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On November 1, 1978, a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred north of the Pamir Mountains near the Tadjiskistan-Kirghizia border, 150 kilometers east of Garm in Soviet Central Asia. Although the earthquake was felt in Tashkent, Dushanbe, and the Fergana Valley, the epicentral area was uninhabited at that time of year, and no damage was reported.
The intensity scale based on the Modified Mercalli Scale of 1931 (MM scale) measures the effects of seismic shaking. Intensity estimations are often the only representation of the size of an earthquake when small shocks occur in areas far removed from seismograph stations that can record them instrumentally. The impossibility of setting up and maintaining instruments to measure ground motion everywhere that earthquakes occur makes the intensity scale a necessary and useful method to estimate earthquake effects. The effects of seismic shaking are objective. All observers can agree these are real occurences and not subjective speculation. Reliable intensity evaluations are based not on a single factor on any scale but on consistent combinations.
The year 1980 marked the centennial of the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and a decade of the Division's involvement in seismology. Factors which contributed to the formation of a Seismology Group within CDMG included increased concerns for environmental and earthquake safety, interest in earthquake prediction, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and the 1973 publication by CDMG of an urban geology master plan for California. Reasons to be concerned about California's earthquake problem are demonstrated by the accompanying table and the figures. Recent seismicity in California, the Southern California uplift reflecting changes in crustal strain, and other possible earthquake precursors have heightened concern among scientific and governmental groups about the possible occurrence of a major damaging earthquake )M>7) in California.
Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency.
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Modern surveying instruments, such as geodimeters, are capable of measuring distances in the range of 1 to 30 kilometers with remarkable precision. Indeed, the present limitation upon the precision of measurement is not the resolution of the instruments themselves but rather the uncertainty introduced by variations in the velocity of light in the atmosphere between the two endpoints of the measured distance. This capability in precise distance measurement can be applied to earthquake studies by using repeated distance measurements to determine changes in the distance between monuments located along the major faults. Such measurements have been made along the San Andreas fault since late 1959, and, as a result, a wealth of data on crustal deformation in that area is now available. In fact, geodimeter measurements of this type furnish a more stable measure of secular strain (change in the ratio of length to length) than any continuously recording strain meter. The superiority of the geodimeter measurement stems principally from the long base line measured which averages over local inhomogeneities (cracks and joints in the rock, inclusions, and so forth). This article describes the important features of the measurement technique as well as some results for the region of the southern California uplift.
Following the great California earthquake of 1906 H. F. Reid, a contemporary seismologist, proposed the elastic rebound theory which in effect says that earthquake potential arises from the accumulation of elastic strain within the Earth's crust, just as the stretching of a rubberband creates the potential for violent rebound upon rupture. A direct manifestation of this crustal strain accumulation is the change in distance between adjacent points along opposite sides of a fault. In order to measure the rate at which strain is accumulating along California's San Andreas fault, a netwrok of precise survey lines which criss-cross the fault along its entire lenght in the State is periodically resurveyed with very accurate electro-opitcal distance measuring devices called geodimeters.
Earthquake engineering research in Chile has been carried out for more than 30 years. Systematic research is done at the university of Chile in Santiago. Other universities such as the Catholic University, university of Concepcion, and the Federico Santa Maria Technical University have begun to teach and conduct research in earthquake engineering in recent years. The fields of research at the University of Chile include the following: Theoretical and empirical characterization of strong round motion. Installation of strong-motion accelerographs. Capacity of strong ground motion to produce structural damage. Seismic risk. Seismic behavior of reinforced masonry houses and buildings. Seismic design of high-rise buildings. Soil dynamics with emphasis on soil liquefaction and soil stability.
After it was over, it seemed to many, and especially to eyewitnesses like Jack London, that the earthquake and fire had devastated San Francisco. However people were confident that, like the phoeniz, San Francisco would rise from the ashes and regain her palce as the "Imperial City of the West."
From the earliest times, people have been terrified yet fascinated by the workings of the Earth. Indeed records of earthquakes have been kept in China for over 3000 years and for 1500 years in Japan. because of the interior of the Earth is inaccessible, nothing about it could be known with any certainty. For thousands of years, thinkers and writers could base their conclusions on a limited number of observations, some of which were as follows; the Earth was not stable and sometimes shook violently; the earthquakes produced were more frequent in some localities than in others; they were sometimes accompanied by heavy rumblings, fissures in the ground, changes in the level of the land, and tidal waves. Oftentimes earthquakes were associated with volcanoes or "burning mountains."
On a global scale, Canada's west coast lies within the zone of a seismicity that stretches around the Pacific Ocean. In plate tectonic terms, it is dominated by the same right-lateral shearing between the Pacific and American plates that is responsible for the seismicity of California. However, in southern British Columbia the interaction is further complicated. Between the San Andreas fault in California and the Queen Charlotte fault off British Columbia, the Pacific and American plates are separated by the small independent Juan de Fuca plate system. This is spreading away from the Pacific plate and converging with the margin of the Pacific Northwest. The resulting Cascade volcanic chain and its extension into southern British Columbia are the topograhic expression of its subduction.
A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094 ° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26.
On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road.
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The occurrence of two small but widely felt earthquakes in the Eastern United States in 1884 led an editor of the research journal Science to suggest, in the October 3 issue of the magazine, that an "earthquake club" be formed. Its purpose was so that observers and students of "this branch of physical geography" could become acquainted with each other and thus insure the proper collection and collation of their observations. Because this was its intent, he though the club should be "unembarrassed by formal regulations"; consequently, there is no record of whether such an organziation ever existed. But the other suggestion, thata of collecting earthquake records was acted on promptly.
Seismological studies in Latin America were initiated at the beginning of the 20th century, when the first seismological stations were deployed by certain scientific associations. These efforts provided an incentive to the professional community for further activites. Until this date, the only seismic records that existed were historical accounts of catastrophes caused by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This type of information of course, leads to "fantasy" and incorrect descriptions of what has taken place.
Grove Karl Gilbert (1843-1918) was Chief Geologist for the U.S Geological Survey from 1889 to 1892. Still working for the Survey, he was in Berkeley when the 1906 earthquake struck San Francisco. Immediately on waking, he began to study the motion of the light fixture hanging from the ceiling, trying to decipher the direction of Earth waves and to time the intervals between tremors and hoping to gain some insight into the quake's magnitude. What Gilbert called a "tumult of motions and noises" brought him "unalloyed pleasure." He later announced that it was the "natural and legitimate ambition of properly constituted geologist to see a glacier, witness an eruption and feel an earthquake..." Having narrowly missed the 1872 Inyo earthquake (while with the Wheeler Survey) and the 1899 Alaska earthquake (while with the Harriman Expedition), the 63-year-old Gilbert considered the 1906 earthquake to be one fo the highlights of his career. He was to be comissioned by both the State and Federal committees that investigated the earthquake.
With rapid approach of a capability to make reliable earthquake forecasts, it essential that the Federal Government play a strong, positive role in formulating and implementing plans to reduce earthquake hazards. Many steps are being taken in this direction, with the President looking to the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in his Executive Office to provide leadership in establishing and coordinating Federal activities.