences. Results The role of mangroves as C sinks needs to be evaluated for a wide range of biogeographic regions and forest conditions. Mangrove C assimilation may be under-estimated because of flawed methodology and scanty data on key components of C dynamics. Peri-urban mangroves may be manipulated to provide local offsets for C emission. The nursery function of mangroves is not ubiquitous but varies with spatio-temporal accessibility. Connectivity and complementarity of mangroves and adjacent habitats enhance their nursery function through trophic relay and ontogenetic migrations. The effectiveness of mangroves for coastal protection depends on factors at landscape/geomorphic to community scales and local/species scales. Shifts in species due to climate change, forest degradation and loss of habitat connectivity may reduce the protective capacity of mangroves. Early views of mangroves as land builders (especially lateral expansion) were questionable. Evidence now indicates that mangroves, once established, directly influence vertical land development by enhancing sedimentation and/or by direct organic contributions to soil volume (peat formation) in some settings. Main conclusions Knowledge of thresholds, spatio-temporal scaling and variability due to geographic, biogeographic and socio-economic settings will improve the management of mangrove ecosystem services. Many drivers respond to global trends in climate change and local changes such as urbanization. While mangroves have traditionally been managed for subsistence, future governance models must involve partnerships between local custodians of mangroves and offsite beneficiaries of the services.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture‐dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation‐wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality‐related stresses. Region‐specific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In the Western Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain and Western Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and planning for the mitigation of agricultural land use impacts on stream ecosystems should be regionally focused.

Ecological Applications↗

Hydrogeology and Water Quality of the Pepacton Reservoir Watershed in Southeastern New York. Part 3. Responses of Stream Base-Flow Chemistry to Hydrogeologic Factors and Nonpoint-Sources of Contamination

Base-flow samples were collected seasonally from 20 small streams in the 372-square-mile Pepacton Reservoir watershed to evaluate the effects of hydrogeologic factors and nonpoint sources of contamination on the chemical composition of ground-water discharge. The reservoir provides part of New York City?s water supply. The subbasins represented one of three general types of land use, each with at least 45 percent forested area (mostly on the hillsides): farmed (dairy) land, formerly farmed land with low-density residential development, or forested land with little or no development. The subbasin areas ranged from 0.38 to 10.23 square miles. All streams were sampled in December 2000 and in May, July, and October 2001. Three of the sites were designated as landuse- index sites and were sampled as many as five additional times during the study. No samples exceeded state or federal drinking-water standards for chloride, sodium, nitrate, orthophosphate, herbicides, or herbicide degradates. The chemical composition of base-flow samples was classified into major-ion water types, which were broadly defined as naturally occurring and road-salt-affected water types. About one-third of the base-flow samples were roadsalt- affected types. Natural water types were differentiated as dilute or evolved. Dilute waters have bicarbonate and sulfate as dominant anions and evolved waters have only bicarbonate as a dominant anion. Dilute water types indicate relatively short ground-water residence times or contact with unreactive aquifer material. Evolved waters have either longer ground-water residence time or contact with more reactive aquifer material than dilute ground waters. The larger subbasins with wider valley-bottom areas were more likely to have evolved water types than small subbasins with little floodplain development. Positive correlations between selected constituents and the intensity of nonpoint sources emphasize the connection between land use, shallow ground-water quality, and stream base-flow water quality. Chloride and sodium, which are relatively conservative constituents, showed strong linear relations with annual estimates of road-salt application during all four sampling periods. Nonconservative constituents, such as the nutrients nitrate and orthophosphate, showed linear relations with manure production rate among farmed basins, but only at specific times of the year because of losses through biologic activity. Nitrate showed the strongest relation in winter because losses to biological activity were at a minimum. Orthophosphate showed the strongest relation in early summer, when hydrologic and chemical conditions appear to favor release from sediments. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition is an additional source of nitrogen that can be released from mature or stressed forested basins. Detections of herbicides (atrazine, metolachlor, simazine) and herbicide degradates ( Metolachlor ESA, alachlor ESA, deethylatrazine) in base flow were closely correlated with subbasins in which corn was grown during the study. Atrazine was detected at the farmed index site only in early summer, after application and two rain storms. This detection corresponded to the peak orthophosphate concentration. In contrast, metolachlor ESA was detected in nearly all farmedindex- subbasin samples and peaked in late summer, when percent base-flow contributions from farmed valley-bottom areas were likely highest. The implications of this study are that seasonal and more frequent base-flow surveys of water chemistry from small stream basins can help refine the understanding of local hydrogeologic systems and define the effects of nonpointsource contamination on base-flow water quality. The concentration of most nonpoint sources in valley-bottom or lower-hillside areas helped indicate the relative contributions of water from hillside and valley-bottom areas at different times of year. The positive correlations between the intensity of nonpoint-source activities and nonpoint-source constituents in base flow underscores the link between land use (nonpoint sources), ground-water quality, and surface-water quality.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Investigating the influence of forest disturbance on grizzly bear habitat ecology and fitness in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem

The Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population of northwest Montana was listed as threatened in 1975 under the Endangered Species Act. Recovery objectives for this population have centered predominantly on limiting humancaused mortality and protecting habitat. Consequently, empirically informed habitat management has been an integral component of grizzly bear recovery in the NCDE and will remain a major component of future conservation and management efforts. The NCDE has a long history of forest management and wildfire activity. Studies have demonstrated both positive and negative effects of timber harvest on grizzly bears. Grizzly bears are associated with forest edges and early successional forests (Munro et al. 2006, Stewart et al. 2013), which often have higher abundances of preferable forage (Mace and Jonkel 1986, Souliere et al. 2020). Forest management activities that reinstate early successional vegetation can thus have a positive effect on forage quality for grizzly bears (Nielsen et al. 2004). However, roadbuilding and human access associated with timber harvest and silvicultural treatments can have a negative effect on grizzly bear habitat selection and survival (Kasworm and Manley 1990, Mace et al. 1996, 2012, Schwartz et al. 2010, Boulanger and Stenhouse 2014), potentially negating the positive effects of timber harvest and certain silvicultural treatments. Wildfire disturbance is likely to have variable effects on grizzly bears. Post-fire, early successional vegetation provides high quality forage, and grizzly bears likely select these postfire stands to take advantage of increases in graminoids, forbs, roots, ungulate prey, and fruiting shrubs that emerge post disturbance (Mace and Jonkel 1986, Hamer and Herrero 1987, Best et al. 2024). On larger temporal scales, historical variation in spatial patterning of infrequent, predominantly stand-replacing fires in the NCDE, has contributed to heterogeneous landscape conditions (Hood et al. 2021). Such conditions likely benefit grizzly bears by providing various landscape features required for denning, access to foods, and security. However, more frequent, and larger high severity fires are projected to increase throughout the Rocky Mountains (Abatzoglou and Williams 2016, Parks and Abatzoglou 2020, Higuera et al. 2021), which could reduce cover and impact regrowth of herbaceous vegetation (Bard and Cain 2020). Future fire activity could change the distribution of food resources across the landscape and potentially reduce expected fire benefits to grizzly bears. Our objectives are to investigate the effects of forest disturbance from timber harvest and fire on grizzly bears in the NCDE to understand conditions that promote or degrade grizzly bear habitat quality. Balancing grizzly bear conservation while managing forest disturbances is a complex and dynamic challenge for land managers. This proposed research could help address this challenge by providing information to assist managers in developing strategies that balance species conservation and forest management objectives.

Montana↗

An initial comparison of pesticides and amphibian pathogens between natural and created wetlands in the New Jersey Pinelands, 2014–16

A study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Pinelands Commission and Montclair State University, was designed to compare pesticide concentrations and the presence and prevalence of amphibian pathogens between natural ponds and two types of created wetlands, excavated ponds and stormwater basins, throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. The study described herein is part of a larger study by the New Jersey Pinelands Commission designed to compare the functional equivalency of natural and created wetlands throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. Sites were selected on the basis of land-use classifications within a 500-meter radius around each wetland from a pool of natural ponds, excavated ponds, and stormwater basins determined by the New Jersey Pinelands Commission. Water, bed-sediment, anuran-food, and composite larval-anuran-tissue samples were collected from four reference (minimum land-use effects) and four degraded (maximum land-use effects) sites from each wetland type for a total of 24 ponds or basins throughout the New Jersey Pinelands during 2014–16. Prevalence of Ranavirus was determined on the basis of tail clips collected from 60 individual larval anurans in each wetland, and 10 animals from each wetland also were swabbed for the presence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Other constituents measured included turbidity, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, percent organic carbon in sediment, and composite larval-anuran lipid content. The amount of altered land (percent agricultural plus percent developed) ranged from 0 to 62.4 percent for the natural ponds, 0 to 63.6 percent for the excavated ponds, and 23.3 to 80.2 percent for the stormwater basins. The herbicides atrazine and metolachlor were observed in 60 and 89 percent of the water samples, respectively. The insecticide bifenthrin was the most frequently detected current-use pesticide (greater than 25 percent of the samples) in bed-sediment, anuran-food, and composite larval-anuran-tissue samples. The legacy insecticide p,p' -DDT and its primary degradates p,p' -DDD and p,p' -DDE were the most frequently detected compounds in bed-sediment and anuran-food samples (32–76 percent in sediment samples and 24–72 percent in anuran-food samples). Significantly, greater numbers of pesticides and higher total pesticide concentrations were observed in stormwater basins than in natural and excavated ponds. Reference wetlands had fewer pesticides and lower total pesticide concentrations compared to degraded wetlands, indicating a positive relation between percent altered land and pesticides throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. Ranavirus was observed in larvae from 4 wetlands, including 1 reference natural pond, 1 degraded natural pond, and 2 degraded stormwater basins, with prevalence ranging from 3 to 43 percent. Bd was detected in swabs from 18 animals and in 4 natural ponds (1 reference and 3 degraded), 3 excavated ponds (all reference), and 2 stormwater basins (1 reference and 1 degraded); however, detection probability was low. In the wetlands with Bd detections, between 10 and 30 percent (between 1 and 3) of the animal’s swabbed tested positive for Bd. Owing to the limited number of positive detections for both Bd and Ranavirus , no statistical comparisons between wetland types and land-use classifications were possible.

New Jersey↗

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

Land cover and land use change

Climate can affect and be affected by changes in land cover (the physical features that cover the land such as trees or pavement) and land use (human management and activities on land, such as mining or recreation). A forest, for instance, would likely include tree cover but could also include areas of recent tree removals currently covered by open grass areas. Land cover and use are inherently coupled: changes in land-use practices can change land cover, and land cover enables specific land uses. Understanding how land cover, use, condition, and management vary in space and time is challenging. Changes in land cover can occur in response to both human and climate drivers. For example, demand for new settlements often results in the permanent loss of natural and working lands, which can result in localized changes in weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation. Aggregated over large areas, these changes have the potential to influence Earth’s climate by altering regional and global circulation patterns, changing the albedo (reflectivity) of Earth’s surface, and changing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. Conversely, climate change can also influence land cover, resulting in a loss of forest cover from climate-related increases in disturbances, the expansion of woody vegetation into grasslands, and the loss of beaches due to coastal erosion amplified by rises in sea level. Land use is also changed by both human and climate drivers. Land-use decisions are traditionally based on short-term economic factors. Land-use changes are increasingly being influenced by distant forces due to the globalization of many markets. Land use can also change due to local, state, and national policies, such as programs designed to remove cultivation from highly erodible land to mitigate degradation, legislation to address sea level rise in local comprehensive plans, or policies that reduce the rate of timber harvest on federal lands. Technological innovation has also influenced land-use change, with the expansion of cultivated lands from the development of irrigation technologies and, more recently, decreases in demand for agricultural land due to increases in crop productivity. The recent expansion of oil and gas extraction activities throughout large areas of the United States demonstrates how policy, economics, and technology can collectively influence and change land use and land cover. Decisions about land use, cover, and management can help determine society’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Report↗

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

Quantifying regional ecological dynamics using agency monitoring data, ecological site descriptions, and ecological site groups

Information about what ecological conditions are likely, causes or drivers of degradation, and potential management actions to restore degraded lands may support land conservation and restoration decisions. State-and-transition models (STMs) describe persistent plant and ecological conditions that are possible (the “state”) within a given abiotic setting and drivers or actions that can cause shifts between states (the “transitions”). These primarily conceptual models are widely used to inform resource and conservation decisions. Data-driven STMs have been developed for some lands, but not at regional or national scales. Here, we demonstrate a new repeatable workflow for developing data-driven STMs in the United States (US). The approach leverages predictive maps of Ecological Site Groups (ESGs), extensive field-based Federal monitoring databases, information from Ecological Site Description (ESD) STMs, soil erosion models, remotely sensed productivity, and other available spatial information (fire, land protection, and drought) to provide context and descriptions of the data-driven states, including likely drivers of transitions. Results of this workflow applied to one dryland ESG in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the southwestern US suggest that an Invaded state (16% of 1352 plots) and some occurrences of a Grassland state (30% of plots) are in a degraded or at-risk condition with reduced ecosystem services. The most common drivers of state transitions in the associated ESDs ( n = 26) are related to livestock grazing and fire. The Invaded state in the ESG has evidence of degraded habitat quality and accelerated run-off while the Grassland state occurrences show reduced richness, productivity, and elevated erosion risk by wind. Areas subject to wildfire and with lower protection status had greater probability of Invaded state occurrence, generally supporting drivers in ESDs. The workflow presented here can serve as a template for describing ecological dynamics at regional scales, and support prioritization of land for conservation and climate adaptation activities.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗