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USGS2008

Mineral Commodity Summaries 2008

Each chapter of the 2008 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2007 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. National reserves and reserve base information for most mineral commodities found in this report, including those for the United States, are derived from a variety of sources. The ideal source of such information would be comprehensive evaluations that apply the same criteria to deposits in different geographic areas and report the results by country. In the absence of such evaluations, national reserves and reserve base estimates compiled by countries for selected mineral commodities are a primary source of national reserves and reserve base information. Lacking national assessment information by governments, sources such as academic articles, company reports, common business practice, presentations by company representatives, and trade journal articles, or a combination of these, serve as the basis for national reserves and reserve base information reported in the mineral commodity sections of this publication. A national estimate may be assembled from the following: historically reported reserves and reserve base information carried for years without alteration because no new information is available; historically reported reserves and reserve base reduced by the amount of historical production; and company reported reserves. International minerals availability studies conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, before 1996, and estimates of identified resources by an international collaborative effort (the International Strategic Minerals Inventory) are the basis for some reserves and reserve base estimates. The USGS collects information about the quantity and quality of mineral resources but does not directly measure reserves, and companies or governments do not directly report reserves or reserve base to the USGS. Reassessment of reserves and reserve base is a continuing process and the intensity of this process differs for mineral commodities, countries, and time period. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. A resource/reserve classification for minerals, based on USGS Circular 831 (published with the U.S. Bureau of Mines) is Appendix C, and a directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2008 are welcomed.

Mineral Commodity Summaries↗
USGS2009

A global map of rainfed cropland areas (GMRCA) at the end of last millennium using remote sensing

The overarching goal of this study was to produce a global map of rainfed cropland areas (GMRCA) and calculate country-by-country rainfed area statistics using remote sensing data. A suite of spatial datasets, methods and protocols for mapping GMRCA were described. These consist of: (a) data fusion and composition of multi-resolution time-series mega-file data-cube (MFDC), (b) image segmentation based on precipitation, temperature, and elevation zones, (c) spectral correlation similarity (SCS), (d) protocols for class identification and labeling through uses of SCS R 2 -values, bi-spectral plots, space-time spiral curves (ST-SCs), rich source of field-plot data, and zoom-in-views of Google Earth (GE), and (e) techniques for resolving mixed classes by decision tree algorithms, and spatial modeling. The outcome was a 9-class GMRCA from which country-by-country rainfed area statistics were computed for the end of the last millennium. The global rainfed cropland area estimate from the GMRCA 9-class map was 1.13 billion hectares (Bha). The total global cropland areas (rainfed plus irrigated) was 1.53 Bha which was close to national statistics compiled by FAOSTAT (1.51 Bha). The accuracies and errors of GMRCA were assessed using field-plot and Google Earth data points. The accuracy varied between 92 and 98% with kappa value of about 0.76, errors of omission of 2-8%, and the errors of commission of 19-36%. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2007

Putting it all together: Exhumation histories from a formal combination of heat flow and a suite of thermochronometers

A suite of new techniques in thermochronometry allow analysis of the thermal history of a sample over a broad range of temperature sensitivities. New analysis tools must be developed that fully and formally integrate these techniques, allowing a single geologic interpretation of the rate and timing of exhumation and burial events consistent with all data. We integrate a thermal model of burial and exhumation, (U-Th)/He age modeling, and fission track age and length modeling. We then use a genetic algorithm to efficiently explore possible time-exhumation histories of a vertical sample profile (such as a borehole), simultaneously solving for exhumation and burial rates as well as changes in background heat flow. We formally combine all data in a rigorous statistical fashion. By parameterizing the model in terms of exhumation rather than time-temperature paths (as traditionally done in fission track modeling), we can ensure that exhumation histories result in a sedimentary basin whose thickness is consistent with the observed basin, a physically based constraint that eliminates otherwise acceptable thermal histories. We apply the technique to heat flow and thermochronometry data from the 2.1 -km-deep San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth pilot hole near the San Andreas fault, California. We find that the site experienced <1 km of exhumation or burial since the onset of San Andreas fault activity

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1973

A photogeologic method for determining the direction of horizontal dilation from patterns of en echelon fracturing

The direction of horizontal dilation in areas characterized by tensional tectonics can be determined from a statistical study of en echelon patterns of fracturing observed on aerial photographs. Relative, to a north-south dilation, nearly all directions of zones of dextral (right-lateral) en echelon fractures lie in the northeast quadrant, while those of sinistral (left-lateral) en echelon fractures concentrate in the northwest quadrant. Statistically, directions of the two types of zones define unimodal frequency curves that intersect at about 90 degrees to, and thus define the direction of, applied dilation. The method has been field tested twice and is believed to be suitable for any area characterized by (1) generally unidirectional horizontal strain and (2) an adequate population of geologically contemporaneous fissures, including roughly equal development of sinistral and dextral en echelon arrays. Where exposures and aerial photograph coverage are adequate, the direction can be determined quickly to within about 10 degrees accuracy without fieldwork. The method should be useful for preliminary structural studies, especially in inaccessible areas.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗
USGS2010

Mineral Commodity Summaries 2010

Each chapter of the 2010 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2009 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. National reserves information for most mineral commodities found in this report, including those for the United States, are derived from a variety of sources. The ideal source of such information would be comprehensive evaluations that apply the same criteria to deposits in different geographic areas and report the results by country. In the absence of such evaluations, national reserves estimates compiled by countries for selected mineral commodities are a primary source of national reserves information. Lacking national assessment information by governments, sources such as academic articles, company reports, presentations by company representatives, and trade journal articles, or a combination of these, serve as the basis for national reserves information reported in the mineral commodity sections of this publication. A national estimate may be assembled from the following: historically reported reserves information carried for years without alteration because no new information is available; historically reported reserves reduced by the amount of historical production; and company reported reserves. International minerals availability studies conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM), before 1996, and estimates of identified resources by an international collaborative effort (the International Strategic Minerals Inventory) are the basis for some reserves estimates. The USGS collects information about the quantity and quality of mineral resources but does not directly measure reserves, and companies or governments do not directly report reserves to the USGS. Reassessment of reserves is a continuing process, and the intensity of this process differs for mineral commodities, countries, and time period. Throughout the history of Mineral Commodity Summaries and its predecessor prior to 1978, Commodity Data Summaries, the presentation of resource data has evolved. Although world resources have been discussed each year, presentation of reserves and reserve base data varied. From 1957 through 1979, only reserves information was published in the reports, but from 1980 through 1987, only estimates of reserve base, a concept introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) and the USGS in 1980, were published. Beginning in 1988, both reserves and reserve base information were listed for each mineral commodity where applicable and available. Prior to 1996, the minerals availability studies conducted by the USBM and work with international collaborators were the basis for reserve base data reported in Mineral Commodity Summaries. When the USBM was closed in 1996, this function was discontinued. Since that time, reserve base estimates have been updated to be consistent with changes in reserves, but the nonreserves component of the information upon which the reserve base data were estimated is not current enough to support defensible reserve base estimates. For that reason, publication of reserve base estimates was discontinued for Mineral Commodity Summaries 2010. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. A resource/reserve classification for minerals, based on USGS Circular 831 (published with the U.S. Bureau of Mines) is Appendix C, and a directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2010 are welcomed.

Mineral Commodity Summaries↗
USGS2012

Novel approach for computing photosynthetically active radiation for productivity modeling using remotely sensed images in the Great Plains, United States

Gross primary production (GPP) is a key indicator of ecosystem performance, and helps in many decision-making processes related to environment. We used the Eddy covariancelight use efficiency (EC-LUE) model for estimating GPP in the Great Plains, United States in order to evaluate the performance of this model. We developed a novel algorithm for computing the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) based on net radiation. A strong correlation ( R 2 =0.94, N =24) was found between daily PAR and Landsat-based mid-day instantaneous net radiation. Though the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based instantaneous net radiation was in better agreement ( R 2 =0.98, N =24) with the daily measured PAR, there was no statistical significant difference between Landsat based PAR and MODIS based PAR. The EC-LUE model validation also confirms the need to consider biological attributes (C 3 versus C 4 plants) for potential light use efficiency. A universal potential light use efficiency is unable to capture the spatial variation of GPP. It is necessary to use C 3 versus C 4 based land use/land cover map for using EC-LUE model for estimating spatiotemporal distribution of GPP.

Journal of Applied Remote Sensing↗
USGS2022

Streamlined approach for assessing embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt in the United States

In today's complex global supply chains, time and data intensive analyses are required to understand global flows of mineral commodities from mine to consumer, particularly for mineral commodities in products (electronics, automobiles, etc.) that contain multiple parts with many mineral commodities. National and regional analyses require additional time and data to incorporate international trade flows. However, data limitations and time constraints often prohibit global and national material flow analyses for minor metals. Here we present a methodological approach to circumvent these constraints by utilizing readily available industry-level global data from the United Nations Statistics Division and national industrial data to estimate total requirements for a mineral commodity. We apply this approach to lithium and cobalt use in the United States for the year 2018 and distinguish between apparent raw material consumption versus inferred embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt materials in all forms. The results show that more than half of the United States’ total requirements for both lithium and cobalt is in parts and products that were manufactured outside the United States. In large part, this is due to limited US manufacturing capability for lithium-ion battery materials and cells and the United States’ high import reliance for electronics that use those batteries.

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗
USGS2000

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange: Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil interfacial layer, and source/sink products

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere tace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulationshowed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steadystate chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2023

Wildfire-induced shifts in groundwater discharge to streams identified with paired air and stream water temperature analyses

Within the western United States, increasingly severe and frequent wildfires may alter the magnitude, timing, and quality of water exported from burned areas by streams. Post-fire hydrologic studies often focus on peak stream flow responses to shifts in runoff generation or on annual streamflow yield response to changes in evapotranspiration following fire. However, the magnitude and duration of wildfire effects on groundwater recharge, changes in subsurface routing, and consequences for stream low flows sourced predominately by baseflow are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate an approach using the amplitude and phase of paired annual air and stream water temperature signals to broadly identify changes in watershed subsurface flow contributions after fire. Watersheds were classified using pre-fire temperature data, as having air-coupled (i.e., reduced apparent groundwater signature), deep groundwater, or shallow groundwater stream temperature signals. Changes in pre- and post-fire paired air and stream water temperature metrics were compared for locations (n = 17) spanning a large range of physiographic and climatic conditions across the western United States. Pre- and post-fire comparisons were computed by quantile using bootstrapped confidence intervals (ci = 95), as well as in aggregate using Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. Statistical comparisons of pre- and post-fire temperature metrics suggest that overall, watersheds classified as having minimal groundwater influence are the most likely to experience fire-induced subsurface hydrologic change. More specifically, watersheds classified as having air-coupled or shallow groundwater signals experienced increases in the magnitude of groundwater discharge, with more stable annual thermal regimes post-fire that are less-coupled to ambient air temperature. These findings form the basis of a conceptual framework for watershed resistance to subsurface hydrologic change following fire that can be broadly applied as a first approximation for water management, impacts on aquatic habitat, and post-wildfire response planning.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2006

Random versus fixed-site sampling when monitoring relative abundance of fishes in headwater streams of the upper Colorado River basin

Native fishes of the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) have declined in distribution and abundance due to habitat degradation and interactions with normative fishes. Consequently, monitoring populations of both native and nonnative fishes is important for conservation of native species. We used data collected from Muddy Creek, Wyoming (2003-2004), to compare sample size estimates using a random and a fixed-site sampling design to monitor changes in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of native bluehead suckers Catostomus discobolus, flannelmouth suckers C. latipinnis, roundtail chub Gila robusta, and speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus, as well as nonnative creek chub Semotilus atromaculatus and white suckers C. commersonii. When one-pass backpack electrofishing was used, detection of 10% or 25% changes in CPUE (fish/100 m) at 60% statistical power required 50-1,000 randomly sampled reaches among species regardless of sampling design. However, use of a fixed-site sampling design with 25-50 reaches greatly enhanced the ability to detect changes in CPUE. The addition of seining did not appreciably reduce required effort. When detection of 25-50% changes in CPUE of native and nonnative fishes is acceptable, we recommend establishment of 25-50 fixed reaches sampled by one-pass electrofishing in Muddy Creek. Because Muddy Creek has habitat and fish assemblages characteristic of other headwater streams in the UCRB, our results are likely to apply to many other streams in the basin. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2013

Whole-coal versus ash basis in coal geochemistry: a mathematical approach to consistent interpretations

Several standard methods require coal to be ashed prior to geochemical analysis. Researchers, however, are commonly interested in the compositional nature of the whole-coal, not its ash. Coal geochemical data for any given sample can, therefore, be reported in the ash basis on which it is analyzed or the whole-coal basis to which the ash basis data are back calculated. Basic univariate (mean, variance, distribution, etc.) and bivariate (correlation coefficients, etc.) measures of the same suite of samples can be very different depending which reporting basis the researcher uses. These differences are not real, but an artifact resulting from the compositional nature of most geochemical data. The technical term for this artifact is subcompositional incoherence. Since compositional data are forced to a constant sum, such as 100% or 1,000,000 ppm, they possess curvilinear properties which make the Euclidean principles on which most statistical tests rely inappropriate, leading to erroneous results. Applying the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation to compositional data allows them to be represented in Euclidean space and evaluated using traditional tests without fear of producing mathematically inconsistent results. When applied to coal geochemical data, the issues related to differences between the two reporting bases are resolved as demonstrated in this paper using major oxide and trace metal data from the Pennsylvanian-age Pond Creek coal of eastern Kentucky, USA. Following ilr transformation, univariate statistics, such as mean and variance, still differ between the ash basis and whole-coal basis, but in predictable and calculated manners. Further, the stability between two different components, a bivariate measure, is identical, regardless of the reporting basis. The application of ilr transformations addresses both the erroneous results of Euclidean-based measurements on compositional data as well as the inconsistencies observed on coal geochemical data reported on different bases.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2026

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗
USGS2015

Regional scale estimates of baseflow and factors influencing baseflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study region The study region encompasses the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), which provides water for 40 million people and is a vital part of the water supply in the western U.S. Study focus Groundwater and surface water can be considered a single water resource and thus it is important to understand groundwater contributions to streamflow, or baseflow, within a region. Previously, quantification of baseflow using chemical mass balance at large numbers of sites was not possible because of data limitations. A new method using regression-derived daily specific conductance values with conductivity mass balance hydrograph separation allows for baseflow estimation at sites across large regions. This method was applied to estimate baseflow discharge at 229 sites across the UCRB. Subsequently, climate, soil, topography, and land cover characteristics were statistically evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) to determine their influence on baseflow discharge. New hydrological insights for the region Results suggest that approximately half of the streamflow in the UCRB is baseflow derived from groundwater discharge to streams. Higher baseflow yields typically occur in upper elevation areas of the UCRB. PCA identified precipitation, snow, sand content of soils, elevation, land surface slope, percent grasslands, and percent natural barren lands as being positively correlated with baseflow yield; whereas temperature, potential evapotranspiration, silt and clay content of soils, percent agriculture, and percent shrublands were negatively correlated with baseflow yield.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2010

The use of multi-temporal Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for mapping fuels in Yosemite National Park, USA

The objective of this study was to test the applicability of using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from a temporal sequence of six Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes to map fuel models for Yosemite National Park, USA. An unsupervised classification algorithm was used to define 30 unique spectral-temporal classes of NDVI values. A combination of graphical, statistical and visual techniques was used to characterize the 30 classes and identify those that responded similarly and could be combined into fuel models. The final classification of fuel models included six different types: short annual and perennial grasses, tall perennial grasses, medium brush and evergreen hardwoods, short-needled conifers with no heavy fuels, long-needled conifers and deciduous hardwoods, and short-needled conifers with a component of heavy fuels. The NDVI, when analysed over a season of phenologically distinct periods along with ancillary data, can elicit information necessary to distinguish fuel model types. Fuels information derived from remote sensors has proven to be useful for initial classification of fuels and has been applied to fire management situations on the ground.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2026

Trends in subdaily to daily rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022

Changing rainfall patterns and intensifying rainfall extremes affect urban infrastructure and can increase flash-flood risk. Understanding how climate change has altered rainfall can support state and local agencies as they adapt and build resiliency. In this study, rainfall data from 23 weather stations in Florida were used to examine temporal and spatial trends over the period 1990–2022. Subdaily to daily rainfall events of durations 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h were examined. A variety of statistical methods were applied to examine annual and seasonal trends, including quantile regression, extreme value analysis, run theory using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen–Theil slope, and Poisson and negative binomial tests, and threshold exceedance rates using generalized additive models. Using subdaily rainfall data posed challenges, including equipment failures, limited documentation of the quality assurance and control process, and potential measurement interferences. Results indicated that over 1990–2022, there was a decrease in hourly rainfall extremes but an increase at moderate quantiles. Overall, the number of rainfall events increased, particularly at shorter durations, but the mean total rainfall per event decreased. Additionally, the annual number of daily rainfall extremes showed more decreases than increases.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Background Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear. Aims This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts. Methods We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale. Key results RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input. Conclusions Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs. Interpretations Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2011

Use of recent and historical records to estimate status and trends of a rare and imperiled stream fish, Percina jenkinsi (Percidae)

Rarely encountered animals may be present but undetected, potentially leading to incorrect assumptions about the persistence of a local population or the conservation priority of a particular area. The federally endangered and narrowly endemic Conasauga logperch ( Percina jenkinsi ) is a good example of a rarely encountered fish species of conservation concern, for which basic population statistics are lacking. We evaluated the occurrence frequency for this species using surveys conducted with a repeat-observation sampling approach during the summer of 2008. We also analyzed museum records since the late 1980s to evaluate the trends in detected status through time. The results of these analyses provided support for a declining trend in this species over a portion of its historical range, despite low estimated detection probability. We used the results to identify the expected information return for a given level of monitoring where the sampling approach incorporates incomplete detection. The method applied here may be of value where historic occurrence records are available, provided that the assumption of constant capture efficiency is reasonable.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2007

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

[1] We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗