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Probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and elevated concentrations of nitrate in ground water in Colorado

Draft Federal regulations may require that each State develop a State Pesticide Management Plan for the herbicides atrazine, alachlor, metolachlor, and simazine. Maps were developed that the State of Colorado could use to predict the probability of detecting atrazine and desethyl-atrazine (a breakdown product of atrazine) in ground water in Colorado. These maps can be incorporated into the State Pesticide Management Plan and can help provide a sound hydrogeologic basis for atrazine management in Colorado. Maps showing the probability of detecting elevated nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (nitrate) concentrations in ground water in Colorado also were developed because nitrate is a contaminant of concern in many areas of Colorado. Maps showing the probability of detecting atrazine and(or) desethyl-atrazine (atrazine/DEA) at or greater than concentrations of 0.1 microgram per liter and nitrate concentrations in ground water greater than 5 milligrams per liter were developed as follows: (1) Ground-water quality data were overlaid with anthropogenic and hydrogeologic data using a geographic information system to produce a data set in which each well had corresponding data on atrazine use, fertilizer use, geology, hydrogeomorphic regions, land cover, precipitation, soils, and well construction. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Relations were observed between ground-water quality and the percentage of land-cover categories within circular regions (buffers) around wells. Several buffer sizes were evaluated; the buffer size that provided the strongest relation was selected for use in the logistic regression models. (3) Relations between concentrations of atrazine/DEA and nitrate in ground water and atrazine use, fertilizer use, geology, hydrogeomorphic regions, land cover, precipitation, soils, and well-construction data were evaluated, and several preliminary multivariate models with various combinations of independent variables were constructed. (4) The multivariate models that best predicted the presence of atrazine/DEA and elevated concentrations of nitrate in ground water were selected. (5) The accuracy of the multivariate models was confirmed by validating the models with an independent set of ground-water quality data. (6) The multivariate models were entered into a geographic information system and the probability maps were constructed.

Colorado

Simulation of water-table response to management alternatives, central part of the western San Joaquin Valley, California

The occurrence of selenium in agricultural drainwater in the central pan of the western San Joaquin Valley, California, has focused concern on alternatives other than agricultural drains for managing shallow, poor-quality ground water. A transient, three-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to assess the response of the water table to various management alternatives. The modeled area is 551 square miles and includes the semiconfined and confined zones above and below the Corcoran Clay Member of the Tulare Formation of Pleistocene age. The model was calibrated using hydrologic data from 1972 to 1988 and was able to reproduce the average change in water-table altitude to within 4 percent. The calibrated model was extended to forecast to the year 2040 for various management alternatives including maintenance of present practices, land retirement, reduced recharge, increased ground-water pumping, combinations of these alternatives, and five alternatives proposed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The model indicates that if current rates of recharge and pumping (as determined from an analysis of 1980 water-budget data) are maintained, the total area subject to bare-soil evaporation will increase by more than 50 percent and drainflow will increase by 20 percent. Model results indicate that retirement of land will result in a water-table decline beneath the area retired, but the effect on adjacent areas will be small to negligible. The effects of reducing recharge or increasing ground-water pumping vary with the magnitude of the change relative to average conditions and the size of the area managed. The area of land subject to bare-soil evaporation and the amount of drainflow in the model area can be reduced by more than 40 and 50 percent, respectively, if (1) recharge is reduced by 40 percent (about 0.3 foot per year) in areas that currently use only surface water, and by 15 percent (an average of about O. 1 foot per year) in the remainder of the model area; (2) pumping is increased by 0.5 foot per year in areas that currently use surface and ground water.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulation of ground-water flow and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina, predevelopment through 1992

Ground-water flow and stream-aquifer relations were simulated for seven aquifers in Coastal Plain sediments in the vicinity of the U.S. Department of Energy, Savannah River Site (SRS), in Georgia and South Carolina to evaluate the potential for ground water containing hazardous materials to migrate from the SRS into Georgia through aquifers underlying the Savannah River (trans-river flow). The work was completed as part of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and Georgia Department of Natural Resources. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW, was used to simulate ground-water flow in three aquifer systems containing seven discrete aquifers: (1) the Floridan aquifer system, consisting of the Upper Three Runs and Gordon aquifers in sediments of Eocene age; (2) the Dublin aquifer system, consisting of the Millers Pond, and upper and lower Dublin aquifers in sediments of Paleocene and Late Cretaceous age; and (3) the Midville aquifer system, consisting of the upper and lower Midville aquifers of sediments in Late Cretaceous age. Ground-water flow was simulated using a series of steady-state simulations of predevelopment (pre-1953) conditions and six pumping periods--1953-60, 1961-70, 1971-75, 1976-80, 1981-86, and 1987-92--results are presented for predevelopment (prior to 1953) and modern-day (1987-92) conditions. Total simulated predevelopment inflow is 1,023 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), of which 76 percent is contributed by leakage from the Upper Three Runs aquifer. Over most of the study area, pumpage induced changes in ground-water levels, ground-water discharge to streams, and water-budget components were small during 1953-92, and changes in aquifer storage were insignificant. Simulated drawdown between predevelopment and modern-day conditions is small (less than 7 feet) and of limited areal extent--the largest simulated declines occur in the upper and lower Dublin aquifers in the vicinity of the Sandoz plant site in South Carolina. These declines extend beneath the Savannah River and change the configuration of the simulated potentiometric surface and flow paths near the river. Predevelopment and modern-day flowpaths were simulated near the Savannah River by using the U.S. Geological Survey particle-tracking code MODPATH. Eastward and westward zones of trans-river flow were identified in three principal areas as follows: --zone 1-from the Fall Line southward to the confluence of Hollow Creek and the Savannah River; --zone 2-from the zone 1 boundary southward to the southern border of the SRS (not including the Lower Three Runs Creek section); and --zone 3-from the zone 2 boundary, southward into the northern part of Screven County, Ga. All zones for all model layers were located within or immediately adjacent to the Savannah River alluvial valley and most were located in the immediate vicinity of the Savannah River. Recharge areas for each of the zones of trans-river flow generally are in the vicinity of major interstream drainage divides. Mean time-of-travel simulated for predevelopment conditions ranges from 300 to 24,000 years for westward trans-river flow zones; and from 550 to 41,000 years for eastward zones. Corresponding travel times under modern-day conditions range from 300 to 34,000 years for westward zones and from 580 to 31,000 years for eastward zones. Differences in travel times between predevelopment and modern-day simulations result from changes in hydraulic gradients due to ground-water pumpage that alter flow paths in the vicinity of the river. Recharge to Georgia trans-river flow zones originating on the SRS was simulated for the Gordon and upper Dublin aquifers during predevelopment, and in the Gordon aquifer during 1987-92. During 1987-92, SRS recharge was simulated in 6 model cells covering a 2-square mile area, located away from areas of ground-water contamination. Si

Georgia, South Carolina

Ground-water conditions and effects of mine dewatering in Desert Valley, Humboldt and Pershing Counties, northwestern Nevada, 1962-91

Desert Valley is a 1,200-square-mile, north- trending, structural basin, about 30 miles northwest of Winnemucca, Nevada. Unconsolidated basin-fill deposits exceeding 7,000 feet in thickness constitute the primary ground-water reservoir. Dewatering operations at an open-pit mine began in the Spring of 1985 in the northeast part of Desert Valley. Ground-water withdrawal for mine dewatering in 1991 was greater than three times the estimated average annual recharge from precipitation. The mine discharge water has been allowed to flow to areas west of the mine where it has created an artificial wetlands. This report documents the 1991 hydrologic conditions in Desert Valley and the change in conditions since predevelopment (pre-1962). It also summarizes the results of analyzing the simulated effects of open-pit mine dewatering on a basin-wide scale over time. Water-level declines associated with the dewatering have propagated north and south of the mine, but have been attenuated to the west due to the infiltration beneath the artificial wetlands. Maximum water-level declines beneath the open pits at the mine, as of Spring 1991, are about 300 feet. Changes in the hydrologic conditions since predevelopment are observed predominantly near the dewatering operations and the associated discharge lakes. General ground-water chemistry is essentially unchanged since pre- development. On the basis of a ground-water flow model used to simulate mine dewatering, a new equilibrium may slowly be approached only after 100 years of recovery from the time mine dewatering ceases.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Potential Chemical Effects of Changes in the Source of Water Supply for the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority

Chemical modeling was used by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (henceforth, Authority), to gain insight into the potential chemical effects that could occur in the Authority's water distribution system as a result of changing the source of water used for municipal and industrial supply from ground water to surface water, or to some mixture of the two sources. From historical data, representative samples of ground-water and surface-water chemistry were selected for modeling under a range of environmental conditions anticipated to be present in the distribution system. Mineral phases calculated to have the potential to precipitate from ground water were compared with the compositions of precipitate samples collected from the current water distribution system and with mineral phases calculated to have the potential to precipitate from surface water and ground-water/surface-water mixtures. Several minerals that were calculated to have the potential to precipitate from ground water in the current distribution system were identified in precipitate samples from pipes, reservoirs, and water heaters. These minerals were the calcium carbonates aragonite and calcite, and the iron oxides/hydroxides goethite, hematite, and lepidocrocite. Several other minerals that were indicated by modeling to have the potential to precipitate were not found in precipitate samples. For most of these minerals, either the kinetics of formation were known to be unfavorable under conditions present in the distribution system or the minerals typically are not formed through direct precipitation from aqueous solutions. The minerals with potential to precipitate as simulated for surface-water samples and ground-water/surface-water mixtures were quite similar to the minerals with potential to precipitate from ground-water samples. Based on the modeling results along with kinetic considerations, minerals that appear most likely to either dissolve or newly precipitate when surface water or ground-water/surface-water mixtures are delivered through the Authority's current distribution system are carbonates (particularly aragonite and calcite). Other types of minerals having the potential to dissolve or newly precipitate under conditions present throughout most of the distribution system include a form of silica, an aluminum hyroxide (gibbsite or diaspore), or the Fe-containing mineral Fe3(OH)8. Dissolution of most of these minerals (except perhaps the Fe-containing minerals) is not likely to substantially affect trace-element concentrations or aesthetic characteristics of delivered water, except perhaps hardness. Precipitation of these minerals would probably be of concern only if the quantities of material involved were large enough to clog pipes or fixtures. The mineral Fe3(OH)8 was not found in the current distribution system. Some Fe-containing minerals that were identified in the distribution system were associated with relatively high contents of selected elements, including As, Cr, Cu, Mn, Pb, and Zn. However, these Fe-containing minerals were not identified as minerals likely to dissolve when the source of water was changed from ground water to surface water or a ground-water/surface-water mixture. Based on the modeled potential for calcite precipitation and additional calculations of corrosion indices ground water, surface water, and ground-water/surface-water mixtures are not likely to differ greatly in corrosion potential. In particular, surface water and ground-water/surface-water mixtures do not appear likely to dissolve large quantities of existing calcite and expose metal surfaces in the distribution system to substantially increased corrosion. Instead, modeling calculations indicate that somewhat larger masses of material would tend to precipitate from surface water or ground-water/surface-water mixtures compared to ground water alone.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of the ground-water flow model for northern Utah Valley, Utah, updated to conditions through 2002

This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah, that originally simulated ground-water conditions during 1947-1980 and was updated to include conditions estimated for 1981-2002. Estimates of annual recharge to the ground-water system and discharge from wells in the area were added to the original ground-water flow model of the area. The files used in the original transient-state model of the ground-water flow system in northern Utah Valley were imported into MODFLOW-96, an updated version of MODFLOW. The main model input files modified as part of this effort were the well and recharge files. Discharge from pumping wells in northern Utah Valley was estimated on an annual basis for 1981-2002. Although the amount of average annual withdrawals from wells has not changed much since the previous study, there have been changes in the distribution of well discharge in the area. Discharge estimates for flowing wells during 1981-2002 were assumed to be the same as those used in the last stress period of the original model because of a lack of new data. Variations in annual recharge were assumed to be proportional to changes in total surface-water inflow to northern Utah Valley. Recharge specified in the model during the additional stress periods varied from 255,000 acre-feet in 1986 to 137,000 acre-feet in 1992. The ability of the updated transient-state model to match hydrologic conditions determined for 1981-2002 was evaluated by comparing water-level changes measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements made in February, March, or April were available for 39 wells in the modeled area during all or part of 1981-2003. In most cases, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level change from 1981 to 2002 simulated by the updated model reasonably matched the measured change. The greater-than-normal precipitation that occurred during 1982-84 resulted in period-of-record high water levels measured in many of the observation wells in March 1984. The model-computed water levels at the end of 1982-84 also are among the highest for the period. Both measured and computed water levels decreased during the period representing ground-water conditions from 1999 to 2002. Precipitation was less than normal during 1999-2002. The ability of the model to adequately simulate climatic extremes such as the wetter-than-normal conditions of 1982-84 and the drier-than-normal conditions of 1999-2002 indicates that the annual variation of recharge to the ground-water system based on streamflow entering the valley, which in turn is primarily dependent upon precipitation, is appropriate but can be improved. The updated transient-state model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley can be improved by making revisions on the basis of currently available data and information.

Utah

Use of computer programs STLK1 and STWT1 for analysis of stream-aquifer hydraulic interaction

Quantifying the hydraulic interaction of aquifers and streams is important in the analysis of stream base fow, flood-wave effects, and contaminant transport between surface- and ground-water systems. This report describes the use of two computer programs, STLK1 and STWT1, to analyze the hydraulic interaction of streams with confined, leaky, and water-table aquifers during periods of stream-stage fuctuations and uniform, areal recharge. The computer programs are based on analytical solutions to the ground-water-flow equation in stream-aquifer settings and calculate ground-water levels, seepage rates across the stream-aquifer boundary, and bank storage that result from arbitrarily varying stream stage or recharge. Analysis of idealized, hypothetical stream-aquifer systems is used to show how aquifer type, aquifer boundaries, and aquifer and streambank hydraulic properties affect aquifer response to stresses. Published data from alluvial and stratifed-drift aquifers in Kentucky, Massachusetts, and Iowa are used to demonstrate application of the programs to field settings. Analytical models of these three stream-aquifer systems are developed on the basis of available hydrogeologic information. Stream-stage fluctuations and recharge are applied to the systems as hydraulic stresses. The models are calibrated by matching ground-water levels calculated with computer program STLK1 or STWT1 to measured ground-water levels. The analytical models are used to estimate hydraulic properties of the aquifer, aquitard, and streambank; to evaluate hydrologic conditions in the aquifer; and to estimate seepage rates and bank-storage volumes resulting from flood waves and recharge. Analysis of field examples demonstrates the accuracy and limitations of the analytical solutions and programs when applied to actual ground-water systems and the potential uses of the analytical methods as alternatives to numerical modeling for quantifying stream-aquifer interactions.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Hydrogeology and water quality of areas with persistent ground-water contamination near Blackfoot, Bingham County, Idaho

The Groveland-Collins area near Blackfoot, Idaho, has a history of either periodic or persistent localized groundwater contamination. Water users in the area report offensive smell, metallic taste, rust deposits, and bacteria in water supplies. During 1984 and 1985, data were collected to define regional and local geologic, hydrologic, and groundwater quality conditions, and to identify factors that may have affected local groundwater quality. Infiltration or leakage of irrigation water is the major source of groundwater recharge, and water levels may fluctuate 15 ft or more during the irrigation season. Groundwater movement is generally northwestward. Groundwater contains predominantly calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate ions and characteristically has more than 200 mg/L hardness. Groundwater near the Groveland-Collins area may be contaminated from one or more sources, including infiltration of sewage effluent, gasoline or liquid fertilizer spillage, or land application of food processing wastewater. Subsurface basalt ridges impede lateral movement of water in localized areas. Groundwater pools temporarily behind these ridges and anomalously high water levels result. Maximum concentrations or values of constituents that indicate contamination were 1,450 microsiemens/cm specific conductance, 630 mg/L bicarbonate (as HCO 3 ), 11 mg/L nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen), 7.3 mg/L ammonia (as nitrogen), 5.9 mg/L organic nitrogen, 4.4 mg/L dissolved organic carbon, 7,000 micrograms/L dissolved iron, 5 ,100 microgram/L dissolved manganese, and 320 microgram/L dissolved zinc. Dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from 8.9 mg/L in uncontaminated areas to 0 mg/L in areas where food processing wastewater is applied to the land surface. Stable-isotope may be useful in differentiating between contamination from potato-processing wastewater and whey in areas where both are applied to the land surface. Development of a ground-water model to evaluate effects of land applications of organic wastewater and organic solute loading rates on subsurface water quality is not feasible at this time.

Idaho

Documentation and verification of VST2D; a model for simulating transient, Variably Saturated, coupled water-heat-solute Transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic 2-Dimensional, ground-water systems with variable fluid density

This report describes a model for simulating transient, Variably Saturated, coupled water-heatsolute Transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic, 2-Dimensional, ground-water systems with variable fluid density (VST2D). VST2D was developed to help understand the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on quantity and quality of variably saturated ground-water systems. The model solves simultaneously for one or more dependent variables (pressure, temperature, and concentration) at nodes in a horizontal or vertical mesh using a quasi-linearized general minimum residual method. This approach enhances computational speed beyond the speed of a sequential approach. Heterogeneous and anisotropic conditions are implemented locally using individual element property descriptions. This implementation allows local principal directions to differ among elements and from the global solution domain coordinates. Boundary conditions can include time-varying pressure head (or moisture content), heat, and/or concentration; fluxes distributed along domain boundaries and/or at internal node points; and/or convective moisture, heat, and solute fluxes along the domain boundaries; and/or unit hydraulic gradient along domain boundaries. Other model features include temperature and concentration dependent density (liquid and vapor) and viscosity, sorption and/or decay of a solute, and capability to determine moisture content beyond residual to zero. These features are described in the documentation together with development of the governing equations, application of the finite-element formulation (using the Galerkin approach), solution procedure, mass and energy balance considerations, input requirements, and output options. The VST2D model was verified, and results included solutions for problems of water transport under isohaline and isothermal conditions, heat transport under isobaric and isohaline conditions, solute transport under isobaric and isothermal conditions, and coupled water-heat-solute transport. The first three problems considered in model verification were compared to either analytical or numerical solutions, whereas the coupled problem was compared to measured laboratory results for which no known analytic solutions or numerical models are available. The test results indicate the model is accurate and applicable for a wide range of conditions, including when water (liquid and vapor), heat (sensible and latent), and solute are coupled in ground-water systems. The cumulative residual errors for the coupled problem tested was less than 10–8 cubic centimeter per cubic centimeter, 10-5 moles per kilogram, and 102 calories per cubic meter for liquid water content, solute concentration and heat content, respectively. This model should be useful to hydrologists, engineers, and researchers interested in studying coupled processes associated with variably saturated transport in ground-water systems.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Development and calibration of a ground-water flow model for the Sparta Aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana and simulated response to withdrawals, 1998-2027

The Sparta aquifer, which consists of the Sparta Sand, in southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana is a major water resource and provides water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. In recent years, the demand in some areas has resulted in withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer that substantially exceed replenishment of the aquifer. Considerable drawdown has occurred in the potentiometric surface forming regional cones of depression as water is removed from storage by withdrawals. These cones of depression are centered beneath the Grand Prairie area and the cities of Pine Bluff and El Dorado in Arkansas, and Monroe in Louisiana. The rate of decline for hydraulic heads in the aquifer has been greater than 1 foot per year for more than a decade in much of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana where hydraulic heads are now below the top of the Sparta Sand. Continued hydraulic-head declines have caused water users and managers alike to question the ability of the aquifer to supply water for the long term. Concern over protecting the Sparta aquifer as a sustainable resource has resulted in a continued, cooperative effort by the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey to develop, maintain, and utilize numerical ground-water flow models to manage and further analyze the ground-water system. The work presented in this report describes the development and calibration of a ground-water flow model representing the Sparta aquifer to simulate observed hydraulic heads, documents major differences in the current Sparta model compared to the previous Sparta model calibrated in the mid-1980's, and presents the results of three hypothetical future withdrawal scenarios. The current Sparta model-a regional scale, three-dimensional numerical ground-water flow model-was constructed and calibrated using available hydrogeologic, hydraulic, and water-use data from 1898 to 1997. Significant changes from the previous model include grid rediscretization of the aquifer, extension of the active model area northward beyond the Cane River Formation facies change, and representation of model boundaries. The current model was calibrated with the aid of parameter estimation, a nonlinear regression technique, combined with trial and error parameter adjustment using a total of 795 observations from 316 wells over 4 different years-1970, 1985, 1990, and 1997. The calibration data set provides broad spatial and temporal coverage of aquifer conditions. Analysis of the residual statistics, spatial distribution of residuals, simulated compared to observed hydrographs, and simulated compared to observed potentiometric surfaces were used to analyze the ability of the calibrated model to simulate aquifer conditions within acceptable error. The calibrated model has a root mean square error of 18 feet for all observations, an improvement of more than 12 feet from the previous model. The current Sparta model was used to predict the effects of three hypothetical withdrawal scenarios on hydraulic heads over the period 1998-2027 with one of those extended indefinitely until equilibrium conditions were attained, or steady state. In scenario 1a, withdrawals representing the time period from 1990 to 1997 was held constant for 30 years from 1998 to 2027. Hydraulic heads in the middle of the cone of depression centered on El Dorado decreased by 10 feet from the 1997 simulation to 222 feet below NGVD of 1929 in 2027. Hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression showed a greater decline from 61 feet below NGVD of 1929 to 78 feet below NGVD of 1929 in the center of the cone. With these same withdrawals extended to steady state (scenario 1b), hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression center declined an 2 Development and Calibration of a Ground-Water Flow Model for the Sparta Aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas and North-Central Louisiana and Simulated Response to Withdrawa

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulated effects of water-level changes in the Mississippi River and Pokegama Reservoir on ground-water levels, Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, used an existing, three-dimensional, numerical ground-water flow model (referred to as the calibrated model) to assess the effects of water-level changes in the Mississippi River and Pokegama Reservoir on ground-water levels in adjacent glaciofluvial aquifers in the Grand Rapids area of north-central Minnesota. Pokegama Reservoir consists of Pokegama Lake, Little Jay Gould Lake, Jay Gould Lake, Cut-off Lake, and Blackwater Lake. Water levels in the Pokegama Reservoir are regulated at Pokegama Dam on the Mississippi River west of Grand Rapids. A steady-state model was used, and simulations represent “worse-case” scenarios for the effects of lowering or raising the river and lake water levels. The simulated ground-water levels represent levels that would result if the river and lake stages permanently declined or rose by the specified amounts. Eight hypothetical scenarios were simulated by varying water levels in the Mississippi River and Pokegama Reservoir from values used in the calibrated model. In the simulations, water levels for the Mississippi River, riverine wetlands of the Mississippi River, and lakes of the Pokegama Reservoir were raised and lowered uniformly by 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 3.00 feet from calibrated water levels. The extent of aquifer water-level changes resulting from these river, wetland, and lake water-level changes varied because of the complex hydrogeology of the study area. A 1.00-foot decline in reservoir/river water levels caused a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline in the middle aquifer near Jay Gould and Little Jay Gould Lakes of 1.09 feet and a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline of 1.00 foot in the lower aquifer near Cut-off and Blackwater Lakes. The amount and extent of ground-water-level changes in the middle and lower aquifers can be explained by the thickness, extent, and connectivity of the aquifers. Surface-water/ground-water interactions near wetlands and lakes with water levels unchanged from the calibrated model resulted in small water-table altitude differences among the simulations. Results of the ground-water modeling indicate that lowering of the reservoir and river water levels by 1.00 foot likely will not substantially affect water levels in the middle and lower aquifers.

Minnesota

Availability, sustainability, and suitability of ground water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado: Types of analyses and data for use in subdivision water-supply reports

The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers Mesa consists of alluvial-fan deposits that overlie shale and, locally, sandstone. Maps of the base of the aquifer, the water table, and the saturated thickness of the aquifer were prepared from data from the well files of the Colorado Division of Water Resources. The base of the aquifer generally is topographically higher than the valleys of the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek, and direct hydraulic connection of the aquifer to North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek is limited. The aquifer is recharged primarily by infiltration of surface water diverted for irrigation. Ground water discharges to seeps and springs and through slope deposits at the boundaries of the aquifer. Data from the well files also were used to estimate the specific capacity of wells and to estimate the transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. A water budget was used to estimate recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Although storage within the aquifer likely varies seasonally and from year to year, it was assumed that there were no long-term changes in ground-water storage. Estimated average annual recharge to and discharge from the aquifer during November 1998 through October 2006 were about 30,767 acre-feet per year. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although the dissolved solids and dissolved sulfate concentrations in ground water from Rogers Mesa aquifer commonly exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels for drinking-water supplies, the quality of ground water from the aquifer generally is suitable for residential use. Concentrations of total nitrogen (nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen) in ground water ranged from 0.38 to 3.2 milligrams per liter and were less than the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of selenium from seeps and springs at the boundaries of the aquifer commonly exceeded 50 micrograms per liter, the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level for drinking-water supplies. This preliminary evaluation of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa could be improved with the collection of additional data including: additional mapping of hydrogeologic features; more accurate locations and altitudes of wells; accurate estimates of water-budget components; measurements of ground-water levels; and collection and analyses of ground-water samples. The use of numerical models of ground-water flow could improve evaluations of the potential effects of changes in land and water use on the water budget, aquifer storage, stream depletion, and well interference.

Colorado

Hydrogeologic setting of the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands, northern Minnesota

Seven test holes drilled in the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands indicate that the thickness of surficial materials along a north-south traverse parallel to Minnesota Highway 72 ranges from 163 feet near Blackduck, Minnesota to 57 feet about 3 miles south of Upper Red Lake. Lenses of sand and gravel occur immediately above bedrock on the Itasca moraine and are interbedded with lake clay and till under the peatlands. Vertical head gradients measured in a piezometer nest near Blackduck on the moraine are downward, indicative of recharge to the regional ground-water-flow system. Vertical head gradients are upward in a piezometer nest on a sand beach ridge in the peatlands 12 miles north of Upper Red Lake. Numerical sectional models indicate that this discharge probably comes from local flow systems recharged from ground-water mounds located under large raised bogs.

Minnesota

Factors affecting occurrence and distribution of selected contaminants in ground water from selected areas in the Piedmont Aquifer System, Eastern United States, 1993-2003

Results of ground-water sampling from 255 wells and 19 springs in 11 studies done by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program within the Piedmont Aquifer System (PAS) were analyzed to determine the factors affecting occurrence and distribution of selected contaminants. The contaminants, which were selected on the basis of potential human-health effects, included nitrate, pesticides, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and radon. The PAS was subdivided on the basis of the general rock type of the aquifers into three areas for the study—crystalline, carbonate, and siliciclastic. The 11 studies were designed to areally represent an individual aquifer rock type and overall are representative of the PAS in their distribution; 7 studies are in the crystalline-rock aquifers, 3 studies are in the siliciclasticrock aquifers, and 1 study is in the carbonate-rock aquifers. Four of the studies were focused on land use, 1 in an agricultural area and 3 in urban areas. The remaining studies had wells representing a range of land-use types. Analysis of results of nitrate sampling indicated that in 8 of the 10 areas where nitrate concentrations were measured, median concentrations of nitrate were below 3 mg/L (milligrams per liter); 2 of the 10 areas had statistically significant higher median concentrations when compared to the other 8 areas. The agricultural land-use study in the carbonate-rock aquifer in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin had the highest median nitrate concentration (11 mg/L), and 60 percent of the wells sampled exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L. The major aquifer study in the crystalline-rock aquifer of the Lower Susquehanna River Basin Study Unit had the second-highest median nitrate concentration. Nitrate concentrations were positively correlated to the percentage of agricultural land use around the well, the total input of nitrogen from all sources, dissolved oxygen concentration, lithology, depth to water, and soil-matrix characteristics. A linear regression model was used to determine that increases in the percentage of agricultural land use, the input of nitrogen from all sources, and dissolved oxygen were the most significant variables affecting increased concentration of nitrate. A logistic regression model was used to determine that those same factors were the most significant variables affecting whether or not the nitrate concentration would exceed 4 mg/L. Of the analysis of samples from 253 wells and 19 springs for 47 pesticides, no sample had a pesticide concentration that exceeded any USEPA MCL. The most frequently detected pesticide was desethyl atrazine, a degradation product of atrazine; the detection frequency was 47 percent. Other frequently detected pesticides included atrazine, metolachlor, simazine, alachlor, prometon, and dieldrin. Detection frequency was affected by the analytical reporting limits; the frequency of detection was somewhat lower when all pesticides were censored to the highest common detection limit. Source factors such as agricultural land use (for agricultural herbicides), urban land use (for insecticides), and the application rate were found to have positive statistical correlations with pesticide concentration. Transport factors such as depth to water and percentage of well-drained soils, sand, or silt typically were positively correlated with higher pesticide concentrations. Sampling for VOCs was conducted in 187 wells and 19 springs that were sampled for 59 VOCs. There were 137 detections of VOCs above the common censoring limit of 0.2 µg/L. The most frequently detected VOCs were chloroform, a trihalomethane, and methyl-tert butyl ether (MTBE), a fuel oxygenate. Seventy-nine wells had at least one VOC detected. The detections were related to land use and well depth. Kendall’s tau correlations indicated a significant positive correlation between chloroform concentration and urban land use, leaking underground storage tanks, population density, and well depth. MTBE concentrations also were positively correlated to urban land use, leaking underground storage tanks, population density, and well depth. Radon was sampled at 205 sites. The subdivisions used for analysis of other contaminants were not adequate for analysis of radon because radon varies on the basis of variations in mineralogy that are not reflected by the general lithologic categories used for the rest of the studies. Concentrations of radon were highest in areas where the crystalline-rock aquifers had felsic mineralogy, and the lowest concentrations of radon were in areas where the crystalline-rocks aquifer had mafic mineralogy. Water from wells in siliciclastic-rock aquifers had concentrations of radon lower than that in the felsic crystalline-rock aquifers. More than 90 percent of the wells sampled for radon exceeded the proposed MCL of 300 pCi/L (picoCuries per liter); however, only 13 percent of those wells had concentrations in water that exceeded the alternative maximum contaminant level (AMCL), a higher level that can be used by municipalities addressing other sources of radon exposure. Overall, concentrations of constituents were related to land-use factors for nitrate, pesticides, VOCs, and to aquifer lithology for radon. None of the 47 pesticides or 59 VOCs analyzed exceeded the MCLs where those constituents were sampled. Concentrations exceeded the MCL for nitrate in 11 percent of the wells sampled. Nearly 91 percent of the wells sampled exceeded the proposed MCL for radon. Additional sampling in selected areas would improve overall understanding of the PAS and increase the possibility of creating predictive models of ground-water quality in this area.

Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey,

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in fractured rock in the Newark basin, Rockland County, New York

Groundwater in the Newark basin aquifer flows primarily through discrete water-bearing zones parallel to the strike and dip of bedding, whereas flow perpendicular to the strike is restricted, thereby imparting anisotropy to the groundwater flow field. The finite-element model SUTRA was used to represent bedrock structure in the aquifer by spatially varying the orientation of the hydraulic conductivity tensor to reflect variations in the strike and dip of the bedding. Directions of maximum and medium hydraulic conductivity were oriented parallel to the bedding, and the direction of minimum hydraulic conductivity was oriented perpendicular to the bedding. Groundwater flow models were prepared to simulate local flow in the vicinity of the Spring Valley well field and regional flow through the Newark basin aquifer. The Newark basin contains sedimentary rocks deposited as alluvium during the Late Triassic and is one of a series of basins that developed when Mesozoic rifting of the super continent Pangea created the Atlantic Ocean. The westward-dipping basin is filled with interbedded facies of coarse-grained to fine-grained rocks that were intruded by diabase associated with Jurassic volcanism. The Newark basin aquifer is bounded to the north and east by the Palisades sill and to the west by the Ramapo Fault. Although the general dip of bedding is toward the fault, mapping of conglomerate beds indicates the rocks are folded into broad anticlines and synclines. An alternative, more uniform pattern of regional structure, based on interpolated strike and dip measurements from a number of sources, has also been proposed. Two groundwater flow models (A for the former type of bedrock structure and B for the latter type) were developed to represent these alternative depictions of bedrock structure. Transient simulations were calibrated to reproduce measured water-level recoveries in a 9.3 mi&sup2 area surrounding the Spring Valley well field during a 5-day aquifer test in 1992. The models represented a 330-ft thick rock mass divided vertically into 10 equally spaced layers and were calibrated through nonlinear regression. Results of model B best matched the observed water-level recoveries with an estimated hydraulic conductivity of 9.5 ft/day, specific storage of 7.6 x 10 -6 ft -1, and K max : K min anisotropy ratio (hydraulic conductivity parallel to bedding: perpendicular to bedding) of 72:1. Model error was 50 percent greater in model A because the assumed structure did not match the actual strike of bedding in this area. Steady-state simulations of regional flow through the 85.4-mi2 modeled extent of the Newark basin aquifer represented both the alluvial aquifer beneath the Mawah River and the fractured bedrock. The rock mass was divided into two aquifer units: an upper 500-ft thick unit divided into 10 equally spaced layers through which most groundwater is assumed to flow and a lower unit divided into 7 layers with increasing thickness. Models were calibrated through nonlinear regression to average water levels measured in 140 wells from August 2005 through April 2007. Water levels simulated using the two models were similar and generally matched those observed, and the average recharge rate estimated using both models was 19 inches/year for the simulated period. Estimated transmissivity parallel to the strike of bedding (1,100 ft&sup2/d) was uniform in two transmissivity (T) zones in model A, but in model B the transmissivity of a high T zone (1,600 ft&sup2/d), delineated on the basis of aquifer test data, was slightly greater than in a low T zone (1,300 ft&sup2/d). The K max : K min anisotropy was estimated to be 58:1 in model A and 410:1 in model B, so the proportion of flow perpendicular to bedding is less in model B than in model A. Distributions of groundwater age simulated with models A and B are similar and indicate that most shallow ground-water (225 ft below the bedrock surface) is 5 t

Scientific Investigations Report

Regional ground-water-flow models of surficial sand and gravel aquifers along the Mississippi River between Brainerd and St. Cloud, central Minnesota

This report documents regional ground-waterflow models constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) to satisfy the requirements of their Source Water Protection Plan (SWPP). Steady-state single-layer ground-water-flow models were constructed with the computer program MODFLOW to simulate flow in surficial sand and gravel aquifers along the Mississippi River between Brainerd and St. Cloud in central Minnesota. The hydrogeologic data that were used to construct the models were compiled from available sources. Calibrated values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity and areal recharge for the aquifer in a northern model area were 70 m/d and 3.0x10-4 m/d, respectively. This model was sensitive to net areal recharge, vertical hydraulic conductivity of perennial streambed sediments, and horizontal hydraulic conductivity. The major source of net inflow to the model was from edge boundary cells. The major source of net outflow was ground-water discharge to perennial and ephemeral streams. Calibrated values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity and areal recharge for the aquifer in a southern model area were 70 m/d and 6.0x10-4 m/d, respectively. This model was sensitive mostly to horizontal hydraulic conductivity. Net areal recharge and ground-water discharge to perennial streams were the major sources of net inflow and outflow, respectively.

Minnesota

Geohydrology of the French Creek Basin and simulated effects of drought and ground-water withdrawals, Chester County, Pennsylvania

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, to develop a regional ground-water-flow model of the French Creek Basin in Chester County, Pa. The model was used to assist water-resource managers by illustrating the interconnection between ground-water and surface-water systems. The 70.7-square mile French Creek Basin is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province and is underlain by crystalline and sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers. Annual water budgets were calculated for 1969-2001 for the French Creek Basin upstream of streamflow-measurement station French Creek near Phoenixville (01472157). Average annual precipitation was 46.28 in. (inches), average annual streamflow was 20.29 in., average annual base flow determined by hydrograph separation was 12.42 in., and estimated average annual ET (evapotranspiration) was 26.10 in. Estimated average annual recharge was 14.32 in. and is equal to 31 percent of the average annual precipitation. Base flow made up an average of 61 percent of streamflow. Ground-water flow in the French Creek Basin was simulated using the finite-difference MODFLOW-96 computer program. The model structure is based on a simplified two-dimensional conceptualization of the ground-water-flow system. The modeled area was extended outside the French Creek Basin to natural hydrologic boundaries; the modeled area includes 40 square miles of adjacent areas outside the basin. The hydraulic conductivity for each geologic unit was calculated from reported specific-capacity data determined from aquifer tests and was adjusted during model calibration. The model was calibrated for above-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on May 1, 2001, using a recharge rate of 20 in/yr (inches per year). The model was calibrated for below-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on September 11 and 17, 2001, using a recharge rate of 6.2 in/yr. Average conditions were simulated by adjusting the recharge rate until simulated streamflow at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 matched the long-term (1968-2001) average base flow of 54.1 cubic feet per second. The recharge rate used for average conditions was 15.7 in/yr. The effect of drought in the French Creek Basin was simulated using a drought year recharge rate of 8 in/yr for 3 months. After 3 months of drought, the simulated streamflow of French Creek at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 decreased 34 percent. The simulations show that after 6 months of average recharge (15.7 in/yr) following drought, streamflow and water levels recovered almost to pre-drought conditions. The effect of increased ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow in the South Branch French Creek Subbasin was simulated under average and drought conditions with pumping rates equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the Delaware River Basin Commission Ground Water Protected Area (GWPA) withdrawal limit (1,393 million gallons per year) with all pumped water removed from the basin. For average recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 18, 28, and 37 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. After 3 months of drought recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 27, 40, and 52 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. The effect of well location on base flow, water levels, and the sources of water to the well was simulated by locating a hypothetical well pumping 200 gallons per minute in different places in the Beaver Run Subbasin with all pumped water removed from the basin. The smallest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Run was from a well on the drainage divide between the French Creek Basin and the Marsh Creek Basin to the south; the simulated base flow of Beaver Run at the mouth was reduced 1 percent. The greatest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Creek was from a well close to Beaver Run; the simulated base flow of Beaver Run at the mouth was reduced 8 percent. The simulations showed that (1) if the contributing area of a well is in a basin, pumping will affect stream base flow and water levels in that basin whether the well is inside or outside that basin; (2) wells in different areas of a basin away from a divide produce a similar reduction in base flow; (3) a well within a basin will derive more water from diverted base flow and less water from storage than a well on or near a basin divide; and (4) the reduction in base flow at the mouth of the stream is the same for a well in the headwaters and a well downstream near the confluence. Model simulations illustrate some of the typical analyses and results that can be produced. The model was calibrated using annual values for recharge and ground-water ET and then was run using the annual values in a seasonally independent transient mode to show changes with time. The timing and relative magnitude of some of the changes simulated with the model when viewed in terms of a normal climatic year may be subject to considerable uncertainty because of the variability in seasonal recharge and ground-water ET rates. Transient model simulations for short-term periods are indicative of possible hydrologic system response and are considered an approximation.

Pennsyvlania