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USGS2019

The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2006

Genetic analyses of captive Alala (Corvus hawaiiensis) using AFLP analyses

Population level studies of genetic diversity can provide information about population structure, individual genetic distinctiveness and former population size. They are especially important for rare and threatened species like the Alala, where they can be used to assess extinction risks and evolutionary potential. In an ideal situation multiple methods should be used to detect variation, and these methods should be comparable across studies. In this report, we discuss AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) as a genetic approach for detecting variation in the Alala , describe our findings, and discuss these in relation to mtDNA and microsatellite data reported elsewhere in this same population. AFLP is a technique for DNA fingerprinting that has wide applications. Because little or no prior knowledge of the particular species is required to carry out this method of analysis, AFLP can be used universally across varied taxonomic groups. Within individuals, estimates of diversity or heterozygosity across genomes may be complex because levels of diversity differ between and among genes. One of the more traditional methods of estimating diversity employs the use of codominant markers such as microsatellites. Codominant markers detect each allele at a locus independently. Hence, one can readily distinguish heterozygotes from homozygotes, directly assess allele frequencies and calculate other population level statistics. Dominant markers (for example, AFLP) are scored as either present or absent (null) so heterozygotes cannot be directly distinguished from homozygotes. However, the presence or absence data can be converted to expected heterozygosity estimates which are comparable to those determined by codominant markers. High allelic diversity and heterozygosity inherent in microsatellites make them excellent tools for studies of wild populations and they have been used extensively. One limitation to the use of microsatellites is that heterozygosity estimates are affected by the mutation rate at microsatellite loci, thus introducing a bias. Also, the number of loci that can be studied is frequently limited to fewer than 10. This theoretically represents a maximum of one marker for each of 10 chromosomes. Dominant markers like AFLP allow a larger fraction of the genome to be screened. Large numbers of loci can be screened by AFLP to resolve very small individual differences that can be used for identification of individuals, estimates of pairwise relatedness and, in some cases, for parentage analyses. Since AFLP is a dominant marker (can not distinguish between +/+ homozygote versus +/- heterozygote), it has limitations for parentage analyses. Only when both parents are homozygous for the absence of alleles (-/-) and offspring show a presence (+/+ or +/-) can the parents be excluded. In this case, microsatellites become preferable as they have the potential to exclude individual parents when the other parent is unknown. Another limitation of AFLP is that the loci are generally less polymorphic (only two alleles/locus) than microsatellite loci (often >10 alleles/locus). While generally fewer than 10 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci are enough to exclude and assign parentage, it might require up to 100 or more AFLP loci. While there are pros and cons to different methodologies, the total number of loci evaluated by AFLP generally offsets the limitations imposed due to the dominant nature of this approach and end results between methods are generally comparable. Overall objectives of this study were to evaluate the level of genetic diversity in the captive population of Alala, to compare genetic data with currently available pedigree information, and to determine the extent of relatedness of mating pairs and among founding individuals.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Female persistence during toxicant treatment predicts survival probability of offspring in invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis)

Assessing the long-term efficacy of control methods is a critical component of invasive species management. For example, if traits related to control have significant heritability or are influenced by maternal effects, control methods may lose efficacy over time. The potential for these effects can be evaluated via parent/offspring survival analysis, which concomitantly recasts adaptive management as an evolutionary force for invasive species. However, difficulties can arise when the life history of an invasive is cryptic, precluding direct observations of familial relationships. Genomic pedigree reconstruction can facilitate such analyses by assigning offspring to parents in invasive species for which mating and reproduction are difficult to study. Here, we use genomic pedigree reconstruction to quantify parental longevity and probability of offspring survival for brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) on Guam in a landscape treated with toxic baits simulating application via an aerial delivery system (ADS). To do so, we used 398 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to update an existing multi-generational genomic pedigree for a geographically-closed population of brown treesnakes. This facilitated assignment of parents to juveniles born during three consecutive years of toxic bait application under a simulated aerial treatment program (N = 72). We found that the offspring of dams that persisted until the end of the study displayed greater survival probability (cox proportional hazard model, P < 0.001), yet there was no such effect for sires. This sex-specific relationship between parental longevity and offspring survival indicates that heritability of traits contributing to resistance to ADS is unlikely, but it supports a role of maternal effects that could undermine ADS. Our study identifies potential risks associated with control efforts and also highlights the utility of parent-offspring survival analyses informed by genomic pedigree reconstruction as a tool for adaptive management.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2015

Nest predation research: Recent findings and future perspectives

Nest predation is a key source of selection for birds that has attracted increasing attention from ornithologists. The inclusion of new concepts applicable to nest predation that stem from social information, eavesdropping or physiology has expanded our knowledge considerably. Recent methodological advancements now allow focus on all three players within nest predation interactions: adults, offspring and predators. Indeed, the study of nest predation now forms a vital part of avian research in several fields, including animal behaviour, population ecology, evolution and conservation biology. However, within nest predation research there are important aspects that require further development, such as the comparison between ecological and evolutionary antipredator responses, and the role of anthropogenic change. We hope this review of recent findings and the presentation of new research avenues will encourage researchers to study this important and interesting selective pressure, and ultimately will help us to better understand the biology of birds.

Journal of Ornithology↗

USGS2025

Species nativeness as a cultural paradigm in conservation

Conservation entails cultural practices shaped by our worldviews, values, beliefs, and priorities for our interactions with nature. These inform how we categorize which species we want to occur in which landscapes. In Western conservation organizations, conceptualizations of species ‘belonging’ typically align with a dichotomy of native versus introduced species. This is a cultural paradigm, informed by biological considerations, and it is not uniformly shared across different cultures, resulting in varied conceptualizations of species belonging. These conceptualizations may continue to evolve as socio-ecological systems change over time. Thus, misalignment in perceptions of species belonging can manifest in seemingly intractable conflicts. We apply a cultural evolutionary lens to: (1) consider the social history of the native-introduced dichotomy; (2) describe social and ecological factors causing friction around the dichotomy; (3) explore how conservation can integrate diverse and changing values about species belonging, and (4) make predictions about future socio-ecological change that may shape conservation governance and our categorization of species. In doing so, we encourage conservation scientists and practitioners to practice reflexivity about the cultural nature of conservation and management of introduced species. This application of cultural evolution presents a unique lens for recognizing the inevitability of both social and ecological change and inspires critical consideration of how diverse and changing values might be integrated into, and shape, the future of conservation.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2016

Evolutionary traps as keys to understanding behavioral maladaptation

Evolutionary traps are severe cases of behavioral maladaptation that occur when, due to human activity, the cues animals use to guide their behavior become uncoupled from their fitness consequences. The result is that animals can prefer the most dangerous resources or behaviors, even when better options are available. Traps are increasingly common and represent a significant wildlife conservation problem. Understanding of the more proximate sensory-cognitive mechanisms underpinning traps remains poor, which highlights the need for interdisciplinary and collaborative approaches to investigating traps. Key to advancing basic trap theory and its conservation applications will be the development of appropriate and tractable model systems to investigate the mechanisms that cause traps within species, and how mechanisms vary across species.

Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences↗

USGS2011

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1989

Interaction assessment: Rationale and a test using plants

A non-manipulative method for deriving empirical expressions of population growth parameters from simple field data is presented. The derived expressions can be used to assess the intensity and form of density dependence and interspecies interactions, and have potential for parameterizing more mechanistic models of population dynamics and for use in applied ecology, e.g. land management or environmental risk assessment. The method is based on an assertion of invariant expected fitness across occupied microhabitats. Hence, its success depends upon the degree to which that assertion holds. The assertion, as used here, is broadly applicable. Thus, the method can be expected to yield reliable results even in nonequilibrium communities. Here, we apply the method to data on six desert plant species. Expressions generated from data in one stand, in one year, successfully predict plant cover values in other stands and years. The predicted patterns of plant species interactions are discussed in the light of current knowledge and theorics of desert succession.

Evolutionary Ecology↗

USGS2021

Hazard characterization for alternative intensity measures using the total probability theorem

Since their inception in the 1980s, simplified procedures for the analysis of liquefaction hazards have typically characterized seismic loading using a combination of peak ground acceleration and earthquake magnitude. However, more recent studies suggest that certain evolutionary intensity measures (IMs) such as Arias intensity or cumulative absolute velocity may be more efficient and sufficient predictors of liquefaction triggering and its consequences. Despite this advantage, widespread hazard characterizations for evolutionary IMs are not yet feasible due to a relatively incomplete representation of the ground motion models (GMMs) needed for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Without widely available hazard curves for evolutionary IMs, current design codes often rely on spectral targets for ground motion selection and scaling, which are shown in this study to indirectly result in low precision of evolutionary IMs often associated with liquefaction hazards. This study presents a method to calculate hazard curves for arbitrary intensity measures, such as evolutionary IMs for liquefaction hazard analyses, without requiring an existing GMM. The method involves the conversion of a known IM hazard curve into an alternative IM hazard curve using the total probability theorem. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by comparing hazard curves calculated using the total probability theorem to the results of a PSHA to demonstrate that the proposed method does not result in additional uncertainty under idealized conditions and provides a range of possible hazard values under most practical conditions. The total probability theorem method can be utilized by practitioners and researchers to select ground motion time series that target alternative IMs for liquefaction hazard analyses or other geotechnical applications. This method also allows researchers to investigate the efficiency, sufficiency, and predictability of new, alternative IMs without necessarily requiring GMMs.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2013

Geologic framework of the northern North Carolina, USA inner continental shelf and its influence on coastal evolution

The inner continental shelf off the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina was mapped using sidescan sonar, interferometric swath bathymetry, and high-resolution chirp and boomer subbottom profiling systems. We use this information to describe the shallow stratigraphy, reinterpret formation mechanisms of some shoal features, evaluate local relative sea-levels during the Late Pleistocene, and provide new constraints, via recent bedform evolution, on regional sediment transport patterns. The study area is approximately 290 km long by 11 km wide, extending from False Cape, Virginia to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, in water depths ranging from 6 to 34 m. Late Pleistocene sedimentary units comprise the shallow geologic framework of this region and determine both the morphology of the inner shelf and the distribution of sediment sources and sinks. We identify Pleistocene sedimentary units beneath Diamond Shoals that may have provided a geologic template for the location of modern Cape Hatteras and earlier paleo-capes during the Late Pleistocene. These units indicate shallow marine deposition 15–25 m below present sea-level. The uppermost Pleistocene unit may have been deposited as recently as Marine Isotope Stage 3, although some apparent ages for this timing may be suspect. Paleofluvial valleys incised during the Last Glacial Maximum traverse the inner shelf throughout the study area and dissect the Late Pleistocene units. Sediments deposited in the valleys record the Holocene transgression and provide insight into the evolutionary history of the barrier-estuary system in this region. The relationship between these valleys and adjacent shoal complexes suggests that the paleo-Roanoke River did not form the Albemarle Shelf Valley complex as previously proposed; a major fluvial system is absent and thus makes the formation of this feature enigmatic. Major shoal features in the study area show mobility at decadal to centennial timescales, including nearly a kilometer of shoal migration over the past 134 yr. Sorted bedforms occupy ~ 1000 km2 of seafloor in Raleigh Bay, and indicate regional sediment transport patterns between Capes Hatteras and Lookout that help explain long-term sediment accumulation and morphologic development. Portions of the inner continental shelf with relatively high sediment abundance are characterized by shoals and shoreface-attached ridges, and where sediment is less abundant, the seafloor is dominated by sorted bedforms. These relationships are also observed in other passive margin settings, suggesting a continuum of shelf morphology that may have broad application for interpreting inner shelf sedimentation patterns.

North Carolina↗

USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

Divergence and gene flow in the globally distributed blue-winged ducks

The ability to disperse over long distances can result in a high propensity for colonizing new geographic regions, including uninhabited continents, and lead to lineage diversification via allopatric speciation. However, high vagility can also result in gene flow between otherwise allopatric populations, and in some cases, parapatric or divergence-with-gene-flow models might be more applicable to widely distributed lineages. Here, we use five nuclear introns and the mitochondrial control region along with Bayesian models of isolation with migration to examine divergence, gene flow, and phylogenetic relationships within a cosmopolitan lineage comprising six species, the blue-winged ducks (genus Anas), which inhabit all continents except Antarctica. We found two primary sub-lineages, the globally-distributed shoveler group and the New World blue-winged/cinnamon teal group. The blue-winged/cinnamon sub-lineage is composed of sister taxa from North America and South America, and taxa with parapatric distributions are characterized by low to moderate levels of gene flow. In contrast, our data support strict allopatry for most comparisons within the shovelers. However, we found evidence of gene flow from the migratory, Holarctic northern shoveler (A. clypeata) and the more sedentary, African Cape shoveler (A. smithii) into the Australasian shoveler (A. rhynchotis), although we could not reject strict allopatry. Given the diverse mechanisms of speciation within this complex, the shovelers and blue-winged/cinnamon teals can serve as an effective model system for examining how the genome diverges under different evolutionary processes and how genetic variation is partitioned among highly dispersive taxa.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2024

New diagnostic assessment of MCMC algorithm effectiveness, efficiency, reliability, and controllability

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a robust statistical approach for estimating posterior distributions. However, the significant computational cost associated with MCMC presents a considerable challenge, complicating the selection of an appropriate algorithm tailored to the specific problem at hand. This study introduces a novel and comprehensive framework for evaluating the performance of MCMC algorithms, drawing inspiration from diagnostics used for multi-objective evolutionary algorithms. We employ visualizations to evaluate key algorithmic characteristics: Effectiveness (the ability to accurately find representative posterior modes, quantified by the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) andWasserstein Distance (WD)), Efficiency (the speed of posterior characterization), Reliability (consistency across different random seeds), and Controllability (insensitivity to hyperparameter variation). Evaluating three prominent MCMC algorithms—Metropolis-Hastings (MH), Adaptive Metropolis (AM), and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM)—on high-dimensional and bimodal test problems, our analysis uncovers several insights. First, across algorithms, the number of function evaluations most controls performance on the high-dimensional problem, while the number of chains most controls performance on the bimodal problem. While this suggests similar controllability across algorithms, differences emerge on the other algorithmic characteristics. For high numbers of functions evaluations, AM performs best on the high-dimensional problem, while for low (<5) and high (>15) chain counts, MH and AM perform best on the bimodal problem, as measured by KLD. However, outside these specific cases, DREAM consistently demonstrates superior efficiency and reliability, making it a robust choice for both high-dimensional and multimodal problems. These findings can inform MCMC algorithm selection for Bayesian inference applications, as well as hyperparameterization of the chosen algorithm...

IEEE Access↗

USGS2020

Evaluating contributions of recent tracking-based animal movement ecology to conservation management

The use of animal-born sensors for location-based tracking and bio-logging in terrestrial systems has expanded dramatically in the past 10 years. This rapid expansion has generated new data on how animals interact with and respond to variation in their environment, resulting in important ecological, physiological, and evolutionary insights. Although understanding the finer details of animal locations has important management relevance, applied studies are not prominent in the movement ecology literature. This is despite the long history of applied studies of animal movement and the urgent and growing need for evidence-based conservation guidance, especially in the challenging field of human-wildlife interactions. The goal of this review is to evaluate the realized contribution of tracking-based animal movement ecology to solving specific conservation problems, and to identify barriers that may hinder expansion of that contribution. To do this, we (a) briefly review the history and technologies used in animal tracking and bio-logging, (b) use a series of literature searches to evaluate the frequency with which movement ecology studies are designed to solve specific conservation problems, and (c) use this information to identify challenges that may limit the applied relevance of the field of movement ecology, and to propose pathways to expand that applied relevance. Our literature review quantifies the limited extent to which research in the field of movement ecology is designed to solve specific conservation problems, but also the fact that such studies are slowly becoming more prevalent. We discuss how barriers that limit application of these principles are likely due to constraints imposed by the types of data used commonly in the field. Problems of scale mismatch, error compounding, and data paucity all create challenges that are relevant to the field of movement ecology but may be especially pertinent in applied situations. Finding solutions to these problems will create new opportunity for movement ecologists to contribute to conservation science.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2011

Using a genetic mixture model to study phenotypic traits: Differential fecundity among Yukon river Chinook Salmon

Fecundity is a vital population characteristic that is directly linked to the productivity of fish populations. Historic data from Yukon River (Alaska) Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha suggest that length‐adjusted fecundity differs among populations within the drainage and either is temporally variable or has declined. Yukon River Chinook salmon have been harvested in large‐mesh gill‐net fisheries for decades, and a decline in fecundity was considered a potential evolutionary response to size‐selective exploitation. The implications for fishery conservation and management led us to further investigate the fecundity of Yukon River Chinook salmon populations. Matched observations of fecundity, length, and genotype were collected from a sample of adult females captured from the multipopulation spawning migration near the mouth of the Yukon River in 2008. These data were modeled by using a new mixture model, which was developed by extending the conditional maximum likelihood mixture model that is commonly used to estimate the composition of multipopulation mixtures based on genetic data. The new model facilitates maximum likelihood estimation of stock‐specific fecundity parameters without first using individual assignment to a putative population of origin, thus avoiding potential biases caused by assignment error. The hypothesis that fecundity of Chinook salmon has declined was not supported; this result implies that fecundity exhibits high interannual variability. However, length‐adjusted fecundity estimates decreased as migratory distance increased, and fecundity was more strongly dependent on fish size for populations spawning in the middle and upper portions of the drainage. These findings provide insights into potential constraints on reproductive investment imposed by long migrations and warrant consideration in fisheries management and conservation. The new mixture model extends the utility of genetic markers to new applications and can be easily adapted to study any observable trait or condition that may vary among populations.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2015

Factors affecting individual foraging specialization and temporal diet stability across the range of a large “generalist” apex predator

Individual niche specialization (INS) is increasingly recognized as an important component of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, most studies that have investigated INS have focused on the effects of niche width and inter- and intraspecific competition on INS in small-bodied species for short time periods, with less attention paid to INS in large-bodied reptilian predators and the effects of available prey types on INS. We investigated the prevalence, causes, and consequences of INS in foraging behaviors across different populations of American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ), the dominant aquatic apex predator across the southeast US, using stomach contents and stable isotopes. Gut contents revealed that, over the short term, although alligator populations occupied wide ranges of the INS spectrum, general patterns were apparent. Alligator populations inhabiting lakes exhibited lower INS than coastal populations, likely driven by variation in habitat type and available prey types. Stable isotopes revealed that over longer time spans alligators exhibited remarkably consistent use of variable mixtures of carbon pools (e.g., marine and freshwater food webs). We conclude that INS in large-bodied reptilian predator populations is likely affected by variation in available prey types and habitat heterogeneity, and that INS should be incorporated into management strategies to efficiently meet intended goals. Also, ecological models, which typically do not consider behavioral variability, should include INS to increase model realism and applicability.

Oecologia↗

USGS2013

The biogeographic histories of Pinus edulis and Pinus monophylla over the last 50,000 years

Well-preserved pine needles found in fossil packrat middens document the biogeographic responses of pinyon pines to changing climates over the last 50,000 years. During the full glacial Wisconsinan (MIS2), Pinus monophylla (single-needle pinyon), Pinus edulis (Colorado pinyon), and P. edulis var. fallax (Arizona singleleaf pinyon) all grew along the southern portions of their current ranges. P. monophylla extended from the southern Sierra Nevada across the Mojave Desert to northwestern Arizona. P. edulis grew from northwestern Arizona across central Arizona to New Mexico and south to westernmost Texas. P. edulis var. fallax grew throughout what is now the Sonoran Desert of southern Arizona. Application of the modern climate requirements for these species suggest that winter precipitation at this time was at least 150% of modern, but also that summer precipitation may have been somewhat greater than today, at least at the northernmost end of the Gulf of California. During the Bølling and Allerød intervals P. edulis and P. edulis var. fallax quickly expanded northward over the Mogollon Rim of central Arizona into the Little Colorado River basin and northwestern Arizona. This northerly expansion of the fallax variety during the Allerød interval suggests that temperatures were warmer than most of the latest Wisconsinan and that summer precipitation was at least 120% of modern. After the rapid warming at the start of the Holocene (11.7 ka), P. monophylla and P. edulis populations were reduced in extent as their retreating southerly stands were not immediately replaced by expansion into cooler regions. These populations slowly expanded 300–500 km northward at rates between 20 and 60 m y −1 , reaching some of their current northern limits only within the last millennium. Increases in temperature expected over the next several hundred years will result in a similar reduction in populations unless this warming is ameliorated by favorable increases in precipitation. The consistent needle anatomy and distributions of the three types relative to each other suggest that there has been little evolutionary change discernible from these needles over at least the last 25,000 years.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2026

Understanding natal emigration in group-living carnivores

Dispersal is a critical ecological and evolutionary process, yet the drivers of individual variation in emigration, particularly under human-modified conditions, remain relatively understudied. We investigate the determinants and patterns of emigration in a managed population of cooperative breeders using genetic samples from harvested individuals. We used a novel genetic approach to identify natal emigration through sibship analyses of DNA from harvested grey wolves ( Canis lupus ), a cooperative-breeding species, and evaluated how prey biomass, wolf density, human-caused mortality and sex influenced natal emigration across Idaho, USA, from 2017 to 2023. From our analysis of 182 sibling groups (representing packs), we evaluated natal emigration status for 224 individuals. Of these, 86 were classified as emigrants and 138 as non-dispersers. We assessed how covariates influenced the probability of emigration and evaluated sex differences in apparent dispersal distance. We found no sex differences in emigration propensity or apparent dispersal distance. Emigrants dispersed an average of 81.8 km (range: 30.0–338.9 km) from their inferred natal territories. Emigration was more likely from territories with higher prey biomass and lower wolf density, while human-caused mortality had no detectable effect. We found that ecological drivers, such as prey availability and population density, have a stronger effect on the propensity to emigrate than harvest intensity. These results highlight the importance of resource availability and population dynamics in shaping dispersal patterns in a cooperative breeder. Our study used a novel genetic method to assess natal emigration in a group-living carnivore and developed a framework broadly applicable to social systems where kin structures can be traced to dispersers. Our findings identify landscape-scale conditions that influence dispersal and can inform the management of wild populations.

Idaho↗