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Secretive marsh bird habitat relationships at mid-continent spring migration stopover sites

Despite several secretive marsh bird (SMB) species being listed as critically imperiled throughout the mid-continent of North America, limited information on SMB distribution and habitat use within primary migratory corridors results in uncertainty on contributions of wetlands in mid-latitude states toward their annual cycle needs. Our objectives were to quantify temporal patterns of SMB wetland occupancy during spring migration at a mid-latitude state and evaluate the relationships between SMB colonization probability and water-level management practices, and the resulting habitat conditions during spring migration. We conducted a 2-year, dynamic occupancy study (2013–2014) that included 6 rounds of repeated call-back surveys to detect the presence of 5 SMB species (i.e., Virginia rail [ Rallus limicola ], sora [ Porzana carolina ], king rail [ R. elegans ], least bittern [ Ixobrychus exilis ], and American bittern [ Botaurus lentiginosus ]) during spring (Apr–Jun) on 107 wetlands across 8 conservation areas and 4 national wildlife refuges throughout Missouri, USA. We detected sora most frequently, followed by least bittern, American bittern, Virginia rail, and king rail. Coefficient estimates indicated colonization probability for all species was positively associated with emergent vegetation cover and negatively associated with amount of open water. Open water was the only variable in the best supported model explaining American bittern site colonization, to which they were negatively associated. Virginia rail colonization had a strong positive association with vegetation height, whereas least bittern and sora site colonization were influenced positively by water depth and agriculture, respectively. Based on the habitat associations within and among SMB species identified in this study, wetland managers can tailor management strategies to optimize spring migration habitat for single- or multi-species objectives.

Missouri

Perceptions of earthquake and tsunami issues in U.S. Pacific Northwest port and harbor communities

Although there is considerable energy focused on assessing natural hazards associated with earthquakes and tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, little has been done to understand societal vulnerability to these hazards. Part of understanding societal vulnerability includes assessing the perceptions and priorities of public sector individuals with traditional emergency management responsibilities and of private citizens who could play key roles in community recovery. In response to this knowledge gap, we examine earthquake and tsunami perceptions of stakeholders and decision makers from coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, focusing on perceptions of (1) regional hazards and societal vulnerability, (2) the current state of readiness, and (3) priorities for future hazard adjustment efforts. Results of a mailed survey suggest that survey participants believe that earthquakes and tsunamis are credible community threats. Most communities are focusing on regional mitigation and response planning, with less effort devoted to recovery plans or to making individual organizations more resilient. Significant differences in expressed perceptions and priorities were observed between Oregon and Washington respondents, mainly on tsunami issues. Significant perception differences were also observed between private and public sector respondents. Our results suggest the need for further research and for outreach and planning initiatives in the Pacific Northwest to address significant gaps in earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and readiness.

International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disa

USGS response to an urban earthquake, Northridge '94

The urban centers of our Nation provide our people with seemingly unlimited employment, social, and cultural opportunities as a result of the complex interactions of a diverse population embedded in an highly-engineered environment. Catastrophic events in one or more of the natural earth systems which underlie or envelop urban environment can have radical effects on the integrity and survivability of that environment. Earthquakes have for centuries been the source of cataclysmic events on cities throughout the world. Unlike many other earth processes, the effects of major earthquakes transcend all political, social, and geomorphic boundaries and can have decided impact on cities tens to hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter. In modern cities, where buildings, transportation corridors, and lifelines are complexly interrelated, the life, economic, and social vulnerabilities in the face of a major earthquake can be particularly acute. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake was a major test for parts of what many consider the most earthquake-prepared and best-engineered metropolitan region in the United States. While the combined efforts of concerned professionals at all levels of government, academia, and the private sector have produced significant advances in our knowledge of the causes and potential effects of earthquakes, and of ways to reduce their impact, it remains unfortunately true that actual earthquakes provide important opportunities to test those advances in our knowledge. In the hours and days following the Northridge Earthquake, the four Federal member agencies of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) laid out a detailed plan for collecting, analyzing, archiving, and reporting information that would benefit the Nation in future earthquake hazards reduction efforts. Congress provided a special appropriation to FEMA to carry out this plan and FEMA distributed those funds to the four NEHRP agencies. The USGS was responsible for conducting geophysical and geological investigations in support of the NEHRP Post-earthquake Study. For the past 2 years, the USGS has rigorously pursued over 40 tasks focused on the USGS Northridge Earthquake Mission. This document is a summary report of the USGS findings; additional technical reports on specific USGS tasks are appearing in various scientific journals and USGS publications.

California

Genetic mark–recapture improves estimates of maternity colony size for Indiana bats

Genetic mark–recapture methods are increasingly being used to estimate demographic parameters in species where traditional techniques are problematic or imprecise. The federally endangered Indiana bat Myotis sodalis has declined dramatically and threats such as white-nose syndrome continue to afflict this species. To date, important demographic information for Indiana bats has been difficult to estimate precisely using traditional techniques such as emergence counts. Successful management and protection of Indiana bats requires better methods to estimate population sizes and survival rates throughout the year, particularly during summer when these bats reproduce and are widely dispersed away from their winter hibernacula. In addition, the familial makeup of maternity colonies is unknown, yet important for understanding local and regional population dynamics. We had four objectives in this study. For the first two objectives we investigated the potential use of DNA from fecal samples (fecal DNA) collected at roosts to obtain genetically based mark–recapture estimates of 1) colony size and 2) survival rates, for an Indiana bat maternity colony in Indianapolis, Indiana. The third objective was to compare our genetically based colony-size estimates with emergence counts conducted at the same roost tree to evaluate the genetic mark–recapture method. Our fourth objective was to use fecal DNA to estimate levels of relatedness among individuals sampled at the roost. In the summer of 2008, we collected fecal pellets and conducted emergence counts at a prominent roost tree during three time periods each lasting 7 or 8 d. We genotyped fecal DNA using five highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to identify individuals and used a robust-design mark–recapture approach to estimate survival rates as well as colony size at the roost tree. Emergence count estimates at the roost tree ranged from 100 to 215, whereas genetic mark–recapture estimates were higher, ranging from 122 to 266 and more precise. Apparent survival was 0.994 (SE = 0.04) between sampling periods suggesting that few bats died or permanently emigrated during the course of the study. Relatedness estimates, r, between all pairs of individuals averaged 0.055 ranging from 0 to 0.779, indicating that most individuals were not closely related. We demonstrate here the promise of using fecal DNA to estimate demographic information for Indiana bats and potentially other bat species.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

Perspectives from the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute: Amphibians and wilderness

The decline of amphibian species has emerged as a major global conservation issue in the last decade. Last year, the Department of the Interior (DOI) initiated a major national initiative to detect trends in amphibian populations and research the causes of declines. The program, conducted principally by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), emphasizes lands managed by DOI, but collaboration with the Forest Service is encouraged to increase the scope of inference about population trends. Although amphibians are not usually the first group of animals that comes to mind when one thinks of wilderness, conservation of amphibian populations is clearly a wilderness issue.

International Journal of Wilderness

Synthesis of larval lamprey responses to dewatering: State of the science, critical uncertainties, and management implications

Objective Dewatering of fine sediments in rivers and streams can kill many thousands of larval lampreys (order Petromyzontiformes) that are burrowed in these habitats. The larval life stage for lampreys lasts 3–10 years, and because larvae often aggregate in large numbers, negative impacts from dewatering could potentially deplete local populations and affect multiple year-classes. Larval lampreys have not traditionally been considered during instream projects, but recent efforts to increase awareness of lamprey habitats have resulted in guidance on dewatering approaches to limit impacts to lampreys. Salvage efforts to rescue and relocate lampreys aim to mitigate losses, but a lack of understanding of lamprey responses limits the optimization of dewatering and salvage procedures. Methods We summarize the state of the science for nine factors that influence larval lamprey ( Entosphenus and Lampetra spp.) responses to dewatering, including burrowing depth, the prevalence and timing of emergence, movements, survival, shoreline slope, dewatering rate, light, and lamprey size. Result Research suggests that (1) shoreline slope influences movement capability, (2) hot and sunny conditions increase the risk of mortality, (3) salvage activities cause minimal direct mortality, and (4) smaller larvae are especially vulnerable to negative impacts from dewatering because they are more likely to emerge and are less capable of movement. Critical uncertainties associated with dewatering include cues that drive emergence, the influence of sediment composition and stratigraphy, vertical distribution of larvae in natural settings, use of the hyporheic zone, the scale of predation losses, and the effectiveness and impacts of salvage activities. Conclusion Balancing investments in salvage operations and lamprey exclusion efforts (e.g., screening) and developing field survey approaches to evaluate lamprey use of the hyporheic zone are identified management implications and research needs. Addressing the critical uncertainties discussed here and providing updated, science-based guidance on dewatering and salvage practices are suggested management actions to support lamprey conservation.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System (VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

Popocatepetl Volcano

Catch-and-release science and its application to conservation and management of recreational fisheries

Catch-and-release angling is a well-established practice in recreational angler behaviour and fisheries management. Accompanying this is a growing body of catch-and-release research that can be applied to reduce injury, mortality and sublethal alterations in behaviour and physiology. Here, the status of catch-and-release research from a symposium on the topic is summarised. Several general themes emerged including the need to: (1) better connect sublethal assessments to population-level processes; (2) enhance understanding of the variation in fish, fishing practices and gear and their role in catch and release; (3) better understand animal welfare issues related to catch and release; (4) increase the exchange of information on fishing-induced stress, injury and mortality between the recreational and commercial fishing sectors; and (5) improve procedures for measuring and understanding the effect of catch-and-release angling. Through design of better catch-and-release studies, strategies could be developed to further minimise stress, injury and mortality arising from catch-and-release angling. These strategies, when integrated with other fish population and fishery characteristics, can be used by anglers and managers to sustain or enhance recreational fishing resources. ?? 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fisheries Management and Ecology

Wetland management practices and secretive marsh bird habitat in the Mississippi Flyway: A review

Management regimes on publicly owned freshwater wetlands in the Mississippi Flyway of North America (i.e., Flyway) have historically emphasized waterfowl, but there is limited information on how waterfowl-focused wetland management affects other wetland-dependent wildlife. Secretive marsh birds (SMBs) depend on wetlands with emergent vegetation throughout their migratory life cycle and often encounter vegetation and water conditions resulting from waterfowl-focused management regimes. Thus, there is a need for better understanding of how SMBs are affected by wetland management and the extent to which waterfowl-focused management regimes provide habitat for SMBs. In this review, we identify the vegetation and water conditions resulting from typical management objectives on freshwater emergent wetlands in the Flyway, review and qualitatively synthesize results from studies that directly evaluate how wetland management practices affect SMBs or their habitat, and assess how the vegetation and water conditions being produced for target species (mainly waterfowl) align with SMB habitat requirements. We searched online databases and used Google Scholar to locate peer-reviewed literature, technical reports, and graduate theses that pertained to responses of SMBs or their habitat to water-level manipulation, herbicide application, prescribed fire, disking, mowing, and planting crops. There are several management strategies that complement SMBs and waterfowl, such as reducing cover of woody species and providing flooded emergent vegetation. We also highlight management strategies that may not currently align with SMB life-cycle needs and suggest adjustments that might promote habitat for SMBs while still achieving waterfowl population objectives. For example, adjusting the dates and duration of spring water-level drawdowns on a portion of wetlands within a larger complex can provide for spring migrating waterfowl and ensure habitat for migrating and nesting SMBs. Ideally, future studies would address how modifications to management practices affect SMBs and monitor potential effects on waterfowl, resulting in a more holistic approach to wetland management.

The Journal of Wildlife Management

Resource segregation at fine spatial scales explains Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) distribution

The resource concentration hypothesis predicts that herbivorous insect density scales positively with plant density because insects are better able to identify, and remain longer in, patches with denser plant resources. While some studies support this hypothesis, others do not. Different explanations have been proposed for this discrepancy, including variation in insect dispersal ability and diet breadth. We test the resource concentration hypothesis using the Karner blue butterfly ( Lycaeides melissa samuelis ), a specialist that relies on wild blue lupine ( Lupinus perennis ) as its sole host plant. We extended this hypothesis to test whether Karner blue density also scales positively with nectar plant resources. Our findings did not support the resource concentration hypothesis and demonstrate that the spatial segregation of nectar and host plant resources relative to each other can influence the location and abundance of Karner blues on the landscape. This is because the location of resources relative to each other influences the energy and time butterflies expend for flight activity, and thereby influences resource acquisition. During early summer when first brood Karner blues emerge, nectar and host plants were spatially segregated, and Karner blue density peaked at intermediate densities of nectar and host plants occurring at ratios approximately equal to 1:1. During late summer, we found no significant relationships between second brood Karner blues and nectar plants or host plants when there was no correlation between nectar and host plants. Conservation practitioners of specialist insects with low vagility can strategically manage the distribution of plant resources to minimize insect time and energy expenditure and promote resource acquisition for all of an insect’s life stages.

Journal of Insect Conservation

Cooperative science to inform Lake Ontario management: Research from the 2013 Lake Ontario CSMI program

Since the mid-1970s, successful Lake Ontario management actions including nutrient load and pollution reductions, habitat restoration, and fish stocking have improved Lake Ontario. However, several new obstacles to maintenance and restoration have emerged. This special issue presents management-relevant research from multiple agency surveys in 2011 and 2012 and the 2013 Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI), that span diverse lake habitats, species, and trophic levels. This research focused on themes of nutrient loading and fate; vertical dynamics of primary and secondary production; fish abundance and behavior; and food web structure. Together these papers identify the status of many of the key drivers of the Lake Ontario ecosystem and contribute to addressing lake-scale questions and management information needs in Lake Ontario and the other Great Lakes and connecting water bodies.

Lake Ontario

The emerging role of lidar remote sensing in coastal research and resource management

Knowledge of coastal elevation is an essential requirement for resource management and scientific research. Recognizing the vast potential of lidar remote sensing in coastal studies, this Special Issue includes a collection of articles intended to represent the state-of-the-art for lidar investigations of nearshore submerged and emergent ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, and hazards due to sea-level rise and severe storms. Some current applications for lidar remote sensing described in this Special Issue include bluegreen wavelength lidar used for submarine coastal benthic environments such as coral reef ecosystems, airborne lidar used for shoreline mapping and coastal change detection, and temporal waveform-resolving lidar used for vegetation mapping.

Journal of Coastal Research

Synthesis of common management concerns associated with dam removal

Managers make decisions regarding if and how to remove dams in spite of uncertainty surrounding physical and ecological responses, and stakeholders often raise concerns about certain negative effects, regardless of whether or not these concerns are warranted at a particular site. We used a dam-removal science database supplemented with other information sources to explore seven frequently-raised concerns, herein Common Management Concerns (CMCs). We investigate the occurrence of these concerns and the contributing biophysical controls. The CMCs addressed are: degree and rate of reservoir sediment erosion, excessive channel incision upstream of reservoirs, downstream sediment aggradation, elevated downstream turbidity, drawdown impacts on local water infrastructure, colonization of reservoir sediments by non-native plants, and expansion of invasive fish. Biophysical controls emerged for some of the concerns, providing managers with information to assess whether a given concern is likely to occur at a site. To fully assess CMC risk, managers should concurrently evaluate site conditions and identify the ecosystem or human uses that will be negatively affected if the biophysical phenomenon producing the CMC occurs. We show how many CMCs have one or more controls in common, facilitating the identification of multiple risks at a site, and demonstrate why CMC risks should be considered in the context of other factors like natural watershed variability and disturbance history.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

A method for determining the onset year of intense browsing

McAuliffe studied the factors limiting seedling establishment of a common Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum, at three sites in bajada habitat in Arizona and Mexico. Distribution patterns of Cercidium seedlings in both habitats were random when seedlings emerged, however, seedling distribution in bajadas quickly became non-random and associated with other perennial plants. Seedlings closely associated with (rooted under) shrubby perennial vegetation survived because they had some protective cover and were not grazed by rabbits, however, future survival of these seedlings may be reduced due to competition with the protective plants. The authors concluded that herbivory was the main factor limiting the establishment of Cercidium microphyllum seedlings in the bajada habitats in the Sonoran desert.

Montana

Estimating natal dispersal movement rates of female European ducks with multistate modelling

1. We used up to 34 years of capture-recapture data from about 22 100 new releases of day-old female ducklings and multistate modelling to test predictions about the influence of environmental, habitat and management factors on natal dispersal probability of three species of ducks within the Engure Marsh, Latvia. 2. The mean natal dispersal distances were very similar (c. 0.6-0.7 km) for all three species and were on average 2.7 times greater than breeding dispersal distances recorded within the same study system. 3. We were unable to confirm the kinship hypothesis and found no evidence that young first-nesting females nested closer to their relatives (either mother or sister) than to the natal nest. 4. Young female northern shovelers, like adults, moved from small islands to the large island when water level was high and vice versa when water level was low before the construction of elevated small islands. Movement probabilities between the two strata were much higher for young shovelers than adults, suggesting that young birds had not yet developed strong fidelity to the natal site. Movements of young female tufted ducks , unlike those of shovelers, were not dependent on water level fluctuations and reflected substantial flexibility in choice of first nesting sites. 5. Data for young birds supported our earlier conclusion that common pochard nesting habitats in black-headed gull colonies were saturated during the entire study period. Young females, like the two adult age groups, moved into and out of colonies with similar probability. Fidelity probability of female pochards to each stratum increased with age, being the lowest (0.62) for young (DK) females, intermediate (0.78) for yearlings (SY) and the highest (0.84) for adult (ASY) females. 6. Young female tufted ducks , like adults, showed higher probabilities of moving from islands to emergent marshes when water levels were higher both before and after habitat management. The relationship between the spring water levels and movement was much weaker for young females than for adults. 7. Young female diving ducks exhibited much stronger (compared to adults) asymmetric movement with respect to proximity to water, with higher movement probabilities to near-water locations than away from these locations. 8. Local survival of day-old ducklings during the first year of life was time-specific and very low (means for different strata/states 0.01-0.08) because of high rates of emigration and prefledging mortality.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Multi-hazard risk analysis for the U.S. Department of the Interior: An integration of expert elicitation, planning priorities, and geospatial analysis

An integral part of disaster risk management is identifying and prioritizing hazards and their potential impacts in a meaningful way to support risk-reduction planning. There has been considerable use and subsequent criticism of threat prioritization efforts that simply compare likelihoods and consequences of plausible threats. This article summarizes a new mixed-methods and scalable approach for prioritizing risks in a multi-hazard, multi-objective, and multi-criteria organizational context. This approach integrates (1) hazard characterizations using subject-matter-expert (SME) elicitation, (2) expressed preferences in planning priorities provided by emergency managers, and (3) quantitative estimates of asset exposure to hazards using geospatial data and geographic-information-systems (GIS) software. We demonstrate this approach with a case study designed to support multi-hazard mitigation and response planning done by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management, which required a national understanding of the risks posed by 75 natural, technological, and adversarial hazards to DOI managed and administered lands, facilities, people, revenues, and resources. Results demonstrate that hazard priorities vary depending on the asset, scale, and risk-management context, thereby making the case that “one-size-fits-all” hazard rankings have limited utility or relevance to real-world, risk mitigation and response planning. Our results suggest that recognizing the risk-management context provides greater transparency, flexibility, and relevance in comparing threats than traditional likelihood-threat matrices or the use of hazard SMEs to decide for planners which hazard scenarios are emphasized in risk planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

A 21st century perspective on postfire seeding

Wildfires elicit a perceived need for emergency action to stabilize denuded landscapes. Aerial seeding of rapidly growing nonnative grasses is used routinely in an attempt to control postfire erosion, despite limited scientific basis for its effectiveness and with little consideration for its unintended ecological impacts. As fire size and magnitude have increased in recent decades, so has the prevalence and cost of postfire seeding and the potential footprint of its unintended impacts. We see a growing consensus in the research community on two important points: this management practice often is not cost-effective and it appears to create more problems than it solves.

Journal of Forestry