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What the cliffs near America’s earliest settlements tell us about climate change

Climate change is a big problem for natural habitats, people, and the systems that support society, including roads, water supply, electrical grids, and phone and internet connections. It’s an important theme in politics, economics, and culture. Scientists make computer models to show what the climate might be like in the future, and it looks very different from what we are used to. Scientists can also learn about the future climate by looking at geological records from the past. About 3 million years ago, most of the US east coast was under water. Sediments that collected on the ocean floor show what the ocean environment was like back then. Some of these sediments are now exposed above water as bluffs along the James River near colonial Jamestown in southeastern Virginia, and they hold many clues as to what Earth may look like in the future.

Virginia

The east coast petroleum province: Science and society

The U.S. Atlantic offshore, especially the mid-Atlantic, was an exciting exploration area from the 1970s into the 1980s. Much pioneering 'frontier' activity in both scientific and policy matters occurred in this area. Although production was not achieved, objective geological evidence indicates that the province does have potential. Major population centers of the mid-Atlantic area demand large amounts of energy and enormous amounts of crude and product are shipped through East Coast waters. Nevertheless, exploration has been shut down by moratoria, environmental concerns, and international pricing. It is suggested that the province will be revisited in the future and that the geologic and environmental information that has been generated at great cost should be preserved for use by the next generation of explorationists and policy-makers.

Northeastern Geology and Environmental Sciences

Sources, distributions and dynamics of dissolved organic matter in the Canada and Makarov Basins

A comprehensive survey of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) was conducted in the Canada and Makarov Basins and adjacent seas during 2010–2012 to investigate the dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the Arctic Ocean. Sources and distributions of DOM in polar surface waters were very heterogeneous and closely linked to hydrological conditions. Canada Basin surface waters had relatively low DOC concentrations (69 ± 6 μmol L −1 ), CDOM absorption ( a 325 : 0.32 ± 0.07 m −1 ) and CDOM-derived lignin phenols (3 ± 0.4 nmol L −1 ), and high spectral slope values ( S 275–295 : 31.7 ± 2.3 μm −1 ), indicating minor terrigenous inputs and evidence of photochemical alteration in the Beaufort Gyre. By contrast, surface waters of the Makarov Basin had elevated DOC (108 ± 9 μmol L −1 ) and lignin phenol concentrations (15 ± 3 nmol L −1 ), high a 325 values (1.36 ± 0.18 m −1 ), and low S 275–295 values (22.8 ± 0.8 μm −1 ), indicating pronounced Siberian river inputs associated with the Transpolar Drift and minor photochemical alteration. Observations near the Mendeleev Plain suggested limited interactions of the Transpolar Drift with Canada Basin waters, a scenario favoring export of Arctic DOM to the North Atlantic. The influence of sea-ice melt on DOM was region-dependent, resulting in an increase (Beaufort Sea), a decrease (Bering-Chukchi Seas), and negligible change (deep basins) in surface DOC concentrations and a 325 values. Halocline structures differed between basins, but the Canada Basin upper halocline and Makarov Basin halocline were comparable in their average DOC (65–70 μmol L −1 ) and lignin phenol concentrations (3–4 nmol L −1 ) and S 275–295 values (22.9–23.7 μm −1 ). Deep-water DOC concentrations decreased by 6–8 μmol L −1 with increasing depth, water mass age, nutrient concentrations, and apparent oxygen utilization. Maximal estimates of DOC degradation rates (0.036–0.039 μmol L −1 yr −1 ) in the deep Arctic were lower than those in other ocean basins, possibly due to low water temperatures. DOC concentrations in bottom waters (>2500 m; 46 ± 2 μmol L −1 ) of the Canada and Makarov Basins were slightly lower than those reported for deep waters of the Eurasian Basin and Nordic Seas. Elevated a 325 values (by 10–20%) were observed near the seafloor, indicating biological activity in Arctic basin sediments.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Planetary science decadal survey planetary mission concept study report: Ceres: Exploration of Ceres’ habitability

Dwarf planet Ceres is a compelling target as an evolved ocean world with, at least, regional brine reservoirs and potentially ongoing geological activity. As the most water-rich body in the inner solar system (in relative abundance), it is a representative of the population of planetesimals that brought volatiles and organics to the inner solar system. Situated in the Main Belt of asteroids, Ceres is accessible enough for a sample return with the resources of a typical medium-class (New Frontiers) NASA mission. Under the Discovery program, Dawn explored Ceres from 2015 to 2018. The extensive dataset revealed the presence of liquid, brine-driven activity, organic matter, and a rich salt chemistry. With this evidence, the overarching goals of the mission concept presented herein are to quantify Ceres’ current habitability potential and origin.

Cooperator Report

Recognition of oxidized sulfide minerals as an exploration guide for uranium

The difference in color between tan to red oxidized sandstone and gray reduced sandstone on either side of the reduction-oxidation (redox) interface, which is- the locus of uranium concentration in roll-type deposits, has been noted and used locally as an exploration guide within known uranium districts. Reduced sandstone is characterized in many deposits by the presence of iron sulflde minerals (particularly marcasite and pyrite) that occur as replacements of and overgrowths on iron-titanium oxide minerals and plant debris and as cement of detrital grains. Oxidation of the sulfldes by oxygenated ground water forms yellow to red ferric oxide and ferric hydroxide phases ("limonite") that replace the FeS 2 minerals. Processes other than the oxidation of sulfldes, however, can cause reddening of clastic sediments without the creation of a redox boundary, and so color alone is not a sufficient condition by which to judge the potential for uranium ore in frontier areas. Ferric oxides that form by the oxidation of iron sulflde minerals can be distinguished from other forms of ferric oxide by reflection microscopic examination of polished grain mounts- and polished thin sections'. Diagnostic features of oxidized sulfldes are limonite pseudomorphs of sulfldes and limonite containing internal textures that mimic characteristic textures of previously sulfldized detrital phases. Recognition of oxidized sulfides by reflection microscopy, then, can distinguish oxidized sandstones, which might have a redox boundary downdip and which would therefore be favorable hosts for uranium concentration, from those without such potential.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey

Exploring the impacts of seagrass on coupled marsh-tidal flat morphodynamics

Intertidal coastal environments are prone to changes induced by sea level rise, increases in storminess, temperature, and anthropogenic disturbances. It is unclear how changes in external drivers may affect the dynamics of low energy coastal environments because their response is non-linear, and characterized by many thresholds and discontinuities. As such, process-based modeling of the ecogeomorphic processes underlying the dynamics of these ecosystems is useful, not only to predict their change through time, but also to generate new hypotheses and research questions. Here, we used a three-point dynamic model to investigate how seagrass might affect the behavior of coupled marsh-tidal flat systems. The model directly incorporates ecogeomorphological feedbacks among wind waves, salt marsh vegetation, allochthonous sediment loading, seagrasses and sea level rise. The model was applied to examine potential behaviors of salt marsh systems in the Virginia coastal bays. Differences due to the presence or absence of seagrass and stochastic vs. constant drivers lead to the emergence of complex behaviors in the coupled salt marsh-tidal flat system. In intertidal areas without seagrass, small tidal flats are unlikely to expand and provide enough sediment to the salt marshes to combat sea level rise. However, as the tidal flat expands, the concurrent increase in sediment supply due to wave-induced processes allows for the salt marsh to maintain pace with sea level at the expense of salt marsh extent. The presence of seagrass has two effects: (1) it decreases near bed shear stresses thus reducing the sediment flux to the salt marsh platform; (2) it reduces the wave energy acting on the salt marsh scarp, thus reducing boundary erosion. Model results indicate that the reductions in wave power and near bed shear stresses when seagrass is present provide an overall stabilizing effect on the coupled marsh-tidal flat system; but as water depth increases due to sea level rise or as external sediment supply increases, light conditions decline and the system reverts to that of a bare tidal flat.

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Identifying novel Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) spawning areas in a large unimpounded river system

Introduction: Despite the success of the Sea Lamprey Control Program (SLCP) in reducing Sea Lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) abundance throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes, control remains a significant challenge in the Saint Clair-Detroit River System (SCDRS) due to the system's size, flow dynamics, and amount of potentially suitable spawning habitat. Methods: We used acoustic telemetry to identify repeated patterns in habitat use, presumed spawning areas, and migratory routes for 271 acoustic-tagged Sea Lamprey in the SCDRS during the 2016 and 2017 spawning seasons. Results: Sixty-nine percent of tagged Sea Lamprey appeared to spawn in the Saint Clair River with many individuals displaying commonly shared movement histories in terms of timing and channel use. Probable spawning locations were associated with the main river channel upstream of major bifurcations (e.g., Stag and Fawn Islands) in the Saint Clair River and overlapped with areas of high bottom flow. Discussion: Selection for low flow refugia during migration appears water temperature dependent. Traditional control methods are likely to be inefficient in the SCDRS, highlighting the need for novel supplemental strategies tailored to large river systems.

Michigan, Ontario

Phenotypic plasticity or a reproductive dead end? Primnoa pacifica (Cnidaria: Alcyonacea) in the southeastern Alaska region

Red tree corals ( Primnoa pacifica ) are abundant in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, from the glacial fjords of Southeast Alaska where they emerge to as shallow as 6 m, to the continental shelf edge and seamounts where they are more commonly found at depths greater than 150 – 500 m. This keystone species forms large thickets, creating habitat for many associated species, including economically valuable fishes and crabs, and so are important benthic suspension feeders in this region. Though the reproductive periodicity of this species was reported in 2014 from a shallow fjord (Tracy Arm), this study examined reproductive ecologies from 8 sites – two within Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, three on the continental shelf edge, one within Endicott Arm (Holkham Bay) and two time points from the Tracy Arm (Holkham Bay) study. Male reproductive traits were similar at all sites but there were distinct differences in oogenesis. Though per polyp fecundity mostly showed no significant difference between sites, there was a non-significant trend of increasing number of oocytes with depth. In addition, the average oocyte size from Tracy Arm (the shallowest site) was 105 μm, whereas from Shutter Ridge (one of the deepest sites) the average size was 309 μm. Moreover, the maximum oocyte size at Endicott Arm was 221 μm and at Tracy Arm was 802 μm (both shallow sites), whereas at Dixon Entrance (a deep site) it was 2120 μm, a difference not usually observed within a single species. We propose two theories to explain the observed differences, (a) this species shows great phenotypic plasticity in reproductive ecology, adjusting to different environmental variables based on energetic need and potentially demonstrating micro-evolution; or (b) the fjord sites are at a reproductive dead end, with the stress of shallow-water conditions effectively preventing gametogenesis reaching full potential and likely limiting successful reproductive events from occurring, at least on a regular basis.

Alaska

One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov) notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1) and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

Frontiers of Biogeography

Keeping an eye on water quality from the sky

You can learn a lot about rivers, lakes, estuaries, and oceans by looking down at them from the sky. Scientists use a technique called remote sensing to measure the amount of light or heat energy reflected and emitted from the Earth. Sensors can be on satellites or mounted on airplanes, helicopters, or drones. Scientists use this information to map the quality of water in the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. Remote sensing helps scientists see where and when there might be problems for human health or for the plants and animals living in the estuary.

California

Predicting aquatic habitat connectivity across watershed boundaries: Implications for interbasin spread of nonindigenous aquatic species.

Understanding habitat connectivity is critical for managing nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) spread. Dams and watershed boundaries can be impassable to NAS during typical conditions but may become temporarily passable during flooding. The goal of our project was to develop an approach for identifying locations of aquatic connectivity at a fine spatial scale along watershed boundaries using readily available data. To develop this approach, we focused on the potential for range expansion of invasive fish in the United States via possible cross-boundary habitat connections. First, we developed an index using metrics of elevation, watershed size, and geology at regular points along a watershed boundary to stratify points by likelihood of connectivity during high precipitation (>20 mm of precipitation in a 3-day period). We then used a subset of points across a gradient of connectivity likelihoods to gather Landsat-derived observed surface water data and developed a statistical model to predict surface water presence from landscape characteristics. We applied the model throughout the entire watershed boundary to identify locations of hydrologic connectivity during high-water events. The presence of surface water on watershed boundaries was predicted by the interactions between watershed boundary point elevation relative to the minimum adjacent HUC-12 elevations and watershed boundary point elevation relative to neighboring point elevations (marginal R 2 = 0.94). Our approach can be used to identify potential areas of surface water connectivity between watersheds quickly and easily at a fine spatial scale using readily available, remotely sensed data that can inform conservation and management actions across disciplines.

North Dakota, South Dakota

Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions

In response to degraded water quality, federal policy makers in the US and Canada called for a 40% reduction in phosphorus (P) loads to Lake Erie, and state and provincial policy makers in the Great Lakes region set a load-reduction target for the year 2025. Here, we configured five separate SWAT (US Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to assess load reduction strategies for the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, the largest P source contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. Although several potential pathways may achieve the target loads, our results show that any successful pathway will require large-scale implementation of multiple practices. For example, one successful pathway involved targeting 50% of row cropland that has the highest P loss in the watershed with a combination of three practices: subsurface application of P fertilizers, planting cereal rye as a winter cover crop, and installing buffer strips. Achieving these levels of implementation will require local, state/provincial, and federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector to set shared implementation goals and to demand innovation and honest assessments of water quality-related programs, policies, and partnerships.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Are large-scale flow experiments informing the science and management of freshwater ecosystems?

Greater scientific knowledge, changing societal values, and legislative mandates have emphasized the importance of implementing large-scale flow experiments (FEs) downstream of dams. We provide the first global assessment of FEs to evaluate their success in advancing science and informing management decisions. Systematic review of 113 FEs across 20 countries revealed that clear articulation of experimental objectives, while not universally practiced, was crucial for achieving management outcomes and changing dam-operating policies. Furthermore, changes to dam operations were three times less likely when FEs were conducted primarily for scientific purposes. Despite the recognized importance of riverine flow regimes, four-fifths of FEs involved only discrete flow events. Over three-quarters of FEs documented both abiotic and biotic outcomes, but only one-third examined multiple taxonomic responses, thus limiting how FE results can inform holistic dam management. Future FEs will present new opportunities to advance scientifically credible water policies.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Disease prevalence and snail predation associated with swell-generated damage on the threatened coral, Acropora palmata (Lamarck)

Disturbances such as tropical storms cause coral mortality and reduce coral cover as a direct result of physical damage. Storms can be one of the most important disturbances in coral reef ecosystems, and it is crucial to understand their long-term impacts on coral populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine trends in disease prevalence and snail predation on damaged and undamaged colonies of the threatened coral species, Acropora palmata, following an episode of heavy ocean swells in the US Virgin Islands (USVI). At three sites on St. Thomas and St. John, colonies of A. palmata were surveyed monthly over 1 year following a series of large swells in March 2008 that fragmented 30–93% of colonies on monitored reefs. Post-disturbance surveys conducted from April 2008 through March 2009 showed that swell-generated damage to A. palmata caused negative indirect effects that compounded the initial direct effects of physical disturbance. During the 12 months after the swell event, white pox disease prevalence was 41% higher for colonies that sustained damage from the swells than for undamaged colonies (df = 207, p = 0.01) with greatest differences in disease prevalence occurring during warm water months. In addition, the corallivorous snail, Coralliophila abbreviata, was 46% more abundant on damaged corals than undamaged corals during the 12 months after the swell event (df = 207, p = 0.006).

Frontiers in Marine Science

Variations in climate drive behavior and survival of small desert tortoises

In the Mojave Desert, timing and amounts of precipitation profoundly affect availability of water and annual plant foods necessary for the threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) to survive, especially during prolonged droughts. As part of recovery actions to increase declining populations, we translocated 83 juvenile and young desert tortoises raised in head-start pens for 4–10 years to a new location 15 km away during fall of 2013 and 2014. We tracked them for 9 years during a megadrought, during multiple years of low rainfall and a few years when precipitation neared or exceeded long-term norms. We evaluated behaviors and how precipitation and forage availability affected survival. At the end of the study, 21.6% of tortoises were alive and 6 had grown to adulthood. Annual models of survival indicated that tortoise size was the driving variable in most years, followed by number of repeatedly used burrows during periods of temperature extremes. Other variables affecting survival in ≥1 year were vegetation, movements during the first 2 years post-translocation, and condition index, a measure of health. Tortoises moved more, expanded home ranges, and grew rapidly in years when winter rainfall approached or exceeded long-term norms and annual plants were available to eat. During dry years, movements and growth were limited. Exceptions to this pattern occurred in the last year of study, a dry year: tortoises grew, moved more, and home ranges increased. The increase in size and approaching adulthood may have stimulated greater travelling. Some left the study area, indicating a need for large release areas. We may have aided survival by offering water twice yearly when handling, because some tortoises drank and increased in mass up to 40%. Prolonged droughts and hotter temperatures can limit recovery of populations, reduce survival of young tortoises, and increase the time to maturity.

California

United States Gulf of Mexico waters provide important nursery habitat for Mexico’s green turtle nesting populations

Resolving natal populations for juvenile green turtles is challenging given their potential for extensive dispersal during the oceanic stage and ontogenetic shifts among nursery habitats. Mitochondrial DNA markers have elucidated patterns of connectivity between green turtle nesting populations (rookeries) and juvenile foraging aggregations. However, missing rookery baseline data and haplotype sharing among populations have often impeded inferences, including estimating origins of Gulf of Mexico juveniles. Here, we assessed genetic structure among seven foraging aggregations spanning southern Texas (TX) to southwestern Florida (SWFL), including Port Fourchon, Louisiana (LA); a surface-pelagic aggregation (SP) offshore of Louisiana and Florida; Santa Rosa Island, Florida (SRI); St. Joseph Bay, Florida (SJB); and the Big Bend region, Florida (BB). We estimated source contributions to aggregations with novel genetic data (excluding SP and BB) using a Bayesian many-to-one mixed stock analysis (MSA) approach. Haplotype frequencies for western (TX, LA, SP, SRI) and eastern (SJB, BB, SWFL) aggregations were significantly differentiated. The largest shift in haplotype frequencies between proximal nursery sites occurred between SRI and SJB, separated by only 150 km, highlighting the lack of a geographic yardstick for predicting genetic structure. In contrast to previous MSA results, there was no signal of Florida juveniles at any foraging site. Mexican contributions dominated in all aggregations, with strong connectivity between western Bay of Campeche (Tamaulipas/Veracruz) rookeries and western foraging aggregations. MSA indicated more diverse Mexican origins for eastern aggregations, with larger inputs from the eastern Bay of Campeche (Campeche/Yucatán), Campeche Bank, and Quintana Roo rookeries. These results demonstrate the significance of the Gulf of Mexico coast and offshore waters of the United States as important nursery habitat for green turtles of Mexican origin and highlight the need for international coordination for management of these populations.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Managing climate refugia for freshwater fishes under an expanding human footprint

Within the context of climate adaptation, the concept of climate refugia has emerged as a framework for addressing future threats to freshwater fish populations. We evaluated recent climate‐refugia management associated with water use and landscape modification by comparing efforts in the US states of Oregon and Massachusetts, for which there are contrasting resource use patterns. Using these examples, we discuss tools and principles that can be applied more broadly. Although many early efforts to identify climate refugia have focused on water temperature, substantial gains in evaluating other factors and processes regulating climate refugia (eg stream flow, groundwater availability) are facilitating refined mapping of refugia and assessment of their ecological value. Major challenges remain for incorporating climate refugia into water‐quality standards, evaluating trade‐offs among policy options, addressing multiple species’ needs, and planning for uncertainty. However, with a procedurally transparent and conceptually sound framework to build upon, recent efforts have revealed a promising path forward.

Massachusetts, Oregon

Exploring silica stoichiometry on a large floodplain riverscape

Freshwater ecosystems are critical zones of nutrient and carbon (C) processing along the land-sea continuum. Relative to our understanding of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycling within the freshwater systems, the controls on silicon (Si) cycling and export are less understood. Understanding Si biogeochemistry and its coupled biogeochemical processing with N and P has direct implications for both freshwater and coastal ecosystems, as the amount of Si in relation to N and P exported by rivers to coastal receiving waters can determine phytoplankton species assemblages, which in turn affects C cycling and food web structure. Here we examine the relationships between dissolved Si (DSi), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, and how these relationships relate to basin land cover, lithology, and river hydrogeomorphology (i.e., among different ‘aquatic areas’) in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) using two datasets (one from the tributaries and one from the mainstem) that span a nine-year period (2010-2018) representing >10,000 unique samples. We found significant declines in DSi concentrations, as well as Si:TP and Si:TN ratios along the north-south gradient of the mainstem UMRS across all six aquatic area types. This signal was driven partially by a corresponding decline in tributary DSi inputs along this latitudinal gradient. Contrary to findings from other regions of North America, basin land cover was not an important predictor of tributary DSi concentrations, especially compared to lithology. However, Si:TN and Si:TP ratios appear to be strongly controlled by basin land cover, likely due to excess N and P loading from row-crop agriculture. Si, and its ratio with N and P (i.e., Si stoichiometry), was similar across most aquatic area types, including run-of-river impoundments and the main channel, suggesting similar processes affecting Si, N, and P concentrations in these reaches. However, backwater lakes had lower DSi and TN concentrations and compared to the other aquatic area types, highlighting the importance of water residence time and nutrient uptake in controlling Si stoichiometry in inland waters. Together, our results show rivers are not simple pipes for Si, but rather the complexity in watershed characteristics, hydrology, and biological uptake results in dynamic Si stoichiometry along the river continuum.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution