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Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture‐dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation‐wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality‐related stresses. Region‐specific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In the Western Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain and Western Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and planning for the mitigation of agricultural land use impacts on stream ecosystems should be regionally focused.

Ecological Applications

Hydrogeology and Water Quality of the Pepacton Reservoir Watershed in Southeastern New York. Part 3. Responses of Stream Base-Flow Chemistry to Hydrogeologic Factors and Nonpoint-Sources of Contamination

Base-flow samples were collected seasonally from 20 small streams in the 372-square-mile Pepacton Reservoir watershed to evaluate the effects of hydrogeologic factors and nonpoint sources of contamination on the chemical composition of ground-water discharge. The reservoir provides part of New York City?s water supply. The subbasins represented one of three general types of land use, each with at least 45 percent forested area (mostly on the hillsides): farmed (dairy) land, formerly farmed land with low-density residential development, or forested land with little or no development. The subbasin areas ranged from 0.38 to 10.23 square miles. All streams were sampled in December 2000 and in May, July, and October 2001. Three of the sites were designated as landuse- index sites and were sampled as many as five additional times during the study. No samples exceeded state or federal drinking-water standards for chloride, sodium, nitrate, orthophosphate, herbicides, or herbicide degradates. The chemical composition of base-flow samples was classified into major-ion water types, which were broadly defined as naturally occurring and road-salt-affected water types. About one-third of the base-flow samples were roadsalt- affected types. Natural water types were differentiated as dilute or evolved. Dilute waters have bicarbonate and sulfate as dominant anions and evolved waters have only bicarbonate as a dominant anion. Dilute water types indicate relatively short ground-water residence times or contact with unreactive aquifer material. Evolved waters have either longer ground-water residence time or contact with more reactive aquifer material than dilute ground waters. The larger subbasins with wider valley-bottom areas were more likely to have evolved water types than small subbasins with little floodplain development. Positive correlations between selected constituents and the intensity of nonpoint sources emphasize the connection between land use, shallow ground-water quality, and stream base-flow water quality. Chloride and sodium, which are relatively conservative constituents, showed strong linear relations with annual estimates of road-salt application during all four sampling periods. Nonconservative constituents, such as the nutrients nitrate and orthophosphate, showed linear relations with manure production rate among farmed basins, but only at specific times of the year because of losses through biologic activity. Nitrate showed the strongest relation in winter because losses to biological activity were at a minimum. Orthophosphate showed the strongest relation in early summer, when hydrologic and chemical conditions appear to favor release from sediments. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition is an additional source of nitrogen that can be released from mature or stressed forested basins. Detections of herbicides (atrazine, metolachlor, simazine) and herbicide degradates ( Metolachlor ESA, alachlor ESA, deethylatrazine) in base flow were closely correlated with subbasins in which corn was grown during the study. Atrazine was detected at the farmed index site only in early summer, after application and two rain storms. This detection corresponded to the peak orthophosphate concentration. In contrast, metolachlor ESA was detected in nearly all farmedindex- subbasin samples and peaked in late summer, when percent base-flow contributions from farmed valley-bottom areas were likely highest. The implications of this study are that seasonal and more frequent base-flow surveys of water chemistry from small stream basins can help refine the understanding of local hydrogeologic systems and define the effects of nonpointsource contamination on base-flow water quality. The concentration of most nonpoint sources in valley-bottom or lower-hillside areas helped indicate the relative contributions of water from hillside and valley-bottom areas at different times of year. The positive correlations between the intensity of nonpoint-source activities and nonpoint-source constituents in base flow underscores the link between land use (nonpoint sources), ground-water quality, and surface-water quality.

Scientific Investigations Report

An initial comparison of pesticides and amphibian pathogens between natural and created wetlands in the New Jersey Pinelands, 2014–16

A study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Pinelands Commission and Montclair State University, was designed to compare pesticide concentrations and the presence and prevalence of amphibian pathogens between natural ponds and two types of created wetlands, excavated ponds and stormwater basins, throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. The study described herein is part of a larger study by the New Jersey Pinelands Commission designed to compare the functional equivalency of natural and created wetlands throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. Sites were selected on the basis of land-use classifications within a 500-meter radius around each wetland from a pool of natural ponds, excavated ponds, and stormwater basins determined by the New Jersey Pinelands Commission. Water, bed-sediment, anuran-food, and composite larval-anuran-tissue samples were collected from four reference (minimum land-use effects) and four degraded (maximum land-use effects) sites from each wetland type for a total of 24 ponds or basins throughout the New Jersey Pinelands during 2014–16. Prevalence of Ranavirus was determined on the basis of tail clips collected from 60 individual larval anurans in each wetland, and 10 animals from each wetland also were swabbed for the presence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Other constituents measured included turbidity, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, percent organic carbon in sediment, and composite larval-anuran lipid content. The amount of altered land (percent agricultural plus percent developed) ranged from 0 to 62.4 percent for the natural ponds, 0 to 63.6 percent for the excavated ponds, and 23.3 to 80.2 percent for the stormwater basins. The herbicides atrazine and metolachlor were observed in 60 and 89 percent of the water samples, respectively. The insecticide bifenthrin was the most frequently detected current-use pesticide (greater than 25 percent of the samples) in bed-sediment, anuran-food, and composite larval-anuran-tissue samples. The legacy insecticide p,p' -DDT and its primary degradates p,p' -DDD and p,p' -DDE were the most frequently detected compounds in bed-sediment and anuran-food samples (32–76 percent in sediment samples and 24–72 percent in anuran-food samples). Significantly, greater numbers of pesticides and higher total pesticide concentrations were observed in stormwater basins than in natural and excavated ponds. Reference wetlands had fewer pesticides and lower total pesticide concentrations compared to degraded wetlands, indicating a positive relation between percent altered land and pesticides throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. Ranavirus was observed in larvae from 4 wetlands, including 1 reference natural pond, 1 degraded natural pond, and 2 degraded stormwater basins, with prevalence ranging from 3 to 43 percent. Bd was detected in swabs from 18 animals and in 4 natural ponds (1 reference and 3 degraded), 3 excavated ponds (all reference), and 2 stormwater basins (1 reference and 1 degraded); however, detection probability was low. In the wetlands with Bd detections, between 10 and 30 percent (between 1 and 3) of the animal’s swabbed tested positive for Bd. Owing to the limited number of positive detections for both Bd and Ranavirus , no statistical comparisons between wetland types and land-use classifications were possible.

New Jersey

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California

Land cover and land use change

Climate can affect and be affected by changes in land cover (the physical features that cover the land such as trees or pavement) and land use (human management and activities on land, such as mining or recreation). A forest, for instance, would likely include tree cover but could also include areas of recent tree removals currently covered by open grass areas. Land cover and use are inherently coupled: changes in land-use practices can change land cover, and land cover enables specific land uses. Understanding how land cover, use, condition, and management vary in space and time is challenging. Changes in land cover can occur in response to both human and climate drivers. For example, demand for new settlements often results in the permanent loss of natural and working lands, which can result in localized changes in weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation. Aggregated over large areas, these changes have the potential to influence Earth’s climate by altering regional and global circulation patterns, changing the albedo (reflectivity) of Earth’s surface, and changing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. Conversely, climate change can also influence land cover, resulting in a loss of forest cover from climate-related increases in disturbances, the expansion of woody vegetation into grasslands, and the loss of beaches due to coastal erosion amplified by rises in sea level. Land use is also changed by both human and climate drivers. Land-use decisions are traditionally based on short-term economic factors. Land-use changes are increasingly being influenced by distant forces due to the globalization of many markets. Land use can also change due to local, state, and national policies, such as programs designed to remove cultivation from highly erodible land to mitigate degradation, legislation to address sea level rise in local comprehensive plans, or policies that reduce the rate of timber harvest on federal lands. Technological innovation has also influenced land-use change, with the expansion of cultivated lands from the development of irrigation technologies and, more recently, decreases in demand for agricultural land due to increases in crop productivity. The recent expansion of oil and gas extraction activities throughout large areas of the United States demonstrates how policy, economics, and technology can collectively influence and change land use and land cover. Decisions about land use, cover, and management can help determine society’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Report

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia

Quantifying regional ecological dynamics using agency monitoring data, ecological site descriptions, and ecological site groups

Information about what ecological conditions are likely, causes or drivers of degradation, and potential management actions to restore degraded lands may support land conservation and restoration decisions. State-and-transition models (STMs) describe persistent plant and ecological conditions that are possible (the “state”) within a given abiotic setting and drivers or actions that can cause shifts between states (the “transitions”). These primarily conceptual models are widely used to inform resource and conservation decisions. Data-driven STMs have been developed for some lands, but not at regional or national scales. Here, we demonstrate a new repeatable workflow for developing data-driven STMs in the United States (US). The approach leverages predictive maps of Ecological Site Groups (ESGs), extensive field-based Federal monitoring databases, information from Ecological Site Description (ESD) STMs, soil erosion models, remotely sensed productivity, and other available spatial information (fire, land protection, and drought) to provide context and descriptions of the data-driven states, including likely drivers of transitions. Results of this workflow applied to one dryland ESG in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the southwestern US suggest that an Invaded state (16% of 1352 plots) and some occurrences of a Grassland state (30% of plots) are in a degraded or at-risk condition with reduced ecosystem services. The most common drivers of state transitions in the associated ESDs ( n = 26) are related to livestock grazing and fire. The Invaded state in the ESG has evidence of degraded habitat quality and accelerated run-off while the Grassland state occurrences show reduced richness, productivity, and elevated erosion risk by wind. Areas subject to wildfire and with lower protection status had greater probability of Invaded state occurrence, generally supporting drivers in ESDs. The workflow presented here can serve as a template for describing ecological dynamics at regional scales, and support prioritization of land for conservation and climate adaptation activities.

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Changes in nitrogen loading to the Northeast Creek Estuary, Bar Harbor, Maine, 2000 to 2010

Since 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service have been monitoring land use and nitrogen loading in a 26.3-square-kilometer (10-square-mile) estuarine watershed at Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine. The initial study linking land use and nitrogen loads entering the Northeast Creek estuary was completed in 2000, and findings were used to develop simulations of nitrogen loading to the estuary, thereby helping to inform local land-use planning decisions. At that time, the amount of nitrogen entering the Northeast Creek estuary was relatively small, and no evidence of nutrient-related degradation was observed in the Ruppia -dominated estuarine ecosystem. A new round of water-quality monitoring and streamflow measurements was conducted to determine nitrogen loading from 2008 to 2011 as a means to evaluate the effects of increased rural residential housing within the watershed since 2000. On the basis of a 2.6-percent increase in residential-housing land use in the watershed from 2000 to 2010, simulations of nitrogen export predicted a 7-percent increase in nitrogen loading to Northeast Creek. The measurement-based loads estimated for the Northeast Creek tributaries, however, increased much more than predicted, from 1.89 kilograms per hectare per year (kg/ha/yr) in 2000 to 3.12 kg/ha/yr in the time period centered on 2010—a 66-percent increase. This increase is likely primarily a result of the prevalence of much wetter conditions during the 2008–11 sampling period than during the earlier sampling period. In addition to increasing the physical transport of nitrogen in the watershed, wet climatic conditions have been shown in other studies to increase the rates of biotic and abiotic processes that control nitrogen export from northern-latitude forested watersheds. The new loading estimates, however, also support the possibility that some portion of the increase in nitrogen loading results from the observed land-use changes, and that the increase in residential housing has, in fact, contributed to the observed increase in nitrogen loading.

Maine

Quality of groundwater in the Denver Basin aquifer system, Colorado, 2003-5

Groundwater resources from alluvial and bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin are critical for municipal, domestic, and agricultural uses in Colorado along the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. Rapid and widespread urban development, primarily along the western boundary of the Denver Basin, has approximately doubled the population since about 1970, and much of the population depends on groundwater for water supply. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted groundwater-quality studies during 2003–5 in the Denver Basin aquifer system to characterize water quality of shallow groundwater at the water table and of the bedrock aquifers, which are important drinking-water resources. For the Denver Basin, water-quality constituents of concern for human health or because they might otherwise limit use of water include total dissolved solids, fluoride, sulfate, nitrate, iron, manganese, selenium, radon, uranium, arsenic, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. For the water-table studies, two monitoring-well networks were installed and sampled beneath agricultural (31 wells) and urban (29 wells) land uses at or just below the water table in either alluvial material or near-surface bedrock. For the bedrock-aquifer studies, domestic- and municipal-supply wells completed in the bedrock aquifers were sampled. The bedrock aquifers, stratigraphically from youngest (shallowest) to oldest (deepest), are the Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers. The extensive dataset collected from wells completed in the bedrock aquifers (79 samples) provides the opportunity to evaluate factors and processes affecting water quality and to establish a baseline that can be used to characterize future changes in groundwater quality. Groundwater samples were analyzed for inorganic, organic, isotopic, and age-dating constituents and tracers. This report discusses spatial and statistical distributions of chemical constituents and evaluates natural and human-related processes that affect water quality. Findings are synthesized to assess the vulnerability of the Denver Basin aquifer system to groundwater contamination. The chemistry of groundwater samples collected from the water-table wells was generally different from that of samples collected from the bedrock-aquifer wells. Samples from the water-table wells tended to have higher concentrations of total dissolved solids and most major ions. Concentrations of several constituents with potential human-health concerns, including nitrate, selenium, uranium, and arsenic, decreased with depth and were highest in samples from the water-table wells. Exceedances of drinking-water standards and water-quality benchmarks were more frequently associated with shallow groundwater samples; concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate exceeded water-quality benchmarks for about half or more of samples from the water-table wells. The sediments and rocks of the Denver Basin are natural sources of the trace elements selenium, uranium, and arsenic, which affect their concentrations in groundwater. Detections of organic contaminants, which are typically indicative of human sources of contamination to groundwater, were more frequent in samples from the water-table wells. Pesticide compounds and volatile organic compounds were detected in 33 and 62 percent, respectively, of water-table well samples. Detected organic contaminant concentrations were much less than the associated drinking-water standards. Samples collected from the bedrock aquifers had lower concentrations of total dissolved solids than did samples collected from the water-table wells, although within the bedrock-aquifer samples, concentrations increased from the Dawson to Denver to Arapahoe to Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers. Concentrations of total dissolved solids and many constituents varied spatially and with depth in the bedrock aquifers, likely as a result of ion-exchange and oxidation-reduction reactions, which are important processes affecting water quality. Major-ion chemistry generally evolved from a calcium-bicarbonate to calcium-sulfate composition, with some sodium-bicarbonate and sodium-sulfate facies in the deeper bedrock aquifers, likely resulting from longer residence times and more extensive water-rock interaction. Oxidation-reduction conditions generally evolved from oxic at the water table to anoxic with increasing depth in the bedrock aquifers. Most samples from the bedrock aquifers were anoxic. Exceedances of drinking-water standards and water-quality benchmarks for the bedrock aquifers occurred in 1 percent or less of samples for nitrate, selenium, or arsenic; there were no exceedances for uranium. Exceedances for total dissolved solids, sulfate, manganese, and iron were generally between about 10 and 20 percent for the bedrock-aquifer samples. Radon concentrations, which were only measured in samples collected from two of the bedrock aquifers, exceeded the lower proposed drinking-water standard for more than 90 percent of samples but exceeded the higher alternative standard for less than 5 percent of samples. Pesticide compounds and volatile organic compounds were detected in 3 and 22 percent, respectively, of bedrock-aquifer samples, all at concentrations that were that were much less than drinking-water standards. Water-quality data were synthesized to evaluate factors that affect spatial and depth variability in water quality and to assess aquifer vulnerability to contaminants from geologic materials and those of human origin. The quality of shallow groundwater in the alluvial aquifer and shallow bedrock aquifer system has been adversely affected by development of agricultural and urban areas. Land use has altered the pattern and composition of recharge. Increased recharge from irrigation water has mobilized dissolved constituents and increased concentrations in the shallow groundwater. Concentrations of most constituents associated with poor or degraded water quality in shallow groundwater decreased with depth; many of these constituents are not geochemically conservative and are affected by geochemical reactions such as oxidation-reduction reactions. Groundwater age tracers provide additional insight into aquifer vulnerability and help determine if young groundwater of potentially poor quality has migrated to deeper parts of the bedrock aquifers used for drinking-water supply. Age-tracer results were used to group samples into categories of young, mixed, and old groundwater. Groundwater ages transitioned from mostly young in the water-table wells to mostly mixed in the shallowest bedrock aquifer, the Dawson aquifer, to mostly old in the deeper bedrock aquifers. Although the bedrock aquifers are mostly old groundwater of good water quality, several lines of evidence indicate that young, contaminant-bearing recharge has reached shallow to moderate depths in some areas of the bedrock aquifers. The Dawson aquifer is the most vulnerable of the bedrock aquifers to contamination, but results indicate that the older (deeper) bedrock aquifers are also vulnerable to groundwater contamination and that mixing with young recharge has occurred in some areas. Heavy pumping has caused water-level declines in the bedrock aquifers in some parts of the Denver Basin, which has the potential to enhance the transport of contaminants from overlying units. Results of this study are consistent with the existing conceptual understanding of aquifer processes and groundwater issues in the Denver Basin and add new insight into the vulnerability of the bedrock aquifers to groundwater contamination.

Colorado

Assessment of the role of bottomland hardwoods in sediment and erosion control

Drainage and clearing of bottomland hardwoods have long been recognized by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) as important impacts of Federal water projects in the lower Mississippi River Valley. More recently, the water quality impacts of such projects (e.g., increases in sediments, nutrients, and pesticides) have also become of concern. In 1984, in an effort to better define problems concerning wetland losses and water degradation, EPA initiated a cooperative project with the Western Energy and Land Use Team (now the National Ecology Research Center) of the Service. Three phases of the project were identified: 1. To collect existing literature and data; 2. To select, develop, and test the utility of methods to quantify the relationships between land use, cover types, soils, hydrology, and water quality (as represented by sediment); and 3. To apply selected methodologies to several sites within the Yazoo Basin of Mississippi to determine the, potential effectiveness of various management alternatives to reduce sediment yield, increase sediment deposition, and improve water quality. Methods development focused on linking a simulation of water and sediment movement to a computerized geographic information system. We had several objectives for the resulting model. We desired that it should: 1. Estimate the importance of bottomland and hardwoods as a cover type that performs the functions of erosion and sediment control, 2. Simulate effects of proportions of ' various cover types and their specific spatial configurations, 3. Be applicable to moderately large spatial areas with minimal site-specific calibration, 4. Simulate spatial patterns of sediment loss-gain over time, and 5. Represent both sediment detachment and transport. While it was recognized that impacts and management alternatives could be sorted roughly into landscape measures and channel measures, the decision was made to focus study efforts mainly on landscape measures. Landscape measures include altered drainage and flooding patterns, altered cover types (e.g., conversion of bottomland hardwoods to agricultural crops, reforestation of cropland to bottomland hardwoods, and creation of riparian buffer strips), altered cropping and tillage patterns, altered routing of water, and creation of buffer strips along wetlands and channel margins. Channel measures include vegetative bank stabilization, grade control structures, and regulation of channel water volume and velocity. During the first year of the study, EPA decided not to fund the third phase of the project. This required considerable rescoping of the project with the result that application of the sediment mobilization, routing, and deposition models to various management alternatives and portions of the Yazoo Basin was somewhat restricted. We believe, however, that this report will provide a good understanding of the various modes of sediment mobilization, transport, and deposition within the Yazoo Basin, as well as of the role of bottomland hardwoods. The model developed in this study could be applied to a variety of management or mitigation alternatives prior to implementation to determine their relative effectiveness. Policy, political, and socio-economic consequences of any proposed management/mitigation practice, however, must ultimately be taken into consideration by those charged with management of water resources within the Yazoo Basin before any practice is implemented. This study makes no effort to judge the feasibility of management alternatives in this regard.

Report

Desert basins of the Southwest

Ground water is among the Nation’s most important natural resources. It provides drinking water to urban and rural communities, supports irrigation and industry, sustains the flow of streams and rivers, and maintains riparian and wetland ecosystems. In many areas of the Nation, the future sustainability of ground-water resources is at risk from overuse and contamination. Because ground-water systems typically respond slowly to human actions, a long-term perspective is needed to manage this valuable resource. This publication is one in a series of fact sheets that describe ground-water-resource issues across the United States, as well as some of the activities of the U.S. Geological Survey that provide information to help others develop, manage, and protect ground-water resources in a sustainable manner. Ground-water resources in the Southwest are among the most overused in the United States. Natural recharge to aquifers is low and pumping in many areas has resulted in lowering of water tables. The consequences of large-scale removal of water from storage are becoming increasingly evident. These consequences include land subsidence; loss of springs, streams, wetlands and associated habitat; and degradation of water quality. Water managers are now seeking better ways of managing ground-water resources while looking for supplemental sources of water. This fact sheet reviews basic information on ground water in the desert basins of the Southwest. Also described are some activities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that are providing scientific information for sustainable management of ground-water resources in the Southwest. Ground-water sustainability is defined as developing and using ground water in a way that can be maintained for an indefinite time without causing unacceptable environmental, economic, or social consequences.

Arizona;California;Nevada;New Mexico;Utah

Quality and quantity of terrestrial landscape connectivity in the US Great Lakes Coastal Zone

Context The Great Lakes Coastal Zone (GLCZ), the world’s longest continuous freshwater coastline, consists of interspersed natural and developed landcover and is inhabited by millions of people. Anthropogenic change fragments the GLCZ, decreasing landscape connectivity. Objectives We evaluated functional landscape connectivity of the U.S. GLCZ, assessing regional connectivity, protected areas’ effects on connectivity, and identified pinchpoints where connectivity is most vulnerable. Methods We modeled landscape connectivity to describe corridors and redundant pathways for two scenarios: (1) continuous terrestrial habitat patches and (2) protected areas. We compared these two scenarios by total corridor area and quality at two spatial scales (coastal zone and ecoregion). We used random forest analyses to examine how ecological factors influenced the connectivity rank and pinchpoint values. A principal components analysis identified how land cover influenced connectivity among ecoregions. Results The GLCZ was 69% connected. Although 91% of the GLCZ’s high-quality habitat was within corridors, less than 50% of the corridor area was high-quality (low resistance to movement). While the northernmost region retained high-quality connectivity, connectivity loss and degradation increased with development further south. Corridors between protected areas provided less connectivity, of worse quality, in areas of development and agriculture. Lower connectivity was associated with higher impervious surface cover. Conclusions Protected area placement affected both the quantity and quality of connectivity. Improving and maintaining functional connectivity could be accomplished by strategically restoring and protecting habitats most vulnerable to connectivity loss, predominantly in urban and agricultural regions. Our connectivity improvement index is a useful tool to identify areas where connectivity may be improved.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York,

Compendium to invasive annual grass spatial products for the western United States, January 2010-February 2021

Invasive annual grasses (IAGs) degrade native plant communities, alter fire cycles, impact ecosystem processes, and threaten the persistence of some species. Therefore, controlling the spread of IAGs has become a land management priority in the western United States. A wide array of geospatial data has been developed in the last decade to help land managers combat the invasion and expansion of non-native grasses by identifying areas where these species are likely to occur. However, choosing the most appropriate spatial product to address specific management concerns is a daunting task for many land managers, particularly with the rapid increase in the number of IAG spatial products available. To aid potential users in assessing these products, we reviewed and summarized 23 datasets that captured the three IAG species of most concern to rangeland management— Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead), and Ventenata dubia (ventenata). To be included in this review, products were required to include part of the western United States, be regional or National in scale, and have been published between January 2010 and February 2021. This review, part of a series of informational data resources, is the compendium to an Excel-readable database and provides a 2-page summary of each spatial data product to assist land managers in understanding and selecting the best available spatial data for their management needs.

western United States

Characterizing fragmentation of the collective forests in southern China from multitemporal Landsat imagery: A case study from Kecheng district of Zhejiang province

Tropical and subtropical forests provide important ecosystem goods and services including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. These forests are facing increasing socioeconomic pressures and are rapidly being degraded and fragmented. This analysis focuses on the rate of change and patterns of fragmentation in a collective forest area in Zhejiang province, China, during the time period 1988–2005. The research consisted of two parts. The first was the development of general land cover maps and the identification of land cover changes by interpreting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) time series imagery. The second part involved the computation and analysis of forest fragmentation metrics. For this portion of the study, fragmentation statistics were analyzed, and images were developed to depict forest fragmentation patterns and trends. Results revealed that there was a net loss of 7.8% in forest coverage, dropping from 66.8% in 1988 to 59.0% in 2005, primarily caused by agricultural expansion and poor forest management practices. An acceleration of forest fragmentation was also witnessed during the time intervals, which was evidenced by a decreasing trend in interior forest (57.2% in 1988, 55.0% in 1996 and 54.8% in 2005 respectively) coupled with the scales of the selected geospatial metrics. Continued forest loss and fragmentation are closely correlated with the existing political, educational, institutional and economic processes of contemporary China. To unlock the developmental potentials of the collective forests and to effectively mitigate the rate of forest loss and fragmentation, reforms of forest tenure and ecological immigration practices are recognized as a prospective alternative. The produced fragmentation maps further illustrates the importance of assessing landscape change history, especially the spatiotemporal patterns of forest fragments, when developing landscape level plans for biodiversity conservation, land use management and ecologically sustainable forestry.

Applied Geography

Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA, 1940-2002

The current ecological state of the Lake Tahoe basin has been shaped by significant landscape-altering human activity and management practices since the mid-1850s; first through widespread timber harvesting from the 1850s to 1920s followed by urban development from the 1950s to the present. Consequences of landscape change, both from development and forest management practices including fire suppression, have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The impacts from these activities include decreased water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard. To establish an understanding of the Lake Tahoe basin's landscape change in the context of forest management and development we mapped, quantified, and described the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin (279 km2) from 1940 to 2002. Our assessment relied on post-classification change detection of multi-temporal land-use/cover and impervious-surface-area data that were derived through manual interpretation, image processing, and GIS data integration for four dates of imagery: 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002. The most significant land conversion during the 62-year study period was an increase in developed lands with a corresponding decrease in forests, wetlands, and shrublands. Forest stand densities increased throughout the 62-year study period, and modern thinning efforts resulted in localized stand density decreases in the latter part of the study period. Additionally forests were gained from succession, and towards the end of the study period extensive tree mortality occurred. The highest rates of change occurred between 1940 and 1969, corresponding with dramatic development, then rates declined through 2002 for all observed landscape changes except forest density decrease and tree mortality. Causes of landscape change included regional population growth, tourism demands, timber harvest for local use, fire suppression, bark beetle attack, and fuels reduction activities. Results from this study offer land managers within the Lake Tahoe basin and in similar regions a basis for making better informed land-use and management decisions to potentially minimize detrimental ecological impacts of landscape change. The perspective to be gained is based on quantitative retrospection of the effects of human-driven changes and the impacts of management action or inaction to the forested landscape. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management

Linking management planning for coastal wetlands to potential future wave attenuation under a range of relative sea-level rise scenarios

Understanding changes in wave attenuation by emergent vegetation as wetlands degrade or accrete over time is crucial for incorporation of wetlands into holistic coastal risk management. Linked SLAMM and XBeach models were used to investigate potential future changes in wave attenuation over a 50-year period in a degrading, subtropical wetland and a prograding, temperate wetland. These contrasting systems also have differing management contexts and were contrasted to demonstrate how the linked models can provide management-relevant insights. Morphological development of wetlands for different scenarios of sea-level rise and accretion was simulated with SLAMM and then coupled with different vegetation characteristics to predict the influence on future wave attenuation using XBeach. The geomorphological context, subsidence, and accretion resulted in large predicted reductions in the extent of vegetated land (e.g., wetland) and changes in wave height reduction potential across the wetland. These were exacerbated by increases in sea-level from +0.217 m to +0.386 m over a 50-year period, especially at the lowest accretion rates in the degrading wetland. Mangrove vegetation increased wave attenuation within the degrading, subtropical, saline wetland, while grazing reduced wave attenuation in the temperate, prograding wetland. Coastal management decisions and actions, related to coastal vegetation type and structure, have the potential to change future wave attenuation at a spatial scale relevant to coastal protection planning. Therefore, a coastal management approach that includes disaster risk reduction, biodiversity, and climate change, can be informed by coastal modeling tools, such as those demonstrated here for two contrasting case studies.

PLoS ONE

Effects of irrigation on streamflow in the Central Sand Plain of Wisconsin

Development of ground water for irrigation affects streamflow and water levels in the sand-plain area of central Wisconsin. Additional irrigation development may reduce opportunities for water-based recreation by degrading the streams as trout habitat and by lowering lake levels. This study was made to inventory present development of irrigation in the sand-plain area, assess potential future development, and estimate the effects of irrigation on streamflow and ground-water levels. The suitability of land and the availability of ground water for irrigation are dependent, to a large extent, upon the geology of the area. Rocks making up the ground-water reservoir include outwash, morainal deposits, and glacial lake deposits. These deposits are underlain by crystalline rocks and by sandstone, which act as the floor of the ground-water reservoir. Outwash, the main aquifer, supplies water to about 300 irrigation wells and maintains relatively stable flow in the streams draining the area. The saturated thickness of these deposits is more than 100 feet over much of the area and is as much as 180 feet in bedrock valleys. The saturated thickness of the outwash generally is great enough to provide sufficient water for large-scale irrigation in all but two areas --one near the town of Wisconsin Rapids and one near Dorro Couche Mound. Aquifer tests indicate that the permeability of the outwash is quite high, ranging from about 1,000 gpd per square foot to about 3,800 gpd per square foot, Specific capacities of irrigation wells in the area range from 14 to 157 gpm per foot of drawdown. Water use in the sand-plain area is mainly for irrigation and waterbased recreation. Irrigation development began in the area in the late 1940's, and by 1967 about 19,500 acre-feet of water were pumped to irrigate 34,000 acres of potatoes, snap beans, corn, cucumbers, and other crops. About 70 percent of the applied water was lost to evapotranspiration, and about 30 percent was returned to the ground-water reservoir. Irrigation development should continue in the sand plain; future development probably will include improved artificial drainage and land clearing. The hydrology of the sand-plain area was studied from water budgets for seven basins and from water balances for eight types of vegetative cover or land use. During the study period about 16-20 inches of the 28- to 30-inch average annual precipitation were lost to evapotranspiration from different basins in the area, Evapotranspiration from different types of vegetative cover or land use ranged from about 14 inches per year for bare ground to about 25 inches per year from land covered by phreatophytes. Evapotranspiration is about 19 inches from forested land, about 16 inches from grassland and unirrigated row crops, about 19 inches from irrigated beans, and about 22 inches from irrigated potatoes. Variations in evapotranspiration from the different types of vegetative cover result mainly from differences in soil moisture available to the plants. Available soil moisture ranges from about 1 inch for shallow-rooted grasses and row crops to about 3 inches for forest. Most of the precipitation not used by plants or to replenish soil moisture seeps to the water table, and ground-water recharge in the area averages about 12-14 inches per year. However, computed recharge ranged from about 3 inches to about 22 inches during the 1948-67 period, depending upon the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation. Of the average 12-14 inches of recharge, about lo-13 inches are discharged to the streams draining the area, and about l-2 inches are used by phreatophytes or by irrigated crops. Annual streamflow in the area averages about 11-12 inches per year, and because it is sustained mainly by ground water, its seasonal distribution is fairly uniform, However, streamflow varies seasonally, being highest in the spring, low in the summer, higher

Wisconsin

Cultivating resilience in dryland soils: An assisted migration approach to biological soil crust restoration

Land use practices and climate change have driven substantial soil degradation across global drylands, impacting ecosystem functions and human livelihoods. Biological soil crusts, a common feature of dryland ecosystems, are under extensive exploration for their potential to restore the stability and fertility of degraded soils through the development of inoculants. However, stressful abiotic conditions often result in the failure of inoculation-based restoration in the field and may hinder the long-term success of biocrust restoration efforts. Taking an assisted migration approach, we cultivated biocrust inocula sourced from multiple hot-adapted sites (Mojave and Sonoran Deserts) in an outdoor facility at a cool desert site (Colorado Plateau). In addition to cultivating inoculum from each site, we created an inoculum mixture of biocrust from the Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, and Colorado Plateau. We then applied two habitat amelioration treatments to the cultivation site (growth substrate and shading) to enhance soil stability and water availability and reduce UV stress. Using marker gene sequencing, we found that the cultivated mixed inoculum comprised both local- and hot-adapted cyanobacteria at the end of cultivation but had similar cyanobacterial richness as each unmixed inoculum. All cultivated inocula had more cyanobacterial 16S rRNA gene copies and higher cyanobacterial richness when cultivated with a growth substrate and shade. Our work shows that it is possible to field cultivate biocrust inocula sourced from different deserts, but that community composition shifts toward that of the cultivation site unless habitat amelioration is employed. Future assessments of the function of a mixed inoculum in restoration and its resilience in the face of abiotic stressors are needed to determine the relative benefit of assisted migration compared to the challenges and risks of this approach.

Arizona, California, Utah