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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum in the northern Sawatch Range, Colorado, USA

Temperature-index modeling is used to determine the magnitude of temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range required to maintain steady-state mass balances of six reconstructed glaciers at their extent during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM), dated at ~21 ka. Assuming no significant differences in precipitation compared to modern values, mean annual temperatures in the region were on average 8.8 + 0.5/– 0.8 °C cooler than they are today. Allowing for modest (± 10 cm) increases or decreases in precipitation, required temperature depressions only differ by ±0.2 °C. Temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range is consistent, although slightly greater, with those determined in other ranges in Colorado using similar approaches. The estimates presented here are, however, substantially less than those suggested by several downscaled simulations of global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, that might be due to the need for improved calibration of such downscalings, or the models from which they are derived. Our estimates of LGM temperature depression are considerably greater than that previously determined in the study area and those in two other ranges in Colorado derived using different methodologies, the latter being most likely responsible for the discrepancies.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Effects of climate change and land use on water resources in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The health of the Colorado River watershed is critical to the socioeconomic and ecosystem well-being of the Southwestern United States. Water in springs, streams, and rivers supports a range of aquatic and riparian ecosystems that contain many endangered species. Terrestrial habitats support a wide array of plants and wildlife. In addition, this region is enjoyed by millions of people annually for its recreational and esthetic opportunities. The Colorado River provides water for about 25 million people and is used to irrigate 2.5 million acres of farmland. However, competition for this water is expected to increase as human populations dependent on this water are projected to increase to 38 million by 2020. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate water issues in this region. Drought in the Southwest during 2000-04, caused by both reduced precipitation and a series of the hottest years on record, resulted in streamflows lower than during the 1930s Dust Bowl or the 1950s. Increased temperatures alone are a major factor in reducing surface-water flows in this region. For instance, precipitation received during the winter of 2005 was at the 100-year average. However, low soil moisture and high January-July temperatures resulted in flows that were only 75 percent of average. Climate models predict future warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), which would reduce water available to humans and ecosystems.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS1989

Alluvial and bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin — Eastern Colorado's dual ground-water resource

Large volumes of ground water are contained in alluvial and bedrock aquifers in the semiarid Denver basin of eastern Colorado. The bedrock aquifer, for example, contains 1.2 times as much water as Lake Erie of the Great Lakes, yet it supplies only about 9 percent of the ground water used in the basin. Although this seems to indicate underutilization of this valuable water supply, this is not necessarily the case, for many factors other than the volume of water in the aquifer affect the use of the aquifer. Such factors as climatic conditions, precipitation runoff, geology and water-yielding character of the aquifers, water-level conditions, volume of recharge and discharge, legal and economic constraints, and water-quality conditions can ultimately affect the decision to use ground water. Knowledge of the function and interaction of the various parts of this hydrologic system is important to the proper management and use of the ground-water resources of the region. The semiarid climatic conditions on the Colorado plains produce flash floods of short duration and large peak-flow rates. However, snowmelt runoff from the Rocky Mountains produces the largest volumes of water and is typically of longer duration with smaller peak-flow rates. The alluvial aquifer is recharged easily from both types of runoff and readily stores and transmits the water because it consists of relatively thin deposits of gravel, sand, and clay located in the valleys of principal streams. The bedrock aquifer is recharged less easily because of its greater thickness (as much as 3,000 feet) and prevalent layers of shale which retard the downward movement of water in the formations. Although the bedrock aquifer contains more than 50 times as much water in storage as the alluvial aquifer, it does not store and transmit water as readily as the alluvial aquifer. For example, about 91 percent of the water pumped from wells is obtained from the alluvial aquifer, yet water-level declines generally have not exceeded 40 feet. By contrast, only 9 percent of the water pumped from wells is obtained from the bedrock aquifer, yet water-level declines in this aquifer have exceeded 500 feet in some areas. Depth to water in the alluvial aquifer generally is less than 40 feet, while depth to water in the bedrock aquifer may exceed 1,000 feet in some areas. Cost of pumping water to the surface and cost of maintaining existing supplies in areas of rapidly declining water levels in the bedrock aquifer affect water use. Water use is also affected by the generally poorer quality water found in the alluvial aquifer and, to a lesser extent, by the greater susceptibility of the alluvial aquifer to pollution from surface sources. Because of these factors, the alluvial aquifer is used primarily as a source of irrigation supply, which is the largest water use in the area. The bedrock aquifer is used primarily as a source of domestic or municipal supply, which is the smaller of the two principal uses, even though the bedrock aquifer contains 50 times more stored ground water than the alluvial aquifer.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Potential climate change effects on water tables and pyrite oxidation in headwater catchments in Colorado

A water, energy, and biogeochemical model (WEBMOD) was constructed to simulate hydrology and pyrite oxidation for the period October 1992 through September 1997. The hydrologic model simulates processes in Loch Vale, a 6.6-km² granitic watershed that drains the east side of the Continental Divide. Parameters describing pyrite oxidation were derived sulfate concentrations measured in pore water and stream water in Handcart Gulch, a naturally acidic watershed in the Colorado Mineral Belt. Average monthly differences in precipitation and temperature between current and future climates, as predicted by using six global circulation models and three carbondioxide emission scenarios, were input into WEBMOD to identify possible shifts in the quantity and quality of the water flowing from the watershed for the period 2005 through 2100. Initial results suggest that increased air temperatures will result in earlier snowmelt compared to current conditions. Average sulfate concentrations and acidity in streams draining hydrothermally altered terrain may decrease as water tables rise in response to greater overall precipitation and earlier snowmelt, although a net increase of sulfate load was simulated as a result of greater overall discharge. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase but not enough to offset the increase in precipitation.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2019

The importance of interflow to groundwater recharge in a snowmelt-dominated headwater basin

Understanding the sensitivity of groundwater generation to climate in a mountain system is complicated by the tight coupling of snow dynamics to vegetation and topography. To address these feedbacks, we combine light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived snow observations with an integrated hydrologic model to quantify spatially and temporally distributed water fluxes across varying climate conditions in a Colorado River headwater basin. Results indicate that annual groundwater flow is an important and stable source of stream water. However, interflow decreases during drought as a function increased plant water use and the relative fraction of groundwater to streams increases. Seasonal snowmelt and vegetation water use regulate small recharge rates in the lower portions of the basin, but snowmelt transported via interflow from high mountain ridges toward convergent topographic zones defines preferential recharge in the upper subalpine. Recharge in this zone appears decoupled from annual climate variability and resilient to drought.

Colorado↗
USGS1981

Variations in climatic characteristics as related to evapotranspiration in South Park, central Park County, Colorado

Data collected from May through September in 1977, 1978, and 1979 at three stations were analyzed using an analysis of variance technique to determine variations in climatic characteristics in South Park, Colo. Knowledge of these climatic characteristics will aid in determining the amount of water that may be transferred from agricultural use in South Park to municipal use in the Denver metropolitan area. Daily minimum air temperature, daily average air temperature, cumulative wind, daily relative humidity, and daily solar radiation were statistically different between the three stations at the 1-percent level of significance. Daily maximum air temperature and daily pan evaporation were not significantly different between some stations. Daily precipitation was not significantly different between the three stations. Estimates of potential evapotranspiration made using the Penman equation were not significantly different between the three stations. The lack of spatial variations in the estimated potential evapotranspiration shows that no one climatic characteristic can be used as an indicator of spatial variation of potential evapotranspiration. Large variations in solar radiation between the three stations indicate that solar radiation needs to be measured at sites where evapotranspiration is being determined. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate on temporal variability in streamflow and salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study Region The Upper Colorado River Basin, a critical water source for more than 40 million people in the western United States. Study Focus Potential decreasing streamflow and elevated salinity concentrations threaten this resource. Climate variability has a large and well-studied effect on streamflow in the basin; however, the effect on salinity loading is less understood. This study investigates how snowpack dynamics, precipitation volume, and air temperature affect both streamflow and salinity at the basin scale from water years 1986–2021. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Climate variables explained 54 % of streamflow variability and 40 % of salinity variability across the basin. Both streamflow and salinity yields have declined in response to climate variability, but their response occurs on different timescales. Streamflow is more sensitive to snowpack, whereas salinity yields respond more strongly to antecedent precipitation. The delayed response of salinity yields may obscure the effects of both climate variability and salinity control measures. Residual analysis identified subbasins where the climate-salinity relation deviated from basin-wide patterns, suggesting that possible anthropogenic or other watershed processes may influence salinity loading in these areas. These novel findings underscore the importance of accounting for climate variability when evaluating long-term trends in streamflow and salinity.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Upper Colorado River basin↗
USGS2015

Phenology and climate relationships in aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forest and woodland communities of southwestern Colorado

Trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) occurs over wide geographical, latitudinal, elevational, and environmental gradients, making it a favorable candidate for a study of phenology and climate relationships. Aspen forests and woodlands provide numerous ecosystem services, such as high primary productivity and biodiversity, retention and storage of environmental variables (precipitation, temperature, snow–water equivalent) that affect the spring and fall phenology of the aspen woodland communities of southwestern Colorado. We assessed the land surface phenology of aspen woodlands using two phenology indices, start of season time (SOST) and end of season time (EOST), from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database of conterminous U.S. phenological indicators over an 11-year time period (2001–2011). These indicators were developed with 250 m resolution remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer processed to highlight vegetation response. We compiled data on SOST, EOST, elevation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow water equivalent (SWE) for selected sites having more than 80% cover by aspen woodland communities. In the 11-year time frame of our study, EOST had significant positive correlation with minimum fall temperature and significant negative correlation with fall precipitation. SOST had a significant positive correlation with spring SWE and spring maximum temperature.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Grazing-induced changes to biological soil crust cover mediate hillslope erosion in a long-term exclosure experiment

Dryland ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to erosion generated by livestock grazing. Quantifying this risk across a variety of landscape settings is essential for successful adaptive management, particularly in light of a changing climate. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, there are nearly 25 000 km 2 of rangelands with underlying soils derived from Mancos Shale, an erodible and saline geologic parent material. Salinity is a major concern within the Colorado River watershed, much of which is attributed to runoff and leaching from Mancos Shale deposits. In a 60-yr paired-watershed experiment in western Colorado, we used silt fences to measure differences in saline hillslope erosion, including both total sediment yield and concentrations of primary saline constituents (Na and Se), in watersheds that were either exposed to grazing or where livestock was excluded. After accounting for the strong effects of soil type, slope, and antecedent precipitation, we found that grazing increased sediment loss by ≈50% across our 8-yr time series (0.1–1.5 tn ha −1 ), consistent with levels reported at the watershed scale in early published work from studies at the same location. Eroded sediment Se levels were low and unaffected by grazing history, but Na concentrations were significantly reduced on grazed hillslopes, likely due to depletion of surface Na in soils exposed to chronic soil disturbance by livestock. Variable selection and path analysis identified that biological soil crust (BSC) cover, more than any other variable, explained the differences in sediment yields between grazed and ungrazed watersheds, partially through the enhancement of soil aggregate stability. Our results suggest that BSC cover should be granted heightened consideration in rangeland decision support tools (e.g., state-and-transition models) and that measures to reduce surface disturbance from livestock such as altering the timing or intensity of grazing may be effective for reducing downstream impacts.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Crossing boundaries in a collaborative modeling workspace

There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we present a case study documenting the mechanisms by which managers and scientists collaborated to incorporate climate change projections into Colorado’s State Wildlife Action Plan. A critical component of the project was the use of a collaborative modeling and visualization workspace: the U.S. Geological Survey’s Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM). Using video analysis and pre/post surveys from this case study, we examine how the RAM facilitated cognitive and social processes that co-produced a more salient and credible end product. This case provides practical suggestions to scientists and practitioners who want to implement actionable science.

Society and Natural Resources↗
USGS2026

A little-known piñon from the Mogollon Highlands: Natural history of Pinus x fallax in the Prescott National Forest, Arizona, USA

The Mogollon Highlands is an area of rich biodiversity in central Arizona and western New Mexico. The piñon-juniper/chaparral in the Mogollon Highlands is unique from other piñon-juniper woodlands in both taxonomy and structure. The hybridization of the common piñon there, Pinus × fallax (Mogollon Highlands piñon, MHP), is hypothesized to render it more tolerant to heat and aridity than one of the parent plants, Pinus edulis (Colorado piñon). Yet as Climate Water Deficit continues to increase, so does concern for the future of these woodlands and the MHP. Using demographic data on MHP from the last four decades, we evaluate fecundity and mortality patterns in woodlands where MHP is co-dominant with three Juniperus species and numerous perennial shrubs. Our data indicate that MHP stands continue to reproduce and that mortality is low relative to the more northern P. edulis stands. We also present a simple calculation of historical fire rotation in Prescott National Forest woodlands, estimating a fire rotation of two centuries, far shorter than other piñon-juniper associations. We also explore fire patterns since 1985 across the ecoregion; abundant charcoal indicates small patchy fires were common. In spite of widespread fires, most Mogollon Highlands fires have occurred in Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine) forests, leaving piñon-juniper/chaparral intact. Together these trends indicate that MHP and associated perennial co-dominants are tolerant of current climates. We suggest that hybrid genetic combinations, the complex perennial understory (e.g., actinorhizal shrubs, rich diversity of nurse microsites), and fire patterns are responsible for this resiliency.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

Wildfire, extreme precipitation and debris flows, oh my! Channel response to compounding disturbances in a mountain stream in the Upper Colorado Basin, USA

Compounding changes in climate and human activities stand to increase sediment input to rivers in many landscapes, including via discrete perturbations such as post-fire debris flows. Because sediment supply is a dominant control on river morphology, understanding mountain river responses to sediment regime perturbations is critical to predicting and addressing downstream effects to infrastructure, water security and aquatic habitat. A growing body of literature explores the causes, likelihood, size and composition of post-fire debris flows, but the channel response to these disturbances remains poorly studied. This study used repeat field surveys, time-lapse photographs and pre- and post-disturbance remote sensing datasets to document and analyse space- and time-varying channel response to post-fire debris flows along a steep mountain stream in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA. Specifically, we evaluated channel morphology and bed composition changes, correlations between channel changes and valley and channel attributes, and the relative importance of spring snowmelt versus summer monsoon events. Several cross-sectional channel change types were observed from lidar a month after post-fire debris-flow events, including channelized and braided incision into deposits, incision into the pre-fire channel bed, bank erosion and no change. Channel changes were most correlated with pre-fire channel width, valley width and unit stream power, and these relationships could be tested in other burned locations to evaluate their transferability. Repeat channel surveys before and after snowmelt indicate rapid recovery and channel narrowing following major sediment disturbances, although sediment deposits remained in the channel margins. Together, these results highlight the importance of field and remote sensing-based channel surveys to improve understanding of, and potential to predict, mountain channel response to compounding climate disturbances.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS1992

Pliocene and Pleistocene geologic and climatic evolution in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado

Sediments of the Alamosa Formation spanning the upper part of the Gauss and most of the Matuyama Chrons were recovered by coring in the high (2300 m) San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado. The study site is located at the northern end of the Rio Grande rift. Lithologic changes in the core sediments provide evidence of events leading to integration of the San Luis drainage basin into the Rio Grande. The section, which includes the Huckleberry Ridge Ash (2.02 Ma) and spans the entire Matuyama Chron, contains pollen, and invertebrate and vertebrate fossils. Stable isotope analyses of inorganic and biogenic carbonate taken over most of the core indicate substantially warmer temperatures than occur today in the San Luis Valley. At the end of the Olduvai Subchron, summer precipitation decreased, summer pan evaporation increased, and temperatures increased slightly compared to the earlier climate represented in the core. By the end of the Jaramillo Subchron, however, cold/wet and warm/dry cycles become evident and continue into the cold/wet regime associated with the deep-sea oxygen-isotope Stage 22 glaciation previously determined from outcrops at the same locality. Correspondence between the Hansen Bluff climatic record and the deep-sea oxygen-isotope record (oxygen-isotope stages from about 110-18) is apparent, indicating that climate at Hansen Bluff was responding to global climatic changes.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water↗
USGS2017

Biocrusts enhance soil fertility and Bromus tectorum growth, and interact with warming to influence germination

Background and aims Biocrusts are communities of cyanobacteria, mosses, and/or lichens found in drylands worldwide. Biocrusts are proposed to enhance soil fertility and productivity, but simultaneously act as a barrier to the invasive grass, Bromus tectorum , in western North America. Both biocrusts and B. tectorum are sensitive to climate change drivers, yet how their responses might interact to affect dryland ecosystems is unclear. Methods Using mesocosms with bare soil versus biocrust cover, we germinated B. tectorum seeds collected from warmed, warmed + watered, and ambient temperature plots within a long-term climate change experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We characterized biocrust influences on soil fertility and grass germination, morphology, and chemistry. Results Biocrusts increased soil fertility and B. tectorum biomass, specific leaf area (SLA), and root:shoot ratios. Germination rates were unaffected by mesocosm cover-type. Biocrusts delayed germination timing while also interacting with the warmed treatment to advance, and with the warmed + watered treatment to delay germination. Conclusions Biocrusts promoted B. tectorum growth, likely through positive influence on soil fertility which was elevated in biocrust mesocosms, and interacted with seed treatment-provenance to affect germination. Understanding how anticipated losses of biocrusts will affect invasion dynamics will require further investigation of how plant plasticity/adaptation to specific climate drivers interact with soil and biocrust properties.

Colorado Plateau↗