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Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

Annual Review of Marine Science

Engaging with stakeholders to produce actionable science: A framework and guidance

Natural and cultural resource managers are increasingly working with the scientific community to create information on how best to adapt to the current and projected impacts of climate change. Engaging with these managers is a strategy that researchers can use to ensure that scientific outputs and findings are actionable (or useful and usable). In this article, the authors adapt Davidson’s wheel of participation to characterize and describe common stakeholder engagement strategies across the spectrum of Inform, Consult, Participate, and Empower. This adapted framework provides researchers with a standardized vocabulary for describing their engagement approach, guidance on how to select an approach, methods for implementing engagement, and potential barriers to overcome. While there is often no one “best” approach to engaging with stakeholders, researchers can use the objectives of their project and the decision context in which their stakeholders operate to guide their selection. Researchers can also revisit this framework over time as their project objectives shift and their stakeholder relationships evolve.

Weather Climate and Society

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard , exposure , affected populations, vulnerability and risk , and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:

Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response

In July 2010, in an effort to reduce future catastrophic natural disaster losses for California, the American Red Cross coordinated and sent a delegation of 20 multidisciplinary experts on earthquake response and recovery to Chile. The primary goal was to understand how the Chilean society and relevant organizations responded to the magnitude 8.8 Maule earthquake that struck the region on February 27, 2010, as well as how an application of these lessons could better prepare California communities, response partners and state emergency partners for a comparable situation. Similarities in building codes, socioeconomic conditions, and broad extent of the strong shaking make the Chilean earthquake a very close analog to the impact of future great earthquakes on California. To withstand and recover from natural and human-caused disasters, it is essential for citizens and communities to work together to anticipate threats, limit effects, and rapidly restore functionality after a crisis. The delegation was hosted by the Chilean Red Cross and received extensive briefings from both national and local Red Cross officials. During nine days in Chile, the delegation also met with officials at the national, regional, and local government levels. Technical briefings were received from the President’s Emergency Committee, emergency managers from ONEMI (comparable to FEMA), structural engineers, a seismologist, hospital administrators, firefighters, and the United Nations team in Chile. Cities visited include Santiago, Talca, Constitución, Concepción, Talcahuano, Tumbes, and Cauquenes. The American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team consisted of subject matter experts, who carried out special investigations in five Teams on the (1) science and engineering findings, (2) medical services, (3) emergency services, (4) volunteer management, and (5) executive and management issues (see appendix A for a full list of participants and their titles and teams). While developing this delegation, it was clear that a multidisciplinary approach was required to properly analyze the emergency response, technical, and social components of this disaster. A diverse and knowledgeable delegation was necessary to analyze the Chilean response in a way that would be beneficial to preparedness in California, as well as improve mitigation efforts around the United States. By most standards, the Maule earthquake was a catastrophe for Chile. The economic losses totaled $30 billion USD or 17% of the GDP of the country. Twelve million people, or ¾ of the population of the country, were in areas that felt strong shaking. Yet only 521 fatalities have been confirmed, with 56 people still missing and presumed dead in the tsunami. The Science and Technology Team evaluated the impacts of the earthquake on built environment with implications for the United States. The fires following the earthquake were minimal in part because of the shutdown of the national electrical grid early in the shaking. Only five engineer-designed buildings were destroyed during the earthquake; however, over 350,000 housing units were destroyed. Chile has a law that holds building owners liable for the first 10 years of a building’s existence for any losses resulting from inadequate application of the building code during construction. This law was cited by many our team met with as a prime reason for the strong performance of the built environment. Overall, this earthquake demonstrated that strict building codes and standards could greatly reduce losses in even the largest earthquakes. In the immediate response to the earthquake and tsunami, first responders, emergency personnel, and search and rescue teams handled many challenges. Loss of communications was significant; many lives were lost and effective coordination to support life-sustaining efforts was gravely impacted due to a lack of inter- and intra-agency coordination. The Health and Medical Services Team sought to understand the medical disaster response strategies and operations of Chilean agencies, including perceived or actual failures in disaster preparation that impacted the medical disaster response; post-disaster health and medical interventions to save lives and limit suffering; and the lessons learned by public health and medical personnel as a result of their experiences. Despite devastating damage to the health care and civic infrastructure, the health care response to the Chilean earthquake appeared highly successful due to several factors. Like other first responders, the medical community had the ability and resourcefulness to respond without centralized control in the early response phase. The health care community maintained patient care under austere conditions, despite many obstacles that could have prevented such care. National and international resources were rapidly mobilized to support the medical response. The Emergency Services Team sought to collect information on all phases of emergency management (preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) and determine what worked well and what could be improved upon. The Chileans reported being surprised that they were not as ready for this event as they thought they were. The use of mass care sheltering was limited, given the scope of the disaster, because of the resiliency of the population. The impacts of the earthquake and the tsunami were quite different, as were the needs of urban and rural dwellers, necessitating different response activities. The Volunteer Services Team examined the challenges faced in mobilizing a large number of volunteers to assist in the aftermath of a disaster of this scale. One of the greatest challenges expressed was difficulty in communication; the need for redundancy in communication mechanisms was cited. The flexibility and ability to work autonomously by the frontline volunteers was a significant factor in effective response. It was also important for volunteer leadership to know the emergency plans. These plans need to be flexible, include alternative options, and be completed in conjunction with local officials and other volunteers. The Executive/Red Cross Management Team took a broad look at the impacts of the earthquake and the implications for California. Some of the most important preparation for the disaster came from relationships formed before the event. The communities with strong connections between different government services generally fared well. The initial response and resilience of individuals and communities was another important component. Communication system failures limited the ability of a central government to assist impacted communities, or to issue tsunami warnings. It also delayed the response since the government did not know (in some case for several days) the impact and needs of local governments. In general, plans for congregate care shelters existed but were little used as most people chose to stay at damaged homes or with relatives. Looting was a surprise to response officials as well as social scientists, but both public and private sector organizations, including NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations), must consider security for damaged businesses as a priority in California’s multihazard planning. Class and ethnic divisions that become heightened during some cases of actual or perceived injustice may also emerge in natural disasters in California. Several factors contributed overall to the low casualty rate and rapid recovery. A major factor is the strong building code in Chile and its comprehensive enforcement. In particular, Chile has a law that holds building owners accountable for losses in a building they build for 10 years. A second factor was the limited number of fires after the earthquake. In the last few California earthquakes, 60% of the fires were started by electrical problems, so the rarity of fires may have been affected by the shut down of the electricity grid early in the earthquake. Third, in many areas, the local emergency response was very effective. The most effective regions had close coordination between emergency management, fire, and police and were empowered to respond without communication with the capital. The fourth factor was the overall high level of knowledge about earthquakes and tsunamis by much of the population that helped them respond more appropriately after the event.

Open-File Report

Anthropocene streams and base-level controls from historic dams in the unglaciated mid-Atlantic region, USA

Recently, widespread valley-bottom damming for water power was identified as a primary control on valley sedimentation in the mid-Atlantic US during the late seventeenth to early twentieth century. The timing of damming coincided with that of accelerated upland erosion during post-European settlement land-use change. In this paper, we examine the impact of local drops in base level on incision into historic reservoir sediment as thousands of ageing dams breach. Analysis of lidar and field data indicates that historic milldam building led to local base-level rises of 2–5 m (typical milldam height) and reduced valley slopes by half. Subsequent base-level fall with dam breaching led to an approximate doubling in slope, a significant base-level forcing. Case studies in forested, rural as well as agricultural and urban areas demonstrate that a breached dam can lead to stream incision, bank erosion and increased loads of suspended sediment, even with no change in land use. After dam breaching, key predictors of stream bank erosion include number of years since dam breach, proximity to a dam and dam height. One implication of this work is that conceptual models linking channel condition and sediment yield exclusively with modern upland land use are incomplete for valleys impacted by milldams. With no equivalent in the Holocene or late Pleistocene sedimentary record, modern incised stream-channel forms in the mid-Atlantic region represent a transient response to both base-level forcing and major changes in land use beginning centuries ago. Similar channel forms might also exist in other locales where historic milling was prevalent.

Delaware, Maryland, Newe Jersey, New York, Pennsyl

Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey

This report provides an overview of model-based climate science in a risk management context. In addition, it summarizes how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will continue to follow best scientific practices and when and how the results of this research will be delivered to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other stakeholders to inform policymaking. Climate change is a risk management challenge for society because of the uncertain consequences for natural and human systems across decades to centuries. Climate-related science activities within the USGS emphasize research on adaptation to climate change. This research helps inform adaptive management processes and planning activities within other DOI bureaus and by DOI stakeholders. Global climate models are sophisticated numerical representations of the Earth’s climate system. Research groups from around the world regularly participate in a coordinated effort to produce a suite of climate models. This global effort provides a test bed to assess model performance and analyze projections of future change under various prescribed climate scenarios. These climate scenarios describe a plausible future outcome associated with a specific set of societal actions. Because scenarios are developed in a risk-based framework with a high degree of uncertainty about future societal developments, they are usually not assigned a formal likelihood of occurrence. Examining a range of projected climate outcomes based on multiple scenarios is a recommended best practice because it allows decision makers to better consider both short- and long-term risks and opportunities. As part of its routine science practices, the USGS regularly reviews the state of knowledge of climate science, develops and maintains best practices in using global climate models to project climate change impacts, and provides data and interpretations of potential impacts to the DOI and other stakeholders. Management and policy decisions within the DOI will reflect different tolerances for risk, which has implications for what type of information should be considered and how that information should be used. It is suggested that a followup document be produced that would describe in more detail how these management decisions with differing risk tolerances can be made effectively and consistently in light of an uncertain future.

Open-File Report

Anthropogenic impact in the Mayan Lowlands of Petén, Guatemala, during the last 5500 years

Trace and rare earth elements from a Lake Peten Itzá (Guatemala) sediment core depict the geochemical dynamics affecting the lake from ~5500 y BP to the present. This timing encompasses the Preclassic (4000 to 1700 y BP) and Classic Periods (1700-1000 y BP) when thriving Maya societies extensively cleared land for agriculture. We demonstrate that this land use occurred during times of increased precipitation, where both processes resulted in increased erosion. Rare earth element ratios depict high precipitation rates between 3000 to 1000 y BP, correlating with an increase in allocthonous silicate input and low organic carbon in the “Maya Clay” stratigraphic section, where this layer is ascribed to intensive anthropogenic land use. Cesium anomalies provide additional evidence for runoff due to high rainfalls and amplified by anthropogenic impacts. The Peten Itzá core contains anomalous spikes of arsenic and mercury, where these peaks correspond to documented volcanic eruptions, and therefore are likely due to natural causes. The geochemical composition of sediments and palynological records indicate a re-growth of the forest after ~900 y BP. This increased forest vegetation coincides with the timing of the decline in Maya agriculture.

Journal of Quaternary Science

Hydraulic conductivity of a sandy soil at low water content after compaction by various methods

To investigate the degree to which compaction of a sandy soil influences its unsaturated hydraulic conductivity K , samples of Oakley sand (now in the Delhi series; mixed, thermic, Typic Xeropsamments) were packed to various densities and K was measured by the steady-state centrifuge method. The air-dry, machine packing was followed by centrifugal compression with the soil wet to about one-third saturation. Variations in (i) the impact frequency and (ii) the impact force during packing, and (iii) the amount of centrifugal force applied after packing, produced a range of porosity from 0.333 to 0.380. With volumetric water content θ between 0.06 and 0.12, K values were between 7 × 10 −11 and 2 × 10 −8 m/s. Comparisons of K at a single θ value for samples differing in porosity by about 3% showed as much as fivefold variation for samples prepared by different packing procedures, while there generally was negligible variation (within experimental error of 8%) where the porosity difference resulted from a difference in centrifugal force. Analysis involving capillary-theory models suggests that the differences in K can be related to differences in pore-space geometry inferred from water retention curves measured for the various samples.

Soil Science Society of America Journal

Deep drilling in the Chesapeake Bay impact structure - An overview

The late Eocene Chesapeake Bay impact structure lies buried at moderate depths below Chesapeake Bay and surrounding landmasses in southeastern Virginia, USA. Numerous characteristics made this impact structure an inviting target for scientific drilling, including the location of the impact on the Eocene continental shelf, its threelayer target structure, its large size (??85 km diameter), its status as the source of the North American tektite strewn field, its temporal association with other late Eocene terrestrial impacts, its documented effects on the regional groundwater system, and its previously unstudied effects on the deep microbial biosphere. The Chesapeake Bay Impact Structure Deep Drilling Project was designed to drill a deep, continuously cored test hole into the central part of the structure. A project workshop, funding proposals, and the acceptance of those proposals occurred during 2003-2005. Initial drilling funds were provided by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Supplementary funds were provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Science Mission Directorate, ICDP, and USGS. Field operations were conducted at Eyreville Farm, Northampton County, Virginia, by Drilling, Observation, and Sampling of the Earth's Continental Crust (DOSECC) and the project staff during September-December 2005, resulting in two continuously cored, deep holes. The USGS and Rutgers University cored a shallow hole to 140 m in April-May 2006 to complete the recovered section from land surface to 1766 m depth. The recovered section consists of 1322 m of crater materials and 444 m of overlying postimpact Eocene to Pleistocene sediments. The crater section consists of, from base to top: basement-derived blocks of crystalline rocks (215 m); a section of suevite, impact melt rock, lithic impact breccia, and cataclasites (154 m); a thin interval of quartz sand and lithic blocks (26 m); a granite megablock (275 m); and sediment blocks and boulders, polymict, sediment-clast-dominated sedimentary breccias, and a thin upper section of stratified sediments (652 m). The cored postimpact sediments provide insight into the effects of a large continental-margin impact on subsequent coastal-plain sedimentation. This volume contains the first results of multidisciplinary studies of the Eyreville cores and related topics. The volume is divided into these sections: geologic column; borehole geophysical studies; regional geophysical studies; crystalline rocks, impactites, and impact models; sedimentary breccias; postimpact sediments; hydrologic and geothermal studies; and microbiologic studies. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America

An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

Does remote-sensing information provide economic benefits to society, and can a value be assigned to those benefits? Can resource management and policy decisions be better informed by coupling past and present Earth observations with groundwater nitrate measurements? Using an integrated assessment approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) applied an established conceptual framework to answer these questions, as well as to estimate the value of information (VOI) for remote-sensing imagery. The approach uses moderate-resolution land-imagery (MRLI) data from the Landsat and Advanced Wide Field Sensor satellites that has been classified by the National Agricultural Statistics Service into the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Within the constraint of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's public health threshold for potable groundwater resources, the USGS modeled the relation between a population of the CDL's land uses and dynamic nitrate (NO3-) contamination of aquifers in a case study region in northeastern Iowa. Employing various multiscaled, multitemporal geospatial datasets with MRLI to maximize the value of agricultural production, the approach develops and uses multiple environmental science models to address dynamic nitrogen loading and transport at specified distances from specific sites (wells) and at landscape scales (for example, across 35 counties and two aquifers). In addition to the ecosystem service of potable groundwater, this effort focuses on the use of MRLI for the management of the major land uses in the study region-the production of corn and soybeans, which can impact groundwater quality. Derived methods and results include (1) economic and dynamic nitrate-pollution models, (2) probabilities of the survival of groundwater, and (3) a VOI for remote sensing. For the northeastern Iowa study region, the marginal benefit of the MRLI VOI (in 2010 dollars) is $858 million ±$197 million annualized, which corresponds to a net present value of $38.1 billion ±$8.8 billion for that flow of benefits in perpetuity. Given that these economic estimates are derived from one case study in a part of only one State, the estimates provide a lower estimate related to the potential value of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission.

Professional Paper

Phosphate reactivity in long-term poultry litter-amended southern Delaware sandy soils

Eutrophication caused by dissolved P from poultry litter (PL)-amended agricultural soils has been a serious environmental concern in the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia Peninsula (Delmarva), USA. To evaluate state and federal nutrient management strategies for reducing the environmental impact of soluble P from long-term PL-amended Delaware (DE) soils, we investigated (i) inorganic P speciation; (ii) P adsorption capacity; and (iii) the extent of P desorption. Although the electron microprobe (EMP) analyses showed a strong correlation between P and Al/Fe, crystalline Al/Fe-P precipitates were not detected by x-ray diffraction (XRD). Instead, the inorganic P fractionation analyses showed high levels of oxalate extractable P, Al, and Fe fractions (615-858, 1215-1478, and 337-752 mg kg-1, respectively), which were susceptible to slow release during the long-term (30-d) P desorption experiments at a moderately acidic soil pHwater. The labile P in the short-term (24-h) desorption studies was significantly associated with oxalate and F extractable Fe and Al, respectively. This was evident in an 80% reduction maximum in total desorbable P from NH4 oxalate/F pretreated soils. In the adsorption experiments, P was strongly retained in soils at near targeted pH of lime (???6.0), but P adsorption gradually decreased with decreasing pH near the soil pHwater (???5.0). The overall findings suggest that P losses from the can be suppressed by an increase in the P retention capacity of soils via (i) an increase in the number of lime applications to maintain soil pHwater at near targeted pH values, and/or (ii) alum/iron sulfate amendments to provide additional Al- and Fe-based adsorbents. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

Soil Science Society of America Journal

Radiocarbon and geologic evidence reveal Ilopango volcano as source of the colossal 'mystery' eruption of 539/40 CE

Ilopango volcano (El Salvador) erupted violently during the Maya Classic Period (250–900 CE) in a densely-populated and intensively-cultivated region of the southern Maya realm, causing regional abandonment of an area covering more than 20,000 km 2 . However, neither the regional nor global impacts of the Tierra Blanca Joven (TBJ) eruption in Mesoamerica have been well appraised due to limitations in available volcanological, chronological, and archaeological observations. Here we present new evidence of the age, magnitude and sulfur release of the TBJ eruption, establishing it as one of the two hitherto unidentified volcanic triggers of a period of stratospheric aerosol loading that profoundly impacted Northern Hemisphere climate and society between circa 536 and 550 CE. Our chronology is derived from 100 new radiocarbon measurements performed on three subfossil tree trunks enveloped in proximal TBJ pyroclastic deposits. We also reassess the eruption magnitude using terrestrial (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras) and near-shore marine TBJ tephra deposit thickness measurements. Together, our new constraints on the age, eruption size (43.6 km 3 Dense Rock Equivalent of magma, magnitude = 7.0) and sulfur yield (∼9–90 Tg), along with Ilopango's latitude (13.7° N), squarely frame the TBJ as the major climate-forcing eruption of 539 or 540 CE identified in bipolar ice cores and sourced to the tropics. In addition to deepening appreciation of the TBJ eruption's impacts in Mesoamerica, linking it to the major Northern Hemisphere climatic downturn of the mid-6th century CE offers another piece in the puzzle of understanding Eurasian history of the period.

Guazapa

Parasite invasion following host reintroduction: a case of Yellowstone’s wolves

Wildlife reintroductions select or treat individuals for good health with the expectation that these individuals will fare better than infected animals. However, these individuals, new to their environment, may also be particularly susceptible to circulating infections and this may result in high morbidity and mortality, potentially jeopardizing the goals of recovery. Here, using the reintroduction of the grey wolf (Canis lupus) into Yellowstone National Park as a case study, we address the question of how parasites invade a reintroduced population and consider the impact of these invasions on population performance. We find that several viral parasites rapidly invaded the population inside the park, likely via spillover from resident canid species, and we contrast these with the slower invasion of sarcoptic mange, caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei. The spatio-temporal patterns of mange invasion were largely consistent with patterns of host connectivity and density, and we demonstrate that the area of highest resource quality, supporting the greatest density of wolves, is also the region that appears most susceptible to repeated disease invasion and parasite-induced declines. The success of wolf reintroduction appears not to have been jeopardized by infectious disease, but now shows signs of regulation or limitation modulated by parasites.

Wyoming

Managing for a changing climate: A bended interdisciplinary climate course

We developed a blended (or hybrid) interactive course— Managing for a Changing Climate —that provides a holistic view of climate change. The course results from communication with university students and natural and cultural resource managers as well as the need for educational efforts aimed at the public, legislators, and decision-makers. Content includes the components of the physical climate system, natural climate variability, anthropogenic drivers of climate change, climate models and projections, climate assessments, energy economics, environmental policy, vulnerabilities to climate hazards, impacts of climate change, and decision-making related to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. To convey most of the content, the course-development team created over 50 short videos (3–10 min each) in partnership with experts from a variety of academic, government, and industry institutions. The blended course has been offered as an upper-division, undergraduate course in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability and School of Meteorology (four times) and College of International Studies (in Italy, once) at the University of Oklahoma with over 100 total students. The course has also been presented online-only at no cost to the participants in four fall semesters with over 1,000 total registrations. Videos created for this course are freely available on the YouTube page of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. This course and its associated materials comprise high-quality, formal climate training and education that can be adapted to other formal and informal education settings beyond the walls of the university.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

How will we prepare for an uncertain future? The value of open data and code for unborn generations facing climate change

As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, humans face new challenges to long-term survival. Humans will likely be battling these problems long after 2100, when many climate projections currently end. A more forward-thinking view on our science and its direction may help better prepare for the future of our species. Researchers may consider datasets the basic units of knowledge, whose preservation is arguably more important than the articles that are written about them. Storing data and code in long-term repositories offers insurance against our uncertain future. To ensure open data are useful, data must be FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) and be complete with all appropriate metadata. By embracing open science practices, contemporary scientists give the future of humanity the information to make better decisions, save time and other valuable resources, and increase global equity as access to information is made free. This, in turn, will enable and inspire a diversity of solutions, to the benefit of many. Imagine the collective science conducted, the models built, and the questions answered if all of the data researchers have collectively gathered were organized and immediately accessible and usable by everyone. Investing in open science today may ensure a brighter future for unborn generations.

Proceedings of the Royal Society, B

Long-term effects of flipper bands on penguins

Changes in seabird populations, and particularly of penguins, offer a unique opportunity for investigating the impact of fisheries and climatic variations on marine resources. Such investigations often require large-scale banding to identify individual birds, but the significance of the data relies on the assumption that no bias is introduced in this type of long-term monitoring. After 5 years of using an automated system of identification of king penguins implanted with electronic tags (100 adult king penguins were implanted with a transponder tag, 50 of which were also flipper banded), we can report that banding results in later arrival at the colony for courtship in some years, lower breeding probability and lower chick production. We also found that the survival rate of unbanded, electronically tagged king penguin chicks after 2-3 years is approximately twice as large as that reported in the literature for banded chicks. ?? 2004 The Royal Society.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci

Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

Decision science as a framework for combining geomorphological and ecological modeling for the management of coastal systems

The loss of ecosystem services due to climate change and coastal development is projected to have significant impacts on local economies and conservation of natural resources. Consequently, there has been an increase in coastal management activities such as living shorelines, oyster reef restoration, marsh restoration, beach and dune nourishment, and revegetation projects. Coastal management decisions are complex and include challenging trade-offs. Decision science offers a useful framework to address such complex problems. Here, we provide a synthesis about how decision science can help to integrate research from multiple disciplines (physical and life sciences) with management of coastal and marine systems. Specifically, we discuss the importance of considering concepts and techniques from ecology, coastal geology, geomorphology, climate science, oceanography, and decision analysis when developing conservation plans for coastal restoration. We illustrate the process with several coastal restoration studies. Our capstone example is based on a recent barrier island restoration assessment project at Dauphin Island, Alabama, which included the development of geomorphological and ecological models. We show how decision science can be used as a framework to combine geomorphological and ecological modeling to help inform management decisions while considering uncertainty about system changes and risk tolerance. We also build on our examples through a review of recently developed techniques for spatial conservation planning for land acquisition decisions and the application of adaptive management for sequential decisions.

Alabama