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USGS1976

Revision of Mississippian stratigraphy, eastern Idaho and northeastern Utah

New paleontologic evidence requires a revision of previous interpretations of the stratigraphy of Mississippian sequences in the Cordilleran miogeosyncline of eastern Idaho and northeastern Utah. A postulated unconformity between rocks of early Osagean age and rocks of middle Meramecian age is no longer tenable in the light of new data. The new evidence supports continuous deposition from the Lodgepole Limestone (Kinderhookian and early Osagean age) into the Little Flat Formation (early Osagean to middle Meramecian age) and its equivalents, and the interpretation of a phosphatic siltstone and shale interval in the lower part of the Little Flat Formation as a starved-basin facies.

Idaho, Utah↗

USGS2014

A continuous record of intereruption velocity change at Mount St. Helens from coda wave interferometry

In September 2004, Mount St. Helens volcano erupted after nearly 18 years of quiescence. However, it is unclear from the limited geophysical observations when or if the magma chamber replenished following the 1980–1986 eruptions in the years before the 2004–2008 extrusive eruption. We use coda wave interferometry with repeating earthquakes to measure small changes in the velocity structure of Mount St. Helens volcano that might indicate magmatic intrusion. By combining observations of relative velocity changes from many closely located earthquake sources, we solve for a continuous function of velocity changes with time. We find that seasonal effects dominate the relative velocity changes. Seismicity rates and repeating earthquake occurrence also vary seasonally; therefore, velocity changes and seismicity are likely modulated by snow loading, fluid saturation, and/or changes in groundwater level. We estimate hydrologic effects impart stress changes on the order of tens of kilopascals within the upper 4 km, resulting in annual velocity variations of 0.5 to 1%. The largest nonseasonal change is a decrease in velocity at the time of the deep M w  = 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We find no systematic velocity changes during the most likely times of intrusions, consistent with a lack of observable surface deformation. We conclude that if replenishing intrusions occurred, they did not alter seismic velocities where this technique is sensitive due to either their small size or the finite compressibility of the magma chamber. We interpret the observed velocity changes and shallow seasonal seismicity as a response to small stress changes in a shallow, pressurized system.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2014

Uncertainty in the fate of soil organic carbon: A comparison of three conceptually different soil decomposition models

Conventional Q10 soil organic matter decomposition models and more complex microbial models are available for making projections of future soil carbon dynamics. However, it is unclear (1) how well the conceptually different approaches can simulate observed decomposition and (2) to what extent the trajectories of long-term simulations differ when using the different approaches. In this study, we compared three structurally different soil carbon (C) decomposition models (one Q10 and two microbial models of different complexity), each with a one- and two-horizon version. The models were calibrated and validated using 4 years of measurements of heterotrophic soil CO 2 efflux from trenched plots in a Dahurian larch ( Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantation. All models reproduced the observed heterotrophic component of soil CO 2 efflux, but the trajectories of soil carbon dynamics differed substantially in 100 year simulations with and without warming and increased litterfall input, with microbial models that produced better agreement with observed changes in soil organic C in long-term warming experiments. Our results also suggest that both constant and varying carbon use efficiency are plausible when modeling future decomposition dynamics and that the use of a short-term (e.g., a few years) period of measurement is insufficient to adequately constrain model parameters that represent long-term responses of microbial thermal adaption. These results highlight the need to reframe the representation of decomposition models and to constrain parameters with long-term observations and multiple data streams. We urge caution in interpreting future soil carbon responses derived from existing decomposition models because both conceptual and parameter uncertainties are substantial.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2023

Geochemistry and fluxes of gases from hydrothermal features at Newberry Volcano, Oregon, USA

We present the chemical and isotopic compositions of gases and fluxes of CO 2 from the hydrothermal features of Newberry Volcano, a large composite volcano located in Oregon's Cascade Range with a summit caldera that hosts two lakes, Paulina and East Lakes. Gas samples were collected from 1982 to 2021 from Paulina Hot Springs (PHS) on the shore of Paulina Lake, East Lake Hot Springs (ELHS) on the shore of East Lake, and Obsidian Flow Gas Seep (OFGS), an area of diffuse gas emissions. Surveys of CO 2 flux were conducted in 2020 at OFGS (1400 m 2 ) and East Lake (4.1 km 2 ). Gases from all three sites were CO 2 -rich (≥79 mol% in dry gas) but showed considerable compositional variability over time due to interaction with ground and surface water. An increase in H 2 S concentrations and decline in CO 2 /H 2 S ratios in ELHS gases coincided with a drop in East Lake water level from 1999 to 2021. ELHS and OFGS gases were high in CH 4 relative to PHS and the δ 13 C of CH 4 values for ELHS gases (−72.2 and − 63.6 ‰) reflected a predominantly biogenic origin. The dominant source of N 2 and Ar in PHS, ELHS, and OFGS samples was likely groundwater. Helium isotopic ratios (6.47 to 8.02 R c /R a ) support a persistent source of magmatic He beneath Newberry caldera and consistently high values measured at OFGS and PHS relative to ELHS suggest distinct fluid flow paths from depth to the surface features. The δ 13 C of CO 2 and CO 2 / 3 He values (−8.9 to −5.35 ‰ and 1.3 × 10 9 to 4.6 × 10 10 , respectively) measured in gases reflect contributions of CO 2 from both mantle and crustal sources. Measured CO 2 fluxes at OFGS and East Lake ranged from 1 to 8808 and < 1 to 364 g m −2 d −1 , respectively. A CO 2 emission rate of 0.5 t d −1 was calculated for OFGS. The CO 2 emission rate estimated for East Lake was 30 t d −1 and when compared to prior estimates, reflects steady-state lake degassing. An enhanced geochemical monitoring plan, including annual sampling of gases at ELHS, OFGS, and PHS for geochemical analysis, installation of a continuous lake-level monitoring station at East Lake, and annual CO 2 flux surveys at OFGS, would provide valuable background data and insights into any precursor volcanic activity. Integrating geochemical data with data from the real-time seismic and GPS network at Newberry Volcano could better resolve and interpret potential changes in its magma-hydrothermal system.

Oregon↗

USGS1974

Shallow seismic compressional and shear wave refraction and electrical resistivity investigations at Rocky Flats, Jefferson County, Colorado

Seismic refraction and electrical resistivity investigations at Rocky Flats, Colo., a gravel-capped pediment, indicated an irregular bedrock surface which ranges in depth from 3 to 27 m (10-90 ft). Layers within the gravel that were revealed by interpretation of seismic and electrical data do not correlate, but the combining of results reveals information about water saturation and elastic properties of the overburden. Velocity variations within bedrock affect depth calculations.

Colorado↗

USGS1975

Lower Keweenawan volcanic rocks of Michigan and Wisconsin

Unconformable sequences of Keweenawan volcanic rocks occur in Michigan and adjacent Wisconsin. The sequences differ in types of rocks, magnetic properties, metamorphic grade, and pattern of structural deformation; they had different vent areas and were deposited in basins that were only partly overlapping. The older sequence includes the Bessemer Quartzite and two newly named formations that are here assigned to the lower Keweenawan. The younger sequence includes the well-known Portage Lake Volcanics and a younger unnamed formation, both of middle Keweenawan age. Formerly the older rocks were interpreted as a fault-repeated part of the Portage Lake Volcanics, but new evidence indicates that these older rocks had been metamorphosed and tilted and were being eroded in middle Keeweenawan time.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Metallogeny of the Great Basin: Crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits

The Great Basin physiographic province in the Western United States contains a diverse assortment of world-class ore deposits. It currently (2006) is the world’s second leading producer of gold, contains large silver and base metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Mo, W) deposits, a variety of other important metallic (Fe, Ni, Be, REE’s, Hg, PGE) and industrial mineral (diatomite, barite, perlite, kaolinite, gallium) resources, as well as petroleum and geothermal energy resources. Ore deposits are most numerous and largest in size in linear mineral belts with complex geology. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the final year of a research project initiated in the fall of 2001 to increase understanding of relations between crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits in the Great Basin. Because of its substantial past and current mineral production, this region has been the focus of numerous investigations over the past century and is the site of ongoing research by industry, academia, and state agencies. A variety of geoinformatic tools was used to organize, reinterpret, and display, in space and time, the large amounts of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic information deemed pertinent to this problem. This information, in combination with concentrated research on (1) critical aspects of the geologic history, (2) an area in northern Nevada that encompasses the major mineral belts, and (3) important mining districts and deposits, is producing new insights about the interplay between key tectonic events, hydrothermal fluid flow, and ore genesis in mineral belts. The results suggest that the Archean to Holocene history of the Great Basin was punctuated by several tectonic events that caused fluids of different origins (sea water, basinal brine, meteoric water, metamorphic water, magmatic water) to move through the crust. Basement faults reactivated during these events localized deformation, sedimentation, magmatism, and hydrothermal fluid flow in overlying rocks to form mineral belts that contain ore deposits of different types and ages that are locally superimposed (demonstrating inheritance). Fluid flow in these systems also was influenced by the distribution of permeable lithologies and paleotopographic highs and lows. Hydrothermal fluids evolved from their initial chemistries towards compositions that reflect the ƒ O 2 and ƒ S 2 buffering capacity of, and the ligands and metals present in, the rocks (±older mineralization) through which they moved. In northern Nevada, where gold deposits are relatively common, carbonaceous, pyritic strata buffered fluids of diverse origins to H 2 S-rich compositions so they could transport gold repeatedly over Paleozoic-Cenozoic time (convergent evolution). Ore formed where metal-laden fluids encountered effective physicochemical traps. Maps of Neogene basin fill and erosion surfaces identify areas where preexisting ore deposits have been progressively exposed or concealed. Comparisons with analogous terrains and deposit types in other parts of the world provide global context. The initial findings and some of the databases, geologic maps, sections, reconstructions, hydrogeologic models, topical syntheses, regional overviews, short courses, field guides, and deposit comparisons produced by project staff and associated managers, contractors, and collaborators have been presented in numerous abstracts, symposia, USGS publications, and professional journals over the last 5 years (see the extensive bibliography). Notable among these was the 2005 Geological Society of Nevada symposium in Reno, Nevada, and the 2005 Geological Society of America annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, where project results were presented to audiences from around the nation and world. The final results of the project will be submitted for publication in 2007 to appropriate USGS and professional journals. A special issue of GEOSPHERE, scheduled for publication in 2007, will be devoted to the results of this project and related work. This special issue will reach an international audience and be available worldwide on the internet. Much of the research for this project has concentrated on areas that will receive the focused attention of the mining industry in the future. As such, the data and interpretations generated by this project have direct use for land-use managers in Federal, State, and local agencies. Improved hydrogeologic models developed by this project will considerably enhance ongoing and future water resource investigations in the region. The increased understanding of when, where, and how hydrothermal systems produce significant economic deposits has direct uses for mineral exploration and for future USGS mineral resource assessments in the Great Basin and other parts of the world.

Great Basin↗

USGS2019

Crustal magmatism and anisotropy beneath the Arabian Shield - A cautionary tale

Volcanism in Saudi Arabia includes a historic eruption close to the holy city of Al Madinah. As part of a volcanic hazard assessment of this area, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected to investigate the structural setting, the distribution of melt within the crust, and the mantle source of volcanism. Interpretation of a new 3‐D resistivity model includes a shallow graben beneath thin lava fields (Harrats), a melt‐free upper crust, and decompression melting in the asthenosphere below thin lithosphere. Within the lower crust the model images elongate conductivity anomalies, one of which was attributed in a previous MT study to melt. The regional MT data, combined with perspective from geology and geophysical modeling, suggest the lower crust is anisotropic with no interconnected melt zones. These divergent interpretations have distinct hazard implications and highlight the importance of large survey aperture and anisotropic modeling to MT studies of volcanic regions. Lower‐crustal anisotropy extends beyond the Harrat, with the most conductive direction oriented N10°E and a factor of 3–5, determined from 2‐D anisotropic inversion, between the most and least conductive directions. The enhanced conductivity is likely due to interconnected grain boundary graphite, while the anisotropy direction reflects either frozen‐in fabric from Neoproterozoic stabilization of the Arabian Shield or modern ductile deformation driven by channelized asthenospheric flow coupled through a thin rigid mantle lid. Asthenospheric melt is interpreted to transect the crust primarily through diking, with limited melt storage and short residence times in the crust.

Arabian Shield↗

USGS2022

Stress heterogeneity as a driver of aseismic slip during the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence

The interaction of aseismic and seismic slip before and after an earthquake is fundamental for both earthquake nucleation and postseismic stress relaxation. However, it can be difficult to determine where and when aseismic slip occurs within the seismogenic zone because geodetic techniques are limited to detecting moderate to large slip amplitudes or long duration small slip amplitudes. Here, we use repeating earthquakes (earthquakes that re-rupture the same fault patch) as a proxy for aseismic slip during the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma earthquake sequence. We find that aseismic slip in the Prague earthquake sequence occurs both within the granitic basement and the overlying sedimentary rocks. The repeating earthquakes show that patches of aseismic slip are mostly located at fault intersections. These fault intersections hosted possible mainshock slip, abundant aftershocks, and afterslip. We estimate that ∼40% of the aftershocks are driven by afterslip. We interpret that aseismic slip occurs at fault intersections where stress heterogeneity creates patches of lower stress that are stable within a nonsteady state, rate-state framework.

Oklahoma↗

USGS1994

Proximal pyroclastic deposits from the 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska - stratigraphy, distribution, and physical characteristics

More than 20 eruptive events during the 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano emplaced a complex sequence of lithic pyroclastic-flow, -surge, -fall, ice-diamict, and lahar deposits mainly on the north side of the volcano. The deposits record the changing eruption dynamics from initial gas-rich vent-clearing explosions to episodic gas-poor lava-dome extrusions and failures. The repeated dome failures produced lithic pyroclastic flows that mixed with snow and glacial ice to generate lahars that were channelled off Drift glacier into the Drift River valley. Some of the dome failures occurred without precursory seismic warning and appeared to result solely from gravitational instability. Material from the disrupted lava domes avalanched down a steep, partly ice-filled canyon incised on the north flank of the volcano and came to rest on the heavily crevassed surface of the piedmont lobe of Drift glacier. Most dome-collapse events resulted in single, monolithologic, massive to reversely graded, medium- to coarse-grained, sandy pyroclastic-flow deposits containing abundant dense dome clasts. These deposits vary in thickness, grain size, and texture depending on distance from the vent and local topography; deposits are finer and better sorted down flow, thinner and finer on hummocks, and thicker and coarser where ponded in channels cut through the glacial ice. The initial vent-clearing explosions emplaced unusual deposits of glacial ice, snow, and rock in a frozen matrix on the north and south flanks of the volcano. Similar deposits were described at Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia and have probably been emplaced at other snow-and-ice-clad volcanoes, but poor preservation makes them difficult to recognize in the geologic record. In a like fashion, most deposits from the 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano may be difficult to recognize and interpret in the future because they were emplaced in an environment where glacio-fluvial processes dominate and quickly obscure the primary depositional record. ?? 1994.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2005

Modeling and measuring the nocturnal drainage flow in a high-elevation, subalpine forest with complex terrain

The nocturnal drainage flow of air causes significant uncertainty in ecosystem CO 2 , H 2 O, and energy budgets determined with the eddy covariance measurement approach. In this study, we examined the magnitude, nature, and dynamics of the nocturnal drainage flow in a subalpine forest ecosystem with complex terrain. We used an experimental approach involving four towers, each with vertical profiling of wind speed to measure the magnitude of drainage flows and dynamics in their occurrence. We developed an analytical drainage flow model, constrained with measurements of canopy structure and SF 6 diffusion, to help us interpret the tower profile results. Model predictions were in good agreement with observed profiles of wind speed, leaf area density, and wind drag coefficient. Using theory, we showed that this one‐dimensional model is reduced to the widely used exponential wind profile model under conditions where vertical leaf area density and drag coefficient are uniformly distributed. We used the model for stability analysis, which predicted the presence of a very stable layer near the height of maximum leaf area density. This stable layer acts as a flow impediment, minimizing vertical dispersion between the subcanopy air space and the atmosphere above the canopy. The prediction is consistent with the results of SF 6 diffusion observations that showed minimal vertical dispersion of nighttime, subcanopy drainage flows. The stable within‐canopy air layer coincided with the height of maximum wake‐to‐shear production ratio. We concluded that nighttime drainage flows are restricted to a relatively shallow layer of air beneath the canopy, with little vertical mixing across a relatively long horizontal fetch. Insight into the horizontal and vertical structure of the drainage flow is crucial for understanding the magnitude and dynamics of the mean advective CO 2 flux that becomes significant during stable nighttime conditions and are typically missed during measurement of the turbulent CO 2 flux. The model and interpretation provided in this study should lead to research strategies for the measurement of these advective fluxes and their inclusion in the overall mass balance for CO 2 at this site with complex terrain.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2018

Temporal stress changes caused by earthquakes: A review

Earthquakes can change the stress field in the Earth’s lithosphere as they relieve and redistribute stress. Earthquake-induced stress changes have been observed as temporal rotations of the principal stress axes following major earthquakes in a variety of tectonic settings. The stress changes due to the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake were particularly well documented. Earthquake stress rotations can inform our understanding of earthquake physics, most notably addressing the long-standing problem of whether the Earth’s crust at plate boundaries is “strong” or “weak.” Many of the observed stress rotations, including that due to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, indicate near-complete stress drop in the mainshock. This implies low background differential stress, on the order of earthquake stress drop, supporting the weak crust model. Earthquake stress rotations can also be used to address other important geophysical questions, such as the level of crustal stress heterogeneity and the mechanisms of postseismic stress reloading. The quantitative interpretation of stress rotations is evolving from those based on simple analytical methods to those based on more sophisticated numerical modeling that can capture the spatial-temporal complexity of the earthquake stress changes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Synfolding magnetization in the Jurassic Preuss Sandstone, Wyoming- Idaho-Utah thrust belt

The Jurassic Preuss Sandstone, exposed in five thrust plates of the Wyoming-Idaho-Utah thrust belt, carries directions of remanent magnetization that group most tightly after only partial unfolding. Field, petrographic, and rock magnetic evidence indicates that the carrier of this magnetization is detrital, low-Ti titanomagnetite. The detrital titanomagnetite was remagnetized at low temperatures (75°–150°C) probably completely during folding. Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and petrographic observations indicate that the detrital titanomagnetite has been affected by tectonic strain. We suggest that low-temperature remagnetization of the detrital titanomagnetite was either a viscous partial thermoremanent magnetization, the acquisition of which was enhanced by stress, or a piezoremanent magnetization that involved stress-induced movement of domain walls during intracrystalline strain, or was a combination of the two mechanisms. Stress may promote remagnetization at temperatures much lower than predicted by current theoretical models. Other mechanisms, such as acquisition of chemical remanent magnetization during folding, deflection of a prefolding magnetization by internal strain, or combination of components of magnetization with different direction cannot account for the geometry of magnetization in the Preuss. The locus of acquisition of synfolding magnetization in the Preuss migrated in conjunction with deformation in the thrust belt. A model is presented in which synfolding magnetization was acquired during cooling and folding as strata moved up thrust ramps. A lack of reverse-polarity directions remains a puzzling feature of the remanence. The remanent direction is tentatively interpreted to reflect the predominant polarity state during its acquisition over an extended rather than a discrete time period during folding in Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary (?) periods of predominantly normal polarity.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1977

Some characteristics of Pele's hair

Pele's hair is a filamentous variety of brown sideromelane glass that forms during eruption of basaltic lava. Strands of Pele's hair form from droplets of lava that are spun or stretched into filaments during quenching, and others may form as chilled streamers of lava. Common elongate vesicles, sometimes twisted, indicate extreme stretching and twisting during hair formation. Hair diameter ranges from about 1 to 300 micrometres. Refractive index of hairs decreases with hair diameter and is most probably a function of the process of formation rather than chemical composition. Masses of Pele's hair form natural spun-glass filters that trap small particles and serve as sites for sublimate deposition. Such deposition may begin even while hair is falling to the ground through an eruption fume cloud. Sublimates include carbonates, sulfates, sulfur, and less commonly hydrocarbons, thus complicating the interpretation of volatiles in Pele's hair in terms of original magmatic constituents. Vesicles, which provide the most nearly pure samples of magmatic volatiles, contain mostly H 2 O and CO 2 .

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS2011

North American Jurassic APW: The current dilemma

Geologists are in a quandary over the correct interpretation of paleomagnetic data for Jurassic rocks of the North American plate. Conflicting reference paleopoles and alternate methods of constructing apparent polar wander (APW) paths have led to a controversy regarding the configuration of Jurassic APW for cratonic North America. These differences have been recently disputed at meetings (see Eos , Spring Meeting Supplement, April 7, 1992, p. 94) and in an exchange of letters in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth [ Butler et al ., 1992; Van Fossen and Kent , 1992a]. At stake is important information concerning the Jurassic paleogeography of North America and the whole of Pangea, as well as the nature and driving mechanism of plate movements. In addition, cratonic paleopoles provide a reference frame for measuring relative displacements of tectonostratigraphic terranes.

Eos Science News↗

USGS2001

Seismic mapping of shallow fault zones in the San Gabriel Mountains from the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment, southern California

During the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE), a reflection/refraction survey was conducted along a profile (line 1) extending from Seal Beach, California, northeastward to the Mojave Desert and crossing the Los Angeles and San Gabriel Valley basins and San Gabriel Mountains. In most shot gathers from the southern and central San Gabriel Mountains, clear secondary arrivals are seen that merge, or appear to merge, with first arrivals at three locations, including the location of the Vincent thrust fault, an exposed late Mesozoic/early Cenozoic megathrust. These secondary arrivals are interpretable as reflections in the shallow crust (<5 km depth) from a concave-upward interface that projects to the surface in the north near the Vincent thrust fault, is offset in its central part at the San Gabriel fault (an old branch of the San Andreas fault), and terminates in the south at 1 to 2 km depth at the southern mountain front. The velocity structure above and below this interface strongly suggests it is the Vincent thrust fault: intermediate velocities (6.2 km/s), consistent with mylonites overlying the Vincent thrust fault, are observed above it; lower velocities (5.8 km/s), consistent with the Pelona Schist underlying the Vincent thrust fault, are observed below it. Problems arise, however, in attempting to match this reflector to the exposed Vincent thrust fault, which is seen in outcrops east of line 1. The Vincent thrust fault is shallower than the reflector in most places. An unmapped structure (steep fault, monocline, or thrust fault) is required between line 1 and the outcrops that either drops the Vincent thrust fault down to the depths of the reflector or repeats the Vincent thrust fault beneath line 1 in the footwall of another thrust fault. An alternative interpretation of the reflector is a deep greenstone horizon within the Pelona Schist, although this alternative is not favored by the velocity structure. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

California↗

USGS2011

Estimates of stress drop and crustal tectonic stress from the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile, earthquake: Implications for fault strength

The great 27 February 2010 M w 8.8 earthquake off the coast of southern Chile ruptured a ∼600 km length of subduction zone. In this paper, we make two independent estimates of shear stress in the crust in the region of the Chile earthquake. First, we use a coseismic slip model constrained by geodetic observations from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS to derive a spatially variable estimate of the change in static shear stress along the ruptured fault. Second, we use a static force balance model to constrain the crustal shear stress required to simultaneously support observed fore‐arc topography and the stress orientation indicated by the earthquake focal mechanism. This includes the derivation of a semianalytic solution for the stress field exerted by surface and Moho topography loading the crust. We find that the deviatoric stress exerted by topography is minimized in the limit when the crust is considered an incompressible elastic solid, with a Poisson ratio of 0.5, and is independent of Young's modulus. This places a strict lower bound on the critical stress state maintained by the crust supporting plastically deformed accretionary wedge topography. We estimate the coseismic shear stress change from the Maule event ranged from −6 MPa (stress increase) to 17 MPa (stress drop), with a maximum depth‐averaged crustal shear‐stress drop of 4 MPa. We separately estimate that the plate‐driving forces acting in the region, regardless of their exact mechanism, must contribute at least 27 MPa trench‐perpendicular compression and 15 MPa trench‐parallel compression. This corresponds to a depth‐averaged shear stress of at least 7 MPa. The comparable magnitude of these two independent shear stress estimates is consistent with the interpretation that the section of the megathrust fault ruptured in the Maule earthquake is weak, with the seismic cycle relieving much of the total sustained shear stress in the crust.

Maule↗

USGS2012

A refined index of model performance: a rejoinder

Willmott et al. [Willmott CJ, Robeson SM, Matsuura K. 2012. A refined index of model performance. International Journal of Climatology , forthcoming. DOI:10.1002/joc.2419.] recently suggest a refined index of model performance ( d r ) that they purport to be superior to other methods. Their refined index ranges from − 1.0 to 1.0 to resemble a correlation coefficient, but it is merely a linear rescaling of our modified coefficient of efficiency ( E 1 ) over the positive portion of the domain of d r . We disagree with Willmott et al. ( 2012 ) that d r provides a better interpretation; rather, E 1 is more easily interpreted such that a value of E 1 = 1.0 indicates a perfect model (no errors) while E 1 = 0.0 indicates a model that is no better than the baseline comparison (usually the observed mean). Negative values of E 1 (and, for that matter, d r < 0.5) indicate a substantially flawed model as they simply describe a ‘level of inefficacy’ for a model that is worse than the comparison baseline. Moreover, while d r is piecewise continuous, it is not continuous through the second and higher derivatives. We explain why the coefficient of efficiency ( E or E 2 ) and its modified form ( E 1 ) are superior and preferable to many other statistics, including d r , because of intuitive interpretability and because these indices have a fundamental meaning at zero. We also expand on the discussion begun by Garrick et al. [Garrick M, Cunnane C, Nash JE. 1978. A criterion of efficiency for rainfall-runoff models. Journal of Hydrology 36 : 375-381.] and continued by Legates and McCabe [Legates DR, McCabe GJ. 1999. Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research 35 (1): 233-241.] and Schaefli and Gupta [Schaefli B, Gupta HV. 2007. Do Nash values have value? Hydrological Processes 21 : 2075-2080. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6825.]. This important discussion focuses on the appropriate baseline comparison to use, and why the observed mean often may be an inadequate choice for model evaluation and development.

International Journal of Climatology↗