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USGS2025

Sounds of Atlantic sturgeon spawning: First description and opportunities for riverine endangered species conservation with passive acoustic monitoring

Effective recovery plans for endangered species rely on insights into species’ ecology to identify risks and develop population recovery strategies. Data gaps pose challenges for many species of conservation concern, particularly those with cryptic behaviors or that occupy difficult-to-access habitats. Sounds produced by these species offer an effective means of observing many such marine and aquatic species, and for this reason, passive acoustic monitoring has emerged as an important study and assessment approach in marine systems. This approach is only just beginning to be applied for aquatic species monitoring in freshwater habitats. Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus , a species of conservation concern along the US East Coast, remains poorly understood due to persistent data gaps despite years of conservation efforts. While sounds have been described for other sturgeons, sounds from Atlantic sturgeon have not yet been reported. Here, we characterized acoustic cues associated with Atlantic sturgeon in the Hudson River, New York, USA, and identified a low-frequency (44 Hz peak frequency) signal strongly correlated with the occurrence of telemetry-tagged adults which enter the river to spawn. We corroborated these efforts with recordings of captive Atlantic sturgeon, in which we detected the same sound type during a spawning period. Our findings provide an opportunity to develop passive acoustic monitoring strategies for Atlantic sturgeon, offering a non-invasive tool for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of spawning activity across their range. We demonstrate potential applications of passive acoustic monitoring to inform sturgeon conservation and management, including characterizing habitat use, identifying cross-species interactions, and providing abundance indices.

New York↗

USGS2024

Illegal shooting of protected nongame birds along power lines coincides with places and times of peak legal recreational shooting

Illegal killing of protected nongame birds is pervasive and can be demographically relevant. In 2021 and 2022, we evaluated spatial and temporal patterns in illegal killing of birds along 69.7 km of power lines in the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in Idaho, USA, to provide insight into potential drivers behind the activity and key information to manage this threat across the American west. The illegal shooting of 8 species of raptors and corvids we documented was clumped both temporally and spatially, as opposed to being randomly distributed across the year and landscape. We found 72 illegally shot birds, most killed during spring months (March to May), coincident with peak time periods of legal recreational shooting activity, and in places with high levels of recreational shooting. We also found evidence of targeted killing of raptors in the conservation area in areas not associated with recreational shooting. Given the numbers of nesting pairs of some local raptor species, this shooting is likely demographically relevant for some but not all local populations. Likewise, with the prevalence of recreational shooting across the American west, the inference we draw is broadly relevant beyond our Idaho study area. The insight our work provides can enable owners of power lines, law enforcement agencies, and resource managers to coordinate in outreach, regulatory, and law enforcement action to manage a threat that may have widespread impacts for some avian species.

Idaho↗

USGS2015

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup ( Aythya ) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2023

Reduction of genetic diversity in ‘Alalā (Hawaiian crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) between the late 1800s and the late 1900s

Genetic and genomic data are increasingly used to aid conservation management of endangered species by providing insights into evolutionary histories, factors associated with extinction risks, and potential for future adaptation. For the ‘Alalā, or Hawaiian crow ( Corvus hawaiiensis ), genetic concerns include negative correlations between inbreeding and hatching success. However, it is unclear if low genetic diversity and inbreeding depression are consequences of a historical population bottleneck, or if ‘Alalā had historically low genetic diversity that predated human influence, perhaps as a result of earlier declines or founding events. In this study, we applied a hybridization-based sequence capture to generate a genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) dataset for comparing historical specimens collected in the 1890s, when ‘Alalā were more numerous, to samples taken between 1973 and 1998, when ‘Alalā population densities were near the lowest documented levels in the wild, prior to all individuals being collected for captive rearing. We found low genome-wide diversity in both sample groups, however, the modern sample group (1973 to 1998 cohort) exhibited relatively fewer polymorphic alleles, a lower proportion of polymorphic loci, and lower observed heterozygosity, consistent with a population decline and potential bottleneck effects. These results combined with a current low population size highlight the importance of continued efforts by conservation managers to mitigate inbreeding and maintain founder representation to preserve what genetic diversity remains.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Drivers and consequences of alternative landscape futures on wildlife distributions in New England, United States

In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over fifty years (2010 to 2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2016

Responses of bat social groups to roost loss: More questions than answers

Though characterization of, and understanding determinants of, social structure in bats is increasing, little is known about how bat social groups respond to disturbance resulting in roost loss. Given that many species of bats roost in ephemeral or transitory resources such as plants, it is clear that bat social groups can tolerate some level of roost loss. Understanding responses of bat social groups to roost loss can provide insight into social structure that have applied conservation use. Herein, we review the existing literature on the effects of disturbance on bat social groups, and present a parameterizable agent-based model that can be used to explore the relationships among roost dynamics, population dynamics, and social behavior.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Modeling the fish community population dynamics and forecasting the eradication success of an exotic fish from an alpine stream

Management actions aimed at eradicating exotic fish species from riverine ecosystems can be better informed by forecasting abilities of mechanistic models. We illustrate this point with an example of the Logan River, Utah, originally populated with endemic cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii utah ), which compete with exotic brown trout ( Salmo trutta ). The coexistence equilibrium was disrupted by a large scale, experimental removal of the exotic species in 2009–2011 (on average, 8.2% of the stock each year), followed by an increase in the density of the native species. We built a spatially-explicit, reaction-diffusion model encompassing four key processes: population growth in heterogeneous habitat, competition, dispersal, and a management action. We calibrated the model with detailed long-term monitoring data (2001–2016) collected along the 35.4-km long river main channel. Our model, although simple, did a remarkable job reproducing the system steady state prior to the management action. Insights gained from the model independent predictions are consistent with available knowledge and indicate that the exotic species is more competitive; however, the native species still occupies more favorable habitat upstream. Dynamic runs of the model also recreated the observed increase of the native species following the management action. The model can simulate two possible distinct long-term outcomes: recovery or eradication of the exotic species. The processing of available knowledge using Bayesian methods allowed us to conclude that the chance for eradication of the invader was low at the beginning of the experimental removal (0.7% in 2009) and increased (20.5% in 2016) by using more recent monitoring data. We show that accessible mathematical and numerical tools can provide highly informative insights for managers (e.g., outcome of their conservation actions), identify knowledge gaps, and provide testable theory for researchers.

Utah↗

USGS2023

Movement dynamics influence population monitoring and adaptive harvest management strategies in migratory birds

Informed population monitoring efforts are essential for sound management of harvested species, and adaptive strategies that provide detailed information to monitoring efforts often require data inputs from complimentary sources. Movement ecology information is seldom directly incorporated into population monitoring or adaptive harvest management strategies, yet can provide valuable information on species distributions, emigration and immigration rates, and aid in determining optimal population monitoring timing. The Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes is a harvested population subject to a stringent adaptive harvest management framework and an annual aerial survey to estimate population abundance, but movements of Sandhill Cranes during survey windows, and subsequent changes to harvest quotas based on their movement and distribution have not been investigated. We used seven years of GPS tracking data to estimate state-specific emigration and immigration rates, using a Bayesian multi-state capture-recapture model, among states within the RMP distribution to understand how seasonal crane movements may influence optimal aerial survey timing. We then leveraged these transition probabilities in conjunction with aerial survey count data to model how changes in aerial survey timing and movement-informed crane distribution would influence the current RMP Sandhill Crane adaptive harvest management model resulting in estimated changes to harvest allocation among states based on Sandhill Crane movement. We found that Sandhill Crane emigration from northern states began to increase the week of the aerial survey in late September, and continued to increase as autumn migration progressed into October. As expected, immigration to southern states began as emigration from northern states increased. Importantly, little movement among states occurred prior to the current aerial survey design timing. Overall, we found that current survey timing and shortly thereafter (∼1 week) did not greatly influence estimates of Sandhill Crane distribution, and did not greatly influence the harvest reallocation to each state until mid to late October (range of −42–+52 tag allocation change), much later than the current survey design would allow. Using GPS locations, we found that optimal population monitoring efforts could be improved to account for both detection and seasonal movements, while minimally influencing current adaptive harvest management strategies to stakeholders. Linking movement ecology with population monitoring efforts and subsequently adaptive harvest management strategies yields insightful information that can be beneficial for conservation planning, decision-making, and optimal species management of a migratory bird.

Colorado, Idaho, Montaha, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

A stage-structured, spatially explicit migration model for Myotis bats: mortality location affects system dynamics

Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers. Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk. Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context. We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior. This model provided insight into network dynamics. We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat ( M. sodalis ), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat ( M. lucifugus ), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species. We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant. These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.

Letters in Biomathematics↗

USGS2025

Speciation genomics in the tiger whiptail lizards ( Aspidoscelis tigris complex)

The transition from small genetic to genome-scale datasets for studying biodiversity has revealed that genetic exchange through introgressive hybridization is a widespread phenomenon in nature. Despite this, a lack of high-quality reference genomes for most non-model species limits our understanding of the impact of this process for many taxonomic groups. This restricts the range of insights that genomic tools can provide for conservation biologists, who often hope to employ genomic datasets to accurately identify historically isolated lineages to protect and to predict their evolutionary fate in the face of environmental change. Tiger whiptail lizards ( Aspidoscelis tigris complex) are an abundant and important ecological component of ecosystems across the southwestern United States. In this study, we assembled and annotated a chromosome-level reference genome for A. t. stejnegeri from coastal California. We then used this reference genome to reconstruct patterns of speciation and admixture within the larger species complex, finding evidence that gene flow is widespread both geographically and across the genome.

northern Mexico, southwestern United States↗

USGS2010

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

Ecology↗

USGS2026

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

USGS2023

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗

USGS2023

Your land, your water—Using research to guide conservation practices on local farms in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Agricultural lands are an important part of the economy and heritage of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and are a focus of conservation activities. Streams and rivers around farms provide communities with drinking water and recreational opportunities, but these local benefits can be impaired by elevated nutrient and sediment concentrations. Compared to inputs from the atmosphere, wastewater, and urban and suburban areas, agricultural lands are the largest source of nutrients and sediment in many Chesapeake Bay streams. Farmers are voluntary conservation partners and have an important role in improving water-quality conditions. This fact sheet summarizes recent scientific insights from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that can help farmers use conservation practices and their knowledge of local site conditions to achieve cleaner water.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2024

Seasonal resource selection of a grassland bird in a dynamic landscape: Importance of a heterogeneous landscape

Habitat loss and fragmentation are a growing threat to wildlife, and a better understanding of these landscape processes is needed to mitigate their effects on species populations. Grassland biomes are among the most imperiled ecosystems in the world, and grassland birds are experiencing significant population declines in North America. Understanding how species respond to differences in resource availabilities across spatiotemporal extents is critical to determining animals' distributions. Here, we investigated the relationship of landscape attributes to spatiotemporal distribution of a grassland bird, the ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ), which has experienced population declines in the Midwest, USA. Pheasant declines have been attributed to two anthropogenic stressors, land use change and climate change. In this study, we evaluated the effect of landscape attributes (composition and configuration) on the home-range size and resource selection of pheasants. We used a 95% fixed kernel estimator to estimate home-range size and identified scales at which landscape features influenced home-range sizes. We quantified landscape features within radii of 250, 500, and 1000 m (i.e., local to broader spatial scales) from the home-range center. We also used resource selection functions to predict the home-range placement (second order) and resource selection within home ranges (third order) of pheasants during winter, pre-nesting, and nesting seasons. We developed multi-scale predictions of pheasant resource selection and identified wetlands, grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands, and small grains as land cover types used by pheasants to fulfill their life requirements. Our results indicated home ranges were more likely to be in a landscape with more CRP, wetlands, and grasslands; more connected grasslands; and a greater number of grassland patches. Pheasants also selected heterogeneous landscape and avoided row crops at both orders of selection. Maintaining habitat heterogeneity, by managing landscapes composed of a high proportion of grasslands and CRP surrounded by small grains and wetlands, could enhance the benefits of local management practices for pheasants. Collectively, insights obtained from our study can advance habitat conservation efforts for similar grassland birds and consequently are of broad utility to biologists and wildlife managers.

South Dakota↗

USGS2026

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how species may persist under future scenarios and can strengthen conservation planning by highlighting opportunities for resilience and targeted management strategies. Trait-based approaches offer a promising path for managers to operationalize adaptive capacity by identifying measurable biological and ecological traits that influence climate change response strategies. However, these insights are rarely integrated into broader vulnerability frameworks that support conservation decision making. We build on previous research to synthesize current understanding of adaptive capacity for three freshwater taxa in North America: fishes, mussels, and crayfishes. Our objectives were to: (1) assess the relevance of adaptive capacity factors for fishes, mussels, and crayfishes; (2) identify key opportunities and gaps in linking trait-based information into adaptive capacity assessments; and (3) illustrate how incorporating adaptive capacity can enhance management decisions for freshwater species under climate change. We used an expert workshop, literature review, and case studies to identify relevant adaptive capacity factors, assess available information, and evaluate inclusion in management contexts. We found that all three taxa had sufficient information to inform adaptive capacity assessments. In addition to existing adaptive capacity factors, we identified Morphology as an important yet underutilized cross-cutting diagnostic category when information was limited. By explicitly linking trait-based approaches with adaptive capacity frameworks, we offer practical guidance for improving climate adaptation strategies and prioritizing management actions for freshwater biodiversity under accelerating global change.

Global Change Biology Communications↗

USGS2021

Novel insights into the genetic population connectivity of transient whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) in Pacific Panama provide crucial data for conservation efforts

The whale shark ( Rhincodon typus ) is an endangered and highly migratory species, of which solitary individuals or aggregations are observed in oceans worldwide and for which conservation efforts are hindered by a lack of comprehensive data on genetic population connectivity. Tissue samples were collected from wandering whale sharks in Pacific Panama to determine genetic diversity, phylogeographic origin, and possible global and local connectivity patterns using a 700–800 bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region gene. Genetic diversity among samples was high, with five new haplotypes and nine polymorphic sites identified among the 15 sequences. Haplotype diversity ( H d = 0.83) and nucleotide diversity (π = 0.00516) were similar to those reported in other studies. Our sequences, in particular haplotypes PTY1 and PTY2 , were similar to those previously reported in the Arabian Gulf and the Western Indian Ocean populations (a novel occurrence in the latter case). Haplotypes PTY3 , PTY4 , and PTY5 were similar to populations in Mexico and the Gulf of California. In contrast, the only populations to which our Panamanian sequences were genetically dissimilar were those from the Atlantic Ocean. The absence of reference sequences in GenBank from southern sites in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, such as Galapagos (Ecuador), Gorgona and Malpelo Islands (Colombia), and Coco Island (Costa Rica), reduced our capacity to genetically define regional patterns. Genetic differentiation and connectivity were also assessed using an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), which showed a similar population structure (five groups) to the neighbor-joining tree. Other population features based on neutrality tests, such as Tajima’s D and Fu’s Fs statistics, showed positive values for Panama of 0.79 and 1.61, respectively. Positive values of these statistics indicate a lack of evidence for population expansion among the sampled individuals. Our results agree with previous reports suggesting that whale sharks can travel over long distances and that transboundary conservation measures may be effective for species protection.

Gulf of Chiriqu↗

USGS2025

A practical framework for identifying genetic subpopulations and ESUs: Insights for IUCN assessments and broader management

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) sets global conservation standards, including the Red List of Threatened Species and the Green Status of Species. Recent analyses showed that genetic diversity has not been effectively considered by IUCN species assessments, despite being fundamental to species’ fitness and adaptive potential. Incorporation of genetic diversity into IUCN assessments can support its successful long-term conservation. To enhance the preservation of genetic diversity, assessments should include genetically meaningful within-species units. Subpopulations are recognized units by the IUCN for protecting natural connectivity, however infrequently evaluated. Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) are currently not recognized as a formal unit by the IUCN. However, incorporating ESUs into conservation frameworks could significantly enhance our capacity to identify and protect adaptive genetic diversity. To facilitate inclusion of these units in IUCN assessments, we outline a widely applicable framework for their identification that uses non-molecular and molecular data for global accessibility.

EcoEvoRxiv↗