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USGS2011

Alaska Geochemical Database (AGDB)-Geochemical data for rock, sediment, soil, mineral, and concentrate sample media

The Alaska Geochemical Database (AGDB) was created and designed to compile and integrate geochemical data from Alaska in order to facilitate geologic mapping, petrologic studies, mineral resource assessments, definition of geochemical baseline values and statistics, environmental impact assessments, and studies in medical geology. This Microsoft Access database serves as a data archive in support of present and future Alaskan geologic and geochemical projects, and contains data tables describing historical and new quantitative and qualitative geochemical analyses. The analytical results were determined by 85 laboratory and field analytical methods on 264,095 rock, sediment, soil, mineral and heavy-mineral concentrate samples. Most samples were collected by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel and analyzed in USGS laboratories or, under contracts, in commercial analytical laboratories. These data represent analyses of samples collected as part of various USGS programs and projects from 1962 to 2009. In addition, mineralogical data from 18,138 nonmagnetic heavy mineral concentrate samples are included in this database. The AGDB includes historical geochemical data originally archived in the USGS Rock Analysis Storage System (RASS) database, used from the mid-1960s through the late 1980s and the USGS PLUTO database used from the mid-1970s through the mid-1990s. All of these data are currently maintained in the Oracle-based National Geochemical Database (NGDB). Retrievals from the NGDB were used to generate most of the AGDB data set. These data were checked for accuracy regarding sample location, sample media type, and analytical methods used. This arduous process of reviewing, verifying and, where necessary, editing all USGS geochemical data resulted in a significantly improved Alaska geochemical dataset. USGS data that were not previously in the NGDB because the data predate the earliest USGS geochemical databases, or were once excluded for programmatic reasons, are included here in the AGDB and will be added to the NGDB. The AGDB data provided here are the most accurate and complete to date, and should be useful for a wide variety of geochemical studies. The AGDB data provided in the linked database may be updated or changed periodically. The data on the DVD and in the data downloads provided with this report are current as of date of publication.

Data Series↗

USGS2024

Prefabricated Zero Ascend Omnispecies (ZAO) modular fish passage modules using advanced manufacturing techniques

The Zero Ascend Omnispecies (ZAO) fish passage attraction module “ZAO Attractor” is a novel system designed to facilitate upstream passage for a broad spectrum of fish species, with a particular focus on American shad and river herring (alewife and/or blueback herring). Combining the use of prefabricated, modular components with advanced manufacturing, the ZAO aims to provide a cost-effective and scalable solution for fish passage attractions across various hydropower sites. The system features a surface level entry, so fish do not need to climb. In addition, it is designed to be adjusted and repositioned to create the most effective attraction flows by managing the outflows from hydropower turbines. Budget Period 1 (BP1) focused on the design and modeling of the ZAO Attractor and demonstrated the engineering feasibility of a modular, prefabricated, hydrodynamically efficient structure with surface level entry and passage. During BP1, the hypothesis was that certain structural adaptations, such as the addition of long fins, could direct turbine outflows to create a desirable downstream flow. Simulations, however, were inconclusive, revealing the complex nature of fish preferences for hydraulic conditions. It was discovered that there were limited published studies on the direct correlation between quantified flow patterns and fish attraction, emphasizing the need for controlled studies to observe and measure these effects. In Budget Period 2 (BP2), controlled studies with live fish were prioritized to address these complexities. A partially scaled ZAO Attractor was evaluated in laboratory conditions using native river water to assess its capability to attract and guide fish. Despite challenges with flume flow conditions and the impact of flume dimensions on flow directionality and velocity, the studies provided insights into fish behavior and preferences, particularly the requirement for a consistent flow stream for migration cues. Adjustments to the fin structure demonstrated potential effectiveness in guiding fish toward the module. However, the hydraulic conditions within the flume environment did not accurately reflect typical in-river scenarios, therefore the results were inconclusive with respect to the optimal system configuration for in-river use. In the future, conducting comprehensive field studies can enhance understanding of the interactions between fish behavior and flow conditions created by the ZAO Attractor. Additionally, a design review is advised, particularly regarding the load scenarios throughout the seasons and positioning of the ZAO Attractor. These studies should continue to refine the design to achieve its intended benefits: economical and effective fish attraction and passage that can be adapted to specific site conditions while allowing for continued energy generation at sites up for re-licensure and adding hydropower generation to previously untapped resources in non-powered dams and new stream reaches. In conclusion, the ZAO fish passage attraction module presents a promising approach to fish passage at hydropower stations, with the potential to balance environmental concerns with renewable energy development. However, further field validation and optimization are necessary to ensure its effectiveness and practicality in real-world applications.

Final Technical Report↗

USGS2011

Review of samples of sediments, tailings, and waters adjacent to the Cactus Queen Gold Mine, Kern County, California

The Cactus Queen Mine is located in the western Mojave Desert in Kern County, California. The Cactus Queen gold-silver (Au-Ag) deposit is similar to other Au-Ag deposits hosted in Miocene volcanic rocks that consist of silicic domes and associated flows, pyroclastic rocks, and subvolcanic intrusions. The volcanic rocks were emplaced onto a basement of Mesozoic silicic intrusive rocks. A part of the Cactus Queen Mine is located on Federal land managed by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM). Staff from the BLM initially sampled the mine area and documented elevated concentrations of arsenic (As) in tailings and sediment. BLM then requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with Chapman University, measure and characterize As and other geochemical constituents in sediment, tailings, and waters on the part of the mine on Federal lands. This report is made in response to the request by the BLM, the lead agency mandated to conduct a Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) - Removal Site Investigation (RSI). The RSI applies to the potential removal of As-contaminated mine waste from the Cactus Queen Mine as a means of reducing As release and exposure to humans and biota. This report summarizes data obtained from field sampling of sediments, mine tailings, and surface waters at the Cactus Queen Mine on January 27, 2008. Our results provide a preliminary assessment of the sources of As and associated chemical constituents that could potentially impact humans and biota.

California↗

USGS2002

Visualization of Flow Alternatives, Lower Missouri River

Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) 'Missouri River Master Water Control Manual' (Master Manual) review has resulted in consideration of many flow alternatives for managing the water in the river (COE, 2001; 1998a). The purpose of this report is to present flow-management alternative model results in a way that can be easily visualized and understood. This report was updated in October 2001 to focus on the specific flow-management alternatives presented by the COE in the 'Master Manual Revised Draft Environmental Impact Statement' (RDEIS; COE, 2001). The original version (February 2000) is available by clicking here. The COE, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), Missouri River states, and Missouri River basin tribes have been participating in discussions concerning water management of the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system (MRMRS), the Missouri River Bank Stabilization and Navigation Project, and the Kansas River reservoir system since 1986. These discussions include general input to the revision of the Master Manual as well as formal consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act. In 2000, the FWS issued a Biological Opinion that prescribed changes to reservoir management on the Missouri River that were believed to be necessary to preclude jeopardy to three endangered species, the pallid sturgeon, piping plover, and interior least tern (USFWS, 2000). The combined Missouri River system is large and complex, including many reservoirs, control structures, and free-flowing reaches extending over a broad region. The ability to assess future impacts of altered management scenarios necessarily involves complex, computational models that attempt to integrate physical, chemical, biological, and economic effects. Graphical visualization of the model output is intended to improve understanding of the differences among flow-management alternatives.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebrask↗

USGS2020

Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares >1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2021

Conservation of northwestern and southwestern pond turtles: Threats, population size estimates, and population viability analysis

Accurate status assessments of long-lived, widely distributed taxa depend on the availability of long-term monitoring data from multiple populations. However, monitoring populations across large temporal and spatial scales is often beyond the scope of any one researcher or research group. Consequently, wildlife managers may be tasked with utilizing limited information from different sources to detect range-wide evidence of population declines and their causes. When assessments need to be made under such constraints, the research and management communities must determine how to extrapolate from variable population data to species-level inferences. Here, using three different approaches, we integrate and analyze data from the peer-reviewed literature and government agency reports to inform conservation for northwestern pond turtles (NPT) Actinemys marmorata and southwestern pond turtles (SPT) Actinemys pallida . Both NPT and SPT are long-lived freshwater turtles distributed along the west coast of the United States and Mexico. Conservation concerns exist for both species; however, SPT may face more severe threats and are thought to exist at lower densities throughout their range than NPT. For each species, we ranked the impacts of 13 potential threats, estimated population sizes, and modeled population viability with and without long-term droughts. Our results suggest that predation of hatchlings by invasive predators, such as American bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, is a high-ranking threat for NPT and SPT. Southwestern pond turtles may also face more severe impacts associated with natural disasters (droughts, wildfires, and floods) than do NPT. Population size estimates from trapping surveys indicate that SPT have smaller population sizes on average than do NPT ( P = 0.0003), suggesting they may be at greater risk of local extirpation. Population viability analysis models revealed that long-term droughts are a key environmental parameter; as the frequency of severe droughts increases with climate change, the likelihood of population recovery decreases, especially when census sizes are low. Given current population trends and vulnerability to natural disasters throughout their range, we suggest that conservation and recovery actions first focus on SPT to prevent further population declines.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2023

Preventing and controlling nonnative species invasions to bend the curve of global freshwater biodiversity loss

The Emergency Recovery Plan for freshwater biodiversity recognizes that addressing nonnative species is one of six principal actions needed to bend the curve in freshwater biodiversity loss. This is because introduction rates of nonnative species continue to accelerate globally and where these species develop invasive populations, they can have severe impacts on freshwater biodiversity. The most effective management measure to protect freshwater biodiversity is to prevent introductions of nonnative species. Should a nonnative species be introduced, however, then its early detection and the implementation of rapid reaction measures can avoid it establishing and dispersing. If these measures are unsuccessful and the species becomes invasive, then control and containment measures can minimize its further spread and impact. Minimizing further spread and impact includes control methods to reduce invader abundance and containment methods such as screening of invaded sites and strict biosecurity to avoid the invader dispersing to neighbouring basins. These management actions have benefitted from developments in invasion risk assessment that can prioritize species according to their invasion risk and, for species already invasive, ensure that management actions are commensurate with assessed risk. The successful management of freshwater nonnative species still requires the overcoming of some implementation challenges, including nonnative species often being a symptom of degraded habitats rather than the main driver of ecological change, and eradication methods often being nonspecies specific. Given the multiple anthropogenic stressors in freshwaters, nonnative species management must work with other restoration strategies if it is to deliver the Emergency Recovery Plan for freshwater biodiversity.

Environmental Reviews↗

USGS2017

The contribution of rice agriculture to methylmercury in surface waters: A review of data from the Sacramento Valley, California

Methylmercury (MeHg) is a bioaccumulative pollutant produced in and exported from flooded soils, including those used for rice ( Oriza sativa L.) production. Using unfiltered aqueous MeHg data from MeHg monitoring programs in the Sacramento River watershed from 1996 to 2007, we assessed the MeHg contribution from rice systems to the Sacramento River. Using a mixed-effects regression analysis, we compared MeHg concentrations in agricultural drainage water from rice-dominated regions (AgDrain) to MeHg concentrations in the Sacramento and Feather Rivers, both upstream and downstream of AgDrain inputs. We also calculated MeHg loads from AgDrains and the Sacramento and Feather Rivers. Seasonally, MeHg concentrations were higher during November through May than during June through October, but the differences varied by location. Relative to upstream, November through May AgDrain least-squares mean MeHg concentration (0.18 ng L −1 , range 0.15–0.23 ng L −1 ) was 2.3-fold higher, while June through October AgDrain mean concentration (0.097 ng L −1 , range 0.6–1.6 ng L −1 ) was not significantly different from upstream. June through October AgDrain MeHg loads contributed 10.7 to 14.8% of the total Sacramento River MeHg load. Missing flow data prevented calculation of the percent contribution of AgDrains in November through May. At sites where calculation was possible, November through May loads made up 70 to 90% of the total annual load. Elevated flow and MeHg concentration in November through May both contribute to the majority of the AgDrain MeHg load occurring during this period. Methylmercury reduction efforts should target elevated November through May MeHg concentrations in AgDrains. However, our findings suggest that the contribution and environmental impact of rice is an order of magnitude lower than previous studies in the California Yolo Bypass.

California↗

USGS2013

Alaska Geochemical Database, Version 2.0 (AGDB2)–Including “best value” data compilations for rock, sediment, soil, mineral, and concentrate sample mediaI

The Alaska Geochemical Database Version 2.0 (AGDB2) contains new geochemical data compilations in which each geologic material sample has one “best value” determination for each analyzed species, greatly improving speed and efficiency of use. Like the Alaska Geochemical Database (AGDB, http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/637/) before it, the AGDB2 was created and designed to compile and integrate geochemical data from Alaska in order to facilitate geologic mapping, petrologic studies, mineral resource assessments, definition of geochemical baseline values and statistics, environmental impact assessments, and studies in medical geology. This relational database, created from the Alaska Geochemical Database (AGDB) that was released in 2011, serves as a data archive in support of present and future Alaskan geologic and geochemical projects, and contains data tables in several different formats describing historical and new quantitative and qualitative geochemical analyses. The analytical results were determined by 85 laboratory and field analytical methods on 264,095 rock, sediment, soil, mineral and heavy-mineral concentrate samples. Most samples were collected by U.S. Geological Survey personnel and analyzed in U.S. Geological Survey laboratories or, under contracts, in commercial analytical laboratories. These data represent analyses of samples collected as part of various U.S. Geological Survey programs and projects from 1962 through 2009. In addition, mineralogical data from 18,138 nonmagnetic heavy-mineral concentrate samples are included in this database. The AGDB2 includes historical geochemical data originally archived in the U.S. Geological Survey Rock Analysis Storage System (RASS) database, used from the mid-1960s through the late 1980s and the U.S. Geological Survey PLUTO database used from the mid-1970s through the mid-1990s. All of these data are currently maintained in the National Geochemical Database (NGDB). Retrievals from the NGDB were used to generate most of the AGDB data set. These data were checked for accuracy regarding sample location, sample media type, and analytical methods used. This arduous process of reviewing, verifying and, where necessary, editing all U.S. Geological Survey geochemical data resulted in a significantly improved Alaska geochemical dataset. USGS data that were not previously in the NGDB because the data predate the earliest U.S. Geological Survey geochemical databases, or were once excluded for programmatic reasons, are included here in the AGDB2 and will be added to the NGDB. The AGDB2 data provided here are the most accurate and complete to date, and should be useful for a wide variety of geochemical studies. The AGDB2 data provided in the linked database may be updated or changed periodically.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Arctic Refuge coastal plain terrestrial wildlife research summaries

In 1980, when the U.S. Congress enacted the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), it also mandated a study of the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Section 1002 of ANILCA stated that a comprehensive inventory of fish and wildlife resources would be conducted on 1.5 million acres of the Arctic Refuge coastal plain (1002 Area). Potential petroleum reserves in the 1002 Area were also to be evaluated from surface geological studies and seismic exploration surveys. Results of these studies and recommendations for future management of the Arctic Refuge coastal plain were to be prepared in a report to Congress. In 1987, the Department of the Interior published the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Resource Assessment - Report and Recommendations to the Congress of the United States and Final Environmental Impact Statement. This report to Congress identified the potential for oil and gas production (updated* most recently by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2001), described the biological resources, and evaluated the potential adverse effects to fish and wildlife resources. The 1987 report analyzed the potential environmental consequences of five management alternatives for the coastal plain, ranging from wilderness designation to opening the entire area to lease for oil and gas developement. The report's summary recommended opening the 1002 Area to an orderly oil and gas leasing program, but cautioned that adverse effects to some wildlife populations were possible. Congress did not act on this recommendation nor any other alternative for the 1002 Area, and scientists continued studies of key wildlife species and habitats on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge and surrounding areas. This report contains updated summaries of those scientific investigations of caribou, muskoxen, predators (grizzly bears, wolves, golden eagles), polar bears, snow geese, and their wildlife habitats. Contributions to this report were made by scientists affiliated with the U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Alaska Department of Fish and Game; University of Alaska-Fairbanks; Canadian Wildlife Service; Yukon Department of Renewable Resources; and the Northwest Territories Department of Resources, Wildlife, and Economic Development. Sections of the report presenting new information on caribou and forage plants were peer-reviewed by three independent, non-affiliated scientists. The remaining sections summarize previously published peer-reviewed scientific papers and were reviewed by a single independent scientist. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collaborated in the publication of this report.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2020

Impacts of periodic dredging on macroinvertebrate prey availability for benthic foraging fishes in central San Francisco Bay, California

Background Because of its importance for species covered under Federal Fishery Management Plans (FMPs), the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has been designated as Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) under the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA; 16 United States Code §18559b). Within this estuary, benthic macroinvertebrate communities provide important prey resources for many economically significant fish species that rely on EFH. Periodic maintenance dredging can impact benthic communities; however, there is a lack of scientific information specific to SFB regarding dredging effects on macroinvertebrates in fish foraging areas. In addition, rates of benthic community recolonization and recovery following dredging and subsequent effects on foraging fish are unknown. For this reason, it is difficult for regulatory and resource agencies to determine the impacts of maintenance dredging. Thus, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the consortium of agencies (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], U.S. Army Corp of Engineers [USACE], San Francisco Regional Water Quality Control Board [SFRWQCB], and San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission [BCDC]) that make up the San Francisco Bay Long Term Management Strategy for Dredging (LTMS) identified a study of dredging impacts on SFB fish foraging habitat as one of their highest priorities in their 2011 Programmatic EFH Agreement (U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2011). The LTMS agencies identified the region of interest as shallow (<13 feet [<4 meters (m)] mean lower low water [MLLW]), soft-bottom (silt/clay soil texture) areas in the Central Bay of SFB that were periodically dredged (every 1–3 years). Fish species of interest were compiled by NMFS and included those managed by the Pacific Groundfish, Pacific Salmon, and Coastal Pelagic FMPs (pursuant to the MSA) as well as those listed under the California State or Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA; 16 U.S.C. §1531–1544) as threatened or endangered. Target species included leopard shark ( Triakis semifasciata ), big skate ( Raja binoculata ), English sole ( Parophrys vetulus ), starry flounder ( Platichthys stellatus) , brown rockfish ( Sebastes auriculatus ), green sturgeon ( Acipenser medirostris ; threatened species under Federal ESA), northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ), longfin smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys, threatened under California ESA), and Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ). In addition, Dungeness crab ( Cancer magister ), California halibut ( Paralichthys californicus ), and white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) also were included because they are substantial contributors to the California State fishery. To address LTMS priorities, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, San Francisco Bay Estuary Field Station (hereafter USGS) conducted a multi-phased project including an initial literature review, study design, pilot study, and implementation of a full study. The overarching goal was to assess the effects of periodic dredge operations (every 1–3 years) on benthic habitat for foraging fish in the Central Bay, with emphasis on the foraging requirements of target fish species and analyses of benthic macroinvertebrates in dredged areas compared to adjacent undredged reference areas. The USGS partnered with University of California, Davis, fisheries expert James Hobbs to synthesize existing knowledge of fish foraging ecology and review benthic infauna community composition in SFB with a focus on the Central Bay. The literature review (Phase I; De La Cruz and others, 2016) addressed key questions identified by the LTMS on benthic foraging fish in the study area, including the following: (1) What are target fish eating? (2) What are the seasonal differences in prey items and macroinvertebrate assemblages? (3) What are the annual differences in prey items and macroinvertebrate assemblages? (4) What are the predominant macroinvertebrate functional groups from the perspective of fish foraging? Phase II consisted of creating a framework for a functional assessment of maintenance dredging effects on foraging fish and drafting a full study design (De La Cruz and others, 2017), which was then tested in the Phase III pilot study. The Phase IV full study incorporated lessons learned from the pilot study. Here we focus on the results of the full study and implications for benthic foraging fishes.

California↗

USGS2011

Measuring the impacts of natural amenities and the US-Mexico Border, on housing values in the Santa Cruz Watershed, using spatially-weighted hedonic modeling

Assessing the sustainability of International policy or urban development requires consideration of the impacts of these decisions on Ecosystem Services, or the values that humans receive from the ecosystem, including market-land price, environmental, and human well-being values. Hedonic modeling helps to identify the market land price, considering the price is determined by multiple factors affecting it. In U.S. portions of the bi-national Santa Cruz Watershed (SCW), situated at the Arizona-Sonora International border, natural amenities like the riparian corridor and green space have been documented as positive amenities that boost local real estate. The goal of this research is to isolate the effects of the US-Mexico border and known environmental or natural amenities or disamenities on housing prices in the binational watershed, while controlling for housing stock characteristics and social-environmental vulnerability. In the ultimate analysis, the mean house values within census blocks will be used to represent local housing stock. A human well-being index that measures people’s socio-environmental vulnerability for the entire SCW is in publication that is based on access to infrastructure, number of bedrooms per house and other social data from the binational census and local colonias database will also be compared. The hedonic pricing method will be applied to statistically estimate a function that relates property values to the variables described. This presentation will provide a synopsis of the quality of life and hedonics literature review used to develop this research agenda. Variables relevant for local environmental management, having significant effects on property values, will be discussed. The final results obtained from this study can be used determine the benefits of preserving or developing land binationally and will be uploaded to the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online Ecosystem Services tool, being created to promote sustainable development in the Borderlands.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

The practice of prediction: What can ecologists learn from applied, ecology-related fields?

The pervasive influence of human induced global environmental change affects biodiversity across the globe, and there is great uncertainty as to how the biosphere will react on short and longer time scales. To adapt to what the future holds and to manage the impacts of global change, scientists need to predict the expected effects with some confidence and communicate these predictions to policy makers. However, recent reviews found that we currently lack a clear understanding of how predictable ecology is, with views seeing it as mostly unpredictable to potentially predictable, at least over short time frames. However, in applied, ecology-related fields predictions are more commonly formulated and reported, as well as evaluated in hindsight, potentially allowing one to define baselines of predictive proficiency in these fields. We searched the literature for representative case studies in these fields and collected information about modeling approaches, target variables of prediction, predictive proficiency achieved, as well as the availability of data to parameterize predictive models. We find that some fields such as epidemiology achieve high predictive proficiency, but even in the more predictive fields proficiency is evaluated in different ways. Both phenomenological and mechanistic approaches are used in most fields, but differences are often small, with no clear superiority of one approach over the other. Data availability is limiting in most fields, with long-term studies being rare and detailed data for parameterizing mechanistic models being in short supply. We suggest that ecologists adopt a more rigorous approach to report and assess predictive proficiency, and embrace the challenges of real world decision making to strengthen the practice of prediction in ecology.

Ecological Complexity↗

USGS2025

Direct effects of pesticides and other grassland management practices on the North American Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus plexippus): A systematic review

This review synthesizes recent scientific literature on the effects of grassland management practices and pesticide applications on monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ), focusing on studies published since the 2020 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Species Status Assessment (SSA). While the SSA highlighted habitat conservation efforts to enhance monarch populations, there has been limited empirical research on the direct effects of these management strategies on monarch survival and fitness. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review to evaluate research published during and after the SSA (2019-2024) on the direct effects of common grassland management practices (mowing, grazing, burning, haying) and pesticides (herbicides, insecticides, fungicides) across monarch life stages. This search identified 29 studies that met our criteria. Of these, only two studies addressed the impacts of grassland management on monarchs, indicating a substantial and important information gap. The other 27 studies reviewed indicate significant risks of pesticide exposure to monarchs, particularly at immature life stages from lethal and sublethal effects. The effects of chronic insecticide exposure, particularly neonicotinoids, are especially critical to consider, as research shows insecticides can result in impairment of growth, development, and reproductive behaviors. Additionally, fungicides pose overlooked risks to monarchs due to their toxicity to non-target organisms. Notably, most studies evaluating pesticide effects were conducted in a laboratory setting and thus it is unclear how these results relate to fieldrealistic exposure, as well as exposure over multiple life history stages and potential synergistic effects of pesticides. Additional relevant information gaps remain, especially on studies of southern migratory paths critical for monarch population persistence. Data gaps at relevant scales for grassland management combined with growing evidence of pesticide persistence and subsequent threats to insects, highlight how more ecologically applicable metrics for monitoring environmental chemicals could help improve understanding of the effects of pesticides on monarchs and characterize contamination of milkweed and nectar resources.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS1989

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2017

Risk assessment for the reintroduction of anadromous salmonids upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams, Northeastern Washington

The Upper Columbia United Tribes (UCUT; Spokane, Colville, Kootenai, Coeur d’Alene, and Kalispel Tribes) and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife want to reintroduce anadromous salmonids to their historical range to restore ecosystem function and lost cultural and spiritual relationships in the upper Columbia River, northeastern Washington. The UCUT contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to assess risks to resident taxa (existing fish populations in the reintroduction area upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams) and reintroduced salmon associated with reintroduction. We developed a risk assessment framework for reintroduction of anadromous salmonids upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams. To accomplish this goal, we applied strategies identified in previous risk assessment frameworks for reintroduction. The risk assessment is an initial step towards an anadromous reintroduction strategy. An initial list of potential donor sources for reintroduction species was developed from previous published sources for Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) donors in the Transboundary Reach of the Columbia River, British Columbia; an ecological risk assessment of upper Columbia River hatchery programs on non-target taxa of concern; and a review of existing hatchery programs During two workshops, we further identified and ranked potential donor sources of anadromous Redband Trout (steelhead; O. mykiss ), Chinook Salmon, Sockeye Salmon ( O. nerka ), and Coho Salmon ( O. kisutch ). We also identified resident fish populations of interest and their primary habitat, location, status, and pathogen concerns to determine the potential risks of reintroduction. Species were deemed of interest based on resource management and potential interactions (that is, genetics, competition, and predation) with introduced species. We developed tables of potential donors by species and characterized potential sources (hatchery and natural origins), populations (individual runs), broodstock management and history, and potential constraints (that is, Endangered Species Act [ESA] listing, Evolutionarily Significant Unit concerns, pathogens, and availability). During the workshops, a group of regional fisheries and topic experts subjectively ranked the relative risks of pathogens, genetic effects, predation, and competition to resident fish and reintroduced salmonids. We assessed the pathogen risk of each potential donor for introducing new pathogens and the increased burden to existing pathogens for resident species upstream of the dams. We considered genetic risks to resident and downstream conspecifics and ecological impacts, including competition for food and space, predator-prey interactions, and ecosystem benefits/impacts. Each reintroduced species donor source was ranked based on abundance/viability (demographic risk to source and feasibility of collection), ancestral/genetic similarity (evolutionary similarity to historical populations), local adaptation (geographic proximity/similarity of source conditions to reintroduction conditions), and life history compatibility (including migration; spawn timing; and relative usage of reservoir, main-stem, or tributary habitats) with environmental conditions in the reintroduction area. We synthesized this information by species for all potential donors, in which an overall score and ranking system was established for decision support in donor selection for reintroduction into the upper Columbia River. We also provided information outside the ranking process by: Identifying predator-prey interactions and competition for food and space among species, Developing a decision support framework for donor selection, and Providing decision support for reintroduction strategies.

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USGS2024

Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

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USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment: Restoration topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are substantial management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions, and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed 10 needs (hereinafter “Needs”) identified under the Restoration topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs for improving restoration success in degraded sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (“Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 371 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Restoration topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: the development of methods to improve seeding success of native plants after fire; evaluation of short- and long-term plant responses relative to biotic and abiotic factors following restoration treatments; assessments of long-term effects on ecosystem processes following conifer removal treatments and development of decision support tools to aid in conifer management; determination of the costs of restoration treatments relative to the benefits to sage-grouse occupancy, survival, and populations; and assessments of the factors which contribute to soil degradation and development of soil enhancement methods that enhance seed germination and seedling survival while resisting nonnative plants. Needs that were not addressed well included: the development of methods for the rapid recovery of sagebrush and native herbaceous plants following wildfire and determination of whether treatments benefit sage-grouse and mitigate impacts from fires; determination of thresholds for successful restoration across a range of environmental conditions and development of decision support tools to assist with restoration effectiveness monitoring; and development and evaluation of the utility of seed transfer zones. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States↗