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USGS2012

Assessment of boreal forest historical C dynamics in the Yukon River Basin: relative roles of warming and fire regime change

Carbon (C) dynamics of boreal forest ecosystems have substantial implications for efforts to mitigate the rise of atmospheric CO 2 and may be substantially influenced by warming and changing wildfire regimes. In this study we applied a large-scale ecosystem model that included dynamics of organic soil horizons and soil organic matter characteristics of multiple pools to assess forest C stock changes of the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska, USA, and Canada from 1960 through 2006, a period characterized by substantial climate warming and increases in wildfire. The model was calibrated for major forests with data from long-term research sites and evaluated using a forest inventory database. The regional assessment indicates that forest vegetation C storage increased by 46 Tg C, but that total soil C storage did not change appreciably during this period. However, further analysis suggests that C has been continuously lost from the mineral soil horizon since warming began in the 1970s, but has increased in the amorphous organic soil horizon. Based on a factorial experiment, soil C stocks would have increased by 158 Tg C if the YRB had not undergone warming and changes in fire regime. The analysis also identified that warming and changes in fire regime were approximately equivalent in their effects on soil C storage, and interactions between these two suggests that the loss of organic horizon thickness associated with increases in wildfire made deeper soil C stocks more vulnerable to loss via decomposition. Subbasin analyses indicate that C stock changes were primarily sensitive to the fraction of burned forest area within each subbasin and that boreal forest ecosystems in the YRB are currently transitioning from being sinks to sources at ∼0.7% annual area burned. We conclude that it is important for international mitigation efforts focused on controlling atmospheric CO 2 to consider how climate warming and changes in fire regime may concurrently affect the CO 2 sink strength of boreal forests. It is also important for large-scale biogeochemical and earth system models to include organic soil dynamics in applications to assess regional C dynamics of boreal forests responding to warming and changes in fire regime.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2008

Influences of calcium availability and tree species on Ca isotope fractionation in soil and vegetation

The calcium (Ca) isotope system is potentially of great use for understanding biogeochemical processes at multiple scales in forest ecosystems, yet remains largely unexplored for this purpose. In order to further our understanding of Ca behavior in forests, we examined two nearly adjacent hardwood-dominated catchments with differing soil Ca concentrations, developed from crystalline bedrock, to determine the variability of 44Ca/ 40Ca ratios (expressed as ??44Ca) within soil and vegetation pools. For both sugar maple and American beech, the Ca isotope compositions of the measured roots and calculated bulk trees were considerably lighter than those of soil pools at these sites, suggesting that the trees were able to preferentially take up light Ca at the root-soil interface. The Ca isotope compositions of three of four root samples were among the lightest values yet reported for terrestrial materials (??44Ca ???-3.95???). Our results further indicate that Ca isotopes were fractionated along the transpiration streams of both tree species with roots having the least ??44Ca values and leaf litter the greatest. An approximately 2??? difference in ??44Ca values between roots and leaf litter of both tree species suggests a persistent fractionation mechanism along the transpiration stream, likely related to Ca binding in wood tissue coupled with internal ion exchange. Finally, our data indicate that differing tree species demand for Ca and soil Ca concentrations together may influence Ca isotope distribution within the trees. Inter-catchment differences in Ca isotope distributions in soils and trees were minor, indicating that the results of our study may have broad transferability to studies of forest ecosystems in catchments developed on crystalline substrates elsewhere. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2019

Evaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China

Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition can readily be monitored. In this study, wall-to-wall maps of species-level AFB were generated for forests in Northeast China by integrating forest inventory data with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and environmental variables through applying the optimal k -nearest neighbor ( k NN) imputation model. By comparing the prediction accuracy of 630 k NN models, we found that the models with random forest (RF) as the distance metric showed the highest accuracy. Compared to the use of single-month MODIS data for September, there was no appreciable improvement for the estimation accuracy of species-level AFB by using multi-month MODIS data. When k > 7, the accuracy improvement of the RF-based k NN models using the single MODIS predictors for September was essentially negligible. Therefore, the k NN model using the RF distance metric, single-month (September) MODIS predictors and k = 7 was the optimal model to impute the species-level AFB for entire Northeast China. Our imputation results showed that average AFB of all species over Northeast China was 101.98 Mg/ha around 2000. Among 17 widespread species, larch was most dominant, with the largest AFB (20.88 Mg/ha), followed by white birch (13.84 Mg/ha). Amur corktree and willow had low AFB (0.91 and 0.96 Mg/ha, respectively). Environmental variables (e.g., climate and topography) had strong relationships with species-level AFB. By integrating forest inventory data and remote sensing data with complete spatial coverage using the optimal k NN model, we successfully mapped the AFB distribution of the 17 tree species over Northeast China. We also evaluated the accuracy of AFB at different spatial scales. The AFB estimation accuracy significantly improved from stand level up to the ecotype level, indicating that the AFB maps generated from this study are more suitable to apply to forest ecosystem models (e.g., LINKAGES) which require species-level attributes at the ecotype scale.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2012

Importance of terrestrial arthropods as subsidies in lowland Neotropical rain forest stream ecosystems

The importance of terrestrial arthropods has been documented in temperate stream ecosystems, but little is known about the magnitude of these inputs in tropical streams. Terrestrial arthropods falling from the canopy of tropical forests may be an important subsidy to tropical stream food webs and could also represent an important flux of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in nutrient-poor headwater streams. We quantified input rates of terrestrial insects in eight streams draining lowland tropical wet forest in Costa Rica. In two focal headwater streams, we also measured capture efficiency by the fish assemblage and quantified terrestrially derived N- and P-excretion relative to stream nutrient uptake rates. Average input rates of terrestrial insects ranged from 5 to 41 mg dry mass/m 2 /d, exceeding previous measurements of aquatic invertebrate secondary production in these study streams, and were relatively consistent year-round, in contrast to values reported in temperate streams. Terrestrial insects accounted for half of the diet of the dominant fish species, Priapicthys annectens. Although terrestrially derived fish excretion was found to be a small flux relative to measured nutrient uptake rates in the focal streams, the efficient capture and processing of terrestrial arthropods by fish made these nutrients available to the local stream ecosystem. This aquatic-terrestrial linkage is likely being decoupled by deforestation in many tropical regions, with largely unknown but potentially important ecological consequences.

Biotropica↗

USGS2013

Conifer seedling recruitment across a gradient from forest to alpine tundra: effects of species, provenance, and site

Background: Seedling germination and survival is a critical control on forest ecosystem boundaries, such as at the alpine–treeline ecotone. In addition, while it is known that species respond individualistically to the same suite of environmental drivers, the potential additional effect of local adaptation on seedling success has not been evaluated. Aims: To determine whether local adaptation may influence the position and movement of forest ecosystem boundaries, we quantified conifer seedling recruitment in common gardens across a subalpine forest to alpine tundra gradient at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Methods: We studied Pinus flexilis and Picea engelmannii grown from seed collected locally at High (3400 m a.s.l.) and Low (3060 m a.s.l.) elevations. We monitored emergence and survival of seeds sown directly into plots and survival of seedlings germinated indoors and transplanted after snowmelt. Results: Emergence and survival through the first growing season was greater for P. flexilis than P. engelmannii and for Low compared with High provenances. Yet survival through the second growing season was similar for both species and provenances. Seedling emergence and survival tended to be greatest in the subalpine forest and lowest in the alpine tundra. Survival was greater for transplants than for field-germinated seedlings. Conclusions: These results suggest that survival through the first few weeks is critical to the establishment of natural germinants. In addition, even small distances between seed sources can have a significant effect on early demographic performance – a factor that has rarely been considered in previous studies of tree recruitment and species range shifts.

Colorado↗

USGS2008

Effects of forest harvesting on ecosystem health in the headwaters of the New York City Water Supply, Catskill Mountains, New York

The effects of forest clearcutting and selective harvesting on forest soils, soil and stream water chemistry, forest regrowth, and aquatic communities were studied in four small headwater catchments. This research was conducted to identify the sensitivity of forested ecosystems to forest disturbance in the northeastern United States. The study area was in the headwaters of the Neversink Reservoir watershed, part of the New York City water supply system, in the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York. Two sub-catchments of the Shelter Creek watershed were selectively harvested, one in its northern half and one more heavily in its southern half in 1995?96, the Dry Creek watershed was clearcut in the winter of 1996?97, and the Clear Creek watershed was left undisturbed and monitored as a control site. Monitoring was conducted from 4 years before the harvests until 4 years after the harvests. Clearcutting caused a large release of nitrate (NO3-) from watershed soils and a concurrent release of inorganic monomeric aluminum (Alim), which is toxic to some aquatic biota. The increased soil NO3- concentrations measured after the harvest could be completely accounted for by the decrease in nitrogen (N) uptake by watershed trees, rather than an increase in N mineralization and nitrification. The large increase in stream water NO3- and Alim concentrations caused 100-percent mortality of caged brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) during the first year after the clearcut and adversely affected macroinvertebrate communities for 2 years after the harvest. Nutrient uptake and biomass accumulation increased in uncut mature trees after the two selective harvests. There was no increase in stream-water NO3- or Alim concentrations, and so there were no adverse affects on macroinvertebrate or trout communities. The amount of tree biomass that can be removed without causing a sharp increase in stream-water NO3- and Alim stream-water concentrations is unknown, but probably depends on the history of forest-disturbance and acid deposition and the level of soil acidification. Results of this study indicate that macroinvertebrate and brook trout communities were sensitive to clearcutting and that deer browsing may affect water quality by suppressing forest regeneration and nutrient uptake. Further studies of selective harvests could identify the harvesting threshold below which changes in water quality and soil chemistry are minimized, and nutrient retention is maximized, thus reducing the damage that logging can inflict on stream and aquatic communities.

New York↗

USGS2014

Multi-trophic resilience of boreal lake ecosystems to forest fires

Fires are the major natural disturbance in the boreal forest, and their frequency and intensity will likely increase as the climate warms. Terrestrial nutrients released by fires may be transported to boreal lakes, stimulating increased primary productivity, which may radiate through multiple trophic levels. Using a before‐after‐control‐impact (BACI) design, with pre‐ and postfire data from burned and unburned areas, we examined effects of a natural fire across several trophic levels of boreal lakes, from nutrient and chlorophyll levels, to macroinvertebrates, to waterbirds. Concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus were not affected by the fire. Chlorophyll a levels were also unaffected, likely reflecting the stable nutrient concentrations. For aquatic invertebrates, we found that densities of three functional feeding groups did not respond to the fire (filterers, gatherers, scrapers), while two groups increased (shredders, predators). Amphipods accounted for 98% of shredder numbers, and we hypothesize that fire‐mediated habitat changes may have favored their generalist feeding and habitat ecology. This increase in amphipods may, in turn, have driven increased predator densities, as amphipods were the most numerous invertebrate in our lakes and are commonly taken as prey. Finally, abundance of waterbird young, which feed primarily on aquatic invertebrates, was not affected by the fire. Overall, ecosystems of our study lakes were largely resilient to forest fires, likely due to their high initial nutrient concentrations and small catchment sizes. Moreover, this resilience spanned multiple trophic levels, a significant result for ecologically similar boreal regions, especially given the high potential for increased fires with future climate change.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

The kelp highway hypothesis: Marine ecology, the coastal migration theory, and the peopling of the Americas

In this article, a collaborative effort between archaeologists and marine ecologists, we discuss the role kelp forest ecosystems may have played in facilitating the movement of maritime peoples from Asia to the Americas near the end of the Pleistocene. Growing in cool nearshore waters along rocky coastlines, kelp forests offer some of the most productive habitats on earth, with high primary productivity, magnified secondary productivity, and three-dimensional habitat supporting a diverse array of marine organisms. Today, extensive kelp forests are found around the North Pacific from Japan to Baja California. After a break in the tropics—where nearshore mangrove forests and coral reefs are highly productive—kelp forests are also found along the Andean Coast of South America. These Pacific Rim kelp forests support or shelter a wealth of shellfish, fish, marine mammals, seabirds, and seaweeds, resources heavily used historically by coastal peoples. By about 16,000 years ago, the North Pacific Coast offered a linear migration route, essentially unobstructed and entirely at sea level, from northeast Asia into the Americas. Recent reconstructions suggest that rising sea levels early in the postglacial created a highly convoluted and island-rich coast along Beringia's southern shore, conditions highly favorable to maritime hunter-gatherers. Along with the terrestrial resources available in adjacent landscapes, kelp forests and other nearshore habitats sheltered similar suites of food resources that required minimal adaptive adjustments for migrating coastal peoples. With reduced wave energy, holdfasts for boats, and productive fishing, these linear kelp forest ecosystems may have provided a kind of “kelp highway” for early maritime peoples colonizing the New World.

Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology↗

USGS2023

Evaluating the influence of the Forestry Reclamation Approach on throughfall quantity in eastern Kentucky

The Appalachian Region is a rich forested ecosystem that has been impacted by coal mining. The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 was enacted to resolve many of the environmental problems caused by surface mining. Reclamation practices resulted in excessive soil compaction and use of nonnative grasses and shrubs that have altered hydrologic processes. The Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) is a best practice for reestablishing forested ecosystems on mined lands in Appalachia. This project evaluated precipitation throughfall in reforested 10- and 20-year-old FRA sites and unmined 100-year-old forest stands as a metric for evaluating the return of forest hydrologic function after reclamation. Stands of coniferous and deciduous trees were evaluated independently for each age class. Throughfall rates were significantly impacted by tree type and age. Throughfall in coniferous trees was less than in deciduous trees, and throughfall in the 10-year-old deciduous trees tended to be highest. Throughfall was also significantly impacted by storm characteristics. Higher rainfall depth and longer duration resulted in significantly larger throughfall depths under both coniferous and deciduous stands, whereas increased intensity increased throughfall depths for the 10- and 100-year-old plots, but not for the 20-year-old plots. As canopy closure occurs in young FRA forests, throughfall rates resemble those reported for young, naturally regenerating forests in the region. Results may help guide management of forested watershed strategies to reduce surface runoff and local flooding on reclaimed surface mined lands.

Kentucky↗

USGS2011

Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [ Bonan , 2008; Chapin et al. , 2008]. According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [ Allen et al. , 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2015

Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality 1 , 2 , 3 . Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality 4 , 5 . Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2015

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects – bark beetles and defoliators – which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree–insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

New Phytologist↗

USGS1998

Beaver lodge distributions and damage assessments in a forested wetland ecosystem in the southern United States

Caddo Lake, USA, a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance, is a lacustrine wetland complex consisting of stands of flooded baldcypress intermixed with open water and emergent wetland habitats. Recently, concern has been expressed over a perceived increase in the beaver population and the impact of beaver on the long-term sustainability of the baldcypress ecosystem. We used intensive beaver lodge surveys to determine the distribution and relative abundance of beaver and the amount, type, and distribution of beaver damage to mature trees and seedlings at Caddo Lake. A total of 229 lodges were located with a combination of aerial and boat/ground surveys. Most lodges were located in open water and edge habitats. About 95% of the lodges were occupied by beaver or nutria. Some form of damage was exhibited by one or more trees near 85% of the lodges. Intensive damage assessments around 35 lodges indicated that most damage to trees, baldcypress in particular, was restricted to peeling or stripping of bark which is believed to have minimal effect on tree survival. Surveys of regeneration indicated that baldcypress seedlings were very abundant; however, over 99.9% were less than 30 cm tall. The lack of recruitment into the larger size classes appears to be a result of high stand densities and water management practices. At this time, the young age and density of the baldcypress forests suggest that recruitment is not a major concern and herbivore damage appears to be having a minimal effect on the forest.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2009

DayCent-Chem simulations of ecological and biogeochemical processes of eight mountain ecosystems in the United States

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) cause complex responses in ecosystems, from fertilization to forest ecosystem decline, freshwater eutrophication to acidification, loss of soil base cations, and alterations of disturbance regimes. DayCent-Chem, an ecosystem simulation model that combines ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant dynamics with aqueous geochemical equilibrium calculations, was developed to address ecosystem responses to combined atmospheric N and S deposition. It is unique among geochemically-based models in its dynamic biological cycling of N and its daily timestep for investigating ecosystem and surface water chemical response to episodic events. The model was applied to eight mountainous watersheds in the United States. The sites represent a gradient of N deposition across locales, from relatively pristine to N-saturated, and a variety of ecosystem types and climates. Overall, the model performed best in predicting stream chemistry for snowmelt-dominated sites. It was more difficult to predict daily stream chemistry for watersheds with deep soils, high amounts of atmospheric deposition, and a large degree of spatial heterogeneity. DayCent-Chem did well in representing plant and soil carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes. Modeled stream nitrate (NO 3 - ) and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations compared well with measurements at all sites, with few exceptions. Simulated daily stream sulfate (SO 4 2- ) concentrations compared well to measured values for sites where SO 4 2- deposition has been low and where SO 4 2- adsorption/desorption reactions did not seem to be important. The concentrations of base cations and silica in streams are highly dependent on the geochemistry and weathering rates of minerals in each catchment, yet these were rarely, if ever, known. Thus, DayCent-Chem could not accurately predict weathering products for some catchments. Additionally, few data were available for exchangeable soil cations or the magnitude of base cation deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Effects of ungulate browsing on forest assisted migration strategies to conserve ecosystem function

Forest managers recognize that proactive management strategies, such as forest assisted migration (FAM) of tree species, intended to accelerate the pace of forest adaptation, may be necessary to maintain resilient forests and combat the stressors of climate change. However, the impact of interactions between climate change and ungulate browsers of trees, both of which have profound effects on the landscape, on the success of FAM efforts is unknown. We used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate assisted migration and browsing by ungulate (white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]) populations on a northern Wisconsin (USA) landscape under alternate climate futures. After accounting for effects of FAM strategy and climate change scenario, simulated ungulate browsing reduced species richness and the proportion of the landscape with tree species preferred by browsers and resulted in more of the landscape developing into novel forest communities that supported fewer ecosystem goods and services. Our results suggest that managers may need to select FAM species less preferred by ungulates or use seedling protection measures to mitigate the negative effects of chronically high ungulate populations in efforts to transition future forests to sustain ecosystem goods and services.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Restoration treatments enhance tree growth and alter climatic constraints during extreme drought

The frequency and severity of drought events are predicted to increase due to anthropogenic climate change, with cascading effects across forested ecosystems. Management activities such as forest thinning and prescribed burning, which are often intended to mitigate fire hazard and restore ecosystem processes, may also help promote tree resistance to drought. However, it is unclear whether these treatments remain effective during the most severe drought conditions or whether their impacts differ across environmental gradients. We used tree-ring data from a system of replicated, long-term (>20 years) experiments in the southwestern United States to evaluate the effects of forest restoration treatments (i.e., evidence-based thinning and burning) on annual growth rates (i.e., basal area increment; BAI) of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), a broadly distributed and heavily managed species in western North America. The study sites were established at the onset of the most extreme drought event in at least 1200 years and span much of the climatic niche of Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine. Across sites, tree-level BAI increased due to treatment, where trees in treated units grew 133.1% faster than trees in paired, untreated units. Likewise, trees in treated units grew an average of 85.6% faster than their pre-treatment baseline levels (1985 to ca. 2000), despite warm, dry conditions in the post-treatment period (ca. 2000–2018). Variation in the local competitive environment promoted variation in BAI, and larger trees were the fastest-growing individuals, irrespective of treatment. Tree thinning and prescribed fire altered the climatic constraints on growth, decreasing the effects of belowground moisture availability and increasing the effects of atmospheric evaporative demand over multi-year timescales. Our results illustrate that restoration treatments can enhance tree-level growth across sites spanning ponderosa pine's climatic niche, even during recent, extreme drought events. However, shifting climatic constraints, combined with predicted increases in evaporative demand in the southwestern United States, suggest that the beneficial effects of such treatments on tree growth may wane over the upcoming decades.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2012

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Connecticut;Labrador;Maine;Massachusetts;New Bruns↗

USGS2003

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Idaho, Montana, Washington↗