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Development and use of mathematical models and software frameworks for integrated analysis of agricultural systems and associated water use impacts

The development of appropriate water management strategies requires, in part, a methodology for quantifying and evaluating the impact of water policy decisions on regional stakeholders. In this work, we describe the framework we are developing to enhance the body of resources available to policy makers, farmers, and other community members in their e orts to understand, quantify, and assess the often competing objectives water consumers have with respect to usage. The foundation for the framework is the construction of a simulation-based optimization software tool using two existing software packages. In particular, we couple a robust optimization software suite (DAKOTA) with the USGS MF-OWHM water management simulation tool to provide a flexible software environment that will enable the evaluation of one or multiple (possibly competing) user-defined (or stakeholder) objectives. We introduce the individual software components and outline the communication strategy we defined for the coupled development. We present numerical results for case studies related to crop portfolio management with several defined objectives. The objectives are not optimally satisfied for any single user class, demonstrating the capability of the software tool to aid in the evaluation of a variety of competing interests.

AIMS Agriculture and Food↗

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗

GIS-based identification of areas that have resource potential for lode gold in Alaska

Several comprehensive, data-driven geographic information system (GIS) analyses were conducted to assess prospectivity for lode gold in Alaska. These analyses use available geospatial datasets of lithologic, geochemical, mineral occurrence, and geophysical data to build models for recognizing different types of gold deposits within physiographic units defined by stream drainage basins that are approximately 100 square kilometers in area. The analytical methods successfully delineated areas in the State that contain known lode gold deposits and occurrences, providing some measure of confidence in their ability to predict gold prospectivity in areas of unknown lode gold potential. The results of our analyses indicate high prospectivity in a few areas scattered around the State that are not known to contain lode gold deposits. In addition to assessing the potential for lode gold deposits in Alaska, we designed analyses to distinguish different lode gold deposit types, including orogenic, reduced-intrusion-related, epithermal, and gold-bearing porphyry. These can primarily be differentiated using their unique trace element geochemical fingerprints and elemental enrichments, which reflect the characteristics of the geologic environment and chemistry of the ore-forming fluids. We identified multiple parameters that would discriminate the different types of gold deposits, but owing to the limits of available data, the compositional similarity of ore-forming fluids among some types of lode gold deposits, and overlapping geologic environments, distinguishing deposit types at the state scale in Alaska remains problematic. These limitations resulted in overlapping areas of prospectivity for different deposit types, highlighting the challenges for targeted gold exploration in Alaska. Adjustment of some scoring parameters and recharacterization at smaller scales to highlight individual mineral systems for application of prospectivity analyses may be helpful at a district scale. At a regional scale, the aerial overlap of individual deposit type analyses reinforces confidence in prospectivity for a lode gold resource in a drainage basin. Our analysis for undivided lode gold deposits will be the most practical analysis for landuse decisions in which delineation of areas that have confident potential for gold deposits in general is the primary goal. Data-driven GIS analysis for lode gold potential in Alaska, although limited by the size and uneven coverage of available datasets, objectively indicates prospectivity in areas where exposure is good as well as in areas under cover. The results of our analyses show medium to high prospectivity in areas that surround known deposits, indicating an overall expansion of areas that have the potential to contain gold deposits. Exploration in these areas may help improve the balance between the volume of gold produced in placer districts statewide and the relatively low volume of identified lode resources that contribute to these placer deposits. The results of our analyses can help focus future investigations in areas that show prospectivity but are not known to contain gold deposits, as well as in areas where data are lacking and the geology is poorly understood, and acquisition of additional data may help better define and constrain gold prospectivity.

Alaska↗

Potential minability and economic viability of the Antaramut-Kurtan-Dzoragukh coal field, north-central Armenia; a prefeasibility study

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a coal resource assessment of several areas in Armenia from 1997 to 1999. This report, which presents a prefeasibility study of the economic and mining potential of one coal deposit found and studied by the USGS team, was prepared using all data available at the time of the study and the results of the USGS exploratory work, including core drilling, trenching, coal quality analyses, and other ongoing field work. On the basis of information currently available, it is the authors? opinion that a small surface coal mine having about a 20-year life span could be developed in the Antaramut-Kurtan-Dzoragukh coal field, specifically at the Dzoragukh site. The mining organization selected or created to establish the mine will need to conduct necessary development drilling and other work to establish the final feasibility study for the mine. The company will need to be entrepreneurial, profit oriented, and sensitive to the coal consumer; have an analytical management staff; and focus on employee training, safety, and protection of the environment. It is anticipated that any interested parties will be required to submit detailed mining plans to the appropriate Armenian Government agencies. Further development work will be required to reach a final decision regarding the economic feasibility of the mine. However, available information indicates that a small, economic surface mine can be developed at this locality. The small mine suggested is a typical surface-outcropstripping, contour mining operation. In addition, auger mining is strongly suggested, because the recovery of these low-cost mining reserves will help to ensure that the operation will be a viable, economic enterprise. (Auger mining is a system in which large-diameter boreholes are placed horizontally into the coal seam at the final highwall set as the economic limit for the surface mining operation). A special horizontal boring machine, which can be imported from Russia, is required for auger mining. Although auger-mining coal reserves do exist, the necessary development work will further verify the extent of these reserves and all of the other indicated reserves. The following items are based on the detailed study reported in this publication. Initial investment.?Following an investment of US $85,000 over a 12-month period in mine development drilling and other activities, a decision must be taken regarding further investment in an ongoing mining operation. If the new data support the opening of the surface mine, __________________________ 1Consultant, 6024 Morning Dew Drive, Austin, TX 78749. 2 U.S. Geological Survey, 956 National Center, Reston, VA 20192 1 2 MINABILITY AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY, ANTARAMUT-KURTAN-DZORAGUKH COAL FIELD the $85,000 development cost is amortized over the first 10 years of mine production. If the new data do not support the opening of the mine, the $85,000 is considered a business development expense that may be written off against profits from other operations for income or other tax purposes or simply as a business loss. Total capital required.?The equipment costs will reach a total of $900,500 which will be amortized over a 7-year period to establish estimated coal mining costs. Estimated working capital costs are $300,000, which will be borrowed. Surface mining reserves.?Approximately 840,200 metric tonnes of surface minable coal reserves at 9.3 m3 of overburden per metric tonne of minable coal is indicated. Recovery of the minable coal at 85 percent will yield 714,000 recoverable metric tonnes of marketable as-mined coal. Auger mining reserves.?Auger-mining reserves of 576,000 metric tonnes are indicated. Recoverable auger-mining reserves of 202,000 metric tonnes (at 35-percent recovery) can be expected. Auger-mining production will vary according to the hole size being used, but, in either case, augering is a very profitable addition to the mining oper

Bulletin↗

Contemporary environmental assessment using a viability analysis in a large river system to inform restoration and adaptive management decisions

As large-scale restoration plans for degraded aquatic habitats evolve, it is essential that multiorganizational collaborations have a common vision to achieve consensus on restoration goals. Development of restoration targets and postrestoration monitoring strategies can be focused using a viability analysis framework that supports an adaptive management process. Viability analysis is a robust and accommodating framework, adaptable to any restoration monitoring program and, through the determination of common desired endpoints, can aid consensus building and collaboration across jurisdictional boundaries. In the St. Clair-Detroit River System, which is the Great Lakes connecting channel between southern Lake Huron and western Lake Erie, a viability analysis framework was used to evaluate environmental parameters associated with fisheries and aquatic restoration efforts and to gauge the overall health of the aquatic environment. Steps to derive the viability analysis were as follows: (1) establishing meaningful baseline metrics, (2) identifying information deficiencies, and (3) placing the context of current conditions into a usable format for managers and practitioners. Most geographic segments were designated in overall fair condition, and the conservation targets were designated in either good or fair condition, based on available assessed indicators. Many indicators were unable to be assessed or assigned condition status, which identified research and monitoring data gaps. Metrics associated with native migratory fishes, Lake St. Clair, and islands are generally in better condition than metrics associated with the coastal terrestrial systems, aerial migrants, and coastal wetlands. These results were not unexpected given the highly urbanized landscape of the St. Clair-Detroit River System. Resource managers in the corridor can use these results to identify knowledge gaps, research and restoration priorities, and to assess progress towards meeting restoration goals.

Michigan, Ontario↗

Applications of a broad-spectrum tool for conservation and fisheries analysis: Aquatic gap analysis

Natural resources support all of our social and economic activities, as well as our biological existence. Humans have little control over most of the physical, biological, and sociological conditions dictating the status and capacity of natural resources in any particular area. However, the most rapid and threatening influences on natural resources typically are anthropogenic overuse and degradation. In addition, living natural resources (i.e., organisms) do not respect political boundaries, but are aware of their optimal habitat and environmental conditions. Most organisms have wider spatial ranges than the jurisdictional boundaries of environmental agencies that deal with them; even within those jurisdictions, information is patchy and disconnected. Planning and projecting effects of ecological management are difficult, because many organisms, habitat conditions, and interactions are involved. Conservation and responsible resource use involves wise management and manipulation of the aspects of the environment and biological communities that can be effectively changed. Tools and data sets that provide new insights and analysis capabilities can enhance the ability of resource managers to make wise decisions and plan effective, long-term management strategies. Aquatic gap analysis has been developed to provide those benefits. Gap analysis is more than just the assessment of the match or mis-match (i.e., gaps) between habitats of ecological value and areas with an appropriate level of environmental protection (e.g., refuges, parks, preserves), as the name suggests. Rather, a Gap Analysis project is a process which leads to an organized database of georeferenced information and previously available tools to examine conservation and other ecological issues; it provides a geographic analysis platform that serves as a foundation for aquatic ecological studies. This analytical tool box allows one to conduct assessments of all habitat elements within an area of interest. Aquatic gap analysis naturally focuses on aquatic habitats. The analytical tools are largely based on specification of the species-habitat relations for the system and organism group of interest (Morrison et al. 2003; McKenna et al. 2006; Steen et al. 2006; Sowa et al. 2007). The Great Lakes Regional Aquatic Gap Analysis (GLGap) project focuses primarily on lotic habitat of the U.S. Great Lakes drainage basin and associated states and has been developed to address fish and fisheries issues. These tools are unique because they allow us to address problems at a range of scales from the region to the stream segment and include the ability to predict species specific occurrence or abundance for most of the fish species in the study area. The results and types of questions that can be addressed provide better global understanding of the ecological context within which specific natural resources fit (e.g., neighboring environments and resources, and large and small scale processes). The geographic analysis platform consists of broad and flexible geospatial tools (and associated data) with many potential applications. The objectives of this article are to provide a brief overview of GLGap methods and analysis tools, and demonstrate conservation and planning applications of those data and tools. Although there are many potential applications, we will highlight just three: (1) support for the Eastern Brook Trout Joint Venture (EBTJV), (2) Aquatic Life classification in Wisconsin, and (3) an educational tool that makes use of Google Earth (use of trade or product names does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government) and Internet accessibility.

Gap Analysis Bulletin↗

A watershed-scale approach to tracing metal contamination in the environment

Introduction Public policy during the 1800's encouraged mining in the western United States. Mining on Federal lands played an important role in the growing economy creating national wealth from our abundant and diverse mineral resource base. The common industrial practice from the early days of mining through about 1970 in the U.S. was for mine operators to dispose of the mine wastes and mill tailings in the nearest stream reach or lake. As a result of this contamination, many stream reaches below old mines, mills, and mining districts and some major rivers and lakes no longer support aquatic life. Riparian habitats within these affected watersheds have also been impacted. Often, the water from these affected stream reaches is generally not suitable for drinking, creating a public health hazard. The recent Department of Interior Abandoned Mine Lands ( AML ) Initiative is an effort on the part of the Federal Government to address the adverse environmental impact of these past mining practices on Federal lands. The AML Initiative has adopted a watershed approach to determine those sites that contribute the majority of the contaminants in the watershed. By remediating the largest sources of contamination within the watershed, the impact of metal contamination in the environment within the watershed as a whole is reduced rather than focusing largely on those sites for which principal responsible parties can be found. The scope of the problem of metal contamination in the environment from past mining practices in the coterminous U.S. is addressed in a recent report by Ferderer (1996). Using the USGS 1:2,000,000-scale hydrologic drainage basin boundaries and the USGS Minerals Availability System ( MAS ) data base, he plotted the distribution of 48,000 past-producing metal mines on maps showing the boundaries of lands administered by the various Federal Land Management Agencies ( FLMA ). Census analysis of these data provided an initial screening tool for prioritization of watersheds in the western U.S. A different approach to the scope of the abandoned mine problem (Church et al., 1996a) is shown by the water quality data collected by the States under the Clean Water Act, section 305(b). These data document the stream reaches affected by metals from naturally occurring sources as well as from mining, or mineral resource extraction. Permitted discharges from active industrial and mine sites are not covered in the 305(b) data base. Local citizens and state and federal agencies are all part of the collaborative decision process used to select the drainage basins chosen for the AML Initiative pilot studies. Data gathered by these three entities were brought to bear on the watershed selection process. The USGS prepared data available from Federal data bases in the form of interpretative GIS products. Maps of the states of Colorado (Plumlee et al., 1995) and a similar study of the state of Montana ( USGS , unpublished data) were used to select the Animas watershed in southwestern Colorado and the Boulder watershed southwest of Helena Montana as the pilot study areas for the AML Initiative. Thus, the watersheds selected for study were public decisions made on the basis of available scientific data. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey in the Abandoned Mine Land Initiative is outlined in Buxton et al. (1997). The watershed approach to metals contamination in the environment has been studied in several drainage basins (Church et al., 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996b; Kimball et al., 1995). The underlying principles used to successfully discriminate between sources and to quantify the impact of these sources on the environment are the subject of this report.

Conference Paper↗

Map and map database of susceptibility to slope failure by sliding and earthflow in the Oakland area, California

Map data that predict the varying likelihood of landsliding can help public agencies make informed decisions on land use and zoning. This map, prepared in a geographic information system from a statistical model, estimates the relative likelihood of local slopes to fail by two processes common to an area of diverse geology, terrain, and land use centered on metropolitan Oakland. The model combines the following spatial data: (1) 120 bedrock and surficial geologic-map units, (2) ground slope calculated from a 30-m digital elevation model, (3) an inventory of 6,714 old landslide deposits (not distinguished by age or type of movement and excluding debris flows), and (4) the locations of 1,192 post-1970 landslides that damaged the built environment. The resulting index of likelihood, or susceptibility, plotted as a 1:50,000-scale map, is computed as a continuous variable over a large area (872 km2) at a comparatively fine (30 m) resolution. This new model complements landslide inventories by estimating susceptibility between existing landslide deposits, and improves upon prior susceptibility maps by quantifying the degree of susceptibility within those deposits. Susceptibility is defined for each geologic-map unit as the spatial frequency (areal percentage) of terrain occupied by old landslide deposits, adjusted locally by steepness of the topography. Susceptibility of terrain between the old landslide deposits is read directly from a slope histogram for each geologic-map unit, as the percentage (0.00 to 0.90) of 30-m cells in each one-degree slope interval that coincides with the deposits. Susceptibility within landslide deposits (0.00 to 1.33) is this same percentage raised by a multiplier (1.33) derived from the comparative frequency of recent failures within and outside the old deposits. Positive results from two evaluations of the model encourage its extension to the 10-county San Francisco Bay region and elsewhere. A similar map could be prepared for any area where the three basic constituents, a geologic map, a landslide inventory, and a slope map, are available in digital form. Added predictive power of the new susceptibility model may reside in attributes that remain to be explored?among them seismic shaking, distance to nearest road, and terrain elevation, aspect, relief, and curvature.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

The diamondback terrapin: The biology, ecology, cultural history, and conservation status of an obligate estuarine turtle

Ranging from Cape Cod to nearly the Texas-Mexico border, the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is the only species of North American turtle restricted to estuarine systems. Despite this extensive distribution, its zone of occurrence is very linear, and in places fragmented, resulting in a relatively small total area of occupancy. On a global scale, excluding marine species, few turtles even venture into brackish water on a regular basis, and only two Asian species approach the North American terrapin's dependency on estuarine habitats. Here we describe some of the biological and behavioral adaptations of terrapins that allow them to live in the rather harsh estuarine environment. In this chapter we review the natural and cultural history of this turtle, discuss conservation issues, and provide information on the types of research needed to make sound management decisions for terrapin populations in peril.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

Coastal Louisiana ecosystem assessment and restoration program: The role of ecosystem forecasting in evaluating restoration planning in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain

The development of ecosystem management plans to restore and rehabilitate natural resources requires an understanding of how specific ecological mechanisms regulate the structure and function of ecosystems. To achieve restoration goals, comprehensive plans and engineering designs must effectively change environmental drivers at the regional level to reduce stress conditions at the local environment that are responsible for ecosystem degradation. This document focuses on the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) ecosystem forecasting framework and how it can be used to support the analysis of Louisiana’s coastal restoration plans. Specifically, the framework is designed to (1) develop and incorporate conceptual ecological models that can be used to integrate ecological needs and opportunities with engineering designs, (2) utilize wetland loss rates to describe the most likely “future without” scenario for a variety of ecosystem attributes, (3) estimate broad ecosystem responses to restoration alternatives based on processes associated with succession of geomorphic and ecological systems, and (4) calculate ecological benefits for incorporation into decision support tools associated with large-scale geomorphic and hydrologic processes. This paper provides a brief overview of the spatial framework and modular design of the CLEAR ecosystem forecasting framework and describes in greater detail the evolution of the landscape change module, concepts for its refinement, and how it was utilized in evaluating a coastal restoration alternative proposed in the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Preliminary Draft Master Plan. Such projections by the CLEAR forecasting framework can evaluate processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems with habitat functions that support higher trophic levels.

Louisiana↗

Applications of optical sensors for high-frequency water-quality monitoring and research

The recent commercial availability of in-situ optical sensors, together with new techniques for data collection and analysis, provides the opportunity to monitor a wide range of water-quality constituents over time scales during which environmental conditions actually change. Traditional approaches for data collection (daily to monthly discrete samples) are often limited by high sample collection, processing, and analytical costs, difficult site access, and logistical challenges, particularly for long-term sampling at a large number of sites. Optical sensors that continuously measure constituents in the environment by absorbance or fluorescence properties (Figure 1) have had a long history of use in oceanography for measuring highly resolved concentrations and fluxes of organic matter, nutrients, and algal material. However, much of the work using commercially-available optical sensors in rivers and streams has taken place in only the last few years. Figure 1. [NOT SHOWN] Optical sensor technology is now sufficiently developed to warrant broader application for research and monitoring in coastal and freshwater systems, and the United States Geological Survey (a U.S. science agency) is now using these sensors in a variety of research and monitoring programs to better understand water quality in-situ and in real-time. Examples are numerous and range from the applications of nitrate sensors for calculating loads to estuaries susceptible to hypoxia (Pellerin et al., 2014) to the use of fluorometers to estimate methymercury fluxes (Bergamaschi et al., 2011) and disinfection byproduct formation (Carpenter et al., 2013). Transmitting these data in real-time provides information that can be used for early trend detection, help identify monitoring gaps critical for water management, and provide science-based decision support across a range of issues related to water quality, freshwater ecosystems, and human health. Despite the value of these sensors, collecting data that meet high-quality standards requires investment in and adherence to tested and established methods and protocols for sensor operation and data management (Pellerin et al., 2013). For example, optical sensor measurements can be strongly influenced by a variety of matrix effects, including water temperature, inner filtering from highly colored water, and scattering of light by suspended particles (Downing et al., 2012). Characterizing and correcting sensors for these effects – as well as the continued development of common methodologies and protocols for sensor use – will be critical to ensuring comparable measurements across sites and over time. In addition, collaborative efforts such as the Nutrient Sensor Challenge (www.nutrients-challenge.org) will continue to accelerate the development, production and use of affordable, reliable and accurate sensors for a range of environments. REFERENCES Bergamaschi .B.A., Fleck J.A., Downing B.D., Boss E., Pellerin B.A., Ganju N.K., Schoellhamer D.H., Byington A.A., Heim W.A., Stephenson M., Fujii R. (2011), Methyl mercury dynamics in a tidal wetland quantified using in situ optical measurements. Limnology and Oceanography, 56(4): 1355-1371. Carpenter K.D., Kraus T.E.C., Goldman J.H., Saraceno J., Downing B.D., Bergamaschi B.A., McGhee G., Triplett T. (2013), Sources and Characteristics of Organic Matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, Related to the Formation of Disinfection By-products in Treated Drinking Water: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5001, 78 p. Downing .B.D., Pellerin B.A., Bergamaschi B.A., Saraceno J., Kraus T.E.K. (2012), Seeing the light: The effects of particles, temperature and inner filtering on in situ CDOM fluorescence in rivers and streams. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods, 10: 767-775. Pellerin B.A., Bergamaschi B.A., Downing B.D., Saraceno J., Garrett J.D., Olsen L.D. (2013), Optical Techniques for the Determination of Nitrate in En

Conference Paper↗

Managing data from multiple disciplines, scales, and sites to support synthesis and modeling

The synthesis and modeling of ecological processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales involves bringing together and sharing data from numerous sources. This article describes a data and information system model that facilitates assembling, managing, and sharing diverse data from multiple disciplines, scales, and sites to support integrated ecological studies. Cross-site scientific-domain working groups coordinate the development of data associated with their particular scientific working group, including decisions about data requirements, data to be compiled, data formats, derived data products, and schedules across the sites. The Web-based data and information system consists of nodes for each working group plus a central node that provides data access, project information, data query, and other functionality. The approach incorporates scientists and computer experts in the working groups and provides incentives for individuals to submit documented data to the data and information system.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

An Assessment of the Potential Effects of Aquifer Storage and Recovery on Mercury Cycling in South Florida

Mercury contamination in the environment is a global concern, especially in areas with abundant wetlands, such as south Florida. As the causal factors of this concern improve, scientists find that many factors that do not necessarily affect mercury concentrations, such as flooding and drying cycles, or changes to carbon and sulfate loading, can profoundly affect net mercury toxicity. Especially important are ecological factors that alter the conversion of mercury to methylmercury, which is the most bioaccumulative and toxic form of mercury in the environment. Resource managers, therefore, need to be aware of possible deleterious affects to mercury toxicity that could result from land and water management decisions. Several aspects of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), including the planned Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) program, have the potential to affect the abundance of methylmercury. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collaborated on a study to evaluate how the proposed ASR program may affect mercury cycling and toxicity. This project was conducted as an initial assessment of the possible effects of the CERP ASR program on mercury in the south Florida environment. A twofold approach was employed: field sampling and controlled laboratory benchmark experiments. The field sampling survey collected ground-water samples from the Floridan and surficial aquifer systems for the ASR program to determine existing levels of mercury and methylmercury. Laboratory experiments, on the other hand, were designed to determine how the injected surface water would interact with the aquifer during storage periods. Overall, very low levels of mercury and methylmercury (mean values of 0.41 and 0.07 nanograms per liter, respectively) were observed in ground-water samples collected from the Floridan and surficial aquifer systems. These results indicate that 'recovered water' from the CERP ASR program would not represent a significant additional direct load of mercury and methyl-mercury to ASR 'receiving waters'. Net production of methylmercury, however, can result from additions of sulfate or natural organic carbon. Thus, because the Upper Floridan aquifer generally has elevated concentrations of sulfate (relative to ambient Everglades conditions) and surface waters near Lake Okeechobee (the assumed target for ASR receiving waters) are elevated in organic carbon and sulfate, at least some potential for increased methylmercury production might arise from the release of recovered ASR water to locations in or near the Everglades.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The aquatic real-time monitoring network; in-situ optical sensors for monitoring the nation's water quality

Floods, hurricanes, and longer-term changes in climate and land use can have profound effects on water quality due to shifts in hydrologic flow paths, water residence time, precipitation patterns, connectivity between rivers and uplands, and many other factors. In order to understand and respond to changes in hydrology and water quality, resource managers and policy makers have a need for accurate and early indicators, as well as the ability to assess possible mechanisms and likely outcomes. In-situ optical sensors-those making continuous measurements of constituents by absorbance or fluorescence properties in the environment at timescales of minutes to years-have a long history in oceanography for developing highly resolved concentrations and fluxes, but are not commonly used in freshwater systems. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Aquatic Real-Time Monitoring Network, with high-resolution optical data collection for organic carbon, nutrients, and sediment in large coastal rivers, along with continuous measurements of discharge, water temperature, and dissolved inorganic carbon. The collecting of continuous water-quality data in the Nation?s waterways has revealed temporal trends and spatial patterns in constituents that traditional sampling approaches fail to capture, and will serve a critical role in monitoring, assessment and decision-making in a rapidly changing landscape.

Fact Sheet↗

Strategic conservation planning for the Eastern North Carolina/Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation Team

The Eastern North Carolina/Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation Team (ENCSEVA) is a partnership among local federal agencies and programs with a mission to apply Strategic Habitat Conservation to accomplish priority landscape-level conservation within its geographic region. ENCSEVA seeks to further landscape-scale conservation through collaboration with local partners. To accomplish this mission, ENCSEVA is developing a comprehensive Strategic Habitat Conservation Plan (Plan) to provide guidance for its members, partners, and collaborators by establishing mutual conservation goals, objectives, strategies, and metrics to gauge the success of conservation efforts. Identifying common goals allows the ENCSEVA team to develop strategies that leverage joint resources and are more likely to achieve desired impacts across the landscape. The Plan will also provide an approach for ENCSEVA to meet applied research needs (identify knowledge gaps), foster adaptive management principles, identify conservation priorities, prioritize threats (including potential impacts of climate change), and identify the required capacity to implement strategies to create more resilient landscapes. ENCSEVA seeks to support the overarching goals of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SALCC) and to provide scientific and technical support for conservation at landscape scales as well as inform the management of natural resources in response to shifts in climate, habitat fragmentation and loss, and other landscape-level challenges (South Atlantic LCC 2012). The ENCSEVA ecoregion encompasses the northern third of the SALCC geography and offers a unique opportunity to apply landscape conservation at multiple scales through the guidance of local conservation and natural resource management efforts and by reporting metrics that reflect the effectiveness of those efforts (Figure 1). The Environmental Decision Analysis Team, housed within the North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at North Carolina State University, is assisting the ENCSEVA team in developing a scientifically sound basis for the Plan though the elicitation of expert knowledge and the organization of that knowledge using the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation. The Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation is a framework that is well suited to incorporating decision-making tools such as Structured Decision Making and provides a multi-step process to conceptually organize conservation projects in a manner that enhances the rigor and transparency of expert and knowledge-based plans. It helps define explicit pathways from 2 planned conservation activities and ultimate impact, as well as indicators to measure success (Stem et al. 2005). Specifically, the framework identifies conservation targets, key ecological attributes, threats, and associated indicators to monitor responses given the implementation of a conservation action (Conservation Measures Partnership 2007). This report serves to provide a scientific foundation for the Plan by summarizing the expert opinion of wildlife biologists, ecologists, hydrologists, researchers, natural resource managers, and conservation practitioners regarding five environments (wetlands, riverine systems, estuaries, uplands, and barrier islands) within the ENCSEVA geography. Specifically, this report describes (1) the approach to elicit expert knowledge meant to support the strategic plan, (2) how this knowledge can inform collaborative conservation planning, and (3) a summary of opportunities available for the ENCSEVA team to address threats and impacts associated with climate change within the ecoregion.

Technical Bulletin↗

Estimation of change in populations and communities from monitoring survey data

Monitoring surveys provide fundamental information for use in environmental decision making by permitting assessment of both current population (or community) status and change in status, by providing a historical context of the present status, and by documenting response to ongoing management. Conservation of species and communities has historically been based upon monitoring information, and prioritization of species and habitats for conservation action often requires reliable, quantitative results. Although many monitoring programs exist for populations, species, and communities, as well as for biotic and abiotic features of the environment, estimation of population and community change from surveys can sometimes be controversial, and demands on monitoring information have increased greatly in recent years. Information is often required at multiple spatial scales for use in geographic information systems, and information needs exist for description of regional patterns of change in populations, communities, and ecosystems. Often, attempts are made to meet these needs using information collected for other purposes or at inappropriate geographic scales, leading to information that is difficult to analyze and interpret. In this chapter, we address some of the constraints and issues associated with estimating change in wildlife species and species groups from monitoring surveys, and use bird surveys as our primary examples.

Book chapter↗

EMMMA: A web-based system for environmental mercury mapping, modeling, and analysis

Mercury in our environment - in our air, water, soil, and especially our food - poses significant hazards to human health, particularly for developing fetuses and young children. Because of the importance of this issue and the length of time it has been studied, large and complex data sets of mercury concentrations in various media and associated ancillary data have been generated by many Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. To facilitate efficient and effective use of these data in managing and mitigating human and wildlife exposure to mercury, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences have developed a website for visualizing and studying the distribution of mercury in our environment. The Environmental Mercury Mapping, Modeling, and Analysis (EMMMA) website (http://emmma.usgs.gov) provides health and environmental researchers, managers, and other decision-makers the ability to: 1) Interactively view and access a nationwide collection of environmental mercury data (fish tissue, atmospheric emissions and deposition, stream sediments, soils, and coal) and mercuryrelated data (mine locations); 2) Interactively view and access predictions of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish (NDMMF) at 4,976 sites and 6,829 sampling events (events are unique combinations of site and sampling date) across the United States; and 3) Use interactive mapping and graphing capabilities to visualize spatial and temporal trends and study relationships between mercury and other variables.

Open-File Report↗

Imaging spectroscopy for the detection, assessment and monitoring of natural and anthropogenic hazards

Natural and anthropogenic hazards have the potential to impact all aspects of society including its economy and the environment. Diagnostic data to inform decision-making are critical for hazard management whether for emergency response, routine monitoring or assessments of potential risks. Imaging spectroscopy (IS) has unique contributions to make via the ability to provide some key quantitative diagnostic information. In this paper, we examine a selection of key case histories representing the state of the art to gain an insight into the achievements and perspectives in the use of visible to shortwave infrared IS for the detection, assessment and monitoring of a selection of significant natural and anthropogenic hazards. The selected key case studies examined provide compelling evidence for the use of the IS technology and its ability to contribute diagnostic information currently unattainable from operational spaceborne Earth observation systems. User requirements for the applications were also evaluated. The evaluation showed that the projected launch of spaceborne IS sensors in the near-, mid and long term future, together with the increasing availability, quality and moderate cost of off the shelf sensors, the possibilities to couple unmanned autonomous systems with miniaturized sensors, should be able to meet these requirements. The challenges and opportunities for the scientific community in the future when such data become available will then be ensuring consistency between data from different sensors, developing techniques to efficiently handle, process, integrate and deliver the large volumes of data, and most importantly translating the data to information that meets specific needs of the user community in a form that can be digested/understood by them. The latter is especially important to transforming the technology from a scientific to an operational tool. Additionally, the information must be independently validated using current trusted practices and uncertainties quantified before IS derived measurement can be integrated into operational monitoring services.

Colorado↗